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How different is Western Europe's saecular timeline?
#61
Quote:S&H proclaimed that their theory could be used to make predictions--they called it the history of America's future.  They identified 4Ts before the Revolution, but they do not dwell on them.  Its for good reason because it is hard to show that these periods were specially significant crises (the Glorious Revolution was significant, but more significant than the English Revolution?).  But the American revolution, Civil War, and New Deal/WWII are the real deal, big time crises in American history noted by slews of observers. 

Do you mean the English Civil War?  The one roughly concurrent with the 30 Year's War on the Continent?  Well, considering that the Glorious Revolution led to a lasting and dramatic change in Britain's geopolitical situation and domestic political arrangements, while the Commonwealth was tossed to the dustheap of history not too long after Oliver Cromwell's death, I don't think the conclusions they drew is that unreasonable after all.


Quote:S&H with their notion of a 4T are setting expectations of a fourth American crisis that will also be the real deal, like the other ones.  Now there are two possibilities.  One is we get the same sort of stuff we have seen for the last 16 years.  The parties trading off every two terms.  Polarization intensifying, the economic situation unchanged etc. In other words a nothing-burger 4T like the Armada.  The other is at some point in the future we get the real deal crisis after all. 


I am always skeptical of false binaries.

Quote:Suppose a real deal crisis occurs over 2023-2036.  It is an obvious social moment which follows the last one (1967-1980) by 56 years.  A 56 year spacing is not out of time for the early turnings. Now for ALL the past 4Ts, the start of the social moment was only a few years after the start of the turning.  If this happens their would be no reason to draw the 4T start as early as 2008, when the action doesn't get underway until 2023.  It would make more sense to date it from 2020, with the crisis of 2020 serving as the trigger.  But this would imply a constellation around now, which can only be accommodated by redrawing the generations.


Sure, if you assume that the events we're waiting for happen outside the acceptable date range, then they do indeed fall outside the date range.  Not sure if you really said anything profound here, Mike.  Rolleyes

Is there any reason to pick those dates over, say, a Crisis Climax occurring from, say, 2020-2024?  Where is this constant talk of the 2030s coming from?

Quote:I already had been here before with 911 as a trigger.  911 began to be questioned as the years passed and nothing happened.  Then came the events of 2008 and it was reset to 2008. Had Clinton won, it would he a continuation of an "Obama era" beginning in 2008.  But Donald Trump is likely to open a new era, which he will begin by undoing as much of the Obama era as he can.  Eras that get undone as soon as their creators exit are not the stuff of 4Ts.  This election looks very much like an attempt to turn the page of History, which, if successful would be consistent with a 4T beginning in 2016.

I think you should spend a little time re-reading the source material.  A catalyst leads to a shift in mood, there is a period of up to a few years where the question of whose hand will be on the tiller is bitterly contested, a regeneracy where one side wins, followed by a Climax a few years after that.  While we don't know how the Trump presidency will turn out, we have not exactly departed from the orthodox script as yet, so I am unsure what you are complaining about.  

Well, that's not true.  I am getting the sense that this sort of hand-waving is simply a displacement of a very typical white, educated liberal reaction to a Trump presidency.  I mean, look, the theory called for eventual single party control helmed by a bunch of Boomers.  Look at Trump, look at his cabinet.  Lot of white guys born in the 40s and 50s, the executive heads of a government controlled by the Republicans to an extent not seen since before the New Deal.  We are still on script, and considering T4T was written in 1997, they really nailed the social mood extent here in the 2010s.  I can (and have) show(n) the chapter "A Fourth Turning Prophecy" to somebody unfamiliar with this sort of stuff and see them gasp (admittedly, getting them to then read the whole book is a bit of trial considering that it's basically an airport book and the first half to two thirds of the book is filled with pablum).


Quote:The only way for the 2008 era to be preserved would be if events happen soon along lines that show continuity with the post 2008 period.

Another financial crisis?  Still a possibility.
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#62
(12-21-2016, 04:49 PM)Mikebert Wrote: What this means is when we head into recession and inequality puts in a short-term peak, events will happen so that inequality continues to decline and it becomes a long term peak. This would be caused by a set of policies that will be put into place in year X.  X will then be the end of the secular cycle AND close to the end of the 4T.  Once the solution is in place, implementing it will produce results that will create consensus on this is the way to go and we will be 1T.  I can think of a number of scenarios where this can happen in just a few years and we could well see real action taken around 2020, right where S&H forecasted it 30 years ago; inequality starts to come down and it becomes crystal clear that we now are in a 1T.  If X falls, say in 2021, then I suppose we will draw the 4T as 2001-2021 (with the 20-20 vision that comes from hindsight). If it is 2024, we might stick with 2008 as a 4T start as this will give a 16-year 4T or maybe we choose 2005, S&H’s original forecast.

If on the other hand nothing happens and we continue to see rising inequality all through the 2020’s then this wipes out that idea.  We can still date the 4T later, stretching out the saeculum, just like the K-cycle is stretched out, but the saeculum won’t be mechanistically responsible for events. The secular cycle will be in the driver’s seat.
If generations really matter, then this shift has to happen earlier rather than later.

I don't see that any of this argues against a 4T at this time.  Success is not mandatory ... nor is outright failure.  Some contests fight through to a draw, or something similar enough to make the concept of crisis resolution academic at best.  If there is no resolution of the current basket of crises, especially inequality and global warming, then this unresolved tension becomes the fodder for the next 2T.   Look at the 2T during the Great Power Saeculum for a model of what this may entail.

The issues of this 4T are global, and all power centers are opposed to resolving them, each its own way.  The real loss is a champion to begin rallying the opposing forces, but none has emerged with enough gravitas to get results.  During a 2T, practical solutions are not on the agenda, so that's much a problem.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#63
(12-22-2016, 01:40 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(12-22-2016, 08:50 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: So, nothing actually invalidating the idea of regular saeculum ending in 2025+/-5, it just doesn't fit in with your pet theories and indicators.  Got it.

An end around 2025 isn't very far off.  One around 2035 is...

What is supposed to happen in a 4T just isn't happening.  It should not be this hard to see it.  Yes I can re-draw the Silent, Boomers, Xers, and Millies to have them born later.  And then yep you can get a 4T that ends in 2030 or 2035.  But if you do that you will find that Donald Trump, Bill and Hillary Clinton and George Bush are Silents after all. But this sort of destroys the notion that generations are an independent entity, that one knows what generation he falls into. 

4Ts only guarantee conflict, not resolution.  Do you think that the political environment can be any more oppositional without chaos erupting?  We may have achieved a balance of terror this time, with neither side able to move forward, and the risk of breaking the china just to make changes is simply too great in this nuclear age.

Internal struggles pit friends, neighbors and family members against each other.  We may be unable to take that step this time.  It may take an external event, like the impending doom of climate change, to trigger real change, and we're not there yet.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#64
(12-27-2016, 04:46 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(12-23-2016, 12:17 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:
(12-23-2016, 11:43 AM)Mikebert Wrote: 2008 seems plausible as a 4T start for the same reasons 911 seemed plausible until 2008 displaced it as a bigger event more pregnant with possibility.  Nothing on the scale of 2008 has happened since 2008, yet.  But we haven't had a recession since 2008.  We haven't seem what the post-2008 economy does when faced with a cyclical downturn.  If we get another financial crisis or other big debacle then 2008 will no longer be seen as the special thing it appears to be now.

I have no objection to the notion of turnings as an analog process defined by these shifts in mood and generationally constellations, with the big headline events useful markers, nothing more.  That being said you're still just engaging in hand-waving.  In what way has the course of recent events departed from the 4T script as laid out by S & H?  Why are we "running out of time" for it to be valid?
S&H proclaimed that their theory could be used to make predictions--they called it the history of America's future.  They identified 4Ts before the Revolution, but they do not dwell on them.  Its for good reason because it is hard to show that these periods were specially significant crises (the Glorious Revolution was significant, but more significant than the English Revolution?).  But the American revolution, Civil War, and New Deal/WWII are the real deal, big time crises in American history noted by slews of observers. 

S&H with their notion of a 4T are setting expectations of a fourth American crisis that will also be the real deal, like the other ones.  Now there are two possibilities.  One is we get the same sort of stuff we have seen for the last 16 years.  The parties trading off every two terms.  Polarization intensifying, the economic situation unchanged etc. In other words a nothing-burger 4T like the Armada.  The other is at some point in the future we get the real deal crisis after all.  

Suppose a real deal crisis occurs over 2023-2036.  It is an obvious social moment which follows the last one (1967-1980) by 56 years.  A 56 year spacing is not out of time for the early turnings. Now for ALL the past 4Ts, the start of the social moment was only a few years after the start of the turning.  If this happens their would be no reason to draw the 4T start as early as 2008, when the action doesn't get underway until 2023.  It would make more sense to date it from 2020, with the crisis of 2020 serving as the trigger.  But this would imply a constellation around now, which can only be accommodated by redrawing the generations.

I already had been here before with 911 as a trigger.  911 began to be questioned as the years passed and nothing happened.  Then came the events of 2008 and it was reset to 2008. Had Clinton won, it would he a continuation of an "Obama era" beginning in 2008.  But Donald Trump is likely to open a new era, which he will begin by undoing as much of the Obama era as he can.  Eras that get undone as soon as their creators exit are not the stuff of 4Ts.  This election looks very much like an attempt to turn the page of History, which, if successful would be consistent with a 4T beginning in 2016.

The only way for the 2008 era to be preserved would be if events happen soon along lines that show continuity with the post 2008 period.

Mike, I think one issue here is that you are interpreting the election results, here, in a too superficial way. If you look closely, a lot of the things that resulted on Trump's victory have their origin in the 2008 Crash. The conservative populism of Trump has the same roots as the Tea Party, the backlash against TARP. On the Left, the anger against the Democratic Party establishment, the Sanders campaign, the deep dislike of Clinton, and the depressed voter turnout this November on the Democratic side from people's dislike of Clinton, also has it's roots in the backlash against TARP.

So it all goes back to 2008.
#MakeTheDemocratsGreatAgain
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#65
(12-28-2016, 06:20 AM)David Horn Wrote: 4Ts only guarantee conflict, not resolution.  Do you think that the political environment can be any more oppositional without chaos erupting?  We may have achieved a balance of terror this time, with neither side able to move forward, and the risk of breaking the china just to make changes is simply too great in this nuclear age.

Interesting concepts.  I've been mulling this from a different perspective - how technology might be impacting a 4T. 

If we take a common theme of past crises involving people rising up in some way against oppressive leadership/government, domestic or foreign, that by definition involves acts of subversion.  In our current day & age, that is a heck of a lot harder to accomplish - law enforcement, surveillance, social media, etc have created an environment where any acts will have a spotlight shone on them immediately ... while that can be good for "spreading the word", it makes it difficult for public sentiment to coalesce around any rebellious ideas ... esp. if the state has influence over how it's positioned in the media (e.g. criminal acts vs building of a movement).

It's not forever tho ... I suspect that if the state tries to get too much control it won't matter, technology just delays the inevitable - some sort of rationalization between state power and the will of the people.  But those delays can turn what otherwise would be a calm, reason-based process into a much more confrontational and violent one.

Overall I still believe that TFT is based on a valid framework.  I'm not sold though on it's ability to predict future events, other than how the mood of the people changes over time.
"But there's a difference between error and dishonesty, and it's not a trivial difference." - Ben Greenman
"Relax, it'll be all right, and by that I mean it will first get worse."
"How was I supposed to know that there'd be consequences for my actions?" - Gina Linetti
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#66
(08-21-2016, 06:33 PM)Remy Renault Wrote: Even though the US and Western Europe are more or less in alignment, sometimes I feel the dates of certain turnings differ slightly depending on what side of the pond you're on. For instance, even if the American 2T lasted from 1965-1980, in Western Europe I think it was more late fifties to mid-seventies rather than mid sixties to early eighties like in the US. So if anything, Europe had a really f***ing long 3T. In Western Europe the "Sixties" were basically over before they officially ended according to the calendar whereas they lasted until about 1973 in the US. Or maybe it was only France and Italy who experienced their respective 2Ts ahead of schedule, say from 1959-1975, whereas the UK and Germany experienced theirs at roughly the same time as the US. I don't know...

But I think it's safe to say the 2T officially ended in Italy the night Pier Paolo Pasolini got murdered.

I think its obvious, the dates for the turnings between the US and Western Europe are very much in aligment. We have the 1T starting in 1948/9. In West Germany we have 1948 the Währungsreform (currency reform) and 1949 the foudation of the Federal Republic (were the first is in the german mindset more important then the later), in Italy the election of 1948 which stabilize the first Republic. I admit France is a bit complicated, but the economic recovering and the isolation of the communists also starts around 1947/8. That France has still to deal witha lot of leftover problems from the 4T is a result of Vichy, which coloboration tarnished the french hero generation and led to a restauration of the old 3T elite, till the Gaullists took over.
The 2T starts 1967/8 with the emerging youth(prophet) revolt. May 68 in Paris is definitly a important date.
1987 in West Germany, 1988 in France the ruling partys have slogans similar to "Its Morning, America" but in any case the events of 1989 show the beginning of the 3T.
The Financial crisis of 2008 had hit Europe much more, then the USA, whith creating a significant crisis of the Eurozone and the EU. With the Brexis this crisis reach ist boiling point.
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#67
(12-28-2016, 08:11 AM)Odin Wrote: Mike, I think one issue here is that you are interpreting the election results, here, in a too superficial way. If you look closely, a lot of the things that resulted on Trump's victory have their origin in the 2008 Crash.
We will date turnings from long ago and in other places fairly readily without have the sort of detailed knowledge about that era that someone who lived through has.  A superficial examination is all that is required to see the last 4T and the two before that. What we don't know is whether in the future there will be a series of events that will look just as obviously 4T as the last three 4T, but the dating of these events makes a 2008 start date look unnatural.  For example, suppose there is another financial crisis under Trump, but this one is dealt with successfully leading to Trump being  followed by another two-term Republican under which the economic malaise of the past 3-4 decades is resolved, after which a 1T is clearly in place in the mid-2030's.   In this scenario a 2008 4T start makes little sense. 

On the other hand, suppose Trump ends up as a Republican Carter, and in 2020 comes a Democratic Reagan.  In this situation 2008 makes a lot of sense (i.e. Obama = Nixon, and Bush = Johnson, who tried to have guns and butter and ended up wrecking his party.

And then again suppose we get a recession, but with no panic and Trump responses with a vicious war against ISIS and fellow travelers in Syria/Iraq, that results in a successful conclusion of the War on Terror, after which a period of calm ensues that looks like 1T. In that case the theme of the 4T would be fighting the terrorist threat in the Middle East, and so might be dated from 2003.

In all of the previous social moments, we have had the luxury of knowing when they ended.  This helps enormously in putting down dates. Although I would like to believe that Obama's election was the start of something that is not yet over, maybe I am wrong and it never was anything, just a false hope.
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#68
(02-26-2017, 04:50 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(12-28-2016, 08:11 AM)Odin Wrote: Mike, I think one issue here is that you are interpreting the election results, here, in a too superficial way. If you look closely, a lot of the things that resulted on Trump's victory have their origin in the 2008 Crash.
We will date turnings from long ago and in other places fairly readily without have the sort of detailed knowledge about that era that someone who lived through has.  A superficial examination is all that is required to see the last 4T and the two before that. What we don't know is whether in the future there will be a series of events that will look just as obviously 4T as the last three 4T, but the dating of these events makes a 2008 start date look unnatural.  For example, suppose there is another financial crisis under Trump, but this one is dealt with successfully leading to Trump being  followed by another two-term Republican under which the economic malaise of the past 3-4 decades is resolved, after which a 1T is clearly in place in the mid-2030's.   In this scenario a 2008 4T start makes little sense. 

On the other hand, suppose Trump ends up as a Republican Carter, and in 2020 comes a Democratic Reagan.  In this situation 2008 makes a lot of sense (i.e. Obama = Nixon, and Bush = Johnson, who tried to have guns and butter and ended up wrecking his party.

And then again suppose we get a recession, but with no panic and Trump responses with a vicious war against ISIS and fellow travelers in Syria/Iraq, that results in a successful conclusion of the War on Terror, after which a period of calm ensues that looks like 1T. In that case the theme of the 4T would be fighting the terrorist threat in the Middle East, and so might be dated from 2003.

That would be 2001, when the war on terror was declared and begun. 2003 was an unnecessary diversion from it, although justified by it.

Quote:In all of the previous social moments, we have had the luxury of knowing when they ended.  This helps enormously in putting down dates. Although I would like to believe that Obama's election was the start of something that is not yet over, maybe I am wrong and it never was anything, just a false hope.

We know when this 4T will end, according to the cosmic pattern and the saeculum cycle, IMO!
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#69
(02-26-2017, 04:50 PM)Mikebert Wrote: ... In all of the previous social moments, we have had the luxury of knowing when they ended.  This helps enormously in putting down dates. Although I would like to believe that Obama's election was the start of something that is not yet over, maybe I am wrong and it never was anything, just a false hope.

Even at that, we are still disputing the ACW crisis era, and that was pretty clear cut in comparison to today.  We haven't suffered anything that qualifies as an existential threat, so it's all up for grabs.  That may be a blessing we shouldn't discount too quickly.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#70
(02-26-2017, 01:39 PM)freivolk Wrote:
(08-21-2016, 06:33 PM)Remy Renault Wrote: Even though the US and Western Europe are more or less in alignment, sometimes I feel the dates of certain turnings differ slightly depending on what side of the pond you're on. For instance, even if the American 2T lasted from 1965-1980, in Western Europe I think it was more late fifties to mid-seventies rather than mid sixties to early eighties like in the US. So if anything, Europe had a really f***ing long 3T. In Western Europe the "Sixties" were basically over before they officially ended according to the calendar whereas they lasted until about 1973 in the US. Or maybe it was only France and Italy who experienced their respective 2Ts ahead of schedule, say from 1959-1975, whereas the UK and Germany experienced theirs at roughly the same time as the US. I don't know...

But I think it's safe to say the 2T officially ended in Italy the night Pier Paolo Pasolini got murdered.

I think its obvious, the dates for the turnings between the US and Western Europe are very much in aligment. We have the 1T starting in 1948/9. In West Germany we have 1948 the Währungsreform (currency reform) and 1949 the foudation of the Federal Republic (were the first is in the german mindset more important then the later), in Italy the election of 1948 which stabilize the first Republic. I admit France is a bit complicated, but the economic recovering and the isolation of the communists also starts around 1947/8. That France has still to deal witha lot of leftover problems from the 4T is a result of Vichy, which coloboration tarnished the french hero generation and led to a restauration of the old 3T elite, till the Gaullists took over.
The 2T starts 1967/8 with the emerging youth(prophet) revolt. May 68 in Paris is definitly a important date.
1987 in West Germany, 1988 in France the ruling partys have slogans similar to "Its Morning, America" but in any case the events of 1989 show the beginning of the 3T.
The Financial crisis of 2008 had hit Europe much more, then the USA, whith creating a significant crisis of the Eurozone and the EU. With the Brexis this crisis reach ist boiling point.

Would not 1989 with the Fall of the Berlin Wall, along with the Second Summer of Love in Britain (which was the British Boomers or Generation 68'ers version of Woodstock), be a more fitting for end of the last 2T for Europe? Because the mood I get from Europe (minus Ireland, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia and Belarus which I argue are on a different saeculums) was one of spiritual satisfaction in 1989. Also I argue events of 1989 for Europe to me were a swan song to the Awakening, along with being a fitting end to an Awakening which started with the Prague Spring and the Protests of 1968.
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#71
Certainly, Europe had no "Morning in America". And some people say that trends usually swap over from the US after five years. (Trump was elected in 2021, what does that mean for Europe?)
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#72
David Horn said:

"...events don't have to provide a clear and distinct 4T for the theory to be valid...we have had mild 4Ts in the past...the Glorious Revolution was more an amalgam of critical events than a singular crisis, yet we have no problem citing it as a 4T."

This appears to be how the present is playing out.

David Horn also said:

"Success is not mandatory...nor is outright failure. Some contests fight to a draw or something similar...."

in the USA, perhaps Red and Blue will both make a few, modest gains in their repective agendas.

Perhaps this 4T will end up being called The Troubles or something similar.
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#73
(03-17-2021, 09:25 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: David Horn said:

"...events don't have to provide a clear and distinct 4T for the theory to be valid...we have had mild 4Ts in the past...the Glorious Revolution was more an amalgam of critical events than a singular crisis, yet we have no problem citing it as a 4T."

This appears to be how the present is playing out.

David Horn also said:

"Success is not mandatory...nor is outright failure.  Some contests fight to a draw or something similar...."

Steve Ryan posted to the paleo 4T site that Ireland once had a Crisis with muddled results.

Perhaps this 4T will end up being called The Troubles or something similar.

If victory should require a nuclear exchange, then a draw would be better. Stalemate ends chess games and wars, too. 

Turnings can be stretched, but that ordinarily requires an all-powerful leader able to repress all change not of his liking. A very long 1T might apply to Spain from the time in which Spain withdrew its Blue Division from the Eastern Front in 1944. (Technically the Blue Division was on leave from the Spanish Army while volunteering to serve the Axis side). Domestically, Spain was already under a rigid order characteristic of a 1T, but this had a dictatorship enforcing the conformity... brutally. 

The real 4T for Spain culminated in the Spanish Civil War,  a near certainty when a large part of the Spanish populace was about as modern as the United States at the time in culture and social values while another large part still had social values characteristic of a feudal society and whose sole concession to modernity was acceptance of advanced technology in warfare, repression, and material productivity. 

(At one point in this Crisis Era I saw the Spanish Civil War as a possible analogy for a country as ideologically polarized as the USA at the end of the 3T. Think of the posts of Classic X'er as an example of what the Right might have on the surface... with savage brutality within range of eruption at any moment in which such was possible). That has not happened, and such is all to the good. 

Spain under Franco had a huge brain drain, as anyone seeking to exercise creative abilities or enjoying social justice left for other countries. Spanish political refugees may have replaced much of the wartime losses of France. 

Franco kept a 1T-like era seemingly in operation from at the latest the early 1940's until his death in 1975. Then Spain went into an Awakening Era -- belatedly, and perhaps not for long, but long enough to force huge changes in Spanish social norms.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#74
I was reviewing an archived thread, The MegaSaeculum. I am not convinced that the cycle is actually a four part cycle.

But there was a bit of discussion regarding Intellectual Awakenings. This seems to a subtype of the Apollo 2T. One mentioned was a late 19th century 2T is Russia. I think that another one that qualifies was the "War of the Hats" 2T in Sweden, as well as the first 2T in America (I can never remember the name of that one).

There has been an assumption that the next 2T in America will resemble the Missionary Awakening, but what if it turns out to be an Intellectual 2T?
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#75
The USA is about three years ahead of most of Europe, the postwar configuration of political life generally congealing some time between 1947 and 1949. The Crisis was over in Norway and the Netherlands with the rapid reversion to pre-war norms aside from losses of the vast majority of the Jewish population in the Netherlands. Tito's Communists rapidly gave up any pretension to pluralism in Yugoslavia by the autumn of 1945.


Whether the Commies would have significant power in France or Italy took a couple years to establish. Italy had a referendum on whether to be a constitutional monarchy or a republic.

Guessing on when the 1T began:

Soviet Union 1948 as it completed the collectivization of the Baltic countries, Moldavia, and what had been eastern Poland. Otherwise 1945.

UK 1945. As the shooting ended, back to normal.
Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland -- danger over.
Norway 1945 with the arrest of Quisling and associates.
Norway, Netherlands: German surrender.
Yugoslavia 1945 (see above)
Albania 1946: Communist consolidation of power
France, Italy 1946: see above.
Bulgaria 1946: Communist consolidation of power, abolition of the monarchy.
Denmark 1946: Soviet troops evaculate Bornholm.
Hungary 1947: Communist coup
Poland 1947: full consolidation of Communist power.
Romania late 1947: abdication of the monarch at gunpoint, complete obliteration of anti-Communist opposition
Czechoslovakia, early 1948: communist coup.
Finland mid-1948: failed Communist coup.
Greece 1948: failure of the Communist insurrection in the Greek Civil War.
western Germany 1948: Berlin air lift. Practical formation of the German Federal Republic (although full sovereignty was not complete until 1951)
eastern Germany 1949: formation of the DDR as a nominally-sovereign state.
Belgium had a crisis over the monarchy, occupation-related, not resolved until 1950
Austria did not achieve full independence and sovereignty until 1955.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#76
I think that's right, but I think Europe pretty much caught up with the USA within a turning or so of WWII. At most since the sixties there has been a one or two-year difference. Our world runs on a global civilization timeclock now.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#77
(03-25-2021, 10:35 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I was reviewing an archived thread, The MegaSaeculum.  I am not convinced that the cycle is actually a four part cycle.

But there was a bit of discussion regarding Intellectual Awakenings.  This seems to a subtype of the Apollo 2T.  One mentioned was a late 19th century 2T is Russia.  I think that another one that qualifies was the "War of the Hats" 2T in Sweden, as well as the first 2T in America (I can never remember the name of that one).

There has been an assumption that the next 2T in America will resemble the Missionary Awakening, but what if it turns out to be an Intellectual 2T?

Isn't that pretty much the same idea, "Missionary" equals "apollonian" and "more intellectual"?

I think so, but the difference will be a matter of slight emphasis; most 2Ts are pretty much the same. From my point of view, the planetary configuration resembles the sixties and 70s.

What kind of tech social network we have by the 2050s will certainly affect the kind of Awakening we have then.

Our 4th turning in some circles is already called "The Cold Civil War." I think that's right. At least so far it is cold, and probably the most we can expect is some further January 6th-type events, especially at mid-decade. Whether or not there will be secessions is also up for grabs.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#78
(02-26-2017, 04:50 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(12-28-2016, 08:11 AM)Odin Wrote: Mike, I think one issue here is that you are interpreting the election results, here, in a too superficial way. If you look closely, a lot of the things that resulted on Trump's victory have their origin in the 2008 Crash.
We will date turnings from long ago and in other places fairly readily without have the sort of detailed knowledge about that era that someone who lived through has.  A superficial examination is all that is required to see the last 4T and the two before that. What we don't know is whether in the future there will be a series of events that will look just as obviously 4T as the last three 4T, but the dating of these events makes a 2008 start date look unnatural.  For example, suppose there is another financial crisis under Trump, but this one is dealt with successfully leading to Trump being  followed by another two-term Republican under which the economic malaise of the past 3-4 decades is resolved, after which a 1T is clearly in place in the mid-2030's.   In this scenario a 2008 4T start makes little sense. 

On the other hand, suppose Trump ends up as a Republican Carter, and in 2020 comes a Democratic Reagan.  In this situation 2008 makes a lot of sense (i.e. Obama = Nixon, and Bush = Johnson, who tried to have guns and butter and ended up wrecking his party.

And then again suppose we get a recession, but with no panic and Trump responses with a vicious war against ISIS and fellow travelers in Syria/Iraq, that results in a successful conclusion of the War on Terror, after which a period of calm ensues that looks like 1T. In that case the theme of the 4T would be fighting the terrorist threat in the Middle East, and so might be dated from 2003.

In all of the previous social moments, we have had the luxury of knowing when they ended.  This helps enormously in putting down dates. Although I would like to believe that Obama's election was the start of something that is not yet over, maybe I am wrong and it never was anything, just a false hope.

As some of us expected, indeed Trump was the Republican Carter, and the Skowroneck cycle held true. Biden succeeding Obama does indeed suggest that Obama's election was the start of something that is not yet over, and that Biden is the Democratic Reagan. But the fact that our turning is the Cold Civil War means that the division of the country IS the Crisis, and so won't be entirely solved anytime soon. Since that is the case, we can't rely on the idea that a 4T brings in a three-term administration dedicated to transformation, like FDR's. This still may not happen.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#79
(03-27-2021, 01:49 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: As some of us expected, indeed Trump was the Republican Carter, and the Skowroneck cycle held true. Biden succeeding Obama does indeed suggest that Obama's election was the start of something that is not yet over, and that Biden is the Democratic Reagan. But the fact that our turning is the Cold Civil War means that the division of the country IS the Crisis, and so won't be entirely solved anytime soon. Since that is the case, we can't rely on the idea that a 4T brings in a three-term administration dedicated to transformation, like FDR's. This still may not happen.

Every 4T presents a long, steep hill to climb, but this 4t brings several. For purposes of analogy, the climb is damn near vertical.  Can we expect a resolution that's more than partial?  I suspect not.  A lot of ground work will be laid, and some issues addressed in full, but the core of an emerging modernity won't be resolved this saeculum; I'm certain of that.  

Does that make what will be accomplished insignificant? Hardly.  Much of what we are finally addressing has been there in primitive form since the beginning of the Industrial Age and the ACW, supported by wealth, influence and power.  If we can begin to break that paradigm, we will have done our share.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#80
I have to say that I don't have a real grasp of Apollo type 2Ts. Would an Intellectual 2T actually be a revolutionary 2T?
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