JohnMc82
Senior Member
Future Economic Timeline - Transitioning from a 4T world to a 1T world
08-24-2014, 08:09 AM
Background:
Summer 2014: Bank of International Settlements issues guidance warning that the overvaluation of investment assets threatens global growth and economic stability. Banks and financial elites across the world have basically been put on notice: if you want to keep any of your wealth, you're going to have to share some of it by recognizing (and properly assigning) the value of labor in creating assets. Remember, setting prices is the fundamental job of high finance, and the Bank of International Settlements is pretty much the Vatican of modern global capitalism.
Summer 2014: Federal Reserve says no rate hike - this year. Most analysts expect a modest but deliberate rise in rates by early 2015.Prediction:Winter 2014: Travel remains slow, and demand weak. Gasoline approaches $3 per gallon (falling). Seasonal hiring is weak, adding to fears of a rate hike.
Spring 2015: Federal Reserve announces quarter-point interest rate increase. Markets panic and lose a significant percentage of value in a short period of time. Commodities and non-residential real estate are particularly hard hit. Residential real estate fares better than analysts expect, shortages due to slow construction are cited. (This is pretty much the last chance to buy a house at saecular lows)
Summer 2015: Business earnings reports are better than expected, but analysts say to wait because the full effects of the interest rate change haven't been felt yet. Summer trading remains slow and slightly depressed. Hiring remains weak
.Fall 2015: Business earnings reports beat expectations - again. Accountants cite declining cost of commodities (energy, materials, etc) and low industrial/commercial rents as delivering more-than-expected savings for business operations.
Fall-Winter 2015: Some investment funds return to the market, but the expectation of rising interest rates discourages speculation in commodities. Gasoline approaches $2.50.2016-2017: Music and fashion is increasingly defined by young adults with no personal memory of the 3T music and fashion cultures. Civics increasingly move to management and executive production roles in entertainment.
Spring 2016: Encouraged by better than expected economic situation, business begins expansion operations we haven't seen in a decade. However, new job creation remains in a very low income bracket, only offset by some reduction in consumer cost pressures.
Summer 2016: Gas approaching $3 (heading up with the peak driving season)
Fall 2016: Hillary easily defeats the Republican nominee, but the GOP retains control of the House, leading to a relatively uneventful term.
Winter 2016: Tesla battery factory goes online. Electric cars reach 500 mile range and charging stations are easily found in most major metros.
Fall 2017: Frustrated with the continuing lack of action by the government, protests become more common. Conservative coalition continues rapid deterioration due to demographic pressure. Public arguments between social conservatives, business conservatives, and paleoconservatives become increasingly common and intense.
Summer 2018: 2018 model year cars begin to offer Google and Tesla "auto-pilot" features in states authorizing use. Regulation of self-driving cars become an urgent national discussion.
Fall 2018: Significant House/Senate gains for Democrats.
Summer 2019: Solar power hits cost parity with coal. Federal Funds Rates stabilize at a low but solid 3-4%. Stocks soar and commodities collapse.
Summer 2020: Planetary Explorations (or another competitor) demonstrates proof of concept by landing a survey vehicle on a near earth object. Commodities take another big hit.
Fall 2020: Hillary declines to seek re-election, citing age, health, and inability to work with reactionaries stuck in the past. Republican candidate gets a level of support that would make Mondale feel bad for him/her. (This could even be the Palin-for-president campaign if Republicans blame Hillary's victory on gender politics)
Winter 2020: Second Tesla battery factory opens, fast-charging technology allows a battery to get 300 miles worth of juice in five minutes of being plugged in. Abandoned gas stations become a more common sight, adding to the downward pressure on commercial real estate prices by increasing the availability of storefronts in prime locations.
Fall 2021: Comprehensive corporate, tax, and financial reform begins a rapid trend of favoring wages over corporate profitability. Summer 2022: Michael Bay's latest high-budget blockbuster about explosions and crisis and the end of the world flops so badly that we collectively wonder why we ever paid to see them in the first place.
2021-2035: Economic boom so intense that it can only seem absurd by those of us who put up with the last few decades. Equity values fail to keep up with real economic growth, largely due to the hesitation of civics to trust Wall Street with their money.
2035-2040: Music and fashion culture increasingly defined by young adults who have no personal memory of the 4T. Artists moving in to management and executive production roles.
2045-2050: Equity values overshoot the target, creating a brief but significant echo of the 4T's valuation of speculative paper over real stuff. Equities stumble, but at this point, it is increasingly clear that wages and worker retirement/investment portfolios are relatively overvalued. Right-wing economics becomes a thing again.
Those words, "temperate and moderate", are words either of political cowardice, or of cunning, or seduction. A thing, moderately good, is not so good as it ought to be. Moderation in temper, is always a virtue; but moderation in principle, is a species of vice.'82 - Once & always independent
-24-2014, 10:55 AM
Kepi
Senior Member
Join DateNov 2012LocationNorthern, VAPosts3,664
Couple things...If the economy tanks out again, I would expect to see house prices tank again, as well as gasoline prices. Any money market crash is a threat to Boomer retirement. So how do they scrape together an actual retirement? Well, they sell that 3T monstrosity to someone at a bargain basement price and buy a condo, cut the wining and dining they intended to do and live a hard scrabble life for a good while. Or they have their kids move back in or do the master bedroom flip and assume their loan (and give up the wining and dining).If gasoline commodities tank (which if there's another crash, they will), I expect to see the price drop to the late 08 level, especially now that I'm actually seeing some electric cars on the road.I still think Hillary is unelectable, and won't make it out of the primary if she decides to actually run (I suspect she's a flak target, out there making money while absorbing all the negative attention the conservative media can throw at her so the short list of hopefuls can escape character assassination). If the economy tanks again, I strongly expect that neither parties traditional candidates will fare well.
2014, 12:21 P
Eric the Green
Senior Member
Wow, that's an impressive list of prophetic statements. Interesting to go through it all and see how it compares to this prophet's predictions. We've been disagreeing more lately, but I commend your attempt. Let's see. Originally Posted by JohnMc82 Background:Summer 2014: Bank of International Settlements issues guidance warning that the overvaluation of investment assets threatens global growth and economic stability. Banks and financial elites across the world have basically been put on notice: if you want to keep any of your wealth, you're going to have to share some of it by recognizing (and properly assigning) the value of labor in creating assets. Remember, setting prices is the fundamental job of high finance, and the Bank of International Settlements is pretty much the Vatican of modern global capitalism.Good advice that I don't think will be heeded.Summer 2014: Federal Reserve says no rate hike - this year. Most analysts expect a modest but deliberate rise in rates by early 2015.Prediction:Winter 2014: Travel remains slow, and demand weak. Gasoline approaches $3 per gallon (falling). Seasonal hiring is weak, adding to fears of a rate hike.Spring 2015: Federal Reserve announces quarter-point interest rate increase. Markets panic and lose a significant percentage of value in a short period of time. Commodities and non-residential real estate are particularly hard hit. Residential real estate fares better than analysts expect, shortages due to slow construction are cited. (This is pretty much the last chance to buy a house at saecular lows)There may be a slight increase in the interest rate. I think the recovery continues in 2014-15. Demand is not weakening, and there will be no significant panics. Construction is probably speeding up. But many people still having trouble finding work, though the job market is improving. This is a great 4T recession from which we never fully recover, at least not to the way things were in the 3T.Summer 2015: Business earnings reports are better than expected, but analysts say to wait because the full effects of the interest rate change haven't been felt yet. Summer trading remains slow and slightly depressed. Hiring remains weak.Fall 2015: Business earnings reports beat expectations - again. Accountants cite declining cost of commodities (energy, materials, etc) and low industrial/commercial rents as delivering more-than-expected savings for business operations.I don't know how you arrived at lower costs for commodities or rents. You may be right, but I don't see it. But business earnings may be pretty good as you say.Fall-Winter 2015: Some investment funds return to the market, but the expectation of rising interest rates discourages speculation in commodities. Gasoline approaches $2.50.Gasoline prices will probably be stable, about where they are now. I'm not sure what the connection is between speculation in commodities and expectations of higher interest rates.2016-2017: Music and fashion is increasingly defined by young adults with no personal memory of the 3T music and fashion cultures. Civics increasingly move to management and executive production roles in entertainment.Your statement about music, I sincerely hope is true. And it would be a blessing.Spring 2016: Encouraged by better than expected economic situation, business begins expansion operations we haven't seen in a decade. However, new job creation remains in a very low income bracket, only offset by some reduction in consumer cost pressures. Summer 2016: Gas approaching $3 (heading up with the peak driving season)Probably correct.Fall 2016: Hillary easily defeats the Republican nominee, but the GOP retains control of the House, leading to a relatively uneventful term.Winter 2016: Tesla battery factory goes online. Electric cars reach 500 mile range and charging stations are easily found in most major metros.Yes, those would seem to be spot-on predictions. I'm not sure exactly how fast the electric cars will progress, but sometime along in here the industry will start expanding faster. I have said the whole green energy sector will ramp up in about 2018.Fall 2017: Frustrated with the continuing lack of action by the government, protests become more common. Conservative coalition continues rapid deterioration due to demographic pressure. Public arguments between social conservatives, business conservatives, and paleoconservatives become increasingly common and intense.Summer 2018: 2018 model year cars begin to offer Google and Tesla "auto-pilot" features in states authorizing use. Regulation of self-driving cars become an urgent national discussion.Fall 2018: Significant House/Senate gains for Democrats.Summer 2019: Solar power hits cost parity with coal. Federal Funds Rates stabilize at a low but solid 3-4%. Stocks soar and commodities collapse.Except for that last one, I agree with the above. But now is the time when I think the economy could show signs of strain, due to the lack of reforms. I imagine it may be the reverse of what you say (stocks collapse and commodities soar) because shortages in many commodities are almost certain to increase as resources become strained by global warming and over-use, while stocks are already now overvalued, but will not suffer a panic as you expect so soon in 2015. There will likely be a bear market at the end of the decade instead.Summer 2020: Planetary Explorations (or another competitor) demonstrates proof of concept by landing a survey vehicle on a near earth object. Commodities take another big hit.Fall 2020: Hillary declines to seek re-election, citing age, health, and inability to work with reactionaries stuck in the past. Republican candidate gets a level of support that would make Mondale feel bad for him/her. (This could even be the Palin-for-president campaign if Republicans blame Hillary's victory on gender politics)Yes, you have stumbled into the truth regarding Hillary. But of course there will be no Palin campaign and Mondale is irrelevant. You've got it right though, as I see it now.Winter 2020: Second Tesla battery factory opens, fast-charging technology allows a battery to get 300 miles worth of juice in five minutes of being plugged in. Abandoned gas stations become a more common sight, adding to the downward pressure on commercial real estate prices by increasing the availability of storefronts in prime locations.Exactly, except closing gas stations won't have any effect on real estate prices.Fall 2021: Comprehensive corporate, tax, and financial reform begins a rapid trend of favoring wages over corporate profitability.That would be nice! Yes I think that prediction is spot on. I think pressure for reforms toward greater equality and value of labor will start building up now, and Democrats will gain more power. Hillary will regret her decision to bow out because of "inability to work with reactionaries." They are unlikely to survive the 2020 election.Summer 2022: Michael Bay's latest high-budget blockbuster about explosions and crisis and the end of the world flops so badly that we collectively wonder why we ever paid to see them in the first place.The mood as I see it in the early 2020s is upbeat, but fears have not gone away because the effects of our mismanagement of the Earth are coming home to roost. But in the 2020s they will encourage action and optimism that reform can work. In 2022, the mood of progress returns in a big way. It will seem like 1962 is resuming, after a 60-year hiatus. But now we will be smarter about "progress," having learned some lessons during the 60-year re-examination of what it means during the "post-modern" era. Now we enter the "transmodern" era; progress resumes, but with the light of sustainability and quality gradually returning. A renaissance in the arts is likely too, adding to the glow of this period. Reforms begin in earnest, though not without resistance since this is still after-all America.2021-2035: Economic boom so intense that it can only seem absurd by those of us who put up with the last few decades. Equity values fail to keep up with real economic growth, largely due to the hesitation of civics to trust Wall Street with their money.I think the economy will speed up, and generally-speaking prosperity will last through the late 4T, 1T and early 2T (through 2050). I doubt it will be like the booms of the past though. Adjustments to our mismanagement in so many ways will put a damper on growth, but the depression due to depopulation that Kepi expects will not happen. That's an interesting idea about Wall Street and millies. I don't know if that will happen or not. Civics usually end up trusting the institutions of their time. If reforms and changes keep happening though, that will keep the economy fresh. Millies will probably keep this reform agenda going-- certainly during the late 4T (the 2020s), supported by the young new-silent Sensitives, though held back at times by old fogey Xers and some ancient red Boomer reactionaries (though other blue Boomer prophets like me will still be pushing for the reforms and radical changes). The reformers and activists I expect will have the upper hand, and reactionary parties will be more moderate.2035-2040: Music and fashion culture increasingly defined by young adults who have no personal memory of the 4T. Artists moving in to management and executive production roles.An upheaval in China is likely in this period, and resource or trade wars and confrontations. New energy policies will be propagated. Confrontations and cold wars between the world powers of the time will happen.2045-2050: Equity values overshoot the target, creating a brief but significant echo of the 4T's valuation of speculative paper over real stuff. Equities stumble, but at this point, it is increasingly clear that wages and worker retirement/investment portfolios are relatively overvalued. Right-wing economics becomes a thing again.Quite the opposite. This will be a period of Awakening and Revolution; the sixties revisited in great degree. The Green mindset comes into its own, and corporate institutions will be questioned and often overturned. At the same time, another Great Society will be extended throughout the world by liberal governments. No doubt some movements of this time will seem outrageously optimistic and audacious, and extremists of all kinds could proliferate. Libertarian economics is the opposite of all that. It could experience a revival; I would say it will be looked upon as a fringe extremist idea like Goldwater's campaign was, and will fail to stop the new Great Society, in this period at least. So it might happen, but there will be no Reagan this time to institute it in a coming 3T. Still, there are always trends of cyclic reversal. Labor could become over-valued by this period, if the previous cycle repeats. That could happen if the reforms we need are put in place by then, regulating working hours and wages. If so, it will be the 2050s before we see a reversed trend. If anything, labor will be more active and powerful during the era of revolution itself and shortly afterward. Speculative paper booms seem a little premature for this period too. If there are economic strains and stagnations, they are more likely to happen in the following decade, which will resemble the 1970s cyclically. I also see a strong revival of green economics in the 2040s (first enunciated in the previous 2T), which is locally-based and cooperative. Strong movements to live in harmony with the earth, and organic and sensitive romantic art styles, will propagate. Before the 2045-50 period, in the early 40s, however, its possible that corporate power could concentrate, and their power could be revived. Secret cabals and combinations of wealth could gain power and manipulate the economy to their advantage. This will be reacted to in the decade's 2nd half, which begins the 2T. I also see the power of Europe and especially France reviving in this decade. Another change in French government is certainly likely in the early 2040s, as their Uranus 84-year return cycle comes around. Just as our Uranus cycle came around in the mid-2020s.Last edited by Eric the Green; 08-24-2014 at 12:30 PM."I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin BieberKeep the spirit alive,Eric A. Meece
JDFP
Senior Member
Join DateJul 2010LocationKnoxville, TN.Posts1,200
Originally Posted by Kepi I still think Hillary is unelectable, and won't make it out of the primary if she decides to actually run (I suspect she's a flak target, out there making money while absorbing all the negative attention the conservative media can throw at her so the short list of hopefuls can escape character assassination). If the economy tanks again, I strongly expect that neither parties traditional candidates will fare well.This. Hillary might get the nomination but would be defeated. The woman is too polarizing as a person (an unethical and crudely disgusting human being at that) even if her politics are far more moderate and 'baby blue' regarding most issues. With that said, I despise her as an individual but as a politician she's shrewd, highly intelligent, (so was Emperor Palpatine) and would find ways to compromise (unlike the current regime) with others to actually do something other than posturing/pouting of how she has a pen and a cell phone and refusing to work with others. The one bright side regarding a Hillary nomination is that it would all but guarantee a Conservative White House come 2020. As far as the rest of it, inferences based on current trajectories are interesting and there may be some merit to some of your "predictions" - but even the best predictions is only educated guess-work. And I don't have time for any astrological nonsense as others prefer to spew forth.j.p."And did you get what you wanted from this life, even so? I did. And what did you want? To call myself beloved, to feel myself beloved on the earth." -- Raymond Carver"A page of good prose remains invincible." -- John CheeverReply With Quote
8-24-2014, 04:
JohnMc82
Senior Member
Join DateJan 2011LocationBack in JaxPosts1,962
Hillary's lame-duck presidency is the controversial claim? Hm.You guys should check out RCP. When Fox News polls say Hillary can beat Rand Paul, Chris Christie, or JEB by double digits, I don't think the GOP stands a
chance.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...l...nt/They've even got her winning Florida & North Carolina, two states the GOP can't really win without. Hillary could even beat JEB in his home state, forget about the double-digit leads she has here against other potential Republicans.I don't like Hillary either, but, unless some really unexpected contender pops up, or someone manages to beat her in the primary....The Congressional map is a little different, because despite a generic vote favoring Democrats, the Republicans have been more aggressive in securing representation through gerrymandered districts. As a midterm, 2014 will lean conservative, and then 2016 will be another election where the populace votes blue but ends up with a red Congress.Last edited by JohnMc82; 08-24-2014 at 04:54 PM.Those words, "temperate and moderate", are words either of political cowardice, or of cunning, or seduction. A thing, moderately good, is not so good as it ought to be. Moderation in temper, is always a virtue; but moderation in principle, is a species of vice.'82 - Once & always independent
Brian Beecher
Join DateSep 2001LocationDowners Grove, ILPosts2,937
Originally Posted by JDFP This. Hillary might get the nomination but would be defeated. The woman is too polarizing as a person (an unethical and crudely disgusting human being at that) even if her politics are far more moderate and 'baby blue' regarding most issues. With that said, I despise her as an individual but as a politician she's shrewd, highly intelligent, (so was Emperor Palpatine) and would find ways to compromise (unlike the current regime) with others to actually do something other than posturing/pouting of how she has a pen and a cell phone and refusing to work with others. The one bright side regarding a Hillary nomination is that it would all but guarantee a Conservative White House come 2020. As far as the rest of it, inferences based on current trajectories are interesting and there may be some merit to some of your "predictions" - but even the best predictions is only educated guess-work. And I don't have time for any astrological nonsense as others prefer to spew forth.j.p.What you are saying about Hillary is so exactly spot on as to what was, and often still is, said about Richard Nixon. He also was very shrewd and sometimes brilliant, especially on foreign issues, yet despised by so many , even sans Watergate.
Brian Beecher
Senior Member
Originally Posted by JohnMc82 Hillary's lame-duck presidency is the controversial claim? Hm.You guys should check out RCP. When Fox News polls say Hillary can beat Rand Paul, Chris Christie, or JEB by double digits, I don't think the GOP stands a chance.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/president/They've even got her winning Florida & North Carolina, two states the GOP can't really win without. Hillary could even beat JEB in his home state, forget about the double-digit leads she has here against other potential Republicans.I don't like Hillary either, but, unless some really unexpected contender pops up, or someone manages to beat her in the primary....The Congressional map is a little different, because despite a generic vote favoring Democrats, the Republicans have been more aggressive in securing representation through gerrymandered districts. As a midterm, 2014 will lean conservative, and then 2016 will be another election where the populace votes blue but ends up with a red Congress.If Hillary indeed is the Dems nominee, expect to see more folks voting for "none of the above".
JDFP
Senior Member
Join DateJul 2010LocationKnoxville, TN.Posts1,200
Originally Posted by Brian Beecher What you are saying about Hillary is so exactly spot on as to what was, and often still is, said about Richard Nixon. He also was very shrewd and sometimes brilliant, especially on foreign issues, yet despised by so many , even sans Watergate.Good catch there. And you're absolutely right. I didn't think about it but going back and thinking about Tricky Dicky with that I could definitely see some major similarities between Hillary and Nixon. Hopefully Hillary won't be a vicious and unpredictable alcoholic who wants to nuke Putin when she gets upset and has to be talked out of it by her closest advisers ("No, no, don't launch an attack on Russia, the president's just drunk again"). I will have to say Nixon was an incredibly fascinating man though. j.p."And did you get what you wanted from this life, even so? I did. And what did you want? To call myself beloved, to feel myself beloved on the earth." -- Raymond Carver"A page of good prose remains invincible." -- John CheeverReply With Quote
Kepi
Senior Member
Join DateNov 2012LocationNorthern, VAPosts3,664
Originally Posted by JohnMc82 Hillary's lame-duck presidency is the controversial claim? Hm.You guys should check out RCP. When Fox News polls say Hillary can beat Rand Paul, Chris Christie, or JEB by double digits, I don't think the GOP stands a chance.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/president/They've even got her winning Florida & North Carolina, two states the GOP can't really win without. Hillary could even beat JEB in his home state, forget about the double-digit leads she has here against other potential Republicans.I don't like Hillary either, but, unless some really unexpected contender pops up, or someone manages to beat her in the primary....The Congressional map is a little different, because despite a generic vote favoring Democrats, the Republicans have been more aggressive in securing representation through gerrymandered districts. As a midterm, 2014 will lean conservative, and then 2016 will be another election where the populace votes blue but ends up with a red Congress.It's not republican candidates I'd worry about, it's any given democratic one. Even a mildly competent candidate could take her out in the primary. JDFP kinda nodded towards the problem, but as a red side fan he doesn't get the problem. Hillary is "light blue", sure, but she's sky blue, not electric blue. She's out of season. If anyone comes in with a shade that's closer to something seasonally appropriate, Hillary is out. In 2008, Hillary was a touch out of season and she lost. Next time, she may as well come out in clown paint and select Ben Bernanke as her running mate. I don't think that she's not smart, but she's not good at shutting her mouth when she should. In 2016, her hawking will definitely come back to haunt her, because even the middle east degenerating, even with Russia & Ukraine, we're really not that interested in another war, and this time I don't know if anything would really make us want to enter one and I don't know that anyone is crazy enough to pick that level of fight with us this time. We're not the country that mopped up the mess in World War I, but is still on the verge of being deemed unsophisticated savages anymore. We're the Evil Empire. We crush low power nations, demand people do what we say... Likely nobody wants to involve us in their war this time
JDFP
Senior Member
Originally Posted by Kepi It's not republican candidates I'd worry about, it's any given democratic one. Even a mildly competent candidate could take her out in the primary. JDFP kinda nodded towards the problem, but as a red side fan he doesn't get the problem. Hillary is "light blue", sure, but she's sky blue, not electric blue. She's out of season. If anyone comes in with a shade that's closer to something seasonally appropriate, Hillary is out. In 2008, Hillary was a touch out of season and she lost. Next time, she may as well come out in clown paint and select Ben Bernanke as her running mate. I don't think that she's not smart, but she's not good at shutting her mouth when she should. In 2016, her hawking will definitely come back to haunt her, because even the middle east degenerating, even with Russia & Ukraine, we're really not that interested in another war, and this time I don't know if anything would really make us want to enter one and I don't know that anyone is crazy enough to pick that level of fight with us this time. We're not the country that mopped up the mess in World War I, but is still on the verge of being deemed unsophisticated savages anymore. We're the Evil Empire. We crush low power nations, demand people do what we say... Likely nobody wants to involve us in their war this time.Well, a quick tidbit from this "red side fan":How interesting it would be to see a Democratic nominee (Hillary) vs. a Republican nominee (let's say Rand Paul for the sake of argument) and the Democratic nominee being the hawkish figure this time around with the Republican nominee being the one who says: "Hell no; we won't go." - now that would certainly be one for the history books in seeing that unfold! Definitely popcorn worthy there!j.p."And did you get what you wanted from this life, even so? I did. And what did you want? To call myself beloved, to feel myself beloved on the earth." -- Raymond Carver"A page of good prose remains invincible." -- John CheeverReply With Quote
Bronco80
Senior Member
Originally Posted by JohnMc82 Fall 2020: Hillary declines to seek re-election, citing age, health, and inability to work with reactionaries stuck in the past.This is the only part that strikes me as off on first glance. Hillary has wanted the presidency so bad, for so long, that if she wins in 2016 I can't imagine her willingly give it up. If she serves from 2017-24 she'd be the same age as Ronald Reagan during that period, and I don't know of any health issues that she might have. And she's had plenty of experience tangling with the vast right wing conspiracy.Reply With Quote
Eric the Green
Senior Member
Originally Posted by JDFP Well, a quick tidbit from this "red side fan":How interesting it would be to see a Democratic nominee (Hillary) vs. a Republican nominee (let's say Rand Paul for the sake of argument) and the Democratic nominee being the hawkish figure this time around with the Republican nominee being the one who says: "Hell no; we won't go." - now that would certainly be one for the history books in seeing that unfold! Definitely popcorn worthy there!j.p.That's true, that would be interesting. Rand Paul would not win, mostly because he won't be nominated, but he does better in polls than most Republican prospects against her. No-one should over-estimate Hillary's propensity to get us into a war, though. She may be more hawkish, but that 's just around the edges. She may be more likely to do things like give aid to Syria, impose tough sanctions, make some bombing raids; etc. But she's in the new liberal Democrat Clinton/Carter/Obama tradition, and as former Secretary of State is also a diplomat, and a good one. I understand the criticism; just don't get carried away if you want to be correct in your crystal ball "I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin BieberKeep the spirit alive,Eric A. Meece
Kepi
Senior Member
Originally Posted by JDFP Well, a quick tidbit from this "red side fan":How interesting it would be to see a Democratic nominee (Hillary) vs. a Republican nominee (let's say Rand Paul for the sake of argument) and the Democratic nominee being the hawkish figure this time around with the Republican nominee being the one who says: "Hell no; we won't go." - now that would certainly be one for the history books in seeing that unfold! Definitely popcorn worthy there!j.p.It would be interesting, but I don't think a staunchly anti-war republican can actually make up enough of a majority to get through the primaries either. While we are war weary, there's still a lot of voters who definitely believe that a strong America means an America that never backs down and immediately takes every opportunity to make a fight happen. It's not all or even most republicans, but it's a large enough contingent that they have to be appeased with more than just lip service to make the coalition work.Now where I think things get interesting is in the economy. If anything spirals, it's not like you have replacing the Fed chair even as a distant possibility. Meanwhile law suits for misbehavior isn't an option, because we've been doing that. Stimulus isn't an option, because we've been doing that. So what are you left with as options? The republican's traditional "do nothing, reduce taxes, deregulate" won't fly, but neither will the democrat's traditional safety net approach. If John is right and there's a crash in early 15 (I think that it'll be either October this year or next, maybe we can hold or until 16, but I doubt it... October is just a good month to get slammed), it's going to be an ugly, domestically centered quagmire for any candidate.
TimWalker
Senior Member
If Boomer retirement is in jeopardy, how can they afford a new condo? I expect that Boomers' best option would be an austere life in some sort of communal living arrangement.As I posted to another thread, many Boomers may find themselves in a nomadic lifestyle, working temp jobs in their Golden Years. Until their health fails.Last edited by TimWalker; 08-24-2014 at 09:09 PM.Reply With Quote
TimWalker
Senior Member
In general, yes, we are war weary. And isolationist sentiment has reappeared in some groupings. No other nation will want to get into a war with us, but we could stumble into one if they think we are blocking/undermining their interests.Reply With Quote
Kepi
Senior Member
Originally Posted by TimWalker If Boomer retirement is in jeopardy, how can they afford a new condo? I expect that Boomers' best option would be an austere life in some sort of communal living arrangement.As I posted to another thread, many Boomers may find themselves in a nomadic lifestyle, working temp jobs in their Golden Years. Until their health fails.By selling their houses and liquidating some other assets. Basically, they're going to have to sell off a lot of stuff and but something they can actually afford.Reply With Quote
Mikebert
Senior Member
1st post very optimistic. Business cycle been banished. This is the same "it's different this time" stuff that folks were peddling in the 1990's.Reply With Quote
Mikebert
Senior Member
Originally Posted by JDFP Well, a quick tidbit from this "red side fan":How interesting it would be to see a Democratic nominee (Hillary) vs. a Republican nominee (let's say Rand Paul for the sake of argument) and the Democratic nominee being the hawkish figure this time around with the Republican nominee being the one who says: "Hell no; we won't go." - now that would certainly be one for the history books in seeing that unfold! Definitely popcorn worthy there!j.p.I would be very interesting. I can't see Paul getting the nomination.Reply With Quote
Mikebert
Senior Member
Join DateJul 2001LocationKalamazoo MIPosts4,501
Originally Posted by Kepi If John is right and there's a crash in early 15What crash? he mentions a sharp correction, that's all. I don't call 1998 a crash. You don't get a big drop in the market without a recession. And that means years of high unemployment in the current environment. But his forecast has essentially eliminated the business cycle. It's the same thing as they were talking about in the 1990's, that somehow "the internet" or electric cars or insert your favorite technology here "changes everything".Reply With Quote
JohnMc82
Senior Member
Originally Posted by Mikebert What crash? he mentions a sharp correction, that's all. I don't call 1998 a crash. You don't get a big drop in the market without a recession. And that means years of high unemployment in the current environment. But his forecast has essentially eliminated the business cycle. It's the same thing as they were talking about in the 1990's, that somehow "the internet" or electric cars or insert your favorite technology here "changes everything".We're already 15 years in to a long-term trend of weak and falling employment.Labor force participation is dropping like a rock, and it has been since it peaked in late '99 or early 2000. The next correction should only intensify that trend that has already been going on for almost fifteen years, and I don't think it will "turn" in the other direction until at least the early 2020s. Even then, it's more likely to be flat for a turning before there's any real employment growth.The related secular metric to watch is corporate profits as a percentage of GDP. The last time we were at these levels we were fighting WW2, and it wasn't until the 1T had started that this number started to come back down to the more stable 5-7% range.Corporate profits may not even peak until 2024, and there won't be a strong trend in favor of growing wages until after that peak. Between now and then, workers may have a little bit more wiggle room than they had in the prior fifteen years, but it is still an employer's market - probably until the labor force participation rate bottoms out in the low 50%s.The essential technology of the economic 1T is cheap, renewable energy. When we stop thinking about fossil fuels as the essential ingredient to growth, growth will be possible again. When cars run off renewable electricity instead of oil, this directly impacts major themes of the 4T: foreign policy designed to secure access to oil in the Middle East; environmental policy that is struggling to keep up with our fossil-fuel footprint or demand; and corporate policy that is shaped by fear of resource shortages and rapidly rising energy costs.Those words, "temperate and moderate", are words either of political cowardice, or of cunning, or seduction. A thing, moderately good, is not so good as it ought to be. Moderation in temper, is always a virtue; but moderation in principle, is a species of vice.'82 - Once & always independent
Eric the Green
Senior Member
Originally Posted by JDFP As far as the rest of it, inferences based on current trajectories are interesting and there may be some merit to some of your "predictions" - but even the best predictions is only educated guess-work. And I don't have time for any astrological nonsense as others prefer to spew forth.j.p.I understand. But there is a record that is empirically verifiable; not foolproof by any means, but significant enough that some might see it as trumping peoples' beliefsystem that says astrology can't be true just because."I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin BieberKeep the spirit alive,Eric A. MeeceReply With Quote
Eric the Green
Senior Member
Originally Posted by TimWalker In a depressed economy, who will be in a position to buy the Boomers' stuff?Well, if Kepi is right, that could bring down housing prices. If it's not a crash, that could be good. We'll see in about 2019."I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin BieberKeep the spirit alive,Eric A. Meece
Kepi
Senior Member
Originally Posted by TimWalker In a depressed economy, who will be in a position to buy the Boomers' stuff?It's more a matter how low Boomers are willing to cash out. It's going to be that way anyway if you're talking about a cash out for retirement. There's going to be price decline for investments because it's going have to be bought by generations who have not had the ability to amass wealth.Reply With Quote
Mikebert
Senior Member
Originally Posted by JohnMc82 We're already 15 years in to a long-term trend of weak and falling employment.Labor force participation is dropping like a rock, and it has been since it peaked in late '99 or early 2000. The next correction should only intensify that trend that has already been going on for almost fifteen years, and I don't think it will "turn" in the other direction until at least the early 2020s. Even then, it's more likely to be flat for a turning before there's any real employment growth.The related secular metric to watch is corporate profits as a percentage of GDP. The last time we were at these levels we were fighting WW2, and it wasn't until the 1T had started that this number started to come back down to the more stable 5-7% range.Corporate profits may not even peak until 2024, and there won't be a strong trend in favor of growing wages until after that peak. Between now and then, workers may have a little bit more wiggle room than they had in the prior fifteen years, but it is still an employer's market - probably until the labor force participation rate bottoms out in the low 50%s.The essential technology of the economic 1T is cheap, renewable energy. When we stop thinking about fossil fuels as the essential ingredient to growth, growth will be possible again. When cars run off renewable electricity instead of oil, this directly impacts major themes of the 4T: foreign policy designed to secure access to oil in the Middle East; environmental policy that is struggling to keep up with our fossil-fuel footprint or demand; and corporate policy that is shaped by fear of resource shortages and rapidly rising energy costs.OK. Your first post was all sunshine. I don't think we are in for sunshine over the next ten years. Your call for a boom is apparently based on what happened last time. What happened last time happened for a *reason*. It didn't happen because some effect of the turning cycle. It happened because the *details* of the policy response were a certain way. They could have just as easily been a different way, and then it wouldn't have happened.Last edited by Mikebert; 08-25-2014 at 03:01 PM.
JohnMc82
Senior Member
Join DateJan 2011LocationBack in JaxPosts1,962
Like has been pointed out, a Rand Paul vs. Hillary matchup almost puts Hillary in the awkward position of being the conservative with regards to foreign policy and too-big-to-fail corporate policy. Total turnout would probably be pretty low, but the polls so far show Hillary easily defeating any Democratic primary challenger, as well as any potential Republican nominee who has any sort of name recognition.But I do think, that it wouldn't take long for the populace to remember why Hillary is such a divisive character, either. She will blame age or Republicans or whatever when she doesn't run for a second term, but the reality is that her popularity is going to be suffering from the day she steps into office. Knowing that she won't be able to go out with a rich policy legacy, she'll make herself in to a media martyr for her cause (that cause of course, being herself).Knowing she won't be able to pull off too many shady dealings with the right-wing ready to destroy her, she'll bow out of the job in a way that keeps her in the spotlight and collecting bigger-than-ever speaking & consulting fees.
