The New Crisis War Unfolding Now?

[TheNomad]

Up to now, I haven't seen enough to make me say with any immediate concern, but now we are starting to see the whole "they are developing..............." blah blah.  Just like Saddam's mystical yellow cake connection.  The concern is in bold.  The way has already been paved by America and exacerbated by America in various ways.... and now the propaganda can begin unspooling to the revelation of some NEW "axis of evil" where we'll all be indoctrinated about Iran developing the capability to destroy Israel which it has been claiming to "wipe from the map" (a linguistic mistranslation that continues because it serves the coming agenda) since forever.  And rump hasn't helped by 1) withdrawing from signatory and 2) installing U.S. embassy in Jerusalem.  This war is being fully propagated by people who believe it MUST happen.......... and also by people living in hermetic caves who want to show you The Copper Scroll of the Essenes to prove that Netanyahu-esque mid-east leaders are right now fulfilling prophecy.... and that a divine hand guides these movements.  The Davidic/Solomonic temple is going to be restored and then Yahweh will return in the form of Christ to destroy all our enemies.  Only then can their be peace.

"We will destroy the Jedi, THEN we will restore peace to the galaxy" - Lord Sidious.

So YAY boomers, there may actually be a Dark Phoenix scenario after all.   You guys have had the best lives!   Growing up wanting for nothing, having the mobility to reject everything as you search for drugs, sex and self-expansion.... then when you felt like it (in your 40s and 50s) to spawn and nest in a cushy corporate space with a golden parachute.  You weren't able to play soccer with your teen child because of your arthritis (cause you are old enough to be their grandparent) and finally, leaving public life during a real Drive-In horror flick that everyone else has to deal with while you fade into dementia in a woodland rest home.  Not all of you.  But it's surely a run-of-the-mill scenario.

And you know I'm just messing with you all.     <--- me TheNomadAngel holds no punches

Ok but seriously, is this showing signs of the beginning of patterns we have seen so many times, where we build up the enemy slowly, then we say it has broken international law, then we say they are developing threatening weapons which could reach the U.S. mainland, then suddenly from nowhere there is an attack which shifts national mood into supporting the attack of Iran at all cost?  Have we seen this before?  How many times?  I dare say it goes back to Pearl Harbor where it was known the Japanese fleet was on the way and was allowed to attack as a method of propagating HUGE nationalistic support to enter a war the American people wanted to be in anyway. Still using comics to make a point, the issue of Captain America slugging adolph hitler in the jaw came out much before America was even involved in the war. The sentiment was there. It just needed a critical event to set everything in motion.

I have the ability to argue every side of any topic.   It's a gift.  So, I am challenging my own views on the saeculum and the Crisis as not-yet-finished.  Personally, I love to be challenged.  I love to be exposed to things I don't believe.  I do not enjoy echo chambers.  A group f people sitting around agreeing is possibly my worst nightmare and represents total emptiness and waste of time and brain function.  So, some of you may think I blast you out of disagreement, however, I'm pushing for something more real than some of you are giving.  I consider that an admirable quality.  It means if I can't deal with what you are saying, your argument is maybe just weak and I have no real interest in it.

Sorry to ramble, but if someone tells me about a book or something like a documentary that THEY FEEL is an extremely good representation of their POV, I will usually make it a point to watch it or read it.  I don't feel that "spirit" here where some of those I've been fortunate enough to interact with, I feel like WHY waste my resources to offer to someone who would never read or expose themselves to it UNLESS they first knew it was filled with information they already believe.  I'll never understand that concept

*****************************************************************************

WORLD NEWS 06/05/2018 06:33 am ET
Iran Starts Work On Advanced Centrifuges
Iran will adhere to its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, the director of its Atomic Energy Organization says

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Iran has begun work on infrastructure to build advanced centrifuges at its Natanz facility but will adhere to its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, the director of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation Ali Akbar Salehi said on Tuesday.

On Monday Iran’s Supreme Leader said he had ordered preparations to increase uranium enrichment capacity if the nuclear deal falls apart after the U.S. withdrawal from it in May.

According to a spokesman for Iran’s nuclear agency, Tehran will inform the U.N. nuclear watchdog in Vienna on Tuesday that it had started the process to increase uranium enrichment capacity.

The decision by the United States to withdraw from the nuclear agreement has cast doubt on whether the remaining signatories will be able to preserve the deal.

The developing of infrastructure for building advanced centrifuges at the Natanz facility is moving along quickly, Salehi said in a news conference broadcast on state television.

“If we were progressing normally, it would have taken six or seven years, but this will now be ready in the coming weeks and months,” Salehi said.

Iran has also developed the capacity to produce electricity at Natanz, Salehi said, a site which lies around 300 kilometers (186 miles) south of Tehran.

Salehi said none of Iran’s nuclear activities would violate Tehran’s landmark deal with world powers, under which it strictly limits uranium enrichment capacity to satisfy the powers that it could not be used to develop atomic bombs.

In exchange, Iran received relief from sanctions, most of which were rescinded in January 2016.

The deal allows Iran to continue 3.67 percent uranium enrichment, far below the roughly 90 percent threshold of weapons-grade. Before the deal was reached, Tehran enriched uranium to up to 20 percent purity.

(Reporting By Babak Dehghanpisheh; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky)

[Marypoza]

(06-05-2018, 07:25 AM)TheNomad Wrote: Up to now, I haven't seen enough to make me say with any immediate concern, but now we are starting to see the whole "they are developing..............." blah blah.  Just like Saddam's mystical yellow cake connection.  The concern is in bold.  The way has already been paved by America and exacerbated by America in various ways.... and now the propaganda can begin unspooling to the revelation of some NEW "axis of evil" where we'll all be indoctrinated about Iran developing the capability to destroy Israel which it has been claiming to "wipe from the map" (a linguistic mistranslation that continues because it serves the coming agenda) since forever.  And rump hasn't helped by 1) withdrawing from signatory and 2) installing U.S. embassy in Jerusalem.  This war is being fully propagated by people who believe it MUST happen.......... and also by people living in hermetic caves who want to show you The Copper Scroll of the Essenes to prove that Netanyahu-esque mid-east leaders are right now fulfilling prophecy.... and that a divine hand guides these movements.  The Davidic/Solomonic temple is going to be restored and then Yahweh will return in the form of Christ to destroy all our enemies.  Only then can their be peace.


-- that's bcuz there exist Congresscritters who think they are entitled to the keys to the 1000 Year Kingdom. Seriously. It scares the shit outta me


Nomad--"We will destroy the Jedi, THEN we will restore peace to the galaxy" - Lord Sidious.

So YAY boomers, there may actually be a Dark Phoenix scenario after all.   You guys have had the best lives!   Growing up wanting for nothing, having the mobility to reject everything as you search for drugs, sex and self-expansion.... then when you felt like it (in your 40s and 50s) to spawn and nest in a cushy corporate space with a golden parachute.  You weren't able to play soccer with your teen child because of your arthritis (cause you are old enough to be their grandparent) and finally, leaving public life during a real Drive-In horror flick that everyone else has to deal with while you fade into dementia in a woodland rest home.  Not all of you.  But it's surely a run-of-the-mill scenario.

And you know I'm just messing with you all.     <--- me TheNomadAngel holds no punches


-- whatever


Nomad--Ok but seriously, is this showing signs of the beginning of patterns we have seen so many times, where we build up the enemy slowly, then we say it has broken international law, then we say they are developing threatening weapons which could reach the U.S. mainland, then suddenly from nowhere there is an attack which shifts national mood into supporting the attack of Iran at all cost?  Have we seen this before?  How many times?  I dare say it goes back to Pearl Harbor where it was known the Japanese fleet was on the way and was allowed to attack as a method of propagating HUGE nationalistic support to enter a war the American people wanted to be in anyway.  Still using comics to make a point, the issue of Captain America slugging adolph hitler in the jaw came out much before America was even involved in the war.  The sentiment was there.  It just needed a critical event to set everything in motion.


--try the yr 1898 when the battleship Maine was blown up under suspicious circumstsnces in order to start a war with Spain


Nomad--I have the ability to argue every side of any topic.   It's a gift.  So, I am challenging my own views on the saeculum and the Crisis as not-yet-finished.  Personally, I love to be challenged.  I love to be exposed to things I don't believe.  I do not enjoy echo chambers.  A group f people sitting around agreeing is possibly my worst nightmare and represents total emptiness and waste of time and brain function.  So, some of you may think I blast you out of disagreement, however, I'm pushing for something more real than some of you are giving.  I consider that an admirable quality.  It means if I can't deal with what you are saying, your argument is maybe just weak and I have no real interest in it.

-- agreed


Nomad--Sorry to ramble, but if someone tells me about a book or something like a documentary that THEY FEEL is an extremely good representation of their POV, I will usually make it a point to watch it or read it.  I don't feel that "spirit" here where some of those I've been fortunate enough to interact with, I feel like WHY waste my resources to offer to someone who would never read or expose themselves to it UNLESS they first knew it was filled with information they already believe.  I'll never understand that concept

*****************************************************************************

WORLD NEWS 06/05/2018 06:33 am ET
Iran Starts Work On Advanced Centrifuges
Iran will adhere to its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, the director of its Atomic Energy Organization says

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Iran has begun work on infrastructure to build advanced centrifuges at its Natanz facility but will adhere to its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, the director of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation Ali Akbar Salehi said on Tuesday.

On Monday Iran’s Supreme Leader said he had ordered preparations to increase uranium enrichment capacity if the nuclear deal falls apart after the U.S. withdrawal from it in May.

According to a spokesman for Iran’s nuclear agency, Tehran will inform the U.N. nuclear watchdog in Vienna on Tuesday that it had started the process to increase uranium enrichment capacity.

The decision by the United States to withdraw from the nuclear agreement has cast doubt on whether the remaining signatories will be able to preserve the deal.

The developing of infrastructure for building advanced centrifuges at the Natanz facility is moving along quickly, Salehi said in a news conference broadcast on state television.

“If we were progressing normally, it would have taken six or seven years, but this will now be ready in the coming weeks and months,” Salehi said.

Iran has also developed the capacity to produce electricity at Natanz, Salehi said, a site which lies around 300 kilometers (186 miles) south of Tehran.

Salehi said none of Iran’s nuclear activities would violate Tehran’s landmark deal with world powers, under which it strictly limits uranium enrichment capacity to satisfy the powers that it could not be used to develop atomic bombs.

In exchange, Iran received relief from sanctions, most of which were rescinded in January 2016.

The deal allows Iran to continue 3.67 percent uranium enrichment, far below the roughly 90 percent threshold of weapons-grade. Before the deal was reached, Tehran enriched uranium to up to 20 percent purity.

(Reporting By Babak Dehghanpisheh; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky)

-- if you look at the 1st 2 Crises Wars, they were both civil wars (yes the Revolution was a civil war. We think of it as a war with England bcuz we have been these 2 separate countries for so long  but at the time it was a civil war, with Americans wanting to bcome a separate nation vs Tories who wanted to remain with England ) lt was only the last Crisis War where we fought an external threat (Hitler) which makes me wonder if that was an anomaly, & the next Crisis will be another civil war. I see alot of pisspot dictators around the globe, but nothing really comparable to Hitler as far as being a global threat goes. Evil maybe, but a global threat? Not so much. OTOH, wtr to the Mideast, esp considering some of these Congresscritters consider themselves entitled to the keys to the 1000 Yr Kingdom, & considering we already got troops in lraq & Afghanistan, l can see us getting involved in an expanded all out hot war over oil  or some other flimsy pretext. I can also see us being  the aggressor in such a war.

Full disclosure: l am a pacifist & l really don't care to see us get involved in any wars. Do you think it's possible to get thru a Crisis without a war?

[David Horn]

(07-05-2018, 04:30 AM)Marypoza Wrote: Full disclosure: l am a pacifist & l really don't care to see us get involved in any wars. Do you think it's possible to get thru a Crisis without a war?

Can we have a 4T without a hot shooting war?  Yes, I think so.  The only restriction I would impose, as if I have any authority to impose anything, is the need for a clash of ideas that invalidates one set of arguments while validating the other.  Using war as a tool is intellectually easy, but getting there without war isn't impossible, just unlikely.  A more likely outcome, sans war, would be a truce or some sort that tilted more one way than another … think the armistice on the Korean peninsula as an example, albeit one that required war to achieve.  Typically, we would consider that a failed 4T.

[Eric the Green]

(07-05-2018, 04:30 AM)Marypoza Wrote:

(06-05-2018, 07:25 AM)TheNomad Wrote: Up to now, I haven't seen enough to make me say with any immediate concern, but now we are starting to see the whole "they are developing..............." blah blah.  Just like Saddam's mystical yellow cake connection.  The concern is in bold.  The way has already been paved by America and exacerbated by America in various ways.... and now the propaganda can begin unspooling to the revelation of some NEW "axis of evil" where we'll all be indoctrinated about Iran developing the capability to destroy Israel which it has been claiming to "wipe from the map" (a linguistic mistranslation that continues because it serves the coming agenda) since forever.  And rump hasn't helped by 1) withdrawing from signatory and 2) installing U.S. embassy in Jerusalem.  This war is being fully propagated by people who believe it MUST happen.......... and also by people living in hermetic caves who want to show you The Copper Scroll of the Essenes to prove that Netanyahu-esque mid-east leaders are right now fulfilling prophecy.... and that a divine hand guides these movements.  The Davidic/Solomonic temple is going to be restored and then Yahweh will return in the form of Christ to destroy all our enemies.  Only then can their be peace.


-- that's bcuz there exist Congresscritters who think they are entitled to the keys to the 1000 Year Kingdom. Seriously. It scares the shit outta me


Nomad--"We will destroy the Jedi, THEN we will restore peace to the galaxy" - Lord Sidious.

So YAY boomers, there may actually be a Dark Phoenix scenario after all.   You guys have had the best lives!   Growing up wanting for nothing, having the mobility to reject everything as you search for drugs, sex and self-expansion.... then when you felt like it (in your 40s and 50s) to spawn and nest in a cushy corporate space with a golden parachute.  You weren't able to play soccer with your teen child because of your arthritis (cause you are old enough to be their grandparent) and finally, leaving public life during a real Drive-In horror flick that everyone else has to deal with while you fade into dementia in a woodland rest home.  Not all of you.  But it's surely a run-of-the-mill scenario.

And you know I'm just messing with you all.     <--- me TheNomadAngel holds no punches


-- whatever


Nomad--Ok but seriously, is this showing signs of the beginning of patterns we have seen so many times, where we build up the enemy slowly, then we say it has broken international law, then we say they are developing threatening weapons which could reach the U.S. mainland, then suddenly from nowhere there is an attack which shifts national mood into supporting the attack of Iran at all cost?  Have we seen this before?  How many times?  I dare say it goes back to Pearl Harbor where it was known the Japanese fleet was on the way and was allowed to attack as a method of propagating HUGE nationalistic support to enter a war the American people wanted to be in anyway.  Still using comics to make a point, the issue of Captain America slugging adolph hitler in the jaw came out much before America was even involved in the war.  The sentiment was there.  It just needed a critical event to set everything in motion.


--try the yr 1898 when the battleship Maine was blown up under suspicious circumstsnces in order to start a war with Spain


Nomad--I have the ability to argue every side of any topic.   It's a gift.  So, I am challenging my own views on the saeculum and the Crisis as not-yet-finished.  Personally, I love to be challenged.  I love to be exposed to things I don't believe.  I do not enjoy echo chambers.  A group f people sitting around agreeing is possibly my worst nightmare and represents total emptiness and waste of time and brain function.  So, some of you may think I blast you out of disagreement, however, I'm pushing for something more real than some of you are giving.  I consider that an admirable quality.  It means if I can't deal with what you are saying, your argument is maybe just weak and I have no real interest in it.

-- agreed


Nomad--Sorry to ramble, but if someone tells me about a book or something like a documentary that THEY FEEL is an extremely good representation of their POV, I will usually make it a point to watch it or read it.  I don't feel that "spirit" here where some of those I've been fortunate enough to interact with, I feel like WHY waste my resources to offer to someone who would never read or expose themselves to it UNLESS they first knew it was filled with information they already believe.  I'll never understand that concept

*****************************************************************************

WORLD NEWS 06/05/2018 06:33 am ET
Iran Starts Work On Advanced Centrifuges
Iran will adhere to its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, the director of its Atomic Energy Organization says

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Iran has begun work on infrastructure to build advanced centrifuges at its Natanz facility but will adhere to its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, the director of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation Ali Akbar Salehi said on Tuesday.

On Monday Iran’s Supreme Leader said he had ordered preparations to increase uranium enrichment capacity if the nuclear deal falls apart after the U.S. withdrawal from it in May.

According to a spokesman for Iran’s nuclear agency, Tehran will inform the U.N. nuclear watchdog in Vienna on Tuesday that it had started the process to increase uranium enrichment capacity.

The decision by the United States to withdraw from the nuclear agreement has cast doubt on whether the remaining signatories will be able to preserve the deal.

The developing of infrastructure for building advanced centrifuges at the Natanz facility is moving along quickly, Salehi said in a news conference broadcast on state television.

“If we were progressing normally, it would have taken six or seven years, but this will now be ready in the coming weeks and months,” Salehi said.

Iran has also developed the capacity to produce electricity at Natanz, Salehi said, a site which lies around 300 kilometers (186 miles) south of Tehran.

Salehi said none of Iran’s nuclear activities would violate Tehran’s landmark deal with world powers, under which it strictly limits uranium enrichment capacity to satisfy the powers that it could not be used to develop atomic bombs.

In exchange, Iran received relief from sanctions, most of which were rescinded in January 2016.

The deal allows Iran to continue 3.67 percent uranium enrichment, far below the roughly 90 percent threshold of weapons-grade. Before the deal was reached, Tehran enriched uranium to up to 20 percent purity.

(Reporting By Babak Dehghanpisheh; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky)

-- if you look at the 1st 2 Crises Wars, they were both civil wars (yes the Revolution was a civil war. We think of it as a war with England bcuz we have been these 2 separate countries for so long  but at the time it was a civil war, with Americans wanting to bcome a separate nation vs Tories who wanted to remain with England ) lt was only the last Crisis War where we fought an external threat (Hitler) which makes me wonder if that was an anomaly, & the next Crisis will be another civil war. I see alot of pisspot dictators around the globe, but nothing really comparable to Hitler as far as being a global threat goes. Evil maybe, but a global threat? Not so much. OTOH, wtr to the Mideast, esp considering some of these Congresscritters consider themselves entitled to the keys to the 1000 Yr Kingdom, & considering we already got troops in lraq & Afghanistan, l can see us getting involved in an expanded all out hot war over oil  or some other flimsy pretext. I can also see us being  the aggressor in such a war.

Full disclosure: l am a pacifist & l really don't care to see us get involved in any wars. Do you think it's possible to get thru a Crisis without a war?

I would call the Revolution an external threat war. The military forces against the rebels were almost entirely gathered by the British, who had to invade. The Tories may have left the new country or kept silent; they weren't fighting as far as I know.

The previous war was a mixture, but it was originally the great rebellion civil war during the 2T. The Glorious Revolution gave one side the victory. But then it was William of Orange vs. Louis XIV. There were people on both sides in the colonies, I think.

The previous crisis war was short and comparatively easy and mild: the defeat of the external threat from the Spanish Armada. The previous one to that was a prolonged dynastic civil war of the roses.

The crisis war in this 4T might be smaller, because war is getting obsolete, and our place in the larger 500-year cycle is basically positive. The external threats are smaller now than in the past 4T, as you say. But Russia is likely to start a war around the 2020/2021 boundary, in which the USA is not involved directly. But Russia is an evil and large threat now to our allies, so there could be an external war with Russia by 2025. Or it could be a response to the continuing mid-east terrorist threats. 

We could also have a small civil war, if the Left is in charge of America by 2025 and institutes reforms such as gun control, court packing and higher taxes. The Right-wing in this country feels entitled to rule, so I consider a right-wing rebellion like that of the civil war to be a likely event long about 2025, with smaller outbursts possible before then if the Left gains enough power to put in these reforms. If the right-wing stays in charge, I expect secession movements in blue states and/or portions of blue states. I don't know if they could succeed, but I would expect a leftist violent revolution in the USA to be crushed unless it is accompanied by a virtual coup against Trump or a Trumpist tyrant within the government itself.

The most likely scenario I see, therefore, is small wars both domestic and foreign in the middle to late 2020s.

A lot more of us are pacifists since the sixties, but that did not stop the Bush presidents from destroying the Vietnam Syndrome and sending thousands of troops abroad to die in oil wars. If the Left is in charge in the mid-2020s though, I would expect the threat to come from abroad and from domestic rebels rather than the war to be of the USA's own making. The peace movement may also rev up too if there's another war or two in the 2020s.

[Hintergrund]

A war with China or Iran would be idiotic. The Salafists are the worse enemy. And Global Warming might be even worse.

[pbrower2a]

(07-11-2018, 01:31 PM)Hintergrund Wrote: A war with China or Iran would be idiotic. The Salafists are the worse enemy. And Global Warming might be even worse.

Where arrogance meets folly, calamity is nearly certain.

[Hintergrund]

Unfortunately true.

[TheNomad]

I appreciate ALL your comments above Eric de Verde, that post was a mess so I couldn't reply.. the code was out of control.

you said: Full disclosure: l am a pacifist & l really don't care to see us get involved in any wars. Do you think it's possible to get thru a Crisis without a war?

THIS was what struck me,, as something to bring out more dialogue. Due to the interaction here along with gauging my interaction with others of a Prophet archetype, I do not believe it is possible to move through the 4th without war. Why? Because the Prophet demands it. They crave it. They want it so badly it is akin to visceral vampirism, skulking the night to kill for the sake of draining that hot viscid life-blood for their own DESIRE.

Yes, I have come to this conclusion recently. The Prophet - as a whole - does not care about anyone. They are wholly selfish and self-centered beings who believe every emotion, thought, proverb and revelation begins and ends when THEY THEMSELVES experience it. Whether the need for final WAR comes from them being disillusioned with their (even by posh standards) "comfortable" life throughout -- from childhood to elderhood -- they still are never satisfied? Or perhaps it is because they believe their own lives and life cycle to SO UTTERLY IMPORTANT that the end of their cycle must be as a giant orgasm upon the world simply to say WE WERE HERE. I cannot tell.

As the text says, the Prophets see themselves in this manner. When they are in full power, it is a battle until the end no matter what.

Their dogma MUST prevail. Oswald MUST be the shooter because otherwise, their entire life cycle is unbalanced and all the "knowledge" and beliefs they have accrued must be re-examined and redefined. And that is the last thing they want to do.

There is a reason they are called PROPHET. Because all the rest of us are to sit at their feet and receive their wisdom (whatever that may be). We are subjugates to them, their lives, their beliefs and values. That is how they view themselves and us no matter if they will ever openly recognize it or understand it. So, they act in a manner that fully foments and propagates war............. due largely in part due to their own values and nothing more. They would trample the whole earth if it meant bringing the "gospel" to the rest of us.

Nuclear war? IT DOESN'T MATTER TO THEM. It reminds me of caustic regimes and tribalism throughout history......... Huns and Vikings pillaging the land as they go, taking what they need...... but combine that with entities such as Rome or Constantinople or Persia of old or dare I saw even Nazi Germany..................... when VALUES are being IMPOSED on others for the sake of a religious belief or "bringing the Light/Truth to the world". We must remember, even the Nazi powers believed they were spreading a "truth" to the world. We must never forget how the imposition of VALUES on others have brought misery and dread to the world even into modernity.

I like to think we have moved past that now. That we would no longer have these sacred cow idols of idolatry (and that is truly what they are, thinking ONLY of themselves on an exalted plane above the rest of us) bringing war and strife to the world.

I'll end this with my own personal belief that I do not agree with Israel. It was installed as a Western ally in a region the West wanted to control and was done under the guise of some religious ideology that "Jews" would return "home" to their "land of ancestry".

As soon as rump or obama or reagan or clinton gives Montana (or I dare say California) back to the "ancestors" then I will believe it is right. Or when the queen offers Wales back to the Welsh or something of that nature. The strife of the mid-east IS Israel. And if ANY PERSON responds to this post with the word "antisemitism" I would first rebuke you in advance to examine the definition of that word to know it ALSO applies to IRAQ and SYRIA so why isn't that word used when attacking THOSE places?

The summation being, we are at odds with Iran and probably will war with them before this 4th is done BECAUSE OF ISRAEL. We cannot undo it now. The creation of modern Israel is probably the final mistake of the modern age of such grand nature. Let's hope we don't continue making more of those idiotic decisions.

I'll even add more fire to this: if giving "people" their own homeland due to persecution and even killings, why are Americans who are here IN America due to ancestors taken against their will as slaves........... why are those people not being given the state of Virginia or Nevada for themselves? If such a thing as a wonderful idea, the United States should have a state for native peoples, for children of slaves, for asians imprisoned during wwii for simply being asian, and a jewish state in utah.

If it is such a good idea, why are we not giving peoples their own land HERE? Iran keeps saying "if you want Israel WHY didn't you carve up something for them in Europe"? to which I say "I GET THAT".

I am not saying Israel has done something overtly to cause problems. Yet, it is almost illegal to challenge Israel as doing anything underhanded for that word being thrown at you............... it begins with A and ends with M and is ALWAYS misused.

So, now we look forward to a Prophet-wrought war with Iran because Prophets from a DIFFERENT SAECULUM(!) created a Western ally in Israel under the guise of some magic bible prophecy.

[pbrower2a]

(07-18-2018, 11:01 PM)TheNomad Wrote: I appreciate ALL your comments above Eric de Verde, that post was a mess so I couldn't reply.. the code was out of control.

you said: Full disclosure: l am a pacifist & l really don't care to see us get involved in any wars. Do you think it's possible to get thru a Crisis without a war?

Afghanistan, Ireland, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Switzerland, and Turkey basically avoided World War II, getting through the Crisis without any formal involvement in war. (Spain had its own destructive civil war, so it got into a different Crisis).

Avoiding wars in a Crisis Era is a matter of luck, if not wise choices by political leaders.

Quote:THIS was what struck me,, as something to bring out more dialogue.  Due to the interaction here along with gauging my interaction with others of a Prophet archetype, I do not believe it is possible to move through the 4th without war.  Why?  Because the Prophet demands it.  They crave it.  They want it so badly it is akin to visceral vampirism, skulking the night to kill for the sake of draining that hot viscid life-blood for their own DESIRE.

But the Prophet generation might do everything possible to avoid war and only delay its start (think of Neville Chamberlain).  Except for Stalin and Antonescu, all of the aggressors were Nomads. But the Prophet with a healthy moral compass and a good understanding of history can draw upon history (not always one's own -- Cato's Carthago delenda est sounds much like what Churchill had to say about Hitler).

Prophets saddled with a war not their liking want to get it over with so that their society can most fully live in accordance with its ideals. Like FDR and Lincoln, their dislike of war does not preclude them from waging it efficiently and ferociously as needed.  

Quote:Yes, I have come to this conclusion recently.  The Prophet - as a whole - does not care about anyone.  They are wholly selfish and self-centered beings who believe every emotion, thought, proverb and revelation begins and ends when THEY THEMSELVES experience it.  Whether the need for final WAR comes from them being disillusioned with their (even by posh standards) "comfortable" life throughout -- from childhood to elderhood -- they still are never satisfied?  Or perhaps it is because they believe their own lives and life cycle to SO UTTERLY IMPORTANT that the end of their cycle must be as a giant orgasm upon the world simply to say WE WERE HERE.  I cannot tell.

No, that is how Prophets are if they have never experienced a humbling experience that establishes the humaneness that makes people tolerable as leaders or have never questioned the assumptions of their privileged backgrounds. This can explain why Dubya and Trump are wholly unfit as Crisis-Era leaders; they do not know how to deal with difficulties. But all in all, the dividing line (1882/1883) that puts FDR (who had many Reactive traits) in the Prophet category and Mussolini in the Reactive category might have been placed between 1961 and 1962 instead of 1960 and 1961 if Obama were as successful as FDR.

We have yet to have a President born in the 1950s, especially the late 1950s; leadership born in the late 1950s so far seems mediocre at best. So far I see Donald Trump as a disgrace, and we are lucky as a nation that someone so awful has not brought this country down. Maybe we have traditions stronger than he is, and that is all that can save America.

Quote:As the text says, the Prophets see themselves in this manner.  When they are in full power, it is a battle until the end no matter what.

Nothing says that Donald Trump is the last act of the Boom Generation. As a Boomer I can imagine far better. Well, there was Obama, was there not? Although he seems much like a 60-ish Reactive (think of Truman or Eisenhower between 1945 and 1961), he is the sort of leader that America typically gets after the Crisis is over.

Assuming that Donald Trump is not re-elected as President (far too many things have gone wrong, and he is fortunate so far that he has simply hurt and insulted the same people who were never going to vote for him anyway-- but he will likely start hurting other people), the dividing line between Boomer and X at the time of the 2020 election will be just short of the 60th birthday. Yes, Obama turns 60 in 2021. At this stage, can you guess what age the President inaugurated on January 20, 2021 will be? We have elected Presidents in their early-to-middle 40s and near 70. Your guess is as good as mine because there are so many possible candidates.

But being an Idealist/Prophet or Reactive/Nomad may not mean as much as having a healthy attitude toward humanity as a whole, having a healthy respect for history as a guide, not being cranky or muddled, and strict adherence to legal precedent and diplomatic protocol, and making moral choices when those are alternatives to cruelty.

Quote:Their dogma MUST prevail.  Oswald MUST be the shooter because otherwise, their entire life cycle is unbalanced and all the "knowledge" and beliefs they have accrued must be re-examined and redefined.  And that is the last thing they want to do.

The Kennedy assassination occurred over fifty years ago. What current consequences does it now have? Possibly less now than the airplane crash that killed Buddy Holly and Richie Valens (the Day the Music Died). I have yet to hear of any deathbed confessions of persons who might have made arrangements to get Lee Harvey Oswald into a position in which to kill JFK... I would not treat Oliver Stone's excellent movie JFK as a source.

Quote:There is a reason they are called PROPHET.  Because all the rest of us are to sit at their feet and receive their wisdom (whatever that may be).  We are subjugates to them, their lives, their beliefs and values.  That is how they view themselves and us no matter if they will ever openly recognize it or understand it.  So, they act in a manner that fully foments and propagates war............. due largely in part due to their own values and nothing more.  They would trample the whole earth if it meant bringing the "gospel" to the rest of us.

 
There are good prophets and false prophets. Donald Trump is a prophet of a bad America, one inequitable, hierachical, and repressive.

Quote:Nuclear war?  IT DOESN'T MATTER TO THEM.  It reminds me of caustic regimes and tribalism throughout history......... Huns and Vikings pillaging the land as they go, taking what they need...... but combine that with entities such as Rome or Constantinople or Persia of old or dare I saw even Nazi Germany..................... when VALUES are being IMPOSED on others for the sake of a religious belief or "bringing the Light/Truth to the world".  We must remember, even the Nazi powers believed they were spreading a "truth" to the world.  We must never forget how the imposition of VALUES on others have brought misery and dread to the world even into modernity.

I like to think we have moved past that now.  That we would no longer have these sacred cow idols of idolatry (and that is truly what they are, thinking ONLY of themselves on an exalted plane above the rest of us) bringing war and strife to the world.

Most Boomers really do care about their children and grandchildren, nieces and nephews, etc. Or simply Humanity as a whole. It's up to us Americans to be better than our leadership when such is pathological. Just because someone tells me that it is a patriotic duty to exterminate people whom I have recently seen as a 'model minority' (think of Jews in Hitlerland) does not mean that it is my patriotic duty to do so.

Quote:I'll end this with my own personal belief that I do not agree with Israel.

From this point I have nothing to say. I have no desire to deal with your anti-Israel, anti-Jewish screed. Let it be known that I have contemplated conversion to Reform Judaism because it seems to fit my philosophical positions better than any other religious tradition.

[TheNomad]

(07-19-2018, 02:16 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: I'll end this with my own personal belief that I do not agree with Israel.

From this point I have nothing to say. I have no desire to deal with your anti-Israel, anti-Jewish screed. Let it be known that I have contemplated conversion to Reform Judaism because it seems to fit my philosophical positions better than any other religious tradition.

I will respond to the whole post when I have a chance but this could not wait.  Israel =/= Jews.  Let's get that out of the way.  If you want to find Jews I suggest you get on that plane and GO to the other side to Crown Heights in Brooklyn.  They will gladly inform you that Israel is an apostate lie and even a demon's pulpit!  THEIR WORDS, NOT MINE.

I have been a Jew.  I am not pushing people into an oven.  I am anti-Israel for the reasons I have so eloquently explained in the previous post.  But you did not choose to hear that part.  And no, you don't really "have no desire to deal with..." what I said - you replied.  And only enough reply to add a rebuke with no basis.

Are you ready to get up out of your home in La Jolla so Mexicans can build on your land?  They are the rightful owners.  And not even mexicans but INDIGENOUS PEOPLES (whatever we want to call them).  NO you are not prepared to do that.  Yet, you come out swinging for a reach back of TWO THOUSAND YEARS to install a people into a land only because it is mentioned in your sacred text of the bible/torah whatever.

Two Thousand Years. 

Jews were expelled from "Israel" in roughly 200 A.D. by Rome for continued uprisings that would no longer be tolerated.

Do you know how long Two Thousand Years is?  It's a REALLY long time.  That is more than 20 times longer than America has existed and yet you condone installing a nation-state after that period of time.  Yet you would NEVER EVER EVER EVER vote for or endorse any official or politician or movement that seeks to give land back to aboriginal people where YOU YOURSELF live.

A true and enduring example of SUBJECTIVITY to the extreme.  Give the land to "Israel" but don't take MINE. 

You are a true living example of Curse of the Prophet.  And if you are a symbol of that, then you do good.  All symbols have their purpose.

[Eric the Green]

(07-18-2018, 11:01 PM)TheNomad Wrote: I appreciate ALL your comments above Eric de Verde, that post was a mess so I couldn't reply.. the code was out of control.

you said: Full disclosure: l am a pacifist & l really don't care to see us get involved in any wars. Do you think it's possible to get thru a Crisis without a war?

THIS was what struck me,, as something to bring out more dialogue. Due to the interaction here along with gauging my interaction with others of a Prophet archetype, I do not believe it is possible to move through the 4th without war. Why? Because the Prophet demands it. They crave it. They want it so badly it is akin to visceral vampirism, skulking the night to kill for the sake of draining that hot viscid life-blood for their own DESIRE.

Yes, I have come to this conclusion recently. The Prophet - as a whole - does not care about anyone. They are wholly selfish and self-centered beings who believe every emotion, thought, proverb and revelation begins and ends when THEY THEMSELVES experience it. Whether the need for final WAR comes from them being disillusioned with their (even by posh standards) "comfortable" life throughout -- from childhood to elderhood -- they still are never satisfied? Or perhaps it is because they believe their own lives and life cycle to SO UTTERLY IMPORTANT that the end of their cycle must be as a giant orgasm upon the world simply to say WE WERE HERE. I cannot tell.

As the text says, the Prophets see themselves in this manner. When they are in full power, it is a battle until the end no matter what.

Welcome back with your comments from the nomad perspective. Remember that civics and prophets have a different perspective from yours, though. Interactions at this forum for 20 years have shown me that it is rather the Xers, not the boomers, who tend to be the extremists and stubborn ones, while boomers are measured and calm by comparison. Maybe I am more extreme and stubborn than some of them.

But I am mostly a pacifist too, and so are many boomers. That's because, unlike the prophets before WWII, the civil war, revolution, etc., this generation of prophets experienced a war greater in scale than any second-turning prophet-youth era war in history. We do know war, and we don't want it. Also, that war was the most unnecessary bloodshed in history, so we know how useless and utterly unjust war can be.

Prophets can be selfish, no doubt. Many of us along with our silent elders have become economically piggy, and boomers like to hang on to their positions and are often egotistical and stubborn bosses. This is ironic since it is the boomers, not the Xers and millennials, who pioneered the emphasis on independent entrepreneurship in careers that are fulfilling and not just by rote and obedience.

Quote:Their dogma MUST prevail. Oswald MUST be the shooter because otherwise, their entire life cycle is unbalanced and all the "knowledge" and beliefs they have accrued must be re-examined and redefined. And that is the last thing they want to do.

Oswald was the shooter and there was no effective conspiracy (there were conspiracies that were not carried out) to kill JFK, because that is simply the fact, which anyone who looks at the evidence honestly and thoroughly will agree with. That has nothing to do with what generation you are in, and nothing to do with beliefs to be reexamined. In my case, my "belief" was that JFK was killed by a conspiracy. Re-examination convinced me that beliefs about facts are not relevant, and conspiracy theories are delusional and lead many people today into fanatical, irrational ideas and support for demagogues who profess these theories. These conspiracy theories exist on all sides of the political spectrum, and are leading to a culture of unreason and superstition with dire consequences.

Quote:There is a reason they are called PROPHET. Because all the rest of us are to sit at their feet and receive their wisdom (whatever that may be). We are subjugates to them, their lives, their beliefs and values. That is how they view themselves and us no matter if they will ever openly recognize it or understand it. So, they act in a manner that fully foments and propagates war............. due largely in part due to their own values and nothing more. They would trample the whole earth if it meant bringing the "gospel" to the rest of us.

Nuclear war? IT DOESN'T MATTER TO THEM. It reminds me of caustic regimes and tribalism throughout history......... Huns and Vikings pillaging the land as they go, taking what they need...... but combine that with entities such as Rome or Constantinople or Persia of old or dare I saw even Nazi Germany..................... when VALUES are being IMPOSED on others for the sake of a religious belief or "bringing the Light/Truth to the world". We must remember, even the Nazi powers believed they were spreading a "truth" to the world. We must never forget how the imposition of VALUES on others have brought misery and dread to the world even into modernity.

I don't think you could prove your claims that all wars in history were caused by prophet generational members, and certainly not that values are dangerous things in themselves. The social "gospel" of the missionaries brought many needed progressive reforms in our society that made it livable for a long while. The anti-slavery "gospel" of the abolitionists corrected an inherent injustice as great as has existed in any society. The earlier gospel revivals that promoted a new nation acting as a beacon of freedom led to such a democratic republic as we have here, and around the world. And the Nazi leader was a nomad generation member. We can depend on many nomad generation members to be insensitive to values and instead to impose mind-numbing dictatorships, just as the T4T authors warned us about for this time. Now that they are the most-represented in congress, Generation X supports the most mindless right-wing cabal in American history, which is currently at the helm of our government. They in great numbers along with boomers make up the "freedom caucus," which is the most reactionary and downright stupid group to hold office on this continent since the days of Dixie.

Quote:I like to think we have moved past that now. That we would no longer have these sacred cow idols of idolatry (and that is truly what they are, thinking ONLY of themselves on an exalted plane above the rest of us) bringing war and strife to the world.

Far from moving past the danger of idolatry and strife, our current prophet leader and his prophet and nomad cabal has created and imposed upon us the worst government in our history, bent on imposing selfish greed as a creed upon all of us, and emulating the cabal of dictators like those of the Mussolini era (and our current president IS Mussolini reincarnate), and admiring and cavorting with the recent cabal of dictators who have taken over in many places in our similar era today.

Quote:I'll end this with my own personal belief that I do not agree with Israel. It was installed as a Western ally in a region the West wanted to control and was done under the guise of some religious ideology that "Jews" would return "home" to their "land of ancestry".

As soon as rump or obama or reagan or clinton gives Montana (or I dare say California) back to the "ancestors" then I will believe it is right. Or when the queen offers Wales back to the Welsh or something of that nature. The strife of the mid-east IS Israel. And if ANY PERSON responds to this post with the word "antisemitism" I would first rebuke you in advance to examine the definition of that word to know it ALSO applies to IRAQ and SYRIA so why isn't that word used when attacking THOSE places?

The summation being, we are at odds with Iran and probably will war with them before this 4th is done BECAUSE OF ISRAEL. We cannot undo it now. The creation of modern Israel is probably the final mistake of the modern age of such grand nature. Let's hope we don't continue making more of those idiotic decisions.

I'll even add more fire to this: if giving "people" their own homeland due to persecution and even killings, why are Americans who are here IN America due to ancestors taken against their will as slaves........... why are those people not being given the state of Virginia or Nevada for themselves? If such a thing as a wonderful idea, the United States should have a state for native peoples, for children of slaves, for asians imprisoned during wwii for simply being asian, and a jewish state in utah.

If it is such a good idea, why are we not giving peoples their own land HERE? Iran keeps saying "if you want Israel WHY didn't you carve up something for them in Europe"? to which I say "I GET THAT".

I am not saying Israel has done something overtly to cause problems. Yet, it is almost illegal to challenge Israel as doing anything underhanded for that word being thrown at you............... it begins with A and ends with M and is ALWAYS misused.

So, now we look forward to a Prophet-wrought war with Iran because Prophets from a DIFFERENT SAECULUM(!) created a Western ally in Israel under the guise of some magic bible prophecy.

I am in general agreement with the above; Israel has and may still drag us into war. I would not oppose Israel if governed by a sensible leader willing to make peace, but the Israelis seem unable to come up with or support such a leader. Jews =/= Israel, although many American Jews are attached to it and support it fanatically and defensively, which is why American politicians bow to it. I don't know if Israel was created with support from only Missionary Generation people from the West, however; another assertion of yours which probably can't be proven. Israel was born of the Zionists in the world war one era, and established after world war two. Lots of different generations involved. Dogmatic opposition to prophets and insulting them is not a good idea when we need prophet leaders today, and boomers and late-cohort boomers are the only ones available today who are capable and charismatic enough to confront and defeat the Cheeto in Chief (but very capable demagogue) boomer.

[Marypoza]

Me -- if you look at the 1st 2 Crises Wars, they were both civil wars (yes the Revolution was a civil war. We think of it as a war with England bcuz we have been these 2 separate countries for so long  but at the time it was a civil war, with Americans wanting to bcome a separate nation vs Tories who wanted to remain with England ) lt was only the last Crisis War where we fought an external threat (Hitler) which makes me wonder if that was an anomaly, & the next Crisis will be another civil war. I see alot of pisspot dictators around the globe, but nothing really comparable to Hitler as far as being a global threat goes. Evil maybe, but a global threat? Not so much. OTOH, wtr to the Mideast, esp considering some of these Congresscritters consider themselves entitled to the keys to the 1000 Yr Kingdom, & considering we already got troops in lraq & Afghanistan, l can see us getting involved in an expanded all out hot war over oil  or some other flimsy pretext. I can also see us being  the aggressor in such a war.

Full disclosure: l am a pacifist & l really don't care to see us get involved in any wars.

Do you think it's possible to get thru a Crisis without a war?


Eric--I would call the Revolution an external threat war. The military forces against the rebels were almost entirely gathered by the British, who had to invade. The Tories may have left the new country or kept silent; they weren't fighting as far as I know.

The previous war was a mixture, but it was originally the great rebellion civil war during the 2T. The Glorious Revolution gave one side the victory. But then it was William of Orange vs. Louis XIV. There were people on both sides in the colonies, I think.

The previous crisis war was short and comparatively easy and mild: the defeat of the external threat from the Spanish Armada. The previous one to that was a prolonged dynastic civil war of the roses.


-- Eric you are a trip. You call the Revolution an external threat war bcuz the Brits had to invade. Then you refer to the previous Crises- The War of the Roses,  Spanish Armada, Wm of Orange.. that's all English shit. What does any of it have to do with the United States?  The reason l call the Revolution our 1st  Crisis War is bcuz it was the 1st one where the United States is a separate entity, or @ least attempting to bcome one severing political ties with England. The Brits did not have to invade btw. Not only did they had troops over here, they were forcing ppl here to house them. That's what the 3rd Amendment ( no quartering of soldiers) is all about. Mass was under martial law since the early 1770s, ie  before 1776. Also Tories did fight for England in the Revolution. The battle of the Cowpers, for instance, in which Dan Morgan was able to turn the tide of the war in the South towards the US, was fought against Tory troops. There were a few Brit officers running the (shit)show, but the bulk of the troops there were Tories

Eric--the crisis war in this 4T might be smaller, because war is getting obsolete, and our place in the larger 500-year cycle is basically positive. The external threats are smaller now than in the past 4T, as you say. But Russia is likely to start a war around the 2020/2021 boundary, in which the USA is not involved directly. But Russia is an evil and large threat now to our allies, so there could be an external war with Russia by 2025. Or it could be a response to the continuing mid-east terrorist threats. 

We could also have a small civil war, if the Left is in charge of America by 2025 and institutes reforms such as gun control, court packing and higher taxes. The Right-wing in this country feels entitled to rule, so I consider a right-wing rebellion like that of the civil war to be a likely event long about 2025, with smaller outbursts possible before then if the Left gains enough power to put in these reforms. If the right-wing stays in charge, I expect secession movements in blue states and/or portions of blue states. I don't know if they could succeed, but I would expect a leftist violent revolution in the USA to be crushed unless it is accompanied by a virtual coup against Trump or a Trumpist tyrant within the government itself.

The most likely scenario I see, therefore, is small wars both domestic and foreign in the middle to late 2020s.

A lot more of us are pacifists since the sixties, but that did not stop the Bush presidents from destroying the Vietnam Syndrome and sending thousands of troops abroad to die in oil wars. If the Left is in charge in the mid-2020s though, I would expect the threat to come from abroad and from domestic rebels rather than the war to be of the USA's own making. The peace movement may also rev up too if there's another war or two in the 2020s.
[/quote]

-- do you have charts on all this or are you just speculating?

[TheNomad]

(07-19-2018, 12:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-18-2018, 11:01 PM)TheNomad Wrote: I appreciate ALL your comments above Eric de Verde, that post was a mess so I couldn't reply.. the code was out of control.

you said: Full disclosure: l am a pacifist & l really don't care to see us get involved in any wars. Do you think it's possible to get thru a Crisis without a war?

THIS was what struck me,, as something to bring out more dialogue.  Due to the interaction here along with gauging my interaction with others of a Prophet archetype, I do not believe it is possible to move through the 4th without war.  Why?  Because the Prophet demands it.  They crave it.  They want it so badly it is akin to visceral vampirism, skulking the night to kill for the sake of draining that hot viscid life-blood for their own DESIRE.

Yes, I have come to this conclusion recently.  The Prophet - as a whole - does not care about anyone.  They are wholly selfish and self-centered beings who believe every emotion, thought, proverb and revelation begins and ends when THEY THEMSELVES experience it.  Whether the need for final WAR comes from them being disillusioned with their (even by posh standards) "comfortable" life throughout -- from childhood to elderhood -- they still are never satisfied?  Or perhaps it is because they believe their own lives and life cycle to SO UTTERLY IMPORTANT that the end of their cycle must be as a giant orgasm upon the world simply to say WE WERE HERE.  I cannot tell.

As the text says, the Prophets see themselves in this manner.  When they are in full power, it is a battle until the end no matter what.

Welcome back with your comments from the nomad perspective. Remember that civics and prophets have a different perspective from yours, though. Interactions at this forum for 20 years have shown me that it is rather the Xers, not the boomers, who tend to be the extremists and stubborn ones, while boomers are measured and calm by comparison. Maybe I am more extreme and stubborn than some of them.

But I am mostly a pacifist too, and so are many boomers. That's because, unlike the prophets before WWII, the civil war, revolution, etc., this generation of prophets experienced a war greater in scale than any second-turning prophet-youth era war in history. We do know war, and we don't want it. Also, that war was the most unnecessary bloodshed in history, so we know how useless and utterly unjust war can be.

Prophets can be selfish, no doubt. Many of us along with our silent elders have become economically piggy, and boomers like to hang on to their positions and are often egotistical and stubborn bosses. This is ironic since it is the boomers, not the Xers and millennials, who pioneered the emphasis on independent entrepreneurship in careers that are fulfilling and not just by rote and obedience.

Quote:Their dogma MUST prevail.  Oswald MUST be the shooter because otherwise, their entire life cycle is unbalanced and all the "knowledge" and beliefs they have accrued must be re-examined and redefined.  And that is the last thing they want to do.

Oswald was the shooter and there was no effective conspiracy (there were conspiracies that were not carried out) to kill JFK, because that is simply the fact, which anyone who looks at the evidence honestly and thoroughly will agree with. That has nothing to do with what generation you are in, and nothing to do with beliefs to be reexamined. In my case, my "belief" was that JFK was killed by a conspiracy. Re-examination convinced me that beliefs about facts are not relevant, and conspiracy theories are delusional and lead many people today into fanatical, irrational ideas and support for demagogues who profess these theories. These conspiracy theories exist on all sides of the political spectrum, and are leading to a culture of unreason and superstition with dire consequences.

Quote:There is a reason they are called PROPHET.  Because all the rest of us are to sit at their feet and receive their wisdom (whatever that may be).  We are subjugates to them, their lives, their beliefs and values.  That is how they view themselves and us no matter if they will ever openly recognize it or understand it.  So, they act in a manner that fully foments and propagates war............. due largely in part due to their own values and nothing more.  They would trample the whole earth if it meant bringing the "gospel" to the rest of us.  

Nuclear war?  IT DOESN'T MATTER TO THEM.  It reminds me of caustic regimes and tribalism throughout history......... Huns and Vikings pillaging the land as they go, taking what they need...... but combine that with entities such as Rome or Constantinople or Persia of old or dare I saw even Nazi Germany..................... when VALUES are being IMPOSED on others for the sake of a religious belief or "bringing the Light/Truth to the world".  We must remember, even the Nazi powers believed they were spreading a "truth" to the world.  We must never forget how the imposition of VALUES on others have brought misery and dread to the world even into modernity.

I don't think you could prove your claims that all wars in history were caused by prophet generational members, and certainly not that values are dangerous things in themselves. The social "gospel" of the missionaries brought many needed progressive reforms in our society that made it livable for a long while. The anti-slavery "gospel" of the abolitionists corrected an inherent injustice as great as has existed in any society. The earlier gospel revivals that promoted a new nation acting as a beacon of freedom led to such a democratic republic as we have here, and around the world. And the Nazi leader was a nomad generation member. We can depend on many nomad generation members to be insensitive to values and instead to impose mind-numbing dictatorships, just as the T4T authors warned us about for this time. Now that they are the most-represented in congress, Generation X supports the most mindless right-wing cabal in American history, which is currently at the helm of our government. They in great numbers along with boomers make up the "freedom caucus," which is the most reactionary and downright stupid group to hold office on this continent since the days of Dixie.

Quote:I like to think we have moved past that now.  That we would no longer have these sacred cow idols of idolatry (and that is truly what they are, thinking ONLY of themselves on an exalted plane above the rest of us) bringing war and strife to the world.

Far from moving past the danger of idolatry and strife, our current prophet leader and his prophet and nomad cabal has created and imposed upon us the worst government in our history, bent on imposing selfish greed as a creed upon all of us, and emulating the cabal of dictators like those of the Mussolini era (and our current president IS Mussolini reincarnate), and admiring and cavorting with the recent cabal of dictators who have taken over in many places in our similar era today.

Quote:I'll end this with my own personal belief that I do not agree with Israel.  It was installed as a Western ally in a region the West wanted to control and was done under the guise of some religious ideology that "Jews" would return "home" to their "land of ancestry".

As soon as rump or obama or reagan or clinton gives Montana (or I dare say California) back to the "ancestors" then I will believe it is right.  Or when the queen offers Wales back to the Welsh or something of that nature.  The strife of the mid-east IS Israel.  And if ANY PERSON responds to this post with the word "antisemitism" I would first rebuke you in advance to examine the definition of that word to know it ALSO applies to IRAQ and SYRIA so why isn't that word used when attacking THOSE places?

The summation being, we are at odds with Iran and probably will war with them before this 4th is done BECAUSE OF ISRAEL.  We cannot undo it now.  The creation of modern Israel is probably the final mistake of the modern age of such grand nature.  Let's hope we don't continue making more of those idiotic decisions.

I'll even add more fire to this: if giving "people" their own homeland due to persecution and even killings, why are Americans who are here IN America due to ancestors taken against their will as slaves........... why are those people not being given the state of Virginia or Nevada for themselves?  If such a thing as a wonderful idea, the United States should have a state for native peoples, for children of slaves, for asians imprisoned during wwii for simply being asian, and a jewish state in utah.

If it is such a good idea, why are we not giving peoples their own land HERE?  Iran keeps saying "if you want Israel WHY didn't you carve up something for them in Europe"? to which I say "I GET THAT".  

I am not saying Israel has done something overtly to cause problems.  Yet, it is almost illegal to challenge Israel as doing anything underhanded for that word being thrown at you............... it begins with A and ends with M and is ALWAYS misused.

So, now we look forward to a Prophet-wrought war with Iran because Prophets from a DIFFERENT SAECULUM(!) created a Western ally in Israel under the guise of some magic bible prophecy.

I am in general agreement with the above; Israel has and may still drag us into war. I would not oppose Israel if governed by a sensible leader willing to make peace, but the Israelis seem unable to come up with or support such a leader. Jews =/= Israel, although many American Jews are attached to it and support it fanatically and defensively, which is why American politicians bow to it. I don't know if Israel was created with support from only Missionary Generation people from the West, however; another assertion of yours which probably can't be proven. Israel was born of the Zionists in the world war one era, and established after world war two. Lots of different generations involved. Dogmatic opposition to prophets and insulting them is not a good idea when we need prophet leaders today, and boomers and late-cohort boomers are the only ones available today who are capable and charismatic enough to confront and defeat the Cheeto in Chief (but very capable demagogue) boomer.

I Am going to work on an exegesis concerning why I believe the Prophet archetype is at the root of all strife and conflict in the Saeculum.  I shouldn't have to do thAt since strauus/Howe are pretty much saying just that in the texts we are all apparently here to discuss.  Thanks for your comments and I have no hated for anyone here... My words are often  bold but I am never trying to attack anyone personally... How could I when I don't know anyone here.  If anything I am calling out the archetype and using examples from the comments here to support my assertions.

If users here are being immovable and completely unchangeable or not open to new information I can certainly use that as supporting evidence of my theories that I am proposing. In fact it is the best way because we have real human beings chatting in here putting their beliefs out there for everyone and I'm simply examining them and placing them within the archetype framework which the authors have done in the books we are here to discuss.

[Marypoza]

(07-09-2018, 12:40 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-05-2018, 04:30 AM)Marypoza Wrote: Full disclosure: l am a pacifist & l really don't care to see us get involved in any wars. Do you think it's possible to get thru a Crisis without a war?

Can we have a 4T without a hot shooting war?  Yes, I think so.  The only restriction I would impose, as if I have any authority to impose anything, is the need for a clash of ideas that invalidates one set of arguments while validating the other.  Using war as a tool is intellectually easy, but getting there without war isn't impossible, just unlikely.  A more likely outcome, sans war, would be a truce or some sort that tilted more one way than another … think the armistice on the Korean peninsula as an example, albeit one that required war to achieve.  Typically, we would consider that a failed 4T.

-- of course a civil war doesn't necessarily have to be a war with traditional armies or militias. Just look @ the cops, the police brutality. It could devolve into a situation where groups of ppl fight back guerilla style. Or maybe the mob gets involved like in the 1920s. Of course that was over Prohibition. I can't think of anything these daze that would cause the mob to ramp it up like they did in the 1920s. But l see situations where groups of ppl band together against police brutality, destabilizing cities, the Govt steps in, & then they are fighting the Govt, & at that point maybe the mob would get involved. I dunno

[David Horn]

(07-19-2018, 02:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(07-09-2018, 12:40 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-05-2018, 04:30 AM)Marypoza Wrote: Full disclosure: l am a pacifist & l really don't care to see us get involved in any wars. Do you think it's possible to get thru a Crisis without a war?

Can we have a 4T without a hot shooting war?  Yes, I think so.  The only restriction I would impose, as if I have any authority to impose anything, is the need for a clash of ideas that invalidates one set of arguments while validating the other.  Using war as a tool is intellectually easy, but getting there without war isn't impossible, just unlikely.  A more likely outcome, sans war, would be a truce or some sort that tilted more one way than another … think the armistice on the Korean peninsula as an example, albeit one that required war to achieve.  Typically, we would consider that a failed 4T.

-- of course a civil war doesn't necessarily have to be a war with traditional armies or militias. Just look @ the cops, the police brutality. It could devolve into a situation where groups of ppl fight back guerilla style. Or maybe the mob gets involved like in the 1920s. Of course that was over Prohibition. I can't think of anything these daze that would cause the mob to ramp it up like they did in the 1920s. But l see situations where groups of ppl band together against police brutality, destabilizing cities, the Govt steps in, & then they are fighting the Govt, & at that point maybe the mob would get involved. I dunno

The one viable option I simply forgot is cyber war.  It's the exact opposite of the neutron bomb, that would have been designed to kill everyone but do no harm to the infrastructure.  Cyber destroys the infrastructure, and leaves all the people alive and wondering what to do next.

[TheNomad]

(07-19-2018, 02:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(07-09-2018, 12:40 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-05-2018, 04:30 AM)Marypoza Wrote: Full disclosure: l am a pacifist & l really don't care to see us get involved in any wars. Do you think it's possible to get thru a Crisis without a war?

Can we have a 4T without a hot shooting war?  Yes, I think so.  The only restriction I would impose, as if I have any authority to impose anything, is the need for a clash of ideas that invalidates one set of arguments while validating the other.  Using war as a tool is intellectually easy, but getting there without war isn't impossible, just unlikely.  A more likely outcome, sans war, would be a truce or some sort that tilted more one way than another … think the armistice on the Korean peninsula as an example, albeit one that required war to achieve.  Typically, we would consider that a failed 4T.

-- of course a civil war doesn't necessarily have to be a war with traditional armies or militias. Just look @ the cops, the police brutality. It could devolve into a situation where groups of ppl fight back guerilla style. Or maybe the mob gets involved like in the 1920s. Of course that was over Prohibition. I can't think of anything these daze that would cause the mob to ramp it up like they did in the 1920s. But l see situations where groups of ppl band together against police brutality, destabilizing cities, the Govt steps in, & then they are fighting the Govt, & at that point maybe the mob would get involved. I dunno

I think the type of War they are talking about is a conclusionary one.  There might always be rage against the machine in many ways, the War of a 4T is one where there are clearly 2 sides and one comes out as the victor.  Then, that victorious side goes on to make the way in a larger scope. 

American Revolution
Civil War
WW II

Clear winners/Clear losers and a total "reset" button

[TheNomad]

(07-19-2018, 02:44 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-19-2018, 02:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(07-09-2018, 12:40 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-05-2018, 04:30 AM)Marypoza Wrote: Full disclosure: l am a pacifist & l really don't care to see us get involved in any wars. Do you think it's possible to get thru a Crisis without a war?

Can we have a 4T without a hot shooting war?  Yes, I think so.  The only restriction I would impose, as if I have any authority to impose anything, is the need for a clash of ideas that invalidates one set of arguments while validating the other.  Using war as a tool is intellectually easy, but getting there without war isn't impossible, just unlikely.  A more likely outcome, sans war, would be a truce or some sort that tilted more one way than another … think the armistice on the Korean peninsula as an example, albeit one that required war to achieve.  Typically, we would consider that a failed 4T.

-- of course a civil war doesn't necessarily have to be a war with traditional armies or militias. Just look @ the cops, the police brutality. It could devolve into a situation where groups of ppl fight back guerilla style. Or maybe the mob gets involved like in the 1920s. Of course that was over Prohibition. I can't think of anything these daze that would cause the mob to ramp it up like they did in the 1920s. But l see situations where groups of ppl band together against police brutality, destabilizing cities, the Govt steps in, & then they are fighting the Govt, & at that point maybe the mob would get involved. I dunno

The one viable option I simply forgot is cyber war.  It's the exact opposite of the neutron bomb, that would have been designed to kill everyone but do no harm to the infrastructure.  Cyber destroys the infrastructure, and leaves all the people alive and wondering what to do next.

BUT is that akin to an invasion or a hostile takeover?  If a "cyber war" type of thing is what we are looking for as a signal, is that not the same as the 2008 financial graft that still lingers in America even now a decade later?  I think of it as "was there a winner and a loser"?  I'm not sure like even if there was some natural disaster like an earthquake that decimated Japan and the civilization was brought low, is that really a 4T event?  There was no real "winner" in that and things were not "reset" so much as just left destroyed. 

But I think possibly based on the s/h text, civilizations CAN in a 4T simply collapse and never return?  Maybe there doesn't have to be a winner.  What does anyone think?

[Tim Randal Walker]

I recall that the paleo site had a thread listing 4Ts for various countries.

Not every one had a war.  During the 19th century, Britain had a bloodless Reform Crisis, and Canada had a rather low key Confederation Crisis.

[TheNomad]

(07-19-2018, 11:30 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I recall that the paleo site had a thread listing 4Ts for various countries.

Not every one had a war.  During the 19th century, Britain had a bloodless Reform Crisis, and Canada had a rather low key Confederation Crisis.

That is interesting when I read the books the authors really never talked about other nations very much. And when they talk about America they really only use examples that involve kind of ideology. 

American Revolution was ideology that America did not want to be subjugated to a crown. Then after that you have the Civil War which was obviously based on an ideology North vs South. After that we have World War II obviously a clash of ideologies on a global scale.  

All three of those resets in American civilization involved violence great amounts of violence.  I'm trying to remember if there was anything in the texts that was an example of a bloodless American fourth turning. Can anyone remember that?

[Eric the Green]

(07-19-2018, 01:25 PM)Marypoza Wrote: Me -- if you look at the 1st 2 Crises Wars, they were both civil wars (yes the Revolution was a civil war. We think of it as a war with England bcuz we have been these 2 separate countries for so long  but at the time it was a civil war, with Americans wanting to bcome a separate nation vs Tories who wanted to remain with England ) lt was only the last Crisis War where we fought an external threat (Hitler) which makes me wonder if that was an anomaly, & the next Crisis will be another civil war. I see alot of pisspot dictators around the globe, but nothing really comparable to Hitler as far as being a global threat goes. Evil maybe, but a global threat? Not so much. OTOH, wtr to the Mideast, esp considering some of these Congresscritters consider themselves entitled to the keys to the 1000 Yr Kingdom, & considering we already got troops in lraq & Afghanistan, l can see us getting involved in an expanded all out hot war over oil  or some other flimsy pretext. I can also see us being  the aggressor in such a war.

Full disclosure: l am a pacifist & l really don't care to see us get involved in any wars.

Do you think it's possible to get thru a Crisis without a war?


Eric--I would call the Revolution an external threat war. The military forces against the rebels were almost entirely gathered by the British, who had to invade. The Tories may have left the new country or kept silent; they weren't fighting as far as I know.

The previous war was a mixture, but it was originally the great rebellion civil war during the 2T. The Glorious Revolution gave one side the victory. But then it was William of Orange vs. Louis XIV. There were people on both sides in the colonies, I think.

The previous crisis war was short and comparatively easy and mild: the defeat of the external threat from the Spanish Armada. The previous one to that was a prolonged dynastic civil war of the roses.


-- Eric you are a trip. You call the Revolution an external threat war bcuz the Brits had to invade. Then you refer to the previous Crises- The War of the Roses,  Spanish Armada, Wm of Orange.. that's all English shit. What does any of it have to do with the United States?  The reason l call the Revolution our 1st  Crisis War is bcuz it was the 1st one where the United States is a separate entity, or @ least attempting to bcome one severing political ties with England. The Brits did not have to invade btw. Not only did they had troops over here, they were forcing ppl here to house them. That's what the 3rd Amendment ( no quartering of soldiers) is all about. Mass was under martial law since the early 1770s, ie  before 1776. Also Tories did fight for England in the Revolution. The battle of the Cowpers, for instance, in which Dan Morgan was able to turn the tide of the war in the South towards the US, was fought against Tory troops. There were a few Brit officers running the (shit)show, but the bulk of the troops there were Tories

Eric--the crisis war in this 4T might be smaller, because war is getting obsolete, and our place in the larger 500-year cycle is basically positive. The external threats are smaller now than in the past 4T, as you say. But Russia is likely to start a war around the 2020/2021 boundary, in which the USA is not involved directly. But Russia is an evil and large threat now to our allies, so there could be an external war with Russia by 2025. Or it could be a response to the continuing mid-east terrorist threats. 

We could also have a small civil war, if the Left is in charge of America by 2025 and institutes reforms such as gun control, court packing and higher taxes. The Right-wing in this country feels entitled to rule, so I consider a right-wing rebellion like that of the civil war to be a likely event long about 2025, with smaller outbursts possible before then if the Left gains enough power to put in these reforms. If the right-wing stays in charge, I expect secession movements in blue states and/or portions of blue states. I don't know if they could succeed, but I would expect a leftist violent revolution in the USA to be crushed unless it is accompanied by a virtual coup against Trump or a Trumpist tyrant within the government itself.

The most likely scenario I see, therefore, is small wars both domestic and foreign in the middle to late 2020s.

A lot more of us are pacifists since the sixties, but that did not stop the Bush presidents from destroying the Vietnam Syndrome and sending thousands of troops abroad to die in oil wars. If the Left is in charge in the mid-2020s though, I would expect the threat to come from abroad and from domestic rebels rather than the war to be of the USA's own making. The peace movement may also rev up too if there's another war or two in the 2020s.

-- do you have charts on all this or are you just speculating?
[/quote]

This is mostly from my new book, which is my interpretation of the various configurations in the sky coming up. It's based of course also on what I know about the USA as well as my knowledge of generation cycles and other cycles.

The English saecula are mentioned because the T4T authors covered those cycles. The basic fourthturning site explains all that. 
http://www.lifecourse.com/about/method/t...nings.html