Western Europe

[Teejay]

As I see the Global Financial Crisis triggered the Fourth Turning for the whole of Europe. Since then it has been crazy, I am going to do a bit of a survey of the major countries in Europe to give you an idea of how the Fourth Turning has affected each major nation. This is going to be over several posts and over a few days at least, because there is a lot I am planning to write.
 
Right now, in Europe the Silent generation peers have long left politics and Generation 68' (Boomer peers) have peaked in power and the Generation X peers have risen. I am going to allot the major European leaders into their generations to give you an better idea of generational dynamics. European generations are about four years behind North America, since the last Awakening started off with a bang in 1968. Hence the name of the Boomer peers in Europe, the generation of 68'.
 
 
Generation 68':
 Theresa May – Current Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
Jeremy Corbyn – Leader of the opposition Labour Party in the United Kingdom.
Angela Merkel – Chancellor of Germany
Viktor Orbán – Prime Minister of Hungary
Geert Wilders – Leader of the anti-Islam Freedom Party in the Netherlands
Vladimir Putin – President of Russia
Francois Hollande and Nicholas Sarkozy former Presidents of France.
Jean-Claude Juncker - current president of the European Commission.
Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and Mariano Rajoy - former Prime Ministers of Spain who led it during the GFC
 
Generation X Peers: 
Matteo Salvini (Italian deputy Prime Minister, interior minister and leader of the Lega Nord) Emmanuel Macron – Current President of France
David Cameron – Former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
Marine Le Pen – Leader of the National Rally (formerly: National Front) in France
Pedro Sánchez – Prime Minister of Spain
Alexis Tsipras – Prime Minister of Greece
 
A couple of British public figures you might be familiar with is activist and Journalist Tommy Robinson (b.1982) and Milo Yiannopoulos (b.1984). Both these men I know to an extent and they are Reactives, although late wave ones.
 
Millennial: Sebastian Kurz (Austrian Chancellor), Luigi Di Maio (Italian deputy Prime Minister and leader of the Five Star Movement). Both are first wave European Millennials both being born in 1986.
 
There is a massive struggle currently going on between the Pro-European and Eurospetic parties across the European Union. Brexit is only one manifestation of it and the Eurosceptic are far from united. The hard variety are like the UK Independence Party who out of the EU completely, while the "soft" variety (which Viktor Orban is an example) is an example prefer to reform it and give more powers to the individual member states especially over areas such as immigration.
 
The "soft" variety of Eurospceptic dominates in the relatively poorer Eastern and Southern European countries, while the "hard" variety dominates in wealthier Western Europe countries. Ireland is a exception to this general rule, the voting public there is pro-European Union in contrast with the Eurosceptic United Kingdom.
 
The whole migrant crisis I believe has been that moment that the Fourth Turning has crystallized, and the issue will be the future of the European Union. There is a reasonable chance that the European Union will collapse, however I believe the Millennials in the European Union could very well be for 'European project' (they certainly are in the United Kingdom). While the older generations (especially X'er peers) that are driving a lot of opposition to the European Union. The migrant crisis which was triggered by the wars in Libya and Syria have seen hundreds of thousands of migrants crossing into Europe and fueling the rise of populist, Eurosceptic and anti-immigration parties. 
 
Also, since a large proportion of these immigrants are Muslims, there has been rising anti-Muslim sentiment across Europe. This sentiment has been helped by the Muslim populations in Western European countries mostly living in ethnic enclaves in the cities, being not very well integrated into the broader societies even for the second and third generation and a large proportion subsiding off government benefits. 
 
This sense of alienation from the general society groups among the Millennial peers in the Muslim communities in Europe has been fertile ground for Islamist groups which have been behind committed terrorist acts in many Western European countries. These attacks have further fueled these populist, Eurosceptic nationalist parties which have anti-Muslim views. 
 
Given what I have described above what has happened Western Europe with the Muslim immigrant countries. The countries of Eastern Europe such Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary have refused to accept any Muslim immigrants or agree to “asylum seeker” distribution among the member nations as proposed by the European Union. I believe it is because of fears that if large Muslim immigrant populations were established in their nations, the same could happen to them. 
 
The GFC and the migrant crisis have also meant in a rise in authoritarianism across the continent with Liberal Democracy under serious threat or already have disappeared in some European Union nations. Hungary for example under the rule of Viktor Orban’s government is a illiberal democracy. It is also notable for a very hard-line attitude against any Muslim migration and build a fence inside it's border during the migrant crisis to keep Muslim immigrants out.

[Teejay]

United Kingdom:
 
Brexit is something Strauss and Howe predicted that during the Fourth Turning there would be a reaction against globalization and reassertion of nationalism. However, the United Kingdom is not the only country in the European Union a referendum was held. If I were to predict a country that could exit the European Union next, it would be Sweden. The Swedish Democrats a party which is in favour of such a referendum could become kingmakers after the general election very soon. 
 
The Brexit referendum was deeply divisive for Britain, the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States would be a very apt example. Overall 52% of British voters chose to leave the EU, although there were Generational and regional differences. The Millennial peers voted strongly for remain, while older Generations voted strongly for leave. Also, Greater London, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted strongly for remain. While former industrial heartlands of Northern England and the Midlands voted strongly for leave.
 
There is also something that has happened in Britain which is their own version of the Bernie Sanders phenomenon. This was rise of what I consider a ‘socialist dinosaur’ Jeremy Corbyn (who is a member of Generation 68') to the leadership of the Labour Party and it almost winning the last British General election can be attributed to his activation of the sheer power of the Millennial vote. 

Currently the governing Conservative Party are in a mess over the handling of Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn has reasonably good odds now to become the next Prime Minister of Britain. However, Theresa May could face a leadership challenge in the future. As I see two men are likely to replace her Boris Johnson (b.1960) and Jacob Rees Mogg (b.1968), if you ever read him up he is literally a middle age version of one of those nerds from ‘Revenge of the Nerds’.

Britain is not immune from the rising authoritarianism which has characterized the whole of Europe. Because of Islamist terrorist attacks which have occurred and fears of right-wing extremism, the United Kingdom government has introduced curbs on civil liberties which are seen as counter-terrorism measures. There are observations that have been made that Britain is becoming a police state. People in Britain and elsewhere in Western Europe have been predicting a civil war between the Muslim immigrant populations and the right-wing extremists.

[Ragnarök_62]

Awesome! The yellow vest rebellion in France and now spreading.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-1...oss-europe

Ah yes, Macrononi sure showed himself as a clueless elite here.  It's time for him to go.  He shoulda used Rag's idea by using a carbon tax coupled with a citizen's dividend. Just collect the tax and rebate it to each citizen household as a UBI. Macrononi used a diesel tax which screws working folks but no jet fuel tax for his high flying cronies.

Finally, a color revolution I can believe in.

[Hintergrund]

@Teejay: Yeah, Cameron gambled (he's an Xer, if generations in England are the same as in the US) re: Brexit, but lost. And now he's out.

[pbrower2a]

This is juicy. The ruling right-wing Party in Austria has lost much credibility due to a scandal.


The Ibiza affair (German: Ibiza-Affäre) is an ongoing political scandal in Austria involving Heinz-Christian Strache, the former Vice-Chancellor of Austria and leader of the Freedom Party (FPÖ); Johann Gudenus, a deputy leader of the Freedom Party; and both the Austrian Freedom Party and Austria's political landscape in general.

The scandal was triggered on 17 May 2019 by the publication of a secretly recorded video of a meeting in Ibiza, Spain, in July 2017, which appears to show the then opposition politicians Strache and Gudenus discussing their party's underhanded practices and intentions.[1][2][3] In the video, both politicians appeared receptive to proposals by a woman posing as the niece of a Russian oligarch, discussing providing the FPÖ with positive news coverage in return for government contracts. Strache and Gudenus also hinted at corrupt political practices involving numerous other wealthy donors to the FPÖ in Europe and elsewhere.

The scandal caused the collapse of the Austrian governing coalition on 18 May 2019 and the announcement of an early election.[4][5][6]

 
On 17 May 2019, Der Spiegel and the Süddeutsche Zeitung reported that in 2017, Strache and Freedom Party member Johann Gudenus had been offered electoral support by a woman posing as the niece of a Russian oligarch named Igor Makarov.[7] The source of the allegations was a video secretly recorded at a rented villa on Ibiza in July 2017, which apparently shows Strache agreeing to offer the woman assistance in acquiring business contracts in Austria in exchange for rendering support in the upcoming election in Austria (October 2017).[3] Five people took part in the videotaped meeting, according to the German news outlets, which had examined parts of the tape but had not released the full recordings available to them. Those persons included Heinz-Christian Strache; a woman who said she was the niece of a Russian oligarch; an interpreter (who came with her); another Freedom Party official, Johann Gudenus, who appears to have set up the meeting; and Gudenus's wife, Tajana[3] (née Tajčić).[8] The persons spoke in English, German, and Russian.[9]

In the footage, according to Der Spiegel, Strache told the putative investor that he had visited Russia on many occasions and that he had had meetings with advisers of Russia's president Vladimir Putin with a view to forging a "strategic collaboration".[3] He agreed to the woman's suggestion that she might help his party in the 2017 election by buying the mass-circulation tabloid, the Kronen Zeitung; Strache further suggested that she donate funds through their party associations that would be difficult to audit.[3][9]

During the conversation in the footage, Strache said he had contacts with Israelis who opposed left-wing politics in Israel, and that he had been invited to China to promote business between Austria and China. Strache appears to have said that the companies Glock Ges.m.b.H. and Novomatic, and investors Heidi Horten and René Benko, had made large donations to both the FPÖ and the ÖVP using nonprofit associations, an allegation that all have denied.
Strache also said that Hans Peter Haselsteiner, a major shareholder of the construction company Strabag, would no longer receive commissions by government.[9]

In the video, Strache is recorded to have said he wanted to "build a media landscape like Orbán".[10]

 
The highly professional setup of the apparent trap, the amount of time and money expended on preparing and realising it, made Germany's Die Welt wonder who might have been behind this operation meant to create what the newspaper referred to as Kompromat (incriminating material to be used at the right moment to undermine one's enemy), which had been held back for two years and made public days before the European Parliament election to be held in May 2019.[14]

Austria's newspaper of record, Wiener Zeitung, linked Germany's political activist group, Zentrum für Politische Schönheit, to the creation of the video, in view of its prior activity as well as the suspicious behaviour on Twitter, the group being the first to follow a new account that was the first to tweet about the initial publication of the video′s content.[15]

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz pointed out the similarities to methods used by Israeli election adviser Tal Silberstein [de][16] who had been detained for questioning on money-laundering charges in Israel prior to the 2017 Austrian election.[17] Silberstein was accused in Austria of having used methods of negative campaigning in support of the SPÖ in the 2017 election.[18]

German newspaper BILD speculated that Austrian lawyer Ramin Mirfakhrai, who was born in Tehran, and a Austrian detective living in Munich are behind this operation.[19]

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibiza_affair

[freivolk]

The European elections brought some interessting result, which show the change of the generational dynamic. naturally you have to keep in mind, that the voter turnout is lower then in the regular national elections and the people tend to "experiment" more with their vote.

Normal results:




Results people under 30: