Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Dec-16 World View -- EU agrees to grant visa-free travel to people of Ukraine and Georgia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine still on track to host Eurovision song contest in 2017
  
• Ukraine war: fighting just to carry on fighting
  
• EU agrees to grant visa-free travel to people of Ukraine and Georgia
  

****
**** Ukraine still on track to host Eurovision song contest in 2017
****


Jamala, after winning the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest (DPA)

The European Broadcasting Union (EBU) announced on Thursday announced,
"Contrary to media reports, we can confirm there are no plans to move
the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest to Moscow."

Ukraine won the 2016 Eurovision contest in May, and according to
rules, will be the host of the 2017 contest. However, Russia is
objecting that Ukraine is too financially strapped to be able to host
the multinational spectacle. Russia is also objecting that Ukraine is
threatening to forbid attendance by anyone who supported Russia's
invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula.

The core of the dispute is that the Ukraine singer Jamala (actual name
Susana Jamaladinova) won the contest in May with an extremely
emotional song called "1944" that appeared to allude to Russia's 1944
deportation of 240,000 ethnic Tatars from Crimea to Siberia and
Central Asia. Jamala herself is an ethnic Tatar, whose
great-grandmother was deported, along with five children.

Thursday's announcement by the EBU is intended to reassure the public
that the issues have been resolved, and that the 2017 contest will be
held in Ukraine. Deutsche Welle and Telegraph (London, 11-May-2016) and Youtube - Jamala's performance at Eurovision

****
**** Ukraine war: fighting just to carry on fighting
****

According to France 24's Ukraine correspondent Gulliver Cragg, there
is no sign that the war in Ukraine is ending, but it's not going
anywhere either. The two sides are just fighting because of the
political benefits that they gain as long as the war continues.

In 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine, with troops and equipment to support
separatists who wanted to break off the entire eastern portion of
Ukraine and annex it to Russia. That hasn't happened, but Russia also
invaded Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and annexed it made it part of the
Russian federation.

However, the war in eastern Ukraine between the Ukrainian army,
supported by the government in Kiev, and the Russian separatists,
supported by Russian troops and equipment. The following interview
excerpts occurred on RFI (my transcription):

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I don't see very many signs of things changing in any
> major way in the near future in the east. It's important to
> stress this war is very much ongoing. People are being killed
> everyday pretty much.
>
> It pales in comparison to what's going on in Syria - the death
> toll is far far lower, thankfully, and civilians are bearing less
> of the brunt of it than they were in 2014-15. The casualties tend
> to be military casualties on both sides.
>
> And there's no clear sign of what people are trying to do.
> There's no evident attempt to take more territory by either side.
> It seems like, in a lot of ways, and I think there's quite a lot
> of evidence for this, they are mostly just carrying on fighting in
> order to carry on fighting.
>
> The separatists need an excuse as to why life in the areas they
> control is so bad - why they aren't managing to build these pseudo
> states properly, and the easy thing to do is to blame the
> Ukrainians "who keep bombing us."
>
> The Ukrainians find the war -- this is perhaps a cynical analysis
> -- but I think that there is an extent to which it's true -- the
> Ukrainians -- although and I would always stress that they did not
> start this war --- but now there's a situation where the more it
> goes on, they don't have to face the impossible task of applying
> the Minsk peace agreement which was signed in February 2015, which
> is actually basically impossible for Ukraine to comply with. They
> could never get the vote in parliament needed to pass the measures
> that they promised Russia they would pass. So as long as the
> fighting goes on, they don't have to do that."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

RFI video

Related Articles

• Fears grow that a new Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent (12-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Russian combat troops, tanks and artillery pour into Ukraine (13-Nov-2014)
  
  
• UK honors the journalist who documented Stalin's man-made 1932-33 famine in Ukraine (22-Nov-2009)
  
  
• Who poisoned Ukraine opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko? / Putin (11-Dec-2004)
  

****
**** EU agrees to grant visa-free travel to people of Ukraine and Georgia
****

France 24 Ukraine correspondent Gulliver Cragg went on to say that
what the Ukrainian government wants most of all from the EU is
visa-free travel for Ukrainians throughout the Schengen zone. (This
is the same issue as with Turkey, which wants visa-free travel for
Turkish citizens throughout the Schengen zone.)

In fact, the European Parliament on Thursday reached an agreement to
grant visa-free travel to the people of Ukraine and Georgia. Under
the terms of the agreement, visa-free travel can be quickly terminated
after an investigation following a request by an EU nation. The deal
still needs to be officially approved by the entire European
Parliament, which is expected next week.

However, Cragg adds that visa-free travel won't be of much use to
Ukrainians:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"That's the one small piece of good news -- that
> they're gonna get this visa-free travel, but it's not really gonna
> impact that many Ukrainians because they can't really afford to
> travel to Europe most of them. So there are those who will find
> it a bit easier to go to Europe and work illegally on short term
> temporary contracts, in Poland and Italy and things like that -
> that will make their lives a bit easier -- but they're still gonna
> be working illegally, because this visa-free access doesn't allow
> them to work."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

If approved, then Ukraine and Georgia will join the United States,
Canada, Australia, Brazil, Israel, and Japan as countries having
visa-free travel. Foreign Policy and European Parliament


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Eurovision, Russia, Crimea,
Jamala, Susana Jamaladinova, 1944, Tatars,
France24, Gulliver Cragg, Georgia

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Dec-16 World View -- Erdogan says some Greek islands should really belong to Turkey

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• A new terrorist bombing in Istanbul Turkey kills dozens
  
• Erdogan says some Greek islands should really belong to Turkey
  
• Greece delays extraditing Turkish officers implicated in coup attempt
  

****
**** A new terrorist bombing in Istanbul Turkey kills dozens
****


Turkish man with four wives has his 32nd child. (Hurriyet)

At least 29 people were killed and another 166 were injured on
Saturday because of two terrorist bombings near a soccer stadium in
central Istanbul. The first was a car bomb. The second was a suicide
bomber who detonated the bomb 45 seconds after the car bomb. It's
believed that the intent was to maximize casualties.

Turkey has been plagued in the last year by a series of terrorist
bombing and gun attacks by the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party
(PKK) and by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh).

The last major attack on Istanbul occurred on June 28 with three
coordinated suicide bombings at Ataturk National Airport, killing at
least 36 people. That attack was blamed on ISIS. Since that time
there have been at least two terrorist attacks in southeastern Turkey,
thought to be perpetrated by the PKK.

In addition, the government is still in crisis following the July 15
coup attempt. As ordered by president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, well over
100,000 people have been fired or jailed as a result, including
military officers, government officials and schoolteachers.

Turkey has placed a gag order on reporting Saturday's attack. No one
has been publicly blamed, but it's thought that ISIS was responsible.
Hurriyet (Istanbul) and Reuters and AP

Related Articles

• Terrorist car bomb in southern Turkey kills two
  
  
• Turkey's PM declares 'all-out war' after new PKK truck bomb attack (27-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Bombing of Turkey's airport affects a swirl of diplomatic actions (29-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** Erdogan says some Greek islands should really belong to Turkey
****

For several months, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been
complaining about the Lausanne Treaty that was signed on July 24,
1923. On September 27, he said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"They (threatened) us with [the Treaty of Sèvres] in
> 1920 and persuaded us to accept Lausanne in 1923. Some tried to
> deceive us by presenting Lausanne as a victory. At Lausanne, we
> gave away the (Greek) islands that you could shout across to. We
> are still struggling about what the continental shelf will be and
> what will be in the air and land. The reason for this is due to
> those who sat at the table during that treaty. Those who sat there
> did not do us justice and we are reaping those troubles right
> now. If the (recent) coup had succeeded, they would have given us
> a treaty that would have made us long for Sèvres."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Erdogan's remarks have been heavily criticized by Greece. Perhaps
more surprisingly, the comments were also criticized by the opposition
party in Turkey.

An official of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Gülsün Bilgehan,
said that the Lausanne Treaty was the title deed of the Turkish
Republic:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Erdogan can learn the importance of Lausanne from the
> cabinet meetings which he chairs these days. Because Lausanne is
> the title deed of the Turkish Republic and a certificate of honor
> for those who signed it as Mr. Erdogan said in his message. In his
> speech today, he said ‘They cannot make us take one step back even
> if the whole world comes together.’ I invite him to read a real
> history book based on documents telling about Lausanne and Ismet
> Pasha [Inönü] to learn how it was made."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Greece's Foreign Ministry issued a statement two days ago saying that
the sovereignty of Greece over its Aegean islands "is unquestionable
and guaranteed by international law. Irresponsible reports to the
contrary are challenging because the status of the islands and islets
of the Aegean is clearly determined by a number of International
Agreements in the last century." Greek Reporter and Hurriyet (Ankara) and History of Lausanne Treaty and Yeni Safak (Ankara)

****
**** Greece delays extraditing Turkish officers implicated in coup attempt
****

Since July 15, Turkey has been demanding the extradition of eight
Turkish soldiers who fled to northern Greece after the coup. The
eight soldiers, included two commanders, four captains and two
sergeants, had escaped to Greece on a Sikorsky helicopter and landed
in Alexandroupolis. The soldiers denied involvement in the coup, but
said that they would not receive a fair trial in Turkey.

Greece has refused to extradite them without an appropriate court
hearing. On Monday of last week, a Greek court ruled that three of
the eight Turkish soldiers should not be extradited. On Tuesday and
Thursday, the same court said that the other five SHOULD be
extradited. Officials in both Greece and Turkey say that they are
puzzled by these seemingly conflicting rulings.

All of these decisions will be reviewed by an appeals court, and a
final decision may not be made until March. This delay is expected to
increase tensions between Greece and Turkey.

Wars between Greece and Turkey go back millennia, even celebrated in
Greek mythology in the story of the Trojan Horse and the fall of Troy.
In 1974, the countries fought a war over the island of Cyprus, with
the result that the small island is split between a Greek portion and
a Turkish portion. Cyprus unification talks are scheduled to begin
soon, but with tensions growing between Greece and Turkey, they are
unlikely to succeed. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Kathimerini (Athens) and Anadolu (Turkey)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Istanbul, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Greece,
Lausanne Treaty, Treaty of Sèvres,
Republican People’s Party, CHP, Gülsün Bilgehan, Cyprus

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(12-05-2016, 09:58 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > John X, Your ideas regarding the keeping the Truman doctrine
> regarding Taiwan is problematic because it expose the US to attack
> whenever Beijing finally decides it wants to conquer
> Taiwan. Repudiating the alliance would certainly expose Taiwan to
> invasion, but without the US alliance, a Chinese invasion of
> Taiwan wouldn't automatically mean a US vs China WW3. Regarding
> the possibility of trump walking back from proposed deportations,
> doing so would be a destabilizing factor in American internal
> stability because deportations would free up Jobs for Native-Born
> american use, and secondly would satiate nationalist and patriotic
> sentiments that caused his election in the first place thus
> stabilizing the US economy and American society.

The Taiwan issue really has nothing to do with the Truman doctrine any
more, as we have a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan, and we're
committed to providing a stream of weapons to allow Taiwan to defend
itself from a possible attack from China.

I've talked to people about the Taiwan issue for 12-13 years, and one
thing I've learned is that there would be huge outrage among the
politicians and the military to any attempt to repudiate the mutual
defense treaty. To the contrary, if China attacks Taiwan, then we'll
be at war with China within six hours. China knows that, and that's
why they haven't attacked so far -- that's where the Truman Doctrine
comes in.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Dec-16 World View -- Terror bombing of Coptic Christian church in Cairo Egypt kills 25

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Furious Turkey vows revenge, as PKK/TAK takes credit for Istanbul bombing
  
• Terror bombing of Coptic Christian church in Cairo Egypt kills 25
  
• Europeans call Cairo bombing 'terror', but not the Istanbul bombing
  

****
**** Furious Turkey vows revenge, as PKK/TAK takes credit for Istanbul bombing
****


Aftermath of terrorist double-bombing in Istanbul on Saturday (Hurriyet)

The Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), a terrorist offshoot of the
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), has claimed responsibility for the
double bombing
in Istanbul on
Saturday. At least 38 people were killed, and 155 were injured.

The TAK has already taken credit for a February 17 attack in Ankara,
killing 28 people, a March 13 bombing in Ankara that killed 37 people,
and a June 8 attack in Istanbul that killed 11 people. There were at
least three other terror attacks in Turkey this year, perpetrated by
the PKK and by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh), and there was also the July 15 coup attempt.

The Turkish people feel vulnerable and afraid, and a furious president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed revenge:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"They should know that we won’t leave them
> unpunished. They should know that they are going to pay a heavy
> price. My people should have no doubt that we will carry out the
> struggle against terror until the very end. We wore our burial
> robes when we took this road. ...
>
> No one should have any doubt about our fight against terrorism.
> We are the owners of this country and will not leave it to those
> scum if they aim to scare us with such attacks."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Interior minister Süleyman Soylu said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Sooner or later, we will have our vengeance. This
> blood will not be left on the ground, no matter what the price,
> what the cost."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Hurriyet (Ankara) and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

• A new terrorist bombing in Istanbul Turkey kills dozens (11-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's PM declares 'all-out war' after new PKK truck bomb attack (27-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Bombing of Turkey's airport affects a swirl of diplomatic actions (29-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** Terror bombing of Coptic Christian church in Cairo Egypt kills 25
****

At least 25 people were killed and 49 others injured on Sunday morning
in a terrorist explosion in the chapel of St Peter and St Paul
(El-Botroseya) adjoining Saint Mark's Coptic Orthodox Cathedral in
Cairo Egypt. No one has yet claimed responsibility.

Cairo has not yet had a chance to recover from two terror attacks on
Friday. First, an IED placed next to two security roadblocks in Giza
killed six security personnel, and injured three others. Next, also
on Friday, one civilian was killed and three security personnel were
injured by a bomb in Egypt’s Kafr Al-Sheikh governorate.

Sunday's explosion took place during Sunday prayers. In these
services, the men site on one side of the church, and the women sit on
the other side. Apparently the bomb was brought in by a woman, and so
most of the casualties were women.

A furious president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi called the Sunday attack a
part of "a war against the great Egyptian people," and he vowed to put
on trial all who have "incited, facilitated or participated" in the
terrorist attack.

Orthodox Copts, who comprise about 10 percent of Egypt's 90 million
people, are the Middle East's biggest Christian community.

Violence in general has been growing in Egypt since the "Arab spring'
in 2011 that resulted in the ouster of long-time dictator Hosni
Mubarak, either because of terror attacks by al-Qaeda or so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), or because of clashes
between different groups of Egyptians, including clashes between the
army and peacefully protesting civilians. This has included sectarian
violence between Muslim and Coptic Christians.

The worst attack on Copts occurred several weeks before the Arab
Spring, with an explosion in the Two Saints Church in Alexandria on
New Year's Day 2011, killing 23. There was also a bloody massacre of
Coptic Christians in November of that year, and there has have been
several minor attacks on Coptic churches since the ouster of Mohammed
Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government in 2013. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Daily News Egypt and Reuters

Related Articles

• Worldwide condemnation for terrorist attack on Coptic Christian church in Alexandria, Egypt (02-Jan-2011)
  
  
• Egypt in shock over bloody massacre of Coptic Christians (11-Oct-2011)
  
  
• Criticism of Egypt's armed forces intensifies after 'Black Sunday' Copt massacre (12-Oct-2011)
  
  
• Muslim vs Coptic Christian clashes in Egypt grow in intensity (08-Apr-2013)
  
  
• Egypt in mourning as ISIS-linked terrorists kill Coptic Christians in Libya (16-Feb-2015)
  

****
**** Europeans call Cairo bombing 'terror', but not the Istanbul bombing
****

According to Egyptian media, European governments have been falling
all over each other saying that they would stand by Egypt after this
terrorist attack, and support Egypt's fight against terrorism. Such
remarks were issued in statements by France's president François
Hollande. Germany's foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, UK
ambassador to Cairo John Casson, among others.

However, Turkey's media points out that statements by European
officials refuse to use the word "terror." Martin Schulz, president
of the European Parliament, said, "My thoughts & solidarity with
Turkish citizens, with families of victims of Istanbul attacks. I wish
speedy and full recovery to the injured." Other officials made
similar statements.

However, there was one exception. Tomas Zdechovsky, a Czech member of
the European Parliament, said that the terrorist group PKK must be
banned from Europe. "There is no difference between Istanbul and
Paris, Brussels attacks targeting civilians. Terrorism never
succeeds, terrorists never win," he said. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Anadolu (Ankara)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Istanbul, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Kurdistan Freedom Falcons, TAK,
Süleyman Soylu,
Egypt, chapel of St Peter and St Paul, El-Botroseya,
Saint Mark's Coptic Orthodox Cathedral,
Kafr Al-Sheikh, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Hosni Mubarak,
Mohammed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood
France, François Hollande. Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier,
Britain, John Casson, Tomas Zdechovsky

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Dec-16 World View -- Italy's bank crisis seems likely to cost thousands of people their savings

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt's Christians demand revenge after Sunday's church bombing
  
• Italy's bank crisis seems likely to cost thousands of people their savings
  

****
**** Egypt's Christians demand revenge after Sunday's church bombing
****


Egyptian Christians shout slogans in front of riot police outside a Cairo church on Monday (Reuters)

Egyptian Christians are blaming the government for Sunday's suicide
bombing that killed 24 people and injured 49 in a chapel adjacent to
St. Mark’s Cathedral, Cairo’s largest church and home of Coptic Pope
Tawadros II. Some are demanding the fall of the regime.

According to witnesses, the police didn't perform the usual checks and
searches of people entering the Church. According to one witness,
"There were police cars stationed in front of the church
gates. ... They were too busy eating breakfast and drinking tea and
soda. They weren’t doing their job."

Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi blamed the Muslim
Brotherhood. However, the Muslim Brotherhood has denied this, and no
one has claimed responsibility, but the only people celebrating on
social media were supporters of the so-called Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), who wrote, "God bless the person who did this
blessed act." Al Arabiya and Reuters and AFP

Related Articles

• Terror bombing of Coptic Christian church in Cairo Egypt kills 25 (12-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Egypt in shock over bloody massacre of Coptic Christians (11-Oct-2011)
  

****
**** Italy's bank crisis seems likely to cost thousands of people their savings
****

We've been reporting Italy's banking crisis for a while now, and
there's always been uncertainty about which of several paths it would
take. After the events of the last week, a lot of that uncertainty
has vanished, but the result isn't what would be hoped.

Italy held a referendum last Sunday on a change to the constitution
that would make Italy's government more stable. Prime minister Matteo
Renzi had promised to resign if the referendum was defeated. Italy's
Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), founded in 1472, and the
world's oldest operating bank, was hoping that the referendum would
pass, since they believed that would make it more likely that
investors would lend the bank 5 billion euros to make a debt repayment
and avoid a bank crisis for a few more months.

Well, the referendum was voted down. Renzi resigned, as promised.
Italy has a new prime minister, the outgoing foreign minister, Paolo
Gentiloni, who took office on Monday. But whether investors would
lend MPS 5 billion euros is still in doubt, and considered less
likely. Hope is not dead, as there's still a chance that Qatar's
sovereign wealth fund, the Qatar Investment Authority, will lend MPS
one billion euros, and that will encourage other investors to provide
the other four.

Failing that, Italy's government will have to bail out MPS. Under
European Central Bank (ECB) rules that were imposed because of
Greece's banking crisis, a government bailout of MPS would require a
"bail-in" of MPS's bond holders.

For almost all banks, the bond holders are sophisticated investors who
purchased bonds issued by the bank as an investment. But MPS is
unique, in that thousands of ordinary people, including many elderly
savers, who wanted to deposit their money in savings accounts instead
were sold bank bonds by the bank's staff. The result is that a
"bail-in" of supposedly sophisticated investors will actually cause
tens of thousands of people to lose their life savings.

MPS asked the ECB for a few more weeks' time to get the loans, but the
request was rejected by the ECB. As a result, either MPS must get its
loans this week, or else the new prime minister Paolo Gentiloni will
have to authorize a government bailout by next weekend. Guardian (London) and AP

Related Articles

• Sunday's referendum in Italy threatens EU's stability (02-Dec-2016)
  
  
• After Brexit and Trump, Italy's Five-Star-Movement may be the next surprise (18-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Italy bank crisis more dangerous to EU than Brexit (05-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Cairo, St. Mark's Cathedral,
Pope Tawadros II, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Muslim Brotherhood,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Italy, Matteo Renzi, Paolo Gentiloni, European Central Bank,
Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena, MPS

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Dec-16 World View -- US's Samantha Power makes excoriating attack on Syria's al-Assad, Russia, Iran

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's Al-Assad, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah score victory in Aleppo
  
• US's Samantha Power makes excoriating attack on Syria's al-Assad, Russia, Iran
  
• Human Rights Watch reveals more ethnic cleansing imagery from Burma (Myanmar)
  

****
**** Syria's Al-Assad, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah score victory in Aleppo
****


A family of Sunni 'terrorists' flee the fighting in Aleppo (Reuters)

It took four armies, but Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is claiming
victory in recapturing Aleppo from anti-Assad rebels. A year ago,
al-Assad himself said that his army was close to being defeated. But
then his three allies stepped up their military support with people,
weapons and bombs, and al-Assad is finally able to declare victory.

According to Matthew Rycroft, the UK ambassador to the UN:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Al-Assad's forces, propped up by Russia and Iran,
> have once again redefined horror. They have gone from siege to
> slaughter.
>
> Today the United Nations has received reports that pro-government
> forces have been entering homes in Eastern Aleppo. They have been
> going door to door, executing people on the spot. 82 people
> murdered. 13 of whom were women. 11 were children. None were
> terrorists.
>
> We have heard reports of women committing suicide, in order not to
> be raped. We have heard reports of people being burnt alive. We
> have heard reports that hundreds of men have disappeared fleeing
> Aleppo, taken by the regime. All these reports evoke the darkest
> days of the history of the United Nations.
>
> When it happened before, we said never again. Well, it is
> happening again, today."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

As I've been writing for a long time, Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad is the worst genocidal monster so far in this century. He
continues a line of monsters from the previous century that include
Josef Stalin, Adolf Hitler, Mao Zedong, Pol Pot, and others.

The civil war in Syria was caused by al-Assad when he unleashed his
army and air force against peaceful protesters in 2011. Up to that
point, Turkey and Saudi Arabia were friendly with al-Assad. Things
really turned around in August 2011, when al-Assad launched a massive
military assault on a large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in
Latakia, filled with tens of thousands of women and children
Palestinians.

This attack alone shows that al-Assad's fight is not with
"terrorists," but with innocent Sunni civilians. Al-Assad is a member
of a Shia Alawite clan that has historically fought many wars with
Sunnis. To al-Assad, Sunni civilians are nothing but cockroaches to
be exterminated.

Al-Assad's genocidal extermination campaign on these "cockroaches" has
been a geopolitical disaster. Tens of thousands of young Sunnis
traveled to Syria to fight al-Assad, creating the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Syrians themselves formed the
"moderate" Free Syrian Army (FSA), or else joined al-Qaeda linked
Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front, now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS).
Millions of Syrians were killed or displaced, and well over a million
of them have fled to Europe to escape the violence.

Bashar al-Assad has the delusional view that after capturing Aleppo,
the war will quickly end. Al-Assad required three other armies to
capture Aleppo. Al-Assad started the civil war not because rebels
were taking up arms, but because civilians were peacefully protesting.
If civilians begin peacefully protesting again, will al-Assad attack
them again, and ask those three other armies to come back? UK Government and ARA News (Syria)

Related Articles

• UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas (07-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Syria's al-Assad goes for the kill, turning Aleppo and civilians to bloody rubble (24-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** US's Samantha Power makes excoriating attack on Syria's al-Assad, Russia, Iran
****

Many people, especially in the Mideast, blame al-Assad's geopolitical
disaster on inaction by the Barack Obama administration, especially
Obama's "red line" flip-flop on intervening when al-Assad used Sarin
gas on his own innocent civilians. It's impossible to know what the
outcome of intervention at that time would have been, but many people
believe that the worse of the genocide would have been avoided.

In fact, the Obama administration and many Western administrations
went farther, and avoided saying anything that might appear as a
criticism of al-Assad, Russia or Iran. However, several years of
built-up anger seemed to explode at the UN Security Council on
Tuesday, with the excoriating remarks of American's UN ambassador
Samantha Power:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"To the Assad regime, Russia, and Iran, three member
> states, behind the conquest of and carnage in Aleppo. You bear
> responsibility for these atrocities by rejecting UN ICRC
> evacuation efforts, you are signaling to those militia who are
> massacring innocents to keep doing what they are doing. Denying
> or obfuscating the facts, as you will do today, saying up is down,
> black is white, will not absolve you. When one day there is a
> full accounting of the horrors committed in this assault of Aleppo
> - and that day will come sooner or later -- you will not be able
> to say you did know what is happening, you will not be able to say
> you were not involved.
>
> We all know what was happening, and we all know you were involved.
> Aleppo will join the ranks of those events in world history that
> define modern evil, that stain our conscience decades later.
> Halabja, Rwanda, Srebrenica, and now Aleppo.
>
> To the Assad regime, Russia, and Iran, your forces and proxies are
> carrying out these crimes. Your barrel bombs and mortars and
> airstrikes have allowed the militia in Aleppo to encircle tens of
> thousands of civilians in your ever tightening noose.
>
> It is your noose. Three member states of the UN contributing to a
> noose around civilians. It should shame you. Instead, by all
> appearances, it is emboldening you. You are plotting your next
> assault. Are you truly incapable of shame? Is there literally
> nothing that can shame you?
>
> Is there no act of barbarism against civilians, no execution of a
> child, that gets under your skin? That just creeps you out a
> little bit? Is there nothing you will not lie about, or
> justify?"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vitali Churkin, responded as if he were
talking about another place altogether:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The vast majority of the former members of the
> illegal armed groups that have handed themselves over to the
> authorities as a result of the amnesty and have gone through the
> procedures have been returned to their families. The most
> important thing is, the counterterrorist operation in Aleppo will
> conclude in the next few hours."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In fact, as the previous quote from Matthew Rycroft indicates, reports
reaching the BBC and other media sources say that Sunnis who "hand
themselves over" to the Syrian army authorities are most likely to be
immediately shot. In fact, we can't believe any garbage that comes
out of the mouths of Vitali Churkin, Bashar al-Assad, or Vladimir
Putin. Middle East Eye

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• US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement (11-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** Human Rights Watch reveals more ethnic cleansing imagery from Burma (Myanmar)
****

In the past few months, satellite photography provided by Human Rights
Watch has documented that 30,000 ethnic Rohingyas living in Burma's
(Myanmar's) Rakhine state have been left homeless after their homes
and villages have been systematically burned down.

Few people doubt that the perpetrators are Burma's army, conducting
ethnic cleansing . The BBC has broadcast footage of an undercover
road trip through the region, including interviews who says that their
husbands were burnt and killed by soldiers, and that they were
repeatedly raped by soldiers.

Burma's government has been making the ridiculous claim that the
Rohingyas are burning down their own homes and villages to embarrass
the government. This is the kind of garbage that we always get from
Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin, and now from officials of Burma.

So Human Rights Watch has released new imagery that shows a village
being burnt down as multiple military transport vehicles and the
periodic landing of military helicopters move about.

Nobel prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, who is the de facto leader
of Burma, is losing her luster as a human rights icon. So far,
Western leaders and media have given her the benefit of the doubt,
suggesting that she was unable to control the army.

But more and more, the question is arising whether she's a full
participant in and supporter of the ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas,
having the same hatreds as other Burmese leaders. Human Rights Watch

Related Articles

• Asian jihadists become radicalized by Burma's (Myanmar's) Rohingya slaughter (07-Dec-2016)
  
  
• UN: Burma (Myanmar) committing 'ethnic cleansing' of Rohingyas (29-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
  
  
• Buddhist violence against Muslims in Burma/Myanmar continues to spread (03-Oct-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Bashar al-Assad,
Josef Stalin, Adolf Hitler, Mao Zedong, Pol Pot,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Iran, Hezbollah, Matthew Rycroft, Samantha Power,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Free Syrian Army, Russia, Vitali Churkin, Halabja, Rwanda, Srebrenica,
Burma, Myanmar, Rohingyas, Rakhine state, Aung San Suu Kyi

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Dec-16 World View -- Greece financial crisis threatened after Tsipras announces new spending program

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Greece financial crisis threatened after Tsipras announces new spending program
  
• IMF says that Greece's budget must be 'more growth-friendly'
  

****
**** Greece financial crisis threatened after Tsipras announces new spending program
****


Alexis Tsipras in Athens on November 28 (Reuters)

A new disagreement between Greece and Greece's three creditor
institutions -- the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European
Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB), formerly known as
the "troika" -- is threatening to catapult Greece into a major new
financial crisis by Christmas.

This has been going on for years, and as we've written many times in
the past, there is no solution to Greece's financial crisis. It's not
that no one has been clever enough to figure out a solution. It's
that no solution exists. Greece's government accumulated an enormous
amount of debt in the 2000s decade by repeatedly lying about its
income and expenses, and ever since the day of reckoning, it's been
clear that Greece will never be able to repay its debts.

If Greece declares bankruptcy, leaves the euro currency, and returns
to its original drachma currency, it will be a financial disaster for
the Greek people. And so, the three institutions have been kicking
the can down the road by repeatedly providing money, and by requiring
Greece to make various cuts in government programs, in order to give
the appearance of forcing some discipline on the government, even
though they know it will make little difference. Officials in Greece
make arguments that boil down to the following: We all know that
Greece is going to go deeper and deeper into debt anyway, so we might
as well just keep spending more money on social programs.

On December 5, the three institutions reached an agreement to a
bailout loan with enough more money to allow Greece to meet its next
debt repayment and avoid having to declare bankruptcy. At the same
time, they insisted that Greece's government adopt more reforms, thus
playing their part in the game. But Greece's prime minister Alexis
Tsipras didn't play the game. He announced that instead of reforms,
he would grant a pre-Christmas bonus to poor pensioners. In addition,
he will keep in place a discount in valued-added tax, to eastern
Aegean islands whose tourist industries have suffered because of the
crisis of refugees crossing from Turkey to Greece. He had previously
promised to scrap that discount as one of his commitments in return
for the latest bailout. Apparently he believes that he can get away
with this because of Greece's central role in the refugee crisis.

This sudden announcement has caused the December 5 agreement to fall
apart. The Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers issued a statement
saying that Tsipras's announcement appeared "to not be in line with
our agreements." The bailout loan has been put on hold, and the
institutions will now put into place a full investigation of Greece's
fiscal plans, before it will be reinstated. Kathimerini and Bloomberg

****
**** IMF says that Greece's budget must be 'more growth-friendly'
****


Left: Greece's tax collections have fallen sharply; right: More than 50% of Greece's household are exempt from paying any income tax at all (IMF)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is being blamed by many people
for demanding more austerity from Greece and threatening Greek people
with starvation.

The IMF is responding that it's not demanding any additional austerity
at all, but instead is asking that the public sector be restructured
to make it "more growth-friendly." The IMF makes the following
points:

• Over 50% of Greek households are exempted from paying any
  income tax at all (versus 8% average for the rest of the
  eurozone).
  
• As a result, less than half the households must pay extremely high
  tax rates, which makes it very difficult to raise taxes any
  further.
  
• Greece's social payments are so high that little is left for
  investment in Greece itself. As a result, decaying infrastructure is
  hampering growth and the delivery of basic public services such as
  transportation and health care is being compromised.
  
• A better solution, according to the IMF, would be to spread the
  tax burden to more people, so that tax rates can be lowered. Lower
  tax rates would be friendly to growth.
  
• Greece does not have the kind of unemployment compensation and
  other well-targeted social benefits that are commonplace elsewhere in
  Europe and that are critical for broad social support in a modern
  market-oriented economy.
  
• As a result, Greece has outdated laws restricting layoffs. Rather
  than provide unemployment benefits for laid off workers, the
  government restricts the ability of firms to lay the off, which
  inhibits growth. Allowing layoffs and providing unemployment benefits
  would be growth-friendly.
  
• Greece has no basic welfare benefits, which means that poor people
  cannot get welfare.
  
• But Greece has unreasonably high pensions, paid to the elderly.
  The result is an implicit transfer of money from the most vulnerable
  members of the working age population to older Greeks.

The IMF recommends that the authorities should further reduce current
pensions while increasing spending on a modern and well-targeted
welfare system to protect those that are most in need. More should be
spent on other essential public services and key public investments
too. IMF and IMF (PDF) and Newsweek

Related Articles

• Workers riot as Greece braces for new austerity measures (09-May-2016)
  
  
• IMF balks at new European bailout plan for Greece (26-May-2016)
  
  
• Alexis Tsipras' far-left Syriza party wins historic election in Greece (26-Jan-2015)
  
  
• Number of migrants reaching Greece surges since Turkey's attempted coup (18-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Increasingly desperate European Union threatens Greece over refugee crisis (13-Feb-2016)
  
  
• With Dubai threatening default, Greece enters the spotlight (30-Nov-2009)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Alexis Tsipras,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, European Commission (EC),
European Central Bank (ECB), Turkey, Eurozone

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Dec-16 World View -- India-Pakistan tensions rise as India celebrates 1971 victory over Pakistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India-Pakistan belligerent war of words continues to escalate
  
• World Bank declines to mediate Pakistan-India water dispute
  
• India celebrates its 1971 victory over Pakistan
  

****
**** India-Pakistan belligerent war of words continues to escalate
****


India celebrates its victory over Pakistan on December 16, 1971

India and Pakistan continue on the path to war with new
belligerent accusations.

The two countries maintained a veneer of civility for a few years, but
it fell apart on January 2 of this year when there was a terrorist
attack on an Indian air force base in Panthankot, Punjab. India
blamed the attack on Pakistan, and Pakistan said that India has staged
the encounter to defame Pakistan.

The most explosive event of the year occurred on July 8, when Burhan
Wani, the leader of a separatist group in Kashmir, was killed by
Indian police fire. Massive riots in Kashmir began the next day.
Indian police responded with rubber bullets, leaving many protesters
wounded or killed or blinded by the pellets, and that kind of violence
has been an almost daily occurrence since then. India has accused
Pakistan of actively supporting the riots, while Pakistan has incited
further violence by glorifying Burhan Wani.

On September 18, terrorists made a major attack on an Indian army base
in Uri in Kashmir. There was a five-hour firefight, and at least 17
soldiers were killed, as were the militants. This was the worst
militant terrorist attack in Kashmir in years. Once again, India
blamed Pakistan.

So this week, the war of words took another spike. India's
Home Minister Rajnath Singh on Sunday said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Pakistan is conspiring to divide India on religious
> lines, but it will not succeed. We were divided in 1947 on a
> religious basis. We have not been able to forget that... All
> Indians are brothers, whether they are born from the womb of a
> Hindu mother or a Muslim mother. ... Pakistan came into existence
> [in 1947] after India got divided on religious lines, but it could
> not keep itself united.
>
> Pakistan was divided into two countries in 1971. If it does not
> stop cross-border terrorism, it will soon be in 10
> pieces."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The interpretation of Singh's remarks is as follows:

• In 1947, the Indian subcontinent was partitioned into India
  and Pakistan along religious lines, Hindu and Muslim, respectively.
  This triggered the Partition War, one of the largest and bloodiest
  wars of the 20th century. Kashmir was the epicenter of the Partition
  War.
  
• After the 1947 partitioning, Pakistan was in two parts -- West
  Pakistan, which is the Pakistan we know today, and East Pakistan,
  which was at the opposition end of India, and is today's
  Bangladesh.
  
• In 1971, there was an extremely bloody war in East Pakistan
  between the Bengali-speaking Bengalis and the Urdu-speaking Biharis
  who were from India. Pakistan was on the side of the Biharis, and
  India was on the side of the Bengalis. Finally, Pakistan and the
  Biharis were forced to surrender, and the state of Bangladesh was
  formed. This is what Rajnath meant when he said that Pakistan was
  divided into two countries.
  
• Finally, Singh concludes with some hyperbole, saying that
  Pakistan will be broken up into 10 pieces unless it controls
  cross-border terrorism.

These remarks were interpreted by Pakistani officials as being
a threat.

Nafees Zakaria from Pakistan's foreign office responded by
saying that Singh's statement was an admission that India was
involved in terrorism in Pakistan:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Pakistan strongly condemned the absurd remarks of the
> Indian Home Minister [which were] in complete violation of
> all diplomatic norms, UN Charter and other international
> instruments. ...
>
> These remarks vindicate Pakistan’s long-standing position that
> Indian government and its intelligence agencies are involved in
> subversive and terrorist activities and terror financing in
> Pakistan to fuel tension and destabilize the country. The
> international community must take notice of such irresponsible
> statements and India-sponsored terrorism in
> Pakistan."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Indian Express and Daily Times (Pakistan) and New Indian Express

Related Articles

• India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan (18-Sep-2016)
  
  
• India, Pakistan celebrate independence day with vitriolic accusations about Kashmir (15-Aug-2016)
  

****
**** World Bank declines to mediate Pakistan-India water dispute
****

As we recently reported,
India is
threatening to divert water currently flowing from India to Pakistan
back to India's farmers, in violation of the Indus Water Treaty,
signed by the two countries in 1960.

The Indus Water Treaty is considered a model, because it was mediated
by the World Bank and it has survived despite several wars
between the two countries. In September, India and Pakistan
separately asked the World Bank to mediate the current dispute.
The World Bank agreed at that time, but has now "suspended" its
mediation efforts until at least February, with the following
statement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We are announcing this pause to protect the treaty
> and to help India and Pakistan consider alternative approaches to
> resolve conflicting interests under it and its application to two
> hydroelectric power plants. This is an opportunity for the two
> countries to begin to resolve the issue in an amicable manner and
> in line with the spirit of the treaty rather than pursuing
> concurrent processes that could make the treaty unworkable. I hope
> the two countries will come to an agreement by the end of
> January."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

It's really not surprising that the World Bank is trying hard to wash
its hands of this matter. One has to laugh at the suggestion that
India and Pakistan will "resolve the issue in an amicable manner."
This is just one more issue leading India and Pakistan to war.
The Nation (Pakistan) and First Post

Related Articles

• India's Narendra Modi threatens to divert water from Pakistan to India's farmers (03-Dec-2016)
  

****
**** India celebrates its 1971 victory over Pakistan
****

India on Friday is celebrating its victory over Pakistan in the
India-Pakistan War of 1971, and Pakistan's surrender on December 16,
1971, creating the country of Bangladesh.

The United Nations partitioned the Indian sub-continent following
World War II into separate countries for Hindus and Muslims, India and
Pakistan, respectively. What we now call Bangladesh was the eastern
region of Pakistan. However, East Pakistan's mostly dark-skinned
Bengal population (language: Bengali) was in constant friction with
West Pakistan's more multiethnic population (language: Urdu). East
and West Pakistan never really got along, and the fact that East
Pakistan was more populous than West Pakistan meant that in Pakistan's
democracy, the Bengalis would dominate Pakistan's parliament and
government.

In 1971, Pakistan's army attempted to bring East Pakistan's Bengalis
under control, triggering a war. Pakistan was supported by
Urdu-speaking Biharis from India, while India supported the
Bengalis, and won the war.

Today, with India gloating over the 1971 victory, that war is just one
more issue driving India and Pakistan to a new war today. International Business Times and First Post and Dawn (Pakistan, 10-Dec-2012) and Kashmir Watch (Pakistan)

Related Articles

• Bangladesh tries to recover from Dhaka terror attack, the worst in 40 years (03-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Bangladesh in shock after university professor hacked to death (24-Apr-2016)
  
  
• FBI will aid Bangladesh investigation of border guard officer massacre (04-Mar-2009)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Burhan Wani,
Rajnath Singh, Nafees Zakaria, Indus Water Treaty, World Bank,
West Pakistan, East Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bengalis, Biharis

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Dec-16 World View -- Former UN leader Ban Ki-moon may run for president of South Korea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia and Japan fail to agree on ending World War II
  
• Former UN leader Ban Ki-moon may run for president of South Korea
  

****
**** Russia and Japan fail to agree on ending World War II
****


Shinzo Abe and Vladimir Putin at their meeting on Friday (AP)

Russia and Japan are technically still at war, having never signed a
peace treaty ending their conflict in World War II. Japan has
demanded the return of their Northern Territories, consisting of four
islands that the Soviet Union forces seized at the end of the war.
Russia calls them the Kuril Islands.

So when Russia's president Vladimir Putin came to Tokyo for the last
two days to visit with Japan's president Shinzo Abe, a lot of people
were hoping they'd reach an agreement on the disputed islands, and
that they'd sign an agreement ending World War II.

Unfortunately, no such agreement and no peace treaty were forthcoming.
Press reports seem to imply that Abe had hoped to develop a personal
relationship with Putin and perhaps charm him into reaching an
agreement on the islands. As it turned out, even that goal might not
have been reached, as the two leaders met only briefly. Afterwards,
Putin said, "It would be naive to think we can solve this problem in
an hour, but there is no doubt that we need to look for a solution."
Abe said, "We need to work toward a breakthrough so that we don’t
disappoint the next generation."

Instead, they signed economic deals whose net effect will be Japanese
investments in projects in Russia. Russia and Japan will each put
$500 million into a new fund that will make investments in Russia's
energy, urban planning and medical services. There were reports of
agreements on joint Russian-Japanese economic activities on the
islands, including fisheries, tourism, culture and medicine, but no
talk of sovereignty.

Still, while Russian analysts are saying that Russia got the better of
Japan in the summit, they hope that the joint economic activities will
lead to an eventual peace treaty.

Russia achieved something else significant. Japan has supported the
US-led economic sanctions on Russia for invading and annexing
Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, and Friday's economic agreements seem to

One might well ask oneself why Japan seems so eager to suck up to
Russia without seeming to get much in return. China has been
increasingly hostile to Japan, while Russia and China appear to be
getting along, even militarily, so perhaps Abe felt that a friendship
with Russia would protect Japan from China in the future.

Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, the US, Japan, India, Iran and Russia will be
allied again China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. Japan Times and Russia Today and Tass (Moscow)

Related Articles

• Japan and Russia may settle post-World War II Kuril Islands dispute (03-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Japan's election opens the way to repeal 'pacifism' constitution clause (12-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Japanese warships visit Vietnam, as China moves warplanes into South China Sea (14-Apr-2016)
  

****
**** Former UN leader Ban Ki-moon may run for president of South Korea
****

South Korea has been embroiled for months in an explosive corruption
scandal that has led the parliament to vote to impeach president Park
Geun-hye, and has had massive anti-Park protests every week. Park's
fate will depend on a ruling by the Constitutional Court, which is
expected early next year.

It's expected that there will be large crowds of protesters in Seoul
on Saturday, calling for Park to resign from office without waiting
for the Constitutional Court. It's feared that they'll clash with
another large group of protesters, this group supporting Park.

Ban Ki-moon is stepping down after being United Nations
Secretary-General for ten years, and was asked whether he will run for
president of South Korea:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I'll go back to (South) Korea, then I'll try to meet
> as many people as possible, which may include political leaders,
> leaders of civil society and my friends, and I will really
> consider seriously how best and what I should and could do for my
> country.
>
> I can understand and share the anxiety of people about the future
> of their country. And this is one of the biggest challenges the
> Korean people are encountering.
>
> I also understand the aspiration of people for a new type of
> inclusive leadership that can help them overcome the challenges
> ahead."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

He sounds to me like a politician running for president. AP and Special Broadcasting Service (Australia) and JoongAng Ilbo (Seoul)

Related Articles

• S. Korea's President Park basks in the afterglow of successful visit to China (14-Sep-2015)
  
  
• China's fury grows over South Korea's plan to deploy THAAD anti-missile system (10-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Japan's Shinzo Abe 'insults' Korea in plans for commemorating end of WW II (10-Aug-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Japan, Vladimir Putin, Shinzo Abe,
Northern Territories, Kuril Islands, China,
South Korea, Park Geun-hye, Ban Ki-moon

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Dec-16 World View -- Syria and Russia see 'the light at the end of the tunnel' after Aleppo victory

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's Bashar al-Assad calls Aleppo's 'liberation' a historic event
  
• Syria and Russia suffer a big military setback in Palmyra
  
• Syria's civil war shows similarities to America's Vietnam war
  

****
**** Syria's Bashar al-Assad calls Aleppo's 'liberation' a historic event
****


Russia holds a concert on 5-May to celebrate the recapture of Palmyra from ISIS. Note that Vladimir Putin is on the wide-screen tv on the left side of the stage (AFP)

A year ago, al-Assad himself said that his army was close to being
defeated. Since then, three more armies -- from Russia, Iran and
Lebanon's Hezbollah -- have rushed to his aid, and al-Assad is
claiming a "history in the making" victory:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"[The liberation of Aleppo was] history in the making
> and worthy of more than the word congratulations.
>
> History is being written in these moments. Every Syrian citizen is
> taking part in the writing. It started not today, but years ago
> when the crisis and the war on Syria began."
>
> I think that after the liberation of Aleppo we’ll talk about the
> situation as ... before the liberation of Aleppo and after the
> liberation of Aleppo."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

An analyst, Alexander Khrolenko, quoted by Russian state media
agrees. He says that the city's liberation has had a ripple
effect across the country. The victory has weakened radical groups
located in the province of Idlib:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Until recently, the militants controlled key oil
> fields and communications channels with Turkey in the Euphrates
> valley. Aleppo's liberation has undermined the economic base of
> terrorist groups and the supply routes to Raqqa, the capital of
> Daesh's caliphate. Now the Syrian Arab Army could focus on two
> regions, Idlib and Raqqa."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In the title of this article I referred to "the light at the end of
the tunnel," because that phrase was used by Presidents Lyndon Johnson
and Richard Nixon in making claims about victory in the Vietnam War
that sound very similar to those of al-Assad and Khrolenko. Al Masdar News (Damascus) and International Business Times and Sputnik News (Moscow)

Related Articles

• UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas (07-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Syria's al-Assad goes for the kill, turning Aleppo and civilians to bloody rubble (24-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Syria and Russia continue 'Grozny Model,' killing women and children in Aleppo refugee camp (06-May-2016)
  

****
**** Syria and Russia suffer a big military setback in Palmyra
****

If it takes four armies to capture one city, Aleppo, in a period of
many months, it's delusional to believe that the rest of the country
is going to fall quickly.

Al-Assad and Russia's president Vladimir Putin received a taste of
what they're in for this week when the so-called Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) recaptured the city of Palmyra from Syrian and
Russian forces last weekend. Not only that, but ISIS entered the big
Russian-Syrian T-4 air base outside the town, carrying off substantial
quantities of Russian armaments including assault rifles,
ground-to-ground missiles, anti-tank missiles, and anti-air rockets.

Russia's troops, backed by massive airstrikes, had captured Palmyra in
March of this year. Putin had declared the recapture a major victory
in the war and a major turning point (which is what he's saying now
about Aleppo).

Putin even held a triumphal, widely televised concert in Palmyra's
Roman ruins on May 5, with the orchestra conducted by the
internationally distinguished maestro Valery Gergiev. So ISIS's
success in Palmyra is a major fiasco for Russia and a major
humiliation.

According to reports, the way it happened is that Palmyra was
originally recaptured from ISIS by Russia's special forces (Spetsnaz).
Afterwards, the special forces were withdrawn from Palmyra and sent to
Aleppo, where they are involved in the war there. According to Igor
Konashenkov of the Russian defence ministry, ISIS immediately sent
about 5,000 jihadists from Raqqa to Palmyra to achieve its victory.

Undoubtedly, once Aleppo is captured, Syria and Russia will turn back
to Palmyra and recapture it again from ISIS. But will that leave
Aleppo vulnerable? And if it took four armies to capture Aleppo,
while losing Palmyra, how can they hope to recapture the entire
regions of Syria that are under control of the Free Syrian army,
al-Nusra, and ISIS, and keep captured areas under control?

When American forces scored victories in the Vietnam war, presidents
Johnson and Nixon talked about the "light at the end of tunnel," but
the North Vietnamese forces did not stop fighting, which is what
al-Assad and Putin expect ISIS to do after the capture of Aleppo.
Guardian (London) and Debka

Related Articles

• Loss of Palmyra in Syria highlights setbacks for ISIS (27-Mar-2016)
  

****
**** Syria's civil war shows similarities to America's Vietnam war
****

In 1953, French forces under the command of Gen. Henri Navarre were
fighting Ho Chi Minh's communist forces in Vietnam. Navarre said,
"Now we can see [success in Vietnam] clearly, like light at the end of
a tunnel." The French forces were decisively defeated at Dien Bien
Phu in May 1954.

In June 1966 President Lyndon Johnson said "I urge you to remember
that Americans often grow impatient when they cannot see light at the
end of the tunnel - when policies do not overnight usher in a new
order. But politics is not magic. And when some of our fellow citizens
despair of the tedium and time necessary to bring change - as, for
example, in Vietnam today - they are forgetting our own history."

The phrase "light at the end of the tunnel" was repeated frequently in
the 1960s in reference to the Vietnam war, both by government
officials and by antiwar activists mocking government officials. The
Tet Offensive in 1968 turned public opinion negative towards the war,
though it did not end until several years later.

This week, Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin are talking about a
"history in the making" victory. It's not exactly the same
phrase as "light at the end of the tunnel," but it has the
same flavor.

Let's make three comparisons between America in the 1960s and
Syria today:

• America was in a generational Awakening era. America's
  previous generational crisis war was World War II, which had ended
  explosively with the firebombing of Dresden and the nuking of Japan.
  These acts were so shocking that they ended the war shortly
  after.
  
  
• America tried to repeat its WW II by bombing strategic targets in
  North Vietnam, but with little success. The rules of war are
  different in generational Awakening eras than they are in Crisis eras.
  Survivors with memories of the last crisis war are not so easily
  shocked.
  
  
• In fact, America was hampered by its own lack of will to fight,
  something that almost all historians agree with today. Whereas
  America could use a nuclear weapon to end WW II, domestic and
  international political pressure forced America to use bombs carefully
  and sparingly, to prevent civilian casualties, and to take various
  humanitarian breaks, especially at Christmas.

Now let's look at what's happening in Syria today:

• Syria is in a generational Awakening era. Syria's previous
  generational crisis war was the Syrian civil war that climaxed in
  February 1982 with the destruction, by Bashar's father Hafez al-Assad,
  of the town of Hama. There had been a massive uprising of the 400,000
  mostly Sunni citizens of Hama against Syria's president Hafez
  al-Assad. He turned the town to rubble and killing or displacing
  hundreds of thousands. Hama stands as a defining moment in the Middle
  East. It is regarded as perhaps the single deadliest act by any Arab
  government against its own people in the modern Middle East. It was a
  shocking act that ended the war.
  
  
• Al-Assad is trying to repeat his father's 1982 success by
  repeating in Aleppo the same acts that his father committed in Hama.
  But the rules of war are different in generational Awakening eras than
  they are in Crisis eras. Nobody is shocked by what al-Assad is doing,
  only sickened and disgusted.
  
  
• In fact, Syria and Russia are hampered by enormous international
  pressure to protect civilians and provide humanitarian aid. Just as
  America could have won the Vietnam war by dropping a nuclear bomb on
  Hanoi, al-Assad and Putin could probably win the war in Syria by
  dropping nuclear weapons on Aleppo, Idlib and Raqqa, but they're being
  held back by international pressure to prevent civilian casualties and
  to provide humanitarian aid.

Presidents John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon were all
delusional about the war in Vietnam. Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir
Putin are even more delusional about the war in Syria. The Syrian
civil war will be an even worse disaster than the Vietnam war.
History.com and Global Security

Related Articles

• Russia warns that Syria war could become a 'proxy war' (01-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Generational History of Vietnam (18-May-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo, Palmyra,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Alexander Khrolenko, Igor Konashenkov,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Vietnam, Gen. Henri Navarre, Ho Chi Minh, Dien Bien Phu, Tet Offensive,
Hama, Idlib, Raqqa

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Dec-16 World View -- Chinese bombers circling Taiwan raise talk of war during Trump's first term

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China says it will back down over US military drone seizure in South China Sea
  
• Chinese bombers circling Taiwan raise talk of war during Trump's first term
  

****
**** China says it will back down over US military drone seizure in South China Sea
****


A drone similar to the one that was seized

China's Defense Ministry said on Saturday that it will return to the
United States an American military drone it seized in international
waters in the South China Sea, near the Philippines. However, China
has not yet returned the drone, and says only that it will return the
drone "in an appropriate manner" at an unnamed time.

The Pentagon says that on Thursday, a Chinese naval ship approached
the USNS Bowditch, an oceanographic survey vessel with a mostly
civilian crew, which was trying to retrieve an American military drone
that had been collecting unclassified data for oceanic research. A
Chinese warship, a "submarine rescue vessel," that had been following
the Bowditch, send out a small boat and outran the Bowditch to capture
the drone.

According to the US Defense Department, China intentionally captured a
"sovereign immune vessel," which is an act of war. The Chinese rushed
to provide a laughable excuse, saying that the drone was captured "in
order to prevent the device from causing harm to the safety of
navigation and personnel of passing vessels."

The drone was captured in waters near the Philippines, far from China.
China has declared its intention to annex the entire South China Sea
as its sovereign territory, even though its claims have been shown to
be a hoax, and even though a judgment by the United Nations Permanent
Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague has made it clear that China
was violating international law.

Chinese state media made it clear that the seizure was intentional.
It quotes Li Jie, a Beijing-based naval expert:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"This is not the first time that we seized a US
> underwater drone in the South China Sea, but the one we seized on
> Thursday is new and more advanced than before and might carry
> valuable information just gathered in the South China
> Sea."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

According to one theory, China seized the US military drone to send a
threatening message to US president-elect Donald Trump, after he
accepted a phone call from Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen on December
2. Trump has also indicated that he is also reviewing America's
support for the "one China" policy, which says that Taiwan is a
province of China.

China was forced to back down and promise to return the drone because
not doing so could force a military response by the US. However,
until China fulfills its promise and actually returns the drone, a
military response remains a possibility. Washington Post and Xinhua and Global Times (Beijing) and Daily Beast

Related Articles

• China says its South China Sea military buildup is a boon to the world (09-Dec-2016)
  
  
• China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims revealed as hoax (22-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** Chinese bombers circling Taiwan raise talk of war during Trump's first term
****

Anxieties about war have been raised in Taiwan after Chinese bombers
twice circled around Taiwan's periphery, though without entering the
countries air defense identification zone (ADIZ).

Some people have speculated that this is one more act from Beijing,
like the seizure of the US drone, to send a message in response to
Donald Trump's phone call with Taiwan's president. However, that
would seem an unlikely explanation, since the two actions by the
Chinese bomber occurred on November 25 and December 10, with the first
action occurring prior to the phone call.

However, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense on Sunday appealed for
calm, as further concerns were raised this weekend when China's air
published a photo on social media showing a bomber flying above clouds
with two mountain peaks in the distance, apparently depicting the
November 25 flight. Chinese military commentators said that the peaks
are of a mountain in Taiwan.

China's state media quoted a Chinese military analyst saying that
military action could occur in Donald Trump's first term:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Military conflicts would occur between the Chinese
> mainland and Taiwan by 2020. It is quite possible that the
> mainland will take the island in one stroke."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, another Chinese analyst is quoted as saying that China's
leadership might not favor reunification by force, which would hurt
both sides' interests. China Post (Taipei) and Global Times (Beijing)

Related Articles

• No war erupted from Trump's ten minute phone call with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen (05-Dec-2016)
  
  
• New Taiwan poll shows overwhelming support for independence from China (02-Jun-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, USNS Bowditch,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Philippines, Li Jie, Donald Trump, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Dec-16 World View -- Terror in Berlin and Ankara as Russia's ambassador to Turkey shot dead

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's ambassador to Turkey shot dead in Ankara
  
• Large truck kills 12 driving into a crowded Berlin market
  

****
**** Russia's ambassador to Turkey shot dead in Ankara
****


Andrey Karlov giving his speech in an Ankara art museum, just before being shot. In the left rear is the assassin, Mevlüt Mert Altintas. (Hurriyet)

Russia's ambassador to Turkey, Andrey Karlov, was shot dead
in Turkey's capital city Ankara on Monday around 7:30 pm,
as he was giving a speech during the opening of an art exhibition.
Karlov has been a diplomat for 40 years, and has been
ambassador to Turkey since 2013.

The killer was Mevlüt Mert Altintas, said to be a 22 year old off-duty
policeman who had joined Turkey's police force two years ago.

After shooting Karlov, Altintas waved his gun around and should
"Allahu Akbar" (Allah is great), and then in Turkish, "Don't forget
about Aleppo. Don't forget about Syria. As long as they aren't safe,
you won't be safe either."

Further information about Altintas has not been released, but it's
believed that he's not from groups that have conducted terror attacks
in Turkey in the last year, such as Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) or
the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). There have
been widespread protests in Turkey against Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad for his bloody slaughter of civilians in Aleppo, and it's
believed that he's a particularly demented anti-Assad protester who
believes that he can attain a political objective by killing an
ambassador.

In November of last year, Turkey's F-16s were involved in the shooting down of a Russian warplane
that
had allegedly crossed the border from Syria into Turkey. Relations
between the two leaders, Russia's president Vladimir Putin and
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, extremely vitriolic, and they
imposed economic sanctions on each other, harming both their
economies.

The relations began to improve, even to signing an agreement in
October to jointly build a natural gas pipeline.
However, this was thought to be an agreement out of
pragmatism, rather than a real warming of relations, as the two
countries are still bitterly divided over the Syrian civil war.

Some observers have speculated that Altintas's political goal in
killing the Russian ambassador was to renew the hostility between
Putin and Erdogan. However, Putin issued a statement saying that he
does not blame Erdogan or Turkey for this terrorist act.

Putin announced that Russia is sending a team of investigators to
Ankara to investigate the shooting. Unless the investigation reveals
gross negligence by Turkish officials in not preventing the shooting,
it's expected that pragmatism will continue in the relationship
between Turkey and Russia. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Bloomberg

Related Articles

• Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Russia and Turkey increasingly on a war footing (04-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia (08-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's Erdogan and Russia's Putin sign TurkStream gas pipeline deal (11-Oct-2016)
  

****
**** Large truck kills 12 driving into a crowded Berlin market
****


Aftermath of truck massacre in Berlin (DW)

At least 12 people were killed and dozens injured after a large truck
rammed into crowds at a market in Berlin, Germany. The driver has
been arrested, and a passenger in the truck died in the crash,
although he may have been killed. Authorities are reluctant at this
time to say whether it was an "accident" or an "attack," although
signs point to it being an attack.

The truck had Polish license plates and was carrying steel beams from
Poland to a site in Italy. The dead passenger in the truck has been
identified as a Polish national. The driver is said to be an asylum
seeker from Pakistan or Afghanistan, who had arrived in Germany in
February.

No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, ISIS has
previously called on its followers to carry out "lone wolf" terror
strikes in Europe, and driving a truck into a crowd is one type of
attack that ISIS has suggested. In July, an attack of that type
occurred in Nice, France, when a delivery truck driver drove his truck
into a crowd. That attack occurred on Bastille Day, July 14.
Deutsche Welle

Related Articles

• Nice France terror attack provokes desperate search for solutions (16-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Russia, Andrey Karlov,
Mevlüt Mert Altintas, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Berlin, Germany

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(12-19-2016, 12:54 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > The PLAAF bombers are ones whose designs were Soviet/Russian
> licensed. They are modernized versions of the Tu-16 Badger. While
> lacking the range and capacity of Tu-95s, they are nonetheless a
> potent threat. Armed with the Chinese version of Kh-55 (or later)
> cruise missiles, and supported by tankers, they can wreak havoc
> not only in Taiwan but world wide. One dire scenario is for such
> bombers to cruise in a tight pattern over some friendly airspace
> such as Cambodia or Pakistan. From such a safe place (e.g. NATO /
> the US won't shoot them down when they are not in International or
> US / allied air space) they can launch cruise missiles in a
> surprise attack, turning Diego Garcia into glass. Think it can't
> happen? Some idiots said similar things about Billy Mitchell's
> warnings.

Recall that when Osama bin Laden, sitting in a cave in the "friendly"
country of Afghanistan, launched terrorist attacks in the 90's and
00's, the US did not hesitate to attack that country, with missiles
and with war.

I don't think that either Pakistan or Cambodia, friendly though they
are with China, would give permission to China to launch cruise
missiles from their airspace. If they did, there would be no
hesitation to strike back, or even turn some parts of the
China-friendly country to glass. Of course, as you suggest, if it's a
surprise attack then that may be too late.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Dec-16 World View -- Russia, Turkey scramble to mend relations by blaming US for assassination

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Man who shot Russia's ambassador in Turkey was in security forces
  
• Turkey and Russia blame Fethullah Gulen and the US for the assassination
  
• Both Turkey and Russia stand to gain by blaming US for assassination
  

****
**** Man who shot Russia's ambassador in Turkey was in security forces
****


Foreign ministers of Iran, Russia and Turkey meet in Moscow to discuss a Syria peace plan. The U.S. was not invited

Turkey's police have arrested six relatives of Mevlut Mert Altintas,
the 22 year old who shot Andrey Karlov, Russia's ambassador to Turkey,
in Ankara on Monday.

Little information about Altintas has been released. He was born in
western Turkey on the Aegean Sea, and has been working as a policeman
for 2-1/2 years.

He used his police badge on Monday to gain access to the art exhibit
where Karlov would be speaking, and to avoid having to go through a
security X-ray device. He took his place and stood behind Karlov as
part of Karlov's security detail. After Karlov had been speaking for
a few minutes, Altintas pulled a gun from his coat pocket and shot
Karlov dead. Anadolu (Ankara) and Reuters and Hurriyet (Ankara)

Related Articles

• Terror in Berlin and Ankara as Russia's ambassador to Turkey shot dead (20-Dec-2016)
  

****
**** Turkey and Russia blame Fethullah Gulen and the US for the assassination
****

I've always considered it somewhat fanciful that Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan blamed the aborted July 15 coup attempt on a
76-year-old political enemy living in the Pocono Mountains in
Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania, as if Fethullah Gulen had directed the coup
himself from his easy chair.

Erdogan has repeatedly asked the Obama administration to extradite
Gulen back to Turkey, charging him as being the leader of what Turkey
calls the Fetullah Terror Organization (FETO). Last month, Erdogan
said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I was disillusioned, because I would expect this? I
> served both as a prime minister and president in this country and
> whenever the U.S. requested extradition of those kinds of
> terrorists I handed them over. Obama also should have done it and
> handed that man to us."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The Justice Department has said that they would be happen to extradite
Gulen to Turkey, provided that Turkey provides evidence satisfactory
to an American court of law that Gulen was really involved in the
coup. The administration says that it has not received such evidence.

There are other problems with automatically blaming Gulen.

Gulen is a Muslim cleric with a worldwide network of schools and
businesses, run by his followers. For Erdogan, this worldwide network
was for many years a good thing, a sign of a progressive Turkey,
fighting extremism, and providing education and jobs. But relations
between Erdogan and Gulen started to sour in 2012, and were severed
completely in 2013. Since then, this huge international network has
turned in Erdogan's eyes from a good thing to a bad thing, promoting
terrorism instead of fighting extremism.

This sudden change in Erdogan's view of Gulen has caused confusion,
and raised suspicion that the issues are more political than
otherwise. And so there's a great deal of skepticism when Turkey is
not able to provide any credible proof of Gulen's involvement in the
July 15 coup.

However, the continued presence of Gulen in the United States provides
a convenient target for Erdogan's blame and mockery. Whenever there's
a domestic problem, Erdogan can just blame it on Gulen and the United
States. Both Erdogan and Russia are increasingly blaming Monday's
assassination of Russia's ambassador on the US.

Ilnur Cevik is an advisor to Erdogan. He says that the US and Germany
are responsible for lots of things:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Growing relations and intensive cooperation in all
> areas between Turkey and Russia has created anger in the West,
> especially in the United States and Germany. The latest example
> has been the joint efforts of the two countries to save the
> civilian people of Aleppo. It was inevitable that the West would
> try to sabotage these relations. It is sad that they used a
> policeman affiliated to Fethullah Gulen's terrorist organization
> to assassinate the ambassador. This organization was also behind
> the downing of the Russian fighter that hurt our
> relations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

So, the US and Germany are responsible not only for the assassination
of the Russia's ambassador, but also for the July 15 coup and, even
more incredibly, for Turkey's shootdown of the Russian warplane in
November of last year!! But it's very convenient for both countries,
rather than have to deal with the consequences to their own
relationships.

This is laughable, and it reminds me of a completely different story
in the news these days. The demented loony-left-wing socialist
president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros, has been so thoroughly
destroying his country's economy that the inflation rate is 67% per
month, and is continuing to accelerate. But he gets away with it by
blaming it all on a foreign conspiracy, led by the United States. It
seems that there is no leader's policy so loony or so destructive that
he can't get away with it by blaming the United States. World Bulletin (Turkey) and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Hurriyet (Ankara)

Related Articles

• US VP Biden snubbed by Turkey's angry president Erdogan (25-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers, moving Turkey away from the West (22-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Venezuela's currency becomes worthless, as Zimbabwe introduces new currency (08-Dec-2016)
  

****
**** Both Turkey and Russia stand to gain by blaming US for assassination
****

The Turkish people have for years had to look on as Syria, Russia,
Iran and Hezbollah combine to massacre, bomb and slaughter hundreds of
thousands of civilians, including many women and children, who are
ethnic Turkmens and other ethnic groups close to Turkey, and to drive
millions more from their homes.

So why would Turkey be willing to bend over backwards to mend
relations with Russia?

There's no doubt that the past year has been hell for Turkey. There
have been six or eight major terrorist attacks in cities across the
country, perpetrated by the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
or the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). There
was the July 15 aborted coup attempt. The country's resources have
been strained by some three million refugees pouring into the country
to escape the war in Syria. There was the chaotic break with Russia
after a Russian warplane was shot down.

After the shootdown of Russia's warplane last year, Russia imposed
harsh sanctions on Turkey that were devastating to Turkey's economy.
Politically, Erdogan became increasingly isolated, having had very
public splits with Syria, Russia, Israel and Egypt. So, Erdogan began
healing some of those splits -- with Russia and Israel, though not
with Egypt. And Erdogan became resigned that Bashar al-Assad is here
to stay.

Russia has a completely different set of motivations. Russia is on
the verge of scoring a major political victory.

On Monday, leaders of Russia, Iran and Turkey met for a summit in
Moscow to discuss a peace agreement for Syria. Turkey has dropped its
demand that Bashar al-Assad step down. The United States has become
so irrelevant to the Mideast that it was not invited, and besides,
both Turkey and Russia are blaming the United States for the
assassination and other problems.

For Russia, this is an opportunity to show the world that Russia is
back, it's in charge of the Mideast, while the US has been pushed out.
This is the kind of political victory that Vladimir Putin is working
for.

So this is a critical time for both Turkey and Russia. The
assassination of Russia's ambassador in Ankara has the potentially to
really explode the relationship between the two countries. How was an
off-duty security guard so easily able to get into the exhibition?
Why was the ambassador so poorly protected? After the shooting, why
the did the police shoot Altintas dead, rather than just wounding him,
which would have allowed Russian investigators to question him? Who
else was involved in the assassination plot?

By rushing to blame the United States, the two countries do not have
to deal with a lot of very difficult questions. In particular, Russia
can continue with its plan to declare itself the world leader in the
Mideast.

Generational Dynamics predicts that this friendship between Turkey and
Russia won't last, and that Russia and Turkey will be on opposite
sides of the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war. Russians
and Turks have hated each other for centuries, and have fought many
bloody wars, and it won't be long before they're fighting one more.
Telegraph (London) and Tass (Moscow) and Sputnik News (Moscow)

Related Articles

• Egypt turns to Iran for oil after Saudi relationship deteriorates over Syria (19-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Russia and Turkey increasingly on a war footing (04-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia (08-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Russia, Andrey Karlov,
Mevlüt Mert Altintas, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Fethullah Gulen, Fetullah Terror Organization, FETO,
Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-Dec-16 World View -- Italy announces bank bailout that will 'bail in' ordinary depositors

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Italy announces bank bailout that will 'bail in' ordinary depositors
  
• European officials refuse to unblock the next bailout loan to Greece
  

****
**** Italy announces bank bailout that will 'bail in' ordinary depositors
****


The Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), established 1472, the world's oldest operating bank

Italy's parliament on Wednesday overwhelmingly approved a &euro;20
billion bailout package for the country's banks, particularly the
famous Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), founded in 1472, and the
world's oldest operating bank, which is close to collapse because it
has $55.2 billion of bad loans on its book.

MPS has been trying various desperate measures to bail itself out by
borrowing money from international investors, including the Qatar
Investment Authority, but those attempts have failed. MPS said on
Wednesday that it would run out of money within four months. Last
week, MPS said that it had enough money to last 11 months.

It's not clear how much of the &euro;20 billion bailout that MPS
will get, since the money is intended as a bailout fund for all
of Italy's banks. Italy's banks hold a total of about $383 billion
in non-performing loans, which is about one-third of the total
for the entire eurozone. So the bailout amount is nowhere near
enough to save Italy's banking system.

The new law authorizing a bailout would seem like a good idea,
but it actually has the potential to be politically disastrous.
This has to do with new rules that the European Central Bank (ECB)
introduced in the last year, saying that if a country's government
bailed out a bank, then the investors (e.g., holders of the
banks stocks and bonds) would have to be "bailed in" -- meaning
that they would "take a haircut" and lose a percentage of their
investments.

Usually, anyone who invested in the stocks and bonds issued by a bank
would have to be considered a "sophisticated investor." But Italy's
banks are unique in that thousands of ordinary people, including many
elderly savers, who wanted to deposit their money in savings accounts
instead were sold bank bonds by the bank's staff. The result is that
a "bail-in" of supposedly sophisticated investors will actually cause
tens of thousands of people to lose their life savings.

It's thought the bailout of MPS will occur next week, before the end
of 2016, and then we should have an idea of how many depositors are
going to lost money. Some Italian politicians are claiming that
they'll find a way to protect ordinary people's savings accounts, but
whether that's even possible under ECB rules remains to be seen.
Deutsche Welle and Guardian (London) and International Business Times

Related Articles

• Italy's bank crisis seems likely to cost thousands of people their savings (13-Dec-2016)
  
  
• After Brexit and Trump, Italy's Five-Star-Movement may be the next surprise (18-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Italy bank crisis more dangerous to EU than Brexit (05-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** European officials refuse to unblock the next bailout loan to Greece
****

On December 5, Greece's creditors reached an agreement to a new
bailout loan. However, once the agreement was reached, Greece's prime
minister Alexis Tsipras suddenly announced new social spending -- a
one-time pre-Christmas bonus to poor pensioners, and a reduction in
taxes for Greece's Aegean Sea islands whose tourist industry had
suffered because of the refugee crisis.

This caused European officials to block the new bailout loan, and on
Wednesday the Euro Working Group (EWB) announced that it had not been
able to reach agreement to unblock the bailout. The countries that
wanted to block further aid included Austria, the Netherlands,
Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland and Germany. Greek Reporter and Kathimerini

Related Articles

• Greece financial crisis threatened after Tsipras announces new spending program (15-Dec-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena, MPS,
Qatar Investment Authority, European Central Bank, ECB,
Greece, Alexis Tsipris, Euro Working Group, EWB

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Dec-16 World View -- Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both call for nuclear weapons increase

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both call for nuclear weapons increase
  
• Germany criticized for too few CCTV cameras, and Britain for too many
  

****
**** Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both call for nuclear weapons increase
****


Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin pointing, earlier this year

President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday tweeted that the United
States should increase its nuclear missile arsenal:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The United States must greatly strengthen and expand
> its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its
> senses regarding nukes."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Several hours earlier, Russia's present Vladimir Putin had made a
similar call for Russia:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We need to strengthen the military potential of
> strategic nuclear forces, especially with missile complexes that
> can reliably penetrate any existing and prospective missile
> defense systems.
>
> We must carefully monitor any changes in the balance of power and
> in the political-military situation in the world, especially along
> Russian borders, and quickly adapt plans for neutralizing threats
> to our country."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

US State Dept. John Kirby responded to a question of Trump's tweet:

> [indent]<QUOTE>QUESTION: "During the campaign there was a lot of
> discussion, especially from the Clinton side, about how Mr. Trump
> didn’t have the temperament to handle the nuclear weapons arsenal,
> that he was unpredictable and impulsive. Is this – does this kind
> of tweet, especially coming a few hours after Mr. Putin said
> something similar without any kind of policy statement or thinking
> to back it up – does that reinforce concerns that he might not be
> a steady hand?"
>
> KIRBY: "Not for me to say, Barbara. I can’t speak for what – the
> president-elect’s nuclear views or his policy going
> forward. That’s for his and his team to speak to. What I can speak
> to is the approach that this Administration has taken to trying to
> get us on a path to a world without nuclear weapons."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This is a particularly laughable and moronic statement.

As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that
the US and Russia will be allies in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war. Russia will be allied with India and the
United States, while China will be allied with Pakistan and China and
the Sunni states. Iran will also be allied with India and Russia, as
Shia Muslims and Hindus have been allied against Sunni Muslims at
least as far back as the Battle of Karbala.

As I've been describing for many years, China is engaging in a massive
military buildup, developing multiple new nuclear weapons systems with
the purpose of destroying American cities, military bases, and
aircraft carriers. According to a Pentagon report issued in May of
this year, China has been on a weapons binge, with quality improving
even faster than quantity. Although the US military was confident in
the past that it could successfully defend against a Chinese attack,
the report suggested that China's military is at a tipping point,
where it could overwhelm American defense forces.

Russia's officials must also be getting alarmed by the massive buildup
in weapons by its historic enemy, China. Thus, Thursday's statements
by Putin and Trump should be viewed not as presenting a danger of
nuclear war between Russia and the US, but as a sign that the both the
US and Russia are moving to protect themselves from the inevitable
preemptive nuclear missile attack by China. AFP and AP and State Dept. and NBC News

Related Articles

• China says Pentagon report on China military 'severely damages' relations (16-May-2016)
  
  
• Arab views of Iran nuclear deal (15-Jul-2015)
  

****
**** Germany criticized for too few CCTV cameras, and Britain for too many
****

German police have announced that the perpetrator of Monday's
truck-ramming attack on a market in Berlin was Anis Amri, 24, a
Tunisian asylum seeker who arrived in Germany last year. Amri has a
criminal record in Italy and Tunisia, spent four years in an Italian
prison. It took many hours for the police to figure out what
happened, allowing Amri to be able to escape. There is now a major
manhunt across Europe for Amri.

Many analysts are astonished that Berlin police have been unable to
produce any CCTV (closed-circuit TV) footage that recorded the event,
and that the police have to depend on asking the public for any
available mobile phone footage.

Privacy laws are very strict in Germany, and Germans are particularly
sensitive of state surveillance by any means, because of their
collective memories of state surveillance by the Stasi secret policy
in Communist East Germany and by the Gestapo in the Nazi era. So
Berlin in particular is almost barren of CCTV cameras. According to
the Berlin police union chief, "We would know a lot more about the
perpetrator by now if we had been allowed to install video cameras."
If cameras had captured the event, then Amri might have been
identified much more quickly, before he had a chance to escape.

There's a particular irony to this situation, in that the EU just gave
Britain one more reason for Brexit. The European Court of Justice
(ECJ) on Wednesday struck down a UK's surveillance laws on the grounds
that they violate the EU's privacy laws. The ruling did not
specifically apply to CCTV, but it said that e-mail and internet
records from the general public had to be destroyed within a year.

Undoubtedly, all of these privacy laws will be debated again, to
balance privacy against public safety. However, it's worth noting
that technology is improving rapidly to the point where it will be
possible for the police to identify each person in CCTV footage, and use that
information to track every person's movements on a daily basis.
Daily Mail (London) and Telegraph (London) and International Business Times

Related Articles

• Terror in Berlin and Ankara as Russia's ambassador to Turkey shot dead (20-Dec-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Donald Trump, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
China, CCTV, Germany, Berlin, Anis Amri,
Britain, European Court of Justice, ECJ

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

(12-22-2016, 09:47 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Russia's officials must also be getting alarmed by the massive buildup
in weapons by its historic enemy, China.  Thus, Thursday's statements
by Putin and Trump should be viewed not as presenting a danger of
nuclear war between Russia and the US, but as a sign that the both the
US and Russia are moving to protect themselves from the inevitable
preemptive nuclear missile attack by China.  

The Problem with the interpretation above is firstly that Russia has been primarily threatening the US for the past several years. Secondly while the quality of the Chinese nuclear arsenal is improving as it is being modernized, total inventory of Chinese missiles has largely remained the same. 300 Missiles can't take on two 5000 missile arsenals at the same time and hope to win.

[John J. Xenakis]

(12-23-2016, 11:13 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > The Problem with the interpretation above is firstly that Russia
> has been primarily threatening the US for the past several
> years. Secondly while the quality of the Chinese nuclear arsenal
> is improving as it is being modernized, total inventory of Chinese
> missiles has largely remained the same. 300 Missiles can't take on
> two 5000 missile arsenals at the same time and hope to win.
>

When did Russia threaten the US? China repeatedly threatens war with
the US, over Taiwan and over the South China Sea, but not Russia.

Non-crisis wars are fought on rational considerations, such as
by counting numbers of missiles.

Crisis wars are like sex. They're driven by raw emotion, DNA and
hormones, and are often completely inappropriate and irrational.

From a purely rational point of view, the South never had a chance of
beating the North, and Japan never had a chance of defeating America.
And yet those wars went forward. Go figure.

[John J. Xenakis]

(12-23-2016, 02:43 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > In the SCO schema, which John stubbornly refuses to acknowledge as
> an alternate outcome to his pet crystal ball, Russia provides the
> long range nuclear fire power whereas the PRC provide short to
> medium range nuclear firepower. Russia provides the global heavy
> bomber force although the updated Tu-16s of the PLAAF will over
> time add to this. Naturally the PRC provides the millions of
> cannon fodder troops. In the SCO Axis model, the Allies would face
> a nearly unwinnable war. The Fourth Reich (which I believe the SCO
> to be) may end up conquering the Earth (and beyond)

It's totally incomprehensible how you keep pushing this bizarre SCO
theory. No country is going to go to war with the US because it
belongs to a political group like the SCO. Why on earth would
Kazakhstan go to war with the US? For that matter, why would Russia?

The Chinese people have this "China Dream," where they completely
replace the US as the principal superpower in the world, with Chinese
navies controlling the seas from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian ocean
to Africa and the Mideast. It's a dream that's completely emotional,
erotic, nationalistic, self-delusional, irrational, unrealistic,
inappropriate, and disastrous.

If one assumes, as you do, that every country in Asia is going to
declare war on the US, then the US will lose. But that's not what's
going to happen. China will be fighting Japan, Vietnam, India and yes
Russia, all with their own hordes of cannon fodder troops. China
would have lost to Japan in WW II if the US hadn't helped.

Furthermore, China will also be fighting a civil war. Of course, so
will India, Pakistan, and the SCO countries. Civil wars tend to
diffuse focus.

China does not have any way of transporting millions of cannon fodder
troops to the US to fight the US army here. Unlike the US, they have
no experience fighting that kind of war, and don't know how to do it.

What the Chinese do have, or will have, is hundreds or perhaps even
thousands of nuclear missiles targeting American cities, military
bases, and aircraft carriers. After they've launched all those
missiles, and destroyed numerous American cities, bases, and aircraft
carriers, they'll have nothing left to fight the war against us, and
will still have to fight the war against India, Japan, and so forth.
The SCO will be useless.

[John J. Xenakis]

(12-23-2016, 05:51 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > What if you are wrong?

What if the sun explodes? We'll all burn to death. It will be
horrible.