Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Mar-18 World View -- Britain threatens Russia with retaliation over nerve gas poisoning of Skripal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain threatens Russia with retaliation over nerve gas poisoning of Skripal
  
• Russia reacts with massive disinformation campaign
  
• Skripal was attacked with Novichok, a military-grade nerve agent developed by Russia
  

****
**** Britain threatens Russia with retaliation over nerve gas poisoning of Skripal
****


Vladimir Putin smirks when a BBC reporter asks him whether Russia poisoned Sergei Skripal

On Sunday, March 4, a policeman in Salisbury, England, found 66 year
old Sergei Skripal and his 33 year old daughter Yulia unconscious on a
bench. They were both hospitalized, and are still in critical
condition. The policeman who found them has also been hospitalized,
and is in serious condition.

Skripal was a Russian former double agent who had been released
from Russian jail to the West in a prisoner exchange. He had
lived a quiet life in Salisbury, though not under an assumed name.
With all three people -- Skripal, his daughter, and the policeman
-- all hospitalized, it was suspected that Russia had attacked them,
and a full investigation was ordered.

Russia has a history of attacking disloyal former agents on foreign
soil. In 2007, two Russian assassins put polonium into Alexander
Litvinenko’s tea, resulting in a long, painful death.

On Monday, Britain's prime minister Theresa May announced
that the investigation was ongoing, but based on the information
available so far, it was "highly likely" that Skripal had been
poisoned by Russians, using a deadly nerve agent
called Novichok that was developed in Russia.

The following are excerpts from May's speech:

<QUOTE>"But as a nation that believes in justice and the rule
of law, it is essential that we proceed in the right way – led not
by speculation but by the evidence.

That is why we have given the police the space and time to carry
out their investigation properly. ...

That investigation continues and we must allow the police to
continue with their work. ...

It is now clear that Mr Skripal and his daughter were poisoned
with a military-grade nerve agent of a type developed by Russia.

This is part of a group of nerve agents known as ‘Novichok’.

Based on the positive identification of this chemical agent by
world-leading experts at the Defense Science and Technology
Laboratory at Porton Down; our knowledge that Russia has
previously produced this agent and would still be capable of doing
so; Russia’s record of conducting state-sponsored assassinations;
and our assessment that Russia views some defectors as legitimate
targets for assassinations; the Government has concluded that it
is highly likely that Russia was responsible for the act against
Sergei and Yulia Skripal.

Mr Speaker, there are therefore only two plausible explanations
for what happened in Salisbury on the 4 of March.

Either this was a direct act by the Russian State against our
country.

Or the Russian government lost control of this potentially
catastrophically damaging nerve agent and allowed it to get into
the hands of others."<END QUOTE>

It's believed that this concept of "only two plausible explanations"
was a carefully crafted phrase to allow Britain to demand that the
Russians select from these two choices, either of which implies
Russian guilt.

Britain has demanded that the Russian embassy respond by Tuesday
evening, and explain which of the two possibilities it is,
and how Novichok could have been deployed in Salisbury.

May said that when Litvinenko was killed, Britain expelled Russian
diplomats and took other steps.

It's particularly shocking to the British public that the
investigation found traces of the nerve agent Novichok in the pizza
restaurant where Skripal and his daughter had been eating, indicating
that assassins had put the general public in danger.

The British people appear to be furious at the Russians for conducting
chemical warfare on British soil, and it's certain that there will be
retaliation. Measures being discussed include expelling more
diplomats, freezing more assets of Russian oligarchs, and applying
more sanctions. Another recommendation is to ban the station Russia
Today from being broadcast in Britain. Russia Today used to be a
decent news station, but has turned into just a fairly worthless propaganda arm for the Kremlin.

However this unfolds, relations between Britain and Russia is going to
become increasingly hostile. Mirror (London) and Guardian (London) and Reuters

****
**** Russia reacts with massive disinformation campaign
****

At this point we have to provide a brief list of all the lies that
Russian officials have told in recent years.

Russia lied about invading east Ukraine when it had Russian troops in
east Ukraine. Russia lied about invading Crimea, and Putin said
Russia had no intention of annexing Crimea, but then annexed Crimea a
few days later and gave medals to the military officers who had
invaded Crimea. Later, in a televised interview, Putin bragged that
he had ordered the invasion and annexation of Crimea weeks before it
occurred, and then lied about it. Russia lied about shooting down the
MH17 passenger plane with a Russian Buk missile, even though the
Russian commander in Ukraine initially bragged about shooting it down
in a tweet.

For Syria, Russia lied about Syria's president al-Bashar Assad's use
of Sarin gas on his own people, Russia lied about the purpose of its
military intervention into Syria as being to attack the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Even worse, Russia hired hundreds of paid internet trolls to attack
and harass people like me who write about what Russia is actually
doing, and to post thousands of disinformation comments online.

In the case of shooting down the MH17 passenger plane, Russian media
and trolls went into full-on troll mode, making one ridiculous claim
after another: Russian commander Strelkov's tweet had never occurred;
the US had shot down MH17 to embarrass Russia; the airplane was struck
by a meteor; no living people were aboard the plane as it flew on
autopilot from Amsterdam, where it had been pre-loaded with "rotting
corpses."

The point is that everything the Russians say has zero value. It's of
no more use than any pieces of total garbage.

So with all that in mind, we're about to see another massive
disinformation campaign by Russian trolls. There are reports that
this campaign has already begun. Here's what we're hearing already,
led by Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova:

• This is a circus show in the British parliament.
  
  
• Skripal was killed by the British government to embarrass
  Russia.
  
  
• Theresa May's evidence was a "fairy tale"
  
  
• The incident was made up as part of a much bigger NATO plot to
  whip up international anger against Russia.
  
  
• The poisoning could be part of a Western plot to justify a boycott
  of the FIFA World Cup tournament, coming to Russia in three
  months.

The picture at the beginning of this article is of Vladimir Putin was
visiting Russia's National Grain Center, responding to a question from
a BBC reporter about whether Russia was responsible for poisoning
Skripal. He responded with a mocking answer:

<QUOTE>"We're dealing with agriculture here you see, to
create conditions for people's lives. And you talk to me about
some tragedies. First, get to the bottom of it there, and then
we'll discuss this."<END QUOTE>

Putin was able to respond with a smirk because he knows that Russia
will get away with the attack on Skripal. Canadian Broadcasting

****
**** Skripal was attacked with Novichok, a military-grade nerve agent developed by Russia
****

The military-grade nerve agent Novichok has been identified as what was
used to poison Skripal, his daughter, and the policeman who found
them. As far as is known, nobody knows how to make Novichok
except the Russians.

Novichok means "newcomer" in Russian. Novichok agents were developed
in the 1980s as a new weapon in the waning days of the Cold
War. Novichok chemicals were designed to evade equipment carried by
NATO troops. NPR

Related Articles

• Special prosecutor Robert Mueller issues farcical indictment of Russian trolls (19-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Russia uses an army of trolls on social media (15-Aug-2014)
  
  
• Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine (14-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Vladimir Putin brags about how he lied about Russia's invasion of Crimea (10-Mar-2015)
  
  
• Russia's Putin confirms that he'll appoint Medvedev to be prime minister (16-Dec-2011)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Salisbury, Russia, Sergei Skripal,
Alexander Litvinenko, Theresa May, Novichok,
Russia Today, Maria Zakharova

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

The Skripal case is especially notable because Skripal had been part of an agreed exchange. Back in the Soviet days, Russia tended to keep their word, and I don't believe they tried to assassinate people whom they had agreed to trade away.

Either the Russian government is no longer trustworthy as it used to be, or it has lost control of the FSB.

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-13-2018, 01:03 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > The Skripal case is especially notable because Skripal had been
> part of an agreed exchange. Back in the Soviet days, Russia
> tended to keep their word, and I don't believe they tried to
> assassinate people whom they had agreed to trade away.

> Either the Russian government is no longer trustworthy as it used
> to be, or it has lost control of the FSB.

When, exactly, was the Russian government trustworthy?

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Mar-18 World View -- Trump blocks Broadcom acquisition of Qualcomm over national security

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Trump blocks Broadcom acquisition of Qualcomm over national security
  
• Government urges not doing business with China's Huawei and ZTE
  

****
**** Trump blocks Broadcom acquisition of Qualcomm over national security
****


FBI Director Christopher Wray (L) and CIA Director Mike Pompeo (2nd L) testify to a Senate Intelligence Committee on Feb 13, advising Americans not to buy products from Chinese firms Huawei and ZTE (AFP)

The Trump administration has issued a presidential order blocking the
$117 billion proposed takeover of US-based chip maker Qualcomm Inc. by
Singapore-based chip maker Broadcom Ltd. Excerpts of the order
are as follows:

<QUOTE>"There is credible evidence that leads me to believe
that Broadcom Limited, a limited company organized under the laws
of Singapore (Broadcom) ..., through exercising control of
Qualcomm Incorporated (Qualcomm), a Delaware corporation, might
take action that threatens to impair the national security of the
United States. ...

On the basis of the findings set forth in section 1 of this order,
... I hereby order that:

(a) The proposed takeover of Qualcomm by the Purchaser is
prohibited, and any substantially equivalent merger, acquisition,
or takeover, whether effected directly or indirectly, is also
prohibited.

(b) All 15 individuals listed as potential candidates on the Form
of Blue Proxy Card filed by Broadcom and Broadcom Corporation with
the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 20, 2018
(together, the Candidates), are hereby disqualified from standing
for election as directors of Qualcomm. Qualcomm is prohibited
from accepting the nomination of or votes for any of the
Candidates."<END QUOTE>

Broadcom said in a statement it was reviewing the order and that it
"strongly disagrees that its proposed acquisition of Qualcomm raises
any national security concerns."

Supporters of the proposed merger point to the fact that Broadcom
was a US-based company until its headquarters moved to Singapore
in 2016 because of a merger, and that it was in the process of
moving its headquarters back to the U.S., partly to allay national
security concerns associated with this kind of merger.

A reason that administration officials are giving for blocking the
merger is that Broadcom would curtail investment in the aggressive
research and development program that Qualcomm has been pursuing,
particularly in 5G technology, the new technology that will
substantially speed up data transfers to and from smartphones. If
Qualcomm is slowed down from technology development, it would give an
advantage to Qualcomm's major competitor, China-based Huawei
[pronounced WAH way] Technologies Co., , the world's largest
telecommunications-equipment manufacturer. So, based on this logic,
the administration determined that the merger would pose a national
security risk.

However, as convenient and simplistic as that explanation is, there
are obviously much bigger issues. There has been growing resistance
in both the White House and in Congress to allowing Chinese
investments in the US and imposing tariffs on a broad range of its
imports to punish Beijing for its alleged theft of intellectual
property.

Theft of intellectual property is the real heart of the matter.
Whether based in Singapore of the US, Broadcom has ties to
several Chinese firms, most notably Huawei, the world's largest
telecommunications-equipment manufacturer.

China uses every opportunity it can to force any company wanting
to do business in China to make all its intellectual property
available to a government-controlled company, and hence to
any other Chinese company. It's feared that if Broadcom
acquires Qualcomm, then China will find a way to force the
merged company to turn over all its intellectual property to
the Chinese government.

President Donald Trump has been extremely critical of China's trade
practices well before becoming president. In the last year, Trump has
killed almost a dozen attempted takeovers by foreign countries, and in
all but one of the cases, the foreign country was China. In August of
last year, Trump ordered an official investigation of China's
practices:

<QUOTE>U.S Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer formally
initiated an investigation of China under Section 301 of the Trade
Act of 1974. The investigation will seek to determine whether
acts, policies, and practices of the Government of China related
to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation are
unreasonable or discriminatory and burden or restrict
U.S. commerce."<END QUOTE>

This investigation is still ongoing. If the investigation finds
against China, then the US could impose a number of penalties,
probably triggering retaliation.

Computer chips, such as those produced by Broadcom, Qualcomm and
Huawei, are used not only in desktop computers and smartphones, but
also in all kinds of military devices. White House and Bloomberg and US Trade Representative (14-Aug-2017) and AP and Variety


****
**** Government urges not doing business with China's Huawei and ZTE
****

Amazon and Best Buy are now offering a new Android smartphone, the
Huawei Mate SE, with a large 5.93-inch screen and a big battery, for
just $229. However, six intelligence agencies, including the CIA, FBI
and NSA, are all advising Americans not to do business with Chinese
firms Huawei Technologies Co. or ZTE Corp.

In February, FBI directory Christopher Wray testified:

<QUOTE>"We're deeply concerned about the risks of allowing
any company or entity that is beholden to foreign governments that
don't share our values to gain positions of power inside our
telecommunications networks.

That provides the capacity to exert pressure or control over our
telecommunications infrastructure. It provides the capacity to
maliciously modify or steal information. And it provides the
capacity to conduct undetected espionage."<END QUOTE>

A Huawei spokesman responded in a statement:

<QUOTE>"Huawei is aware of a range of U.S. government
activities seemingly aimed at inhibiting Huawei's business in the
U.S. market. Huawei is trusted by governments and customers in 170
countries worldwide and poses no greater cybersecurity risk than
any ICT vendor, sharing as we do common global supply chains and
production capabilities."<END QUOTE>

Well, he's not denying that Huawei could maliciously modify and steal
information, and conduct undetected espionage. So I'll take that as a
"yes," the Chinese are doing exactly that. And 170 other governments
are stupid enough to allow it.

I wrote about this subject
back in
2012, when the House Intelligence Committee warned against doing
business with Huawei and ZTE, and were warning about a "Cyberwar Pearl
Harbor attack" from China. At that time, Secretary of Defense Leon
Panetta warned that chips manufactured by Huawei or ZTE could be
controlled remotely by the Chinese, and develop tools that could
"cause panic and destruction and even the loss of life." For example,
working remoted, China could "derail passenger trains or even more
dangerous, derail trains loaded with lethal chemicals."

I've a part of my career developing chip-level operating system
software for embedded systems, so I know exactly how to do what
Panetta is suggesting. Furthermore, I can tell you that not only is
it doable, it's not even particularly difficult for someone with the
right skills.

Huawei could develop a chipset that works exactly as described
in the public specifications. The chipset could be subjected
to thousands of tests, and they would all work perfectly.

But what Huawei could do is install a "backdoor" into the chipset.
When the chip receives, say, a secret 1024-bit code, then it
will execute commands sent to it by Chinese engineers. Thus,
the Chinese are then in control of any devices with Huawei or
ZTE chips.

As I said, this is not only doable, it's easy to do. The "backdoor"
could not be detected until an attack had been launched, and then
it would be too late.

And since it CAN be done, I'm absolutely certain that it HAS been
done.

Huawei was founded by Ren Zhengfei, a former Red Army engineer. China
has been preparing for war with the U.S. in every possible way.
They've built large, illegal military bases in the South China Sea,
and repeatedly lied about them. They've developed numerous
nuclear-tipped ballistic and hypersonic missile systems designed to
successfully strike and destroy American aircraft carriers, American
cities, and American bases. They've demonstrated a capability to
destroy American communications and GPS satellites. They have
thousands of missiles ready to launch against Taiwan, and they have
large military deployments in western Tibet ready to invade India.

China has been preparing in every possible way for years for a
successful pre-emptive military strike against the United States, and
there is absolutely no doubt that they would also prepare by
installing "backdoors" in all the chips and switches and other
electronic devices that they sell.

Basically, any electronic device linked to a Chinese firm is under
suspicion, because it's almost certain that the Chinese are preparing
to use backdoors and other tools to take control of them remotely in
time of war. The Broadcom acquisition of Qualcomm does not have an
obvious relation to this threat, but an opening might occur in the
future as Broadcom and Huawei continue to do business.

The Trump administration is using every tool it can to prevent
anything that might in the future give Chinese engineers the chance to
control American electronic devices. Killing attempted Chinese
acquisitions of American products is one way of doing that. CNBC and Forbes and Reuters (16-Jan) and CNBC (13-Feb)

Related Articles:

• Huawei scandal exposes potential 'Cyberwar Pearl Harbor' from China (14-Oct-2012)
  
  
• New report reveals massive cyber war attack by China's army (20-Feb-2013)
  
  
• Major defense contractor QinetiQ hacked for years by China (06-May-2013)
  
  
• American businesses debate cyber counter-attack on China (13-Mar-2013)
  
  
• Discussion of China's directive to 'Get Ready for War' (21-Jan-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Broadcom, Singapore, Qualcomm, China,
Huawei Technologies Co., ZTE Corp., Huawei Mate SE, Ren Zhengfei,
Robert Lighthizer, Christopher Wray, Leon Panetta,
House Intelligence Committee,
South China Sea, Japan, Tibet, India

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

(03-13-2018, 02:08 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(03-13-2018, 01:03 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   The Skripal case is especially notable because Skripal had been
>   part of an agreed exchange.  Back in the Soviet days, Russia
>   tended to keep their word, and I don't believe they tried to
>   assassinate people whom they had agreed to trade away.

>   Either the Russian government is no longer trustworthy as it used
>   to be, or it has lost control of the FSB.  

When, exactly, was the Russian government trustworthy?

When it was part of the Soviet Union.  Not trustworthy in terms of behaving in what we would consider a reasonable way, mind, but it was trustworthy in the sense that it kept its promises.

[Cynic Hero '86]

None of this talk of Chinese companies using backdoors in potential wartime scenarios matters now, it would take years for the Chinese to set up the proper infrastructure and distribution. Trump has Just Fired Tillerson and replaced him with Pompeo, a known hawk on North Korea. So the Strike on North Korea is a Go, the strike on NK is likely very soon. China and Russia will do nothing because 1). MAD still Applies 2). Neither China or Russia is currently Hegemon, the US is. Also Both Russia and China have survivable second-strike abilities Just like we do, An American strike on North Korea would therefore NOT be a "use it or lose it scenario" for them.

[pbrower2a]

Parley followed by a sneak attack is inexcusable. That is what Satan Hussein did to Kuwait.

The Chinese can hurt us. The cheap consumer goods that now serve as the opiate of the masses will cease being available in the US market. Inflation will strike, and whoever is in charge will pay a political price.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(03-14-2018, 12:45 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Parley followed by a sneak attack is inexcusable. That is what Satan Hussein did to Kuwait.

The Chinese can hurt us. The cheap consumer goods that now serve as the opiate of the masses will cease being available in the US market. Inflation will strike, and whoever is in charge will pay a political price.

A Sneak attack could be what Kim is trying to do, he doesn't seem to be the most rational sort of fellow, to put it mildly. Therefore striking North Korea first is still the best option in my opinion.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Mar-18 World View -- Thousands of Ethiopian Oromos flee into Kenya, threatening regional stability

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of Ethiopian Oromos flee into Kenya, threatening regional stability
  
• Fears grow that Ethiopia's ethnic clashes will destabilize the region
  

****
**** Thousands of Ethiopian Oromos flee into Kenya, threatening regional stability
****


Deserted streets in Ethiopia's capital city Addis Ababa, as businesses closed after strike called by Oromo activists (AFP)

Over 8,000 Ethiopians, mostly ethnic Oromos, have fled Ethiopia since
Saturday and are pouring into an emergency refugee camp being set up
in Kenya. The camp is in the town of Moyale, the capital of Marsabit
County in Kenya, and is on a plot partially owned by the governor of
Marsabit.

Moyale is a border town split into two parts, with one side in
Ethiopia and one side in Kenya. The Oromos fled from Moyale in
Ethiopia, when Ethiopian soldiers on Saturday shot nine civilians.
According to Ethiopian state media, the soldiers shot the civilians by
mistake in a botched raid, after mistaking them for members of a
banned activist group, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF).

But several residents of Ethiopia's Moyale said that it wasn't
a mistake at all, but was intentional on the part of the soldiers,
and specifically targeted at random at a crowd of residents:

<QUOTE>"It was then a military vehicle came along. The
military jumped out of the car and started shooting aimlessly,
killing indiscriminately. Some of them were killed in their
homes. Some of them were killed while they were having their
lunch. Some others were killed while they were selling in their
shops."<END QUOTE>

Massive anti-government protests began in Ethiopia's Oromia region
late in 2015, and spread to the neighboring Amhara region, leaving
hundreds dead and resulting in tens of thousands of arrests. A state
of emergency was imposed in October 2016, allowing mass detentions,
and imposing numerous restrictions on people’s movement and
communication.

The first state of emergency ended only a few months ago, in August
2017. Anti-government protests began again, and by February there
were millions of protesters. This led to the shock resignation of the
prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn on February 15. In his letter of
resignation, he wrote, "I see my resignation as vital in the bid to
carry out reforms that would lead to sustainable peace and democracy."

Not surprisingly, Hailemariam's resignation didn't end the protests,
but instead led to more activism. The result was that the
government's Council of Ministers declared a new state of emergency
that "would be instrumental in thwarting ethnic-based conflicts in the
country and safeguarding the constitutional order." The Nation (Kenya) and AFP (14-Mar) and Reuters and AFP

****
**** Fears grow that Ethiopia's ethnic clashes will destabilize the region
****

As I've previously described in a detailed generational analysis of Ethiopia's protests,
Ethiopia's
last generational crisis war occurred in 1991, when the Marxist Derg
dictatorship was overthrown. Since 1991, the government has been
largely controlled by the ethnic Tigrayans, who are a market and
government dominant minority, comprising only 6% of the population.
Although the Tigrayans comprise only a tiny fraction of the
population, the Tigrayan governing coalition has been able to
increasingly marginalized the two largest ethnic groups, the Oromo
ethnic group (34% of Ethiopia's population), and among the Amhara
ethnic group (27%).

The kind of violence that occurred last weekend is typical of what
happens in the generational Awakening era following a generational
crisis war that's also a tribal or ethnic war. In these cases, when
the war ends, the two warring groups reside in the same country, and
sometimes even in the same villages and towns. As a result, memories
of the massacres, rapes, mutilations and torture that occurred during
the war are constantly refreshed by seeing members of the other tribe
on the streets and in the shops.

That certainly seems to be exactly what's happening here. The
government is supposedly investigating what happened on Saturday, and
has promised that the guilty parties will be punished, but the most
likely explanation is that the soldiers were ethnic Tigrayans who
retain bitter memories of how the Oromos killed their wives or sons,
and are getting revenge. No investigation will prevent that from
happening again.

The anti-government protests are far from over, and they pose the
largest challenge to Ethiopia’s ruling coalition since it took power
in 1991.

In the last two years, more than 900,000 people have been forced from
their homes. The Oromo Liberation Front is an activist youth movement
of a kind that is typical in generational Awakening eras (such as
America in the 1960s). Widespread protest strikes have closed down
shops and businesses.

On Monday, a week-long "fuel blockade" protest action began, blocking
roads and preventing fuel tankers from leaving the capital city Addis
Ababa and supplying fuel to other towns.

The government is already without a prime minister, since the
resignation of Hailemariam Desalegn on February 15. The massive
protests and protest actions are threatening the government, and the
brutal state of emergency is apparently having no effect in bringing
the protests under control. With thousands of Ethiopians crossing the
border into Kenya, a country with its own governmental crisis and
ethnic problems, it's feared that the unrest in Ethiopia could spread
to other countries in the Horn of Africa. Guardian (London) and France 24 and Africa News and Bloomberg (6-Mar) and Africa News (28-Feb)

Related Articles

• Ethiopia declares state of emergency after shock resignation of prime minister (17-Feb-2018)
  
  
• General warns of US security danger if China acquires Djibouti seaport (11-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Ethiopia declares extraordinary six-month state of emergency (10-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea (14-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Tensions rise between Egypt and Ethiopia over Nile River dam (25-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Ethiopians crush Islamists in Somalia, forcing retreat to Kenya (02-Jan-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Hailemariam Desalegn,
Tigrayans, Oromos, Amharas, Kenya, Moyale, Marsabit County,
Oromo Liberation Front, OLF

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

Kim has Just restarted his Nuclear reactor production, So JohnX, So Boomers; how is that not striking NK thing working out for you?

[Cynic Hero '86]

The Presence of a popular vote in elections is what makes a country a Democracy. Therefore Russia, Iran, as well as the new governments in Turkey and the Philippines are democratic as those countries have elections and electoral rights for citizens. Therefore Xenakis, boomer ideologues like yourself promote democracy yet have forgotten the actual definition of democracy.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Mar-18 World View -- Concerns grow of humanitarian disaster in Afrin, Syria, as Turkey's forces enter

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Concerns grow of humanitarian disaster in Afrin, Syria, as Turkey's forces enter
  
• Silence from North Korea puts Kim-Trump summit in doubt
  

****
**** Concerns grow of humanitarian disaster in Afrin, Syria, as Turkey's forces enter
****


Syrians flee from airstrikes and shelling of village near Afrin (Reuters)

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday, "We have
got a little closer to Afrin. I hope that Afrin will, God willing,
have completely fallen by the evening."

Erdogan was alluding to Operation Olive Branch, the military operation
that began on January 20 with the objective of taking control of the
northeastern Syria city of Afrin from the Kurdish People's Protection
Units (YPG). Originally, Erdogan promised that the operation would be
completed by the end of January.

The YPG is linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has
been conducting a violent insurgency in Turkey for three decades, and
has performed multiple major terrorist attacks in major Turkish cities
in the last three years. The PKK is considered a terrorist group by
the US and the EU.

The operation wasn't completed by Wednesday evening as Erdogan hoped,
but on Thursday Turkey's presidential spokesman said:

<QUOTE>"Over 70 percent of Syria’s Afrin region has been
secured during Operation Olive Branch.

The circle has been completely tightened around the terrorists. We
predict that the center of Afrin will be completely cleared of
terrorists within a short period of time. They wanted to make
Afrin a new Qandil. This [desire] has been eliminated through
Operation Olive Branch."<END QUOTE>

The phrase "new Qandil" refers to the Qandil mountains in Iraq where
the PKK has its headquarters.

In order to complete the mission, Turkish forces have been bombarding
the city with airstrikes and artillery shelling, to the extent that
many people are beginning to compare the Turkish assault on Afrin to
the ferocity of the attack on Eastern Ghouta by the army of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad, backed up by Russian warplanes. However,
al-Assad has been regularly dropping barrel bombs packed with
explosives and metal and laced with chlorine gas onto civilian
neighborhoods and markets in order to kill as many women and children
as possible. Erdogan so far has not been taking similar steps in
Afrin.

Still, the bombs and artillery have taken their toll, to the point
where there is a fear of a full-scale humanitarian crisis. There are
350,000 people living in central Afrin, and in just the last 24 hours,
some 30,000 civilians were forced to flee from their homes, according
to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The water supply has been
cut off, and a siege has prevented food and medicines from entering
the city, except for just one UN humanitarian aid convoy in early
March.

YPG leaders claim that the Turkish forces are nowhere close to winning
in Afrin, and it remains to be seen whether the Turkish forces will
become more and more like the Syrian army forces in Eastern Ghouta.
Middle East Eye and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Al Arabiya and Asharq Al Awsat (London) and Middle East Eye

Related Articles:

• Socialists and feminists to act as 'human shields' protecting Kurds from Turkey in Afrin Syria (12-Mar-2018)
  
  
• In major reversal, Turkey will let US use Incirlik to fight ISIS in Syria (24-Jul-2015)
  
  
• A new terrorist bombing (by PKK) in Istanbul Turkey kills dozens (11-Dec-2016)
  
  
• US-backed Kurds stop fighting ISIS in order to fight Turkey in Afrin (08-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Turkey begins its air and ground invasion of Syria's Afrin (21-Jan-2018)
  

****
**** Silence from North Korea puts Kim-Trump summit in doubt
****

There has been total silence from North Korean on the planned
summit meeting between Donald Trump and North Korea's child
dictator Kim Jong-un. There have been no articles or commentary
in the North Korean press. There is no word that North Korea
is making any preparations for a summit, even though the
initial invitation from Kim, sent through the South Koreans,
was that Kim "wanted to meet urgently" with Trump.

There has been no sign that the North Koreans want to go ahead with
the summit, whether urgently or not. When I first wrote about the planned summit,
one of the things I
speculated about was that Kim had extended the invitation expecting it
to be rejected, or at least expecting any acceptance to be burdened
down with a bundle of preconditions that would never be met. That
meant that the invitation was not real, but was a negotiating ploy
intended to humiliate Trump. But then Kim must have been surprised
when Trump accepted the invitation immediately, without preconditions,
although some preconditions were added later.

The first possible sign that some preparation is being made occurred
on Thursday, when North Korea's foreign minister Ri Yong Ho paid a
surprise visit to Sweden. However, the purpose of the meeting has not
been announced, except to discuss the security situation on the Korean
peninsula.

Meanwhile, North Korea is continuing to stall, in order to give
itself breathing space to complete development of its nuclear
weapon and long-range ballistic missile program. There's no
doubt that development work continued during the Olympics games,
and that it's continuing to this day.

Instead of meeting "very urgently," perhaps Kim just wants to stall
further, and delay the meeting as long as possible, until his weapons
program is a fait accompli. LA Times and CNN

Related Articles:

• The Donald Trump - Kim Jong-un meeting hinges on a decision that Kim has already made (10-Mar-2018)
  
  
• China angrily demands that the US retract the new North Korea sanctions (25-Feb-2018)
  
  
• US considers military options as North Korea continues nuclear weapons development during Olympics (21-Feb-2018)
  
  
• What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? (12-Feb-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Afrin,
Operation Olive Branch, Iraq, Qandil mountains,
People's Protection Units, YPG, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Bashar al-Assad, Eastern Ghouta, Russia,
North Korea, Kim Jong-un, South Korea, Sweden, Ri Yong Ho

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

(03-15-2018, 10:24 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ****
**** Silence from North Korea puts Kim-Trump summit in doubt
****

There has been total silence from North Korean on the planned
summit meeting between Donald Trump and North Korea's child
dictator Kim Jong-un.  There have been no articles or commentary
in the North Korean press.  There is no word that North Korea
is making any preparations for a summit, even though the
initial invitation from Kim, sent through the South Koreans,
was that Kim "wanted to meet urgently" with Trump.

There has been no sign that the North Koreans want to go ahead with
the summit, whether urgently or not.  When I first wrote about the planned summit,
one of the things I
speculated about was that Kim had extended the invitation expecting it
to be rejected, or at least expecting any acceptance to be burdened
down with a bundle of preconditions that would never be met.  That
meant that the invitation was not real, but was a negotiating ploy
intended to humiliate Trump.  But then Kim must have been surprised
when Trump accepted the invitation immediately, without preconditions,
although some preconditions were added later.

The first possible sign that some preparation is being made occurred
on Thursday, when North Korea's foreign minister Ri Yong Ho paid a
surprise visit to Sweden.  However, the purpose of the meeting has not
been announced, except to discuss the security situation on the Korean
peninsula.

Meanwhile, North Korea is continuing to stall, in order to give
itself breathing space to complete development of its nuclear
weapon and long-range ballistic missile program.  There's no
doubt that development work continued during the Olympics games,
and that it's continuing to this day.

Instead of meeting "very urgently," perhaps Kim just wants to stall
further, and delay the meeting as long as possible, until his weapons
program is a fait accompli. LA Times and CNN

Related Articles:

• The Donald Trump - Kim Jong-un meeting hinges on a decision that Kim has already made (10-Mar-2018)
  
  
• China angrily demands that the US retract the new North Korea sanctions (25-Feb-2018)
  
  
• US considers military options as North Korea continues nuclear weapons development during Olympics (21-Feb-2018)
  
  
• What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? (12-Feb-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Afrin,
Operation Olive Branch, Iraq, Qandil mountains,
People's Protection Units, YPG, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Bashar al-Assad, Eastern Ghouta, Russia,
North Korea, Kim Jong-un, South Korea, Sweden, Ri Yong Ho

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum:    http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

Does this Mean we are still going to Strike North Korea? All Evidence indicates that doing so is the best option available to America.

[John J. Xenakis]

(03-16-2018, 10:11 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Does this Mean we are still going to Strike North Korea? All
> Evidence indicates that doing so is the best option available to
> America.

I'm not aware of any change in this policy. It's still the case that
North Korea will not be permitted to develop the ability to deliver a
nuclear weapon to American soil. The extremely harsh sanctions are an
attempt to achieve this policy diplomatically, but the military option
has never been removed, as far as I'm aware.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(03-16-2018, 10:25 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(03-16-2018, 10:11 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   Does this Mean we are still going to Strike North Korea? All
>   Evidence indicates that doing so is the best option available to
>   America.

I'm not aware of any change in this policy.  It's still the case that
North Korea will not be permitted to develop the ability to deliver a
nuclear weapon to American soil.  The extremely harsh sanctions are an
attempt to achieve this policy diplomatically, but the military option
has never been removed, as far as I'm aware.

Sanctions is boomer-ese for doing nothing. The US government under boomers has consistently refused to take any measures regarding North Korea, and has therefore betrayed its commitments regarding both national security and their commitments to US law.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Mar-18 World View -- Ireland border issue continues to confound Brexit negotiations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ireland border issue continues to confound Brexit negotiations
  
• Despite warnings from China, Trump signs the Taiwan Travel Act
  

****
**** Ireland border issue continues to confound Brexit negotiations
****


Ireland's prime minister Leo Varadkar (L) visits US-Canada border to see if the same thing would work for the Ireland - Northern Ireland border. He tweeted, 'Just visited the Canada-US border. It's high tech and highly efficient, but make no mistake - it's a hard border.'

The British Parliament's Northern Ireland Affairs Committee issued a
report on Friday that came about as close to saying "the Brexit
Ireland border problem has no solution" as possible, while following
the unwritten political rules of never saying anything so definitive.

The Brexit Ireland border problem is the problem of the border between
Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland
(Southern Ireland), which will remain in the EU after Brexit. If the
UK is not part of the EU, then there would have be border controls
between Ireland and Northern Ireland, a concept that almost everyone
rejects, because any border controls are feared likely to result in a
renewal of "The Troubles," the decades of violence between the
indigenous ethnic Irish Gaelics (Catholic, Republican) and the
descendants of the English and Scottish invaders (Protestant,
Unionist).

The border across Ireland first appeared in 1921 as a result of the
British-Irish treaty that partitioned the island and ended the Irish
War of Independence. It ran across farms and villages and, following
the outbreak of hostilities in the North in 1969, was reinforced with
British Army watchtowers and bomb-proof and mortar-proof inspection
facilities.

All of that infrastructure was removed as a result of the 1998 Good
Friday Agreement that saw the Provisional IRA disarm in exchange for a
new power-sharing accord that was supposed to break down some of the
barriers between south and north, including the physical barrier at
the border.

So everyone says they want no return to the physical barriers.
Instead, they want to maintain a "frictionless border" between Ireland
and Northern Ireland, meaning that cars and trucks can continue to
freely cross the border in either direction, just as they can today.

But that would mean that a Spanish company that wants to ship goods to
England without paying British tariffs could simply trans-ship them
through Northern Ireland -- that is, ship them to Ireland, send them
across the "frictionless border" to Northern Ireland, and then ship
them across the Irish Sea to England. Similarly, an English firm
could ship goods to Spain by trans-shipping in the opposite direction,
and avoid paying EU tariffs.

The main conclusions of Friday's report from the Northern Ireland
Affairs Committee are as follows:

• "The Committee concluded that the Government’s proposals are
  imaginative but that it will not have the time to implement a new
  non-visible customs regime before withdrawal day."
  
  
• "The Committee rejected any proposals for customs checks which
  would result in a customs border down the Irish Sea. This would create
  a costly barrier to trade with Northern Ireland’s largest market and
  would be incompatible with the spirit and intent of the Belfast/Good
  Friday Agreement."
  
  
• "The Committee found that additional infrastructure at the
  [Ireland - Northern Ireland] border would not only be politically
  objectional but ineffective and unworkable."
  
  
• "Leaving the EU without a substantial agreement would have very
  negative consequences for avoiding a hard border. The Committee
  welcomed commitments that this would not happen."

At one point, Theresa May said, "There are many examples of different
arrangements for customs around the rest of the world, and indeed we
are looking at those, including, for example, the border between the
United States and Canada." However, an opponent pointed out that
"There are guns and armed customs guards" on the US-Canada border.

In fact, Leo Varadkar, the Taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland, did
pay a visit to the US-Canada border, and tweeted:

<QUOTE>"Just visited the Canada-US border. It's high tech and
highly efficient, but make no mistake - it's a hard
border."<END QUOTE>

The logic of the situation is as follows:

• Ireland's prime minister Leo Varadkar has said that he will
  not approve any plan that does not maintain a frictionless border
  between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
  
  
• The leaders of EU27 (the EU without the UK) have said that they
  will side with Varadkar against the UK in all decisions, since Ireland
  will be part of the EU, and the UK will not.
  
  
• Protestant (Unionist) leaders in Northern Ireland will not accept
  any solution that does not maintain a frictionless border between
  Northern Ireland and England -- i.e., across the Irish Sea.
  
  
• Catholic (Republican) leaders in Northern Ireland are demanding
  that Northern Ireland secede from the UK and unite with the Republic
  of Ireland.

Theresa May has also put forth a suggestion that a "high tech" way
will be found to keep the Irish border frictionless. I've never seen
an explanation about how that's supposed to work -- supposedly some
kind of magic device at the border would scan each car and truck
crossing the border and figure out whether it contains anything that
needs to be taxed.

Friday's report rejected the high-tech solution:

<QUOTE>"The UK government has repeatedly underlined that the
free movement of people across the border will not be affected and
that no physical infrastructure will be put in place. However, the
committee was unable to identify any border solution currently in
operation across the globe that would enable physical
infrastructure to be avoided when rules and tariffs
diverge."<END QUOTE>

EU diplomats last week warned May last week that the high-tech
solution is unrealistic, and that she must back down.

The UK and the EU will begin three days of the next round of the
delusional Brexit negotiations on Saturday. It's not expected that a
solution to the Ireland border problem will be found. BBC and
UK Parliament and Canadian Broadcasting (22-Aug-2017) and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

• Brexit negotiations collapse over Ireland border issue (05-Dec-2017)
  
  
• The issue of Ireland's border threatens to collapse EU-UK Brexit negotiations. (28-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Britain's Tony Blair calls for the people 'to rise up' and reverse Brexit (18-Feb-2017)
  
  
• European anger and British self-delusion follow Brexit plan speech (19-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** Despite warnings from China, Trump signs the Taiwan Travel Act
****

President Donald Trump on Friday evening ET signed the Taiwan Travel
Act, which had passed both houses of Congress unanimously, and was
sent to the President on February 28. A veto would likely have been
overridden by Congress and, according to the Constitution, the Act
would have become law automatically on Saturday if Trump had done
nothing. Trump decided to sign it, apparently as a signal to China
that he was specifically ignoring their warnings.

The Chinese embassy issued a statement:

<QUOTE>"[The Act] severely violates the one-China principle,
the political foundation of the China-U.S. relationship.

China is strongly dissatisfied with that and firmly opposes it.
[The United States should] stop pursuing any official ties with
Taiwan or improving its current relations with Taiwan in any
substantive way."<END QUOTE>

China has threatened Taiwan with a military invasion if it makes any
move, by word or deed, towards independence. Arguably, it has already
done that many times.

The United States has not had official diplomatic relations with
Taiwan since 1979, choosing instead to have diplomatic relations with
China. China refuses to have formal relations with any country that
has relations with Taiwan.

The Taiwan Travel Act makes it legal for officials from the executive
branch of the US government to visit Taiwan, or to invite Taiwan's
leaders to visit Washington for official diplomatic meetings, if they
choose to do so.

An official statement from Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA)
expressed the government's sincerest thanks for the goodwill and
friendship that the United States has shown to Taiwan over the years.
Taiwan News
and Reuters and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)

Related Articles

• In a major victory for China, Panama switches allegiance from Taiwan to China (14-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Following the money, Sao Tome and Principe switches allegiance from Taiwan to China (28-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election (17-Jan-2016)
  
  
• No war erupted from Trump's ten minute phone call with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen (05-Dec-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Leo Varadkar,
Britain, Theresa May, Northern Ireland Affairs Committee,
Good Friday Agreement, Canada-US border,
Taiwan, Taiwan Travel Act, China

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Mar-18 World View -- Human rights protests of Cambodia and Myanmar (Burma) overshadow Australia ASEAN summit meeting

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Malaysia's Najib Razak condemns Myanmar's (Burma's) genocide of Rohingyas at ASEAN summit
  
• Cambodia's Hun Sen threatens violence at protesters at ASEAN meeting
  

****
**** Malaysia's Najib Razak condemns Myanmar's (Burma's) genocide of Rohingyas at ASEAN summit
****


Demonstrators protesting Myanmar (Burma) genocide of Rohingyas at ASEAN summit on Saturday (AP)

It used to be a rule of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) that member states are forbidden from interfering in each
other's internal affairs, which means that no member nation is
permitted to criticize the internal policies of another member nation.
That rule was in place to prevent the group from fracturing, and from
discussing happy subjects like trade.

But the extreme genocidal violence and ethnic cleansing of ethnic
Rohingyas by the government of Myanmar (Burma) has caused Malaysia's
Prime Minister Najib Razak to denounce Burma's leader Aung San Suu Kyi
personally, in a speech at the ASEAN summit, while she was sitting on
the stage nearby. Suu Kyi won the Nobel Peace Prize years ago,
back before she turned into a modern day Hitler.

Razak justified his open criticism of Suu Kyi by saying that the
situation was a threat to the entire region's security. In
particular, he said that it was encouraging jihadists groups in the
region, such as those in the southern Philippine city of Marawi last
year, of becoming affiliated with the so-called Islamic State (IS or
ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). According to Razak:

<QUOTE>"Because of the suffering of Rohingya people and that
of displacement around the region, the situation in Rakhine state
and Myanmar can no longer be considered to be a purely domestic
matter.

In addition, the problem should not be looked at through the
humanitarian prism only because it has the potential of developing
into a serious security threat to the region.

Rakhine with thousands of despairing... people who see no hope in
the future will be a fertile ground for radicalization and
recruitment by (ISIS) and affiliated groups.

We must be vigilant and increase our collaboration, because the
collapse of (ISIS) territories in Iraq and Syria has forced it to
go underground and re-emerge elsewhere, especially in crisis zones
where it can grow and operate.

We must draw lessons from Marawi and be extremely concerned that
at least 10 militant groups in the Mindanao region (of the
Philippines) have declared their affiliation to
(ISIS)."<END QUOTE>

ASEAN has ten members: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Australia
is not a member, but is hosting the ASEAN summit meeting.

Razak has criticized Suu Kyi in speeches in Malaysia. In 2016
he said to thousands of Malaysians at a rally in Kuala Lumpur:

<QUOTE>"The world cannot sit by and watch genocide taking
place. The world cannot just say 'look, it is not our problem'. It
is our problem."<END QUOTE>

Razak is under pressure from the hardline Malaysian Islamist group
Hizbut Tahrir, who have in the past demanded that Malaysia's army
conduct a jihad against Burma. AFP and Australian Broadcasting

Related Articles

• Bangladesh formally protests Burma's (Myanmar's) troop buildup near border (02-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Asian jihadists become radicalized by Burma's (Myanmar's) Rohingya slaughter (07-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Burma's (Myanmar's) ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas witnessed by BBC reporter (09-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Generational history of Burma (Myanmar) (26-Sep-2007)
  
  
• Malaysia expels North Korean ambassador as relations deteriorate (05-Mar-2017)
  

****
**** Cambodia's Hun Sen threatens violence at protesters at ASEAN meeting
****

The ASEAN summit meeting in Sydney, Australian, was met with large
groups protesting human rights violations by Burma's Aung San Suu Kyi
and Cambodia's Hun Sen.

Before Saturday, it was not even certain that Cambodia's prime
minister Hun Sen would show up, since he was apparently furious at
learning that there would be large protests of Cambodian-Australians
in Sydney. On February 21, he warned protesters not to burn effigies
of him, saying:

<QUOTE>"I will follow you all the way to your doorstep and
beat you right there ... I can use violence against
you."<END QUOTE>

This threat triggered a mass burning by protesters of effigies bearing
Hun Sen's face. Two weeks later, Hun Sen described the protesters as
"crazy and stupid," and said that they had "fallen into his trap": "In
fact, speaking truly and clarifying for you, you are being tricked by
Hun Sen. Do not play with Hun Sen, you are still very weak."

Hun Sen has been in power for 33 years, since 1985, following the
massive Buddhist "Killing Fields" genocide in Cambodia in 1975-79.
Led by Pol Pot, this was one of the top mass genocides of the 20th
century. The genocide killed something like 1.7 to well over 2
million people, out of a population of 8 million. So around 20% of
Cambodia's population were killed, making it possibly the worst
genocide, on a percentage basis, of the 20th century.

Hun Sen has remained in power since then, but started becoming
a lot more authoritarian after the opposition political party,
the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) almost won the
2013 election, and has become increasingly popular since then.

Fearing that he might be defeated in the 2018 elections, Hun
Sen has been targeting CNRP leaders, arresting dozens of them
on phony charges. The Hun Sen-controlled Supreme Court
last year declared the CNRP to be an illegal political party.
In addition, Hun Sen has been brutally suppressing protests,
banning all protests and jailing protesters. He's shut
print and radio media sources, and jailed reporters.

One of the lead protesters in Sydney was Bou Rachana, the wife of
murdered Cambodian politician Kem Ley, who was killed in Hun Sen's
crackdown.

Cambodia's parliament has recently amended the constitution to tighten
restrictions on voting rights and freedom of association, and a
provision that insulting Hun Sen can result in being jailed for five
- years.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Hun Sen is following
exactly the same pattern that many other countries have followed
following a generational crisis civil war between different tribes or
ethnic groups. After the war ends, the leader of the country, usually
from the winning tribe or ethnic group, refuses to give up power, and
becomes increasingly violent and authoritarian, using as an excuse
that peaceful protests or negative news articles can turn into a new
civil war. This excuse provides justification for mass slaughter,
rape, torture, mass jailings, mutilations, and so forth. I've
described this behavior in Bashar al-Assad in Syria, who has gone to
the extent of using Sarin gas and barrel bombs packed with explosives
and metal and laced with chlorine gas onto civilian neighborhoods and
markets in order to kill as many women and children as possible Other
leaders that I've described exhibiting this type of behavior include
Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi, Paul Kagame in
Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, and
Joseph Kabila in DRC.

This weekend's ASEAN summit is on economics and counter-terrorism,
but the protests are causing those issues to be overshadowed
by human rights. According Human Rights Watch:

<QUOTE>"Shutting one’s eyes and hoping that closer trade and
security ties will somehow magically transform abusive governments
into rights-respecting ones doesn’t work.

The ASEAN summit shouldn’t just be an opportunity to dance with
dictators, but a chance to publicly press them over horrific human
rights abuses."<END QUOTE>

ASEAN is already divided between countries like Vietnam and Indonesia
that oppose China's illegal creation of a massive military fortress in
the South China Sea, versus countries like Cambodia and Laos that
support China. Myanmar's ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas, and
Cambodia's authoritarian slaughter, rape and torture of political
opponents are issues that are further splitting ASEAN, leading some to
wonder whether it even makes sense for ASEAN to continue to exist.
Quartz (15-Mar) and Phnom Penh Post (5-Mar) and Deutsche Welle (27-Nov-2017) and Australian Broadcasting

Related Articles

• Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun Sen can be reelected unopposed (17-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Burma's (Myanmar's) leaders may be inspired by Pol Pot's Cambodian 'Killing Fields' genocide (29-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Cambodia bans all sales of sand to Singapore (20-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Thailand vs Cambodia border clash damages ancient Hindu temple (17-Feb-2011)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN,
Malaysia, Najib Razak, Hizbut Tahrir, Philippines, Marawi,
Burma, Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi, Rohingyas,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Cambodia, Hun Sen, Killing fields, Pol Pot,
Cambodia National Rescue Party, CNRP, Bou Rachana, Kem Ley

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Mar-18 World View -- Burundi's Hutu 'eternal supreme guide' Nkurunziza to remain in power eternally

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Burundi's Hutu 'eternal supreme guide' Nkurunziza to remain in power eternally
  
• Reports of Trump-Kim meeting in Finland unconfirmed so far
  
• Finland is the happiest country in the world, Burundi the unhappiest
  

****
**** Burundi's Hutu 'eternal supreme guide' Nkurunziza to remain in power eternally
****


Burundi's Hutu president Pierre Nkurunziza has declared himself the 'eternal supreme guide' (AFP)

I keep telling the same story in country after country, particularly
African countries, but other countries as well. A leader stays in
office for years and decades, and takes steps to stay in office for
additional years and decades, and backs the step up by slaughtering,
torturing, raping and jailing even peaceful protesters in the
opposition.

Burundi's president Pierre Nkurunziza, who calls himself the "eternal
supreme guide" of Burundi, on Sunday signed a decree setting May 17 as
a date for a national referendum to change the constitution to permit
him to stay in office until at least 2034.

There's little doubt that Nkurunziza will win approval on the
referendum vote, because he will use violence and jailings of the
opposition, and probably vote-rigging as well.

Nkurunziza should have stepped down as leader in 2015, since the
constitution limits any leader to two terms. When Nkurunziza
announced that he would run for a third term, his police force used
bullets, tear gas and water cannons to control the protests.

Most people are familiar with the Rwanda genocide of 1994, the massive
genocide where ethnic Hutus killed close to a million ethnic Tutsis.
As I described in 2015 in the "Generational history of Hutu and Tutsi tribes"
, that
war also extended to the same tribes in neighboring Burundi and
Uganda. When the war ended, the Tutsis took power in Rwanda and
Uganda, and the Hutus took power in Burundi.

In all three countries, Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda, the respective
leaders have ignored their constitutions and used violence to stay in
power. Africa News and Reuters

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• 20,000 refugees flee violence in Burundi, fearing Hutu-Tutsi war (30-Apr-2015)
  
  
• Uganda lawmakers throw fists and chairs at each other over Museveni's power grab (28-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Rwanda's president Kagame becomes another leader refusing to leave office (19-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Burundi's Pierre Nkurunziza follows Syria's Bashar al-Assad on path to genocide (13-Oct-2016)
  

****
**** Reports of Trump-Kim meeting in Finland unconfirmed so far
****

There have been numerous speculative reports in the media in the last
two days that the much-discussed meeting between president Donald
Trump and North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un will take place in
Helsinki, Finland.

This speculation is occurring because a meeting has been scheduled
this week in Helsinki for three teams of diplomats, respectively from
the three countries North Korea, South Korea and the United States.

Apparently, this meeting was set up during a visit by North Korea's
foreign minister Ri Yong Ho to Sweden last week. That visit resulted
in speculation that the Trump-Kim meeting would occur in Sweden, but
now the speculation has moved to Finland. However, many analysts
believe that Kim Jong-un will not be willing to travel that far, and
that the meeting, if it occurs, will actually occur just south of the
DMZ in South Korea.

Some interesting news came out of a CBS News interview with South
Korea's foreign minister Kang Kyung-wha, recorded on Saturday and
broadcast on Sunday.

As we have suggested a couple of times in the past, Kim Jong-un's
silence about the possible meeting has been caused by being surprised
at Trump's quick acceptance of the invitation. Kang was asked whether
she has heard anything from North Korea about the meeting:

<QUOTE>"Well, nothing publicly. But there is a channel of
communication now established. So I'm sure there are back and
forth messages. But, I think the North Korean leader would also
need some time given the readiness with which President Trump has
accepted the invitation to talks. I think we were all quite
surprised by-- by the-- the readiness of that decision. I think it
was an extremely courageous decision on the part of President
Trump. We believe the North Korean leader is now taking stock. We
give them the benefit of the doubt, and the time that he would
need to come out with some public messaging."<END QUOTE>

I interpret this response to mean that she doesn't have a clue whether
Kim plans to go through with the meeting with Trump.

Another issue has to do with preconditions for the meeting. When
Trump first accepted, there were no preconditions. However, the next
day, Trump's spokeswoman said that some preconditions would have to be
met, namely some "concrete and verifiable actions" in the direction of
denuclearization.

So Kang was asked "What conditions do the North Koreans have to meet
before this conversation happens?", and she responded:

<QUOTE>"Well, in effect they already have. We have asked the
North to indicate in clear terms the commitment to
denuclearization, and he has in fact conveyed that commitment. ...

He's given his word. But the significance of his word is-- is
quite -- quite weighty in the sense that this is the first time
that the words came directly from the North Korean supreme leader
himself, and that has never been done before."<END QUOTE>

So let me get this straight. Kim Jong-un has not confirmed that there
will be a meeting, but he has "given his word" that he will meet the
preconditions of his "commitment to denuclearization." And, of
course, giving his word is quite different from "concrete and
verifiable actions."

Obviously this is all fatuous political nonsense, mixed in with a lot
of desperate wishful thinking on the part of the South Koreans.

Perhaps the coming three-way meeting in Helsinki will change things,
but right now the most likely scenario is that Kim is simply using the
meeting invitation as a ploy to gain time to complete his development
of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles that can carry the nuclear
weapons to Los Angeles and other US targets. Yonhap News (Seoul) and Reuters and CBS News

Related Articles:

• Silence from North Korea puts Kim-Trump summit in doubt (16-Mar-2018)
  
  
• US considers military options as North Korea continues nuclear weapons development during Olympics (21-Feb-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  

****
**** Finland is the happiest country in the world, Burundi the unhappiest
****

A new United Nations report called the "World Happiness Report" ties
together the above two stories. It finds that, out of 156 countries,
the happiest country in the world is Finland, while the unhappiest
country in the world is Burundi.

The top ten happiest countries are: Finland, Norway, Denmark, Iceland,
Switzerland, Netherlands, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, and Australia.

The ten unhappiest countries are: Malawi, Haiti, Liberia, Syria,
Rwanda, Yemen, Tanzania, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and
Burundi. AFP and World Happiness Report

Related Articles:

• Clown protesters mock Finland's xenophobic 'Soldiers of Odin' (22-Jan-2016)
  
  
• Reader comments on xenophobic 'Soldiers of Odin' in Finland (24-Jan-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burundi, Hutu, Tutsi, Pierre Nkurunziza,
Rwanda, Uganda,
Finland, North Korea, South Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Kang Kyung-wha, World Happiness Report

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[Warren Dew]

Sounds like Kim's offer to meet was a bluff, and Trump has called the bluff.

Has there ever been confirmation of Kim's offer to meet directly from the North? If not, perhaps it was a South Korean bluff.

[Cynic Hero '86]

Breaking news--- mysterious bomb threats have been issued to hundreds of schools across the UK, Russian agents suspected.