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I have figured out what the main battle of this Fourth Turning, it is Liberal Democracy vs the Alt-Right/Neo-Nationalist (which I see as a spectrum) movement. For a while I was on the fringes of the alt-right scene, I got into because of the my involvement in the counter-jihad movement and in recent years it has been entering this territory. I have recently figured out how incredibly insidious this ideology is and they are duping a lot of people, usually gradually.
I don't believe law enforcement authorities (in general) know how bad it has gotten, because they only notice when the people have reached the alt-right stage, not the neo-nationalist/alt-lite stage. For example; Milo Yiannopoulos or Jordan Peterson* and Richard Spencer are in the same movement, just on different points of the spectrum. Essentially people start on the road to the alt-right when they get 'red-pilled' or starting believing in conspiracy theories say like that of cultural Marxism. I think writing book on this whole movement (if good guys win) will become my life work, so that future generations of people can avoid same fate.
The neo-nationalist parties which are major political players now aren’t too extreme. Although it is alarming that it has entered the American Right (which is 30% odd percentage of the American public that are Trump supporters). In Australia on the other-hand they are still pretty fringe, although starting to enter into a few minor parties.
However, the second global financial crisis will come and a lack of global effort to combat it will plunge the world into an massive economic downturn like the Great Depression. Then those countries with neo-nationalist parties in power will get more extreme or more extreme alt-right parties will come to power.
The countries of Western Europe have been pretty good at identifying and containing alt-right. However the European Union is weak and neo-nationalist parties are governments in some Eastern European countries. Such parties as the Austria Freedom Party and Italy's Lega Nord are in government in those countries. Millennial students on university campuses have been good at trying to prevent speakers they deem as having 'alt-lite' or 'alt-right' ideas.
Therefore, the first Turning Purge which the one in the last first turning was McCarthyism can go two ways depending on which side wins.
If Liberal Democracy wins, anybody who part of the Neo-Nationalist/Alt-Right or even suspected of Neo-Nationalist/Alt-Right leanings. Nationalism and Populism are going to become words akin to Fascism and Nazism. I applaud Twitter and Facebook for starting to purge people with this subversion elements. Donald Trump is complaining that it unfairly targets Conservatives.
If the Neo-Nationalist/Alt-Right wins, little doubt authoritarian regimes would emerge that would be at best 'illiberal democracies' at worst downright totalitarian.
They will purge what they consider their enemies which will be at the very least.
Anybody in the media and in public life they deem as "Leftists" or "Communists".
Feminist and LBGTQ activists.
Academics and teachers which they see as peddling "Cultural Marxism".
Transgender and even Homosexual people will be regarded as suffering from a mental illness and be sent to psychiatric hospitals to be retreated.
Depending on the regime in power:
Muslims (in some areas, where they are especially big enemies of whatever alt-right regime is in power)
Jews
Other ethnic groups deemed undesirable.
These regimes death toll won’t be on the scale of Nazism or Communism, still a lot of people killed.
Ultimately the alt-right want to take society back to the 1950's (well a fantasy version). Expect the education system to be purged of anything remotely resembling “cultural Marxism” and "post-modernism".
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What if the liberals and the nationalists strike a deal somehow? This would probably be the best outcome, and it is possible if pragmatic Xer leaders replace boomers soon enough. In this case, the extremists on both sides - SJWs and identitarian will be purged, while moderate liberals and moderate nationalists will cooperate, until there is little difference between them in the 2040s.
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10-10-2018, 07:42 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2018, 08:44 AM by Teejay.)
(10-10-2018, 07:17 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: What if the liberals and the nationalists strike a deal somehow? This would probably be the best outcome, and it is possible if pragmatic Xer leaders replace boomers soon enough. In this case, the extremists on both sides - SJWs and identitarian will be purged, while moderate liberals and moderate nationalists will cooperate, until there is little difference between them in the 2040s.
To be honest, it is possible however not likely, Since I believe the rot of the alt-right online is more deeper more than people realize. I have noticed people on channels getting gradually 'red-pilled' on a constant basis. Then you have the Republican Party under Trump has started down that road, give another couple of years (barring Trump's impeachment) it is going to be even worse. There was an estimate done this year which found out 11 million White Americans hold alt-right views.
https://www.vox.com/2018/8/10/17670992/s...tionalists
Twitter, YouTube and Facebook would need to very soon (new year or less) ban anybody who is advocating the tiniest bit of alt-right stuff off social medias. Plus 'alternative' social media such as Gab need to be policed as well, that is often where all these banned off twitter, YouTube and Facebook go after being banned.
Britain for example is spending a lot of police resources (at the expense of regular law enforcement) to policing social media because they know what kind of threat the alt-right post the United Kingdom government and they are extremely determined to stamp it out. People over there getting arrested for making tweets or posting videos of say a dog giving a Nazi salute.
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(10-10-2018, 07:42 AM)Teejay Wrote: Twitter, YouTube and Facebook would need to very soon (new year or less) ban anybody who is advocating the tiniest bit of alt-right stuff off social medias. Plus 'alternative' social media such as Gab need to be policed as well, that is often where all these banned off twitter, YouTube and Facebook go after being banned.
“When truth is replaced by silence, the silence is a lie.”
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(10-10-2018, 07:17 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: What if the liberals and the nationalists strike a deal somehow? This would probably be the best outcome, and it is possible if pragmatic Xer leaders replace boomers soon enough. In this case, the extremists on both sides - SJWs and identitarian will be purged, while moderate liberals and moderate nationalists will cooperate, until there is little difference between them in the 2040s.
That still fails to address critical issues like addressing global warming (which affects profits) and inequality (that effects accumulated wealth). The mushy-middle has never addressed hard issues, and getting them into a Kumbaya Circle isn't likely to change that one iota. Instead, assume that the spineless get replaced by politicians with carbon-fiber spines, who have no problem purging everything and everyone. Once that starts, the slumbering many will awaken in a hurry, and some real progress may be possible.
Where that leads is still an open issue.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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10-10-2018, 06:20 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2018, 06:31 PM by Eric the Green.)
(10-10-2018, 07:17 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: What if the liberals and the nationalists strike a deal somehow? This would probably be the best outcome, and it is possible if pragmatic Xer leaders replace boomers soon enough. In this case, the extremists on both sides - SJWs and identitarian will be purged, while moderate liberals and moderate nationalists will cooperate, until there is little difference between them in the 2040s.
The purge is already starting, and it looks like it will continue unabated into the 1T, because millennials are joining their elders in resigning to the power of the oligarchy. There can be no such deal. The war for social justice must be won. That means the neo-nationalists must be defeated. And if that war is won by the neo-nationalists, then the oligarchy continues, and gets stronger, and the injustice of the banana republic grows and grows. That's what America wants, apparently.
There are no moderate nationalists. Nationalism is right-wing and alt-right. It is tyranny. Social justice is just the right thing for all people. As long as repression is extreme, which it is now, then "extremism" on the left, probably poorly expressed in unpopular and ineffective ways, will grow and grow until it is suppressed and the people just give up. It is not about being moderate that counts. Not at all. It is about being smart. And that's where we are severely lacking in the USA. Sad. 
We see how DUMB Americans can be now, because poll numbers for the right-wing idiots running for senate are rising, just as McConnell the dumbskull hoped. Reactionaries are "energized" because a "mob" of "social justice warriors" protested peacefully against the take-over of our government by the Kavanaugh right-wing, and shared their stories of sexual assault and rape like what Kavanaugh did, and this was denounced by right-wing crazed senators as horrible mobs "bullying" them and subjecting them to unverified claims. "Innocent until proven guilty" they cried, as if they ever cared a fig about injustice in this country! And that is enough to fool stupid Americans, even though no other witnesses were allowed, and the investigation which the flake ordered was nothing but a smoke job and a scam; in which the only possible witness was another sex offender who was not given immunity. Epic fail. Extremely sad. Turning point to destruction, it seems. It is indeed one of the worst moments I have seen in politics in america, although there have been a great many very-bad others.
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(10-10-2018, 10:26 AM)David Horn Wrote: (10-10-2018, 07:17 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: What if the liberals and the nationalists strike a deal somehow? This would probably be the best outcome, and it is possible if pragmatic Xer leaders replace boomers soon enough. In this case, the extremists on both sides - SJWs and identitarian will be purged, while moderate liberals and moderate nationalists will cooperate, until there is little difference between them in the 2040s.
That still fails to address critical issues like addressing global warming (which affects profits) and inequality (that effects accumulated wealth). The mushy-middle has never addressed hard issues, and getting them into a Kumbaya Circle isn't likely to change that one iota. Instead, assume that the spineless get replaced by politicians with carbon-fiber spines, who have no problem purging everything and everyone. Once that starts, the slumbering many will awaken in a hurry, and some real progress may be possible.
Where that leads is still an open issue.
The latter part of a Crisis defines what is possible and what is not in the gollo0wing 1T years. Fascism could not survive the whirlwind of WWII that it sowed. What remained of European aristocracy was going to be eliminated or rendered irrelevant. Extreme nationalism that sated itself in snipping pieces of territory out of neighboring or near-neighboring countries would become unwelcome. Colonial adventures would become irrelevant.
Boomers are little like Millennials even if they share common values. Those two generations will see things very differently, finding disparate solutions to the same problems. The older generations have assumed that Millennial adults would be pliant and passive... and they think wrong.
Silent, Boom, and to an extent X politics have become stale... and it will be up to Millennial adults to reshape politics. That generation will have the numbers if not the savvy.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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10-11-2018, 06:29 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2018, 06:30 AM by sbarrera.)
In the United States there could be two purges, a Red one and a Blue one, the final result of which will be two different regional legal zones - one for each side of the Culture Wars. This amount to each side "winning" the Culture Wars, and instituting its own new civic order. The two regions could even still be united in one federation - there needn't be a Constitutional reform per se.
Steve Barrera
[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure
Saecular Pages
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10-11-2018, 07:01 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2018, 07:04 AM by Theojm.)
I don't understand how some think that they can predict the "purge" continuing into the first turning? There's still 7-9 years left of the fourth turning.
How do you now the next economic recession / depression won't escalate the situation to be "solved" in 1-7 years? With the already huge debt loads of individuals/states/nations everything is at stake, it will be a time of huge inflation and deflation after that. We all know that bad things are prone to happen in the fourth turning, and the tensions are already high today, even though the economic situation of citizens in USA and EU is decent (except for millenials).
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(10-11-2018, 06:29 AM)sbarrera Wrote: In the United States there could be two purges, a Red one and a Blue one, the final result of which will be two different regional legal zones - one for each side of the Culture Wars. This amount to each side "winning" the Culture Wars, and instituting its own new civic order. The two regions could even still be united in one federation - there needn't be a Constitutional reform per se.
We're already there. I'm not sure that it's a stable state, but we definitely have a Red America and a Blue one. In fact, the fault lines are getting firmer, with the clustering of like minded people on both sides. I know I won't see that through to its finish. This seems more suited to the next saeculum than this one.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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(10-11-2018, 07:01 AM)Theojm Wrote: I don't understand how some think that they can predict the "purge" continuing into the first turning? There's still 7-9 years left of the fourth turning.
How do you now the next economic recession / depression won't escalate the situation to be "solved" in 1-7 years? With the already huge debt loads of individuals/states/nations everything is at stake, it will be a time of huge inflation and deflation after that. We all know that bad things are prone to happen in the fourth turning, and the tensions are already high today, even though the economic situation of citizens in USA and EU is decent (except for millenials).
True enough. No one expected Trump to rise from Realty TV to capture the Presidency before it happened. Other low probability events are not out of the question, leaving no guidance on the future resolution of this 4T -- not yet at least.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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10-11-2018, 11:56 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2018, 12:14 PM by pbrower2a.)
(10-11-2018, 11:50 AM)David Horn Wrote: (10-11-2018, 06:29 AM)sbarrera Wrote: In the United States there could be two purges, a Red one and a Blue one, the final result of which will be two different regional legal zones - one for each side of the Culture Wars. This amount to each side "winning" the Culture Wars, and instituting its own new civic order. The two regions could even still be united in one federation - there needn't be a Constitutional reform per se.
We're already there. I'm not sure that it's a stable state, but we definitely have a Red America and a Blue one. In fact, the fault lines are getting firmer, with the clustering of like minded people on both sides. I know I won't see that through to its finish. This seems more suited to the next saeculum than this one.
It won't be stable. "Blue" America will need food, water, and energy from "Red" America, and "Red" America will go nuts without entertainment and enlightenment from "Blue" America. Talented people will flock to America's "Blue" cities from "Red" America, even if the trip is less than fifty miles to so "Blue" a city as Austin, Texas, just for the opportunity to use their education for above-average pay. Urban sophisticates will go to "Blue" America to camp, hike, and even hunt and fish because "Red" America has yet to be urbanized. "Pave paradise, put up a parking lot" describes San Francisco very well.
What will disappear is any trace of whatever anything that one connects to the bad traits of the last 3T that created the Crisis Era.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(10-10-2018, 05:54 AM)Teejay Wrote: Nationalism and Populism are going to become words akin to Fascism and Nazism.
Something like this has already happened, but to different words. Neoliberalism and Neoconservatism are already dirty words in most of the Western World.
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(10-22-2018, 07:22 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: (10-10-2018, 05:54 AM)Teejay Wrote: Nationalism and Populism are going to become words akin to Fascism and Nazism.
Something like this has already happened, but to different words. Neoliberalism and Neoconservatism are already dirty words in most of the Western World.
I agree. Both Neoliberalism and Neoconservatism are utter failures. Only idiots still believe those ideologies even work after all of the clusterfucks we've experienced from both.
---Value Added 
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(10-22-2018, 12:44 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: (10-22-2018, 07:22 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: (10-10-2018, 05:54 AM)Teejay Wrote: Nationalism and Populism are going to become words akin to Fascism and Nazism.
Something like this has already happened, but to different words. Neoliberalism and Neoconservatism are already dirty words in most of the Western World.
I agree. Both Neoliberalism and Neoconservatism are utter failures. Only idiots still believe those ideologies even work after all of the clusterfucks we've experienced from both.
The tendency will emerge anew but use a fresh euphemism for its horrible self.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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10-23-2018, 05:48 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-23-2018, 05:55 AM by Bill the Piper.)
(10-22-2018, 05:35 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The tendency will emerge anew but use a fresh euphemism for its horrible self.
It was not that horrible... Bill Kristol is a reasonable person. So was Irving Cristol.
but I think it won't come back before the new Idealist generation. When they will rebel against millennials, nothing will annoy a dad born in the 1990s than his daughter declaring herself a neocon.
My thread from another forum: (I'm RoseTylerFan there)
https://www.futuretimeline.net/forum/top...ound-2050/
The prophets of 2050 will almost certainly look down on the right-wing populist movements favoured by millennials, on the sort of politics that gave the world Trump, Brexit and the current Polish government. But they will also despise authoritarian progressivism favoured by the SJWs. If this really happens, we can see a revival of an authentic liberal movement. If Western democracy survives, indignation at tyrannical governments in the Third World could bring neoconservatism back to life.
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10-25-2018, 12:24 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2018, 12:25 AM by Teejay.)
(10-23-2018, 05:48 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: (10-22-2018, 05:35 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The tendency will emerge anew but use a fresh euphemism for its horrible self.
It was not that horrible... Bill Kristol is a reasonable person. So was Irving Cristol.
but I think it won't come back before the new Idealist generation. When they will rebel against millennials, nothing will annoy a dad born in the 1990s than his daughter declaring herself a neocon.
My thread from another forum: (I'm RoseTylerFan there)
https://www.futuretimeline.net/forum/top...ound-2050/
The prophets of 2050 will almost certainly look down on the right-wing populist movements favoured by millennials, on the sort of politics that gave the world Trump, Brexit and the current Polish government. But they will also despise authoritarian progressivism favoured by the SJWs. If this really happens, we can see a revival of an authentic liberal movement. If Western democracy survives, indignation at tyrannical governments in the Third World could bring neoconservatism back to life.
I am predicting that the 2020's will an emergence of an "alt-left" which will be social democratic or socialist, advocating green politics and alter-globalization. The second global economic crisis will bring an economic downturn so bad that the right-wing populists are going to lose a lot of their appeal.
I follow European politics and in Western Europe Millennial's will strongly support "alt-left" parties and their leaders. For example; the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn is polling like 60-70% among Millennials!, not to mention they voted 75% for Remain in the Brexit referendum!. Indeed the Millennial's will get their revenge by forcing through activism a popular vote on the nature of Brexit. Right now in Britain there is a massive campaign for a 'people's vote' driven no doubt by the Millennial's who are angry that older generations voted for Brexit, while they voted for Remain. British Millennial's especially those on the left do have a bit of an authoritarian streak which is a little worrying and are comfortable with Jeremy Corbyn's authoritarianism.
This is not limited to Britain either, in the French Presidential Election in 2017, the far-left candidate jean Luc-Melenchon won 30% of the Millennial vote (as opposed to just under 20% of the voters as a whole). Marnie Le-Pen polled no better among Millennial's than she did among the voters as a whole.
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I don't know why Corbin and others on the left would be considered "authoritarian." Remain was the right course for Britain, and the younger people knew it.
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(10-23-2018, 05:48 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: (10-22-2018, 05:35 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The tendency will emerge anew but use a fresh euphemism for its horrible self.
It was not that horrible... Bill Kristol is a reasonable person. So was Irving Cristol.
but I think it won't come back before the new Idealist generation. When they will rebel against millennials, nothing will annoy a dad born in the 1990s than his daughter declaring herself a neocon.
My thread from another forum: (I'm RoseTylerFan there)
https://www.futuretimeline.net/forum/top...ound-2050/
The prophets of 2050 will almost certainly look down on the right-wing populist movements favoured by millennials, on the sort of politics that gave the world Trump, Brexit and the current Polish government. But they will also despise authoritarian progressivism favoured by the SJWs. If this really happens, we can see a revival of an authentic liberal movement. If Western democracy survives, indignation at tyrannical governments in the Third World could bring neoconservatism back to life.
I agree with those who say neo-con and neo-lib are both utter failures. There's no reason for them to come back to life.
The millennials don't favor right-wing "populism" (which is not populism). They favor the opposite. So that prediction is based on an incorrect assumption. The millennials oppose Brexit and other right wing alt-right nationalism favored by older generations in Europe and America today.
There is no "authoritarian progressivism." Progressivism and social justice are liberal and create genuine freedom. Only neo-liberals think that pro-business policies are policies of "freedom," and that opposing oligarchy is "authoritarian."
If indignation of tyrannical governments rises in the third world against western imperialism, then perhaps neo-cons could rise in The West among those who want to maintain it. But since neo-cons are out of date, so is western imperialism, which is what it is.
A proper balance between values and openness to different needs and people is always needed. Too much fanaticism of any kind is not very healthy in the long run. The needs for local sovereignty and the need for worldwide and regional solutions and connections needs to be balanced; the need for freedom of enterprise and the need for regulation and public interest needs to be balanced. The need for collective security and the need for peaceful behavior among peoples needs to be balanced.
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10-25-2018, 03:57 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2018, 04:02 AM by Teejay.)
(10-25-2018, 01:19 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I don't know why Corbin and others on the left would be considered "authoritarian." Remain was the right course for Britain, and the younger people knew it.
I just criticize Corbyn, not his supporters who have been swept up into this cult he has developed. Many of them are Millennials who are a bit naive and prone to authoritarianism I am afraid. Every generational archetype has it's dark side and that I have mentioned is the dark side of the Hero archetype.
I don't think Brexit was good for Britain, however not to say the Brexiters did not have valid concerns. Because the un-elected European commission ultimately makes all the decisions not it's parliament which is directly elected. Also what is notable at among the arguments for Brexit, was one that Britain would be freer to trade with the rest of the world outside the European Union than if it remained it in, that really struck me out.
I admit, that I am a bit unusual that I would support the Australian Greens in Australia, Democratic Party in America and the Conservatives (currently) in Britain. Because being principled and morally consistent is something I have aimed to be for a long time. It something of the Prophet archetypes that this Nomad has decided to incorporate into his personality.
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