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6 Turnings
#21
(03-11-2019, 02:02 PM)Jessquo Wrote:
(03-11-2019, 01:30 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: I interpret the generational cycle as a consequence of the norms of the lifetime of human development from birth to either death or senescence (the latter two having much the same role in making people finally and permanently irrelevant except for fossil influence). To be sure, someone like Vincent van Gogh or George Gershwin (both of whom died rather young) could influence the creative activities of people beyond even a normal lifespan, but they could not participate.

The ages to which people not only live but have relevance because they have cohorts of constituency have gone from sixty-something to eighty-something. An additional twenty years of relevance to a generation means that it can have influence longer than it once did. Such ensures that there will be four active adult generations in place instead of three. So contrast 1939 to 2019:

Progressive 80-96  Silent 77-93
Missionary 57-79    Boom 59-78
Lost  40-56       Thirteenth 38-56    
GI  15-39 Millennial ? - 37

These generations are relatively well aligned 80 years later, but you will clearly notice that the Progressive Generation was almost completely gone as an influence by the late 1930s. The second-most-powerful person in American politics, the Speaker of the House, is part of the Silent generation, and two people who have some significant chance of becoming the 46th President (Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders) are at the late end of the Silent generation.

Something else: mass media seek teenagers as a market for their culture, and such may thrust youth into adult identity and consciousness earlier than was once so. The voting age has gone from 21 to 18, and it is imaginable that that could make a huge difference in the 2020 Presidential and other elections. Kids in their late teens are at least as sophisticated and learned as any such generation ever. With their computers and the Internet they can get answers to questions to which others had no easy answers.

The 57-year gap between the last GI's and the first Millennial adults was between 18-year-old adults and 75-year-old adults in 2000 and is now between 37-year-old adults and 95-year-old adults in 2019. In the meantime, the civic component of American life has gone from being moderately-to-extremely old to dominating the young-adult phase of life. Unlike the Lost, the GI's were going to resist being carted off in the Big Yellow Taxi (Joni Mitchell)* to the nursing home to be largely forgotten; such is so with the Silent and will soon be so with Boomers. The Civic component of public life did not go into hiatus in the 1990s even if it weakened as GI's started aging into oblivion; Millennial youth became adults as such happened.    

Yes, yes, yes: Donald Trump exemplifies what is worst in an Idealist generation: fanaticism, arrogance, selfishness, and ruthless. He is almost as objectionable as those Transcendental planters who countered the Abolitionist movement with the insistence that people not slave-owners recognize slavery as the best thing that ever happened to Africans. Yes -- the exploiters expected others to see them as benefactors of those that they exploited, repressed, and brutalized. I expect Americans to repudiate Donald Trump -- or (the worst way the Crisis of 2020 can go for America) that the rest of the world can repudiate the America that gives in to a horrible leader.

The best Boomers may be the ones who got sidelined in the Age of Greed. There is nothing Lincolnesque or Churchillian about Donald Trump.  


*Don't it always seem to go/That you don't know what you've got 'til it's gone?Pave paradise... put up a parking lot!
This is a very interesting comment but I'm not sure how its relevant to my initial post. Who do you think will be the grey champion during this crisis period? Do you think the resurgency will begin during the 2020 election period? Remember according to S&H during a crisis there is a catalyst (last time this was the Wall Street crash - I would argue that this time around it was the Trump election), then a resurgency in which we rely behind a new leader or cause (last time this was FDR and the New Deal), then a climax (Last time WW2 - D-day) and finally there is the resolution. This crisis appears to have greater similarity to the 1854 - 1865 crisis than to the 1929 - 1945 crisis. I also predict that this crisis will be shorter than average; probably about 12 years (more similar to the 11 year Civil War crisis than to the 16 year Depression / WW2 crisis).

Thanks for your thoughts. Contributions from new posters are appreciated, even if people may disagree.

I like the idea that there are many grey champions, not just one. I thought back in 1997 that Hillary might be one; that didn't quite work out Smile

2008 works quite well as the neo-crash that opened the 4T, much like the last crash did. The Trump election just confirms our crisis condition. People being deceived by demagogues and nationalist racists happened in the last 4T too, and Trump is Mussolini reincarnate, and this also resembles the Dixie hotheads.

I agree very much that this crisis resembles the 1854-1865 crisis more than 1929-1945. I even extend it back a few years before 1854.

I predict this crisis will be longer than average, and the slower rate of change today and longer-lived generations means the saeculum will run it's full 84 archetypal length. Look for the climax in the mid 2020s. Count on it.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#22
(03-11-2019, 02:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Thanks for your thoughts. Contributions from new posters are appreciated, even if people may disagree.

I like the idea that there are many grey champions, not just one. I thought back in 1997 that Hillary might be one; that didn't quite work out Smile

2008 works quite well as the neo-crash that opened the 4T, much like the last crash did. The Trump election just confirms our crisis condition. People being deceived by demagogues and nationalist racists happened in the last 4T too, and Trump is Mussolini reincarnate, and this also resembles the Dixie hotheads.

I agree very much that this crisis resembles the 1854-1865 crisis more than 1929-1945. I even extend it back a few years before 1854.

I predict this crisis will be longer than average, and the slower rate of change today and longer-lived generations means the saeculum will run it's full 84 archetypal length. Look for the climax in the mid 2020s. Count on it

Our views are similar. I also think that the climax will occur around the mid-2020s and the resolution around 2028. However, I believe that's only a 12-year crisis because according to my 6 turning cycle the crisis did not begin until 2016. The GFC was nowhere near as significant as the 1929 Crash and Great Depression, the 1854 Kansas-Nebraska Act, the Boston Tea Party, the Glorious Revolution, the extraordinarily high death rate during the settlement period or the desolation of the monasteries. The GFC is similar to the Depression of 1920-21 in significance. That event also occurred during an unravelling, not a crisis.
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#23
(03-11-2019, 04:15 PM)Jessquo Wrote:
(03-11-2019, 02:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Thanks for your thoughts. Contributions from new posters are appreciated, even if people may disagree.

I like the idea that there are many grey champions, not just one. I thought back in 1997 that Hillary might be one; that didn't quite work out Smile

2008 works quite well as the neo-crash that opened the 4T, much like the last crash did. The Trump election just confirms our crisis condition. People being deceived by demagogues and nationalist racists happened in the last 4T too, and Trump is Mussolini reincarnate, and this also resembles the Dixie hotheads.

I agree very much that this crisis resembles the 1854-1865 crisis more than 1929-1945. I even extend it back a few years before 1854.

I predict this crisis will be longer than average, and the slower rate of change today and longer-lived generations means the saeculum will run it's full 84 archetypal length. Look for the climax in the mid 2020s. Count on it

Our views are similar. I also think that the climax will occur around the mid-2020s and the resolution around 2028. However, I believe that's only a 12-year crisis because according to my 6 turning cycle the crisis did not begin until 2016. The GFC was nowhere near as significant as the 1929 Crash and Great Depression, the 1854 Kansas-Nebraska Act, the Boston Tea Party, the Glorious Revolution, the extraordinarily high death rate during the settlement period or the desolation of the monasteries. The GFC is similar to the Depression of 1920-21 in significance. That event also occurred during an unravelling, not a crisis.

It's a plausible view. The alternative view is that the economy didn't really recover from the 2008 crash very much, and its affects abroad helped spur the Arab Spring revolts and civil wars and revolutions worldwide, which brought the rise of right wing, authoritarian and nationalist trends in Europe and Britain in reply, and the similar rise of Trump in the USA. 

Our 4T is a cold civil war, whose start preceded the great recession, but the rise of the Tea Party after 2009 made it worse and paralyzed congress and statehouses in deadlock for a decade, and meanwhile climate change has continued to get worse too, and helped fuel the revolt, with 2010 as the time of the great oil spill and 2008 the rise of gas prices that helped trigger the recession. And the gun violence crisis is growing too and becoming unacceptable to the millions who rose up against it in the Spring of 2018, and this also continues to fuel the cold civil war. The debt also got worse under Obama for a while, thanks to the recession, and now again under Trump, thanks to his policies.

I imagine GFC stands for the Great Financial Crisis; but 2008 was more than that and generally is known as the start of the Great Recession.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#24
(03-11-2019, 04:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(03-11-2019, 04:15 PM)Jessquo Wrote:
(03-11-2019, 02:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Thanks for your thoughts. Contributions from new posters are appreciated, even if people may disagree.

I like the idea that there are many grey champions, not just one. I thought back in 1997 that Hillary might be one; that didn't quite work out Smile

2008 works quite well as the neo-crash that opened the 4T, much like the last crash did. The Trump election just confirms our crisis condition. People being deceived by demagogues and nationalist racists happened in the last 4T too, and Trump is Mussolini reincarnate, and this also resembles the Dixie hotheads.

I agree very much that this crisis resembles the 1854-1865 crisis more than 1929-1945. I even extend it back a few years before 1854.

I predict this crisis will be longer than average, and the slower rate of change today and longer-lived generations means the saeculum will run it's full 84 archetypal length. Look for the climax in the mid 2020s. Count on it

Our views are similar. I also think that the climax will occur around the mid-2020s and the resolution around 2028. However, I believe that's only a 12-year crisis because according to my 6 turning cycle the crisis did not begin until 2016. The GFC was nowhere near as significant as the 1929 Crash and Great Depression, the 1854 Kansas-Nebraska Act, the Boston Tea Party, the Glorious Revolution, the extraordinarily high death rate during the settlement period or the desolation of the monasteries. The GFC is similar to the Depression of 1920-21 in significance. That event also occurred during an unravelling, not a crisis.

It's a plausible view. The alternative view is that the economy didn't really recover from the 2008 crash very much, and its affects abroad helped spur the Arab Spring revolts and civil wars and revolutions worldwide, which brought the rise of right wing, authoritarian and nationalist trends in Europe and Britain in reply, and the similar rise of Trump in the USA. 

Our 4T is a cold civil war, whose start preceded the great recession, but the rise of the Tea Party after 2009 made it worse and paralyzed congress and statehouses in deadlock for a decade, and meanwhile climate change has continued to get worse too, and helped fuel the revolt, with 2010 as the time of the great oil spill and 2008 the rise of gas prices that helped trigger the recession. And the gun violence crisis is growing too and becoming unacceptable to the millions who rose up against it in the Spring of 2018, and this also continues to fuel the cold civil war. The debt also got worse under Obama for a while, thanks to the recession, and now again under Trump, thanks to his policies.

I imagine GFC stands for the Great Financial Crisis; but 2008 was more than that and generally is known as the start of the Great Recession.
This is not an alternative view. I agree with most of this comment. The GFC and Geat Recession helped trigger the Trump election which has in turn exacerbated political polarisation in what was already a politically polarised society. That does not mean that the Crisis began in 2008. It just means that the events of the unravelling contributed to the events of the crisis. That's always the how it happens. WW1 in the unravelling contributed to WW2 in the Crisis. The rampant risk taking and extreme inequality of the 1920s contributed to the Depression of the 1930s. Essentially the beginning of the unravelling is what I imagine you deem to be the beginning of the crisis. The difference is I split these periods up by severity. The excesses of the Mission period always contributes to the beginning of the unravelling. The Neoliberal, globalisation and deregulation ideology of the 80s and 90s mission caused an unravelling backlash in the form of Islamic terrorism, economic recentment, political polarisation and financial instability.
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#25
Mission is a strange name for the neo-liberal era; it was certainly fanatical, but entirely negative and regressive; very little of it was new.

It's often hard to tell an unravelling from an early crisis. As I see it, we are still 1850s redux and haven't reached the equivalent of 1860-61 yet. S&H called the 1850s an unravelling, and the 2010s as a crisis, but either one could be called either. Similarly, was 1763-1773 a crisis, or late unravelling? In any case, all these periods are similar.

The 1920s, although a 3T decade, were not a decade of this type, though; things seemed to be going great. The 1930s are another example of this early crisis or late unravelling phase, especially in the way events were leading up to the war.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#26
(03-11-2019, 05:40 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The 1920s, although a 3T decade, were not a decade of this type, though; things seemed to be going great. The 1930s are another example of this early crisis or late unravelling phase, especially in the way events were leading up to the war.

I think you'll find that the 1920s was period of growing political extremism both right and left wing. Anarchists, Communists and Fascists were all more prevalent during this time.
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#27
I have realised that using the name Missionary for the cynic archetype of the Great powers saeculum was confusing. I have changed the generational names for that saeculum. I think this is an improvement. Thankyou for pointing this out.


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.docx   6 turnings perhaps.docx (Size: 52.84 KB / Downloads: 5)
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#28
(03-11-2019, 09:05 PM)Jessquo Wrote: I have realised that using the name Missionary for the cynic archetype of the Great powers saeculum was confusing. I have changed the generational names for that saeculum. I think this is an improvement. Thankyou for pointing this out.

Good. what was the name?
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
#29
(03-11-2019, 06:07 PM)Jessquo Wrote:
(03-11-2019, 05:40 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The 1920s, although a 3T decade, were not a decade of this type, though; things seemed to be going great. The 1930s are another example of this early crisis or late unravelling phase, especially in the way events were leading up to the war.

I think you'll find that the 1920s was period of growing political extremism both right and left wing. Anarchists, Communists and Fascists were all more prevalent during this time.

I know that.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
#30
(03-11-2019, 10:26 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(03-11-2019, 09:05 PM)Jessquo Wrote: I have realised that using the name Missionary for the cynic archetype of the Great powers saeculum was confusing. I have changed the generational names for that saeculum. I think this is an improvement. Thankyou for pointing this out.

Good. what was the name?

I added an attachment to that previous comment. I changed the adaptive archetype from embittered to progressive, the idealist archetype from progressive to missionary and the cynic archetype from missionary to decadent. This actually means that there is now greater consistency between S and H progressive and Missionary birth years and my own. Thank you again for pointing this out.
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#31
(03-11-2019, 05:25 PM)Jessquo Wrote:
(03-11-2019, 04:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(03-11-2019, 04:15 PM)Jessquo Wrote:
(03-11-2019, 02:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Thanks for your thoughts. Contributions from new posters are appreciated, even if people may disagree.

I like the idea that there are many grey champions, not just one. I thought back in 1997 that Hillary might be one; that didn't quite work out Smile

2008 works quite well as the neo-crash that opened the 4T, much like the last crash did. The Trump election just confirms our crisis condition. People being deceived by demagogues and nationalist racists happened in the last 4T too, and Trump is Mussolini reincarnate, and this also resembles the Dixie hotheads.

I agree very much that this crisis resembles the 1854-1865 crisis more than 1929-1945. I even extend it back a few years before 1854.

I predict this crisis will be longer than average, and the slower rate of change today and longer-lived generations means the saeculum will run it's full 84 archetypal length. Look for the climax in the mid 2020s. Count on it

Our views are similar. I also think that the climax will occur around the mid-2020s and the resolution around 2028. However, I believe that's only a 12-year crisis because according to my 6 turning cycle the crisis did not begin until 2016. The GFC was nowhere near as significant as the 1929 Crash and Great Depression, the 1854 Kansas-Nebraska Act, the Boston Tea Party, the Glorious Revolution, the extraordinarily high death rate during the settlement period or the desolation of the monasteries. The GFC is similar to the Depression of 1920-21 in significance. That event also occurred during an unravelling, not a crisis.

It's a plausible view. The alternative view is that the economy didn't really recover from the 2008 crash very much, and its affects abroad helped spur the Arab Spring revolts and civil wars and revolutions worldwide, which brought the rise of right wing, authoritarian and nationalist trends in Europe and Britain in reply, and the similar rise of Trump in the USA. 

Our 4T is a cold civil war, whose start preceded the great recession, but the rise of the Tea Party after 2009 made it worse and paralyzed congress and statehouses in deadlock for a decade, and meanwhile climate change has continued to get worse too, and helped fuel the revolt, with 2010 as the time of the great oil spill and 2008 the rise of gas prices that helped trigger the recession. And the gun violence crisis is growing too and becoming unacceptable to the millions who rose up against it in the Spring of 2018, and this also continues to fuel the cold civil war. The debt also got worse under Obama for a while, thanks to the recession, and now again under Trump, thanks to his policies.

I imagine GFC stands for the Great Financial Crisis; but 2008 was more than that and generally is known as the start of the Great Recession.
This is not an alternative view. I agree with most of this comment. The GFC and Geat Recession helped trigger the Trump election which has in turn exacerbated political polarisation in what was already a politically polarised society. That does not mean that the Crisis began in 2008. It just means that the events of the unravelling contributed to the events of the crisis. That's always the how it happens. WW1 in the unravelling contributed to WW2 in the Crisis. The rampant risk taking and extreme inequality of the 1920s contributed to the Depression of the 1930s. Essentially the beginning of the unravelling is what I imagine you deem to be the beginning of the crisis. The difference is I split these periods up by severity. The excesses of the Mission period always contributes to the beginning of the unravelling. The Neoliberal, globalisation and deregulation ideology of the 80s and 90s mission caused an unravelling backlash in the form of Islamic terrorism, economic recentment, political polarisation and financial instability.

Having read Generations back in 1989, I came to recognize the preliminary situation before the Crisis Era. If the start of the recovery from the dangerous time is the Regeneracy, then the verbal opposite is either a breakdown or a degeneracy.

So imagine a society in which the burlesque shows (or their temporal equivalent) become increasingly raunchy, a celebrity circus becomes a surrogate for taste and moral authority, business practices degrade because people think of quick profits and ignore the long term. economic inequality and class privilege become objects of admiration instead of contempt, and intellectual achievement becomes an object of ridicule. Politics coarsens and becomes increasingly corrupt and irresponsible. Delights of the flesh become sacred and moral restraint becomes old-hat.

Corruption, inequality, and depravity all either create, expose, or intensify the rot that can destroy the alleged structure of society. Corruption may enrich a few, but it wastes economic resources. Inequality never creates a social concord. Depravity entices for a while and then gets boring or offers no satisfying sequel to its devotees.  People look to speculation for profit instead of building small-scale businesses that might really pay off in a decade or two after dedicated, hard work; speculation is far easier. 'Easy money', often the result of pushing leverage to a preposterous extreme, becomes attractive while honest toil is for suckers.

Then it all collapses. Speculation fails as economic bubbles burst. Inequality that people could trivialize because people were making easy money begins to hurt. Raunch becomes a bore. The politicians so lauded in the latter part of the 3T suddenly have no solutions. Stores of wealth (sacrilege expressions such as "The Good Lord isn't making more real estate" that people accept as Gospel truth suddenly showing themselves empty) suddenly lose most of their value. Despair and cynicism emerge as defaults when economic failure becomes the new norm. Celebrity circuses lose their appeal, and a culture of mindless entertainment becomes a bore.

The conservative solution is to return to the market as the arbiter of success and failure, fostering mom-and-pop businesses to fill niches that the corporate dinosaurs left behind when everything collapsed. The liberal solution is to alleviate extreme need. So long as people recognize the need to commit to low-yield, long-term investments that require one to build a customer base. the conservative and liberal solutions can intertwine well. It may surprise people that the best time ever in America to start a small business was the Great Depression. Labor, real estate, raw materials, and merchandise were cheap. Taxing authorities could not exact much. Businesses had to rely upon service and the reputation for such instead of spending on advertising for the simple reason that markets were small. Customer loyalty was high in part because an employee with an extended family knew the need to attract the most accessible people (the kinship network) as customers.

Do things go back to that? Maybe. A 4T is not the sort of time in which an Enron or Madoff scam is possible. There is no easy money. Government can spend big on relief efforts and the restoration (or improvement!) of infrastructure, but that must have an obvious payoff. There's nothing glamorous about starting a diner that offers cheap, bland fare in which Mom and Pop open for breakfast, kids come home from school to prepare food and do dishes in time for the dinner customers, and the business closes just around bedtime for small children. That may be all that is available when the corporate giants left over from better times aren't hiring.

If that isn't good enough for you, then contemplate the horror of fascism, which has nothing to offer but suffering and death after it destroys your soul as it destroys scapegoats. Or Bolshevism which gives you nothing but the barest needs (from each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs -- heck, a plantation owner got from his field hands that he literally owned and made sure that his slaves did not starve if they worked as demanded and never demanded human dignity) while a bureaucratic elite exploits the masses as severely as is possible even if the State owns everything and decides everything. Or maybe some religious hierarchy that saves your soul by destroying such freedom as you thought God-given.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#32
(03-12-2019, 05:35 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Do things go back to that? Maybe. A 4T is not the sort of time in which an Enron or Madoff scam is possible. There is no easy money. Government can spend big on relief efforts and the restoration (or improvement!) of infrastructure, but that must have an obvious payoff. There's nothing glamorous about starting a diner that offers cheap, bland fare in which Mom and Pop open for breakfast, kids come home from school to prepare food and do dishes in time for the dinner customers, and the business closes just around bedtime for small children. That may be all that is available when the corporate giants left over from better times aren't hiring.

If that isn't good enough for you, then contemplate the horror of fascism, which has nothing to offer but suffering and death after it destroys your soul as it destroys scapegoats. Or Bolshevism which gives you nothing but the barest needs (from each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs -- heck, a plantation owner got from his field hands that he literally owned and made sure that his slaves did not starve if they worked as demanded and never demanded human dignity) while a bureaucratic elite exploits the masses as severely as is possible even if the State owns everything and decides everything. Or maybe some religious hierarchy that saves your soul by destroying such freedom as you thought God-given.

Or maybe we could just turn to centrist liberalism, raising positive liberty by emphasising the values of autonomy and empowerment. See Attachment


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.pptx   Ideology triangle - Copy.pptx (Size: 131.76 KB / Downloads: 3)
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#33
(03-11-2019, 01:50 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The late Millennials (circa 1995-2003) are very typical millennials; no adjustments needed. And they call themselves millennials. I like the idea of using one letter per generation; that's mainstream. People here used Gen Y to mean the Xer/Millennial cusp for a while, but no-one else did. Everywhere else, Gen Y = millennials. Gen Z is the new adaptive generation, circa 2004-2024.

This is probably the best, switching to Greek letters marks the new saeculum.

BTW, Orion's Arm claim that "Information Age" begun in 2000 makes no sense. It's better to call the millennial saeculum Information Age (TV went mainstream during the 1T, it's information too!), and the new cycle will probably be Interplanetary Age.

@Jessquo, I like the triangle (Liberty/Equality/Hierarchy), but what about the core value of the "hard right" being Righteousness?
There are subtypes within any of three basic political orientations: Liberals can be divided into countercultural and capitalist ones, depending on the definition of liberty (self-actualisation vs non-coercion). Among Rightists, there is a distinction between militaristic nationalists and theocratic traditionalists, because they value different kinds of righteousness.
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#34
(03-11-2019, 01:42 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think there are 6 saecula within a civilization cycle, but not 6 turnings within a saeculum. On rare occasions an adjustment may be needed; just like a leap year happens. As far as this saeculum is concerned, we are right on schedule and things are happening as predicted, both generationally and cosmically speaking.

Have you summarized anywhere why you think there are 6 saecula on the civilization cycle?  This would mean our current saecula is the downturn one which seems right...
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#35
(03-18-2019, 01:10 PM)jleagans Wrote:
(03-11-2019, 01:42 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think there are 6 saecula within a civilization cycle, but not 6 turnings within a saeculum. On rare occasions an adjustment may be needed; just like a leap year happens. As far as this saeculum is concerned, we are right on schedule and things are happening as predicted, both generationally and cosmically speaking.

Have you summarized anywhere why you think there are 6 saecula on the civilization cycle?  This would mean our current saecula is the downturn one which seems right...

No, I didn't think it means that; quite the opposite. We are only 120 years into the latest civilization cycle.

The feelings and impressions that we are currently in a downturning mode are the result of being in a fourth turning now, and because most young people today rejected or don't remember the second turning or the first.

But in a sense, that might be correct, in that we are in the second saeculum since the latest cycle of civilization began; at least in the sense of the second set of 84 years.

The civilization cycle being just under 500 years, which is evident in examining history and the rise and fall of major civilizations, 6 seacula fit well into it; at least approximately.

The saeculum calendar coincides with the cycles of the outer three planets, which are in a 1-2-3 resonance. So there are three Uranus cycles within a Pluto cycle, and two within a Neptune cycle. Only after 6 cycles of Uranus do all three planets return to about the same place and are all starting their new cycles at the same time.

This is my summary of the civilization cycle.
http://philosopherswheel.com/fortunes.htm
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#36
(03-11-2019, 01:30 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: These generations are relatively well aligned 80 years later, but you will clearly notice that the Progressive Generation was almost completely gone as an influence by the late 1930s. The second-most-powerful person in American politics, the Speaker of the House, is part of the Silent generation, and two people who have some significant chance of becoming the 46th President (Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders) are at the late end of the Silent generation.

What I say (see the threads in my sig).

(03-11-2019, 01:30 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: There is nothing Lincolnesque or Churchillian about Donald Trump.
True. But remember that Harding, Coolidge and Hoover were Missionaries just as FDR. If S&H had drawn the border between Missionaries and Lost one year earlier, FDR would be in the same cohort as Truman and Eisenhower.

(03-12-2019, 08:26 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: BTW, Orion's Arm claim that "Information Age" begun in 2000 makes no sense. It's better to call the millennial saeculum Information Age (TV went mainstream during the 1T, it's information too!)

So are books. And oral tales. And these used to have a better signal to noise ratio.
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#37
(03-12-2019, 08:26 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:
(03-11-2019, 01:50 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The late Millennials (circa 1995-2003) are very typical millennials; no adjustments needed. And they call themselves millennials. I like the idea of using one letter per generation; that's mainstream. People here used Gen Y to mean the Xer/Millennial cusp for a while, but no-one else did. Everywhere else, Gen Y = millennials. Gen Z is the new adaptive generation, circa 2004-2024.

This is probably the best, switching to Greek letters marks the new saeculum.

BTW, Orion's Arm claim that "Information Age" begun in 2000 makes no sense. It's better to call the millennial saeculum Information Age (TV went mainstream during the 1T, it's information too!), and the new cycle will probably be Interplanetary Age.

@Jessquo, I like the triangle (Liberty/Equality/Hierarchy), but what about the core value of the "hard right" being Righteousness?
There are subtypes within any of three basic political orientations: Liberals can be divided into countercultural and capitalist ones, depending on the definition of liberty (self-actualisation vs non-coercion). Among Rightists, there is a distinction between militaristic nationalists and theocratic traditionalists, because they value different kinds of righteousness.

One scary scenario -- if Trump defines the end of the 4T and the start of the 1T  by establishing a new plutocratic, anti-intellectual, anti-environmental order, then the focus of the next 4T will almost certainly be the havoc that global warming creates through inundation of the great cities, and even worse, productive farmlands, in coastal plains -- and perhaps the poleward shift of climate belts.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#38
(03-23-2019, 08:43 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:
(03-12-2019, 08:26 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: BTW, Orion's Arm claim that "Information Age" begun in 2000 makes no sense. It's better to call the millennial saeculum Information Age (TV went mainstream during the 1T, it's information too!)

So are books. And oral tales. And these used to have a better signal to noise ratio.

Indeed. The Orions' term seems quite silly, Electronic Age would be a better name. In the same convention, Great Power saeculum can be called Industrialization Age.
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