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What do you believe is the actual length of a saeculum?
#21
(08-11-2019, 01:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(08-11-2019, 08:12 AM)Ghost Wrote: A saeculum starting in 1940 won't work because that's when WWII was going on.

1940-1945: 4T
1945-1963: 1T
1963-1980: 2T
1980-2008: 3T
2008-2030: 4T again

In that example I am using John Xenakis's crisis war concept in which saecula are based on crisis wars. WW II is a crisis war. I am assuming that another one starts around 2030. Here I am dating the crisis from beginning of one Crisis War to beginning of the next Crisis War. So your scheme is appropriate except for the 2008-2030 turning which would NOT be a Crisis because the crisis war doesn't begin until 2030.

John still considers the fourth turning to end with the end of the crisis war, not to begin with the beginning of the crisis war.  In the case of a 2030-2035 crisis war, the crisis period could extend from 2008-2035.  The issue with the dates would be that the fourth turning ending in 1945 would have begun earlier, probably in 1929.
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#22
(08-12-2019, 10:04 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(08-11-2019, 01:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(08-11-2019, 08:12 AM)Ghost Wrote: A saeculum starting in 1940 won't work because that's when WWII was going on.

1940-1945: 4T
1945-1963: 1T
1963-1980: 2T
1980-2008: 3T
2008-2030: 4T again

In that example I am using John Xenakis's crisis war concept in which saecula are based on crisis wars. WW II is a crisis war. I am assuming that another one starts around 2030. Here I am dating the crisis from beginning of one Crisis War to beginning of the next Crisis War. So your scheme is appropriate except for the 2008-2030 turning which would NOT be a Crisis because the crisis war doesn't begin until 2030.

John still considers the fourth turning to end with the end of the crisis war, not to begin with the beginning of the crisis war.  In the case of a 2030-2035 crisis war, the crisis period could extend from 2008-2035.  The issue with the dates would be that the fourth turning ending in 1945 would have begun earlier, probably in 1929.
Yes I know. S&H considers the saeculum to end at the end of the 4T. But one can, in principle,  date saeculae (i.e periods containing 1 each of all types of turning) using other turning dates as well.  

My understanding of GD is that the crisis war is the key.  There is no crisis without the crisis war, so if we had a crisis war starting in 2030, the crisis would start in 2030. If the GWOT were considered a crisis war then the crisis would start in 2001 and continue until the Patriot Act, the AUMF and other enabling legislation is repealed, and so on.
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