Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Peter Turchin: Entering the Age of Instability after Trump
#1
http://linkis.com/evonomics.com/yEWV1


Quote:Cliodynamics is a new “transdisciplinary discipline” that treats history as just another science. Ten years ago I started applying its tools to the society I live in: the United States. What I discovered alarmed me.

My research showed that about 40 seemingly disparate (but, according to cliodynamics, related) social indicators experienced turning points during the 1970s. Historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of political turmoil. My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s (see Political Instability May be a Contributor in the Coming Decade...



http://linkis.com/evonomics.com/yEWV1
Reply
#2
My indicator jives with Peter's indicators!
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
#3
(11-19-2016, 02:00 PM)Dan Wrote: http://linkis.com/evonomics.com/yEWV1


Quote:Cliodynamics is a new “transdisciplinary discipline” that treats history as just another science. Ten years ago I started applying its tools to the society I live in: the United States. What I discovered alarmed me.

My research showed that about 40 seemingly disparate (but, according to cliodynamics, related) social indicators experienced turning points during the 1970s. Historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of political turmoil. My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s (see Political Instability May be a Contributor in the Coming Decade...



http://linkis.com/evonomics.com/yEWV1

Seems like Turchin is still a newbie to the oracle business.  Rule #1 of the business is:  if your prediction is actually correct, there is nothing you can do to change it.
Reply
#4
A major war is likely to break out in the 2020s somewhere around the globe, if not before. However, the US will not see any war until 2022-2024 at least. The 2020s will be a time of great change, because the Millennials are finally able to get their grasp within society and dictate how things run. The 2020 election will be crazy as well. There will be a big surge among Democrats to fight against Trump and maybe give us their own populist candidate. As the Silents die out and get replaced by the Boomers, things will continue to intensify. It won't be until the Boomers die out in large numbers and get replaced by the Xers that things will settle down.
Reply
#5
Bad times promote bad solutions like fascism, Marxism-Leninism, revivalist fundamentalism, and systemic racism. It should hardly surprise us that the parts of America in which economic distress is most severe have been the homes of sundry KKK movements.

Nobody wants to be a loser, but severe inequality makes far more people losers -- people struggling just to survive despite competence within a productive economy.

When I was a child I was told "Don't fear technology, for it will create more jobs than it takes." Anyone with the capacity to do trade school or college would have opportunities at jobs paying better than manually entering transactions onto a pegboard ledger or making repetitive calculations. The technology came, but the jobs disappeared.

To be sure we were all told, "to get a good job get a good education", which was basically "don't drop out of school". Unskilled workers, typically high-school dropouts, would be out in the cold. Technology would bring more opportunity and make life better for all but the dullest of dullards, just as in the Gilded Age. Tough luck dullards -- just get your lazy derrieres on welfare, and try to find some meaning in life.

But something got in the way -- the income from augmented production did not trickle down as pay for even the knowledge-based workers who were to prevail in the new, glorious age. Knowledge workers eventually competed for fewer jobs, and even at times the 'dumbest' of jobs, the ones that used to be relegated largely to dullards. Economic elites took all the net gain.

Instead of knowledge-based and manual (or low-skilled) workers joining in solidarity against the economic elites that have exploited everyone, the elites have turned the middle class and the working class against each other in economic competition in a drive to the bottom for wages and treatment. Donald trump is not the cause; he is the symptom.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
#6
(11-19-2016, 05:43 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(11-18-2016, 08:33 PM)disasterzone Wrote:
(11-18-2016, 12:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I don't understand this thread title. Most assume the 4T started in 2008, so we are 8 years in. The nominal length for turnings is 22 years and the last one lasted 24, so lets use 22. This forecasts the start of the 1T around 2030. Isn't a little early to be talking about the 1T?

The last 4T lasted 16 years and so could this one. This one might end early because Trump is a loose cannon willing to use nukes

According to the timeclock I use, the last 4T started a bit late, and ended early because Hitler shortened the war with his lousy strategy. However, given that contingency that you point out, it could end more quickly; in which case the "1T" will be one in which the living may very well envy the dead.

(11-20-2016, 06:08 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Bad times promote bad solutions like fascism, Marxism-Leninism, revivalist fundamentalism, and systemic racism. It should hardly surprise us that the parts of America in which economic distress is most severe have been the homes of sundry KKK movements.

Nobody wants to be a loser, but severe inequality makes far more people losers -- people struggling just to survive despite competence within a productive economy.

When I was a child I was told "Don't fear technology, for it will create more jobs than it takes." Anyone with the capacity to do trade school or college would have opportunities at jobs paying better than manually entering transactions onto a pegboard ledger or making repetitive calculations. The technology came, but the jobs disappeared.

To be sure we were all told, "to get a good job get a good education", which was basically "don't drop out of school". Unskilled workers, typically high-school dropouts, would be out in the cold. Technology would bring more opportunity and make life better for all but the dullest of dullards, just as in the Gilded Age. Tough luck dullards -- just get your lazy derrieres on welfare, and try to find some meaning in life.

But something got in the way -- the income from augmented production did not trickle down as pay for even the knowledge-based workers who were to prevail in the new, glorious age. Knowledge workers eventually competed for fewer jobs, and even at times the 'dumbest' of jobs, the ones that used to be relegated largely to dullards. Economic elites took all the net gain.

Instead of knowledge-based and manual (or low-skilled) workers joining in solidarity against the economic elites that have exploited everyone, the elites have turned the middle class and the working class against each other in economic competition in a drive to the bottom for wages and treatment. Donald trump is not the cause; he is the symptom.

Hate to say this but sometimes the wrong side wins in the 4T. The 1T is about creating order and establishment. It doesn't have to be a good order or a good establishment.
Reply
#7
(11-20-2016, 06:08 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: But something got in the way -- the income from augmented production did not trickle down as pay for even the knowledge-based workers who were to prevail in the new, glorious age. Knowledge workers eventually competed for fewer jobs, and even at times the 'dumbest' of jobs, the ones that used to be relegated largely to dullards. Economic elites took all the net gain.

Instead of knowledge-based and manual (or low-skilled) workers joining in solidarity against the economic elites that have exploited everyone, the elites have turned the middle class and the working class against each other in economic competition in a drive to the bottom for wages and treatment. Donald trump is not the cause; he is the symptom.

As a knowledge worker, I'd say we did well until about the turn of the millenium, at which point the business became highly cyclical, with the booms spaced farther and farther apart and the busts lasting longer.  That was also about when our wages started to be dragged down by immigration, as had happened to the working class a decade or two earlier.
Reply
#8
We could end up with a new feudalism in which life is sheer Hell for all but about 5% of the population, with the upper 1% living in opulent indulgence.

In some ways the modern feudalism will be worse because the feudalism of medieval times had holes that contemporary technology closes rigidly, and brutally shut.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
#9
Warren Dew Wrote:As a knowledge worker, I'd say we did well until about the turn of the millenium, at which point the business became highly cyclical, with the booms spaced farther and farther apart and the busts lasting longer.
This is true.  Since 1960 business cycles have been longer than they were before.  A wrote an article on business cycles 14 years ago, where I characterized different scales of cycle length.  Between 1885 and 1960 business cycles were largely Kitchen cycles of about 40-48 months in length, which are believed to have reflected inventory cycles.  Before 1885, business cycles were longer.  The earliest work of which I am aware on business cycles was that of Clement Juglar (1862) who described the “Juglar cycle” of 7-11 years. I believe modern business cycles are Juglar cycles.  Juglar cycles were driven by investment cycles.  Before the early 1990’s, the investment driver was business investment, which is sensitive to interest rates.  Cycles ended when the economy “heated up” creating inflationary pressures, which brought monetary crises/interest rate hikes (e.g. 1970, 1981, 1990) or supply shocks (1973, maybe 1990) that induced recession. Since then the investment driver has shifted to financial investment bubbles, in stocks (2001, now) or real estate (2007).  Cycle length still seems to be what Juglar first observed 150 years ago, 7-11 years.  This month the cycle turns 9, so we are in the middle of this range.
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)