Boomers' reputation on the Internet

[David Horn]

(10-16-2019, 02:12 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 02:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 01:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 01:14 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 05:19 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: Thanks for that   So she's rather like GW Bush who changed from a playboy to conservative Christian after turning 40. Both experienced a rather Artist-like midlife conversion, only they went in different directions.

And like most converts, she is fiercely focused on her new reality.  If she wins the Presidency, she'll tolerate little nonsense from anyone.

Your predictions are pretty good. This is a startling one about a politician. So if she wins, we'll see.

-- so what's her score Eric?

Her score is a mediocre 8-7, the same as Mike Pence. I refer to both of them as "wooden" in their style. Bernie is the better choice for progressives, because his score of 14-7 may indicate a chance to beat the Drumpf, whose score is 9-4.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentia...ScoredWhat

Reality bites, but Sanders' heart attack ended any chance the Democrats will risk betting on him.  He's still the Gray Champion Incarnate of the neo-left, but, like Barry Goldwater on the right, he'll have to watch someone else carry the torch into the stadium.  Who is needed is a late-40 early-50 year old with the same philosophy and drive.  I've seen none to date.   

[sbarrera]

(10-16-2019, 02:27 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 02:12 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 02:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 01:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 01:14 PM)David Horn Wrote: And like most converts, she is fiercely focused on her new reality.  If she wins the Presidency, she'll tolerate little nonsense from anyone.

Your predictions are pretty good. This is a startling one about a politician. So if she wins, we'll see.

-- so what's her score Eric?

Her score is a mediocre 8-7, the same as Mike Pence. I refer to both of them as "wooden" in their style. Bernie is the better choice for progressives, because his score of 14-7 may indicate a chance to beat the Drumpf, whose score is 9-4.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentia...ScoredWhat

Reality bites, but Sanders' heart attack ended any chance the Democrats will risk betting on him.  He's still the Gray Champion Incarnate of the neo-left, but, like Barry Goldwater on the right, he'll have to watch someone else carry the torch into the stadium.  Who is needed is a late-40 early-50 year old with the same philosophy and drive.  I've seen none to date.   

Xer progressives stayed out of politics. They all went into tech and entertainment.

[David Horn]

(10-16-2019, 09:00 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 02:27 PM)David Horn Wrote: Reality bites, but Sanders' heart attack ended any chance the Democrats will risk betting on him.  He's still the Gray Champion Incarnate of the neo-left, but, like Barry Goldwater on the right, he'll have to watch someone else carry the torch into the stadium.  Who is needed is a late-40 early-50 year old with the same philosophy and drive.  I've seen none to date.   

Xer progressives stayed out of politics. They all went into tech and entertainment.

Buried somewhere within the bureaucracy is just the person we need right now: brave and inciteful. Some are already quitting their jobs for the privilege to testify against the Orange One. Others are writing tell-all books about things most of us would be happier not knowing. It's what Nomads do best. Will one of them step forward and run for office? Some already have, but only for the House so far. Unfortunately, we need someone available today, so those good soldiers will be the middle and senior managers in someone else's administration. It's looking more and more like Elizabeth Warren. Eventually, we'll need a pragmatist, and we already have a Dwight Eisenhower in the wings: Mayor Pete, but it's not time for an Ike today.

[Eric the Green]

(10-16-2019, 09:00 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 02:27 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 02:12 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 02:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 01:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Your predictions are pretty good. This is a startling one about a politician. So if she wins, we'll see.

-- so what's her score Eric?

Her score is a mediocre 8-7, the same as Mike Pence. I refer to both of them as "wooden" in their style. Bernie is the better choice for progressives, because his score of 14-7 may indicate a chance to beat the Drumpf, whose score is 9-4.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentia...ScoredWhat

Reality bites, but Sanders' heart attack ended any chance the Democrats will risk betting on him.  He's still the Gray Champion Incarnate of the neo-left, but, like Barry Goldwater on the right, he'll have to watch someone else carry the torch into the stadium.  Who is needed is a late-40 early-50 year old with the same philosophy and drive.  I've seen none to date.   

Xer progressives stayed out of politics. They all went into tech and entertainment.

Exactly so.

I'm not ready to write off Bernie just yet. People of all ages have heart attacks, and come back stronger. That is the case with Bernie. But, his chances do seem to be diminishing, at least for now.

[David Horn]

(10-21-2019, 02:08 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm not ready to write off Bernie just yet. People of all ages have heart attacks, and come back stronger. That is the case with Bernie. But, his chances do seem to be diminishing, at least for now.

In any other context, I would agree -- but not this one. The stakes are the highest ever, and any factor that makes a candidate even slightly risky is probably enough to torpedo his or her chances. That's more the case when the issue is health related. It may not be fair, but Bernie's done, and just doesn't know it yet.

[Eric the Green]

(10-21-2019, 01:19 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-21-2019, 02:08 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm not ready to write off Bernie just yet. People of all ages have heart attacks, and come back stronger. That is the case with Bernie. But, his chances do seem to be diminishing, at least for now.

In any other context, I would agree -- but not this one.  The stakes are the highest ever, and any factor that makes a candidate even slightly risky is probably enough to torpedo his or her chances.  That's more the case when the issue is health related.  It may not be fair, but Bernie's done, and just doesn't know it yet.

We'll see, but the problem is, as you well stated, we have no alternative to the older candidates. Warren's honeymoon is over too. The Democrats do not have a viable candidate; those in their 60s who could have been, such as McAuliffe, Landrieu and Brown, dropped out for whatever reason. So the Democrats' only hope is to get an old geezer elected to replace the Republican old geezer, to stop the bleeding for one term, or else the bleeding will continue for one term (perhaps with the congress becoming the virtual president), and then probably new candidates not running now will arise for the 2024 election that will decide the fate of America.

[Eric the Green]

(10-17-2019, 09:36 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 09:00 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 02:27 PM)David Horn Wrote: Reality bites, but Sanders' heart attack ended any chance the Democrats will risk betting on him.  He's still the Gray Champion Incarnate of the neo-left, but, like Barry Goldwater on the right, he'll have to watch someone else carry the torch into the stadium.  Who is needed is a late-40 early-50 year old with the same philosophy and drive.  I've seen none to date.   

Xer progressives stayed out of politics. They all went into tech and entertainment.

Buried somewhere within the bureaucracy is just the person we need right now: brave and inciteful.  Some are already quitting their jobs for the privilege to testify against the Orange One.  Others are writing tell-all books about things most of us would be happier not knowing.  It's what Nomads do best.  Will one of them step forward and run for office?  Some already have, but only for the House so far.  Unfortunately, we need someone available today, so those good soldiers will be the middle and senior managers in someone else's administration.  It's looking more and more like Elizabeth Warren.  Eventually, we'll need a pragmatist, and we already have a Dwight Eisenhower in the wings: Mayor Pete, but it's not time for an Ike today.

Maybe so. From my indicators, I think Gavin Newsom has a better chance than Pete of becoming that new Ike sometime after 2028 or 2032. Pete will be a flash in the pan. Meanwhile, there's still a chance McAuliffe or Landrieu will arise in 2024 to provide true boomer gray champion leadership for the 4T climax. Warren may have reached her limits, and Sanders may revive or Biden stay strong, but whether any of the three can be elected in 2020 is a crap shoot at best. 2020 may indeed be the start of a new era, but it may not start in the customary way with a new dynamic president. The best we can hope for is a place-holder like Biden for one term, who will not seek re-election. I see the congress as stepping forward if Trump wins in 2020 and reducing Trump/Pence to figureheads, until the Democratic Gray Champion core/late boomer steps up to the task in 2024.

[beechnut79]

(10-21-2019, 02:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-17-2019, 09:36 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 09:00 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 02:27 PM)David Horn Wrote: Reality bites, but Sanders' heart attack ended any chance the Democrats will risk betting on him.  He's still the Gray Champion Incarnate of the neo-left, but, like Barry Goldwater on the right, he'll have to watch someone else carry the torch into the stadium.  Who is needed is a late-40 early-50 year old with the same philosophy and drive.  I've seen none to date.   

Xer progressives stayed out of politics. They all went into tech and entertainment.

Buried somewhere within the bureaucracy is just the person we need right now: brave and inciteful.  Some are already quitting their jobs for the privilege to testify against the Orange One.  Others are writing tell-all books about things most of us would be happier not knowing.  It's what Nomads do best.  Will one of them step forward and run for office?  Some already have, but only for the House so far.  Unfortunately, we need someone available today, so those good soldiers will be the middle and senior managers in someone else's administration.  It's looking more and more like Elizabeth Warren.  Eventually, we'll need a pragmatist, and we already have a Dwight Eisenhower in the wings: Mayor Pete, but it's not time for an Ike today.

Maybe so. From my indicators, I think Gavin Newsom has a better chance than Pete of becoming that new Ike sometime after 2028 or 2032. Pete will be a flash in the pan. Meanwhile, there's still a chance McAuliffe or Landrieu will arise in 2024 to provide true boomer gray champion leadership for the 4T climax. Warren may have reached her limits, and Sanders may revive or Biden stay strong, but whether any of the three can be elected in 2020 is a crap shoot at best. 2020 may indeed be the start of a new era, but it may not start in the customary way with a new dynamic president. The best we can hope for is a place-holder like Biden for one term, who will not seek re-election. I see the congress as stepping forward if Trump wins in 2020 and reducing Trump/Pence to figureheads, until the Democratic Gray Champion core/late boomer steps up to the task in 2024.

Do you feel as if the opening years of the 2020s will feel like an extension of the outgoing decade?

[David Horn]

(10-21-2019, 02:11 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-21-2019, 01:19 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-21-2019, 02:08 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm not ready to write off Bernie just yet. People of all ages have heart attacks, and come back stronger. That is the case with Bernie. But, his chances do seem to be diminishing, at least for now.

In any other context, I would agree -- but not this one.  The stakes are the highest ever, and any factor that makes a candidate even slightly risky is probably enough to torpedo his or her chances.  That's more the case when the issue is health related.  It may not be fair, but Bernie's done, and just doesn't know it yet.

We'll see, but the problem is, as you well stated, we have no alternative to the older candidates. Warren's honeymoon is over too. The Democrats do not have a viable candidate; those in their 60s who could have been, such as McAuliffe, Landrieu and Brown, dropped out for whatever reason. So the Democrats' only hope is to get an old geezer elected to replace the Republican old geezer, to stop the bleeding for one term, or else the bleeding will continue for one term (perhaps with the congress becoming the virtual president), and then probably new candidates not running now will arise for the 2024 election that will decide the fate of America.

No!  It's this election or never.  Your prescription reads like a passage from a Silent manifesto: not too much and not too soon … please.  In short, the already aggravated many will just do an eyeroll, and elect Trump again.  Populists haven't been this successful worldwide in 100 years, and the reason is simple.  The people are fed up -- everywhere.  A nice middle-of-the-road politician inspires much more revulsion than support these days.    That's why we have a real estate hustler running the country, and the reason we need someone bold to oppose him this time.  A cycle or two in the future, that may be a bad idea.  But that's then and this is now.

[Eric the Green]

(10-22-2019, 03:11 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-21-2019, 02:11 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-21-2019, 01:19 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-21-2019, 02:08 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm not ready to write off Bernie just yet. People of all ages have heart attacks, and come back stronger. That is the case with Bernie. But, his chances do seem to be diminishing, at least for now.

In any other context, I would agree -- but not this one.  The stakes are the highest ever, and any factor that makes a candidate even slightly risky is probably enough to torpedo his or her chances.  That's more the case when the issue is health related.  It may not be fair, but Bernie's done, and just doesn't know it yet.

We'll see, but the problem is, as you well stated, we have no alternative to the older candidates. Warren's honeymoon is over too. The Democrats do not have a viable candidate; those in their 60s who could have been, such as McAuliffe, Landrieu and Brown, dropped out for whatever reason. So the Democrats' only hope is to get an old geezer elected to replace the Republican old geezer, to stop the bleeding for one term, or else the bleeding will continue for one term (perhaps with the congress becoming the virtual president), and then probably new candidates not running now will arise for the 2024 election that will decide the fate of America.

No!  It's this election or never.  Your prescription reads like a passage from a Silent manifesto: not too much and not too soon … please.  In short, the already aggravated many will just do an eyeroll, and elect Trump again.  Populists haven't been this successful worldwide in 100 years, and the reason is simple.  The people are fed up -- everywhere.  A nice middle-of-the-road politician inspires much more revulsion than support these days.    That's why we have a real estate hustler running the country, and the reason we need someone bold to oppose him this time.  A cycle or two in the future, that may be a bad idea.  But that's then and this is now.

Well, it's not a prescription. I agree; I might even say it may be too late. Long over due, anyway. I hope you don't mind my predictions. I think I need to keep making them because they give a long-term perspective. I think people need this.

Also I keep reminding people that these "successful politicians feeding on people fed up" (nice pun there, thank you       )  are not populists. They are demagogues. Bernie is a populist. He wants to return power to the people, and appeals for the people to rise up and vote. That's a populist. People who appeal to the lowest fears and prejudices of the people, like our hustler president, are demagogues. It's an important distinction to make. 

What we've got now is a bevey of new tyrants. And we've got people power everywhere rising up against them. That's going to be the battle of the 2020s.

Why are so many tyrants appearing today? Well, revolutions attract repression and reaction. The Arab Spring, which was spurred by climate change, caused an unprecedented (but predicted by me, as you know) wave of immigrants, arousing xenophobia in many places, for example in Europe, in southeast Asia and southeast Oceania, and in the USA. And specifically this wave was partly caused by the repressions of the revolutions (chiefly by Assad). And the other factor is that some people who are fed up get confused and vote for or otherwise submit to their oppressors and to demagogues who pose as liberators. As far as I can tell, that's what happened in the USA and Brazil, at least, and Venezuela too. Otherwise, I see the strong and well-known astrological indicator of Saturn and Pluto in Capricorn. And this current pall will clear up in the early 2020s as the planets move into Aquarius. Many indicators show the progressive forces getting the upper hand as we move farther into the next decade.

So, although I agree "it's time now," I put out as a beacon of hope, not as a prescription, that whatever happens in 2020, and the indicators look rather poor from our point of view, the progressive tide will still be rising and will not be stopped. So, hang on, it's going to be a bumpy ride. and worth staying around to watch!

But people here can put out their own predictions. Mine is not the only crystal ball. Maybe one of the best, though  I can't change what the ball tells me, just because I might not like what it says.

[Eric the Green]

(10-22-2019, 09:00 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(10-21-2019, 02:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-17-2019, 09:36 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 09:00 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 02:27 PM)David Horn Wrote: Reality bites, but Sanders' heart attack ended any chance the Democrats will risk betting on him.  He's still the Gray Champion Incarnate of the neo-left, but, like Barry Goldwater on the right, he'll have to watch someone else carry the torch into the stadium.  Who is needed is a late-40 early-50 year old with the same philosophy and drive.  I've seen none to date.   

Xer progressives stayed out of politics. They all went into tech and entertainment.

Buried somewhere within the bureaucracy is just the person we need right now: brave and inciteful.  Some are already quitting their jobs for the privilege to testify against the Orange One.  Others are writing tell-all books about things most of us would be happier not knowing.  It's what Nomads do best.  Will one of them step forward and run for office?  Some already have, but only for the House so far.  Unfortunately, we need someone available today, so those good soldiers will be the middle and senior managers in someone else's administration.  It's looking more and more like Elizabeth Warren.  Eventually, we'll need a pragmatist, and we already have a Dwight Eisenhower in the wings: Mayor Pete, but it's not time for an Ike today.

Maybe so. From my indicators, I think Gavin Newsom has a better chance than Pete of becoming that new Ike sometime after 2028 or 2032. Pete will be a flash in the pan. Meanwhile, there's still a chance McAuliffe or Landrieu will arise in 2024 to provide true boomer gray champion leadership for the 4T climax. Warren may have reached her limits, and Sanders may revive or Biden stay strong, but whether any of the three can be elected in 2020 is a crap shoot at best. 2020 may indeed be the start of a new era, but it may not start in the customary way with a new dynamic president. The best we can hope for is a place-holder like Biden for one term, who will not seek re-election. I see the congress as stepping forward if Trump wins in 2020 and reducing Trump/Pence to figureheads, until the Democratic Gray Champion core/late boomer steps up to the task in 2024.

Do you feel as if the opening years of the 2020s will feel like an extension of the outgoing decade?

It's complicated. I think it will be different. But already we see progressive forces rising and the repressive rulers in trouble in 2019. So it may be a 2 or 3-year gradual shift if Bernie doesn't win, since I don't see Warren as winning, and if Biden wins I see him as a voluntary one-term transitional figure, not just as a corporate stooge. I have more hopes for him than many on the Left do, but still, he will not be the leader we need that revs up the progressive engines that will get going circa 2022-23. Other leaders will arise; first in congress, and then maybe one of those core/late boomers who can actually win and lead, Landrieu, McAuliffe or Brown, will run and win the presidency in 2024, and lead us through the next 5 years of 4T climax. I don't see a Gen Xer rising up to lead us; they will only move into power once the 1T starts in 2029. And then a Millennial after that. 

If Trump wins, perhaps because as David implies people prefer destruction to middling solutions offered by Biden, he will be in constant trouble and will likely be removed from office. Congress will rule the country after that, with Pence or whoever succeeded by a Democrat in 2024. If Bernie wins in 2020, although I also see him as a one-term president, the engines will rev up faster after 2020. But there's a danger of something else more reactionary coming along in 2024, in that case; perhaps a third party with mixed results, or else a Republican takeover and resulting failed Revolution by the Left, and American decline. I hope though, that Bernie as well as Biden would also be replaced by Landrieu or McAuliffe as the 2024 Democratic nominee, as the only potential candidates with scores high enough on my system to beat the odds, which say that the party out of power will win in 2024.

The planets moving into Aquarius in the 2020s are moving into the sign of the legislature. The hope of electing a president to lead us may be misplaced. A legislature can lead too. We may even shift to a parliamentary system.

Once a 4T really gets going, katy bar the door. Who knows just how far the changes will go. An end to gerrymandering, a new supreme court that takes money out of politics and semi-automatics out of peoples' hands, a parliamentary system that curtails the power of the president or PM to dictate wars and foreign policy changes, an end to the 2 party system with ranked-choice voting and proportional representation, changes to the ownership and control of corporations as Bernie proposes, wholesale changes to our energy and health systems, term limits and balanced budget amendments, an end to the filibuster and the electoral college, tax hikes on the rich, or a total reactionary takeover by the xenophobes, gun nuts and tax haters; who knows where this is going and how far. But this 4T has 9 years to run and it has hardly begun.

[pbrower2a]

(10-22-2019, 09:00 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(10-21-2019, 02:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-17-2019, 09:36 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 09:00 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 02:27 PM)David Horn Wrote: Reality bites, but Sanders' heart attack ended any chance the Democrats will risk betting on him.  He's still the Gray Champion Incarnate of the neo-left, but, like Barry Goldwater on the right, he'll have to watch someone else carry the torch into the stadium.  Who is needed is a late-40 early-50 year old with the same philosophy and drive.  I've seen none to date.   

Xer progressives stayed out of politics. They all went into tech and entertainment.

Buried somewhere within the bureaucracy is just the person we need right now: brave and inciteful.  Some are already quitting their jobs for the privilege to testify against the Orange One.  Others are writing tell-all books about things most of us would be happier not knowing.  It's what Nomads do best.  Will one of them step forward and run for office?  Some already have, but only for the House so far.  Unfortunately, we need someone available today, so those good soldiers will be the middle and senior managers in someone else's administration.  It's looking more and more like Elizabeth Warren.  Eventually, we'll need a pragmatist, and we already have a Dwight Eisenhower in the wings: Mayor Pete, but it's not time for an Ike today.

Maybe so. From my indicators, I think Gavin Newsom has a better chance than Pete of becoming that new Ike sometime after 2028 or 2032. Pete will be a flash in the pan. Meanwhile, there's still a chance McAuliffe or Landrieu will arise in 2024 to provide true boomer gray champion leadership for the 4T climax. Warren may have reached her limits, and Sanders may revive or Biden stay strong, but whether any of the three can be elected in 2020 is a crap shoot at best. 2020 may indeed be the start of a new era, but it may not start in the customary way with a new dynamic president. The best we can hope for is a place-holder like Biden for one term, who will not seek re-election. I see the congress as stepping forward if Trump wins in 2020 and reducing Trump/Pence to figureheads, until the Democratic Gray Champion core/late boomer steps up to the task in 2024.

Do you feel as if the opening years of the 2020s will feel like an extension of the outgoing decade?

The impeachment of Donald Trump may be as significant as the establishment of the Constitution. With Trump going down, many Republicans (mostly of the Tea Party waves) go down, too. We will probably be better off when politics start showing more concern for constituents instead for the hidden money that dictates how politicians vote in Congress and in state legislatures. 

2020 is the big election. If it goes bad, then we will have a very nasty Saeculum as a sequel. We could have a society under the tight control of what Toynbee calls a dominant elite, the sort that determines that all economic activity, all culture,  and political life exist to ensure that the Right People get everything and that life becomes a burdensome privilege for people not in that elite. Most immigrants to America came to escape inequitable, repressive, hierarchical societies in which few people had a chance at satisfying lives.  

We are getting the sort of civics lesson that George III gave the Colonies just before the American Revolution.

[Eric the Green]

(10-23-2019, 01:35 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(10-22-2019, 09:00 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(10-21-2019, 02:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-17-2019, 09:36 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-16-2019, 09:00 PM)sbarrera Wrote: Xer progressives stayed out of politics. They all went into tech and entertainment.

Buried somewhere within the bureaucracy is just the person we need right now: brave and inciteful.  Some are already quitting their jobs for the privilege to testify against the Orange One.  Others are writing tell-all books about things most of us would be happier not knowing.  It's what Nomads do best.  Will one of them step forward and run for office?  Some already have, but only for the House so far.  Unfortunately, we need someone available today, so those good soldiers will be the middle and senior managers in someone else's administration.  It's looking more and more like Elizabeth Warren.  Eventually, we'll need a pragmatist, and we already have a Dwight Eisenhower in the wings: Mayor Pete, but it's not time for an Ike today.

Maybe so. From my indicators, I think Gavin Newsom has a better chance than Pete of becoming that new Ike sometime after 2028 or 2032. Pete will be a flash in the pan. Meanwhile, there's still a chance McAuliffe or Landrieu will arise in 2024 to provide true boomer gray champion leadership for the 4T climax. Warren may have reached her limits, and Sanders may revive or Biden stay strong, but whether any of the three can be elected in 2020 is a crap shoot at best. 2020 may indeed be the start of a new era, but it may not start in the customary way with a new dynamic president. The best we can hope for is a place-holder like Biden for one term, who will not seek re-election. I see the congress as stepping forward if Trump wins in 2020 and reducing Trump/Pence to figureheads, until the Democratic Gray Champion core/late boomer steps up to the task in 2024.

Do you feel as if the opening years of the 2020s will feel like an extension of the outgoing decade?

The impeachment of Donald Trump may be as significant as the establishment of the Constitution. With Trump going down, many Republicans (mostly of the Tea Party waves) go down, too. We will probably be better off when politics start showing more concern for constituents instead for the hidden money that dictates how politicians vote in Congress and in state legislatures. 

2020 is the big election. If it goes bad, then we will have a very nasty Saeculum as a sequel. We could have a society under the tight control of what Toynbee calls a dominant elite, the sort that determines that all economic activity, all culture,  and political life exist to ensure that the Right People get everything and that life becomes a burdensome privilege for people not in that elite. Most immigrants to America came to escape inequitable, repressive, hierarchical societies in which few people had a chance at satisfying lives.  

We are getting the sort of civics lesson that George III gave the Colonies just before the American Revolution.

Don't give up if 2020 goes bad. It will be a very bad situation, and it could mean a nasty and final saeculum for the USA as we know it. On the other hand, remember that 6th year midterms are historically bad for the Party holding the White House. And if Trump wins, his ego will be so big that his misbehavior will know no bounds, and he could be convicted by the Senate before he can become dictator. Pence would at least lose his reputation too. From Jan.2023, the congress could rule the nation. Demographics are shifting, and the white rural Republicans can't hold this change off forever. The 2022 midterm could be a opposition party tsunami the likes of which this nation has never seen. We could see rule by the congress similar to what happened in the later 1860s. No such idea that the 4T will end in 2025 should be entertained. This crisis era has just begun.

[pbrower2a]

(10-23-2019, 01:19 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-23-2019, 01:35 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: The impeachment of Donald Trump may be as significant as the establishment of the Constitution. With Trump going down, many Republicans (mostly of the Tea Party waves) go down, too. We will probably be better off when politics start showing more concern for constituents instead for the hidden money that dictates how politicians vote in Congress and in state legislatures. 

2020 is the big election. If it goes bad, then we will have a very nasty Saeculum as a sequel. We could have a society under the tight control of what Toynbee calls a dominant elite, the sort that determines that all economic activity, all culture,  and political life exist to ensure that the Right People get everything and that life becomes a burdensome privilege for people not in that elite. Most immigrants to America came to escape inequitable, repressive, hierarchical societies in which few people had a chance at satisfying lives.  

We are getting the sort of civics lesson that George III gave the Colonies just before the American Revolution.

Don't give up if 2020 goes bad. It will be a very bad situation, and it could mean a nasty and final saeculum for the USA as we know it. On the other hand, remember that 6th year midterms are historically bad for the Party holding the White House. And if Trump wins, his ego will be so big that his misbehavior will know no bounds, and he could be convicted by the Senate before he can become dictator. Pence would at least lose his reputation too. From Jan. 2023, the congress could rule the nation. Demographics are shifting, and the white rural Republicans can't hold this change off forever. The 2022 midterm could be a opposition party tsunami the likes of which this nation has never seen. We could see rule by the congress similar to what happened in the later 1860s. No such idea that the 4T will end in 2025 should be entertained. This crisis era has just begun.

The best result of the current mess is that we find that the Constitution means exactly what it says about checks and balances and the separation of powers. The Founding Fathers designed the President to have great powers but none dictatorial or despotic. 

That 2016 could have been a partial reverse-wave against the GOP in the Senate and was not, 2022 could be. But more important will be that the Republicans will have done even more to consolidate power, and that economic power will meld more completely with political power. They will likely have even more control of state legislatures, and will have likely gained control of the House if Trump wins in 2020. The personality cult will be even more entrenched. Loyalty to Donald Trump will be treated as a patriotic virtue, and dissent will be treated as near-treason. 

Most significantly, the checks and balances and separation of powers will be no more. Rigged elections could become the norm, and the dominant class could establish an Apartheid system in politics. 

Entrenchment of a political order is the hallmark of the transition from 1T to the 2T. Vile dictatorships can thrive in a 1T with social conformity establishing complacency among the in-groups and fear in the out-groups.