What will happen when this turning ends?

[AspieMillennial]

Since it will be 2020 soon, it will be around 8 years until this turning ends. We're already more than halfway through.

[Bill the Piper]

If you are curious about the future, you can browse the timeline on Orion's Arm:
https://www.orionsarm.com/eg-topic/45b2afc424975

Or maybe this one:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentu...entury.htm

And all of this is speculation, because noone can know the future beyond trivial statements like "there will be cold days in December 2200".

From S&H perspective, a lot depends on who wins the current 4T. If the Left wins, we will have something like "environmental emergency" high. If the Nationalists win, they won't be able to establish a proper 1T because the elites despise them. This would indicate a blank period followed by another 4T or a 2T with a lot of Civic themes like the Solidarity awakening in 1980s Poland.

[AspieMillennial]

(12-23-2019, 04:03 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: If you are curious about the future, you can browse the timeline on Orion's Arm:
https://www.orionsarm.com/eg-topic/45b2afc424975

Or maybe this one:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentu...entury.htm

And all of this is speculation, because noone can know the future beyond trivial statements like "there will be cold days in December 2200".

From S&H perspective, a lot depends on who wins the current 4T. If the Left wins, we will have something like "environmental emergency" high. If the Nationalists win, they won't be able to establish a proper 1T because the elites despise them. This would indicate a blank period followed by another 4T or a 2T with a lot of Civic themes like the Solidarity awakening in 1980s Poland.

How would the environmental emergency be a high if the people who think there's an environmental emergency want to drastically lower the living standards?

[Warren Dew]

(12-23-2019, 04:03 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: If the Nationalists win, they won't be able to establish a proper 1T because the elites despise them.

If the Nationalists win, that will mean that most of the elites have been destroyed, and the remaining ones will have been cowed into submission.

[Warren Dew]

(12-23-2019, 08:29 AM)AspieMillennial Wrote: How would the environmental emergency be a high if the people who think there's an environmental emergency want to drastically lower the living standards

The "high" is poorly named and doesn't necessarily mean high living standards.  It just means the winners of the crisis conflict get a high from imposing their ideas on everyone.

That said, I've never seen any evidence that the left actually cares about the environment; they just use it as a political rallying cry.  I'm unconvinced that would convert into genuine useful action on the environment just because of the end of the crisis period.

[Eric the Green]

(12-23-2019, 04:03 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: If you are curious about the future, you can browse the timeline on Orion's Arm:
https://www.orionsarm.com/eg-topic/45b2afc424975

Or maybe this one:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentu...entury.htm

And all of this is speculation, because noone can know the future beyond trivial statements like "there will be cold days in December 2200".

From S&H perspective, a lot depends on who wins the current 4T. If the Left wins, we will have something like "environmental emergency" high. If the Nationalists win, they won't be able to establish a proper 1T because the elites despise them. This would indicate a blank period followed by another 4T or a 2T with a lot of Civic themes like the Solidarity awakening in 1980s Poland.

The future can't be known, at least not in any detail, but don't forget I have predicted the basic outlines and major events of recent decades.

The elites may despise Trump but many of them are all too happy to support him because he lowers taxes and regulations, and our elites basically only care about those things. But otherwise I think I agree. If the nationalists win, then the 1T would be a period of tremendous decline as the business elites will get carte blanche to continue destroying our government and filling the courts with reactionaries. But the rising ethnic groups and millennials may not wholly go away, so that may be the soil from which a new awakening could grow. Such a 2T would be a tough row to hoe, but meanwhile the nationalists would be able to deceive and comfort the white masses with their cover ups and fake news so that for them it might feel like a normal, if blank, 1T. 

I am fairly confident the Left will win and continue our economic and ecological transformation toward a sustainable nation and world during the 1T. That would also mean that, unlike if the Right-wing wins, the 2T may actually be somewhat calm and euphoric, even as it could be drastic in the level of change effected on cultural as well as political levels. It could be like Lyndon Johnson without Vietnam, or at least a smaller one stopped by the peace movement before it gets out of hand.

[David Horn]

(12-23-2019, 01:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 04:03 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: If the Nationalists win, they won't be able to establish a proper 1T because the elites despise them.

If the Nationalists win, that will mean that most of the elites have been destroyed, and the remaining ones will have been cowed into submission.

That depends on which elites you're addressing.  The wealthy elite are, for all practical purposes, untouchable by the nationalists who rant on about foreigners, not them.  If anything, the wealthy elite are completely happy to  join in the immigrant-bashing, while using their at-risk talents to make millions or Billions for themselves.

[David Horn]

(12-23-2019, 03:25 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I am fairly confident the Left will win and continue our economic and ecological transformation toward a sustainable nation and world during the 1T. That would also mean that, unlike if the Right-wing wins, the 2T may actually be somewhat calm and euphoric, even as it could be drastic in the level of change effected on cultural as well as political levels. It could be like Lyndon Johnson without Vietnam, or at least a smaller one stopped by the peace movement before it gets out of hand.

Nothing is preordained. Trump and the others of his ilk, tapped into emotional tidal waves, and used the anger to their own benefit. The anger is still there. The real question: is the anger strong enough to push reason aside again? If so, then their memes become the new trendline, and counter-narratives will have a hard time being heard. They've already shown that there is no such thing as too much cheating.

[pbrower2a]

(12-23-2019, 03:25 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 04:03 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: If you are curious about the future, you can browse the timeline on Orion's Arm:
https://www.orionsarm.com/eg-topic/45b2afc424975

Or maybe this one:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentu...entury.htm

And all of this is speculation, because noone can know the future beyond trivial statements like "there will be cold days in December 2200".

From S&H perspective, a lot depends on who wins the current 4T. If the Left wins, we will have something like "environmental emergency" high. If the Nationalists win, they won't be able to establish a proper 1T because the elites despise them. This would indicate a blank period followed by another 4T or a 2T with a lot of Civic themes like the Solidarity awakening in 1980s Poland.

The future can't be known, at least not in any detail, but don't forget I have predicted the basic outlines and major events of recent decades.

The elites may despise Trump but many of them are all too happy to support him because he lowers taxes and regulations, and our elites basically only care about those things. But otherwise I think I agree. If the nationalists win, then the 1T would be a period of tremendous decline as the business elites will get carte blanche to continue destroying our government and filling the courts with reactionaries. But the rising ethnic groups and millennials may not wholly go away, so that may be the soil from which a new awakening could grow. Such a 2T would be a tough row to hoe, but meanwhile the nationalists would be able to deceive and comfort the white masses with their cover ups and fake news so that for them it might feel like a normal, if blank, 1T. 

I am fairly confident the Left will win and continue our economic and ecological transformation toward a sustainable nation and world during the 1T. That would also mean that, unlike if the Right-wing wins, the 2T may actually be somewhat calm and euphoric, even as it could be drastic in the level of change effected on cultural as well as political levels. It could be like Lyndon Johnson without Vietnam, or at least a smaller one stopped by the peace movement before it gets out of hand.

One thing will be certain: the 1T will be to a great extent a repudiation of practically everything 3T. People will recognize the mindless hedonism, the focus on the short term, and the every-man-for-himself ethos as causes or intensification of the Crisis or the frustration of solutions. Behavior out of Christopher Isherwood's Berlin Stories (relating the depraved mass culture of the later stages of the Weimar Republic) that became the play I am a Camera  and in turn the musical Cabaret with many possible stagings, including the strange but effective musical in horror-movie form as cinema.  (I consider the cinematic version a horror film because it has the usual elements of a horror film, including the absence of intellectual and moral pretenses, freakish characters, and above all bad things happening to good people. The only likable characters in the movie are Jews -- and you get a portent of what will happen to them under you-know-who). Another aspect will be the complete repudiation of what went wrong in the 4T. People will be looking for root causes and will find ways to root those out of our system in education, culture, politics, and business practices. 

America will be less tolerant of economic inequality because such will be seen as having stunted children and created a cynical view of many. Americans will insist upon more equality of economic result in all parts of the country and among all ethnic and religious groups. People of great talent will get to succeed, but the huge gap between worker and administrator in living will lessen. We are more l;ikely to see something like 5-to-1 ratios in income between executives and workers, and executives will have more likelihood of having started out on the shop floor than having been lifted from a CPA firm.  So economic realities will be more like those of the 1950's than like those of the last two decades: the business executives will be old men or women who know the company from the ground floor up and have an idea of how the plant operates or what life is like for a teller or sales clerk. 

Taxes will be higher on elite incomes, especially if the income is 'passive'. But taxes will also be graduated so that those who operate small businesses of the types that flourished in the 1950's with Lost owner-operators will get a revival: mom-and-pop stores, restaurants, service stations, and even small-scale banks and manufacturing outfits. People with talent will find more niches than they now do; talented people will not be so quickly consigned to proletarian work because they come from the 'wrong family'. 

Our current flat tax on business income encourages monopoly and vertical integration, with executive elites exploiting bureaucratic power to maximize their income.    

Culture got bland in the last 1T -- but then, the Missionary Generation was dropping out of cultural life. Figure that Boomers, should they follow the same pattern as the GI and Silent Generation of remaining active and taking care of themselves in old age, may still make huge contributions to cultural life as the Missionary Generation didn't. To be sure, Boom culture has not been as rich as Missionary culture (in music alone -- who is our Mahler? Debussy? Sibelius? Ives? Scriabin? Bartok? Stravinsky?  We don't even have a Vaughan-Williams or Respighi yet). it could be that American culture is so commercial that it has little room for ars gratia artis. No, Thomas Kincade, with his houses so brightly lit that they seem to be on fire, doesn't cut it.  

I am tempted to believe that Donald Trump will have the unenviable role of a scapegoat for all that went wrong in America. Awful as he is as President (admit it, conservatives -- you would have been far better off with Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney as President, but so would we all), he is not the cause of all wrong. 



This is the sort of political expression that makes someone so awful as Trump possible. By 2030 we will generally see Barack Obama as a wasted opportunity to improve America, and Trump as pure rot. So our economic elites were unwilling to make any sacrifices on behalf of America as a whole and chose to fund reactionary politicians who concur with them that the role of the common man is pure responsibility and little reward for enriching and indulging elites responsible to themselves alone? That is not good for creating any sense of community.

[Warren Dew]

(12-26-2019, 02:19 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 01:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 04:03 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: If the Nationalists win, they won't be able to establish a proper 1T because the elites despise them.

If the Nationalists win, that will mean that most of the elites have been destroyed, and the remaining ones will have been cowed into submission.

That depends on which elites you're addressing.  The wealthy elite are, for all practical purposes, untouchable by the nationalists who rant on about foreigners, not them.  If anything, the wealthy elite are completely happy to  join in the immigrant-bashing, while using their at-risk talents to make millions or Billions for themselves.

The Nationalists would love to take out the Globalist elites.  Soros, Gates and Microsoft's campuses in India, Google and Facebook and their immigrant engineers and managers, I could easily see Nationalists take a wrecking ball to them as the crisis gets more intense.

[Classic-Xer]

(12-26-2019, 02:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 03:25 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I am fairly confident the Left will win and continue our economic and ecological transformation toward a sustainable nation and world during the 1T. That would also mean that, unlike if the Right-wing wins, the 2T may actually be somewhat calm and euphoric, even as it could be drastic in the level of change effected on cultural as well as political levels. It could be like Lyndon Johnson without Vietnam, or at least a smaller one stopped by the peace movement before it gets out of hand.

Nothing is preordained.  Trump and the others of his ilk, tapped into emotional tidal waves, and used the anger to their own benefit.  The anger is still there.  The real question: is the anger strong enough to push reason aside again?  If so, then their memes become the new trendline, and counter-narratives will have a hard time being heard.  They've already shown that there is no such thing as too much cheating.

Well, we know for sure that the anger/fear on the Left/liberal/Globalist side is/ has been strong enough to push reason aside for a while now. Us, all we have to do is tantalize and watch as the Left basically crashes and burns. Whatever you thought, rethink because times have changed significantly since the last liberal candidate lied and cheated his way into office. You better wise up and prepare yourself for the rough road that lays ahead for liberals/ liberal politics as the natural sorting out process that liberals are scratching their heads about continues in earnest.

[Classic-Xer]

(12-26-2019, 02:19 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 01:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 04:03 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: If the Nationalists win, they won't be able to establish a proper 1T because the elites despise them.

If the Nationalists win, that will mean that most of the elites have been destroyed, and the remaining ones will have been cowed into submission.

That depends on which elites you're addressing.  The wealthy elite are, for all practical purposes, untouchable by the nationalists who rant on about foreigners, not them.  If anything, the wealthy elite are completely happy to  join in the immigrant-bashing, while using their at-risk talents to make millions or Billions for themselves.

Are they really as untouchable as you say? Dude, we are touching them/ financially hurting them/ financially threatening them right now which is why your politicians are going ape shit, supporting stupid stuff and acting more like a bunch foreign/ global politicians than American politicians right now. The proof is in the pudding as we say.

[pbrower2a]

(12-27-2019, 01:38 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(12-26-2019, 02:19 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 01:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 04:03 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: If the Nationalists win, they won't be able to establish a proper 1T because the elites despise them.

If the Nationalists win, that will mean that most of the elites have been destroyed, and the remaining ones will have been cowed into submission.

That depends on which elites you're addressing.  The wealthy elite are, for all practical purposes, untouchable by the nationalists who rant on about foreigners, not them.  If anything, the wealthy elite are completely happy to  join in the immigrant-bashing, while using their at-risk talents to make millions or Billions for themselves.

Are they really as untouchable as you say? Dude, we are touching them/ financially hurting them/ financially threatening them right now which is why your politicians are going ape shit, supporting stupid stuff and acting more like a bunch foreign/ global politicians than American politicians right now. The proof is in the pudding as we say.

Classic X'er, the rich-and-powerful will turn on you and all the deluded people that those rich-and-powerful saw as useful tools when they no longer need you for their political ends. Some of them have discovered that the Tea Party has become a Frankenstein monster. They still like their economy monopolistic and inequitable. Maybe when they see someone like Donald Trump as the sort who will get America into a catastrophic war whether through bungling or design, they will turn against him. 

I do not trust the rich-and-powerful, and you are a fool to do so even if they offer some temporary gain, solace, or agenda that you cherish. Anything that they grant they will gladly take away somehow.

[David Horn]

(12-26-2019, 07:12 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(12-26-2019, 02:19 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 01:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 04:03 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: If the Nationalists win, they won't be able to establish a proper 1T because the elites despise them.

If the Nationalists win, that will mean that most of the elites have been destroyed, and the remaining ones will have been cowed into submission.

That depends on which elites you're addressing.  The wealthy elite are, for all practical purposes, untouchable by the nationalists who rant on about foreigners, not them.  If anything, the wealthy elite are completely happy to  join in the immigrant-bashing, while using their at-risk talents to make millions or Billions for themselves.

The Nationalists would love to take out the Globalist elites.  Soros, Gates and Microsoft's campuses in India, Google and Facebook and their immigrant engineers and managers, I could easily see Nationalists take a wrecking ball to them as the crisis gets more intense.

Thank you for making my point.  Note the entire lack of anyone from the much more typical rightwing wealthy elite.  Where ae the Mercers and Kochs?  Yes, the Nationalists are happy to bash internationalists for being, well, internationalists.  But none of the Nationalists want to tax the extremely wealthy the way they need to be taxed to reduce their stranglehold on the economy … none!

[David Horn]

(12-27-2019, 12:59 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(12-26-2019, 02:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 03:25 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I am fairly confident the Left will win and continue our economic and ecological transformation toward a sustainable nation and world during the 1T. That would also mean that, unlike if the Right-wing wins, the 2T may actually be somewhat calm and euphoric, even as it could be drastic in the level of change effected on cultural as well as political levels. It could be like Lyndon Johnson without Vietnam, or at least a smaller one stopped by the peace movement before it gets out of hand.

Nothing is preordained.  Trump and the others of his ilk, tapped into emotional tidal waves, and used the anger to their own benefit.  The anger is still there.  The real question: is the anger strong enough to push reason aside again?  If so, then their memes become the new trendline, and counter-narratives will have a hard time being heard.  They've already shown that there is no such thing as too much cheating.

Well, we know for sure that the anger/fear on the Left/liberal/Globalist side is/ has been strong enough to push reason aside for a while now. Us, all we have to do is tantalize and watch as the Left basically crashes and burns. Whatever you thought, rethink because times have changed significantly since the last liberal candidate lied and cheated his way into office. You better wise up and prepare yourself for the rough road that lays ahead for liberals/ liberal politics as the natural sorting out process that liberals are scratching their heads about continues in earnest.

This reads like the writings of the Fascists in Italy and Spain, back in the 1930s.  Mussolini was hanged and shot; Franco lived into old age.  Personally, I don't see Trump having the "good fortune" of his Spanish predecessor, but God help us if he does.

[David Horn]

(12-27-2019, 01:38 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(12-26-2019, 02:19 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 01:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 04:03 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: If the Nationalists win, they won't be able to establish a proper 1T because the elites despise them.

If the Nationalists win, that will mean that most of the elites have been destroyed, and the remaining ones will have been cowed into submission.

That depends on which elites you're addressing.  The wealthy elite are, for all practical purposes, untouchable by the nationalists who rant on about foreigners, not them.  If anything, the wealthy elite are completely happy to  join in the immigrant-bashing, while using their at-risk talents to make millions or Billions for themselves.

Are they really as untouchable as you say? Dude, we are touching them/ financially hurting them/ financially threatening them right now which is why your politicians are going ape shit, supporting stupid stuff and acting more like a bunch foreign/ global politicians than American politicians right now. The proof is in the pudding as we say.

Are you hurting the Kochs?  What about the Mercers?  For that matter, what about the less public but equally rightwing Billionaires, many of whom are financing the Nationalists, as yo call them?  

You only see what you want to see and disregard the rest. (handwave to Paul Simon for that)

[pbrower2a]

(12-27-2019, 12:59 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(12-26-2019, 02:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 03:25 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I am fairly confident the Left will win and continue our economic and ecological transformation toward a sustainable nation and world during the 1T. That would also mean that, unlike if the Right-wing wins, the 2T may actually be somewhat calm and euphoric, even as it could be drastic in the level of change effected on cultural as well as political levels. It could be like Lyndon Johnson without Vietnam, or at least a smaller one stopped by the peace movement before it gets out of hand.

Nothing is preordained.  Trump and the others of his ilk, tapped into emotional tidal waves, and used the anger to their own benefit.  The anger is still there.  The real question: is the anger strong enough to push reason aside again?  If so, then their memes become the new trendline, and counter-narratives will have a hard time being heard.  They've already shown that there is no such thing as too much cheating.

Well, we know for sure that the anger/fear on the Left/liberal/Globalist side is/ has been strong enough to push reason aside for a while now. Us, all we have to do is tantalize and watch as the Left basically crashes and burns. Whatever you thought, rethink because times have changed significantly since the last liberal candidate lied and cheated his way into office. You better wise up and prepare yourself for the rough road that lays ahead for liberals/ liberal politics as the natural sorting out process that liberals are scratching their heads about continues in earnest.

Reason in America is now mostly on the Left, which is regrettable. The Right could use some likes of the late William F. Buckley -- but instead it relies upon rabble-rousers like Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, and Sean Hannity. Even in religion it pushes the Gospel of Wealth more likely to enrich the Pharisees of our time than to alleviate any mass suffering. The Right could in theory embrace competitive capitalism that has done more good for Humanity than anything other than freedom, law, and technological progress -- but it instead stands for a profit motive reserved for an elite responsible to none but themselves while all but themselves are responsible solely to that elite. That is crony capitalism which reserves opportunity to only a few. Give the Hard Right its way and the most meaningful difference between America and the Soviet Union will be that a Hard Right America will not even pretend to serve the workers. That sort of America would resemble the planet Mongo of Flash Gordon serials -- technically sophisticated yet morally primitive. If you want to contemplate what sort of world is the antithesis of such a nightmare, then consider the Old Order Amish, who have obvious limitations due to their rejection of higher education and technologies of entertainment but at least have more social equality, have roles for everybody, and have adequate prosperity for people who don't need cars, cable TV, the Internet, or a "night life". An Amish farm is a far better playground for children than is the Stalinist architecture that children are getting to know in the more prosperous parts of urban America, let alone the decaying slums of cities that our alleged progress has ravaged. Silicon Valley and Detroit are both anti-child in different, yet similarly unconscionable ways. Children need to play in safety.


I have yet to figure out which President was the last liberal nominee to lie and cheat his way into the President. That must be ancient history or apply to some office other than the President. As for "the rough road ahead" we have Donald Trump, a Constitutional crisis in his own right as well as a moral calamity. Trump has been a liar and cheat all his life, and the Presidency has in no way improved him.

By the way... "Globalist" reminds me of what Stalin called people (Jews) suspect to him because they had connections to others in other lands: "rootless cosmopolites". Who are your "rootless cosmopolites", people who do not recognize the local power structure as the fount of all blessings?

[Eric the Green]

(12-23-2019, 08:29 AM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 04:03 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: If you are curious about the future, you can browse the timeline on Orion's Arm:
https://www.orionsarm.com/eg-topic/45b2afc424975

Or maybe this one:
https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentu...entury.htm

And all of this is speculation, because noone can know the future beyond trivial statements like "there will be cold days in December 2200".

From S&H perspective, a lot depends on who wins the current 4T. If the Left wins, we will have something like "environmental emergency" high. If the Nationalists win, they won't be able to establish a proper 1T because the elites despise them. This would indicate a blank period followed by another 4T or a 2T with a lot of Civic themes like the Solidarity awakening in 1980s Poland.

How would the environmental emergency be a high if the people who think there's an environmental emergency want to drastically lower the living standards?

It won't be necessary to lower living standards, unless your idea of "living" is useless excess waste. The 1T and even the late 4T will be economic boom times and prosperity, for the most part. The conversion to green energy will be a great boon to the economy, and it won't require reduction of living standards. CA has high living standards (unless you can't afford the high cost of housing, which is due to high demand), but it is perhaps the most energy-efficient state in the USA. Greater efficiency is not lower living standards. CA is more prosperous than Texas, which uses the most energy.

[Eric the Green]

(12-23-2019, 01:55 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 08:29 AM)AspieMillennial Wrote: How would the environmental emergency be a high if the people who think there's an environmental emergency want to drastically lower the living standards

The "high" is poorly named and doesn't necessarily mean high living standards.  It just means the winners of the crisis conflict get a high from imposing their ideas on everyone.

That said, I've never seen any evidence that the left actually cares about the environment; they just use it as a political rallying cry.  I'm unconvinced that would convert into genuine useful action on the environment just because of the end of the crisis period.

I'm convinced that it will. I see no reason to think the Left is not genuinely concerned about the environment and climate change. Of course they are. So is anyone who is paying attention, which are mostly the Left now because the Right has been taken over by mass delusion. The Left is always composed of people who have genuine concerns about things, for the most part. The actions begun in the late 4T will continue, just as the 4T wars and revolutions of the past had a momentum of their own toward building the new saeculum.

But I agree the "high" is poorly named. It could also be called "recovery" or "reconstruction." It is a very materially-constructive period, historically. Projects begun in the late 4T continue to be built and organized. It becomes more routine. For example, the air power developed during the war led to passenger jet travel in the late 1950s and early 60s. So this time the threat of climate change will bring about new tech that will have a momentum of development of its own once launched during the 2020s. 

And the winners do get a high off of winning. Think of the euphoria when world war II ended and the following mood of "get happy" and "accentuate the positive." But the losers are exhausted and fall in line, and contribute much by themselves to the consensus and the spirit-death of the 1T, because they are natural conformists. Generally there is a right-wing reaction during the early 1T which will help kill off some of that spirit from the previous saeculum and impose a more moderate consensus. Being a materialist turning, at least so far in the USA, the winner may get high from winning (as Trump also promised to his crowd), but the spoils are empty if the price is a conformist and spirit-dead culture divorced from truly "higher" levels of life, and "consumed" by hidden persuaders and by keeping up with the Joneses in gray flannel suits.

However, just as this 4T had been rather phony and muddled so far, and not as severe, I expect the next 1T to be more lively and activist and less conformist, with a more active and less-repressed Left, perhaps including a Reconstruction era. And I expect the losers will be less consoled and less amenable to the established liberal consensus than those of the 1950s even were. The double rhythm promises something like the "bloody shirt" revivals of post-civil war resentments during the upcoming 1T.

[Warren Dew]

(12-27-2019, 08:58 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(12-26-2019, 07:12 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(12-26-2019, 02:19 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 01:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(12-23-2019, 04:03 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: If the Nationalists win, they won't be able to establish a proper 1T because the elites despise them.

If the Nationalists win, that will mean that most of the elites have been destroyed, and the remaining ones will have been cowed into submission.

That depends on which elites you're addressing.  The wealthy elite are, for all practical purposes, untouchable by the nationalists who rant on about foreigners, not them.  If anything, the wealthy elite are completely happy to  join in the immigrant-bashing, while using their at-risk talents to make millions or Billions for themselves.

The Nationalists would love to take out the Globalist elites.  Soros, Gates and Microsoft's campuses in India, Google and Facebook and their immigrant engineers and managers, I could easily see Nationalists take a wrecking ball to them as the crisis gets more intense.

Thank you for making my point.  Note the entire lack of anyone from the much more typical rightwing wealthy elite.  Where ae the Mercers and Kochs?  Yes, the Nationalists are happy to bash internationalists for being, well, internationalists.  But none of the Nationalists want to tax the extremely wealthy the way they need to be taxed to reduce their stranglehold on the economy … none!

So now you're claiming that Soros and Gates aren't wealthy?  That's some serious self delusion there.