The Coronavirus

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-09-2020, 05:38 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-09-2020, 04:48 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-09-2020, 01:25 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(04-09-2020, 12:13 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The CDC has released new guidelines for keeping critical workers working through the crisis.  They seem similar to what would be needed to restart the economy after the worst of the peeks has passed.  I am curious if anyone thinks they are overkill?

Nope,  the CDC hasn't mandated anything. It's wrong in determining who has the virus.  So where's mention of testing?  I think the mandate should be workers are allowed to be at work, if they test negative for Corona Virus. I'd also add an strict enforcement regime with stiff fines and jail time for  business owners who violate this mandate.  Like a scaled fine schedule.  The fine must hurt whoever violates it in the best place, the bottom line.

Correct.  These are someone from the deep state making their own wishes wistfully public, where it should be someone from the administration, likely the president himself, making it official and punishable.  Testing is one of the things that should be required, among other things.

We don't have testing kits for us yet. The testing kits are all on the front line right now. We have friends who are nurses who work for healthcare clinics. They aren't accepting covid19 patients yet. So, we are pretty on our own at this point.

Yep.  I am fully aware that Trump blew it.  Did you bother to watch Maddow's report on the virus?  But I am talking about what we will have to in some hypothetical future when we are releasing the protective isolation.  Judging by how the hedonistic people are ignoring the isolation, that ethics shift to what is best for the whole rather than best for the individual is being slow to take hold.  This is in part because of a lack of leadership.  It will unfortunately take a while.  Hopefully the states will have tests available from their own sources by then, in spite of Trump's obstruction.

[Arkarch]

(04-09-2020, 06:49 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Yep.  I am fully aware that Trump blew it.  Did you bother to watch Maddow's report on the virus?  But I am talking about what we will have to in some hypothetical future when we are releasing the protective isolation.  Judging by how the hedonistic people are ignoring the isolation, that ethics shift to what is best for the whole rather than best for the individual is being slow to take hold.  This is in part because of a lack of leadership.  It will unfortunately take a while.  Hopefully the states will have tests available from their own sources by then, in spite of Trump's obstruction.

To varying degrees, leadership may be coming from the states.   Andrew Cuomo, Gavin Newsom, Mike Dewine.   In my state of Nevada, Governor Steve Sisolak has been a stern local voice in a Libertarian-oriented region.   Some of these Governors may be the rising stars of 2024 or 2028.

[Eric the Green]

I foresaw that March 20-24 would be a major turning point in history. You can see that these dates correspond to the moment when the trend of the virus in the USA started to go straight up, and it hasn't waned virtually at all. I mentioned in my Feb.17 lecture in Oregon that the charts for March indicated health concerns. Four planets aligned in Capricorn, a sign of the state and executives, at that time, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, and Saturn was moving into Aquarius, sign of legislatures in action. I was surprised though that this virus crisis would persist and still be rising off the charts in April. I thought it would be succeeded by other crises as the 2020s continue.

It seems now that it really is a trigger. Time will tell, but this pandemic has shown beyond all doubt the failure and utter incompetence of the USA as it's now constituted. I have predicted for many decades that the 2020s would see possible revolution and/or civil war in the USA in the 2020s, climaxing in 2025-28.

Now a facebook friend of mine has posted this article in The Atlantic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...wty4oDw0tk

Influenced by the planetary cycles that we both see, my friend writes as he posts this article:

"The 2nd American Revolution is about to begin. It will echo our founding and rhyme with the Civil War. You can bet on it."

quoting the article:

"Fear sweeps the land. Many businesses collapse. Some huge fortunes are made. Panicked consumers stockpile paper, food, and weapons. The government’s reaction is inconsistent and ineffectual. Ordinary commerce grinds to a halt; investors can find no safe assets. Political factionalism grows more intense. Everything falls apart.

This was all as true of revolutionary France in 1789 and 1790 as it is of the United States today. Are we at the beginning of a revolution that has yet to be named? Do we want to be? That we are on the verge of a major transformation seems obvious....."

In my reply I wrote:
In a few months we may be like these people who once had to reckon with "an executive who doesn't act" with a country in peril: https://youtu.be/pq56Kzc3jI4?t=464

and then I wrote this comment, quoting The Atlantic article:
"The men and women who made the French Revolution....had no model to follow, no plans, no platform agreed upon in advance. As the UCLA historian Lynn A. Hunt has argued, they made it up as they went along.....Human beings are responsible both for much of what is wrong and for much of what could be right about the world today. But we have to take responsibility. In hindsight a revolution may look like a single event, but they are never experienced that way. Instead they are extended periods in which the routines of normal life are dislocated and existing rituals lose their meaning. They are deeply unsettling, but they are also periods of great creativity. As some Americans take shelter in their homes from a newly arrived threat and others put their health at risk to combat it, we can all mourn lost certainties, but we can also set about intentionally creating new possibilities. To claim this moment as a revolution is to claim it for human action."

lyrics here (they match this quote very well, to say the least):
https://genius.com/Pete-townshend-lets-s...ion-lyrics

[Bob Butler 54]

CNN reports Lack of coronavirus testing may blunt Trump's planned economic revival

This agrees with my own belief that we will have to have good fast testing to restart the economy, and that those who want to save lives and those who want to restart the economy should be working together towards heavy isolation.

[pbrower2a]

The grim states to date:




For comparison:

Pearl Harbor attack  2335 US
9/11 2977 (not including the hijackers, including non-Americans as victims)
Battle of Gettysburg (three days) 3115 -- Union side only
D-Day  4415 (Allies only)

OK, the good news:



 Not good enough.

On the relevant logarithmic scale:






 All sources are from Wikipedia.

[Bob Butler 54]

After hearing new stories on removing seniors from long term care facilities, I decided to chase it down.  I figured a simple Google on 'remove senior long term' would get a snapshot.  Instead, Google found lots and lots of hits.  Apparently, lots of people are considering it, and if anything it may be too late.

[David Horn]

(04-10-2020, 09:26 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN reports Lack of coronavirus testing may blunt Trump's planned economic revival

This agrees with my own belief that we will have to have good fast testing to restart the economy, and that those who want to save lives and those who want to restart the economy should be working together towards heavy isolation.

It's shameful to say, but many business types, especially those in the financial sector, are so detached from day-to-day life that they don't equate deaths with actual living people.  It's just data, you know.  Fortunately, actual living people don't have that problem, though economic pressure may overcome their fear of getting the illness.  Does that create a huge backlash?  It's hard to say among the Trump loyalists, but others may not have that limitation.

Let's see how the good people of Wisconsin react to the results of their clearly flawed election.  If the vote strongly favors the GOP, as expected, then the degree to which the people are angry, rather than resigned, will tell us a lot.  If it goes against the GOP, then assume this will be last attempt of its type.

[pbrower2a]

(04-12-2020, 09:44 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-10-2020, 09:26 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN reports Lack of coronavirus testing may blunt Trump's planned economic revival

This agrees with my own belief that we will have to have good fast testing to restart the economy, and that those who want to save lives and those who want to restart the economy should be working together towards heavy isolation.

It's shameful to say, but many business types, especially those in the financial sector, are so detached from day-to-day life that they don't equate deaths with actual living people.  It's just data, you know.  Fortunately, actual living people don't have that problem, though economic pressure may overcome their fear of getting the illness.  Does that create a huge backlash?  It's hard to say among the Trump loyalists, but others may not have that limitation.

This said, at the least deaths mean that many loans do not get collected. Such is loss to a lender. I can't say whether Trump's "deplorable" voters would cheer if people not like them did the dying... or whether they see themselves at risk.   

Quote:Let's see how the good people of Wisconsin react to the results of their clearly flawed election.  If the vote strongly favors the GOP, as expected, then the degree to which the people are angry, rather than resigned, will tell us a lot.  If it goes against the GOP, then assume this will be last attempt of its type.

The delayed count makes no sense. But much in current politics also makes no sense.

[Arkarch]

(04-10-2020, 05:06 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I foresaw that March 20-24 would be a major turning point in history. You can see that these dates correspond to the moment when the trend of the virus in the USA started to go straight up, and it hasn't waned virtually at all. I mentioned in my Feb.17 lecture in Oregon that the charts for March indicated health concerns. Four planets aligned in Capricorn, a sign of the state and executives, at that time, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, and Saturn was moving into Aquarius, sign of legislatures in action. I was surprised though that this virus crisis would persist and still be rising off the charts in April. I thought it would be succeeded by other crises as the 2020s continue.

It seems now that it really is a trigger. Time will tell, but this pandemic has shown beyond all doubt the failure and utter incompetence of the USA as it's now constituted. I have predicted for many decades that the 2020s would see possible revolution and/or civil war in the USA in the 2020s, climaxing in 2025-28.

I do agree it is a civil war; but I do not think it will go hot. 

This is consistent with my belief in a super-cycle of Internal Cold (now); External Hot (WW2); Internal Hot (Civil); and External Cold (Am Rev as proxy).  As someone noted, this 4T may have much in common with the Glorious Revolution and follows the pattern noted.   It is possible the Union could fall apart or become protectorate based, with the West Coast, South, Texas, etc going their own way - but as declaratory actions.  Clearly we are not done with this 4T yet.

[pbrower2a]

COVID-19 kills like a Crisis war, as I have shown in several posts ad nauseam.* In the last few days the analogy has almost been to military deaths of the American Civil War. (The death rate is not quite the same, but it is far worse than those per day in the two World Wars).

I see this plague ripping at the seams of American life, destroying much of the complacency that we have had. America used to be admirable in meeting natural disasters (floods, forest fires, earthquakes, hurricanes, and epidemics); we can no longer say that. Sure, Theodore Roosevelt could do little about the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and Fire, but he left the work of rescue and recovery to the only federal institution then available (the Armed Forces) to do the job. Such is the precedent.  

God Help Us  should The Big One (earthquake) strike California, Utah, or the area around the Ohio-Mississippi confluence (New Madrid Quake, 1814). God Help Us should we have an unusually-bad hurricane season. I can expect President Trump to do more to milk a hurricane for political advantage than to serve the victims. Such is his character, and it is already killing people.

Consider this: Obama had no problem with dealing with Republican governors in preparation for hurricanes, let alone the aftermath. Human life is more important than partisan politics, dammit!

*OK, I may nauseate people with such a comparison of daily death tolls closer to those of the American Civil War as an analogue to the American Civil War than to anything else... but do you realize what really nauseates me? Trump incompetence in meeting this Crisis.

[pbrower2a]

So who said that a Crisis had to be a war?

[David Horn]

(04-13-2020, 10:03 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: So who said that a Crisis had to be a war?

John Xenakis is the primary exponent of the crisis war, and a firm believer in the necessity of them.  In fact, he hangs generational dynamics on that premise.

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-13-2020, 10:37 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-13-2020, 10:03 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: So who said that a Crisis had to be a war?

John Xenakis is the primary exponent of the crisis war, and a firm believer in the necessity of them.  In fact, he hangs generational dynamics on that premise.

Where I would say nukes make the Crisis war obsolete.  While in the Industrial Age leaders and elites would start a war trivially, in this time the elites would lose influence and status, and make sure the leaders don’t threaten their position.  In the Information Age, the Crisis war is virtually obsolete.  That was why I was trying to rework the S&H theory to figure out how the cycles world work without a Trigger or a Regeneracy.  Would the Awakening become the turning with the radical change?  Can one change through democracy rather than conflict?  Should we look to the Conscious Revolution as the only Awakening that gives us an example of how it works in the Information Age?

But then along came the Coronavirus…  I would not guarantee that a Trigger will happen in every period that the Prophet - Nomad - Civic generational alignment occurs.  This time, if you consider September 11th, we had two such Tiggers.  The first failed to change the culture.  The second?  It seems too early to tell for certain.  Will the old patriotic swing from selfishness to loyalty to the country still happen without a war to compel the change?  That does not guarantee we will get even one Trigger next time around.

[Bob Butler 54]

CNN evaluates a conspiracy theory that the Coronavirus was created in the lab.  The scientists are skeptical of the claim.

[beechnut79]

(04-13-2020, 04:54 AM)Arkarch Wrote:

(04-10-2020, 05:06 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I foresaw that March 20-24 would be a major turning point in history. You can see that these dates correspond to the moment when the trend of the virus in the USA started to go straight up, and it hasn't waned virtually at all. I mentioned in my Feb.17 lecture in Oregon that the charts for March indicated health concerns. Four planets aligned in Capricorn, a sign of the state and executives, at that time, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, and Saturn was moving into Aquarius, sign of legislatures in action. I was surprised though that this virus crisis would persist and still be rising off the charts in April. I thought it would be succeeded by other crises as the 2020s continue.

It seems now that it really is a trigger. Time will tell, but this pandemic has shown beyond all doubt the failure and utter incompetence of the USA as it's now constituted. I have predicted for many decades that the 2020s would see possible revolution and/or civil war in the USA in the 2020s, climaxing in 2025-28.

I do agree it is a civil war; but I do not think it will go hot. 

This is consistent with my belief in a super-cycle of Internal Cold (now); External Hot (WW2); Internal Hot (Civil); and External Cold (Am Rev as proxy).  As someone noted, this 4T may have much in common with the Glorious Revolution and follows the pattern noted.   It is possible the Union could fall apart or become protectorate based, with the West Coast, South, Texas, etc going their own way - but as declaratory actions.  Clearly we are not done with this 4T yet.

Don’t know about the 48 contingent, but can foresee the possibility that Alaska might join Canada and Hawaii becoming its own nation. If the southern states tried to reform the Confederacy, might they at least be enlightened enough not to attempt to revive slavery?

[David Horn]

(04-13-2020, 11:27 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-13-2020, 10:37 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-13-2020, 10:03 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: So who said that a Crisis had to be a war?

John Xenakis is the primary exponent of the crisis war, and a firm believer in the necessity of them.  In fact, he hangs generational dynamics on that premise.

Where I would say nukes make the Crisis war obsolete.  While in the Industrial Age leaders and elites would start a war trivially, in this time the elites would lose influence and status, and make sure the leaders don’t threaten their position.  In the Information Age, the Crisis war is virtually obsolete.  That was why I was trying to rework the S&H theory to figure out how the cycles world work without a Trigger or a Regeneracy.  Would the Awakening become the turning with the radical change?  Can one change through democracy rather than conflict?  Should we look to the Conscious Revolution as the only Awakening that gives us an example of how it works in the Information Age?

But then along came the Coronavirus…  I would not guarantee that a Trigger will happen in every period that the Prophet - Nomad - Civic generational alignment occurs.  This time, if you consider September 11th, we had two such Triggers.  The first failed to change the culture.  The second?  It seems too early to tell for certain.  Will the old patriotic swing from selfishness to loyalty to the country still happen without a war to compel the change?  That does not guarantee we will get even one Trigger next time around.

When the great powers decided to retreat from fighting wars by the Marquis of Queensbury Rules, the idea of total war emerged in earnest. With total war, all tools are authorized, so WWI gave us poison gas and WWII gave us nukes.  Note the lack of poison gas use in WWII: lesson learned. If we assume that nukes are truly off the table as well, we're back in an era of constrained war … assuming we actually engage in a major one at all.  I agree that the best strategy is avoidance, with proxy wars being a less fulfilling but safer substitute, and that's how it's been played so far.  

And as you said, along came Coronavirus.  Can we agree that the threat is adequately serious? If so, then is this a reasonable proxy for the war we wish to avoid?  Can we rally to the cause?  So far, it has the feel of a proxy civil war, with each "side" having apoplexy about the other side's plan to solve the crisis.  It's an odd configuration, with the virus on one side, and the competing political actors arrayed against one another on the other side.

Is this the new crisis modality?

[Arkarch]

(04-13-2020, 12:26 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(04-13-2020, 04:54 AM)Arkarch Wrote:

(04-10-2020, 05:06 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I foresaw that March 20-24 would be a major turning point in history. You can see that these dates correspond to the moment when the trend of the virus in the USA started to go straight up, and it hasn't waned virtually at all. I mentioned in my Feb.17 lecture in Oregon that the charts for March indicated health concerns. Four planets aligned in Capricorn, a sign of the state and executives, at that time, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, and Saturn was moving into Aquarius, sign of legislatures in action. I was surprised though that this virus crisis would persist and still be rising off the charts in April. I thought it would be succeeded by other crises as the 2020s continue.

It seems now that it really is a trigger. Time will tell, but this pandemic has shown beyond all doubt the failure and utter incompetence of the USA as it's now constituted. I have predicted for many decades that the 2020s would see possible revolution and/or civil war in the USA in the 2020s, climaxing in 2025-28.

I do agree it is a civil war; but I do not think it will go hot. 

This is consistent with my belief in a super-cycle of Internal Cold (now); External Hot (WW2); Internal Hot (Civil); and External Cold (Am Rev as proxy).  As someone noted, this 4T may have much in common with the Glorious Revolution and follows the pattern noted.   It is possible the Union could fall apart or become protectorate based, with the West Coast, South, Texas, etc going their own way - but as declaratory actions.  Clearly we are not done with this 4T yet.

Don’t know about the 48 contingent, but can foresee the possibility that Alaska might join Canada and Hawaii becoming its own nation. If the southern states tried to reform the Confederacy, might they at least be enlightened enough not to attempt to revive slavery?

Some would say that - in effect - slavery never went away.

[pbrower2a]

(04-13-2020, 11:27 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-13-2020, 10:37 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-13-2020, 10:03 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: So who said that a Crisis had to be a war?

John Xenakis is the primary exponent of the crisis war, and a firm believer in the necessity of them.  In fact, he hangs generational dynamics on that premise.

Where I would say nukes make the Crisis war obsolete.  While in the Industrial Age leaders and elites would start a war trivially, in this time the elites would lose influence and status, and make sure the leaders don’t threaten their position.  In the Information Age, the Crisis war is virtually obsolete.  That was why I was trying to rework the S&H theory to figure out how the cycles world work without a Trigger or a Regeneracy.  Would the Awakening become the turning with the radical change?  Can one change through democracy rather than conflict?  Should we look to the Consciousness Revolution as the only Awakening that gives us an example of how it works in the Information Age?

The ideal position for a vindictive winner of a Crisis war is that the defeated people are either exterminated or reduced to slaves. The winner wants the assets of the former owners (typically farmland, buildings, livestock, houses, mines, and factories) for the veterans to 'settle'. Supposedly the neutron-bomb was perfect for that except for killing the livestock. If the winner isn't so vindictive, then it is enough that those defeated (unless criminals such as those who commit genocide or mistreat soldiers) have no cause for further struggle. The dirty thermonuclear bomb left nothing behind for the victor but ashes, rubble, and dying people. 

The Consciousness Revolution began when the Information Age was in its infancy... and found information technology. Heck, fractals make a wonderful substitute for LSD...

Quote:But then along came the Coronavirus…  I would not guarantee that a Trigger will happen in every period that the Prophet - Nomad - Civic generational alignment occurs.  This time, if you consider September 11th, we had two such Triggers.  The first failed to change the culture.  The second?  It seems too early to tell for certain.  Will the old patriotic swing from selfishness to loyalty to the country still happen without a war to compel the change?  That does not guarantee we will get even one Trigger next time around.

The Coronavirus acts much like a neutron bomb except for slower action by killing huge numbers of people, if not all in one place (as war does). It functions much like "inheritance powder" except leaving no traces of arsenic or thallium to point to a poisoner.  It leaves assets behind, including livestock, crops, real estate, securities, cash, and infrastructure. But even that fails to solve one of the critical issues of our time -- how to generate prosperity in the absence of scarcity that serves as an impetus for more productivity. 

We have little idea of what the toll will be. Figure, though, that much of the seeming prosperity of a few Americans -- economic rents -- will shrink greatly.

[Eric the Green]

Coronavirus Cases:
1,917,209
Deaths:
119,090
Recovered:
441,232

560,322
Cases which had an outcome

441,232 (79%)
Recovered / Discharged

119,090 (21%)
Deaths

Country / total cases / new cases / total deaths / new deaths (9 PM GMT)

World 1,917,209 +64,952 119,090 +4,896
USA 583,411 +23,111 23,462 +1,357
Spain 169,628 +2,797 17,628 +419
Italy 159,516 +3,153 20,465 +566
France 136,779 +4,188 14,967 +574
Germany 128,208 +354 3,043 +21
UK 88,621 +4,342 11,329 +717
China 82,160 +108 3,341 +2
Iran 73,303 +1,617 4,585 +111
Turkey 61,049 +4,093 1,296 +98
Belgium 30,589 +942 3,903 +303
Netherlands 26,551 +964 2,823 +86
Switzerland 25,688 +273 1,138 +32
Canada 25,552 +1,169 767 +50
Brazil 23,430 +1,238 1,328 +105
Russia 18,328 +2,558 148 +18
Portugal 16,934 +349 535 +31
Austria 14,041 +96 368 +18
Israel 11,586 +441 116 +13
Sweden 10,948 +465 919 +20
Ireland 10,647 +992 365 +31
S. Korea 10,537 +25 217 +3
India 10,453 +1,248 358 +27
Peru 9,784 +2,265 193

[Bob Butler 54]

It seems both coasts have formed alliances to replace the missing federal response to the Coronavirus.  Trump might try to put the economy ahead of people, but the states put the limitations in place, so the states now have the authority to release.

CNN has an article on the two alliances, one on each coast.