The Coronavirus

[Classic-Xer]

(04-29-2020, 05:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Many politicians and the president failed to do all of the above. They did not issue shutdowns and social distancing rules in time, they did not provide protective equipment and masks in time, they did not and still do not provide testing and tracking. The feds alone can do this adequately. And waiting to "figure things out" was the problem. That reminds me of what Trump said when he issued his first policy as president, his travel bans which he claimed were needed until "we find out just what's going on!" Remember that? There was never anything to find out; it was an excuse to appeal to his xenophobic fans.

Washington State did "shut down," of course, as I described it above. So did California. Both are doing better per capita than other states that were hit hard. They were #1 and #2 originally in total cases, and now CA is #5 and Washington #16 in total cases during the pandemic. Santa Clara County CA was the first in the nation to get infected, and now its total case curve is downward. It's not even in the top 50 counties anymore in total cases.

I going to agree with you. I now believe that COVID19 is a racist disease that mainly targets minority populations. We were told that the disease didn't care about race but that was wrong based on the results that we've seen so far. As I recall, liberals were the first to cry racism like they always do these days and the first to side with the Chinese ruling class and their big tech masters when Trump imposed travel/import bans early on. Now, I don't blame Warren based on his race for China's obvious failure to adequately inform us about the severity of their issue prior to it's failure to adequately contain it within their country. I don't blame you or Obama for being dumb enough to trust them, go a long with or latch on to their propaganda and support/side with them either. You're all leftists pf some sort and leftists aren't viewed by most as being that sharp these days.

[Classic-Xer]

(04-29-2020, 05:47 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: We have now surpassed the death toll of American military losses in the Vietnam war. Next stop? American involvement in World War I. Many of the military deaths in WWI were from influenza.

All in about two months, and all under one President who certainly botched the response so badly that state governments have taken the lead in response.

I wonder what you'd be saying about Clinton these days had she won the election and stuck with the status quo and continued to do nothing about the sluggish economy.

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-29-2020, 09:53 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: I going to agree with you. I now believe that COVID19 is a racist disease that mainly targets minority populations. We were told that the disease didn't care about race but that was wrong based on the results that we've seen so far.

Would you care to link to a source that verifies this? I assumed this was a disease that didn't target one race over another, and hadn't made race an issue to speak of on that. I could believe the US health care system gives an advantage to those over the poverty line, but had again not made race much of an issue. Yes, the US has a problem with health care, but this doesn't seem the time to push that issue. The system is just swamped.

With Trump advising internal poisons, I'm just not trusting sourceless stuff right now.

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-29-2020, 10:01 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 05:47 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: We have now surpassed the death toll of American military losses in the Vietnam war. Next stop? American involvement in World War I. Many of the military deaths in WWI were from influenza.

All in about two months, and all under one President who certainly botched the response so badly that state governments have taken the lead in response.

I wonder what you'd be saying about Clinton these days had she won the election and stuck with the status quo and continued to do nothing about the sluggish economy.

I'm not sure the Republican senate would have obstructed the first woman president quite as much as they obstructed the first black president. I'm inclined to think they would. They have gotten in the habit of being partisan and obstructionist. Still, she is pretty persistent and knows how to get things through Congress.

I guess we will never know.

[pbrower2a]

(04-29-2020, 10:01 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 05:47 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: We have now surpassed the death toll of American military losses in the Vietnam war. Next stop? American involvement in World War I. Many of the military deaths in WWI were from influenza.

All in about two months, and all under one President who certainly botched the response so badly that state governments have taken the lead in response.

I wonder what you'd be saying about Clinton these days had she won the election and stuck with the status quo and continued to do nothing about the sluggish economy.

If she had behaved as Trump did toward the Coronavirus she would deserve the same opprobrium. I doubt that she would have. As it is, America got hit later -- but much harder. Americans have chosen to take an economic blow and forgo many activities that they cherish so that they not get COVID-19. So life goes when most people see themselves in a shared danger. 

Further need I say nothing more.

[Bob Butler 54]

CNN gives a report from Wuhan.  Apparently, manufacturing might be easier to restart than service sector jobs.  People are hesitant to go out if they don’t have to.  Small shops may open, not attract customers or profit, and close again to stop the bleeding.  There is fear of a second wave, but it has not materialized yet.

[pbrower2a]

(04-29-2020, 09:53 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 05:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Many politicians and the president failed to do all of the above. They did not issue shutdowns and social distancing rules in time, they did not provide protective equipment and masks in time, they did not and still do not provide testing and tracking. The feds alone can do this adequately. And waiting to "figure things out" was the problem. That reminds me of what Trump said when he issued his first policy as president, his travel bans which he claimed were needed until "we find out just what's going on!" Remember that? There was never anything to find out; it was an excuse to appeal to his xenophobic fans.

Washington State did "shut down," of course, as I described it above. So did California. Both are doing better per capita than other states that were hit hard. They were #1 and #2 originally in total cases, and now CA is #5 and Washington #16 in total cases during the pandemic. Santa Clara County CA was the first in the nation to get infected, and now its total case curve is downward. It's not even in the top 50 counties anymore in total cases.

I going to agree with you. I now believe that COVID19 is a racist disease that mainly targets minority populations. We were told that the disease didn't care about race but that was wrong based on the results that we've seen so far. As I recall, liberals were the first to cry racism like they always do these days and the first to side with the  Chinese ruling class and their big tech  masters when Trump imposed travel/import bans early on. Now, I don't blame Warren based on his race  for China's obvious failure to adequately inform us about the severity of their issue prior to it's failure to adequately contain it within their country. I don't blame you or Obama for being dumb enough to trust them,  go a long with or latch on to  their propaganda  and support/side with them either. You're all leftists pf some sort and leftists aren't viewed by most as being that sharp these days.

If it isn't political responses -- in big cities, blacks and other minorities are more likely to use crowded mass transportation. The Angel of Death deplaned after infecting lots of frequent fliers at JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark Airports and then started riding the subways, city buses, and commuter trains. In New York City the stay at home order effectively keeps people from ending up in the usual crowds in which a respiratory pandemic has a chance to spread like fire in dry brush. 

The People's Republic of China isn't a liberal favorite. It proved excessively secretive about the first outbreak and handled it ineptly. When it started killing prominent people in China and Iran liberals like me recognized this disease as a monstrosity. Well-off people do not die of respiratory infections unless  as a coup de grace while someone endures another fatal condition (cancer, congestive heart disease, AIDS).

Crowding and poor health habits -- and above all, failing to take due care during the pandemic -- make people especially vulnerable. Do you realize how crowded the second-class cabin of a jetliner is?  I have never ridden first class, as I have never been able to afford it. But so are certain streets in New York City on some days. So is well-used public transportation. In such a country as Iran in which mass religious gatherings served to spread COVID-19. Finally we have found COVID-19 killing in nursing homes, veterans' hospitals, prisons, jails, and now some food-processing places. Schools were avoided, and most churches locked their doors.  

Let's put it this way -- at a certain time, going to Lourdes for a miracle would have been an excellent way to contract COVID-19. Saudi Arabia banned the Hajj out of fear that one of the Pillars of Islam would kill participants. 

I'll say this -- I'm not taking chances. I am guessing that getting COVID-19 is about as risky as drunk driving.

[Eric the Green]

The USA now has more total cases than the next 5 bonified European nations. It has 5 to 20 times more new cases today. So much for Warren's claim that Trumpamerica is doing better than the EU and Russia.

[Classic-Xer]

(04-29-2020, 10:21 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: If she had behaved as Trump did toward the Coronavirus she would deserve the same opprobrium. I doubt that she would have. As it is, America got hit later -- but much harder. Americans have chosen to take an economic blow and forgo many activities that they cherish so that they not get COVID-19. So life goes when most people see themselves in a shared danger. 

Further need I say nothing more.

I think you would be busy working to defend her and making excuses for her and blaming me for her shortcomings myself. So, what do you think of Andrew Cuomo forcing a bunch of densely populated old folks homes to keep their COVID19 folks instead of transferring them to hospitals or a military ship and a make shift hospital?

I'm not that concerned about the COVID19 threat myself. I'm more concerned about the economic fallout and the heavy financial toll that it's already taken on the State of Minnesota myself at this point. I mean, the state is only 4-5 billion in the hole and only about a month behind its neighboring red states in economic recovery at this point. For all I know, I may have already had COVID19 and recovered naturally. As I've mentioned before, the perceived danger isn't as mutually shared as liberals would think or hope at this point.

[Classic-Xer]

(04-29-2020, 10:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The USA now has more total cases than the next 5 bonified European nations. It has 5 to 20 times more new cases today. So much for Warren's claim that Trumpamerica is doing better than the EU and Russia.

How is the USA doing compared to LSE (Liberal States of Europe)?

[Eric the Green]

(04-29-2020, 04:46 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: It is also possible that Donald Trump is doing far more damage to the Republican Party than many of us can imagine.  In the aftermath we may end up with omnibus politics (the one who follows Biden will most likely to be a Mature Reactive like Washington, Grant, Cleveland, Truman, Eisenhower, and Obama; indeed I can say that the next effective conservative President will act much more like Obama than like Trump. I have loved to compare Eisenhower to Obama for temperament and character; such is the Mature Reactive, and as the oldest of them enter their sixties, such is what we are likely to get before any Kennedy-like Civic offering a 2040's version of a New Frontier. 

Boomers had their chance to give America a Churchill-like, FDR-like, or Lincoln-like leader. Instead they gave us the bad Dubya, the middling Clinton, and the horrible Trump. Time is running out for Boomer contributions to the American political heritage, and Boomers proved that they could bring about the worst in their tendencies with little of their best in public life. Culture? OK-- we will remember Steven Spielberg.

I think the cycles still give time for a blue boomer leader to appear, and to beat Biden's veep (if Biden wins) to become the nominee and the new president in 2024. Or to throw out Trump/Pence in 2024 if Trump wins or cancels the election. That would most likely be a late or "Jones" boomer like Landrieu or McAuliffe. Whoever the Democrats pick, (s)he would have to overcome an advantage in an election for the challenger indicated by the new moon before the election, if Biden won in 2020. However, that indicator may become less reliable as mail and early voting stretches out the time before the election, much as it was before 1848. In case of a Trump coup in Jan. 2021, or a delayed election, just what happens after 2020 will be uncertain, of course.

Some indicators show a smoother time after 2025, in which case it might be called a 1T. Others show that the 4T will continue until 2029, including the saeculum as interpreted by Neil Howe, as well as the 84-year Uranus Return cycle which has been reliable since the founding of Jamestown. That would indicate that it will not be quite the time yet for a Mature Reactive in 2025. But the years after 2025 could still see a positive outcome developing after the rocky years of the early 2020s that we are entering.

That's not how I have seen things unfolding until now. I thought the decade would unfold like the sixties, in the sense of the reform era followed by a more rocky and riotous time. But the aspects of the late 2020s are smoother, so it could actually happen the other way around too. That will probably be decided by how the 2020 election goes and what happens at inauguration time regarding Trump.

If the cycle indicated by Neptune entering cardinal (solstice and equinox) zodiac signs continues, then the first Alpha-wave Prophets will not be born until 2025 or so. Pew may even call them Generation B instead. But Strauss and Howe fans will soon realize that people born from 2025 on will be idealist/prophets, much like the Missionaries, who also were born with Neptune in the missionary sign Aries, starting in 1861 at the stroke of Ft. Sumpter. Neptune entered Cancer in 1901 (GIs) and Libra in 1943 (Boomers).

I expect some of us old geezer boomers will still be stuck here in the 2030s debating with younger generations about whether "Gen B" are really Gen A prophets or not. Not to mention in the late 2020s when we'll be debating whether the late 2020s are a 4T or a 1T. You heard it here. See you then, fellow boomers, Xers, Yers and Zers.

And remember that a couple of months ago here, I said that we were now, after all these years, on the edge of entering the crisis for real. We have certainly crossed the threshold into the full-blown crisis now. If COVID19 continues to bring so many new cases and deaths as it is still bringing to the USA now, then premature economy-openings will certainly create a second wave and Trump will be ousted as a result. If somehow the crisis abates sooner and the economy recovers, then Americans' short memories may allow the drumphead to squeeze through again, helped by more voter suppression. That won't end the 4T, of course, because Trump's rulership is itself a huge crisis, and his ego will expand it beyond what we can even imagine now.

[Eric the Green]

(04-30-2020, 01:53 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 10:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The USA now has more total cases than the next 5 bonified European nations. It has 5 to 20 times more new cases today. So much for Warren's claim that Trumpamerica is doing better than the EU and Russia.

How is the USA doing compared to LSE (Liberal States of Europe)?

That should be obvious; the major EU nations hit hard by the virus so far are Spain, Italy, France and Germany. Russia is the 5th one with a rapidly-expanding crisis, but whose case numbers may be inflated by a large number of tests being made there. The smaller nations of course also have a smaller number of cases. Sweden used the herd immunity strategy and has more cases and deaths than Norway and Denmark where cases are no longer expanding very much. All together the USA has now more cases than all of the LSE, and as I said, the rate of new cases and deaths in the USA are far higher, so the gap will increase. Trump USA is the epicenter of the virus and the shame of the world.

The brexited UK also has expanding cases, since it began treating the virus with herd immunity instead of quarantines and shutdowns; a strategy which almost killed its Trump-clone leader who declared the strategy. It has now passed Germany, the most populous EU country, which used a testing and shut-down strategy and has far fewer deaths than the other major EU countries or the UK. The high number of cases recorded in Germany also reflected the higher number of tests made there.

The USA so far has fewer cases per capita made than the EU countries, and if testing is ever ramped up in the USA, that will further inflate the case numbers but may decrease the daily death count.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Blazkovitz]

(04-30-2020, 04:49 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: the first Alpha-wave Prophets will not be born until 2025 or so. Pew may even call them Generation B instead. But Strauss and Howe fans will soon realize that people born from 2025 on will be idealist/prophets, much like the Missionaries

Pew made a cardinal mistake starting the Millennial generation too early, because they considered the Gregorian year 2000 terribly significant. Thus Millennial traits got confused with Xennial traits. Then they started "gen Z" in 1995, lumping together Civics and early wave Artists because both lack Nomad traits. The "generation A" they start in 2012, represents core Artists, parallel to true Silents born in the 1930s.

2025 is a good provisional beginning date for generation B, the neo-Missionaries, which might be called Artemisians if the Artemis program becomes real. Artemis, the goddess of wild nature, is a good patron for romantic rebels against the 21st century.

[Eric the Green]

Treatments and antibodies

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-an...unreliable

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-30-2020, 05:01 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The USA so far has fewer cases per capita made than the EU countries, and if testing is ever ramped up in the USA, that will further inflate the case numbers but may decrease the daily death count.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Another way to count things is cases per million.  This measures the quality of the protection without skewing for size.  This puts the US about even with the big countries of Europe.

France 2,550
Germany 2,434
Italy 3,367
Spain 5,067
UK 2,434
USA 3,126

[David Horn]

(04-29-2020, 10:12 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:53 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: I going to agree with you. I now believe that COVID19 is a racist disease that mainly targets minority populations. We were told that the disease didn't care about race but that was wrong based on the results that we've seen so far.

Would you care to link to a source that verifies this?  I assumed this was a disease that didn't target one race over another, and hadn't made race an issue to speak of on that.  I could believe the US health care system gives an advantage to those over the poverty line, but had again not made race much of an issue.  Yes, the US has a problem with health care, but this doesn't seem the time to push that issue.  The system is just swamped.

With Trump advising internal poisons, I'm just not trusting sourceless stuff right now.

My understanding of the racial and, in the case of Latinx sufferers, ethnic impacts on health: once you factor for things like health insurance and housing/work density, the impacts more or less disappear.  If there is actually a genetic component, I'm unaware of it.  Women do better do to their XX chromosome benefit but suffer more autoimmune disease that puts them at greater risk.  That's it for genetics, as far as I know.

[Warren Dew]

(04-30-2020, 10:44 AM)David Horn Wrote: My understanding of the racial and, in the case of Latinx sufferers, ethnic impacts on health: once you factor for things like health insurance and housing/work density, the impacts more or less disappear.

A link to any study that shows that would be appreciated.  While it's a tenable hypothesis, in the case of the much higher rate among blacks, I haven't seen anything clearly showing the difference to be entirely genetic or entirely environmental. It's also possible that darker skin and the associated lower vitamin D levels makes the immune response less effective; it would be interesting to see an analysis examining and perhaps disproving that.

In the case of East Asians, I briefly entertained the hypothesis that the reason Pacific Rim countries did so well was because the virus had been bioengineered to be milder for them, but East Asians have the same rate in the US as whites, so that disproved the genetic theory in that case.

[Warren Dew]

(04-29-2020, 10:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The USA now has more total cases than the next 5 bonified European nations. It has 5 to 20 times more new cases today. So much for Warren's claim that Trumpamerica is doing better than the EU and Russia.

Those 5 European countries have about the same population as the 50 US states.  Yet, the US has only about half as many deaths.

The fact that the US has more cases just shows how much better our testing program is than the average in Europe.

If that reflects on Trump, it reflects very positively.

[Warren Dew]

(04-29-2020, 05:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Most nations and US states have shut down non-essential businesses and issued shelter-in-place orders.

At least you understand that those two things are different things, unlike Bob.  You are, however, incorrect about the fact.  South Korea had no blanket shut downs of businesses before their outbreak had already subsided.  Masks and perhaps better attention to hygiene are the only obvious candidates for why Pacific Rim nations did better, though South Korea also benefited from an annual school shutdown that happened at a good time.

I have surgical style masks that I ordered a month ago.  I have another pack of 50 on order for a month from now, as well as a few KN-95 masks.  These were all through Amazon.

If you don't want to sew for yourself, you can get cloth masks on Etsy with much shorter shipping times.

[David Horn]

(04-30-2020, 11:58 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 05:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Most nations and US states have shut down non-essential businesses and issued shelter-in-place orders.

At least you understand that those two things are different things, unlike Bob.  You are, however, incorrect about the fact.  South Korea had no blanket shut downs of businesses before their outbreak had already subsided.  Masks and perhaps better attention to hygiene are the only obvious candidates for why Pacific Rim nations did better, though South Korea also benefited from an annual school shutdown that happened at a good time.

I have surgical style masks that I ordered a month ago.  I have another pack of 50 on order for a month from now, as well as a few KN-95 masks.  These were all through Amazon.

If you don't want to sew for yourself, you can get cloth masks on Etsy with much shorter shipping times.

Are you serious? South Korea got on the job starting day one, and kept the problem from getting started in the first place. That's no longer an option for us. If we had been testing, contact tracing and isolating back when the Donald was saying things would take care of themselves, we might have been able to do it here too.