The Coronavirus

[Warren Dew]

For those with access, a really beautiful graphical illustration of how the virus spread around the world here:

https://www.wsj.com/graphics/coronavirus...lead_pos10

[Classic-Xer]

(04-30-2020, 07:42 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Did President Trump really need to make that "perfect phone call"?  John Bolton (someone that I dislike) called it "a drug deal" -- which is about a contemptuous as one can get toward a gross blunder and literal crime. 

I've never been a fan of Bolton myself. Did you read his book and learn if the so called "drug deal" was really as bad as it sounded? I dunno, typical business as usual stuff doesn't bother me much these days. I'm pretty sure the stuff related to Biden and his kid that we watched during the impeachment isn't going to bother you enough to stop you from voting for him. I'm sure the idea of him making millions while in office isn't enough either. I doubt the sexual assault stuff related to him won't be enough either. The liberal gals who want to be his running mate have already decided she's lying and he's innocent without a public trial. Good old irony. It's to bad that you're unable to see it.

[pbrower2a]

(04-30-2020, 11:13 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 07:42 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Did President Trump really need to make that "perfect phone call"?  John Bolton (someone that I dislike) called it "a drug deal" -- which is about a contemptuous as one can get toward a gross blunder and literal crime. 

I've never been a fan of Bolton myself. Did you read his book and learn if the so called "drug deal" was really as bad as it sounded? I dunno, typical business as usual stuff doesn't bother me much these days. I'm pretty sure the stuff related to Biden and his kid that we watched during the impeachment isn't going to bother you enough to stop you from voting for him. I'm sure the idea of him making millions while in office isn't enough either. I doubt the sexual assault stuff related to him won't  be enough either. The liberal gals who want to be his running mate have already decided she's lying and he's innocent without a public trial. Good old  irony. It's to bad that you're unable to see it.

A drug deal is something simple, but  terribly wrong, illegal, and disgusting. Think of this: crime typically attracts people whose material desires far exceed their talents. Maybe criminals are likely to see crime as a thrill as readily as I consider it a scary deed. Most crooks, including drug traffickers are dolts.  Usually there is plenty of low-paying work tailor-made for people of limited or misplaced talent. 

I have been a substitute school teacher, and I once gave some career advice to an under-achiever who was leafing through a sportswear and sporting goods catalog instead of doing his assignment.  In essence, there are people who make a good living in the sportswear and sporting-goods business, but they need develop their language skills so that they can communicate with people and good math skills so that they can keep up with what they are doing. So what did that malingerer tell me?

OK, first one gets a job at a fast-food place that pays much less than a living wage, but consider what one can learn in such a job. One can get good work habits such as being at the worksite before the job is scheduled in case traffic intervenes,  taking care of grooming and cleanliness, kissing up to managers and customers, showing gratitude for the tiniest of things done for one, giving up pleasure for work, and learning the survival skill of humility that is never a natural phenomenon, following all orders cheerfully, and smiling despite all the nastiness in one's life -- as in do not take your problems to work. In return you learn to budget time and money and you get a variety of tasks. Over a short time one learns what one likes more and dislikes more and what one has a particular knack. Some people better like preparing food; some more like cleaning; some better like dealing with customers; some better like handling materials; some prefer paperwork. Specialists fare better than generalists in our economy. In the mean time many people must learn to appreciate poverty as a blessing better than even greater poverty and suffer with a smile. Such is our plutocracy at work. 

After a year or so in such a place one has shown that one might do better else where one finally gets a chance. If I am an employer I consider the ability to hold on for dear life to a crappy job with low pay evidence of some fitness for the demands that come with the job -- any job. 

I can make more money selling drugs!

So what about the fellow who deals drugs? It gets one easy money early, but it doesn't teach any good habits. Drug dealers get robbed and killed by other criminals, and of course they get caught. After a prison term they are practically obliged to take the worst jobs available -- low-paying, dangerous dead-end jobs. At least "Chez Mac" is a reasonably-safe place in which to work. No skills are learned dealing drugs.  

Bolton's book is yet to be released anyway. I guess book publishing is a non-essential activity. Calling the deed of people in the Presidency "a drug deal" is unflattering in the extreme. After all books are the sort of items that people are likely to spread the infamous virus by breathing upon them. For good reason libraries are closed.  

What about Hunter Biden? What Trump asked for a public statement that the son of the former VP was under investigation, which would have been intended to derail the Biden campaign. Well, that  is what Nixon's dirty tricks were intended to do to Edmund Muskie in 1972 when Nixon thought that he could lose. Whether Nixon was going to win without cheating or not is immaterial. In any event a successful prosecution is best done as secretively as possible so that it lets the suspect think that he is charmed if he isn't or perhaps do behaviors that suggest guilt -- like attempted flight or an attempt to conceal evidence.

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-30-2020, 11:03 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 07:35 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I note how many Asian countries had encountered the SARS and MERS epidemics had planned for future outbreaks.  The plans seemed to have worked, in spite of a few mistakes, and in contrast to Trump dismissing our planners.

Wrong.  The "ME" in MERS stands for the Middle East, which is not the same as Asia, as you may not be aware.  Most Pacific Rim countries have seen at least one change of government since SARS.

To the extent there was a benefit, it was from most of the citizens having been through it before with SARS, and acting before the governments could interfere.  Japan and Taiwan did have early restrictions on travel from China, but South Korea missed the boat on that.

Wrong.  South Korea had the world’s largest MERS outbreak outside the Middle East.  They learned from that outbreak.  I picked that up from a post that you yourself made, but apparently absorbed only the parts that agreed with your ideology.  Wiki noted that "After the outbreak, South Korea developed a system to rapidly expand testing capabilities during future disease outbreaks. This has been credited as a reason for South Korea's widespread testing and effective response to the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic."

While there was indeed a change in government, South Korea did not abandon their pandemic response protocols in the switch, as Trump did in getting rid of Obama's pandemic planners without naming replacements.

I should note that while Hong Kong too made plans ahead of the pandemic and were considered a success in their initial response, they are very population dense and have a large division of wealth.  Many of their poor live in coffin homes, incredibly small apartments, making attempts at isolation extremely difficult.  Once the disease took hold there, the plans to keep the virus out were bypassed.  Their plans did not include enough testing to isolate an outbreak in the coffin homes, much the same problem that Trump is facing in opening the US without sufficient tests.  Their plans which were initially considered good are now going into another phase where the 'keep it out' strategy gives way to the reality that the disease is already in the population.

The two plans were just different.  Hong Kong depended primarily on closing the borders, on keeping the bug out.  South Korea also planned on testing, that should the bug get in to rapidly detect, trace and isolate.  Either plan can work, but using both plans produces better results.

Of course, Trump prefers to use neither sort of plan.  The virus is obviously already in the country, and the tests are still unavailable.

[David Horn]

(04-30-2020, 03:49 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 03:35 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: You still think he can learn?  You must be further gone than I thought.  

I think he's shown that he's able to learn better than all of you at this point. Good luck with living under the Progressives and good luck with keeping up with all the taxes and added costs that are going to be imposed on you, your property, your retirement funds and so forth.

He's running the same tired playbook he's run his entire life.  What has he learned?  And for the record, I know you won't believe that reducing inequality will make you richer -- even when you taxes go up, so I won't waste my key strokes making the argument.

[David Horn]

(04-30-2020, 04:52 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 01:00 PM)David Horn Wrote: Here's a pretty good synopsis of what South Korea did and when.

Much better documentation of the actual facts are here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coron...outh_Korea

That looks like a success story to me.  They had their highest new-case day in February, when the Trumpster was still pretending it would all go away.

[David Horn]

(04-30-2020, 07:22 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 07:08 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: We're only concerned about taxes. Are you sure about that? You guys seem way more concerned about taxation than us. We are more concerned about individual wealth than taxation like you guys. I get the impression that the bulk of the Democratic supporters are either living off it or reliant upon it or directly related to it and empowered by it somehow or another these days. I think it's quite obvious and I'm amazed that you're unable to see it.

The Republican unraveling memes have been low tax, small government, cut domestic spending for years.  They have gone way beyond the point of diminishing return.

I know that off an Engineer’s pay I am not living off, reliant, directly related to it or otherwise.  Neither do I know of many that are.  You sound like you are wallowing in Reagan’s welfare queen myth.  If you allow yourself to indulge in a false sense of what is common, you come up with strange ideals.

When economics is a morality play, that's what you get.  C-Xer is typical believer of the "they didn't earn it; they don't deserve it" meme, that actually makes us all poorer in the long run … even the short run, for that matter.

[David Horn]

(04-30-2020, 11:03 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 07:35 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I note how many Asian countries had encountered the SARS and MERS epidemics had planned for future outbreaks.  The plans seemed to have worked, in spite of a few mistakes, and in contrast to Trump dismissing our planners.

Wrong.  The "ME" in MERS stands for the Middle East, which is not the same as Asia, as you may not be aware.  Most Pacific Rim countries have seen at least one change of government since SARS.

To the extent there was a benefit, it was from most of the citizens having been through it before with SARS, and acting before the governments could interfere.  Japan and Taiwan did have early restrictions on travel from China, but South Korea missed the boat on that.

Is there ever a time that you see any benefit at all from common effort?  No, this is not the success of individual effort. South Korea was a gentler version than Singapore, I grant you that, but both were collective efforts.

Do you like team sports, or are you only interested in track and field, tennis, swimming, speed skating and skiing?  Just curious.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-01-2020, 07:54 AM)David Horn Wrote: Is there ever a time that you see any benefit at all from common effort?  No, this is not the success of individual effort. South Korea was a gentler version than Singapore, I grant you that, but both were collective efforts.

Do you (Warren) like team sports, or are you only interested in track and field, tennis, swimming, speed skating and skiing?  Just curious.

Well, when he was younger he was into Fantasy Role Playing, which is a collective effort.  I consider it to be a shared daydream.

[David Horn]

(05-01-2020, 10:35 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-01-2020, 07:54 AM)David Horn Wrote: Is there ever a time that you see any benefit at all from common effort?  No, this is not the success of individual effort. South Korea was a gentler version than Singapore, I grant you that, but both were collective efforts.

Do you (Warren) like team sports, or are you only interested in track and field, tennis, swimming, speed skating and skiing?  Just curious.

Well, when he was younger he was into Fantasy Role Playing, which is a collective effort.  I consider it to be a shared daydream.

If it takes place IRL, then it's collective.  If it happens on a computer screen, not so much.

[Bob Butler 54]

I have come to view population density of states or nations, social distancing, masks, gloves, other PPE and closing borders as various forms of isolation.  All are attempts to keep carriers from contaminating the uninfected.  They complement each other.  If one approach was carried on to the extent of providing perfect isolation, there would be no need for the others.  Unfortunately, all as generally practiced are flawed.  You often employ multiple methods to complement one another and thus improve isolation.

Closing borders is one of the techniques that is not perfect.  Hong Kong failed to keep the bug out and away from the cell apartments.  Trump sent agents untrained in infectious diseases to meet some early returnees from Asia and cruise ships, and allowed them to break quarantine then stay in the local communities.  If you are not extremely rigorous, border closure doesn't work, though some island communities who back it up with tests and quarantine can make it work as part of a larger strategy.  Still, it can provide some delay and cut down on the initial infection rate.  

I would not count on border control as a sole technique.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-01-2020, 10:38 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-01-2020, 10:35 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-01-2020, 07:54 AM)David Horn Wrote: Is there ever a time that you see any benefit at all from common effort?  No, this is not the success of individual effort. South Korea was a gentler version than Singapore, I grant you that, but both were collective efforts.

Do you (Warren) like team sports, or are you only interested in track and field, tennis, swimming, speed skating and skiing?  Just curious.

Well, when he was younger he was into Fantasy Role Playing, which is a collective effort.  I consider it to be a shared daydream.

If it takes place IRL, then it's collective.  If it happens on a computer screen, not so much.

Pretty fair. Some computer games attempt to add traditional elements such as character and plot to their games, but I have so far been unimpressed. They pretty much count on hack and slash gaming and puzzle solving.

[Eric the Green]

(04-30-2020, 07:08 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 04:09 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 03:49 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 03:35 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: You still think he can learn?  You must be further gone than I thought.  

I think he's shown that he's able to learn better than all of you at this point. Good luck with living under the Progressives and good luck with keeping up with all the taxes and added costs that are going to be imposed on you, your property, your retirement funds and so forth.

See, you guys are only concerned about taxes. Blue people might pay more taxes, but we create a society in which there's more prosperity and opportunity because we pay more taxes. You git whutcha pay fer. I just paid my taxes, but I got a good $4000 federal credit for my solar panels this year. I'm glad the Democrats insisted on keeping it before Trump got in.

We're only concerned about taxes. Are you sure about that? You guys seem way more concerned about taxes/ taxation than us. We are more concerned about wealth than taxation like you guys. I get the impression that the bulk of the Democratic supporters these days are either living off it or reliant upon it stuff related to it or directly related to it politically and empowered by it somehow or another these days. I think it's quite obvious and I'm amazed that you're unable to see it. So, how much did you pay for your solar panels? I assume that it costed you a lot more than 4000.  I had a customer who paid several thousand dollars to have them installed.

You just said "good luck with keeping up with all the taxes" so that means you are only concerned about taxes, politically. That means you are concerned about how taxes might affect your wealth. You only see your own wealth; you don't understand as well the connection between the taxes you pay and the needs of society which indirectly affect your wealth if not attended to. That does include helping the less fortunate, and you guys don't understand that this is a protection for yourself as well. The Dust Bowl documentary on PBS this week showed how the rugged individualists who vote Republican in that area had to finally admit that they needed help; since then of course they have forgotten again and nowadays vote Republican by the largest margins in the country; all based on their illusion of self-reliance, which you largely share. It's a matter of shortsightedness, mainly, as well as pride, and resentment at supposedly helping lazy people, that accounts for your inability to see your connection to society's needs.

My solar panels cost almost $14,000, and I got more than $4000 as a credit, reducing my tax bill this year by that amount. You have to have at least that much in taxes due otherwise in order to take the credit, though; which I did this past year.

[Eric the Green]

(04-30-2020, 07:46 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 04:06 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: UP in the new age ethers

I even learned something from HIM today. Who knows, my good example could inspire him. Oh well, I dream on....

Yep. You go right ahead and continue dreaming on....

People like me, generally "N" on the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, adhere to the point of view expressed by George Bernard Shaw and the Kennedys: "some people see things as they are and ask why; others see things that never were, and ask why not?" Or, see the statement by Justin Bieber in my signature line; click on it to hear him sing it. It does explain a lot of what I end up posting. Some people call it imagination; something Republican voters are sorely lacking in.

[Warren Dew]

(05-01-2020, 07:44 AM)David Horn Wrote: That looks like a success story to me.

It is.  It's just that the facts aren't consistent with the explanation of why it's a success story that you linked to.  For example, high levels of testing can't be why South Korea was successful, because when you account for the fact that it takes a couple weeks for actual new cases to be detectable in test results, South Korea didn't get to high levels of testing until after their problem was already fixed.

Here's a correct explanation of why South Korea is a success story:

https://www.quora.com/What-did-South-Kor...Warren-Dew

You can tell it's correct because I used it to make predictions of the course of Covid-19 in the US, and those predictions turned out to be correct.

The biggest thing South Korea "did right" was to close their schools - for other reasons, of course - before they realized Covid-19 was a big enough problem to act on.  The next biggest was voluntary mask use by the population.

[Warren Dew]

(05-01-2020, 07:54 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 11:03 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Wrong.  The "ME" in MERS stands for the Middle East, which is not the same as Asia, as you may not be aware.  Most Pacific Rim countries have seen at least one change of government since SARS.

To the extent there was a benefit, it was from most of the citizens having been through it before with SARS, and acting before the governments could interfere.  Japan and Taiwan did have early restrictions on travel from China, but South Korea missed the boat on that.

Is there ever a time that you see any benefit at all from common effort?  No, this is not the success of individual effort. South Korea was a gentler version than Singapore, I grant you that, but both were collective efforts.

Everyone wearing masks actually is a common, collective effort.  It's just not a government run effort.

It's a perfect example of the "think globally, act locally" philosophy that dominated the environmental movement in the 1970s.  In this case, "think globally" means, "if everyone wore a mask, then transmission would be cut massively, thus greatly reducing the damage from the pandemic".  "Act locally" means, "therefore I should wear a mask, even though my mask doesn't protect me personally, because if everyone does it, then everyone will be protected, including myself".

I don't understand how any Boomers could have missed that, without missing the counterculture entirely.  I'm sure Eric would understand it.  It amazes me that any Boomer could have to wait for the government to tell him what to do before he could take action.

[Warren Dew]

(05-01-2020, 12:44 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: My solar panels cost almost $14,000, and I got more than $4000 as a credit, reducing my tax bill this year by that amount. You have to have at least that much in taxes due otherwise in order to take the credit, though; which I did this past year.

I've been sorely tempted by solar panels; they have a good payback time even without the tax credit.  In Massachusetts, though, I worry about the effect on roof leakage, especially in the winter when ice dams can form.

Musk's approach of having the roof tiles actually be the solar panels ultimately seems like the way to go, but right now that's much more expensive.

[pbrower2a]

Originally posted in Leip's Election Atlas. Not to be confused with other polling maps that I have elsewhere in this thread because it does not compare quite the same things -- yet.

Approval only of the President's performance on COVID-19 -- not disapproval. Note the difference in the legend. I am treating anything from 46 to 49% approval as effectively a tie. To be sure, COVID-19 is the focus of most Americans' concerns these days as a clear and present danger to ourselves, or at least to people for whom we care. COVID-19 is about as dangerous as any war for which there is conscription, and I assure you -- I am doing everything possible to dodge its draft! This time, draft-dodging is without qualification a noble act!  



Trump approval:

60% or higher approval
55-59%
50-54%
46-49% (white)
43-45%
41 or 42%
40% or lower

Trump's "best" state is Wyoming, where he gets 59% approval on his handling of COVID-19. As you can see. sixteen states give Trump 40% or lower approval on his handling of COVID-19, which shows Trump in an unflattering light. To be sure, these states have usually been trouble for Trump for other things, but because COVID-19 is the equivalent of war as a clear and present danger, it is the current focus of political life.     

Note that all Governors fare better than Trump in approval in their states (I take that the number for the District of Columbia is for the mayor or the majority of the city council, either Democratic.  



Approval of State governors

Red  - Democrats;  Blue -  Republicans

The saturation is the tens digit of approval (first digit of an approval number. Thus Kristi Noem (R, SD)  gets a saturation of "4" in the color red for 49% approval and David Ige (D, HI) gets only 39% approval and blue at the saturation level of "3". Those two Governors get the worst approval ratings.     

You will notice that Governors of Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont are Republicans and that Governors of Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, and North Carolina are Democrats, and thus we have the anomalous colors for those states. 

Source:  http://www.kateto.net/COVID19%20CONSORTI...202020.pdf

[Eric the Green]

(05-01-2020, 04:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(05-01-2020, 07:54 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 11:03 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Wrong.  The "ME" in MERS stands for the Middle East, which is not the same as Asia, as you may not be aware.  Most Pacific Rim countries have seen at least one change of government since SARS.

To the extent there was a benefit, it was from most of the citizens having been through it before with SARS, and acting before the governments could interfere.  Japan and Taiwan did have early restrictions on travel from China, but South Korea missed the boat on that.

Is there ever a time that you see any benefit at all from common effort?  No, this is not the success of individual effort. South Korea was a gentler version than Singapore, I grant you that, but both were collective efforts.

Everyone wearing masks actually is a common, collective effort.  It's just not a government run effort.

It's a perfect example of the "think globally, act locally" philosophy that dominated the environmental movement in the 1970s.  In this case, "think globally" means, "if everyone wore a mask, then transmission would be cut massively, thus greatly reducing the damage from the pandemic".  "Act locally" means, "therefore I should wear a mask, even though my mask doesn't protect me personally, because if everyone does it, then everyone will be protected, including myself".

I don't understand how any Boomers could have missed that, without missing the counterculture entirely.  I'm sure Eric would understand it.  It amazes me that any Boomer could have to wait for the government to tell him what to do before he could take action.

I'm not sure what the science says about how well masks work. It depends on the quality of the mask, at least. Many of them have to be cleaned after each use or replaced after each use. Because of that doubt, other measures have been taken as well by governments.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-01-2020, 10:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm not sure what the science says about how well masks work. It depends on the quality of the mask, at least. Many of them have to be cleaned after each use or replaced after each use. Because of that doubt, other measures have been taken as well by governments.

Yes.  They are less than perfect, but good as part of a multi layered approach to isolation.

That seems to be the difference.  If you value people more, you strive to apply as many of the forms of isolation as possible, stacking them to achieve maximum effect.  If you value money more, you try to discredit the forms of isolation that get in the way of the economy.  Thus, some let their political ideology get in the way of science, come up with weird conclusions that are the opposite of what most think.