The Coronavirus

[Bob Butler 54]

It looks like Trump is trying to get a vaccine as quickly as possible. That would be a good thing. I just hope that in trying to speed up the process, perhaps in time for the election, he doesn’t in fact slow it down.

I am getting the feeling that speeding up development and trials could be a good thing. There will be volunteers eager to seek an advantage. I have a feeling that the lives preserved by rapid development would be greater than those lost by trying imperfect hastily developed products. The ‘do no harm’ usual careful approach may well be replaced by an idea of preventing as much harm as possible.

[Classic-Xer]

(05-01-2020, 12:44 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You just said "good luck with keeping up with all the taxes" so that means you are only concerned about taxes, politically. That means you are concerned about how taxes might affect your wealth. You only see your own wealth; you don't understand as well the connection between the taxes you pay and the needs of society which indirectly affect your wealth if not attended to. That does include helping the less fortunate, and you guys don't understand that this is a protection for yourself as well. The Dust Bowl documentary on PBS this week showed how the rugged individualists who vote Republican in that area had to finally admit that they needed help; since then of course they have forgotten again and nowadays vote Republican by the largest margins in the country; all based on their illusion of self-reliance, which you largely share. It's a matter of shortsightedness, mainly, as well as pride, and resentment at supposedly helping lazy people, that accounts for your inability to see your connection to society's needs.

My solar panels cost almost $14,000, and I got more than $4000 as a credit, reducing my tax bill this year by that amount. You have to have at least that much in taxes due otherwise in order to take the credit, though; which I did this past year.

Not True. I saw/see more than just my wealth at stake. I saw Bob's too but he's on your side and still supports big government so what happens with/to his wealth doesn't matter much to me at this point. The rural folks on the Republican side aren't poor people these days. The rural people on the Republican side are all wealthier people like me who have access to the internet, cable/satellite TV, microwave ovens, modern age machinery, post high school education and so forth. You're not going to by them off and teach them stuff that they already know or are able find out and learn themselves. You're loosing because you're out classed and out smarted. The rural Republican voters aren't dumb/ illiterate people these days. I laugh every time a dip shit liberal opens their mouth and says something stupid to another dip shit liberal about how stupid and backwards and outdated the rural Republican voters are these days compared to them. You want to chain or tie yourself to an old Sequoia that's past it's prime and then watch in horror as they all go up flames some day that's fine. You be stupid and do that today. You represent two classes with a MAJOR economic gap that exists between the two of them while the other side remains committed to advancement the good old American way. Hint: If you don't like American freedom, American ingenuity or real American advancement, you better get the fuck out of here before you are blind sided and steam rolled by them.

[David Horn]

(05-01-2020, 04:01 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(05-01-2020, 07:44 AM)David Horn Wrote: That looks like a success story to me.

It is.  It's just that the facts aren't consistent with the explanation of why it's a success story that you linked to.  For example, high levels of testing can't be why South Korea was successful, because when you account for the fact that it takes a couple weeks for actual new cases to be detectable in test results, South Korea didn't get to high levels of testing until after their problem was already fixed.

Here's a correct explanation of why South Korea is a success story:

https://www.quora.com/What-did-South-Kor...Warren-Dew

You can tell it's correct because I used it to make predictions of the course of Covid-19 in the US, and those predictions turned out to be correct.

The biggest thing South Korea "did right" was to close their schools - for other reasons, of course - before they realized Covid-19 was a big enough problem to act on.  The next biggest was voluntary mask use by the population.

They did all the right things, because they had experience with doing them less well.  Testing: they had kits our within 2 weeks after they got a sample of the virus RNA. The masking and contact tracing were also aggressive.  Feel free to nitpick about details, but their success is as dramatic as our failure.

[Warren Dew]

(05-01-2020, 10:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm not sure what the science says about how well masks work. It depends on the quality of the mask, at least. Many of them have to be cleaned after each use or replaced after each use. Because of that doubt, other measures have been taken as well by governments.

Masks alone might not be enough.  That doesn't mean all measures taken by governments do any good.  In the case of South Korea, the schools closed at just the right time for a vacation, which shows up clearly in the case data when you delay for the time it takes for a newly infected individual to get tested and for the test to come back.  The South Korean government wisely extended the school closure.  However, there's no evidence their massive testing program helped, though I doubt it did any harm, either.

Meanwhile, there were other voluntary measures as well.  The South Korean people stopped going out as much, and switched from eat in to takeout on their own.

[David Horn]

(05-01-2020, 04:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Everyone wearing masks actually is a common, collective effort.  It's just not a government run effort.

It's a perfect example of the "think globally, act locally" philosophy that dominated the environmental movement in the 1970s.  In this case, "think globally" means, "if everyone wore a mask, then transmission would be cut massively, thus greatly reducing the damage from the pandemic".  "Act locally" means, "therefore I should wear a mask, even though my mask doesn't protect me personally, because if everyone does it, then everyone will be protected, including myself".

I don't understand how any Boomers could have missed that, without missing the counterculture entirely.  I'm sure Eric would understand it.  It amazes me that any Boomer could have to wait for the government to tell him what to do before he could take action.

The big difference: the Koreans actually followed the rules from day one without being forced to do so. The why is easy: they had prior experience. We Americans pooh-poohed the entire thing until the oh-oh moment arrived, and denial became impossible. To be honest, the West Coast did better, but the so-far less affected are ready to do stupid again -- even with the examples they see on TV everyday.

[David Horn]

(05-02-2020, 06:03 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: It looks like Trump is trying to get a vaccine as quickly as possible.  That would be a good thing.  I just hope that in trying to speed up the process, perhaps in time for the election, he doesn’t in fact slow it down.

I am getting the feeling that speeding up development and trials could be a good thing.  There will be volunteers eager to seek an advantage.  I have a feeling that the lives preserved by rapid development would be greater than those lost by trying imperfect hastily developed products.  The ‘do no harm’ usual careful approach may well be replaced by an idea of preventing as much harm as possible.

There are two immune systems, and one does not require an antigen-specific response. There's promise there, using live-virus vaccines for totally unrelated diseases.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-02-2020, 11:34 AM)David Horn Wrote: The big difference: the Koreans actually followed the rules from day one without being forced to do so.  The why is easy: they had prior experience.  We Americans pooh-poohed the entire thing until the oh-oh moment arrived, and denial became impossible. To be honest, the West Coast did better, but the so-far less affected are ready to do stupid again -- even with the examples they see on TV everyday.

I don't know whether to disagree with you that denial is impossible. I should be impossible. Some deny it anyway.

[pbrower2a]

(05-02-2020, 12:06 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-02-2020, 11:34 AM)David Horn Wrote: The big difference: the Koreans actually followed the rules from day one without being forced to do so.  The why is easy: they had prior experience.  We Americans pooh-poohed the entire thing until the oh-oh moment arrived, and denial became impossible. To be honest, the West Coast did better, but the so-far less affected are ready to do stupid again -- even with the examples they see on TV everyday.

I don't know whether to disagree with you that denial is impossible.  It should be impossible.  Some deny it anyway.

The people of South Korea are a disciplined lot, which one might expect of a people who are seconds away from a barrage of missiles or a few hours away from conquest by an insane regime to its north. In such an environment one can expect people to honor legitimate authority that keeps its credibility clean. Also, South Koreans are well educated and seem averse to crackpot ideas.

Crackpot ideas are most likely among the partially-educated, such as those who barely graduated from an American high school.

[pbrower2a]

(05-01-2020, 12:44 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 07:08 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 04:09 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 03:49 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 03:35 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: You still think he can learn?  You must be further gone than I thought.  

I think he's shown that he's able to learn better than all of you at this point. Good luck with living under the Progressives and good luck with keeping up with all the taxes and added costs that are going to be imposed on you, your property, your retirement funds and so forth.

See, you guys are only concerned about taxes. Blue people might pay more taxes, but we create a society in which there's more prosperity and opportunity because we pay more taxes. You git whutcha pay fer. I just paid my taxes, but I got a good $4000 federal credit for my solar panels this year. I'm glad the Democrats insisted on keeping it before Trump got in.

We're only concerned about taxes. Are you sure about that? You guys seem way more concerned about taxes/ taxation than us. We are more concerned about wealth than taxation like you guys. I get the impression that the bulk of the Democratic supporters these days are either living off it or reliant upon it stuff related to it or directly related to it politically and empowered by it somehow or another these days. I think it's quite obvious and I'm amazed that you're unable to see it. So, how much did you pay for your solar panels? I assume that it costed you a lot more than 4000.  I had a customer who paid several thousand dollars to have them installed.

You just said "good luck with keeping up with all the taxes" so that means you are only concerned about taxes, politically. That means you are concerned about how taxes might affect your wealth. You only see your own wealth; you don't understand as well the connection between the taxes you pay and the needs of society which indirectly affect your wealth if not attended to. That does include helping the less fortunate, and you guys don't understand that this is a protection for yourself as well. The Dust Bowl documentary on PBS this week showed how the rugged individualists who vote Republican in that area had to finally admit that they needed help; since then of course they have forgotten again and nowadays vote Republican by the largest margins in the country; all based on their illusion of self-reliance, which you largely share. It's a matter of shortsightedness, mainly, as well as pride, and resentment at supposedly helping lazy people, that accounts for your inability to see your connection to society's needs.

My solar panels cost almost $14,000, and I got more than $4000 as a credit, reducing my tax bill this year by that amount. You have to have at least that much in taxes due otherwise in order to take the credit, though; which I did this past year.

Add to this, Classic X'er likely gets much of his business installing and servicing HVAC equipment in government buildings (including K-12 schools, community colleges, and State universities), jails and prisons, and hospitals and nursing homes that get much of their income from government aid including Medicaid and Social Security. I doubt that the Twin Cities have many defense contractors who rely heavily upon government payments, but I doubt that he would reject doing work for one of them on any principle. If he does work for some elderly person who relies heavily upon Social Security or a government pension of any kind or a state, local, or government employee, then he gets indirect pay from the government that he might not otherwise get. 

Much as he would like to believe that he is better than some "slug" who gets welfare or a government paycheck -- he isn't. He is as much on the take for easy money from government spending as anyone else.

[Classic-Xer]

(05-01-2020, 11:45 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-01-2020, 10:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm not sure what the science says about how well masks work. It depends on the quality of the mask, at least. Many of them have to be cleaned after each use or replaced after each use. Because of that doubt, other measures have been taken as well by governments.

Yes.  They are less than perfect, but good as part of a multi layered approach to isolation.

That seems to be the difference.  If you value people more, you strive to apply as many of the forms of isolation as possible, stacking them to achieve maximum effect.  If you value money more, you try to discredit the forms of isolation that get in the way of the economy.  Thus, some let their political ideology get in the way of science, come up with weird conclusions that are the opposite of what most think.

Science takes time. Politicians take time. Bureaucratic establishments take time. Systems take time to adjust. While all that time is being taken, the entire money related system is losing money hand over fist. The State of Minnesota is about 5 billion in the hole or short as far as TAX REVENUES with no end in sight as far as the virus goes right now. We have a portion of the workforce out there working and interacting with people/customers and placing themselves at risk as we speak. In short, the shit ain't going away for years and the shit has most likely been around for longer than a month and a half. That's where we are at in my opinion. I think I probably already had it back in late December/early January. I'll let you know for sure whenever the tests that our governor and his team keeps telling us about as being here then telling us why it isn't here yet and then telling us it should be here in a week then extending it being here for another week or two and then extending it another month or so. The job of a doctor or nurse is to advise not dictate. The job of a scientist is to advise not dictate. The job of Democratic politician living of the wealth and success of an American based nation is to lead not follow and not speak to me while in a room with reporters and members of his team without wearing masks themselves. It's hypocritical and sends the wrong message and hurts themselves in the process.

[Eric the Green]

(05-02-2020, 01:14 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(05-01-2020, 11:45 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-01-2020, 10:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm not sure what the science says about how well masks work. It depends on the quality of the mask, at least. Many of them have to be cleaned after each use or replaced after each use. Because of that doubt, other measures have been taken as well by governments.

Yes.  They are less than perfect, but good as part of a multi layered approach to isolation.

That seems to be the difference.  If you value people more, you strive to apply as many of the forms of isolation as possible, stacking them to achieve maximum effect.  If you value money more, you try to discredit the forms of isolation that get in the way of the economy.  Thus, some let their political ideology get in the way of science, come up with weird conclusions that are the opposite of what most think.

Science takes time. Politicians take time. Bureaucratic establishments take time. Systems take time to adjust. While all that time is being taken, the entire money related  system is losing money hand over fist. The State of Minnesota is about 5 billion in the hole or short as far as TAX REVENUES with no end in sight as far as the virus goes right now. We have a portion of the workforce out there working and interacting with people/customers and placing themselves at risk as we speak. In short, the shit ain't going away for years and the shit has most likely been around for longer than a month and a half. That's where we are at in my opinion. I think I probably already had it back in late December/early January. I'll let you know for sure whenever the tests that our governor and his team keeps telling us about as being here then telling us why it isn't here yet and then telling us it should be here in a week then extending it being here for another week or two and then extending it another month or so. The job of a doctor or nurse is to advise not dictate. The job of a scientist is to advise not dictate. The job of Democratic politician living of the wealth and success of an American based nation is to lead not follow and not speak to me while in a room with reporters and members of his team without wearing masks themselves. It's hypocritical and sends the wrong message and hurts themselves in the process.

That's right, and not a Republican politician either, such as Trump and Pence who declare they aren't going to wear masks. I wonder what you think about $2.2 trillion spent and yet businesses not getting the loans that they were promised, and thus clamoring to reopen. If the Trump admin had actually admin-ed this appropriation, then our country would not need to reopen so soon to keep the economy afloat. And if Trump and Co. had commandeered industry to provide masks and tests that are needed, and provided funds to local and state governments so they can test and track cases and pay health workers, funds which states cannot provide because they can't borrow and do deficit spending, then the shit would have been less and we might have been on a downward slope in cases and deaths now instead of 35,000 new cases a day and over 2000 deaths a day with no end in sight.

[pbrower2a]

(05-02-2020, 01:14 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(05-01-2020, 11:45 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-01-2020, 10:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm not sure what the science says about how well masks work. It depends on the quality of the mask, at least. Many of them have to be cleaned after each use or replaced after each use. Because of that doubt, other measures have been taken as well by governments.

Yes.  They are less than perfect, but good as part of a multi layered approach to isolation.

That seems to be the difference.  If you value people more, you strive to apply as many of the forms of isolation as possible, stacking them to achieve maximum effect.  If you value money more, you try to discredit the forms of isolation that get in the way of the economy.  Thus, some let their political ideology get in the way of science, come up with weird conclusions that are the opposite of what most think.

Science takes time. Politicians take time. Bureaucratic establishments take time. Systems take time to adjust. While all that time is being taken, the entire money related  system is losing money hand over fist. The State of Minnesota is about 5 billion in the hole or short as far as TAX REVENUES with no end in sight as far as the virus goes right now. We have a portion of the workforce out there working and interacting with people/customers and placing themselves at risk as we speak. In short, the shit ain't going away for years and the shit has most likely been around for longer than a month and a half. That's where we are at in my opinion. I think I probably already had it back in late December/early January. I'll let you know for sure whenever the tests that our governor and his team keeps telling us about as being here then telling us why it isn't here yet and then telling us it should be here in a week then extending it being here for another week or two and then extending it another month or so. The job of a doctor or nurse is to advise not dictate. The job of a scientist is to advise not dictate. The job of Democratic politician living of the wealth and success of an American based nation is to lead not follow and not speak to me while in a room with reporters and members of his team without wearing masks themselves. It's hypocritical and sends the wrong message and hurts themselves in the process.

We have an alternative to the pervasive and protracted shutdowns of much of our economic activity:


MASS DEATH!


The costs of COVID-19 in lives and public expenditures are analogous to those of a war. We might as well treat COVID-19 for what it is -- an enemy just as nasty as the Axis Powers of the Second World War. This is the definitive crisis of this Crisis Era. It might not be as horrible as a nuclear exchange that many of us used to fear. The deaths, to come with little recognition of heroism, so there will be no Congressional Medals of Honor for people who cover a live grenade in a fox-hole to save their buddies. The death is real, and protracted as it can be it is no less horrible. Consider this: the people dying of COVID-19 are often the same age as Vietnam-era veterans. In the last two months, COVID-19 has recently posed more danger to Vietnam vets than the NVA and the Vietcong ever did.   

If we end the shutdowns we might get a spurt of economic activity, but at a cost of another surge of a costly illness and death. Those who die can never contribute more to the economy.

I trust that once COVID-19 is gone, Americans can resume normal lives again. People will do things that are undeniably human and necessary in the long term, like going to school, dating, marrying, having children, traveling, and working in the 'non-essential' activities that constitute much of the economy. People will be going to concerts, religious services, museums, casinos, and even strip clubs again. People will be having backyard barbecues, parties, and ice-cream socials again. people will take trips to places where there is something to do again or to do safely again. Nobody really challenges the assumptions of a free-market consumer-based economy. 

But what if we have mass death instead? If the mass death largely hits the working people who do much of the hard, dirty work such as meat-packing, cleaning, and farm labor we could end up with food shortages. If enough people die, then places that people live in when the population is about 325 million instead of 250 million will be abandoned. Just take a good look at Detroit to see the effects of depopulation that has nothing to do with mass death -- much vacant housing and many open lots in what used to be the most prosperous city in the world. Municipalities that have much bonded indebtedness will be unable to collect property taxes on buildings that landlords can no longer lease. Utilities depend heavily upon captive markets, and with significantly fewer customers they will have costly excess capacity to finance and reduced revenues.  People will be commuting shorter distances as outlying suburbs are the places most likely to be abandoned, so that will shrink the revenue of the fossil-fuels industry. Financial institutions and bond-holders will get hurt. So far, COVID-19 seems to be ravaging the elderly and near-elderly, so you can imagine what that does to the lucrative business of nursing homes. Construction activity will grind to a halt. 

These are consequences heavily to businesses for which I have no fondness -- but when all of those businesses hurt, we all pay. OK, so rising wages and reduced rents will make life easier, just as after the Black Death. Sure-- there is a silver lining in every cloud. OK, maybe not the Holocaust or the Atlantic slave trade, but I think that you get the idea.

[Classic-Xer]

(05-02-2020, 12:45 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Add to this, Classic X'er likely gets much of his business installing and servicing HVAC equipment in government buildings (including K-12 schools, community colleges, and State universities), jails and prisons, and hospitals and nursing homes that get much of their income from government aid including Medicaid and Social Security. I doubt that the Twin Cities have many defense contractors who rely heavily upon government payments, but I doubt that he would reject doing work for one of them on any principle. If he does work for some elderly person who relies heavily upon Social Security or a government pension of any kind or a state, local, or government employee, then he gets indirect pay from the government that he might not otherwise get. 

Much as he would like to believe that he is better than some "slug" who gets welfare or a government paycheck -- he isn't. He is as much on the take for easy money from government spending as anyone else.

No. I mainly do business with homeowners and business owners these days. Yes, some of the residential customers work for the state, local governments and public school system and retiree's but most are private sector employee's. I specialize in residential and light commercial. The ones who do the work for public schools and other government facilities are union contractors that specialize in commercial/industrial. One of my best friends is a union pipe fighter. I'm not concerned about him, the teachers, the cops, the firefighters, municipalities and their employee's and so forth because them being deemed no longer essential and no longer needed is completely unimaginable at this point. Hint: if it's unimaginable it doesn't click at all and generally gets ignored/filed as a non issue and treated as an issue that doesn't rise concern. It might be a concern to some big government deadbeat or white slug who prefers to lean on a shovel or fuck around with their phone some minority who thinks the color of their skin grants them free passes for being late or their gayness or mental disorder grants them power over everyone else.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-02-2020, 01:14 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Science takes time. Politicians take time. Bureaucratic establishments take time. Systems take time to adjust. While all that time is being taken, the entire money related  system is losing money hand over fist. The State of Minnesota is about 5 billion in the hole or short as far as TAX REVENUES with no end in sight as far as the virus goes right now. We have a portion of the workforce out there working and interacting with people/customers and placing themselves at risk as we speak. In short, the shit ain't going away for years and the shit has most likely been around for longer than a month and a half. That's where we are at in my opinion. I think I probably already had it back in late December/early January. I'll let you know for sure whenever the tests that our governor and his team keeps telling us about as being here then telling us why it isn't here yet and then telling us it should be here in a week then extending it being here for another week or two and then extending it another month or so. The job of a doctor or nurse is to advise not dictate. The job of a scientist is to advise not dictate. The job of Democratic politician living of the wealth and success of an American based nation is to lead not follow and not speak to me while in a room with reporters and members of his team without wearing masks themselves. It's hypocritical and sends the wrong message and hurts themselves in the process.

Science does take time.  Still, as I have said elsewhere, being careful, doing no harm, can to some extent take a back seat when so much harm is being done by taking your time.

Politicians?  Bureaucrats?  In a crisis, there are trials and errors.  There are lessons learned.  How to take less time while people are dying might be such a lesson this time around.  Why is there a shortage of PPE?  Why are there no tests?  One of the big lessons learned will be how to act promptly with as little time spent on overhead as possible.  We should not be content with delay and inefficiency.

And there are the protesters.  In making a big deal or violating isolation, they are only guaranteeing the isolation will last longer.  The people who want to save lives and the people who want to reopen the economy should be on the same side.  If you try to open the economy without tests, without reducing the number of infections, you are only going to have another wave that forces the shutdowns to start again and last longer.  If you violate isolation in the protests, you are only spreading the virus and forcing the isolation to last longer.

And doing it smart counts.  You would know better than me, but it seems like a mask, gloves and a can of Lysol would allow you to safely do repairs on many an air conditioning system.  There are likely enough other precautions you could take and some situations that can’t be worked around that only someone who has worked the job could know.  There is no reason for you to stay at home so long as you are taking every reasonable precaution.  As I have given examples in three of the jobs I worked before I retired, I would not be surprised if such a logic could be applied widely.  

There are alternatives to shutting everything down or opening everything up.  This does not say professional sports or jewelry stores can be categorized as essential.  There are some things that should be shut down for the duration.

We have, through automation, vastly improved productivity.  In order that everyone keep a 40 hour work week and retire at around 65, we have given a lot of the difference in productivity to the elites and spent much of our effort on luxuries.  The virus, among other things, has given us a chance to rethink our priorities.  Do I need an air conditioner?  I got along fine without one until about 5 years ago.  Could we restructure the way the economy works such that fewer hours per week or per career are worked, but the pay is distributed more evenly to more people?

But some only want to return to the old normal.  Some would rather gripe than think outside the box.  Something quite different might evolve out of all this.

[Classic-Xer]

(05-02-2020, 02:17 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: MASS DEATH!


The costs of COVID-19 in lives and public expenditures are analogous to those of a war. We might as well treat COVID-19 for what it is -- an enemy just as nasty as the Axis Powers of the Second World War. This is the definitive crisis of this Crisis Era. It might not be as horrible as a nuclear exchange that many of us used to fear. The deaths, to come with little recognition of heroism, so there will be no Congressional Medals of Honor for people who cover a live grenade in a fox-hole to save their buddies. The death is real, and protracted as it can be it is no less horrible. Consider this: the people dying of COVID-19 are often the same age as Vietnam-era veterans. In the last two months, COVID-19 has recently posed more danger to Vietnam vets than the NVA and the Vietcong ever did.   

If we end the shutdowns we might get a spurt of economic activity, but at a cost of another surge of a costly illness and death. Those who die can never contribute more to the economy.

I trust that once COVID-19 is gone, Americans can resume normal lives again. People will do things that are undeniably human and necessary in the long term, like going to school, dating, marrying, having children, traveling, and working in the 'non-essential' activities that constitute much of the economy. People will be going to concerts, religious services, museums, casinos, and even strip clubs again. People will be having backyard barbecues, parties, and ice-cream socials again. people will take trips to places where there is something to do again or to do safely again. Nobody really challenges the assumptions of a free-market consumer-based economy. 

But what if we have mass death instead? If the mass death largely hits the working people who do much of the hard, dirty work such as meat-packing, cleaning, and farm labor we could end up with food shortages. If enough people die, then places that people live in when the population is about 325 million instead of 250 million will be abandoned. Just take a good look at Detroit to see the effects of depopulation that has nothing to do with mass death -- much vacant housing and many open lots in what used to be the most prosperous city in the world. Municipalities that have much bonded indebtedness will be unable to collect property taxes on buildings that landlords can no longer lease. Utilities depend heavily upon captive markets, and with significantly fewer customers they will have costly excess capacity to finance and reduced revenues.  People will be commuting shorter distances as outlying suburbs are the places most likely to be abandoned, so that will shrink the revenue of the fossil-fuels industry. Financial institutions and bond-holders will get hurt. So far, COVID-19 seems to be ravaging the elderly and near-elderly, so you can imagine what that does to the lucrative business of nursing homes. Construction activity will grind to a halt. 

These are consequences heavily to businesses for which I have no fondness -- but when all of those businesses hurt, we all pay. OK, so rising wages and reduced rents will make life easier, just as after the Black Death. Sure-- there is a silver lining in every cloud. OK, maybe not the Holocaust or the Atlantic slave trade, but I think that you get the idea.

Hint: If the liberals keep playing games with numbers, people's lives and lively hoods, playing games with dates/deadlines and moving goal lines this is going end way worse and way more costly than World War II and financially wipe out every social program that followed in the process. I'm not concerned about America because America was built to succeed and survive.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-02-2020, 04:18 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Hint: If the liberals keep playing games with numbers, people's lives and lively hoods, playing games with dates/deadlines and moving goal lines this is going end way worse and way more costly than World War II and financially wipe out every social program that followed in the process. I'm not concerned about America because America was built to succeed and survive.

Did the high of the 1950s much resemble the Gilded Age? Does the crisis bring significant transformation? Do you really think we will return to what we once were?

You should really read for comprehension the works of Strauss and Howe.

[Bob Butler 54]

Rachel has been emphasizing how long term nursing homes, meat processing plants and prisons generate hot spots for the Coronavirus.  A variant of the nursing home is the convent.  A lot of old nuns who spent their lives in service to the community are living in such places.  CNN is telling the story of one such.

[pbrower2a]

(05-02-2020, 04:18 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(05-02-2020, 02:17 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: MASS DEATH!


The costs of COVID-19 in lives and public expenditures are analogous to those of a war. We might as well treat COVID-19 for what it is -- an enemy just as nasty as the Axis Powers of the Second World War. This is the definitive crisis of this Crisis Era. It might not be as horrible as a nuclear exchange that many of us used to fear. The deaths, to come with little recognition of heroism, so there will be no Congressional Medals of Honor for people who cover a live grenade in a fox-hole to save their buddies. The death is real, and protracted as it can be it is no less horrible. Consider this: the people dying of COVID-19 are often the same age as Vietnam-era veterans. In the last two months, COVID-19 has recently posed more danger to Vietnam vets than the NVA and the Vietcong ever did.   

If we end the shutdowns we might get a spurt of economic activity, but at a cost of another surge of a costly illness and death. Those who die can never contribute more to the economy.

I trust that once COVID-19 is gone, Americans can resume normal lives again. People will do things that are undeniably human and necessary in the long term, like going to school, dating, marrying, having children, traveling, and working in the 'non-essential' activities that constitute much of the economy. People will be going to concerts, religious services, museums, casinos, and even strip clubs again. People will be having backyard barbecues, parties, and ice-cream socials again. people will take trips to places where there is something to do again or to do safely again. Nobody really challenges the assumptions of a free-market consumer-based economy. 

But what if we have mass death instead? If the mass death largely hits the working people who do much of the hard, dirty work such as meat-packing, cleaning, and farm labor we could end up with food shortages. If enough people die, then places that people live in when the population is about 325 million instead of 250 million will be abandoned. Just take a good look at Detroit to see the effects of depopulation that has nothing to do with mass death -- much vacant housing and many open lots in what used to be the most prosperous city in the world. Municipalities that have much bonded indebtedness will be unable to collect property taxes on buildings that landlords can no longer lease. Utilities depend heavily upon captive markets, and with significantly fewer customers they will have costly excess capacity to finance and reduced revenues.  People will be commuting shorter distances as outlying suburbs are the places most likely to be abandoned, so that will shrink the revenue of the fossil-fuels industry. Financial institutions and bond-holders will get hurt. So far, COVID-19 seems to be ravaging the elderly and near-elderly, so you can imagine what that does to the lucrative business of nursing homes. Construction activity will grind to a halt. 

These are consequences heavily to businesses for which I have no fondness -- but when all of those businesses hurt, we all pay. OK, so rising wages and reduced rents will make life easier, just as after the Black Death. Sure -- there is a silver lining in every cloud. OK, maybe not the Holocaust or the Atlantic slave trade, but I think that you get the idea.

Hint: If the liberals keep playing games with numbers, people's lives and lively hoods, playing games with dates/deadlines and moving goal lines this is going end way worse and way more costly than World War II and financially wipe out every social program that followed in the process. I'm not concerned about America because America was built to succeed and survive.

It is the virus that is playing the games. It has more than 66,000 deaths as its wins already, surely with far more to come.  I can think of nobody who doesn't want the shutdown to end so that life can be normal again in a way that fits them. Nobody wants an association with mass death, even if 'only' at the level of serial killers Ted Bundy or John Gacy. Both were judged worthy of execution in the states in which they were convicted of first-degree murder. 


In case you wonder about the comparison to wars, then here is how COVID-19 matched up:

 Rank
War
Years
Deaths
Deaths per day
U.S. population in first year of war
Deaths as percentage of population1
American Civil War
1861–65
750,000 (est.)(U.S./Confederate)[86]
520
31,443,000
2.385% (1860)
2
World War II
1941–45
405,399
297
133,402,000
0.307% (1940)
3
World War I
1917–18
116,516
279
103,268,000
0.110% (1920)
4

==== COVID-19    over 65.000 as of today ====

Vietnam War
1961–75
58,209
11
179,323,175
0.032% (1970)
5
Korean War
1950–53
54,246
45
151,325,000
0.036% (1950)

Yes, America is built to succeed and survive. America has a heritage of consumerism and free enterprise, and both will be back to normal once the danger of the virus abates. Central planning, with a government deciding who gets to recover and who doesn't, will be a bad idea. Landlords will need tenants again, and the perfect tenant will be a business owner who has already been successful before the shutdown. We will end up paying more for much of the stuff that we now get, especially if top leadership (that means, for now, the President and state Governors) fail to their jobs.  

The shorter the shutdown, the easier it will be for people to return to old habits that allow profitable businesses to operate and the less erosion people will find in their workplace skills.  Above all, the less will be the disruption in the collection of taxes and payment of bills. But note well: any relaxation of the shutdown that allows people to spread a disease that so far has killed more than 5% of its victims could devastate America. Unless COVID-19 is stopped, all that will stop it is for the disease to run out of potential victims. How does 15 million deaths sound to you?  Such would far surpass the death rate of the American Civil War.


I doubt that you fully understand how dangerous this disease is. You are not alone in that.  Some people are stupid enough to participate in protests of the shutdown, often failing to do social distancing or to wear masks. Be safe. Don't contract it. 

If nearly everyone is taking a similar hit, then  we will recover more or less alike.    

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-02-2020, 05:29 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: If nearly everyone is taking a similar hit, then  we will recover more or less alike.  

Not clear at all there is a similar response. The smart countries may have testing and may open up only after they are ready. If so, they may come back up to stay before we do. An early US reopening could well be delaying rather than an acceleration, but either way it looks like a killer.

[pbrower2a]

2909 today.

War is hell. So is COVID-19.