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(05-07-2020, 04:43 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (05-07-2020, 10:07 AM)David Horn Wrote: (05-06-2020, 09:00 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (05-06-2020, 09:21 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: If you wondered how I estimated a death rate I divided deaths into total cases. Can the death rate change? Sure, but beware of the cytokine storms that may have killed so many apparently-healthy young people in the influenza pandemic of a century ago.
I thought so. The total cases at the moment doesn't reflect the total amount of people who have had/ been treated for COVID19 so far. Once testing comes on line, the total cases will most likely rise substantially so don't freak out when it happens.
The best estimate of current cases: 10X the number reported. That's heartening in that most are very minor or totally asymptomatic. What's not so good is the issue of spread. If you have no idea that many of the people you see out-and-about are actually spreaders, how do you avoid being a victim?
You avoid COVID19 the same way you avoid climate change, I guess.
COVID-19 has far more in common with HIV-AIDS than with climate change. But as a point of relevance -- climate change in the sens of anthropogenic global warming could easily be the focus of the Crisis of 2020, especially if hundreds of millions of peasant farmers find their lands inundated. At least when Stalin seized lands from the peasants, the peasants could survive as serfs of the 'socialist' state. King Neptune offers no such miserable alternative.
Otherwise you have offered nothing more than a red herring.
Oh, by the way --there is no proof that having gotten COVID-19 protects one from its mutations, but as the report I offered you said, it can certainly do much damage even if the respiratory disease vanishes..
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(05-07-2020, 04:43 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (05-07-2020, 10:07 AM)David Horn Wrote: (05-06-2020, 09:00 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (05-06-2020, 09:21 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: If you wondered how I estimated a death rate I divided deaths into total cases. Can the death rate change? Sure, but beware of the cytokine storms that may have killed so many apparently-healthy young people in the influenza pandemic of a century ago.
I thought so. The total cases at the moment doesn't reflect the total amount of people who have had/ been treated for COVID19 so far. Once testing comes on line, the total cases will most likely rise substantially so don't freak out when it happens.
The best estimate of current cases: 10X the number reported. That's heartening in that most are very minor or totally asymptomatic. What's not so good is the issue of spread. If you have no idea that many of the people you see out-and-about are actually spreaders, how do you avoid being a victim?
You avoid COVID19 the same way you avoid climate change, I guess.
Short of aggressive testing, it's nearly impossible to dodge COVID-19. On the other hand, it's completely impossible to dodge climate change. So your answer seems to be: die in place. Thanks, but I'll take other more appealing options.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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05-07-2020, 06:36 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2020, 06:40 PM by Eric the Green.)
We are starting to see Texas, Florida, Georgia etc ramp up their new cases and deaths. CA is starting to do better, and Louisiana which was hit hard and administered lots of deaths is doing better. Texas Florida and Georgia have many more new cases and deaths now.
Two countries who went the way of Trump and the Republican Party and locked down slowly, Brazil and the UK, are surging in cases and deaths. The Trump clones and Trump worshippers have failed and should pay the price.
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(05-07-2020, 06:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: We are starting to see Texas, Florida, Georgia etc ramp up their new cases and deaths.
Wishful thinking on your part, and incorrect. A quick check of the graphs on their wikipedia pages show Georgia's and Texas' new cases per day have been approximately constant for the past month. Florida's have actually declined.
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05-07-2020, 07:38 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2020, 09:49 PM by Eric the Green.)
You did not look on the worldometer. On my phone it's harder to post the link, but I have posted it before. Why aren't you checking it? Get with it! Wikipedia depends on volunteers posting from other sources. It is not the best source for immediate data. Why don't you know that? You are smart there's no excuse.
USA has something like 1,292, 000 cases. The 2nd most infected country Spain has 260,000 cases. This virus is nothing less than full indictment of what happens when we turn over our country to trickle down libertarian policies. We are the epicenter of the virus. Republicans make abominable leaders and should pay the price!
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(05-07-2020, 06:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: We are starting to see Texas, Florida, Georgia etc ramp up their new cases and deaths. CA is starting to do better, and Louisiana which was hit hard and administered lots of deaths is doing better. Texas Florida and Georgia have many more new cases and deaths now.
Two countries who went the way of Trump and the Republican Party and locked down slowly, Brazil and the UK, are surging in cases and deaths. The Trump clones and Trump worshippers have failed and should pay the price.
You'll be seeing Minnesota's numbers ramping up too. I've heard it takes about a month for a COVID19 patient stricken by the virus to die. Here's the deal, we don't live in China, Russia, the former Soviet Union, the old British Empire, the old Southern Confederacy or the old Jim Crow states, Saudi Arabia, Iran and so forth. You think we should but unfortunately for you we don't live there these days. I hope you have enough supplies on hand to survive on your own for a year or two. If death scares you, your best bet to stay home and avoid all possibility of human contact/contamination until we are all dead.
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05-07-2020, 08:13 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2020, 08:14 PM by Warren Dew.)
(05-07-2020, 07:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You did not look on the worldometer. On my phone it's harder to post the link, but I have posted it before. Why aren't you checking it? Get with it! Wikipedia depends on volunteers posting from other sources. It is not the best source for immediate data. Why don't you know that? You are smart there's no excuse.
These wikipedia pages are updated more frequently than daily, so they are as up to date as I care about. In addition, they use consistent sources, which I don't think Worldometer does - I know Johns Hopkins doesn't - and the sources are in footnotes so I can track them down if I want to double check the data myself.
That said, I checked Worldometer and their trends match Wikipedia's - Georgia and Texas basically constant in new cases in the past month, and Florida falling. Worldometer does have prettier graphs, so I might be consulting it more in the future, thanks.
Quote:USA has something like 2,600 000 cases. The 2nd most infected country Spain has 260,000 cases. This virus is nothing less than full indictment of what happens when we turn over our country to trickle down libertarian policies. We are the epicenter of the virus. Republicans make abominable leaders and should pay the price!
The US has a lot more detected cases than Spain partly because we're bigger, but also partly because we have a better testing program. On a per million population basis, Spain has more deaths.
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(05-07-2020, 07:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You did not look on the worldometer. On my phone it's harder to post the link, but I have posted it before. Why aren't you checking it? Get with it! Wikipedia depends on volunteers posting from other sources. It is not the best source for immediate data. Why don't you know that? You are smart there's no excuse.
USA has something like 2,600 000 cases. The 2nd most infected country Spain has 260,000 cases. This virus is nothing less than full indictment of what happens when we turn over our country to trickle down libertarian policies. We are the epicenter of the virus. Republicans make abominable leaders and should pay the price!
The USA has a population of 320 some million. Why don't you know that, the worldometer didn't tell you that? I'm going to guess that Spain's population is 30 some million compared to our 320 some million. It's just a guess based on some numbers.
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05-07-2020, 08:59 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2020, 10:43 PM by Eric the Green.)
(05-07-2020, 08:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: (05-07-2020, 07:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You did not look on the worldometer. On my phone it's harder to post the link, but I have posted it before. Why aren't you checking it? Get with it! Wikipedia depends on volunteers posting from other sources. It is not the best source for immediate data. Why don't you know that? You are smart there's no excuse.
These wikipedia pages are updated more frequently than daily, so they are as up to date as I care about. In addition, they use consistent sources, which I don't think Worldometer does - I know Johns Hopkins doesn't - and the sources are in footnotes so I can track them down if I want to double check the data myself.
That said, I checked Worldometer and their trends match Wikipedia's - Georgia and Texas basically constant in new cases in the past month, and Florida falling. Worldometer does have prettier graphs, so I might be consulting it more in the future, thanks.
Quote:USA has something like 2,600 000 cases. The 2nd most infected country Spain has 260,000 cases. This virus is nothing less than full indictment of what happens when we turn over our country to trickle down libertarian policies. We are the epicenter of the virus. Republicans make abominable leaders and should pay the price!
The US has a lot more detected cases than Spain partly because we're bigger, but also partly because we have a better testing program. On a per million population basis, Spain has more deaths.
The wikipedia pages do not have up to date data. What I mentioned was what things were starting to be like, not what they were over the last month before today. That is the point you missed, due to your own wishful thinking. The point is that these states have Republican MIS-governors who have just started opening up their economies now, following Drump's wishes. According to the figures on worldometer today, they have more new cases than before, many more than Louisiana which has a Democratic governor and is proceeding more carefully. Louisiana was in the top 5 states and getting worse a month or so ago. Now it is 11th. Washington was first and is now 18th. Those states with responsible governors have declined relative to the other states.
The virus came on planes from tourists in Europe to New York and New Jersey and Massachusetts and spread from there across many states with people who travel and have money (mostly blue states). This happened because Trump did not stop or test people coming into the USA from Europe in time. Red states are more rural and poor and so did not get infected as quickly. So far India and China have far more people and far fewer cases because of the policies they pursued. The USA, UK and Brazil have the most new cases now because of their Trumpist policies and leaders. Sweden has more than its share because it did not lock down. Russia has the most new cases next to the USA now, but far fewer deaths, and far more testing so far.
I don't wish for the USA to catch up with Spain and the UK in total deaths per capita. But it probably will. Deaths take longer to happen than new cases. We don't have a better testing program than most EU countries. Our per capita or per million pop testing is lower than many of them.
Germany has had the best testing program in the EU, and has far fewer deaths and is declining in the "standings" among countries for cases. China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, New Zealand, Australia and some European countries are having the smallest number of new cases and deaths now.
If you refuse to check worldometer, then your data is out of date. They have stats for the world, the USA, the states, and even counties within many states now. My county of Santa Clara, the first on the west coast to be infected, is doing well right now. Los Angeles is doing better now than it was, and so is New York. NY only had less than 4000 new cases today, after having about 10,000 a day for many weeks. And yet the total new cases per day for the USA is still at 30,000. So the virus is increasing in other places besides New York and California now.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
We'll see what happens in the coming weeks in the states that open up too soon.
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(05-07-2020, 05:48 PM)David Horn Wrote: Short of aggressive testing, it's nearly impossible to dodge COVID-19. On the other hand, it's completely impossible to dodge climate change. So your answer seems to be: die in place. Thanks, but I'll take other more appealing options.
You could buy a hazmat suit for you and your wife and the family members that you love the most and wait out the virus as we all die
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05-07-2020, 09:10 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2020, 10:37 PM by Eric the Green.)
(05-07-2020, 08:23 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (05-07-2020, 07:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You did not look on the worldometer. On my phone it's harder to post the link, but I have posted it before. Why aren't you checking it? Get with it! Wikipedia depends on volunteers posting from other sources. It is not the best source for immediate data. Why don't you know that? You are smart there's no excuse.
USA has something like 1,292,623 cases. The 2nd most infected country Spain has 256,000 cases.
This virus is nothing less than full indictment of what happens when we turn over our country to trickle down libertarian policies. We are the epicenter of the virus. Republicans make abominable leaders and should pay the price!
The USA has a population of 320 some million. Why don't you know that, the worldometer didn't tell you that? I'm going to guess that Spain's population is 30 some million compared to our 320 some million. It's just a guess based on some numbers.
Spain 2020 population is estimated at 46,754,778 people at mid year according to UN data
place / total cases / +new cases / total deaths / +new deaths / population
World 3,913,643 +96,261 270,426 +5,589
USA 1,292,623 +29,531 76,928 +2,129 331,002,651
Spain 256,855 +3,173 26,070 +213 46,754,778
Italy 215,858 +1,401 29,958 +274 60,461,826
UK 206,715 +5,614 30,615 +539 67,886,011
Russia 177,160 +11,231 1,625 +88 145,934,462
France 174,791 +600 25,987 +178 65,273,511
Germany 169,430 +1,268 7,392 +117 83,783,942
Brazil 135,693 +9,082 9,188 +600 212,559,417
Turkey 133,721 +1,977 3,641 +57 84,339,067
Iran 103,135 +1,485 6,486 +68 83,992,949
China 82,885 +2 4,633 +0 1,439,323,776
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ as of May 7-8, 2020 12 AM GMT/UT
https://www.worldometers.info/world-popu...y-country/ (can see updated numbers with live population clock link)
I corrected my data on # of USA cases by checking on worldometer.
Spain is still ahead of the USA in cases per M pop. Most other nations are behind (and most are far behind) the USA in that respect, including the other top 14 and every other nation except some small and very small and dense ones in Europe, and Qatar. The situation is almost the same with # of deaths per 1 M. Among EU nations, Spain, Italy, France, Belgium and Netherlands still have more deaths per 1M than the USA.
The number of NEW cases per M is obviously already higher than those in the USA in the Trumpist countries of the brexited UK and the Bolsonaro-ed Brazil.
Right now the number of new cases in the USA is over 9 times that of Spain, and the number of new deaths in the USA is exactly 10 times the number of those in Spain, which has 1/7 the population of the USA. Spain's rate of testing is far higher than in the USA.
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(05-07-2020, 08:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (05-07-2020, 08:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: (05-07-2020, 07:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You did not look on the worldometer. On my phone it's harder to post the link, but I have posted it before. Why aren't you checking it? Get with it! Wikipedia depends on volunteers posting from other sources. It is not the best source for immediate data. Why don't you know that? You are smart there's no excuse.
These wikipedia pages are updated more frequently than daily, so they are as up to date as I care about. In addition, they use consistent sources, which I don't think Worldometer does - I know Johns Hopkins doesn't - and the sources are in footnotes so I can track them down if I want to double check the data myself.
That said, I checked Worldometer and their trends match Wikipedia's - Georgia and Texas basically constant in new cases in the past month, and Florida falling. Worldometer does have prettier graphs, so I might be consulting it more in the future, thanks.
Quote:USA has something like 2,600 000 cases. The 2nd most infected country Spain has 260,000 cases. This virus is nothing less than full indictment of what happens when we turn over our country to trickle down libertarian policies. We are the epicenter of the virus. Republicans make abominable leaders and should pay the price!
The US has a lot more detected cases than Spain partly because we're bigger, but also partly because we have a better testing program. On a per million population basis, Spain has more deaths.
The wikipedia pages do not have up to date data. What I mentioned was what things were starting to be like, not what they were over the last month before today. That is the point you missed, due to your own wishful thinking. The point is that these states have Republican MIS-governors who have just started opening up their economies now, following Drump's wishes. According to the figures on worldometer today, they have more new cases than before, many more than Louisiana which has a Democratic governor and is proceeding more carefully. Louisiana was in the top 5 states and getting worse a month or so ago. Now it is 11th. Washington was first and is now 18th. Those states with responsible governors have declined relative to the other states.
The USA has far more cases than can be accounted for by the size of our population. It has 10 times more than the number 2 nation and far more than that of any other nation. The virus came on planes from tourists to New York and New Jersey and Massachusetts and spread from there across many states with people who travel and have money (blue states). This happened because Trump did not stop or test people coming into the USA from Europe in time. So far India and China have far more people and far fewer cases because of the policies they pursued. The USA, UK and Brazil have the most new cases now because of their Trumpist policies and leaders. Sweden has more than its share because it did not lock down. Russia has the most new cases next to the USA now, but far fewer deaths, and far more testing so far.
I don't wish for the USA to catch up with Spain and the UK in total deaths per capita. But it probably will. Deaths take longer to happen than new cases. We don't have a better testing program than most EU countries. Our per capita or per million pop testing is lower than many of them.
Germany has had the best testing program in the EU, and has far fewer deaths and is declining in the "standings" among countries for cases. China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, New Zealand, Australia and some European countries are having the smallest number of new cases and deaths now.
If you refuse to check worldometer, then your data is out of date. They have stats for the world, the USA, the states, and even counties within many states now. My county of Santa Clara, the first on the west coast to be infected, is doing well right now. Los Angeles is doing better now than it was, and so is New York. NY only had less than 4000 new cases today, after having about 10,000 a day for many weeks. And yet the total new cases per day for the USA is still at 30,000. So the virus is increasing in other places besides New York and California now.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
As testing increases, the amount of known cases are going to increase as well. Like I said, the blue state of Minnesota with a Democratic governor and a Republican legislature will be seeing an increase in both categories along with the red states that you're pointing out now.
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05-07-2020, 09:30 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2020, 09:41 PM by Classic-Xer.)
(05-07-2020, 09:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (05-07-2020, 08:23 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (05-07-2020, 07:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You did not look on the worldometer. On my phone it's harder to post the link, but I have posted it before. Why aren't you checking it? Get with it! Wikipedia depends on volunteers posting from other sources. It is not the best source for immediate data. Why don't you know that? You are smart there's no excuse.
USA has something like 2,600 000 cases. The 2nd most infected country Spain has 260,000 cases. This virus is nothing less than full indictment of what happens when we turn over our country to trickle down libertarian policies. We are the epicenter of the virus. Republicans make abominable leaders and should pay the price!
The USA has a population of 320 some million. Why don't you know that, the worldometer didn't tell you that? I'm going to guess that Spain's population is 30 some million compared to our 320 some million. It's just a guess based on some numbers.
Spain 2020 population is estimated at 46,754,778 people at mid year according to UN data
place / total cases / +new cases / total deaths / +new deaths / population
World 3,913,643 +96,261 270,426 +5,589
USA 1,292,623 +29,531 76,928 +2,129 332,639,102
Spain 256,855 +3,173 26,070 +213 46,754,778
Italy 215,858 +1,401 29,958 +274 60,461,826
UK 206,715 +5,614 30,615 +539 67,886,011
Russia 177,160 +11,231 1,625 +88 141,722,205
France 174,791 +600 25,987 +178 65,273,511
Germany 169,430 +1,268 7,392 +117 83,783,942
Brazil 135,693 +9,082 9,188 +600 211,715,973
Turkey 133,721 +1,977 3,641 +57 84,339,067
Iran 103,135 +1,485 6,486 +68 83,992,949
China 82,885 +2 4,633 0 1,394,015,977
Not bad for a guess. As you now see, Spain's population is significantly lower than ours. So, you should/can expect our numbers to be higher/worse than theirs from here on.
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(05-07-2020, 05:09 PM)David Horn Wrote: So, I assume you think you're bulletproof. That wasn't the case in 1919-20, when the urban part of the Spanish Flu petered out, but the flu marched on into the less populated areas and wreaked havoc there. True, some areas dodged the bullet entirely, but some cities had little flu as well. Are you a gambler?
I'm not bullet proof. I'm not worried about COVID19 killing me. As far as I know, it's 2020 and we've advanced quite a bit since the last pandemic. My grandparents survived the last one. I'm living proof of that fact. The last pandemic delayed my grandfather's deployment to France during World War I. I've got a picture of him and some buddies wearing their Dough Boy uniforms after completing basic training.
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(05-07-2020, 07:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You did not look on the worldometer. On my phone it's harder to post the link, but I have posted it before. Why aren't you checking it? Get with it! Wikipedia depends on volunteers posting from other sources. It is not the best source for immediate data. Why don't you know that? You are smart there's no excuse.
USA has something like 1,292, 000 cases. The 2nd most infected country Spain has 260,000 cases. This virus is nothing less than full indictment of what happens when we turn over our country to trickle down libertarian policies. We are the epicenter of the virus. Republicans make abominable leaders and should pay the price!
What happened to the 2.6 million that you originally stated? You were off by 1.3 million or half.
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(05-07-2020, 10:40 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (05-07-2020, 07:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You did not look on the worldometer. On my phone it's harder to post the link, but I have posted it before. Why aren't you checking it? Get with it! Wikipedia depends on volunteers posting from other sources. It is not the best source for immediate data. Why don't you know that? You are smart there's no excuse.
USA has something like 1,292, 000 cases. The 2nd most infected country Spain has 260,000 cases. This virus is nothing less than full indictment of what happens when we turn over our country to trickle down libertarian policies. We are the epicenter of the virus. Republicans make abominable leaders and should pay the price!
What happened to the 2.6 million that you originally stated? You were off by 1.3 million or half.
I corrected myself. You should try it sometime.
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05-07-2020, 10:54 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2020, 10:57 PM by Eric the Green.)
(05-07-2020, 10:28 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (05-07-2020, 05:09 PM)David Horn Wrote: So, I assume you think you're bulletproof. That wasn't the case in 1919-20, when the urban part of the Spanish Flu petered out, but the flu marched on into the less populated areas and wreaked havoc there. True, some areas dodged the bullet entirely, but some cities had little flu as well. Are you a gambler?
I'm not bullet proof. I'm not worried about COVID19 killing me. As far as I know, it's 2020 and we've advanced quite a bit since the last pandemic. My grandparents survived the last one. I'm living proof of that fact. The last pandemic delayed my grandfather's deployment to France during World War I. I've got a picture of him and some buddies wearing their Dough Boy uniforms after completing basic training.
Quite a few survived the 1918 flu pandemic, vast as it was. My 4 grandparents survived and lived in less-urban states that are now red states. My grandfathers were too old for World War I, I guess.
I don't know if we've advanced too far, if we have allowed ourselves to become the epicenter of the pandemic because of backward libertarian-economics Republican policies. The best hope is that we have advanced in our ability to develop vaccines. Once our still-advanced scientists have developed this, how well will our backward government and economy distribute it to all the people? Will only the rich and insured get it? And how many will die in the red-state opened economies in the meantime?
Back when we had a genuine government, the USA was able to rid itself of diseases such as polio and measles. Now, thanks to rampant conspiracy theory mentality that has developed in the Republican era, measles is making a comeback.
Quote:Not bad for a guess. As you now see, Spain's population is significantly lower than ours. So, you should/can expect our numbers to be higher/worse than theirs from here on.
And worse per Million population as well, since in new cases the USA is already higher per 1M pop than Spain's. Or did you see that?
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05-08-2020, 08:58 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-08-2020, 08:59 AM by Warren Dew.)
(05-07-2020, 08:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The wikipedia pages do not have up to date data. What I mentioned was what things were starting to be like, not what they were over the last month before today. That is the point you missed, due to your own wishful thinking. The point is that these states have Republican MIS-governors who have just started opening up their economies now, following Drump's wishes. According to the figures on worldometer today, they have more new cases than before, many more than Louisiana which has a Democratic governor and is proceeding more carefully. Louisiana was in the top 5 states and getting worse a month or so ago. Now it is 11th. Washington was first and is now 18th. Those states with responsible governors have declined relative to the other states.
The virus came on planes from tourists in Europe to New York and New Jersey and Massachusetts and spread from there across many states with people who travel and have money (mostly blue states). This happened because Trump did not stop or test people coming into the USA from Europe in time. Red states are more rural and poor and so did not get infected as quickly. So far India and China have far more people and far fewer cases because of the policies they pursued. The USA, UK and Brazil have the most new cases now because of their Trumpist policies and leaders. Sweden has more than its share because it did not lock down. Russia has the most new cases next to the USA now, but far fewer deaths, and far more testing so far.
I don't wish for the USA to catch up with Spain and the UK in total deaths per capita. But it probably will. Deaths take longer to happen than new cases. We don't have a better testing program than most EU countries. Our per capita or per million pop testing is lower than many of them.
Germany has had the best testing program in the EU, and has far fewer deaths and is declining in the "standings" among countries for cases. China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, New Zealand, Australia and some European countries are having the smallest number of new cases and deaths now.
If you refuse to check worldometer, then your data is out of date. They have stats for the world, the USA, the states, and even counties within many states now. My county of Santa Clara, the first on the west coast to be infected, is doing well right now. Los Angeles is doing better now than it was, and so is New York. NY only had less than 4000 new cases today, after having about 10,000 a day for many weeks. And yet the total new cases per day for the USA is still at 30,000. So the virus is increasing in other places besides New York and California now.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
We'll see what happens in the coming weeks in the states that open up too soon.
I like how whenever something bad happens to a blue state, you blame Republicans - like blaming Trump for late cutoff of travel from Europe for the northeast's problems - but when something good happens to a blue state, you credit Democrats - as with the relatively good results on the West Coast. At a minimum if you blame Trump's later shutdown of travel from Europe for the fact that the East Coast did worse, you should credit Trump's earlier shutdown of travel from China for the fact that the West coast did better!
I do like the fact that you generally pay attention to the facts, even when they aren't convenient - unlike most other politically blue posters on this site, who are just in denial about any facts that don't support their agenda.
When I look at the Worldometer graphs, they cut off at May 1, so they are hardly up to date. Maybe you are looking at some blip in the figures that haven't made it to Wikipedia yet, but if so, we'll see it in a couple of weeks, as you suggest.
For my part, I think Georgia could have problems. The trend lines in Texas might steepen, but given how minor the whole Covid-19 issue is there, the benefits of raising the lockdown will be far greater there than an increase in the Covid-19 trend lines. Let's not forget that an economic shutdown kills people too.
Florida I think will be okay, as their new cases have a falling trend at present, and they're not reopening the blue counties where that would cause a problem.
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05-08-2020, 10:43 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-08-2020, 10:58 AM by Eric the Green.)
(05-08-2020, 08:58 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: (05-07-2020, 08:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The wikipedia pages do not have up to date data. What I mentioned was what things were starting to be like, not what they were over the last month before today. That is the point you missed, due to your own wishful thinking. The point is that these states have Republican MIS-governors who have just started opening up their economies now, following Drump's wishes. According to the figures on worldometer today, they have more new cases than before, many more than Louisiana which has a Democratic governor and is proceeding more carefully. Louisiana was in the top 5 states and getting worse a month or so ago. Now it is 11th. Washington was first and is now 18th. Those states with responsible governors have declined relative to the other states.
The virus came on planes from tourists in Europe to New York and New Jersey and Massachusetts and spread from there across many states with people who travel and have money (mostly blue states). This happened because Trump did not stop or test people coming into the USA from Europe in time. Red states are more rural and poor and so did not get infected as quickly. So far India and China have far more people and far fewer cases because of the policies they pursued. The USA, UK and Brazil have the most new cases now because of their Trumpist policies and leaders. Sweden has more than its share because it did not lock down. Russia has the most new cases next to the USA now, but far fewer deaths, and far more testing so far.
I don't wish for the USA to catch up with Spain and the UK in total deaths per capita. But it probably will. Deaths take longer to happen than new cases. We don't have a better testing program than most EU countries. Our per capita or per million pop testing is lower than many of them.
Germany has had the best testing program in the EU, and has far fewer deaths and is declining in the "standings" among countries for cases. China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, New Zealand, Australia and some European countries are having the smallest number of new cases and deaths now.
If you refuse to check worldometer, then your data is out of date. They have stats for the world, the USA, the states, and even counties within many states now. My county of Santa Clara, the first on the west coast to be infected, is doing well right now. Los Angeles is doing better now than it was, and so is New York. NY only had less than 4000 new cases today, after having about 10,000 a day for many weeks. And yet the total new cases per day for the USA is still at 30,000. So the virus is increasing in other places besides New York and California now.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
We'll see what happens in the coming weeks in the states that open up too soon.
I like how whenever something bad happens to a blue state, you blame Republicans - like blaming Trump for late cutoff of travel from Europe for the northeast's problems - but when something good happens to a blue state, you credit Democrats - as with the relatively good results on the West Coast. At a minimum if you blame Trump's later shutdown of travel from Europe for the fact that the East Coast did worse, you should credit Trump's earlier shutdown of travel from China for the fact that the West coast did better!
I do like the fact that you generally pay attention to the facts, even when they aren't convenient - unlike most other politically blue posters on this site, who are just in denial about any facts that don't support their agenda.
When I look at the Worldometer graphs, they cut off at May 1, so they are hardly up to date. Maybe you are looking at some blip in the figures that haven't made it to Wikipedia yet, but if so, we'll see it in a couple of weeks, as you suggest.
For my part, I think Georgia could have problems. The trend lines in Texas might steepen, but given how minor the whole Covid-19 issue is there, the benefits of raising the lockdown will be far greater there than an increase in the Covid-19 trend lines. Let's not forget that an economic shutdown kills people too.
Florida I think will be okay, as their new cases have a falling trend at present, and they're not reopening the blue counties where that would cause a problem.
Trump does get credit for cutting off travel from China, which he endlessly does for himself. It was also a bit late, however. And those states and countries with effective shutdowns have done the best, there's no doubt about that. If the virus cases continue to rise, the shutdowns will be re-imposed.
The worldometer is up to date to the minute. If you click on yesterday, you can see the totals as of Midnight GMT for each day. We'll see what the trend is, but Florida also saw a rise in new cases yesterday, much more than Louisiana which is close to it in total cases along with Texas and Georgia. If you follow the numbers daily you can get an idea of the trend without a graph or make your own. That the USA continues to get 30,000 new cases each day is clear. You can see the numbers for the states and the countries each day. The Trumpist countries of the USA, UK and Brazil which shut down too late now have the fastest-rising number of cases, along with Trump sponsor Putin's Russia. The UK is now second place in total deaths.
If the economic shutdown kills people, it will be because the Republican congress has not provided enough support, and because Trump has withheld funds. The congress voted 2.2 trillion dollars. I would have thought that would be sufficient. These funds were to be provided to businesses as loans, which would be grants if they kept paying their employees, but many did not get them, while many large corporations who could have afforded paying their workers anyway did get them. In a depression, the federal government is supposed to provide relief. Trump has blown this crisis and should pay the price at the polls. He is today's Herbert Hoover. He is the USA's Louis XVI, the "executive that doesn't act." He wants to reopen the economy without providing the testing nationwide that is needed for this.
But the question is whether Trump and state Republican rulers will succeed in November 2020 in suppressing the vote. They succeeded in Wisconsin, and Trump's Courts allowed it. That is a huge signal that our democracy is in severe danger. The Democrats won that primary election in a judicial race only because the Republicans weren't holding a primary. Trump wants to let the post office go under, and he wishes mail in voting to be suppressed. He and his cohorts want to limit early voting and make people vote at an inadequate number of polling places on election day in the midst of the pandemic, effectively telling voters to risk their lives to vote. This in addition to states with Republican governors or others who could manage to purge rolls unfairly.
If the vote is suppressed, the pitchforks and guillotines should come out and the people should do civil disobedience to stop the government from working. It will be time for an American Marseillaise. Whether such a revolt and general strike would work is another question. If Trump loses, then his attempt to rally his gun-toting supporters to bring off a coup in January will have to be defeated, and it could be bloody.
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Sweden never shut down, now its death rate AND its economy are worse than its neighbors
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/...=emaildkre
Daily Kos Staff
Thursday May 07, 2020 · 11:40 AM PDT
Many conservatives are in love with the idea of Sweden’s approach—no lockdown. They don’t take into consideration that half of Swedes live alone, or that they have a top-notch universal healthcare system. They just think “no lockdown” is a better response to the novel coronavirus pandemic.
If nothing else, Sweden’s alternative response to the virus was … a good control group. And what we’re learning now is that failing to shut down hasn’t just led to more deaths, but—surprise surprise!—it also didn’t prevent its economy from tanking. In fact, Sweden is poised for more economic pain than its neighbors.
Sweden is quickly rising up the ranks of the world leaders in deaths. Here is the world ranking of deaths per million residents, excluding micro-nations:
DEATHS PER MILLION
BELGIUM 726
SPAIN 558
ITALY 495
UK 451
FRANCE 395
NETHERLANDS 309
SWEDEN 301
IRELAND 284
USA 230
Sweden (like the United States) has been quickly moving up this horrid chart and will overtake the Netherlands sometime this weekend for the sixth spot in the world. Meanwhile, its neighbors following more standard shutdown protocols are looking pretty okay:
DEATHS PER MILLION
SWEDEN 301
DENMARK 89
FINLAND 46
NORWAY 40
It’s not even close. So Sweden is starting to wonder whether this all made sense. “[Anders] Tegnell, who has been leading the country's COVID-19 response and previously defended the nation's decision not to impose a lockdown, this week admitted he was ‘not convinced’ the unconventional anti-lockdown strategy was the best option to take," reported Newsweek. Tegnell called the death toll, now surpassing 3,000 dead, a “horrifyingly large number.”
But that sacrifice in blood at least saved the country’s economy, right? Well, that’s the funny part. (And not in a “ha ha” funny way.) “Sweden’s economy is expected to contract between 6.9% and 9.7%,” reported CNBC. Meanwhile, this is what the International Monetary Fund expects from other European countries:
ECONOMIC CONTRACTION
SWEDEN 6.9-9.7%
ITALY 9.1%
SPAIN 8%
FRANCE 7.2%
UK 7%
GERMANY 6.5%
DENMARK 6.5%
In a sane world, this controlled “experiment” would be reason enough for policymakers in the United States to hold back on reopening their states and the country. Instead, those ignoramuses are hell-bent on making the same obvious mistakes, pretending that returning to “business as usual” will rescue the country from economic calamity.
And sure, Republicans are stupid enough to go out and get infected, doing the virus’ dirty work for it. But the economy isn’t going anywhere as long as most people, who are sane and smart, refuse to put themselves in danger for a movie or haircut.
Or, to put it another way: It is impossible for the economy to rebound as long as a deadly virus is killing Americans at a clip of several thousand a day. If you don’t believe that, just look at Sweden.
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