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(05-18-2020, 04:30 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The facts on the ground say the climate is warmer in the south than in New York. If climate was the driving factor right now, New York would not be having fewer cases, the southern states more.
Wikipedia data shows that New York had 1889 new cases and 141 new deaths on the most recent day for which they had figures, May 16. By comparison, Texas had 785 new cases and 31 new deaths. Florida had 1189 new cases and 16 new deaths. The idea that New York has "fewer cases" is delusional.
I don't blame lying for your falsehood, though. It's clearly just cluelessness.
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05-18-2020, 11:38 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-18-2020, 05:08 PM by Bob Butler 54.)
(05-18-2020, 10:12 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: (05-18-2020, 04:30 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The facts on the ground say the climate is warmer in the south than in New York. If climate was the driving factor right now, New York would not be having fewer cases, the southern states more.
Wikipedia data shows that New York had 1889 new cases and 141 new deaths on the most recent day for which they had figures, May 16. By comparison, Texas had 785 new cases and 31 new deaths. Florida had 1189 new cases and 16 new deaths. The idea that New York has "fewer cases" is delusional.
I don't blame lying for your falsehood, though. It's clearly just cluelessness.
The CNN report has the northeast curves going down, the whole south going up. Clearly isolation policies are dominant over climate. Yes, the northeast got hit first. Their absolute values are higher. They peaked, at least for the first wave.
I don't interpret your misreading the numbers as deliberate lying, just cluelessness. We'll see if the models are correct, that we will have many more infections in the south in a few weeks, followed a few weeks later by more deaths.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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(05-18-2020, 11:38 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (05-18-2020, 10:12 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: (05-18-2020, 04:30 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The facts on the ground say the climate is warmer in the south than in New York. If climate was the driving factor right now, New York would not be having fewer cases, the southern states more.
Wikipedia data shows that New York had 1889 new cases and 141 new deaths on the most recent day for which they had figures, May 16. By comparison, Texas had 785 new cases and 31 new deaths. Florida had 1189 new cases and 16 new deaths. The idea that New York has "fewer cases" is delusional.
I don't blame lying for your falsehood, though. It's clearly just cluelessness.
The CNN report has the northeast curves going down, the whole south going up. Clearly isolation policies are dominant over climate. Yes, the northeast got hit first. Their absolute values are higher. They peaked, at least for the first wave.
I don't interpret your misreading the numbers as deliberate lying, just cluelessness. We'll see if the models are correct, that we will have many more infections in a few weeks, followed by more deaths.
The difference between summer and winter is far sharper in the northern US than in the South (the West Coast excepted)... people adopted stronger countermeasures Up North and Out West than in the South. There were exceptions that generally relate to R-dominated politics, which means that Iowa and Nebraska have been fitting the bad patterns of Southern states. The Northeastern quadrant and the Far West got hit earlier and harder but responded faster. It is often a question of who the Governor is, which explains why South Dakota is in far worse shape than is Kentucky.
COVID-19 is apparently not a quick-kill, so deaths lag new cases by a considerable time.
No reasonable person expects a higher and hotter sun to kill off the plague by itself. As with AIDS (which infects people with very different means of transmission), people are changing their ways for a duration if they have any wisdom. Note well that a cluster of infected people in Wisconsin connects closely to an anti-shutdown rally. Did you notice that there are no counter-protesters?
It may be that a state like Massachusetts can open earlier and safer than can Georgia. If there is any lasting effect it will be that populist disdain for scientific evidence will be less common.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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05-18-2020, 05:06 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-18-2020, 05:10 PM by Bob Butler 54.)
(05-18-2020, 03:54 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: It may be that a state like Massachusetts can open earlier and safer than can Georgia. If there is any lasting effect it will be that populist disdain for scientific evidence will be less common.
We're opening shortly in Massachusetts, and in steps. It is similar to New York, in phases, by the numbers, with potential for steps backwards if (or more accurately, when) outbreaks are detected. My sister grumbled in a phone call today that we older people are step 4 of 4, but we both have every intent of complying. The basic blue alliance of states scheme.
We both also agreed that we had seen lots of people out walking, pretty well following distancing rules. I would likely be out too but for my traditional May pollen allergies. In addition to the conoravirus no going out, the windows are staying closed and the air filter is running.
Does a truck hit by a kid driving a golf cart violate distancing? If so, we had a violation yesterday.  One of the local adults runs a golf cart company. Have you ever wondered where old golf carts go to die? Our lake is full of them.
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(05-18-2020, 05:06 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: We're opening shortly in Massachusetts, and in steps.
Well, we're pretending to open. Factories can reopen, but reopening that most people will notice is delayed until unscheduled later. Unfortunately, it seems that our normally sensible Republican governor has ben cowed by leftist special interests.
Quote:We both also agreed that we had seen lots of people out walking, pretty well following distancing rules.
I drove to the computer repair shop yesterday and was initially pleased that everyone was wearing masks. On the way home I noticed a bunch of scofflaws. There was one man without a mask entirely, two who had their masks around their necks, and four women who had their masks over their mouths but not their noses.
Leave it to leftists to ignore the actual effective measures while pushing the ineffective economy killing measures.
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(05-18-2020, 09:50 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I think Eric listens best to the beat of his own drummer, to the point of not noticing the Ohio State band marching by.
Not of the money over life school. You don’t seem to listen at all.
If I have to explain why the Democrats and Republicans dislike each other, you aren’t paying attention anyway.
As I have tried to say but you don’t listen, I’m all for opening up if you do so while keeping R0 below one while you do it. You seem to be taking the necessary precautions. If so, by all means open up.
I'm not sure who Eric listens to but they are likely as delusional as he is. Again I blame him smoking too much LSD in the 60s or something.
I'm not either but money IS necessary for life. I don't know if you are independently wealthy or what but most people have to work jobs to get the money to buy the groceries and pay the mortgage. I am such a person. My employees are such people.
I understand the political divide, probably better than you do. Let me tell you no Democrat hates anyone more than a Black Republican. I doubt if you went over to the GOP you would have family members accusing you of betraying your race among other things.
I am taking those precautions that I believe are necessary, are recommended and will lower my liability should the worst happen. That is called good business sense. I have worked far too hard for far too long to allow a virus to destroy everything--but that's a Nomad for you.
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(05-18-2020, 11:38 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (05-18-2020, 10:12 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: (05-18-2020, 04:30 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The facts on the ground say the climate is warmer in the south than in New York. If climate was the driving factor right now, New York would not be having fewer cases, the southern states more.
Wikipedia data shows that New York had 1889 new cases and 141 new deaths on the most recent day for which they had figures, May 16. By comparison, Texas had 785 new cases and 31 new deaths. Florida had 1189 new cases and 16 new deaths. The idea that New York has "fewer cases" is delusional.
I don't blame lying for your falsehood, though. It's clearly just cluelessness.
The CNN report has the northeast curves going down, the whole south going up. Clearly isolation policies are dominant over climate. Yes, the northeast got hit first. Their absolute values are higher. They peaked, at least for the first wave.
I don't interpret your misreading the numbers as deliberate lying, just cluelessness. We'll see if the models are correct, that we will have many more infections in the south in a few weeks, followed a few weeks later by more deaths.
New York/New Jersey and Texas and Florida are apples to apples comparisons. CNN's data is probably at the best flawed and at worst an open lie. Given how much CNN lies about everything the latter wouldn't surprise me. Perhaps the CDC would be better.
https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/
According to the CDC the state by state Breakdown is as follows:
NY: 19,337 New Cases in the past 7 days
NJ: 10,356 New Cases in the past 7 days
FL: 5,587 New cases in the past 7 days
TX: 9,924 New cases in the past 7 days.
Since we're talking about transmission rate it is clear that NY and NJ DO NOT have coronaviris under control (not that FL or TX claim that they do). Texas' numbers seem higher because they are doing a lot more testing where as testing in FL is ramping down.
According to CNN the states with the highest rate rise are South Dakota and Arkansas. Both cases are rural states which lack transportation hubs and are perhaps the last gasp of this round of coronavirus and once those rates fall from it burning through the population or running out of time climatically we won't see it there again till fall.
As for the models...they are notoriously wrong. After all they were predicting 2 million dead and we aren't even a 10th of that. Perhaps it is the same models that the so-called climate conspiracy theorists scientists use to predict that there would be no snow on Kilimanjaro in 2010.
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CNN reports that Trump says he is taking hydroxychloroquine though health experts question its effectiveness.
But I suspect he is not taking enough of it for the good of the country.
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It seems the White House really got into the Cubic Model made some time ago. It was build not by an epidemic specialist, but a financial advisor. It is a not really a model of something real, but a curve fit which can be done by Excel, though there are slightly improved professional programs that do the same thing. Basically, you can feed in any set of data, and it will draw lines based on that data. If you ask it for a cubic curve fit on the virus case data of a while back, it will tell you that we will have zero cases by mid May.
Which is exactly the prediction Pence made a few days ago. The virus will go away by mid May. Sound familiar?
Of course, the curve fit which worked for the old data does not fit so well today. You would get a really different result, as you would get if you asked Excel for a straight line fit, or an exponential fit. But... the White House stuck with the obsolete data and the type of curve that could show a favorable result. If they were going to go with a curve fit, the least they could do is run it daily as the data base grew.
Anyway, the curve fit 'model' told them what they wanted to hear, so they based the federal response off the curve fit.
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(05-18-2020, 05:34 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: (05-18-2020, 05:06 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: We're opening shortly in Massachusetts, and in steps.
Well, we're pretending to open. Factories can reopen, but reopening that most people will notice is delayed until unscheduled later. Unfortunately, it seems that our normally sensible Republican governor has ben cowed by leftist special interests.
Quote:We both also agreed that we had seen lots of people out walking, pretty well following distancing rules.
I drove to the computer repair shop yesterday and was initially pleased that everyone was wearing masks. On the way home I noticed a bunch of scofflaws. There was one man without a mask entirely, two who had their masks around their necks, and four women who had their masks over their mouths but not their noses.
Leave it to leftists to ignore the actual effective measures while pushing the ineffective economy killing measures.
The Democrats rescued the economy by pushing 2 trillion dollars to shore it up, but Trump sent a lot of it to his big business cronies, and now they wonder why their businesses are getting killed.
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05-18-2020, 11:18 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-18-2020, 11:50 PM by Eric the Green.)
(05-18-2020, 11:38 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (05-18-2020, 10:12 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: (05-18-2020, 04:30 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The facts on the ground say the climate is warmer in the south than in New York. If climate was the driving factor right now, New York would not be having fewer cases, the southern states more.
Wikipedia data shows that New York had 1889 new cases and 141 new deaths on the most recent day for which they had figures, May 16. By comparison, Texas had 785 new cases and 31 new deaths. Florida had 1189 new cases and 16 new deaths. The idea that New York has "fewer cases" is delusional.
I don't blame lying for your falsehood, though. It's clearly just cluelessness.
The CNN report has the northeast curves going down, the whole south going up. Clearly isolation policies are dominant over climate. Yes, the northeast got hit first. Their absolute values are higher. They peaked, at least for the first wave.
I don't interpret your misreading the numbers as deliberate lying, just cluelessness. We'll see if the models are correct, that we will have many more infections in the south in a few weeks, followed a few weeks later by more deaths.
I mentioned before that worldometer has the most up-to-date figures on the virus
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
New York is now only #4 in the nation in new cases.
Graphs:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...de-graphs/
I saw the CNN report about the 4 regions on broadcast TV but can't find it on the web.
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(05-18-2020, 06:15 AM)David Horn Wrote: The shelter-in-place policy was intended to slow the spread, not eliminate it. Places that moved fast, like South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, managed to use isolation to actually bring the virus as close to zero as possible, assuming no foreign traveler brings it back. In the US, the primary focus was our healthcare system that was being overrun by new cases -- just like Italy.
And let's admit it: living in NYC or any other highly dense city, makes addressing a pandemic that infects so readily a nearly impossible goal to achieve.
The whole world woke up and realized that the shit was hitting the fan at about the same time.
The reason why Australia and New Zealand were able to stop the virus so effectively is that when everyone figured out what was going on, they had very few cases. By this time, the U.S. already had far too many cases for containment to be possible. In addition, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control completely fucked up and sent out non-working coronavirus test kits all over the country. By the time everyone figured out they didn't work and sent them all back and managed to get new ones, the disease was already everywhere.
The U.S. didn't do anything wrong (other than the test kit screwup), it just has too many people and got hit too hard too fast.
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05-18-2020, 11:54 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-19-2020, 12:14 AM by Eric the Green.)
(05-18-2020, 11:38 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: (05-18-2020, 06:15 AM)David Horn Wrote: The shelter-in-place policy was intended to slow the spread, not eliminate it. Places that moved fast, like South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, managed to use isolation to actually bring the virus as close to zero as possible, assuming no foreign traveler brings it back. In the US, the primary focus was our healthcare system that was being overrun by new cases -- just like Italy.
And let's admit it: living in NYC or any other highly dense city, makes addressing a pandemic that infects so readily a nearly impossible goal to achieve.
The whole world woke up and realized that the shit was hitting the fan at about the same time.
The reason why Australia and New Zealand were able to stop the virus so effectively is that when everyone figured out what was going on, they had very few cases. By this time, the U.S. already had far too many cases for containment to be possible. In addition, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control completely fucked up and sent out non-working coronavirus test kits all over the country. By the time everyone figured out they didn't work and sent them all back and managed to get new ones, the disease was already everywhere.
The U.S. didn't do anything wrong (other than the test kit screwup), it just has too many people and got hit too hard too fast.
No, the USA (Trump) did wrong. He didn't "figure out what was going on" because he actively denied it for over a month. People who deny or cover up this mistake only want to see Trump re-elected. He deserves to be thrown out on his ear in Nov.2020 and then put in jail for life. New Zealand, Australia and South Korea contained the virus earlier because they never denied it and took action quickly on a national basis, whereas Trump leaves everything to the governors, the UK under Trump-clone Johnson tried herd immunity (and got sick), and Brazil's Trump-clone leader said athletes like him would not get the disease.
San Francisco is as dense as New York, but contained the virus much better. Travellers home from China were quarantined. Meanwhile Trump was saying the virus was a hoax or would just go away while tourists flocked home to the eastern seaboard from Europe on airplanes and brought the virus home before anything could be done.
New Jersey, Florida and Southern California are seeing a rise in new cases because people are flocking to beaches and ignoring social distancing. We could see more new cases in these places in coming weeks.
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(05-18-2020, 11:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Democrats rescued the economy by pushing 2 trillion dollars to shore it up, but Trump sent a lot of it to his big business cronies, and now they wonder why their businesses are getting killed.
It was a bipartisan bill. The Democrats pushed economy killing measures like paying more to people in unemployment than they got when working, thus encouraging people to stay unemployed and helping to prevent the economy from recovering. The Republicans pushed economy preserving measures like small business loans to help keep people employed.
The pork for big oligopoly corporations was unsurprisingly pushed by both sides.
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CNN has a general article up, saying America's response to the coronavirus is the most American thing ever. Meaning, we are all over the place.
It reminds me of the Churchill quote. “Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.”
We seem to be working on the 'exhausting all other possibilities' part.
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05-19-2020, 03:45 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-19-2020, 03:57 PM by Eric the Green.)
(05-19-2020, 02:42 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN has a general article up, saying America's response to the coronavirus is the most American thing ever. Meaning, we are all over the place.
It reminds me of the Churchill quote. “Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.”
We seem to be working on the 'exhausting all other possibilities' part.
Or Bismarck's quote: "God looks after fools, drunkards and the United States of America." (also attributed to others earlier, referencing children instead of fools, and providence instead of God)
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05-19-2020, 03:49 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-19-2020, 03:49 PM by Eric the Green.)
(05-19-2020, 12:34 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: (05-18-2020, 11:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Democrats rescued the economy by pushing 2 trillion dollars to shore it up, but Trump sent a lot of it to his big business cronies, and now they wonder why their businesses are getting killed.
It was a bipartisan bill. The Democrats pushed economy killing measures like paying more to people in unemployment than they got when working, thus encouraging people to stay unemployed and helping to prevent the economy from recovering. The Republicans pushed economy preserving measures like small business loans to help keep people employed.
The pork for big oligopoly corporations was unsurprisingly pushed by both sides.
The pork was administered by Trump, as far as I can gather. He gave the benefit to his oligarchic supporters, his own class of which he is the patron and representative.
The Democrats pushed for the economy preserving measures too. During this unusual alignment of 4 planets around March 20-24, the Republicans came on board for one brief shining moment; now they are resisting action again.
Of course, referring to "paying more to people in unemployment than they got when working, thus encouraging people to stay unemployed etc." is just typical Republican trickle-down economics tripe that has no truth to it.
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(05-18-2020, 11:38 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: (05-18-2020, 06:15 AM)David Horn Wrote: The shelter-in-place policy was intended to slow the spread, not eliminate it. Places that moved fast, like South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, managed to use isolation to actually bring the virus as close to zero as possible, assuming no foreign traveler brings it back. In the US, the primary focus was our healthcare system that was being overrun by new cases -- just like Italy.
And let's admit it: living in NYC or any other highly dense city, makes addressing a pandemic that infects so readily a nearly impossible goal to achieve.
The whole world woke up and realized that the shit was hitting the fan at about the same time.
The reason why Australia and New Zealand were able to stop the virus so effectively is that when everyone figured out what was going on, they had very few cases. By this time, the U.S. already had far too many cases for containment to be possible. In addition, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control completely fucked up and sent out non-working coronavirus test kits all over the country. By the time everyone figured out they didn't work and sent them all back and managed to get new ones, the disease was already everywhere.
The U.S. didn't do anything wrong (other than the test kit screwup), it just has too many people and got hit too hard too fast.
Good luck convincing the "America Last" Blue Boomer crowd here of that. But yes otherwise more or less accurate.
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(05-19-2020, 09:14 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: (05-18-2020, 11:38 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: (05-18-2020, 06:15 AM)David Horn Wrote: The shelter-in-place policy was intended to slow the spread, not eliminate it. Places that moved fast, like South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, managed to use isolation to actually bring the virus as close to zero as possible, assuming no foreign traveler brings it back. In the US, the primary focus was our healthcare system that was being overrun by new cases -- just like Italy.
And let's admit it: living in NYC or any other highly dense city, makes addressing a pandemic that infects so readily a nearly impossible goal to achieve.
The whole world woke up and realized that the shit was hitting the fan at about the same time.
The reason why Australia and New Zealand were able to stop the virus so effectively is that when everyone figured out what was going on, they had very few cases. By this time, the U.S. already had far too many cases for containment to be possible. In addition, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control completely fucked up and sent out non-working coronavirus test kits all over the country. By the time everyone figured out they didn't work and sent them all back and managed to get new ones, the disease was already everywhere.
The U.S. didn't do anything wrong (other than the test kit screwup), it just has too many people and got hit too hard too fast.
Good luck convincing the "America Last" Blue Boomer crowd here of that. But yes otherwise more or less accurate.
Yah. We'll probably remember the PPE shortage, the inaction, the ventilator lack of response, the happy talk. You might get a little reaction if you pushed that.
At least we'll have something more recent and better documented than Nero supposedly fiddling as Rome burned.
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(05-19-2020, 09:57 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (05-19-2020, 09:14 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: (05-18-2020, 11:38 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: (05-18-2020, 06:15 AM)David Horn Wrote: The shelter-in-place policy was intended to slow the spread, not eliminate it. Places that moved fast, like South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, managed to use isolation to actually bring the virus as close to zero as possible, assuming no foreign traveler brings it back. In the US, the primary focus was our healthcare system that was being overrun by new cases -- just like Italy.
And let's admit it: living in NYC or any other highly dense city, makes addressing a pandemic that infects so readily a nearly impossible goal to achieve.
The whole world woke up and realized that the shit was hitting the fan at about the same time.
The reason why Australia and New Zealand were able to stop the virus so effectively is that when everyone figured out what was going on, they had very few cases. By this time, the U.S. already had far too many cases for containment to be possible. In addition, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control completely fucked up and sent out non-working coronavirus test kits all over the country. By the time everyone figured out they didn't work and sent them all back and managed to get new ones, the disease was already everywhere.
The U.S. didn't do anything wrong (other than the test kit screwup), it just has too many people and got hit too hard too fast.
Good luck convincing the "America Last" Blue Boomer crowd here of that. But yes otherwise more or less accurate.
Yah. We'll probably remember the PPE shortage, the inaction, the ventilator lack of response, the happy talk. You might get a little reaction if you pushed that.
At least we'll have something more recent and better documented than Nero supposedly fiddling as Rome burned.
And some people say that Trump IS in fact Nero.
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