The Coronavirus

[Eric the Green]

Most reported cases in US states July 28:

Texas 10,698
Florida 9230
California 7994
Georgia 4209
Tennessee 2555
Arizona 2107
North Carolina 1761
South Carolina 1692
Missouri 1676
Mississippi 1342
Ohio 1325
Alabama 1251
Pennsylvania 1134
Louisiana 1121
Nevada 1105
Oklahoma 1089
Illinois 1076

US total 64,729
new deaths July 28: 1245

[Bob Butler 54]

The AP notes that Misinformation on the virus is proving highly contagious.

The usual suspects of the conservative conspiracy theory fans and the Russian English language sites are spreading lies.

[Eric the Green]

(07-29-2020, 03:28 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The AP notes that Misinformation on the virus is proving highly contagious.

The usual suspects of the conservative conspiracy theory fans and the Russian English language sites are spreading lies.

Contagious indeed. How many people do we know personally who have caught it? I know some.

John Oliver speculates on how to deal with our friends so infected.

[pbrower2a]

COVID-19 just took the life of entrepreneur and political figure Herman Cain. Diagnosed on June 29, he died on July 20 of its complications.

Another of more than 150,000 people in America.

[Bob Butler 54]

CNN reports that Coronavirus slammed the US Northeast and then the South and West. Now it's the heartland's turn.

A pretty good review of how various regions are being hit at different times and intervals.

[Ragnarök_62]

(07-29-2020, 03:56 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-28-2020, 01:15 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(07-28-2020, 12:45 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Yup, we're a banana republic now.

Do we at least get cheap bananas?  

No, we have no bananas. We have no bananas today (store shut down)

Bummer, man.  No sugar either?  







Gotta stay calm, and smoke some mother nature.

[beechnut79]

(05-25-2020, 07:48 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(05-24-2020, 09:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-24-2020, 09:35 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(05-24-2020, 01:05 PM)sbarrera Wrote: Seems the lockdown measure are more neccessary in the hot zone, and should be continued.

I don't think it's obvious that the measures that are currently failing to control the number of cases in the "hot zone" are the ones that should be continued.

I live in an urban suburb of Boston, a hot area of a hot zone.  We had a fairly severe shutdown with people basically going to grocery and drug stores and nowhere else.  This reduced travel and should have reduced the viral reproduction rate R by a factor of 10, but the actual result of a new case reduction that's extremely gradual showed a reduction in R by a factor of 3 at most.  Something is going on beyond the shutdown.

Possibilities include a very high R on the subway system, which remained open, or transmission by some other vector, like food or something, or an external driver, like people travelling from New York.  We don't know what it was, but we need to find out, because we need for the interventions to become more effective, rather than just resorting to the ones that are most draconian but are of limited effectiveness.

I'm hoping masks will help, but masks will only address the same tranmission vectors that we thought we were already addressing.

I suspect a lot of it is individuals failing to take the precautions seriously enough.  Mothers holding sleepovers, or dropping kids off at shut down malls to socialize might be examples.  Too many people are stuck in the unraveling mindset, putting their own convenience ahead of the community's need.  Trump is keeping up his open up do not take this seriously narrative in opposition to the hot zone governors position.  As a result many are extending the lockdown and hitting themselves in the economy.

But the result is to bring us below an R0 of one.  We are not quite blowing the health care system away.

It's not the R0, its the R. R is the observed infection rate. R0 is the infection rate under natural conditions, typically at the beginning of an outbreak. That is, it is the base case, hence the subscript 0.

For Warren, R0 is a first order rate constant for infection kinetics.  R is the rate constant after you take into account various inhibitors like social distancing, mask-wearing and weather, plus mass-action effects like isolation & contact tracing or brute-force actions like shutdowns.

(07-30-2020, 01:21 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: COVID-19 just took the life of entrepreneur and political figure Herman Cain. Diagnosed on June 29, he died on July 20 of its complications.

Another of more than 150,000 people in America.

[Eric the Green]

(07-30-2020, 05:35 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(07-29-2020, 03:56 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-28-2020, 01:15 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(07-28-2020, 12:45 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Yup, we're a banana republic now.

Do we at least get cheap bananas?  

No, we have no bananas. We have no bananas today (store shut down)

Bummer, man.  No sugar either?  







Gotta stay calm, and smoke some mother nature.

Maybe not that either?

The guru says no.

[Ragnarök_62]

(07-30-2020, 06:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-30-2020, 05:35 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(07-29-2020, 03:56 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-28-2020, 01:15 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(07-28-2020, 12:45 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Yup, we're a banana republic now.

Do we at least get cheap bananas?  

No, we have no bananas. We have no bananas today (store shut down)

Bummer, man.  No sugar either?  







Gotta stay calm, and smoke some mother nature.

Maybe not that either?

The guru says no.

Oh, that's outdated man.  Ain't no busts in 2020.  I'm licensed and legal. Amnesia Haze in da bomb.

[Eric the Green]

(07-30-2020, 06:31 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(07-30-2020, 06:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-30-2020, 05:35 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(07-29-2020, 03:56 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-28-2020, 01:15 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Do we at least get cheap bananas?  

No, we have no bananas. We have no bananas today (store shut down)

Bummer, man.  No sugar either?  







Gotta stay calm, and smoke some mother nature.

Maybe not that either?

The guru says no.

Oh, that's outdated man.  Ain't no busts in 2020.  I'm licensed and legal. Amnesia Haze in da bomb.

That's true. Tommy's followers can light up in Oklahoma now. Amazing Haze!

But still not in Cuba in 2020! Not if you are in the Ball and Chain. Still waitin'......

[Bob Butler 54]

The AP has the Victoria section of Australia having a problem.  They are one of those islands which are generally ahead of things, but an uptick got out of control.

[pbrower2a]

[Bob Butler 54]

The AP has a report on the state of the virus in the US, with an emphasis on isolation fatigue.  Humans are supposedly social animals who want to get together.  With the mixed messaging coming from the Republicans there are too many spreading events which keep the infection rate high.

Not new.  We have known the problem for some time, why other countries have solved the problem but we haven't.  The difference is in the leadership.

[Bob Butler 54]

CNN reports that Los Angeles can cut water and power to houses that repeatedly host large parties during the pandemic.

This does seem to be an escalation to the punishment given to those who try to bypass isolation.  

Ohio Republican governor Mike DiWine has also tested positive for the virus, CNN reports.

[pbrower2a]

https://apnews.com/fa074079157ad9a3683445b291daaf39

Harleys everywhere, masks nowhere: Sturgis draws thousands
By STEPHEN GROVES


STURGIS, S.D. (AP) — Thousands of bikers poured into the small South Dakota city of Sturgis on Friday as the 80th Sturgis Motorcycle Rally rumbled to life despite fears it could lead to a massive coronavirus outbreak.

The rally could become one of the largest public gatherings since the pandemic began, with organizers expecting 250,000 people from all over the country to make their way through Sturgis during the 10-day event. That would be roughly half the number of previous years, but local residents — and a few bikers — worry that the crowds could create a “super-spreader” event.

Many who rode their bikes into Sturgis on Friday expressed defiance at the rules and restrictions that have marked life in many locales during the pandemic. People rode from across the country to a state that offered a reprieve from coronavirus restrictions, as South Dakota has no special limits on indoor crowds, no mask mandates and a governor who is eager to welcome visitors and the money they bring.

“Screw COVID,” read the design on one T-shirt being hawked. “I went to Sturgis.”

Bikers rumbled past hundreds of tents filled with motorcycle gear, T-shirts and food. Harley Davidson motorcycles were everywhere but masks were almost nowhere to be seen, with an Associated Press reporter counting fewer than 10 in a crowd of thousands over a period of several hours.

For Stephen Sample, who rode his Harley from Arizona, the event was a break from the routine of the last several months, when he’s been mostly homebound or wearing a mask when he went to work as a surveyor.

“I don’t want to die, but I don’t want to be cooped up all my life either,” he said.

Still, Sample, who is 66, feared what could happen if he caught COVID-19 at the rally. He said he was trying to avoid indoor bars and venues, where he felt the risk of infection was greater. But on the opening day of the rally, he said he ate breakfast at an indoor diner.

As Sample weighed the risks of navigating the crowds, the same thrill-seeking that attracted him to riding motorcycles seemed to win out.

“I think we’re all willing to take a chance,” he said.

Republican Gov. Kristi Noem has taken a largely hands-off approach to the pandemic, avoiding a mask mandate and preaching personal responsibility. She supported holding the Sturgis rally, pointing out that no virus outbreak was documented from the several thousand people who turned out to see President Donald Trump and fireworks at Mount Rushmore last month.


Daily virus cases have been trending upward in South Dakota, but the seven-day average is still only around 84, with fewer than two deaths per day.

The rally attracted crowds of retirees and people in age ranges considered to be at higher risk from the coronavirus. But for many who see the rally as an annual pilgrimage, the camaraderie and atmosphere couldn’t be missed.

“I fell in love with the rally. I love the sound of the bikes,” said Bill Sudkamp, who was making his 20th consecutive rally appearance.

He and his wife, who declined to give their ages but said they were at elevated risk for COVID-19, were among the handful of people seen wearing masks in downtown Sturgis, a community of about 7,000 that’s roughly 25 miles (40 kilometers) northwest of Rapid City. They were also planning to avoid bars. Sudkamp felt it was inevitable that infections would spread in the packed bars and concert venues.

“It looked like South Dakota was plateauing mostly,” Sudkamp said. “It will be interesting to see what it looks like in two weeks.”

Marsha Schmid, who owns the Side Hack Saloon in Sturgis, was trying to keep her bar and restaurant from becoming a virus hot spot by spacing out indoor tables and offering plenty of hand sanitizer. She also scaled back the number of bands hired for the rally, hoping the crowds would stay thin but still spend the cash that keeps her business viable for the rest of the year.

She pointed out that many of her employees depend on the rally and the tips they can make.

“You’ve got people coming from all over the world,” she said. “I just hope they are being responsible and if they don’t feel good, they stay away.”

Several locals said they would spend the rally hunkered down at home. Carol Fellner stocked up on groceries and planned to stay away from any gatherings. Her husband suffers from bouts of pneumonia and kidney problems, and COVID-19 would be a “death sentence” for him, she said.

Fellner felt that the risk of an outbreak would be felt long after the bikers leave. The city plans to mass test residents to try to detect and halt outbreaks, but the area’s largest hospital system is already burdened with the influx of tourists and bikers who inevitably need hospital care during this time.

Sample was aware his trip to the rally could end in the hospital, which seemed to weigh on him.

“This is a major experiment,” he said. “It could be a major mistake.”

[pbrower2a]

Motorcyclists: reckless and mobile. Perfect spreaders. They are actually a rather old group.

Does anyone want to bet that it will be possible to get a late-model motorcycle rather cheaply and in good condition in a few months?

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-07-2020, 10:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Motorcyclists: reckless and mobile. Perfect spreaders. They are actually a rather old group.

Does anyone want to bet that it will be possible to get a late-model motorcycle rather cheaply and in good condition in a few months?

I had a neighbor in Plymouth attend a Sturgis get together a few years back. He never returned alive. Not the safest of hobbies. I imagine COVUS would only make it worse.

[pbrower2a]

(08-08-2020, 02:24 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(08-07-2020, 10:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Motorcyclists: reckless and mobile. Perfect spreaders. They are actually a rather old group.

Does anyone want to bet that it will be possible to get a late-model motorcycle rather cheaply and in good condition in a few months?

I had a neighbor in Plymouth attend a Sturgis get together a few years back.  He never returned alive.  Not the safest of hobbies.  I imagine COVUS would only make it worse.

I understand that the medical profession, infamous for macabre humor, has a word to describe motorcyclists: 

DONORS.

Organs, that is. No, not the sorts of organs on which one plays a large number of Bach fugues.

[pbrower2a]

Brought over from another thread because it wandered into relevance to this thread. 1/6 of a million is 166,666 and two-thirds, and we likely reach that grim milestone soon.

(08-08-2020, 01:17 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: I'm OK with the Democrats shutting down cheap meat packing plants that mainly employ cheap immigrants (legal or illegal)  that provide cheap food for cheap people like you to eat. I think it would be a major mistake but whatever the Democrats seem know what's best for Democrats and you seem to be on board with the Democratic way of thinking. Well, have fun starving and dealing with hungry people as you're waiting for couple of disconnected  multi-millionaires/ aristocrats  named Nancy and Chuck to figure it out and maybe do something about it or possibly ignore it or whatever. Like I said, I'll go in with a Republican minded friend and buy a fucking cow to eat as your waiting for free food.

A Crisis Era compels people to do what they never planned to do. It puts an end to many bad habits that make life easy and inexpensive for some people -- at a great price to those whose misery is necessary for making abundance for others on the cheap. Remember: a 3T is a time of negligent, myopic hedonism that acts as if there is no future for which to account. People get away with bad behavior such as exploitation, under-saving, Ponzi schemes and speculative bubbles, celebrity circuses, quackery in academia, tax cuts for elites, and inadequate investment in the public sector. 

No era of the typical saeculum receives quicker and fuller repudiation than the degenerate 3T. It always gives people inadequate preparation for what follows. Trying to live as if 3T rules apply through a 4T is one way to ensure personal disaster if such is one's behavior as an atomized individual and large-scale disaster if one imposes it on a grand scale. 

People cannot live on their impulses in a 4T (really in any military unit). If we do not have a shooting war, then we at least have the deaths of a shooting war. We have lost nearly one sixth of a million people in roughly six months. I am not going to extrapolate, as straight-line projections are the least reliable of predictions. But let's put it this way: we are in between losing (in size) Jackson, Mississippi and Springfield, Missouri. So imagine that you are headed to some low-brow entertainment  in Branson, Missouri (yes, country music is generally considered low-brow in contrast to classical, jazz, folk, or perhaps rhythm-and-blues) as you head west on Interstate 44 from somewhere in the Great Lakes region. You expect to turn south on US 65. Interstate 44 in Missouri is one of the most scenic of all Interstates, so it is an attractive drive. Nut all of a sudden, where Springfield was is an empty hulk, wiped out in the explosion of a neutron bomb. Nobody is there anymore except people passing through. Maybe they expected to stop at a motel for the night. The motel is still there, but there is no front-desk clerk. Stopping at one of the national chain restaurants? The restaurant is still there, but there is no staff... and there are no local customers. Not-so-local customers tell you that the food is already Do you rotting, so don't trust it even if it is "free". 

Do you think that you might get yourself some free gasoline because nobody has thought to shut off the pumps? If you do manage to stop at a gas station that uses the image of a tiger (as in the old ad campaign "Put a Tiger in your tank")... radioactive gasoline could put something even more dangerous than a tiger in your passenger compartment.  Make a wrong turn and pass a schoolyard or a park? There won't be any children playing. 

We are accustomed to assuming that in the First World or among advantaged people in other parts of the world, people do not die of respiratory infections unless they have pre-existing conditions (such as emphysema) or have messed up badly in life, as in getting hooked on street drugs. 

But you are lucky. You aren't going to stay in what used to be Springfield, Missouri very long. You can't. There's nothing there anymore. You got there after the neutron bomb exploded. If you think me over-dramatic: someone that Classic X'er and I agree is one of the greatest monsters in human form, Josef Stalin, said 

"One death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic".

...If you wonder why I don't mention Jackson, Mississippi -- I have never been there. If you wonder why I take so many swipes at Mississippi for its past, then it ain't for William Faulkner or Eudora Welty or the great number of Blues musicians who turned their pain from being black and poor (usually a redundancy) in Mississippi into a profound expression of humanity.  I've never been in Mississippi and probably never will be -- or probably will never even go through it. So I can't say much about it. I have been past or through Springfield, Missouri a few times.   

We have experienced a few characteristics of a 4T -- shortages of things that used to have reliable supply, exhortations to not make unnecessary trips, reduction in consumer choice, bare shelves, and attempts at personal and economic regimentation. We may not be closer to the end of the Crisis Era than to its start, but the latter years of a Crisis Era are often the harshest. 

...Maybe in the 1T we will not be doing things so much on the cheap as we used to.

[pbrower2a]

2020 college football? Not happening.

Obviously, a sixth of a million deaths from the Trump Plague is infinitely worse.

Saturday afternoons will be great for getting out the vote this year, won't they now that NCAA football isn't a distraction.