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COVID-19 is the climax to this 4T
#21
I would say that the Great Depression and World War II was undeniably a Crisis Era for Britain. Like other countries in Europe aside from the Soviet Union, Britain had its own problems with domestic fascists, and unlike many other European countries. democracy prevailed. Also there was the nasty death struggle with the Third Reich, which is about as much a Crisis as there could be.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#22
The duration between the financial crisis of 08’ and COVID19 is roughly equivalent to that of the stock market crash of 29’ and US entry into WWII.

I suspect that this is the climax. We can have a polarized figure ending the 4T along with a polarized electorate for a 1T. There’s already precedent here with Lincoln and the gilded age.
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#23
(03-26-2020, 05:50 AM)Snowflake1996 Wrote: The duration between the financial crisis of 08’ and COVID19 is roughly equivalent to that of the stock market crash of 29’ and US entry into WWII.

I suspect that this is the climax. We can have a polarized figure ending the 4T along with a polarized electorate for a 1T. There’s already precedent here with Lincoln and the gilded age.

FDR was also a very polarizing figure.  Republicans hated him.  His New Deal policies weren't exactly ushered in with unanimous consent. Even his Vice President opposed them.  And his third and fourth term campaigns for president was so controversial he had to pick a new Vice President each time. Plus, like Wilson, he ran on a "stay out of the war" platform in 1940 but got us into the war anyway. There are conspiracy theories, even to this day, that he knew about Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor before it happened but let it happen so that he could get more support for the war.
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#24
(03-26-2020, 05:50 AM)Snowflake1996 Wrote: The duration between the financial crisis of 08’ and COVID19 is roughly equivalent to that of the stock market crash of 29’ and US entry into WWII.

I suspect that this is the climax. We can have a polarized figure ending the 4T along with a polarized electorate for a 1T. There’s already precedent here with Lincoln and the gilded age.

Difference is that, at least so far, we aren’t having to deal with military warfare but germ warfare, which appears to be able to do just as much harm in its own way.
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#25
COVID-19 forces Americans to decide between the neoliberal prescription for the "free market" (in the sense that the Market is free to do dreadful things to people on behalf of shareholders and executives) and the value of human life. Such is a stark choice. We are obliged for at least a month to collectively repudiate an economic dogma that has prevailed over forty years so that people who might otherwise die get to live. It will reshape economic priorities much as a war does, except that in this war instead of literal soldiers in a combat army we have an army of the unemployed.

One month and a half is time enough for people to break some customs and habits and decide that such customs and habits are no longer relevant. Oh -- I don't have to be waited on in a restaurant? Maybe some casual-dining places will have to be reshaped into the fast-food model. (I think of Kohl's and Best Buy having grocery-style checkouts different from the pattern of the old-fashioned department stores as an analogue). A month or two without conspicuous consumption might show how empty such is.

We will also recognize what we miss.

This autumn we may even have a long-awaited, decisive shift in our political order. The sixth political party system may face a rapid transition to the seventh political party system, one perhaps initiating a social-market system.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#26
(03-26-2020, 12:12 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: This autumn we may even have a long-awaited, decisive shift in our political order. The sixth political party system may face a rapid transition to the seventh political party system, one perhaps initiating a social-market system.

May that be so!  It's well beyond time.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#27
(03-27-2020, 08:52 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(03-26-2020, 12:12 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: This autumn we may even have a long-awaited, decisive shift in our political order. The sixth political party system may face a rapid transition to the seventh political party system, one perhaps initiating a social-market system.

May that be so!  It's well beyond time.

Might we be able to give Reaganomics and associated philosophies a good funeral?
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#28
(03-25-2020, 04:14 PM)Drakus79 Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:42 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 09:27 AM)Drakus79 Wrote:
(03-23-2020, 06:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(03-22-2020, 05:01 PM)Drakus79 Wrote: I think we're way past the point of it being the catalyst of this 4T.  That's like saying the attack on pearl harbor in 1941 was the catalyst for the last 4T.  We've been in this 4T since at least 2008 (maybe even as early as 9/11/2001).

I do agree that we have to be careful not to go too far with our reaction.  A collapsed economy can cause way more deaths and hardships than this virus.  We also have to be careful not to make too many of these changes permanent.  There are many politicians who are eager to use this crisis to push forward their authoritarian agendas.  That's the downside of too much solidarity.

The reverse may be what's needed, to some extent. The reaction by the financial markets is what is not necessary. The government has not yet responded to the crisis in a competent way. Republicans are blocking the solutions. But the remedies being proposed by Democrats show that a more collectivist approach is needed, and if we make this a more permanent part of our government policy, as it was before Reaganomics, that will be a great blessing, and a fulfillment of the 4T. On the other hand, apparently some authorities like William Barr are pushing for another kind of Patriot Act curtailing civil liberties. That kind of authoritarian agenda is not at all needed, and is an abuse of the crisis. It's what we might expect from the Trump administration. So is the Republican bailout of the rich, which McConnell is proposing and which delays the response that we need.

The relief bill was blocked by Democrats.  They voted against it because they want to pass a 1400 page bill instead full of permanent socialist policies they've been trying to push through for years now.  The Republican bill is much simpler and just a temporary relief package.  IMO, they should have just passed the simpler short term Republican bill quickly so that people can get some sort of relief and then discussed a larger, more permanent bill later.  Now's not the time to be wasting time arguing details.
Just cut out the pork that's holding this up and pass the damn bill so that more people don't lose their jobs and can pay their rent.

The Republicans proposed to give huge breaks to big business and it would not have reached the people and trump too much authority. I hope a better bill is on the 5 yard line as McConnell says.

Businesses need relief too so that their are still jobs to go back to when this is over.  Most people aren't entrepreneurs. You can't fund any of your green new deal policies if there's no income to tax.

Probably big corporations should have just been banned from firing any employees and be required to continue paying them all. They can afford it. But the revised bill that has passed the senate 96-0 at least sets up some kind of oversight over the $500 billion given to these big economic dinosaurs. I believe it has passed the House today. It is a much better bill. Sanders and other Democrats made sure there is generous unemployment benefits and loans to small business that can be forgiven if they continue to pay their employees. States and hospitals should be getting more help.

The president has not used the Defense Authorization Act to require companies to make and distribute the health and testing supplies we need. Everyone should have access to tests and masks and should be tested. Trump and the Republican trickle-down theories are forcing the states and cities to do too much, but they don't have unlimited budgets of MMT. Republicans and McConnell are also blocking a national vote by mail bill which will allow Americans to vote in the crisis continues until the November election. Republicans don't want people to vote; that destroys their unfair rulership.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#29
(03-27-2020, 11:48 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(03-27-2020, 08:52 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(03-26-2020, 12:12 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: This autumn we may even have a long-awaited, decisive shift in our political order. The sixth political party system may face a rapid transition to the seventh political party system, one perhaps initiating a social-market system.

May that be so!  It's well beyond time.

Might we be able to give Reaganomics and associated philosophies a good funeral?

That would be cause for a big celebration! If the orders against big gatherings have been lifted by then!
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#30
(03-26-2020, 05:50 AM)Snowflake1996 Wrote: The duration between the financial crisis of 08’ and COVID19 is roughly equivalent to that of the stock market crash of 29’ and US entry into WWII.

I suspect that this is the climax. We can have a polarized figure ending the 4T along with a polarized electorate for a 1T. There’s already precedent here with Lincoln and the gilded age.

The Uranus Return and its timing of the normal length of a human life as 84 years will be the final indicator of the timing of the saeculum. The previous 4T was too short in duration, cut off by Hitler's failed invasion in the Battle of the Bulge, while earlier turnings in that saeculum were longer. In this saeculum, following on at the same speed of that last 4T, the 1T was also too short, being cut off by the JFK assassination and by the sixties movements that ramped up in the following years starting in 1964. So this time, the 3T was extended, and the 4T will be of normal length.

So it will be better to count backwards from the expected end date of the 4T which Mr. Howe has confirmed: 2029. It may be 2028, but one or the other. That means we are at about 1936, not 1941. 9 years away from the end.

Trump bears not the slightest resemblance or parallel to Lincoln. He is more like Pierce or Buchanan: total incompetence and favoring the side of slavery thus ramping up the crisis. We may not get a Lincoln until 2024, and probably not even then unless Mitch Landrieu runs for president then.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#31
(03-26-2020, 09:03 AM)Drakus79 Wrote:
(03-26-2020, 05:50 AM)Snowflake1996 Wrote: The duration between the financial crisis of 08’ and COVID19 is roughly equivalent to that of the stock market crash of 29’ and US entry into WWII.

I suspect that this is the climax. We can have a polarized figure ending the 4T along with a polarized electorate for a 1T. There’s already precedent here with Lincoln and the gilded age.

FDR was also a very polarizing figure.  Republicans hated him.  His New Deal policies weren't exactly ushered in with unanimous consent. Even his Vice President opposed them.  And his third and fourth term campaigns for president was so controversial he had to pick a new Vice President each time.  Plus, like Wilson, he ran on a "stay out of the war" platform in 1940 but got us into the war anyway. There are conspiracy theories, even to this day, that he knew about Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor before it happened but let it happen so that he could get more support for the war.

You have it much closer to the truth on this post, in my opinion Smile
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#32
The discussion on this post reveals how one important aspect of the Culture War remains unresolved - the proper relationship between government and the economy. The COVID-19 pandemic is obviously a major stress for the system as it is now, but with the partisan divide as wide as ever and there still being a red state/Trump bubble where a significant percentage of the U.S. population believes the Trumpian "everything will be back to normal by Easter" narrative, it remains to be seen if we can really retool our economy to deal with this emergency. It's too bad Sanders washed out of the primaries already, because his perspective would be helpful here. I suppose we might just collapse first, then retool after we count the dead.
Steve Barrera

[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure

Saecular Pages
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#33
The rest of the Culture War, including many of the reasons Trump is hated, seems to be fading into insignificance now. Heck, watch a primary debate from 4-8 weeks ago and see how much of it seems relevant.
Steve Barrera

[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure

Saecular Pages
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#34
(03-27-2020, 03:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(03-26-2020, 05:50 AM)Snowflake1996 Wrote: The duration between the financial crisis of 08’ and COVID19 is roughly equivalent to that of the stock market crash of 29’ and US entry into WWII.

I suspect that this is the climax. We can have a polarized figure ending the 4T along with a polarized electorate for a 1T. There’s already precedent here with Lincoln and the gilded age.

The Uranus Return and its timing of the normal length of a human life as 84 years will be the final indicator of the timing of the saeculum. The previous 4T was too short in duration, cut off by Hitler's failed invasion in the Battle of the Bulge, while earlier turnings in that saeculum were longer. In this saeculum, following on at the same speed of that last 4T, the 1T was also too short, being cut off by the JFK assassination and by the sixties movements that ramped up in the following years starting in 1964. So this time, the 3T was extended, and the 4T will be of normal length.

So it will be better to count backwards from the expected end date of the 4T which Mr. Howe has confirmed: 2029. It may be 2028, but one or the other. That means we are at about 1936, not 1941. 9 years away from the end.

Trump bears not the slightest resemblance or parallel to Lincoln. He is more like Pierce or Buchanan: total incompetence and favoring the side of slavery thus ramping up the crisis. We may not get a Lincoln until 2024, and probably not even then unless Mitch Landrieu runs for president then.


Increasingly I’m starting to think the crisis started in 2001 and not 2008. This would explain why those born in the mid 90’s and later identify overwhelmingly as a separate generation from millennials (Strauss and Howe said they let generations define themselves and not the other way around which is how they pinned boomers as being born 1943-1960 and not as being 1946-1964) and would also neatly fit Obama’s administration as the regeneracy with Trump/Covid19 being the final crisis we have to overcome. 

The Iraq war being fought primarily by a nomad generation also fits with the civil war gilded generation. This could explain why Xers are voting at higher rates than millennials despite the conventional predictions that millennials would become a voting powerhouse.
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#35
(03-27-2020, 10:15 PM)sbarrera Wrote: The rest of the Culture War, including many of the reasons Trump is hated, seems to be fading into insignificance now. Heck, watch a primary debate from 4-8 weeks ago and see how much of it seems relevant.

Not to say that there aren't some rogues on the Left...

Donald Trump is a consequence of cultural wars in which identity matters more than do competence and service, in which much of what passes as morality for one side is a semi-feudal attitude that 95% of the people exist solely to make people already filthy-rich even more filthy-rich, in which faith in the absurd is a test of moral propriety, and in which the most amoral right-wing authoritarian types moralize loudest.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#36
(03-28-2020, 09:50 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(03-27-2020, 10:15 PM)sbarrera Wrote: The rest of the Culture War, including many of the reasons Trump is hated, seems to be fading into insignificance now. Heck, watch a primary debate from 4-8 weeks ago and see how much of it seems relevant.

Not to say that there aren't some rogues on the Left...

Donald Trump is a consequence of cultural wars in which identity matters more than do competence and service, in which much of what passes as morality for one side is a semi-feudal attitude that 95% of the people exist solely to make people already filthy-rich even more filthy-rich, in which faith in the absurd is a test of moral propriety, and in which the most amoral right-wing authoritarian types moralize loudest.

On the Right, too...

I have seen some headlines about state legislatures sneaking Culture Wars laws into coronavirus relief bills. That would make an interesting new thread.
Steve Barrera

[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure

Saecular Pages
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#37
America is in a very different mood from that of 2001. The 9/11 attack was disgusting in the extreme, but America went back to the ways before 9/11, perhaps making incremental changes to security practices, but otherwise -- it was back to speculation and shopping.

Death totals in the USA alone are already approaching those of 9/11... the travel restrictions don't exist, but if hopping on board a jetliner was scary in late 2001, it could be even more dangerous now. Sure, one can travel, but there are few places to go. Scenic sites on a Sunday drive, maybe, but I am too far from the Great Lakes shoreline.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#38
I would argue and say that this is not a climax but more the beginning of the of the end of the 4T. If I was to describe it, this is more of a Franz Ferdinand moment. The crisis that will ultimately reshape the world. My own thoughts though is that this is the event that will most likely cause an economic depression in western countries and the collapse of neo-liberalism.

I have noticed that Russia isn't struggling with it compared to the West and China can get itself out of the quagmire pretty quickly. So I doubt this will lead to any 4T inspired events in these countries.

To be honest, I am beginning to debate if 2008 and Trump/Brexit were mere 3T events and this is the start of the 4T...it sure feels that way. But I digress.

Either way my predictions are a meltdown in the West followed by an economic revival based on a new green economy that can provide jobs. This ok turn will also fix the West's declining birth rates due to the nature of work and the easier cost of having children. So in the long run it will be beneficial.

But it's getting there that is going to be the problem.
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#39
(04-05-2020, 01:16 PM)Isoko Wrote: I would argue and say that this is not a climax but more the beginning of the of the end of the 4T. If I was to describe it, this is more of a Franz Ferdinand moment. The crisis that will ultimately reshape the world.

What's the equivalent of the World War, though?  Once the pandemic is over, it seems to me things return to where they were just before the pandemic, rather than changing.
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#40
(04-05-2020, 01:24 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-05-2020, 01:16 PM)Isoko Wrote: I would argue and say that this is not a climax but more the beginning of the of the end of the 4T. If I was to describe it, this is more of a Franz Ferdinand moment. The crisis that will ultimately reshape the world.

What's the equivalent of the World War, though?  Once the pandemic is over, it seems to me things return to where they were just before the pandemic, rather than changing.

People are going to find that much that they did that they quit doing that they used to do with little thought will be unnecessary. People will often take the scary Voyage to the Interior and find something delightful or ominous. People may discover new talents that they can use to enrich their lives, if not find new ways of making a living. 

Much that was substandard will become irrelevant and lose its economic basis. People can do little impulse shopping, and impulse shopping makes much retailing possible. 

Mobility is much a part of American life except in perhaps the most self-contained community in America (I am guessing New York City, which I know from media portrayals and not from having ever been there). We are still social creatures, and this plague disrupts such activities as courtship.  We will want to go back to the bars and clubs. Nature will be just as beautiful as ever. 

If you wonder about reading -- it is enjoyable only if one gets to share an experience of reading. 

Many of us will be obliged to confront our own demons, our inadequacies, and our worst impulses. We will be better off if we can deal with those and come out better for it.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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