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COVID-19 is the climax to this 4T
#1
I decided to check back here, since it seems pretty obvious that this pandemic crisis is the climax of this 4T and I'm surprised there hasn't been a thread on this already (although I may have missed it).  Nevertheless, here are my thoughts.


Trump is, whether you like it or not, the Gray (orange) Champion of this cycle.  Unless he screws up royally, I don't see him losing to Biden in the election.  Biden's choice of VP is very important as whoever he picks is likely going to be the real president.  I'm guessing he's going to pick Kamala Harris, but I could be wrong.  It's interesting to note that a presidential nominee has never died before the election, but that actually may happen this time considering the ages of the candidates and COVID19.  And even if Biden does manage to survive to the election, he's already in his late 70s so he may not last two terms.

But it's interesting how unimportant these politics seem at this time.  Issues that were huge only a month ago (impeachment, FISA abuses, even climate change) just seem trivial by comparison.  This pandemic is a real crisis unlike anything we've been through.  You would have to go all the way back to WWII to find a crisis that required such a level of sacrifice by the whole population and put us against so common an enemy.  That being said, the hardships they went through is nowhere's near the same as what we're going through.  Our lives have become undeniably a lot easier since then.  But because we've become so accustomed to an easy life, even a mild crisis, like this, seems difficult.  So compared to what we've become accustomed to, this is our version of the WWII climax of the last 4T.

And like the great depression and WWII changed the world permanently, so will this crisis.  The last 4T saw the permanent addition of social safety nets, ie Social Security, unemployment insurance and Medicare.  As a result of this pandemic, we will very likely see the introduction of UBI due to the massive damage this crisis has done to an economy that was booming just a month ago.  Even Republicans are supporting UBI now, and it may replace Social Security and unemployment insurance entirely.  And I don't see us putting the UBI genie back in the bottle once this crisis ends either. Politicians that run on a platform to end UBI will very quickly lose support.  UBI will become the new "third rail" in politics like Social Security has been for so long.

But UBI, by itself, will not be sustainable. For those of you who are familiar with my posts, you'll know that I was always in favor of UBI, but preferred the Gary Johnson model over the Andrew Yang model.  The Gary Johnson "fairtax" model involved switching away from a federal income tax system to a consumption tax system, and using a percentage of the consumption tax to fund a monthly UBI prebate or "tax refund".  The reason being that if UBI was funded by income tax, the incentive to work will collapse.  If the checks were big enough, most people would prefer to collect free government money rather than work, and there wouldn't be enough income tax revenue to fund UBI.  Plus the resentment between the workers funding UBI, and the non-workers collecting UBI will become unsustainable after a point.  At least, if it were funded by a consumption tax, everyone would be paying into it, not just the people with jobs.  Gary Johnson's UBI model could stand the test of time.  Andrew Yangs could not.  So it's likely that we will see something like the fairtax being instituted to keep UBI sustainable.


As more and more schools and companies adopt a work from home model, I have a feeling this is another genie that we will not be able to put back in the bottle.  Work from home will become the norm, except for jobs that can't physically support a remote work option.  School will also adopt more of a remote desktop model, and I see homeschooling becoming way more prevalent after this.

Looking at the big picture, I see this crisis as the death knell for globalization.  The trend towards globalization had already been losing ground with Brexit and Trump's election, but this just killed it.  Borders are more secure than ever, and although it will ease up a bit, I don't see the "open borders" argument regaining any ground any time soon. Yet, despite how socially isolated we've become, we're becoming more connected than ever online.  But I see us ultimately becoming more domestically focused. Economically we're already seeing a major push to rely less on other countries (especially China) for manufactured goods.  This trend is likely to continue as we'd want to be more prepared for another crisis like this.  It's interesting to note that WWII ultimately resulted in increasing globalization.  This crisis is resulting in the opposite.
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#2
The coronavirus is a massive catalyst. It will increase stress levels in a similar manner as the Great Depression, but much deeper into the cycle.

I could be that there seems to be some unity, but unless China or some entity can be targeted as the enemy by both the right and the left, the US will be in deep, deep trouble once the economic impacts really take hold of the society. I'm trying to find something optimistic about the whole situation, but the only one is that solidarity would somehow win over this current situation. It could be, and I certainly hope that this would happen, but time will tell.

Stress increases certain kinds of behaviors, and prolonged stress makes things even more tense. There seems to be little hope that this pandemic wouldn't increase stress levels very high.
Generational hormone theory: https://jannemiettinen.fi/FourthTurning/
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#3
I think we're way past the point of it being the catalyst of this 4T. That's like saying the attack on pearl harbor in 1941 was the catalyst for the last 4T. We've been in this 4T since at least 2008 (maybe even as early as 9/11/2001).

I do agree that we have to be careful not to go too far with our reaction. A collapsed economy can cause way more deaths and hardships than this virus. We also have to be careful not to make too many of these changes permanent. There are many politicians who are eager to use this crisis to push forward their authoritarian agendas. That's the downside of too much solidarity.
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#4
Senator Rand Paul (Reactionary, Kentucky) has been diagnosed with CORVID-19.

This infectious disease can theoretically disrupt our legislative process.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#5
(03-22-2020, 06:56 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Senator Rand Paul (Reactionary, Kentucky) has been diagnosed with CORVID-19.

This infectious disease can theoretically disrupt our legislative process.

Let's look at the personal behavior of Senator Libertarian.  In his non-governmental life, he's a medical doctor, yet, having tested positive for the virus, he decided to go out to dinner in a group and exercise in the Senate gym, right next to others who didn't have a clue.  What a dick!
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#6
Trump is not a champion of anything but his own ego. He IS the crisis, not the solution.

Is this the crisis climax? No, that won't happen until the end in 2025-27. But it is part of the new normal. Vaccines are being developed and people do recover. There may be further such virus crises as long as we continue to encroach on animal territory and kill them to sell. That may be a long while, so this pandemic does seem like it could indicate part of the new normal caused by our environmental crisis: overpopulation and abuse of the land and the resources and climate change, etc.

UBI is not the only remedy for our oligarchic crisis. The full cure is to ditch libertarian economics completely and restart the 40-year pause in progress toward a truly mixed and green economy with the Green New Deal. Obviously Gary Johnson is not on the right track in this regard. Libertarian needs to go, to quarantine itself along with Rand Paul. A consumption tax would obviously hurt consumption which drives the economy and hurts the people who can't afford to pay it, while a progressive income tax helps to reduce the inequality and the power of wealth that has come back because taxes have been reduced and wages held flat.

Globalism is suffering a reversal, no doubt. It survives in the willingness to recognize this is just another global problem for which world cooperation will be needed. In the long run further globalization is inevitable, but there is always a need for protection and restrictions on occasion to regulate the flow of goods, and bads. The global society will be a federation, not a uniform power from above.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#7
(03-22-2020, 05:01 PM)Drakus79 Wrote: I think we're way past the point of it being the catalyst of this 4T.  That's like saying the attack on pearl harbor in 1941 was the catalyst for the last 4T.  We've been in this 4T since at least 2008 (maybe even as early as 9/11/2001).

I do agree that we have to be careful not to go too far with our reaction.  A collapsed economy can cause way more deaths and hardships than this virus.  We also have to be careful not to make too many of these changes permanent.  There are many politicians who are eager to use this crisis to push forward their authoritarian agendas.  That's the downside of too much solidarity.

The reverse may be what's needed, to some extent. The reaction by the financial markets is what is not necessary. The government has not yet responded to the crisis in a competent way. Republicans are blocking the solutions. But the remedies being proposed by Democrats show that a more collectivist approach is needed, and if we make this a more permanent part of our government policy, as it was before Reaganomics, that will be a great blessing, and a fulfillment of the 4T. On the other hand, apparently some authorities like William Barr are pushing for another kind of Patriot Act curtailing civil liberties. That kind of authoritarian agenda is not at all needed, and is an abuse of the crisis. It's what we might expect from the Trump administration. So is the Republican bailout of the rich, which McConnell is proposing and which delays the response that we need.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#8
Definitely agree that UBI will be hard to get rid of, if it is actually instituted. New "third rail" is a great way to put it.

I wonder, though, if globalization will end, or if it won't rebound after this. The 1T will bring the next, ratcheted up level of globalization, where the societies which participate the most will be the ones whose economies best survive the pandemic.
Steve Barrera

[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure

Saecular Pages
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#9
The stock market crash (which now looks like the worst since 1929), impeachment of the President,and CORVID-19 seem to portend an election that will shake America.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#10
COVID-19 portends that there won't be an election.
Steve Barrera

[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure

Saecular Pages
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#11
(03-23-2020, 11:29 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(03-22-2020, 06:56 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Senator Rand Paul (Reactionary, Kentucky) has been diagnosed with CORVID-19.

This infectious disease can theoretically disrupt our legislative process.

Let's look at the personal behavior of Senator Libertarian.  In his non-governmental life, he's a medical doctor, yet, having tested positive for the virus, he decided to go out to dinner in a group and exercise in the Senate gym, right next to others who didn't have a clue.  What a dick!

Not true, but I'm seeing this story repeated a lot.  He didn't know he was positive until after he went to the gym.  He made the announcement as soon as he got the results and immediately went home. Give the guy a break, he just contracted a serious illness.
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#12
(03-23-2020, 06:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(03-22-2020, 05:01 PM)Drakus79 Wrote: I think we're way past the point of it being the catalyst of this 4T.  That's like saying the attack on pearl harbor in 1941 was the catalyst for the last 4T.  We've been in this 4T since at least 2008 (maybe even as early as 9/11/2001).

I do agree that we have to be careful not to go too far with our reaction.  A collapsed economy can cause way more deaths and hardships than this virus.  We also have to be careful not to make too many of these changes permanent.  There are many politicians who are eager to use this crisis to push forward their authoritarian agendas.  That's the downside of too much solidarity.

The reverse may be what's needed, to some extent. The reaction by the financial markets is what is not necessary. The government has not yet responded to the crisis in a competent way. Republicans are blocking the solutions. But the remedies being proposed by Democrats show that a more collectivist approach is needed, and if we make this a more permanent part of our government policy, as it was before Reaganomics, that will be a great blessing, and a fulfillment of the 4T. On the other hand, apparently some authorities like William Barr are pushing for another kind of Patriot Act curtailing civil liberties. That kind of authoritarian agenda is not at all needed, and is an abuse of the crisis. It's what we might expect from the Trump administration. So is the Republican bailout of the rich, which McConnell is proposing and which delays the response that we need.

The relief bill was blocked by Democrats. They voted against it because they want to pass a 1400 page bill instead full of permanent socialist policies they've been trying to push through for years now. The Republican bill is much simpler and just a temporary relief package. IMO, they should have just passed the simpler short term Republican bill quickly so that people can get some sort of relief and then discussed a larger, more permanent bill later. Now's not the time to be wasting time arguing details.
Just cut out the pork that's holding this up and pass the damn bill so that more people don't lose their jobs and can pay their rent.
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#13
(03-24-2020, 09:24 AM)Drakus79 Wrote:
(03-23-2020, 11:29 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(03-22-2020, 06:56 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Senator Rand Paul (Reactionary, Kentucky) has been diagnosed with CORVID-19.

This infectious disease can theoretically disrupt our legislative process.

Let's look at the personal behavior of Senator Libertarian.  In his non-governmental life, he's a medical doctor, yet, having tested positive for the virus, he decided to go out to dinner in a group and exercise in the Senate gym, right next to others who didn't have a clue.  What a dick!

Not true, but I'm seeing this story repeated a lot.  He didn't know he was positive until after he went to the gym.  He made the announcement as soon as he got the results and immediately went home.  Give the guy a break, he just contracted a serious illness.

Even had he not known the results, he knew he'd been tested … and he's a medical professional!  His behavior was unacceptable -- full stop!
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#14
(03-24-2020, 09:27 AM)Drakus79 Wrote: The relief bill was blocked by Democrats.  They voted against it because they want to pass a 1400 page bill instead full of permanent socialist policies they've been trying to push through for years now.  The Republican bill is much simpler and just a temporary relief package.  IMO, they should have just passed the simpler short term Republican bill quickly so that people can get some sort of relief and then discussed a larger, more permanent bill later.  Now's not the time to be wasting time arguing details.

Just cut out the pork that's holding this up and pass the damn bill so that more people don't lose their jobs and can pay their rent.

Ignoring your commentary about intent, which is unlikely, let's just go with your suggestion and kill the corporate slush fund and business handouts. Checks for everyone! Simple. It can be a one page bill.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#15
(03-22-2020, 05:01 PM)Drakus79 Wrote: I think we're way past the point of it being the catalyst of this 4T.  That's like saying the attack on pearl harbor in 1941 was the catalyst for the last 4T.  We've been in this 4T since at least 2008 (maybe even as early as 9/11/2001).

Yes, the coronavirus is a massive catalyst in the 4T. Although the 4T begun around 2008, this is a massive catalyst situation where stress levels increase, and everyone notices the social mood changing. A 4T would come about and also get more intense without ANY catalysts, but catalysts are moments which any fool can notice.

As an analogy, the generational cycle is like a tree growing. You can't notice the changes when everything is changing at a normal pace, but it's still growing. A catalyst is like seeing a tree have a sudden growth spurt, and this way the tree will also get taller before the end of the 4T, thus the changes during that 4T will be more significant.

The US has two groups. This pandemic is only going to make things worse regarding the divide, since stress hormones are high, and this only increases the divide, since stress makes you defend you ground even more fiercely. During 9/11 the threat came from outside, so there was a moment of unification. This time the parties won't come together, since the threat is not something you can rally the entire nation against now that the ideological divides are so strong. (Trump kinda tried that with calling the coronavirus a "chinese virus", trying to get everyone behind him against China, but that certainly didn't work out too well, so he abandoned the idea.)
Generational hormone theory: https://jannemiettinen.fi/FourthTurning/
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#16
Everyone knows what my contention has been all along - namely, that we have been in a "3 1/2T" since 9/11 (because the Culture Wars not only didn't end, but outrightly intensified - see Lawrence v. Texas and then Obergefell v. Hodges followed by Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights) - and with the coronavirus, we have now toppled into a full-blown 4T.

Arguably, it can be claimed that we have seen this movie before - from 1857 (the year Generations cites as the start of the Civil War Crisis) to 1860 (the year The Fourth Turning uses).
"It was better with them that were slain by the sword, than with them that died with hunger, for these pined away being consumed for want of the fruits of the earth" - Lamentations 4:9
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#17
It's easy to see from the stat below that in the US the divide begun around 2008, not after 9/11, since the ideological divide was still tolerable in 2004.

[Image: partisan-gap-us.png]

In the UK, where they are experiencing their first real 4T in almost 500 years (because they ruled over colonies, basically lifting all citizens above the colonists), the 4T begun around 2012.

[Image: uk-ideological-gap.png]

Just check out my generational hormone theory where I've explained how this is due to increasing hormone levels of dopamine (increasing in-group coherence) and vasopressin (increased territoriality and aggression). It's the increasing dopamine levels at the beginning of a 4th turning either unify or divide a nation. This time around the ideological polarizations were pretty high around 2008, thus two separate in-groups are diverging further from each other every year. This is the very same situation that happened before the US Civil War. And in 1930 the political polarizations were low, so the increasing dopamine levels unified the nation pretty well, and the threat of Nazi Germany further galvanized the US under a common threat.

This same increase in group coherence and territoriality can be observed in animal population cycles during the last quarter/turning. And once their first quarter comes to an end, the group coherence and territoriality loosen, and this is basically the 1970s, lemming style.
Generational hormone theory: https://jannemiettinen.fi/FourthTurning/
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#18
(03-22-2020, 05:01 PM)Drakus79 Wrote: I think we're way past the point of it being the catalyst of this 4T.  That's like saying the attack on pearl harbor in 1941 was the catalyst for the last 4T.  We've been in this 4T since at least 2008 (maybe even as early as 9/11/2001).

I do agree that we have to be careful not to go too far with our reaction.  A collapsed economy can cause way more deaths and hardships than this virus.  We also have to be careful not to make too many of these changes permanent.  There are many politicians who are eager to use this crisis to push forward their authoritarian agendas.  That's the downside of too much solidarity.

We did have precursors of the 4T, like the Oklahoma City bombing (1995) and the Columbine shooting (1999).
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#19
(03-24-2020, 09:27 AM)Drakus79 Wrote:
(03-23-2020, 06:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(03-22-2020, 05:01 PM)Drakus79 Wrote: I think we're way past the point of it being the catalyst of this 4T.  That's like saying the attack on pearl harbor in 1941 was the catalyst for the last 4T.  We've been in this 4T since at least 2008 (maybe even as early as 9/11/2001).

I do agree that we have to be careful not to go too far with our reaction.  A collapsed economy can cause way more deaths and hardships than this virus.  We also have to be careful not to make too many of these changes permanent.  There are many politicians who are eager to use this crisis to push forward their authoritarian agendas.  That's the downside of too much solidarity.

The reverse may be what's needed, to some extent. The reaction by the financial markets is what is not necessary. The government has not yet responded to the crisis in a competent way. Republicans are blocking the solutions. But the remedies being proposed by Democrats show that a more collectivist approach is needed, and if we make this a more permanent part of our government policy, as it was before Reaganomics, that will be a great blessing, and a fulfillment of the 4T. On the other hand, apparently some authorities like William Barr are pushing for another kind of Patriot Act curtailing civil liberties. That kind of authoritarian agenda is not at all needed, and is an abuse of the crisis. It's what we might expect from the Trump administration. So is the Republican bailout of the rich, which McConnell is proposing and which delays the response that we need.

The relief bill was blocked by Democrats.  They voted against it because they want to pass a 1400 page bill instead full of permanent socialist policies they've been trying to push through for years now.  The Republican bill is much simpler and just a temporary relief package.  IMO, they should have just passed the simpler short term Republican bill quickly so that people can get some sort of relief and then discussed a larger, more permanent bill later.  Now's not the time to be wasting time arguing details.
Just cut out the pork that's holding this up and pass the damn bill so that more people don't lose their jobs and can pay their rent.

The Republicans proposed to give huge breaks to big business and it would not have reached the people and trump too much authority. I hope a better bill is on the 5 yard line as McConnell says.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#20
(03-24-2020, 05:42 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 09:27 AM)Drakus79 Wrote:
(03-23-2020, 06:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(03-22-2020, 05:01 PM)Drakus79 Wrote: I think we're way past the point of it being the catalyst of this 4T.  That's like saying the attack on pearl harbor in 1941 was the catalyst for the last 4T.  We've been in this 4T since at least 2008 (maybe even as early as 9/11/2001).

I do agree that we have to be careful not to go too far with our reaction.  A collapsed economy can cause way more deaths and hardships than this virus.  We also have to be careful not to make too many of these changes permanent.  There are many politicians who are eager to use this crisis to push forward their authoritarian agendas.  That's the downside of too much solidarity.

The reverse may be what's needed, to some extent. The reaction by the financial markets is what is not necessary. The government has not yet responded to the crisis in a competent way. Republicans are blocking the solutions. But the remedies being proposed by Democrats show that a more collectivist approach is needed, and if we make this a more permanent part of our government policy, as it was before Reaganomics, that will be a great blessing, and a fulfillment of the 4T. On the other hand, apparently some authorities like William Barr are pushing for another kind of Patriot Act curtailing civil liberties. That kind of authoritarian agenda is not at all needed, and is an abuse of the crisis. It's what we might expect from the Trump administration. So is the Republican bailout of the rich, which McConnell is proposing and which delays the response that we need.

The relief bill was blocked by Democrats.  They voted against it because they want to pass a 1400 page bill instead full of permanent socialist policies they've been trying to push through for years now.  The Republican bill is much simpler and just a temporary relief package.  IMO, they should have just passed the simpler short term Republican bill quickly so that people can get some sort of relief and then discussed a larger, more permanent bill later.  Now's not the time to be wasting time arguing details.
Just cut out the pork that's holding this up and pass the damn bill so that more people don't lose their jobs and can pay their rent.

The Republicans proposed to give huge breaks to big business and it would not have reached the people and trump too much authority. I hope a better bill is on the 5 yard line as McConnell says.

Businesses need relief too so that their are still jobs to go back to when this is over.  Most people aren't entrepreneurs. You can't fund any of your green new deal policies if there's no income to tax.
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