Open By Easter

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-31-2020, 11:32 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Hey ppl.  I'm on somebody's ignore list.

Congratulations!  

(03-31-2020, 11:32 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: I can't give you that 100% thing because the software bans you.

Go ahead.  You know you want to.  

[Eric the Green]

(04-01-2020, 04:20 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(04-01-2020, 03:58 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-31-2020, 01:19 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: 1. New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures.  You heard it here first.  Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.

2. If they decline, we should remove the business closures.  At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen.  Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.

3. School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.

4. I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system.  On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity.  I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.

1. Nope, ain't happening.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/0...h-28-2020/
Mid May perhaps, but not until then.

2. The US embraced Neoliberalism.  That means the US doesn't make very many masks or any other medical stuff like drugs here either. We'll have to wait for China to get back online and let them use said drugs on their population first.  IOW, US, get to the back of the line.

3. Children are notorious infection spreaders. So that's a stupid idea. Take it from a mumps carrier like me. When I was 5 , mom sorta thought I had the mumps and took me to the doc. Doc said no mumps, but in about 3 or 4 days all the kids in the neighborhood had them.

4. For now. New York now, rest of USA later. Covid-19 plays no politics or favorites. It just comes, like that comet from the East I told Eric about. I think a lot of things here in the US are going to break, bad.  

5. I'm even putting money where my mouth is. I'm expecting a nice big fat bear market. Oh the frauds that will be exposed, the ponzi fracking going bust finally, a bunch of fallen angel corporate bonds.  There's a lot of economic underbrush to clean up. Stuff like hedge funds, LBO doers, and derivative writers.  I'll be OK if the Fed chokes on a bunch of money losing bonds as well. It's bad for its owners you know.

1.  New cases in my state of Massachusetts appear to have peaked on Saturday, and have declined since.  Nationally, new cases clearly departed downward from the previous exponential growth, also on Saturday or so, though they are not declining due to poor management in New York City and possibly other cases.

2.  We don't need medical masks.  Homemade masks are fine.  Also, you can order Chinese masks on Amazon now, suitable for street use if not for medical use.

3.  Children are notorious infection spreaders - absolutely.  That's why school closures are needed, to cut down on massive infections through kids.  I know that since schools were closed in my city, we went from having 3-4 people with colds at any given time to 0.

4.  Massachusetts peaked; New York is clearly not peaking.  Mismanagement can make things worse, as in New York and Italy; good management can help minimize the problems, like South Korea and Massachusetts.

5.  The market was due for a correction anyway.  I wouldn't bet on a crash yet, though the bailout bill makes things a lot worse.

Massachusetts is ramping up again. Over 1000 new cases and back up to #5 in the nation. It depends on when new cases are reported though. There are spikes in reporting as well as in actual new cases. California went back up to #3 with a thousand or so new cases a day or two ago. Now on worldometer CA is back down to 200 new cases and Michigan is #3 again with 1719 new cases, with MA poised to pass CA. So we'll see.

New cases in the USA are over 22,000 today. New cases in New York are down by a thousand or so from yesterday, but still has over twice as many as New Jersey.  But New Jersey new cases are still rising.

The bailout bill helps a lot, and will keep the USA from going into depression. How we pay for it in the long run is another question. Lots of bonds available from Uncle Sam. We are long since bankrupt, unless MMT actually works as our old friend Playwrite used to insist.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The stats keep shifting. Massachusetts is back down to 7th place and CA is back in 3rd. It depends on how the case reporting is going. Louisiana is 5th place and Florida is 6th.

[Eric the Green]

New York 92,381
New Jersey 25,590
California 10,018
Michigan 9,334
Louisiana 9,150
Florida 8,010
Massachusetts 7,738
Illinois 7,016
Pennsylvania 7,016
Washington 5,991
Georgia 5,348
Texas 4,720
Connecticut 3,557

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

update:

Michigan 10,791 3rd place

Florida 9,008
Massachusetts 8,966
Illinois 7,695
Texas 4,823
Connecticut 3,824

[pbrower2a]

Just look at Louisiana -- ooh!

[pbrower2a]

[Ragnarök_62]

(04-01-2020, 03:58 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-31-2020, 01:19 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: 1. New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures.  You heard it here first.  Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.

2. If they decline, we should remove the business closures.  At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen.  Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.

3. School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.

4. I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system.  On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity.  I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.

1. Nope, ain't happening.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/0...h-28-2020/
Mid May perhaps, but not until then.

2. The US embraced Neoliberalism.  That means the US doesn't make very many masks or any other medical stuff like drugs here either. We'll have to wait for China to get back online and let them use said drugs on their population first.  IOW, US, get to the back of the line.

3. Children are notorious infection spreaders. So that's a stupid idea. Take it from a mumps carrier like me. When I was 5 , mom sorta thought I had the mumps and took me to the doc. Doc said no mumps, but in about 3 or 4 days all the kids in the neighborhood had them.

4. For now. New York now, rest of USA later. Covid-19 plays no politics or favorites. It just comes, like that comet from the East I told Eric about. I think a lot of things here in the US are going to break, bad.  

5. I'm even putting money where my mouth is. I'm expecting a nice big fat bear market. Oh the frauds that will be exposed, the ponzi fracking going bust finally, a bunch of fallen angel corporate bonds.  There's a lot of economic underbrush to clean up. Stuff like hedge funds, LBO doers, and derivative writers.  I'll be OK if the Fed chokes on a bunch of money losing bonds as well. It's bad for its owners you know.

1.  New cases in my state of Massachusetts appear to have peaked on Saturday, and have declined since.  Nationally, new cases clearly departed downward from the previous exponential growth, also on Saturday or so, though they are not declining due to poor management in New York City and possibly other cases.

2.  We don't need medical masks.  Homemade masks are fine.  Also, you can order Chinese masks on Amazon now, suitable for street use if not for medical use.

3.  Children are notorious infection spreaders - absolutely.  That's why school closures are needed, to cut down on massive infections through kids.  I know that since schools were closed in my city, we went from having 3-4 people with colds at any given time to 0.

4.  Massachusetts peaked; New York is clearly not peaking.  Mismanagement can make things worse, as in New York and Italy; good management can help minimize the problems, like South Korea and Massachusetts.

5.  The market was due for a correction anyway.  I wouldn't bet on a crash yet, though the bailout bill makes things a lot worse.

1.  I'm speaking for the US as a whole.  Oklahoma hasn't even started yet on the curve. There's no mandatory lockdown except on city option and just try to get a virus test here. Also the case fatality rate on that site I think Pbrowerd has, Oklahoma at a nice fat 4.5%. Typical Red State stuff like puny Medicaid payments, no expanded Obamacare, and Oklahoma is in the top 3 states for being obese.  Oklahoma's public healthcare sucks real big, as does the USA's highest cost in the world "sickcare", with banana republic results.
https://healthyorbit.com/best-coronavirus-mask-n95/

Just look at our breath taking case fatality rates! Gov Stitt needs to renamed to Gov Shit.   I reckon it won't be long until other states embargo entry of Okies.  All couties, OK, so nobody thought what's going China wouldn't come here. Gotta love that "it won't happen here" logic.
https://kfor.com/news/local/stitt-declar...-counties/
No vacancy signs for us in the ER, sucks to be us.

2. You need these kinds.
https://healthyorbit.com/best-coronavirus-mask-n95/
N95 masks, which are now embargoed to usual shoppers, because in part ... banana republic style "sickcare".
https://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/...NAV_Search


3. In agreement.

4. See 1.  NB. I expect incompetence all around in the US response.  Starting the top, Trump and his basket full of dotards, to Oklahoma's Gov. Stitt, whose a complete idiot, to the local big biz medical stuff.

5. Oh yes, the stawk market where opinions are like assholes, everyone's got one. So I think we're in a corrective wave up for the short term.
Then it should then bounce from 183 to 211, then it's a fight between the Fed and assorted karma from market forces.

[pbrower2a]

(03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more.  That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12).  He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.

New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures.  You heard it here first.  Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.

Not happening. 



As of April 2 the USA was on the fastest curve upward with only slight mitigation of the trajectory. You might notice that China and South Korea show proportionally few new cases because their curves have flattened. Don't trust sources of the PRC? There is South Korea, which has  functioning democracy with a free press and a government capable of swift, decisive action even at the expense of economic discomfort. 

The scale shown on the graph is semi-logarithmic, which means that as cases double every three days we will go to about a million in nine or ten days, ten million in twenty, a hundred million in thirty, and 300 million in about thirty-five days. That is roughly the maximum of spread of the disease for reasons that should be obvious.

The damage to American business is obvious enough with shutdowns -- but imagine what life is like here if twenty million people are infected. Our people become pariahs of the world. Our airlines are unable to take people to other countries because one of the passengers is the Angel of Death unwelcome everywhere. This character needs no passport or visa. We find it difficult to sell stuff on the foreign market, and people overseas are chary of making deals in America to sell us stuff. 

Quote:If they decline, we should remove the business closures.  At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen.  Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.

I would be willing to wear a face mask while watching a feature film or theater play, attending a concert or sporting event, or visiting a museum. It is difficult of course to eat or drink while wearing a face mask. That is trouble for movie theaters that break even on the flick and make their profit off the popcorn, candy, and sodas. 

Quote:School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.

Social distancing is impossible in a jetliner, city bus,  theater, concert hall, nightclub, casino, dance hall, or place of worship. We will get better at it. 

Yesterday I was in Wal*Mart and someone got closer to me than six feet while we were in line. I politely reminded me (he seemed mentally retarded) to keep his difference, which is marked off toward the checkout. We are getting better at it.    

Quote:I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system.  On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity.  I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.

It will take longer than you now think. Note well that we will start to find ways of doing things that we used to enjoy doing --ways to not spread the COVID-19 plague. I suspect that the Sunday drive, hike, or bicycle ride will comeback into vogue. If we want the food that a restaurant cooks, we need to pick it up ourselves or have it delivered. If there are no picnic tables available we will need to eat in the car should we travel (which is messy). Maybe we will need appointments to use some popular state and national parks -- and swimming holes. AND -- because this plague is likely to either remain or rebound -- ski lifts for the 2020-2021 season.

The 2020 Olympic games have been rescheduled for 2021. That should tell you something.

[Eric the Green]

Coronavirus Cases in USA as of April 4, 5:30 AM eastern:
277,522
Deaths:
7,403
Recovered:
12,283

New York 103,476
New Jersey 29,895
Michigan 12,744
California 12,581
Massachusetts 10,402
Louisiana 10,297
Florida 10,268
Illinois 8,904
Pennsylvania 8,420
Washington 6,966
Georgia 5,967
Texas 5,658
Connecticut 4,914
Colorado 4,173

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[pbrower2a]

The appearance of Louisiana is a clear warning that the worst ravages of COVID-19 are yet to befall America. To be sure, New Orleans is a cosmopolitan city with a huge number of travelers (such as workers on offshore oil rigs, and New Orleans is where they are most likely to go for R&R)... but New Orleans is the staging area for COVID-19 reaching people in a not-so-cosmopolitan area that includes the rest of Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama -- here medical infrastructure is inadequate even in good times.

...despite the proximity to New York City, Connecticut and Ne Jersey seem to be doing better than expected.

Initially the stereotypical victim of COVID-19 as the frequent flyer, so far as I could tell from the "Recent Deaths" list on Wikipedia...