Open By Easter

[pbrower2a]

If Trump were at all competent he would have promised a much later time, but told people that if they did things right, then life would be back to normal earlier.

[David Horn]

(03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more.  That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12).  He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.

Trump is taking the proverbial path of least resistance. He needs to be at least close to rational, or he won't get his ratings.  So he goes with 100,000.  If he's close, he'll claim he prevented a worse calamity.  If he's lowballing it, he'll modify his estimate later and play the blame-game.

This is not about doing the right thing -- not for the Donald. It's all marketing.

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-30-2020, 01:02 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more.  That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12).  He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.

Trump is taking the proverbial path of least resistance. He needs to be at least close to rational, or he won't get his ratings.  So he goes with 100,000.  If he's close, he'll claim he prevented a worse calamity.  If he's lowballing it, he'll modify his estimate later and play the blame-game.

This is not about doing the right thing -- not for the Donald. It's all marketing.

Well. He needs to be close to rational by standards he is setting. I don't think the virus will let him set standards. I heard a high infection count in rural Louisiana. When the rural areas start getting hit hard, I suspect Trump will too.

[David Horn]

(03-30-2020, 04:26 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 01:02 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more.  That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12).  He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.

Trump is taking the proverbial path of least resistance. He needs to be at least close to rational, or he won't get his ratings.  So he goes with 100,000.  If he's close, he'll claim he prevented a worse calamity.  If he's lowballing it, he'll modify his estimate later and play the blame-game.

This is not about doing the right thing -- not for the Donald. It's all marketing.

Well.  He needs to be close to rational by standards he is setting.  I don't think the virus will let him set standards.  I heard a high infection count in rural Louisiana.  When the rural areas start getting hit hard, I suspect Trump will too.

To be honest, rural areas self-isolate by design.  Yes, there is church, which is a biggie and may prove to be life altering.  Other than that, stores aren't packed and neither are parks or the great outdoors in general.  I'm sure there will be rural hotspots, and I hope we're not one, but most areas will be hit lightly.  That's the experience of the Spanish Flu, and this looks similar from the epidemiological perspective.

[Warren Dew]

(03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more.  That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12).  He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.

New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures.  You heard it here first.  Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.

If they decline, we should remove the business closures.  At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen.  Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.

School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.

I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system.  On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity.  I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more.  That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12).  He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.

New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures.  You heard it here first.  Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.

If they decline, we should remove the business closures.  At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen.  Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.

School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.

I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system.  On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity.  I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.

I suspect you err on the do little side.  Some states have not even begun the preventative isolations, let alone reached the peaks of infection and deaths.  Florida in particular is showing higher on the smart thermometer tests than New York and has no state wide isolation.  Missouri is not yet mandating isolation in spite of a record increase in caseload.  The way that states are not isolating until after things get out of hand means more hot spots developing.  I would rather delay the isolation end until we reach the nearly nothing stage, when the curves are clearly down, and when we have no shortage of stuff like ventilators, masks, gloves, tests, etc...

The reasons to reduce cases below the capacity of the health cares system are called people.  Those who value money more than people may have a different outlook.  Still, one could argue that a nation wide isolation and mandated making of supplies ahead of time along with distribution according to need would have only ended the problem earlier.  Continued half measures and no measures will only prolong the time when the economy is crippled.

I do think much thought should be given to restarting the economy while maintaining as much isolation as possible.  The managers in limbo that want to kick the economy going soonest should be thinking of how you can get work done with as much isolation as possible.  This need not go on forever, but might allow some restart sooner.

I have been watching MSNBC's admittedly blue biased reporting of the virus. Their reporting is much more in line with Cumo, of rolling hot spots, of problems showing first in the blue coastal port cities, then moving elsewhere. While they are definitely biased against Trump's Happy Talk - minimizing the problem, biased as much as possible towards keeping the economy going - what the coastal media say about and expanding problem and the state of the hospitals is backed by science and good reporting. If you are going to be on the Happy Talk rapid relaxation of isolation side of things, you might want to catch some blue leaning news reporting. Much of Trump's reality is lies and keeping his mind on the false reality.

[Ragnarök_62]

(03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more.  That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12).  He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.

1. New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures.  You heard it here first.  Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.

2. If they decline, we should remove the business closures.  At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen.  Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.

3. School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.

4. I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system.  On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity.  I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.

1. Nope, ain't happening.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/0...h-28-2020/
Mid May perhaps, but not until then.

2. The US embraced Neoliberalism.  That means the US doesn't make very many masks or any other medical stuff like drugs here either. We'll have to wait for China to get back online and let them use said drugs on their population first.  IOW, US, get to the back of the line.

3. Children are notorious infection spreaders. So that's a stupid idea. Take it from a mumps carrier like me. When I was 5 , mom sorta thought I had the mumps and took me to the doc. Doc said no mumps, but in about 3 or 4 days all the kids in the neighborhood had them.

4. For now. New York now, rest of USA later. Covid-19 plays no politics or favorites. It just comes, like that comet from the East I told Eric about. I think a lot of things here in the US are going to break, bad.  

5. I'm even putting money where my mouth is. I'm expecting a nice big fat bear market. Oh the frauds that will be exposed, the ponzi fracking going bust finally, a bunch of fallen angel corporate bonds.  There's a lot of economic underbrush to clean up. Stuff like hedge funds, LBO doers, and derivative writers.  I'll be OK if the Fed chokes on a bunch of money losing bonds as well. It's bad for its owners you know.

[TheNomad]

I'm not going to be afraid to say this... I know who I am and what and WHO I do and do not enjoy. I find myself more "agreeing" with the president's bullshit than I feel comfortable with. This whole "by Easter" thing, while it was done wrongly (I feel this president does most everything wrong simply because he is evil and when a person is evil, that evil shows through even if you are trying to do good) I feel it was a goodwill message to America.

I have also heard this president talk about the possibility if Americans are kept like this too long, and AMERICA ITSELF "closed" for too long, it may lead to really ugly things. The former could lead to real ugliness in the human spirit by giving up, the latter could lead to an Economy that cannot return......... leaving us ALL in a place of collective bedlam.

I am a person who is unabashed to say I agree with something, even if that something comes from the bible if I'm a muslim, from a ghost when I don't believe in such things or from the mouth of someone I personally despise.

I have read real reports that talk about MILLIONS of us will get this virus. Millions. That includes if we do everything right and remain "isolated". I have read about how long this thing is supposed to last, going to the outer edge of 18mo to 2 full years. If anyone thinks we can all remain indoors that long.................. even if the government was able to provide ALL of us direct deposit checks for that long........ when we come outside at the end, it will be the end of Planet of the Apes and we won't even know how to survive. We won't be anything like what we were a month ago. Even if millions of us die and we survive as a collective, whatever we had become since 1776 will no longer exist, we might be Chinese or Russian assets as a people, etc.

So, at the risk of all that, I agree that staying on the bright side is the right thing to do however much throwing that idea out there was in opposition to "science" as doctors and scientists have created the models.

"America, our country, was not meant to be closed."

Wrong? No, it's correct. America is now on a bad foundation of The Economy..... one that is based on a model that simply does not exist in nature or "reality" at all. That model is UNENDING UPWARD TRAJECTORY. There is no such thing. NOTHING can exist in a perpetual state of RISE. It doesn't happen. That's called ALCHEMY. But now, since we are so dependent on that, Collective We cannot even pause for a month without a virtual threat to our entire way of life.

A month as opposed to a year.

[Ragnarök_62]

(03-31-2020, 10:49 PM)TheNomad Wrote: "America, our country, was not meant to be closed."

Wrong?  No, it's correct.  America is now on a bad foundation of The Economy..... one that is based on a model that simply does not exist in nature or "reality" at all.  That model is UNENDING UPWARD TRAJECTORY.  There is no such thing.  NOTHING can exist in a perpetual state of RISE.  It doesn't happen.  That's called ALCHEMY.  But now, since we are so dependent on that, Collective We cannot even pause for a month without a virtual threat to our entire way of life.  

A month as opposed to a year.

Nawww.  It's the my era , the age of Aquarius is cancelled. It's now the age of Ragnarök man.  The era after the comet crosses. I see lots of karma coming due.  There's financial bubbles that need popping. There's borders to be closed. There's the need for antifragil and autarky.  (The factories are coming back, one way or another. There are tax shelter countries to be sanctioned. There are troops to bring back home.  A lot of the world shall slip into anarchy. In short it's like it's always been. There's also climate change for a nice big fat cherry on top.

"As it was for our ancestors, so it shall be again for our decedents."


And this.
"You cannot send messages to TheNomad because you're on their ignore list."

Hey ppl.  I'm on somebody's ignore list.

I can't give you that 100% thing because the software bans you.

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-31-2020, 10:49 PM)TheNomad Wrote: I'm not going to be afraid to say this... I know who I am and what and WHO I do and do not enjoy.  I find myself more "agreeing" with the president's bullshit than I feel comfortable with.  This whole "by Easter" thing, while it was done wrongly (I feel this president does most everything wrong simply because he is evil and when a person is evil, that evil shows through even if you are trying to do good) I feel it was a goodwill message to America...  "America, our country, was not meant to be closed."  (Snip.)

Wrong?  No, it's correct.  America is now on a bad foundation of The Economy..... one that is based on a model that simply does not exist in nature or "reality" at all.  That model is UNENDING UPWARD TRAJECTORY.  There is no such thing.  NOTHING can exist in a perpetual state of RISE.  It doesn't happen.  That's called ALCHEMY.  But now, since we are so dependent on that, Collective We cannot even pause for a month without a virtual threat to our entire way of life.  

A month as opposed to a year.

You are more loyal to the hedonism of the unraveling than you are loyal to doing what you need to benefit your country.  Thus, you resist the turning of the Turning.  You want Trump’s fantasies to be true, even as you reject them in your saner moments.

There cannot be an unending upward trajectory.  The hedonism of the Unraveling must end as the cycles progress.

Grow up.  The crisis will end when we beat the bug.  This may be a vaccine, a treatment, or learning to get the economy going while in isolation.  These things are more likely to happen in a year than a month, slower if people are reluctant to work towards these goals.

This is precisely why Nomads cannot be in charge during the Crisis.  They are incapable of grasping the ideals which provide an anchor for the country.

[David Horn]

(04-01-2020, 02:43 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: There cannot be an unending upward trajectory.  The hedonism of the Unraveling must end as the cycles progress.

Grow up.  The crisis will end when we beat the bug.  This may be a vaccine, a treatment, or learning to get the economy going while in isolation.  These things are more likely to happen in a year than a month, slower if people are reluctant to work towards these goals.

This is precisely why Nomads cannot be in charge during the Crisis.  They are incapable of grasping the ideals which provide an anchor for the country.

Right as rain (though what that phrase means is a bit of mystery to me  ). 

Beginning with the election in November, we're either moving ahead or we're not.  99% of that is political this time, because we have the Orange One, and he's unusually disreputable and incompetent.  Barring some unforeseen miracle, we'll have basic competence in 2021 at best.  That's not a prescription for fundamental change, and that's what we need at this point.  Strong showings in Congress can certainly be a net plus, but Legislatures don't lead -- they authorize and fund.

Trump has managed to do most of what Steve Bannon wanted: he decimated government headcount and reversed almost every progressive advance made in the last 40 years -- including some by other Republicans.  I don't see Uncle Joe manhandling that back from the edge, and restoring the losses -- a minimum before real progress begins.  So it's 2024 before movement can be expected, and the Republicans will be ready with their favorite argument that the government is doing too much and stealing all your money.

This may still go all the way to the next 2T.

[sbarrera]

(04-01-2020, 10:29 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-01-2020, 02:43 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: There cannot be an unending upward trajectory.  The hedonism of the Unraveling must end as the cycles progress.

Grow up.  The crisis will end when we beat the bug.  This may be a vaccine, a treatment, or learning to get the economy going while in isolation.  These things are more likely to happen in a year than a month, slower if people are reluctant to work towards these goals.

This is precisely why Nomads cannot be in charge during the Crisis.  They are incapable of grasping the ideals which provide an anchor for the country.

Right as rain (though what that phrase means is a bit of mystery to me  ). 

Beginning with the election in November, we're either moving ahead or we're not.  99% of that is political this time, because we have the Orange One, and he's unusually disreputable and incompetent.  Barring some unforeseen miracle, we'll have basic competence in 2021 at best.  That's not a prescription for fundamental change, and that's what we need at this point.  Strong showings in Congress can certainly be a net plus, but Legislatures don't lead -- they authorize and fund.

Trump has managed to do most of what Steve Bannon wanted: he decimated government headcount and reversed almost every progressive advance made in the last 40 years -- including some by other Republicans.  I don't see Uncle Joe manhandling that back from the edge, and restoring the losses -- a minimum before real progress begins.  So it's 2024 before movement can be expected, and the Republicans will be ready with their favorite argument that the government is doing too much and stealing all your money.

This may still go all the way to the next 2T.

Biden's better than Trump...but not much better. So I agree, barring some drastic occurrence we won't have a proper President until 2024.

[Eric the Green]

(04-01-2020, 10:29 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-01-2020, 02:43 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: There cannot be an unending upward trajectory.  The hedonism of the Unraveling must end as the cycles progress.

Grow up.  The crisis will end when we beat the bug.  This may be a vaccine, a treatment, or learning to get the economy going while in isolation.  These things are more likely to happen in a year than a month, slower if people are reluctant to work towards these goals.

This is precisely why Nomads cannot be in charge during the Crisis.  They are incapable of grasping the ideals which provide an anchor for the country.

Right as rain (though what that phrase means is a bit of mystery to me  ). 

Beginning with the election in November, we're either moving ahead or we're not.  99% of that is political this time, because we have the Orange One, and he's unusually disreputable and incompetent.  Barring some unforeseen miracle, we'll have basic competence in 2021 at best.  That's not a prescription for fundamental change, and that's what we need at this point.  Strong showings in Congress can certainly be a net plus, but Legislatures don't lead -- they authorize and fund.

Trump has managed to do most of what Steve Bannon wanted: he decimated government headcount and reversed almost every progressive advance made in the last 40 years -- including some by other Republicans.  I don't see Uncle Joe manhandling that back from the edge, and restoring the losses -- a minimum before real progress begins.  So it's 2024 before movement can be expected, and the Republicans will be ready with their favorite argument that the government is doing too much and stealing all your money.

This may still go all the way to the next 2T.

Aquarius is the sign that rules the legislature. That's one reason I surmise that soon and for many years to come, our legislatures WILL in fact lead, much like they did in the French Revolution. When 2029 comes around, there's some chance we may even have a parliamentary system. At least the proposal will be made.

We need fundamental change. Progress will resume in the 2020s. But it will go all the way to the next 2T; America moves slowly.

[Eric the Green]

(03-31-2020, 11:32 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(03-31-2020, 10:49 PM)TheNomad Wrote: "America, our country, was not meant to be closed."

Wrong?  No, it's correct.  America is now on a bad foundation of The Economy..... one that is based on a model that simply does not exist in nature or "reality" at all.  That model is UNENDING UPWARD TRAJECTORY.  There is no such thing.  NOTHING can exist in a perpetual state of RISE.  It doesn't happen.  That's called ALCHEMY.  But now, since we are so dependent on that, Collective We cannot even pause for a month without a virtual threat to our entire way of life.  

A month as opposed to a year.

Nawww.  It's the my era , the age of Aquarius is cancelled. It's now the age of Ragnarök man.  The era after the comet crosses. I see lots of karma coming due.  There's financial bubbles that need popping. There's borders to be closed. There's the need for antifragil and autarky.  (The factories are coming back, one way or another. There are tax shelter countries to be sanctioned. There are troops to bring back home.  A lot of the world shall slip into anarchy. In short it's like it's always been. There's also climate change for a nice big fat cherry on top.

"As it was for our ancestors, so it shall be again for our decedents."


And this.
"You cannot send messages to TheNomad because you're on their ignore list."

Hey ppl.  I'm on somebody's ignore list.

I can't give you that 100% thing because the software bans you.

Actually, the Age of Aquarius is now beginning. First Saturn, then temporarily Mars, then Jupiter, and by 2024 Pluto, will arrive in the sign of hope and brother/sisterhood. Progress will resume.

decedent means dead people. But that's not how it was for our ancestors. They lived until they died. So will we. And there's progress. The arc of history is long, but it bends toward justice. The "stars" say progress will resume in the 2020s. But everything we want is not achieved in one turning, or probably ever. There's always more to do, more to correct, more to restore, more to create. That's life.

The borders are closed now, for the virus crisis, but they will open again. Globalization cannot be reversed, only handled. Welcome to the Age of Aquarius. It starts on Dec.21.

We begin by cleaning up after the Dump. If the Drumpface is re-elected, which may happen, then it will be up to congress and the states to lead. But they will. By 2023, Drump and his friends will be figureheads.

[David Horn]

(04-01-2020, 12:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Aquarius is the sign that rules the legislature. That's one reason I surmise that soon and for many years to come, our legislatures WILL in fact lead, much like they did in the French Revolution. When 2029 comes around, there's some chance we may even have a parliamentary system. At least the proposal will be made.

We need fundamental change. Progress will resume in the 2020s. But it will go all the way to the next 2T; America moves slowly.

I agree that major change is needed and soon, but getting from here to a parliamentary system is a very long putt. First, rip-out Article I of the US Constitution, then replace it with …

Not.going.to.happen.

[David Horn]

(04-01-2020, 12:27 PM)sbarrera Wrote: Biden's better than Trump...but not much better. So I agree, barring some drastic occurrence we won't have a proper President until 2024.

Biden is a major improvement on the Orange One, but he's just wrong for the times. Having Silent leadership now is just crazy. With Nancy and Stenny in the House, the Silents will continue to reign there. The Senate is still an open question, but one half of the Congress isn't enough to get results … except for judges and a replacement for RBG, who must know by now that she has to bail if the opportunity arises.

Not much to feel great about.

[Eric the Green]

(03-31-2020, 01:19 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more.  That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12).  He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.

1. New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures.  You heard it here first.  Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.

2. If they decline, we should remove the business closures.  At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen.  Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.

3. School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.

4. I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system.  On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity.  I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.

1. Nope, ain't happening.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/0...h-28-2020/
Mid May perhaps, but not until then.

2. The US embraced Neoliberalism.  That means the US doesn't make very many masks or any other medical stuff like drugs here either. We'll have to wait for China to get back online and let them use said drugs on their population first.  IOW, US, get to the back of the line.

3. Children are notorious infection spreaders. So that's a stupid idea. Take it from a mumps carrier like me. When I was 5 , mom sorta thought I had the mumps and took me to the doc. Doc said no mumps, but in about 3 or 4 days all the kids in the neighborhood had them.

4. For now. New York now, rest of USA later. Covid-19 plays no politics or favorites. It just comes, like that comet from the East I told Eric about. I think a lot of things here in the US are going to break, bad.  

5. I'm even putting money where my mouth is. I'm expecting a nice big fat bear market. Oh the frauds that will be exposed, the ponzi fracking going bust finally, a bunch of fallen angel corporate bonds.  There's a lot of economic underbrush to clean up. Stuff like hedge funds, LBO doers, and derivative writers.  I'll be OK if the Fed chokes on a bunch of money losing bonds as well. It's bad for its owners you know.

I agree with Bob; not fast enough.

I don't think 100,000 people will die. But the pandemic is not ending 13-17 days after school closings. It's been 2 weeks already and cases are still accelerating. Lots of people were infected under the radar because we have no testing and no quarantines for those who test positive. Lots of people have already been tested and no results reported, so the number will also rise because of this. I agree with Rags; after messing with New York, the virus has fresh frontiers to conquer in Detroit, Chicago, New Orleans, Los Angeles, and then out to the red states who are neo-liberals with poor services. Pennsylvania, Florida and Georgia are getting hit hard and will get worse because they were slow to impose restrictions. Over half the states have over 1000 confirmed cases now. If recovering states want to lift restrictions, we may need a lot more agents to close state borders. China is our new model of a functioning state, like it or not, for the time being.

Neo-liberalism has indeed apparently hurt us. Do we even have the capacity to make the health instruments and Protective Equipment that we need? Certainly not under a neo-liberal president who is leaving action to the states and not requiring what factories we still have to go on a wartime footing and make the things we need.

Face masks may not work. Lots of health workers now deprived of enough masks can't change them after a day, and get sick. But if they can be infected in one day, they can be infected in one hour, or one minute.

I stick with my prediction, which is now coming true. Recession before the Jupiter-Saturn alignment on Dec. 21. That is happening. Recovery and renewal in the 2020s. 2008 was the worst of the century. But reality will continually prod us to change and reform.

I thought California was going to level off. But the cesspool that is LA has not yet reached its crisis peak. It has over 3 times as many cases as Santa Clara County now, which used to be the state leader in cases.

I don't speak acronymese. What is LBO??

[Eric the Green]

(04-01-2020, 12:58 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-01-2020, 12:27 PM)sbarrera Wrote: Biden's better than Trump...but not much better. So I agree, barring some drastic occurrence we won't have a proper President until 2024.

Biden is a major improvement on the Orange One, but he's just wrong for the times.  Having Silent leadership now is just crazy.  With Nancy and Stenny in the House, the Silents will continue to reign there.  The Senate is still an open question, but one half of the Congress isn't enough to get results … except for judges and a replacement for RBG, who must know by now that she has to bail if the opportunity arises.

Not much to feel great about.

Wow, Steny's a Silent too, born 1939. Decrepit leadership. Nancy has agreed to step down in about 18 months now. The Senate shows good signs of turning over. But the Democrats will have to get ruthless if they want any results. They must end the filibuster, and resolve to put it back on the verge of any defeat (although they probably can't hold it unless the margin is thin; but I expect if they take power they will hold power until the 1T arrives in 2029).

Our boomer generation just has not stepped up to lead. Even the late bloomer boomers from Sherrod Brown (b.1954), Terry McAuliffe (b.1957) to Mitch Landrieu (b.1960), the ones who can win, lost their nerve because it was Biden's turn.

One Gen Xer leader, if chosen veep by Biden, has a chance in 2024 against a weak opponent: Stacey Abrams. She could beat Pence. So could boomer Andrew Cuomo (b.1957).

Remember though, Cuomo is no progressive, and he too was too slow to deal with the virus.

[Warren Dew]

(03-31-2020, 01:19 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: 1. New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures.  You heard it here first.  Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.

2. If they decline, we should remove the business closures.  At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen.  Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.

3. School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.

4. I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system.  On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity.  I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.

1. Nope, ain't happening.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/0...h-28-2020/
Mid May perhaps, but not until then.

2. The US embraced Neoliberalism.  That means the US doesn't make very many masks or any other medical stuff like drugs here either. We'll have to wait for China to get back online and let them use said drugs on their population first.  IOW, US, get to the back of the line.

3. Children are notorious infection spreaders. So that's a stupid idea. Take it from a mumps carrier like me. When I was 5 , mom sorta thought I had the mumps and took me to the doc. Doc said no mumps, but in about 3 or 4 days all the kids in the neighborhood had them.

4. For now. New York now, rest of USA later. Covid-19 plays no politics or favorites. It just comes, like that comet from the East I told Eric about. I think a lot of things here in the US are going to break, bad.  

5. I'm even putting money where my mouth is. I'm expecting a nice big fat bear market. Oh the frauds that will be exposed, the ponzi fracking going bust finally, a bunch of fallen angel corporate bonds.  There's a lot of economic underbrush to clean up. Stuff like hedge funds, LBO doers, and derivative writers.  I'll be OK if the Fed chokes on a bunch of money losing bonds as well. It's bad for its owners you know.

1.  New cases in my state of Massachusetts appear to have peaked on Saturday, and have declined since.  Nationally, new cases clearly departed downward from the previous exponential growth, also on Saturday or so, though they are not declining due to poor management in New York City and possibly other cases.

2.  We don't need medical masks.  Homemade masks are fine.  Also, you can order Chinese masks on Amazon now, suitable for street use if not for medical use.

3.  Children are notorious infection spreaders - absolutely.  That's why school closures are needed, to cut down on massive infections through kids.  I know that since schools were closed in my city, we went from having 3-4 people with colds at any given time to 0.

4.  Massachusetts peaked; New York is clearly not peaking.  Mismanagement can make things worse, as in New York and Italy; good management can help minimize the problems, like South Korea and Massachusetts.

5.  The market was due for a correction anyway.  I wouldn't bet on a crash yet, though the bailout bill makes things a lot worse.

[Eric the Green]

(04-01-2020, 03:58 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-31-2020, 01:19 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: 1. New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures.  You heard it here first.  Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.

2. If they decline, we should remove the business closures.  At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen.  Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.

3. School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.

4. I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system.  On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity.  I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.

1. Nope, ain't happening.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/0...h-28-2020/
Mid May perhaps, but not until then.

2. The US embraced Neoliberalism.  That means the US doesn't make very many masks or any other medical stuff like drugs here either. We'll have to wait for China to get back online and let them use said drugs on their population first.  IOW, US, get to the back of the line.

3. Children are notorious infection spreaders. So that's a stupid idea. Take it from a mumps carrier like me. When I was 5 , mom sorta thought I had the mumps and took me to the doc. Doc said no mumps, but in about 3 or 4 days all the kids in the neighborhood had them.

4. For now. New York now, rest of USA later. Covid-19 plays no politics or favorites. It just comes, like that comet from the East I told Eric about. I think a lot of things here in the US are going to break, bad.  

5. I'm even putting money where my mouth is. I'm expecting a nice big fat bear market. Oh the frauds that will be exposed, the ponzi fracking going bust finally, a bunch of fallen angel corporate bonds.  There's a lot of economic underbrush to clean up. Stuff like hedge funds, LBO doers, and derivative writers.  I'll be OK if the Fed chokes on a bunch of money losing bonds as well. It's bad for its owners you know.

1.  New cases in my state of Massachusetts appear to have peaked on Saturday, and have declined since.  Nationally, new cases clearly departed downward from the previous exponential growth, also on Saturday or so, though they are not declining due to poor management in New York City and possibly other cases.

2.  We don't need medical masks.  Homemade masks are fine.  Also, you can order Chinese masks on Amazon now, suitable for street use if not for medical use.

3.  Children are notorious infection spreaders - absolutely.  That's why school closures are needed, to cut down on massive infections through kids.  I know that since schools were closed in my city, we went from having 3-4 people with colds at any given time to 0.

4.  Massachusetts peaked; New York is clearly not peaking.  Mismanagement can make things worse, as in New York and Italy; good management can help minimize the problems, like South Korea and Massachusetts.

5.  The market was due for a correction anyway.  I wouldn't bet on a crash yet, though the bailout bill makes things a lot worse.

Massachusetts is ramping up again. Over 1000 new cases and back up to #5 in the nation. It depends on when new cases are reported though. There are spikes in reporting as well as in actual new cases. California went back up to #3 with a thousand or so new cases a day or two ago. Now on worldometer CA is back down to 200 new cases and Michigan is #3 again with 1719 new cases, with MA poised to pass CA. So we'll see.

New cases in the USA are over 22,000 today. New cases in New York are down by a thousand or so from yesterday, but still has over twice as many as New Jersey.  But New Jersey new cases are still rising.

The bailout bill helps a lot, and will keep the USA from going into depression. How we pay for it in the long run is another question. Lots of bonds available from Uncle Sam. We are long since bankrupt, unless MMT actually works as our old friend Playwrite used to insist.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/