When Did The "Crisis" Begin?

[TheNomad]

simple enough

the longer I live, the more I am aware that America has had a pretty-much continual crisis for a long time, with small periods of "well-being".  I graduated from high school in the 90s to economic downturn and Iraq War.  I graduated from college during the ".com boom" and just a few years later, it turned into a bust and America reeled from 911 and the Endless Wars still happening yesterday.  Then just a few years later was "The 2008 Thing" (w/e t/f you want to call it) and then for a few years everyone said "America is back again!" even while countless were on the street and living paycheck-to-paycheck and on credit card debt for essentials.

and now this virus.

title "CRISIS" meaning the 4th Turning Crisis.

[Bob Butler 54]

There are at least three crises.  September 11 was a little early, but had a Trigger a values change and debate.  The values change didn't catch and the values were conservative so nobody seems to count it.

There is the generational alignment of Boomer - Nomad - Hero.  This begins a one generation window in which a Trigger could occur.  Selecting the beginning of that one requires a calendar, or perhaps watching for the last Artists to age beyond active power.

There was the Great Recession and Obamacare, but most everything done was undone by Trump.  You can't say Obama presided over the heart of the Crisis, the change in values.  He became one administration among many to embody the see saw.

That leaves the virus as Triggering the values change.  If you want to be more specific, it was when the Chinese Government and the world press realized something very unusual was going on in Wuhan.  I suspect history as written by people who survived it will honor those who embraced the scientific perspective over the economic daydreams and lies.  Politicians who value what the scientists are saying will be preferred.

[Ghost]

Precursors to 4T: Waco siege, Oklahoma City bombing, Columbine shooting, USS Cole bombing
Gray area from 3T to 4T: 9/11 until 2008 crash
When it absolutely became 4T: 2008 Crash
When peak 4T started: Trump v. Hillary election
Epicenter of 4T: Coronavirus

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-31-2020, 07:31 PM)Ghost Wrote: Precursors to 4T: Waco siege, Oklahoma City bombing, Columbine shooting, USS Cole bombing
Gray area from 3T to 4T: 9/11 until 2008 crash
When it absolutely became 4T: 2008 Crash
When peak 4T started: Trump v. Hillary election
Epicenter of 4T: Coronavirus

If the Epicenter is the equivalent of the Crisis War in the Industrial Age, I could agree with that.  By epicenter do you mean when the Trigger and Regeneracy begins?  Trump marks the last president, equivalent to Buchanan or Hoover, that precedes  the Trigger, Regeneracy and Grey Champion.  Thus, I put him at the last moment of ugly.

It seems the Crisis before the Trigger and Regeneracy is a lot like the Unraveling.  Both sets of values are presented.  There are lots of debate, compromise and perhaps stagnation.  The trigger is when the progressive values triumph and the old values step into the background.  They may resurface in a new form during the High.  For example, the KKK and Jim Crow made a comeback after the Reconstruction and Black Republicans.  But McCarthy and company represent how the Nomads usually see the new values stomp on the old.

I would add that we seldom agree with on what specific event is the Trigger, even with a century or more of 20 20 hindsight.  When did the compromises and debate before the US Civil War end, and the conflict becomes inevitable? Harper's Ferry? The election of Lincoln? The shots at Fort Sumter? The exact Trigger might depend on what aspect of history the historian cares most about.

[TheNomad]

(03-31-2020, 07:48 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-31-2020, 07:31 PM)Ghost Wrote: Precursors to 4T: Waco siege, Oklahoma City bombing, Columbine shooting, USS Cole bombing
Gray area from 3T to 4T: 9/11 until 2008 crash
When it absolutely became 4T: 2008 Crash
When peak 4T started: Trump v. Hillary election
Epicenter of 4T: Coronavirus

[this president] marks the last president, equivalent to Buchanan or Hoover, that precedes  the Trigger, Regeneracy and Grey Champion.  Thus, I put him at the last moment of ugly.

That would be quite correct.  According to 4t authors, he will be ruinous until such time that his "power" is handed over to a Nomad.  Due to that, and that we have a similar Ancient to be running against him and not a Nomad (although things are always flexible) I was sad to see that no Nomad has continued on to oppose him, and it points to a second term.

The millstone continues to grind.

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-31-2020, 10:34 PM)TheNomad Wrote: That would be quite correct.  According to 4t authors, he will be ruinous until such time that his "power" is handed over to a Nomad.  Due to that, and that we have a similar Ancient to be running against him and not a Nomad (although things are always flexible) I was sad to see that no Nomad has continued on to oppose him, and it points to a second term.

The millstone continues to grind.

Well, no.  This is the great difference between your ideology and S&H.  The Crisis is supposed to come with a Prophet - Nomad - Hero configuration of generations.  The Grey Champion is supposed to be a Prophet.  The idealism of the prophet generation is an important and positive part of the Crisis configuration.  

Turnings are supposed to be defined by which stereotype is missing.  A Crisis is defined by the Artists being missing.  The trauma is gone, thus the other three sorts of folk are free to run their trial and error.  The High is defined by the lack of ideals.  Ideals missing, you get stagnation, materialism and conformity to the pattern set in the prior Crisis.  This comes under Nomad leadership, where the lack of ideals leads them to do nothing.

The heart of the Crisis, the epicenter, generally occurs with a Prophet Grey Champion.  It starts with some sort of Trigger, not with the aging out of the Prophets.  The military triggers during the three prior Crises would be Lexington & Concord, Fort Sumter, and Pearl Harbor.  All three occurred with the Prophet generation around and quite in charge.

Now the Unraveling is not my favorite time of the cycle.  Oh, the selfishness is nice if you are into that sort of thing.  Ask not what you can do for your country.  Ask what your country can do for you.  But the constant debate between the old values and the new is a pain.  The perpetual argument about whether to go with the old values or the new is tedious.  This sort of back and forth debate across the aisle and see saw is not ideal no matter which set of values you adhere to,  And, essentially the early part of pre-Trigger Crisis is a continuation of the Unraveling.

Ugh.  Say as many bad things about this period continuing too long as you like, but acknowledge that the acceptance of the new ideals is the key to transforming the culture.  That is the ultimate goal of the cycles.  You are allowing the Nomad skepticism of ideals ruin your understanding of S&H.

But to have the new values triumph you want an idealist in charge.  The Prophet is part of the Crisis configuration of generations in providing leadership.  The best the Nomads can do in the High is enforce the new ideals while being materialistic, building infrastructure, and stomping on the old values.  Thus, your ideology in demonizing the Prophets tries to eliminate the ideals of the Prophet generation, and put the transformation incorrectly in the High.  

This is entirely not observed in history and totally wrong according to S&H theory.

[Eric the Green]

(03-31-2020, 07:31 PM)Ghost Wrote: Precursors to 4T: Waco siege, Oklahoma City bombing, Columbine shooting, USS Cole bombing
Gray area from 3T to 4T: 9/11 until 2008 crash
When it absolutely became 4T: 2008 Crash
When peak 4T started: Trump v. Hillary election
Epicenter of 4T: Coronavirus

Have we reached bottom/epicenter?

There's a bottom below

[Eric the Green]

(03-31-2020, 10:34 PM)TheNomad Wrote:

(03-31-2020, 07:48 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-31-2020, 07:31 PM)Ghost Wrote: Precursors to 4T: Waco siege, Oklahoma City bombing, Columbine shooting, USS Cole bombing
Gray area from 3T to 4T: 9/11 until 2008 crash
When it absolutely became 4T: 2008 Crash
When peak 4T started: Trump v. Hillary election
Epicenter of 4T: Coronavirus

[this president] marks the last president, equivalent to Buchanan or Hoover, that precedes  the Trigger, Regeneracy and Grey Champion.  Thus, I put him at the last moment of ugly.

That would be quite correct.  According to 4t authors, he will be ruinous until such time that his "power" is handed over to a Nomad.  Due to that, and that we have a similar Ancient to be running against him and not a Nomad (although things are always flexible) I was sad to see that no Nomad has continued on to oppose him, and it points to a second term.

The millstone continues to grind.

Nomad presidents preside over a boring recovery period. Their priority is to keep things quiet and keep people from rocking the boat. Don't you know that yet?

Most Gen Xers are cynical, and the only ones who have gotten anywhere are Reaganoids. If there was any leadership talent among Gen Xers, it was placed by themselves as far away from the presidency as possible.

[TheNomad]

(04-01-2020, 02:46 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-31-2020, 10:34 PM)TheNomad Wrote:

(03-31-2020, 07:48 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-31-2020, 07:31 PM)Ghost Wrote: Precursors to 4T: Waco siege, Oklahoma City bombing, Columbine shooting, USS Cole bombing
Gray area from 3T to 4T: 9/11 until 2008 crash
When it absolutely became 4T: 2008 Crash
When peak 4T started: Trump v. Hillary election
Epicenter of 4T: Coronavirus

[this president] marks the last president, equivalent to Buchanan or Hoover, that precedes  the Trigger, Regeneracy and Grey Champion.  Thus, I put him at the last moment of ugly.

That would be quite correct.  According to 4t authors, he will be ruinous until such time that his "power" is handed over to a Nomad.  Due to that, and that we have a similar Ancient to be running against him and not a Nomad (although things are always flexible) I was sad to see that no Nomad has continued on to oppose him, and it points to a second term.

The millstone continues to grind.

Nomad presidents preside over a boring recovery period. Their priority is to keep things quiet and keep people from rocking the boat. Don't you know that yet?

Most Gen Xers are cynical, and the only ones who have gotten anywhere are Reaganoids. If there was any leadership talent among Gen Xers, it was placed by themselves as far away from the presidency as possible.

I know nothing until you reveal it, co-master of the forum.  At your feet, I remain until enlightened :\

"Leadership Talent".... is that like goals/rebound/assist stats?

[Bob Butler 54]

The next mismatch is that Trump used the Washington State University model for how many Coronavirus cases and deaths will occur. The model assumes that the states or federal government folk who have not yet adopted isolation will do so in about a week. Presenting the model without starting the isolation tends to make the model results invalid.

[Galen]

(04-01-2020, 04:02 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The next mismatch is that Trump used the Washington State University model for how many Coronavirus cases and deaths will occur.  The model assumes that the states or federal government folk who have not yet adopted isolation will do so in about a week.  Presenting the model without starting the isolation tends to make the model results invalid.

You would do well to remember that most people who get the Coronavirus never show symptoms.  In fact if we take recent data from Italy into account then it is pretty clear the older you are the greater your chances dying. In many respect this is behaving much like the flu does.  Even being at the upper limit of age for Generation X, I like my survival odds but if you are a Boomer your odds are much worse.  Keep in mind that because so many people are asymptomatic and there has been so little testing these mortality rates are an upper bound and the actual mortality rate is likely to be much lower.

Unless you know the underlying assumptions behind the model it is a good idea to take it with a block of salt.  Personally I think the media and governments have been hyping the dangers of this virus for their own purposes.

[David Horn]

(04-01-2020, 04:47 AM)Galen Wrote:

(04-01-2020, 04:02 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The next mismatch is that Trump used the Washington State University model for how many Coronavirus cases and deaths will occur.  The model assumes that the states or federal government folk who have not yet adopted isolation will do so in about a week.  Presenting the model without starting the isolation tends to make the model results invalid.

You would do well to remember that most people who get the Coronavirus never show symptoms.  In fact if we take recent data from Italy into account then it is pretty clear the older you are the greater your chances dying. In many respect this is behaving much like the flu does.  Even being at the upper limit of age for Generation X, I like my survival odds but if you are a Boomer your odds are much worse.  Keep in mind that because so many people are asymptomatic and there has been so little testing these mortality rates are an upper bound and the actual mortality rate is likely to be much lower.

Unless you know the underlying assumptions behind the model it is a good idea to take it with a block of salt.  Personally I think the media and governments have been hyping the dangers of this virus for their own purposes.

First, the best-guess percentage of the asymptomatic COVID-19 infected is 25% -- big but not most.  It's true that the virus is more deadly for the elderly and immuno-compromised individuals, but how much so is still TBD (lack of ventilators may be a huge part of it ... or not).

What we do know is the math of the pandemic, and it's following projections.  May it be true that many more are infected and the death rate is lower?  Sure, but how much is debatable.  Even Italy lacks any indication of herd immunity, and they're still the pandemic poster child. So where's the hype?

[Eric the Green]

(04-01-2020, 03:57 AM)TheNomad Wrote:

(04-01-2020, 02:46 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-31-2020, 10:34 PM)TheNomad Wrote:

(03-31-2020, 07:48 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-31-2020, 07:31 PM)Ghost Wrote: Precursors to 4T: Waco siege, Oklahoma City bombing, Columbine shooting, USS Cole bombing
Gray area from 3T to 4T: 9/11 until 2008 crash
When it absolutely became 4T: 2008 Crash
When peak 4T started: Trump v. Hillary election
Epicenter of 4T: Coronavirus

[this president] marks the last president, equivalent to Buchanan or Hoover, that precedes  the Trigger, Regeneracy and Grey Champion.  Thus, I put him at the last moment of ugly.

That would be quite correct.  According to 4t authors, he will be ruinous until such time that his "power" is handed over to a Nomad.  Due to that, and that we have a similar Ancient to be running against him and not a Nomad (although things are always flexible) I was sad to see that no Nomad has continued on to oppose him, and it points to a second term.

The millstone continues to grind.

Nomad presidents preside over a boring recovery period. Their priority is to keep things quiet and keep people from rocking the boat. Don't you know that yet?

Most Gen Xers are cynical, and the only ones who have gotten anywhere are Reaganoids. If there was any leadership talent among Gen Xers, it was placed by themselves as far away from the presidency as possible.

I know nothing until you reveal it, co-master of the forum.  At your feet, I remain until enlightened :\

"Leadership Talent".... is that like goals/rebound/assist stats?

I know the score

What you need to do, is read over the Fourth Turning book again, and if you still want to change the theory as you are doing, label it as your own. NTTAWWT. Lots of people do it.

[Eric the Green]

Unlike Galen I think the mortality rate is much higher than even the experts say. Those who are asymptomatic and/or untested may also get sick and die. So far, looking at the actual stats,

closed cases:
239,413
Cases which had an outcome:

193,350 (81%)
Recovered / Discharged

46,063 (19%)
Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

among those cases that had an outcome, 19% died. The rest are still sick or have not been tested or their test results are not revealed yet, but are and have been added to the list of cases as the results come in. That looks to me like a 19% death rate, and that % has been increasing.

[Mickey123]

(04-01-2020, 02:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Unlike Galen I think the mortality rate is much higher than even the experts say. Those who are asymptomatic and/or untested may also get sick and die. So far, looking at the actual stats,

closed cases:
239,413
Cases which had an outcome:

193,350 (81%)
Recovered / Discharged

46,063 (19%)
Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

among those cases that had an outcome, 19% died. The rest are still sick or have not been tested or their test results are not revealed yet, but are and have been added to the list of cases as the results come in. That looks to me like a 19% death rate, and that % has been increasing.

While it's possible that all the world's disease experts are wrong and you are correct, that would seem to be unlikely.  Especially given that they're looking at the mortality rate as being in the range of 1%, and you are calling it at 19%.

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-02-2020, 05:08 AM)Mickey123 Wrote: While it's possible that all the world's disease experts are wrong and you are correct, that would seem to be unlikely.  Especially given that they're looking at the mortality rate as being in the range of 1%, and you are calling it at 19%.

From all I have read, and I am no expert, the 1% seems far closer to right. I too think that there are many with no or minor symptoms out there.

[David Horn]

(04-01-2020, 02:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Unlike Galen I think the mortality rate is much higher than even the experts say. Those who are asymptomatic and/or untested may also get sick and die. So far, looking at the actual stats,

closed cases:
239,413
Cases which had an outcome:

193,350 (81%)
Recovered / Discharged

46,063 (19%)
Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

among those cases that had an outcome, 19% died. The rest are still sick or have not been tested or their test results are not revealed yet, but are and have been added to the list of cases as the results come in. That looks to me like a 19% death rate, and that % has been increasing.

There is a built-in error to these data: most illnesses that didn't require hospitalization weren't counted.  There's a well established illness pattern based on degree of exposure.  If you are exposed lightly but enough to trigger an immune response, you may never get sick, but be immune nonetheless. As the degree of exposure rises, so does the seriousness of illnesses and the mortality rate.  So riding the subway to work everyday in crowded conditions means the number and degree of illnesses will be high -- mortality as well.  Walking past an infected person once may not even trigger a response.

[Bob Butler 54]

For example, in the Kingston Mall case near Boston, the mother drops of the kids to hang out. The kids are young enough that few if any of them develop a big deal case, but they pass it on to their family. Grandma in the multi generation house dies. If the mother is careless enough of the stay home order to drop of the kids, she probably is seeing other families. The bug spreads to other families...

The whole point of the Massachusetts stay at home order is defeated. The virus is more common, and the precautions take longer to be removed. The economy is hurt as a result.

[Eric the Green]

(04-02-2020, 11:43 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-01-2020, 02:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Unlike Galen I think the mortality rate is much higher than even the experts say. Those who are asymptomatic and/or untested may also get sick and die. So far, looking at the actual stats,

closed cases:
239,413
Cases which had an outcome:

193,350 (81%)
Recovered / Discharged

46,063 (19%)
Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

among those cases that had an outcome, 19% died. The rest are still sick or have not been tested or their test results are not revealed yet, but are and have been added to the list of cases as the results come in. That looks to me like a 19% death rate, and that % has been increasing.

There is a built-in error to these data: most illnesses that didn't require hospitalization weren't counted.  There's a well established illness pattern based on degree of exposure.  If you are exposed lightly but enough to trigger an immune response, you may never get sick, but be immune nonetheless. As the degree of exposure rises, so does the seriousness of illnesses and the mortality rate.  So riding the subway to work everyday in crowded conditions means the number and degree of illnesses will be high -- mortality as well.  Walking past an infected person once may not even trigger a response.

From what I can gather from the reports, the cases include those not hospitalized. But it does not count those who have not been tested, or those tested but whose results are not reported yet. Of these we have no idea whether death may or may not result. As tests are reported, positive tests are added to the number of cases reported, and that has been going on since the beginning. Of the 800,000 or so cases which have not had an outcome yet, they could have an outcome anytime, and the trend among those who then have an outcome, the trend toward death is increasing, not decreasing. So the 20% figure seems much more accurate than the 2% or 1% which the experts say.

It's possible that the death trend could decrease, since deaths seem to come sooner than recoveries. But I don't know that that is the case.

[pbrower2a]

I follow Wikipedia's deaths page, and I see many announcements showing death by COVID-19. Ordinarily one sees other causes (heart failure, cancer, vehicle mishaps, homicide); COVID-19 pops up often, especially among people 55 or older. I am taking no undue risks with a lethal respiratory disease wither to contract it or (ethically worse!) spread it. In some respects COVID-19 is worse than AIDS in that it is a relatively quick kill. If one still has an agenda such as an unfinished creative activity, then a diagnosis of AIDS still allows one to do that. COVID-19 may not allow that. To be sure, AIDS is practically a death sentence, but it at least is avoidable with either monogamy or celibacy and avoidance of IV drug use. I am guessing that people contracted COVID-19 by shopping in crowded markets, attending religious pilgrimages, traveling on cruise boats, or traveling on jetliners.

We are gregarious; we are mobile; many of us are devout in religion; we like to see the wonders of nature and human creativity for ourselves. That is normal. The usual current means of contracting and transmitting AIDS are promiscuity and IV drug use, both of which are suspect. We are being asked to deny ourselves for a considerable time much that is human. Yes, it is inconvenient at best and highly unsettling. When this is over I will want to again do much that I have enjoyed doing before this plague. For such to happen I must survive this plague. COVID-19 is killing lots of people over 55, and I have no desire to join those unfortunate people.

Of course I am 64, and every respiratory infection hits me harder every year. Unless I meet some violent ends, I expect my death certificate to include some sort of respiratory infection. Pneumonia is the coup de grace for many cancer patients.

Most people can wait out a time of deprivation necessary for some noble purpose. Most of us want to leave behind a world at least as good as they entered it. There is much that I have not yet done that I still want to do. I have n desire to throw away such an opportunity.