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COVID-19 is the perfect 4T event?
#21
(04-12-2020, 06:53 PM)mmailliw Wrote: I'll be honest:  COVID-19 was the first thing that had me thinking about "4T" style generational theory in a LONG time!  And it's the first moment that really felt like a "crisis" from where I stand.  Before that, things may have appeared to be very ready to come to a head - but for the most part, it was very easy to pretend (if you wanted) that things hadn't really changed.  2020 'feels' too late to start the 4T, but it does feel very clearly "Crisis" mode in a way that 2001-2004 was not!

(And this is the name I posted under the old forums:  I don't plan on being drawn into generational boundary debates again Wink)

The 2016 election didn't feel 4T to you? That was when I felt it.
Steve Barrera

[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure

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#22
(04-13-2020, 01:49 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(04-05-2020, 07:05 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-05-2020, 05:58 PM)freivolk Wrote:
(04-05-2020, 01:19 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: The evidence is that places which do have public health care systems tend to have have a lot more fatalities than the US does, though - Italy, Spain, France, basically Europe in general.

Give it a week.

People have been saying that for a month now.  We show no signs of catching up.

Well, maybe NYC does.

It's been a week. The USA now has more deaths from covid19 than any other nation. Not per capita though, yet.

It has been a week and Europe still has a lot more deaths than the US has - both accumulated and ongoing.

Austria and Hungary, with their far right governments, seem to be doing fine, though.  Do they know something we don't, or are they just not reporting all their cases?
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#23
It might be the peak of millennial online culture. The lockdowns resulted in online choirs, online weddings, and I bet cyber-sex is enjoying heights of popularity.
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#24
(04-12-2020, 06:53 PM)mmailliw Wrote: I'll be honest:  COVID-19 was the first thing that had me thinking about "4T" style generational theory in a LONG time!  And it's the first moment that really felt like a "crisis" from where I stand.  Before that, things may have appeared to be very ready to come to a head - but for the most part, it was very easy to pretend (if you wanted) that things hadn't really changed.  2020 'feels' too late to start the 4T, but it does feel very clearly "Crisis" mode in a way that 2001-2004 was not!

(And this is the name I posted under the old forums:  I don't plan on being drawn into generational boundary debates again Wink)

I have to agree that COVID-19 is a crisis-level threat, but the lack of a suitable response is the actual crisis.  I'm not sure that another, vastly more competent leader would have changed anything though.  It's just that Trump is so monumentally incompetent and self-delusional, that the response is already going off the rails, and he sees that as a net positive.  November is still a long time in the future, given the pace of things, and the Donald is seriously talking about opening the country for business.  If that happens, Katy bar the door.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#25
(04-13-2020, 09:19 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: It has been a week and Europe still has a lot more deaths than the US has - both accumulated and ongoing.

Austria and Hungary, with their far right governments, seem to be doing fine, though.  Do they know something we don't, or are they just not reporting all their cases?

I suspect that both are in play. Democracies are less able to compel, so tragedies often build until the populous decides to respond. It happened in Italy and in NYC. LA did better.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#26
(04-13-2020, 10:22 AM)David Horn Wrote: I have to agree that COVID-19 is a crisis-level threat, but the lack of a suitable response is the actual crisis.

The same happened in 2008 and 2015.
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#27
(04-13-2020, 09:19 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-13-2020, 01:49 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(04-05-2020, 07:05 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-05-2020, 05:58 PM)freivolk Wrote:
(04-05-2020, 01:19 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: The evidence is that places which do have public health care systems tend to have have a lot more fatalities than the US does, though - Italy, Spain, France, basically Europe in general.

Give it a week.

People have been saying that for a month now.  We show no signs of catching up.

Well, maybe NYC does.

It's been a week. The USA now has more deaths from covid19 than any other nation. Not per capita though, yet.

It has been a week and Europe still has a lot more deaths than the US has - both accumulated and ongoing.

Austria and Hungary, with their far right governments, seem to be doing fine, though.  Do they know something we don't, or are they just not reporting all their cases?

At this point, people from the countries (or regions within the USA) most afflicted with COVID-19 might be as unwelcome as Syrian refugees.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#28
(04-13-2020, 10:38 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(04-13-2020, 10:22 AM)David Horn Wrote: I have to agree that COVID-19 is a crisis-level threat, but the lack of a suitable response is the actual crisis.

The same happened in 2008 and 2015.

2008 was a failure of will and 2015 was a sideshow. I think we're actually there this time.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#29
(04-13-2020, 09:19 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-13-2020, 01:49 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(04-05-2020, 07:05 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-05-2020, 05:58 PM)freivolk Wrote:
(04-05-2020, 01:19 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: The evidence is that places which do have public health care systems tend to have have a lot more fatalities than the US does, though - Italy, Spain, France, basically Europe in general.

Give it a week.

People have been saying that for a month now.  We show no signs of catching up.

Well, maybe NYC does.

It's been a week. The USA now has more deaths from covid19 than any other nation. Not per capita though, yet.

It has been a week and Europe still has a lot more deaths than the US has - both accumulated and ongoing.

Austria and Hungary, with their far right governments, seem to be doing fine, though.  Do they know something we don't, or are they just not reporting all their cases?

Europe is 600 million people and the USA is 300 million. The number of new cases in Europe has leveled off, except in the right-wing Trumpist-controlled and negligent UK, where its own Trump clone got sick and almost died, and cases are accelerating and increasing at the fastest rate outside the USA. But cases in Europe sans the brexited UK continue to rise steadily. Meanwhile the USA's number of cases more-recently went through the roof and is now almost as many as all of Europe, and still rising much faster. Will the number of deaths follow suit? We don't know yet, but it's on the way. I hope not.

Germany has been the best at cutting down deaths, if not case numbers. They carried out extensive testing. Austria had a spike in cases, but seems to be leveling off now. Authoritarian government whether right or left does seem to work better in enforcing lock-downs and quarantines, and it works. We need to move in that direction now in the USA, temporarily. We need federal action to enforce shelter in place and quarantines, and to develop and distribute needed testing and protective equipment and develop vaccines. Borders, both state and national, must be tightened and all people crossing them tested. How many unemployed people could be put to work, if we had a more "socialist" approach right now and the government started hiring people to do this job? How many people could be employed by industries given work by the national emergency production act, or whatever it's called?

We need national leadership, not neo-liberalism, and we're not getting it. South Korea was able to make progress without being an authoritarian government per se. Japan, Taiwan and Singapore are doing pretty well. The USA is a global disgrace.

California has a small fraction of the deaths and new cases per capita than other big states. It enforced shelter in place early, and people are relatively responsible. But it's still part of the incompetent USA, and in our county, where the infection of the USA may have first appeared, it means that new cases continue at about 60 a day over the last 3 weeks with no end in sight. The curve is flat here in Silicon Valley, but not going down. We still have plenty of hospital resources though. Only about 300 people are hospitalized here out of over 1600 cases. About 55 have died here.

Coronavirus Cases (9 PM GMT):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
1,917,209
Deaths:
119,090
Recovered:
441,232

559,915 cases which had an outcome:
Recovered / Discharged 441,232 (79%)
Deaths 118,683 (21%)

(figures might increase in a few hours especially for the USA)
place / cases / new cases / total deaths / new deaths
World 1,912,438 +60,181 118,683 +4,489
USA 583,411 +23,111 23,462 +1,357
Spain 169,496 +2,665 17,489 +280
Italy 159,516 +3,153 20,465 +566
France 136,779 +4,188 14,967 +574
Germany 128,208 +354 3,043 +21
UK 88,621 +4,342 11,329 +717
China 82,160 +108 3,341 +2
Iran 73,303 +1,617 4,585 +111
Turkey 61,049 +4,093 1,296 +98
Belgium 30,589 +942 3,903 +303
Netherlands 26,551 +964 2,823 +86
Switzerland 25,688 +273 1,138 +32
Canada 25,552 +1,169 767 +50
Brazil 22,720 +528 1,270 +47
Russia 18,328 +2,558 148 +18
Portugal 16,934 +349 535 +31
Austria 14,041 +96 368 +18
Israel 11,586 +441 116 +13
Sweden 10,948 +465 919 +20
Ireland 10,647 +992 365 +31
S. Korea 10,537 +25 217 +3
India 10,453 +1,248 358 +27
Peru 9,784 +2,265 193

USA Coronavirus Cases:
(will be updated today)


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
state / cases / new cases / total deaths / new deaths
New York 195,031 +5,616 10,056 +671
New Jersey 64,584 +2,734 2,443 +93
Massachusetts 26,867 +1,392 844 +88
Michigan 25,635 +997 1,602 +115
Pennsylvania 24,292 +1,372 590 +29
California 23,428 +251 682 +8
Illinois 22,025 +1,173 794 +74
Louisiana 21,016 +421 884 +44
Florida 20,601 +706 470 +9
Texas 13,906 +266 287 +9
Georgia 13,315 +765 464 +22


CA large county / total cases / total deaths (as of April 11)

Los Angeles County 8,873 265
San Diego County 1,761 45
Santa Clara County 1,621 54
Riverside County 1,431 41
Orange County 1,221 18
San Francisco County 872 14
San Bernardino County 810 25
Alameda County 808 21
Sacramento County 699 26
San Mateo County 652 21
Contra Costa County 530 11
Kern County 369 3
Ventura County 309 10
Santa Barbara County 267 2
San Joaquin County 260 15
Tulare County 227 11
Fresno County 201 5
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#30
Here's an example of how COVID-19 makes a perfect 4T event - forcing multi-generational families into existence-

https://www.latimes.com/california/story...-isolation
Steve Barrera

[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure

Saecular Pages
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#31
(04-13-2020, 02:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Europe is 600 million people and the USA is 300 million. The number of new cases in Europe has leveled off

Substitute "EU" or "Euro zone" for "Europe", then.  The Euro Zone by itself has far more deaths than the US, and more deaths per day, despite a smaller population.

The number of new cases per day in Europe has leveled off, but so has the number of new cases per day in the US.  There is absolutely no doubt that the US is doing better than the EU.
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#32
(04-14-2020, 11:06 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-13-2020, 02:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Europe is 600 million people and the USA is 300 million. The number of new cases in Europe has leveled off

Substitute "EU" or "Euro zone" for "Europe", then.  The Euro Zone by itself has far more deaths than the US, and more deaths per day, despite a smaller population.

The number of new cases per day in Europe has leveled off, but so has the number of new cases per day in the US.  There is absolutely no doubt that the US is doing better than the EU.

I believe there are two factors helping the US:

1) we started social distancing earlier in the curve
2) we have more healthcare infrastructure
Steve Barrera

[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure

Saecular Pages
Reply
#33
(04-14-2020, 11:06 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-13-2020, 02:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Europe is 600 million people and the USA is 300 million. The number of new cases in Europe has leveled off

Substitute "EU" or "Euro zone" for "Europe", then.  The Euro Zone by itself has far more deaths than the US, and more deaths per day, despite a smaller population.

The number of new cases per day in Europe has leveled off, but so has the number of new cases per day in the US.  There is absolutely no doubt that the US is doing better than the EU.
 
Obviously looking at the graphs and the trends, the USA has shot up at a rate far exceeding Europe's. There is no such leveling off. 26,000 new cases a day while European countries have 3000 a day is not "leveling off." Things are still getting worse in the USA and the UK. Europe includes all the European continent, and that includes Russia and excludes the brexiting British Isles except Ireland. The UK is a land apart, hung up on nostalgia for the British Empire and trending toward Trumpism. It was slow to enact the social distancing and economy-closing measures, and the result is trends like those in Trump's USA. 

The USA has almost as many total cases now as all of this Europe, so defined, and about half the population.  Whether this later on includes total deaths too depends on whether US policy changes. So far it has not changed, and Trump is trying to reopen the economy. If he does that, and gets that done in the red states, then cases there will continue to rise dramatically and won't level off for over a year. Health care in those areas is poor, and those who get sick will not see a doctor or hospital because it costs too much to go, so cases will go untested and the virus will spread. This will hamper recovery in the blue and coastal states too, and so the USA will not recover anytime soon, and blue states will not be able to reopen.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
(April 13)

country / total cases / new cases / total deaths / new deaths
USA 586,941 +26,641 23,640 +1,535
Spain 170,099 +3,268 17,756 +547
Italy 159,516 +3,153 20,465 +566
France 136,779 +4,188 14,967 +574
Germany 130,072 +2,218 3,194 +172
UK 88,621 +4,342 11,329 +717
China 82,160 +108 3,341 +2
Iran 73,303 +1,617 4,585 +111
Turkey 61,049 +4,093 1,296 +98
Belgium 30,589 +942 3,903 +303
Netherlands 26,551 +964 2,823 +86
Switzerland 25,688 +273 1,138 +32
Canada 25,680 +1,297 780 +63
Brazil 23,430 +1,238 1,328 +105
Russia 18,328 +2,558 148 +18
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#34
(04-14-2020, 11:42 AM)sbarrera Wrote:
(04-14-2020, 11:06 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-13-2020, 02:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Europe is 600 million people and the USA is 300 million. The number of new cases in Europe has leveled off

Substitute "EU" or "Euro zone" for "Europe", then.  The Euro Zone by itself has far more deaths than the US, and more deaths per day, despite a smaller population.

The number of new cases per day in Europe has leveled off, but so has the number of new cases per day in the US.  There is absolutely no doubt that the US is doing better than the EU.

I believe there are two factors helping the US:

1) we started social distancing earlier in the curve
2) we have more healthcare infrastructure


The USA is not being "helped" very much.

The USA started on the social distancing curve sooner than some European countries (Italy, maybe) but not others (Germany). The USA is less consistent in this policy than European countries, with some states doing more than others and little national leadership.

The US state that has done the best by far is Washington. Kudoes to Governor Inslee and the people there. California is doing better than most big states, ranking #6 in total cases and #7 in total deaths despite being #1 in population and having been struck first, but it still has a problem.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#35
(04-14-2020, 11:42 AM)sbarrera Wrote:  believe there are two factors helping the US:

1) we started social distancing earlier in the curve
2) we have more healthcare infrastructure

I agree.  I think we also benefited from early travel restrictions from China.  Many others followed within days, but a few days made a huge difference on the early exponential curve.

We didn't jump on travel restrictions from Europe quite as quickly, which is likely the main reason the East Coast is worse than the West Coast.
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#36
We have not benefited at all; things are worse than ever. Now our idiot in chief is trying to force the USA to reopen the economy when the virus shows no signs of receding at all. On the contrary, restrictions and shutdowns should not happen until new cases are near zero, with a vaccine on the way and preventive measures and tests for all happening, otherwise it will ramp up as fast as before. Talk about reopening the economy makes me think that there will be a second wave of the virus, worse than the first, just like what I hear happened in 1918.

I predicted this downturn for this time here on this forum and elsewhere for years, and I foresaw health and financial challenges for the USA in March at my January lecture on the year to come. But it looks maybe to be worse than I thought. The pandemic is not receding, and governments worldwide are incompetent, calling for reopenings too soon. If a second wave hits, it will last through the whole year and make this crisis worse than 2008. And Drumpturd may cancel the election and declare himself king, making the election to be held under conditions like in Wisconsin last week when people were not allowed to vote by mail, and approved by his Court. Will the people continue to support our tyrant, or will there be revolution after all, and much violence because of our executive that doesn't act? A new Marseillaise next January? I feel more inclined than ever to call Trump supporters idiots. It is not right or polite, and yet what they are supporting is evil and so I do it. Well, I decided to edit one instance out. Facebook friends, hmmmmmmmmmm
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#37
(04-13-2020, 10:22 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(04-12-2020, 06:53 PM)mmailliw Wrote: I'll be honest:  COVID-19 was the first thing that had me thinking about "4T" style generational theory in a LONG time!  And it's the first moment that really felt like a "crisis" from where I stand.  Before that, things may have appeared to be very ready to come to a head - but for the most part, it was very easy to pretend (if you wanted) that things hadn't really changed.  2020 'feels' too late to start the 4T, but it does feel very clearly "Crisis" mode in a way that 2001-2004 was not!

(And this is the name I posted under the old forums:  I don't plan on being drawn into generational boundary debates again Wink)

I have to agree that COVID-19 is a crisis-level threat, but the lack of a suitable response is the actual crisis.  I'm not sure that another, vastly more competent leader would have changed anything though.  It's just that Trump is so monumentally incompetent and self-delusional, that the response is already going off the rails, and he sees that as a net positive.  November is still a long time in the future, given the pace of things, and the Donald is seriously talking about opening the country for business.  If that happens, Katy bar the door.

The old unraveling values suggested small government, low taxes, as little domestic spending as possible, and disrespecting any science that tried to show a big problem that required a big government existed. Trump is continuing to demonstrate where these old values don’t work for the COVID-19 problem. He thus falls into the Buchanan - Hoover slot. You can’t really expect a federal response worth anything while he is in charge.

Biden? Is he potential grey champion material? Can he drive a major change? Will the economy be in such bad shape that he will abort other issues? Can’t tell yet.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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#38
Coronavirus Cases:
3,027,192

Deaths:
209,132
Recovered:
895,668

Cases which had an outcome:
1,104,800

Recovered / Discharged
895,668 (81%)

Deaths
209,132 (19%)

As of yesterday April 26, midnight GMT:
Country / Total Cases/ +New Cases / Total Deaths / +New Deaths / Total Recovered

World 2,993,262 +73,858 206,915 +3,751 877,411
USA 987,160 +26,509 55,413 +1,157 118,781
Spain 226,629 +2,870 23,190 +288 117,727
Italy 197,675 +2,324 26,644 +260 64,928
France 162,100 +612 22,856 +242 44,903
Germany 157,770 +1,257 5,976 +99 112,000
UK 152,840 +4,463 20,732 +413 N/A
Turkey 110,130 +2,357 2,805 +99 29,140
Iran 90,481 +1,153 5,710 +60 69,657
China 82,827 +11 4,632 0? 77,394
Russia 80,949 +6,361 747 +66 6,767
Brazil 62,859 +3,663 4,271 +226 30,152
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#39
Like I said on another thread, the Dems selected Biden because they want to lose. They still need to figure out if they want the left (The Squad) or the centrists (Harris). Personally I think they will go with AOC as the nominee in 2024.

Trump will easily best Biden and the Dems can then prepare for their second Obama moment.
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#40
(04-28-2020, 08:41 AM)Isoko Wrote: Like I said on another thread, the Dems selected Biden because they want to lose. They still need to figure out if they want the left (The Squad) or the centrists (Harris). Personally I think they will go with AOC as the nominee in 2024.

Trump will easily best Biden and the Dems can then prepare for their second Obama moment.

If Trump wins again, the next President will be in charge of cleaning up the enormous mess. If that's AOC, then she will be the youngest President forever, being then just 2 weeks old enough to run.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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