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Global warming
(08-04-2019, 12:46 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Comment: it is my suspicion that a significant reduction in the Arctic ice sheet will have effects upon climatic patterns in North America. I would expect cold air masses to stay farther north and become less severe. That also means that winter snow packs will be less permanent in the winter, and that more ground moisture will flow off before crops start growing.  

As you notice, as the ice sheet retreats, grasses start growing even at its edges, and those, much darker than the white ice, maintain much more of the solar heating. The Greenland ice sheet is fossil ice not in equilibrium with climatic conditions of the last few thousand years; should it vanish in whole or part, it will not return.

That may not be true.  The polar ice cap was a more stable heat source/sink than the open water that replaced it.  The new model may involve a wobbly northern jet stream, and produce many more outflows of polar cold in the winter, with warmer uptakes elsewhere in the Arctic.  If so, then the eastern US will be subject to more cold spells, and the western US to fewer.  Greenland melting only makes that even worse.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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(08-05-2019, 11:52 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(08-04-2019, 12:46 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Comment: it is my suspicion that a significant reduction in the Greenland ice sheet will have effects upon climatic patterns in North America. I would expect cold air masses to stay farther north and become less severe. That also means that winter snow packs will be less permanent in the winter, and that more ground moisture will flow off before crops start growing.  

As you notice, as the ice sheet retreats, grasses start growing even at its edges, and those, much darker than the white ice, maintain much more of the solar heating. The Greenland ice sheet is fossil ice not in equilibrium with climatic conditions of the last few thousand years; should it vanish in whole or part, it will not return.

That may not be true.  The polar ice cap was a more stable heat source/sink than the open water that replaced it.  The new model may involve a wobbly northern jet stream, and produce many more outflows of polar cold in the winter, with warmer uptakes elsewhere in the Arctic.  If so, then the eastern US will be subject to more cold spells, and the western US to fewer.  Greenland melting only makes that even worse.

A correction has been made. The Arctic has a thin layer of ice, and its permanence is going in doubt. That is a different issue altogether.

I would guess that the disappearance or even major shrinkage of the Greenland Ice Sheet would change the wind patterns  by weakening the now-permanent high pressure dome over Greenland and promote a more westerly flow of air in eastern Canada and the eastern United States, most markedly during the winter. Cold waves from the northwest that the Greenland High shunts into eastern North America would become rarer.

As for an open Arctic Ocean, once the ice buffer disappears, the Arctic Ocean would become much warmer in the summer and give surrounding lands in the Arctic basin decidedly warmer summers... but beyond that I can say little more.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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(10-09-2018, 01:29 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The issue now is whether Trump's supreme court can block all efforts even at the state and local level, as well as his congress being unwilling to act.

Dunno about that.  However, Mr. Market looks like he's gonna do a number on this stupid shale oil/gas stuff.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/05/oil-pr...-meltdown/
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(08-05-2019, 07:22 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:
(10-09-2018, 01:29 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The issue now is whether Trump's supreme court can block all efforts even at the state and local level, as well as his congress being unwilling to act.

Dunno about that.  However, Mr. Market looks like he's gonna do a number on this stupid shale oil/gas stuff.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/05/oil-pr...-meltdown/

To rescue the oil industry, President Trump would need to find ways in which to compel people to consume more petroleum -- like putting heavy taxes on gas-sipping vehicles and electric vehicles, and banning or prohibitively taxing solar and wind power. Note that energy use plummeted worldwide as former 'socialist' countries started treating energy as a valuable resource than as a nearly-free good.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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One state: Michigan

All this week, Michigan Radio's Environment Report will be focusing on climate change and how it's already affecting us in the state of Michigan, and what's expected to change in the future. It's a huge crisis we face now — and that generations to come will face — and it will affect every aspect of our lives, from what we eat, to how we travel, to how we live inside our homes.
[Image: TER-climate-change-vert_0.jpg]
To start, climate change describes what is happening to our planet as certain gasses in the atmosphere block heat from escaping. This is due to an increase in greenhouse gases: primarily carbon dioxide, but also methane and some others. Whenever we produce and burn a fossil fuel like coal, natural gas, gasoline, diesel, and propane, we increase the concentration of greenhouse gasses. Forests naturally capture carbon dioxide, but humans are prone to clearing the world's forests.

Michigan Radio's Tracy Samilton joined Stateside to discuss the big picture for Michigan.
According to Samilton, we had a taste of what's to come in mid-July when we had three to four days of a nearly 100 degree heat index, which is a combination of heat plus humidity that feels incredibly oppressive. And it's dangerous, too.

"Imagine having that happen not just a handful of days a year, but up to 25 days a year," Samilton says. "The Union of Concerned Scientists says if we do nothing to curtail our emissions, that's in [Michigan's] future by mid-century. And 26 to 50 days of those extreme heat waves a year by late-century if we do nothing."

In Michigan, changes in climate are more than just warming temperatures. The state has seen an increase in heavy rain events, which has led to more flooding. Samilton says there's been a 14% increase in precipitation in the Great Lakes region since 1951. She says to expect that to continue and increase further.

"Weather is harder to predict than the temperature increases," Samilton said. "So, it could be back and forth. We could have years of really dry, hot summers in Michigan, with super wet springs. And we could have more lake effect snow in the winters, but as it continues to get warmer, we could have a lot more rain in the winter."
So what can we do? Samilton asked Richard Rood, who teaches climate change problem solving at the University of Michigan, that exact question. He tells his students to start running for local office.

Rood says local and city and state policies — and also regional, multi-state efforts — could really move the needle on energy efficiency, renewable energy, public transportation, and reforestation. And he says these local, state and regional efforts are especially crucial because the Trump administration is rolling back policies that address climate change.

Samilton says Michigan cities should also be working on emergency plans for situations that will be a result of climate change, such as dangerous temperatures and flooding.

The Environmental Law and Policy Center's Margrethe Kearney agrees with Rood about getting involved, particularly if your city doesn't have a climate change plan, or holding local officials responsible if the current plan is not meeting its goals.

"We can force the people who represent us in government and the companies who sell things to us, we can insist that they change the way they are responding to climate change, and that they take much more significant action," Kearney says. "And that, that bigger system change, I think, is where there can be a real impact on carbon emissions."

Michigan Radio and Stateside will be talking about environmental issues and how people are taking action on climate change all week. Follow along with us here.

(Subscribe to Stateside on iTunesGoogle Play, or with this RSS link)
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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My interpretation of how the changes could be. In southern Michigan, the climate of Kalamazoo and battle Creek could go from Dfa (snowy winters and hot, rainy summers) to Dsa (snowy winters but hot, seriously-dry summers as in Salt Lake City) to Cfa (cool, rainy winters and hot, seriously-dry summers as in Sacramento today) due to the proximity of Lake Michigan and the disappearance of summer rainstorms. Detroit might be just rainy enough in the summer to be more like Dallas or Oklahoma City.

A city near the Dfb (snowy winters but simply warm, rainy summers) -Dfa boundary, like Grand Rapids or Flint might go from having warm, rainy summers to having seriously-hot, dry summers before making the transition to having rainy winters and hot, seriously dry summers as the summer storms disappear. The Upper Peninsula and the northern Lower Peninsula might simply start having longer, hotter summers while winters get milder.

Dry summers in a place that gets adequate rainfall in other times of the year can be very productive places for agriculture -- if water is available for irrigation. The Great Lakes are low enough in salt for animals and people to drink, but too salty for irrigation. The rich agriculture of California's Central Valley depends upon water impounded in catchment basins in the Sierra. Michigan does not have high mountains and narrow valleys suitable for reservoirs.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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OKJOKULL GLACIER, Iceland (AP) — It was a funeral for ice.

With poetry, moments of silence and political speeches about the urgent need to fight climate change, Icelandic officials, activists and others bade goodbye to what once was a glacier.

Icelandic geologist Oddur Sigurðsson pronounced the Okjokull glacier extinct about a decade ago. But on Sunday he brought a death certificate to the made-for-media memorial.

After about 100 people made a two-hour hike up a volcano, children installed a memorial plaque to the glacier, now called just “Ok,” minus the Icelandic word for glacier.

The glacier used to stretch six square miles (15 square kilometers), Sigurdsson said. Residents reminisced about drinking pure water thousands of years old from Ok.

“The symbolic death of a glacier is a warning to us, and we need action,” former Irish president Mary Robinson said.

This was Iceland’s first glacier to disappear. But Sigurdsson said all of the nation’s ice masses will be gone in 200 years.

https://apnews.com/94570962770142679993f9d4a8c9a4fa
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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