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Why do S&H start Civic generations so early?
#1
Let's compare

According to S&H's dates:
The oldest Silents (1925) were 21 when their 1T started
The oldest Boomers (1945) were 19 when their 2T started.
The oldest Xers (1961) were 23 when their 3T started.

But the oldest Millennials (1982) were 26 when their 4T started. Same for GIs. The oldest GIs were 28 in 1929. Shouldn't both generation start later? Or does it have something to do with nature of the Civic archetype or the 4T?
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#2
1T started in 1945.
2T started in 1963.
3T started in 1980.
4T started in 2001.
I'm going to guess that 1T will start when the coronavirus is no longer a problem. Maybe 2022.
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#3
(06-06-2020, 03:02 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: But the oldest Millennials (1982) were 26 when their 4T started. Same for GIs. The oldest GIs were 28 in 1929. Shouldn't both generation start later? Or does it have something to do with nature of the Civic archetype or the 4T?

People in their late 30s are definitely more Millenial than X, so I think the latter is closer.  It may also have to do with the nature of the 3T, if those tend to be prolonged.
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#4
(06-06-2020, 09:12 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(06-06-2020, 03:02 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: But the oldest Millennials (1982) were 26 when their 4T started. Same for GIs. The oldest GIs were 28 in 1929. Shouldn't both generation start later? Or does it have something to do with nature of the Civic archetype or the 4T?

People in their late 30s are definitely more Millennial than X, so I think the latter is closer.  It may also have to do with the nature of the 3T, if those tend to be prolonged.

3Ts are prolonged parties, at least for those of us in a position to enjoy them. Since the rich and powerful are fully onboard with party-party-party, and they are in a position to make them continue, the party continues until it can't.  Others are not so lucky, and the 3T is just a grindstone wearing them down.  By definition, that is an unstable system, so crises are a given.  That we have several at once this time is the only thing unusual about this 4T.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#5
If Western Continental Europe is on the same timeline as the US then they appear to be having a very subdued 4T this time around, just like circa 1870. But I'd also be willing to argue that not every society is on the same 80 year cycle. I think Western Continental Europe has 150 year cycles instead. 1789-1945 was a cycle unto itself, just like 1648-1789 was before that. Sure, in the 1870s you had the Franco-Prussian War as well as German and Italian unification, but Europeans don't view that era as a time of great upheaval with "no turning back". Europe had a protracted 4T in its 150 year cycle that lasted from 1914 to 1945. How was WWI not a 4T event for the French, Germans, and Austrians? I agree it wasn't a 4T event for the Americans. WWI changed the map of Europe more than WWII did while the latter changed the balance of power.

And it shouldn't need to be said there are other cyclical theories of history out there. S&H's isn't the only one.
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#6
(06-07-2020, 07:10 AM)Remy Renault Wrote: If Western Continental Europe is on the same timeline as the US then they appear to be having a very subdued 4T this time around, just like circa 1870. But I'd also be willing to argue that not every society is on the same 80 year cycle. I think Western Continental Europe has 150 year cycles instead. 1789-1945 was a cycle unto itself, just like 1648-1789 was before that. Sure, in the 1870s you had the Franco-Prussian War as well as German and Italian unification, but Europeans don't view that era as a time of great upheaval with "no turning back". Europe had a protracted 4T in its 150 year cycle that lasted from 1914 to 1945. How was WWI not a 4T event for the French, Germans, and Austrians? I agree it wasn't a 4T event for the Americans. WWI changed the map of Europe more than WWII did while the latter changed the balance of power.

And it shouldn't need to be said there are other cyclical theories of history out there. S&H's isn't the only one.

I am not too sure, because S&H made generations that date back to the European Renaissance.

The odd thing is that even though S&H talk about 80-90 year cycles and 20-22 year generations, the average length of their generations (from the European Renaissance until today) is like 23 years.
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#7
(06-07-2020, 09:15 AM)Ghost Wrote:
(06-07-2020, 07:10 AM)Remy Renault Wrote: If Western Continental Europe is on the same timeline as the US then they appear to be having a very subdued 4T this time around, just like circa 1870. But I'd also be willing to argue that not every society is on the same 80 year cycle. I think Western Continental Europe has 150 year cycles instead. 1789-1945 was a cycle unto itself, just like 1648-1789 was before that. Sure, in the 1870s you had the Franco-Prussian War as well as German and Italian unification, but Europeans don't view that era as a time of great upheaval with "no turning back". Europe had a protracted 4T in its 150 year cycle that lasted from 1914 to 1945. How was WWI not a 4T event for the French, Germans, and Austrians? I agree it wasn't a 4T event for the Americans. WWI changed the map of Europe more than WWII did while the latter changed the balance of power.

And it shouldn't need to be said there are other cyclical theories of history out there. S&H's isn't the only one.

I am not too sure, because S&H made generations that date back to the European Renaissance.

The odd thing is that even though S&H talk about 80-90 year cycles and 20-22 year generations, the average length of a generation (from the European Renaissance until today) is like 23 years.

This was discussed ad infinitum on the old forum by just about every poster there at the time.  The result was just more controversy.  No reason emerged that even a thin majority could support.  If anything, the structure of the Agricultural Age was sufficiently different that this occurred then but not now. What that difference might have been was 90% of the discussion.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#8
(06-07-2020, 09:36 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(06-07-2020, 09:15 AM)Ghost Wrote:
(06-07-2020, 07:10 AM)Remy Renault Wrote: If Western Continental Europe is on the same timeline as the US then they appear to be having a very subdued 4T this time around, just like circa 1870. But I'd also be willing to argue that not every society is on the same 80 year cycle. I think Western Continental Europe has 150 year cycles instead. 1789-1945 was a cycle unto itself, just like 1648-1789 was before that. Sure, in the 1870s you had the Franco-Prussian War as well as German and Italian unification, but Europeans don't view that era as a time of great upheaval with "no turning back". Europe had a protracted 4T in its 150 year cycle that lasted from 1914 to 1945. How was WWI not a 4T event for the French, Germans, and Austrians? I agree it wasn't a 4T event for the Americans. WWI changed the map of Europe more than WWII did while the latter changed the balance of power.

And it shouldn't need to be said there are other cyclical theories of history out there. S&H's isn't the only one.

I am not too sure, because S&H made generations that date back to the European Renaissance.

The odd thing is that even though S&H talk about 80-90 year cycles and 20-22 year generations, the average length of a generation (from the European Renaissance until today) is like 23 years.

This was discussed ad infinitum on the old forum by just about every poster there at the time.  The result was just more controversy.  No reason emerged that even a thin majority could support.  If anything, the structure of the Agricultural Age was sufficiently different that this occurred then but not now. What that difference might have been was 90% of the discussion.

Sorry about that.
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#9
(06-07-2020, 09:39 AM)Ghost Wrote:
(06-07-2020, 09:36 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(06-07-2020, 09:15 AM)Ghost Wrote:
(06-07-2020, 07:10 AM)Remy Renault Wrote: If Western Continental Europe is on the same timeline as the US then they appear to be having a very subdued 4T this time around, just like circa 1870. But I'd also be willing to argue that not every society is on the same 80 year cycle. I think Western Continental Europe has 150 year cycles instead. 1789-1945 was a cycle unto itself, just like 1648-1789 was before that. Sure, in the 1870s you had the Franco-Prussian War as well as German and Italian unification, but Europeans don't view that era as a time of great upheaval with "no turning back". Europe had a protracted 4T in its 150 year cycle that lasted from 1914 to 1945. How was WWI not a 4T event for the French, Germans, and Austrians? I agree it wasn't a 4T event for the Americans. WWI changed the map of Europe more than WWII did while the latter changed the balance of power.

And it shouldn't need to be said there are other cyclical theories of history out there. S&H's isn't the only one.

I am not too sure, because S&H made generations that date back to the European Renaissance.

The odd thing is that even though S&H talk about 80-90 year cycles and 20-22 year generations, the average length of a generation (from the European Renaissance until today) is like 23 years.

This was discussed ad infinitum on the old forum by just about every poster there at the time.  The result was just more controversy.  No reason emerged that even a thin majority could support.  If anything, the structure of the Agricultural Age was sufficiently different that this occurred then but not now. What that difference might have been was 90% of the discussion.

Sorry about that.

Nothing to be sorry about. It's a legitimate topic, as I noted.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#10
(06-07-2020, 06:46 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(06-06-2020, 09:12 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(06-06-2020, 03:02 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: But the oldest Millennials (1982) were 26 when their 4T started. Same for GIs. The oldest GIs were 28 in 1929. Shouldn't both generation start later? Or does it have something to do with nature of the Civic archetype or the 4T?

People in their late 30s are definitely more Millennial than X, so I think the latter is closer.  It may also have to do with the nature of the 3T, if those tend to be prolonged.

3Ts are prolonged parties, at least for those of us in a position to enjoy them. Since the rich and powerful are fully onboard with party-party-party, and they are in a position to make them continue, the party continues until it can't.  Others are not so lucky, and the 3T is just a grindstone wearing them down.  By definition, that is an unstable system, so crises are a given.  That we have several at once this time is the only thing unusual about this 4T.

Think it's time to, as a classic early Willie Nelson song says, "Turn Out the Lights, The Party's Over."?  But wasn't that also said back when the AIDS scare killed off the sexual revolution?
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#11
(06-06-2020, 03:02 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: Let's compare

According to S&H's dates:
The oldest Silents (1925) were 21 when their 1T started
The oldest Boomers (1945) were 19 when their 2T started.
The oldest Xers (1961) were 23 when their 3T started.

But the oldest Millennials (1982) were 26 when their 4T started. Same for GIs. The oldest GIs were 28 in 1929. Shouldn't both generation start later? Or does it have something to do with nature of the Civic archetype or the 4T?

I think all, or at least most, of the generational dates and turning dates need to be taken with a grain of salt. It's all really fluid.

According to S&H:

The Silent Gen is 1925-1942
-Biden and Bernie are clearly Grey Champions. This only really works if all of these dates are off by five years or so. 

The Boomers are 1943-1960
-People turning 60 today don't seem like core Boomers at all. Those folks would have turned 22, graduating college, in 1982, and are supposed to be Boomers? 

The Xers are 1961-1981
-I don't see how 76-81 is Xer. That group never had the same milestones as Xers and has much more in common with Millenials

The Millenials are 1982-2004 
-1982 feels late to me, and 20014 is definitely not Millenial

The Zoomers are from 2005
-1998 or thereabouts IMO
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#12
(06-06-2020, 03:02 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: Let's compare

According to S&H's dates:
The oldest Silents (1925) were 21 when their 1T started
The oldest Boomers (1945) were 19 when their 2T started.
The oldest Xers (1961) were 23 when their 3T started.

But the oldest Millennials (1982) were 26 when their 4T started. Same for GIs. The oldest GIs were 28 in 1929. Shouldn't both generation start later? Or does it have something to do with nature of the Civic archetype or the 4T?

Astrology!

That's not why S&H do it, but what they say aligns with Neptune, the planet of the double saeculum.

When it enters a cardinal sign, within a year or two a dominant generation starts.

1821 Neptune entered Capricorn (Gilded, 1822)
1861 Neptune entered Aries (Missionaries, 1860)
1901 Neptune entered Cancer (GIs, 1901)
1943 Neptune entered Libra (Boomers, 1943)
1984 Neptune entered Capricorn (Millennials, 1984)
(maybe if the Millennials started early according to S&H, they started later according to the planetary clock)
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#13
(06-07-2020, 06:46 AM)David Horn Wrote: 3Ts are prolonged parties, at least for those of us in a position to enjoy them. Since the rich and powerful are fully onboard with party-party-party, and they are in a position to make them continue, the party continues until it can't.  Others are not so lucky, and the 3T is just a grindstone wearing them down.  By definition, that is an unstable system, so crises are a given.  That we have several at once this time is the only thing unusual about this 4T.

I think this is the best explanation Smile
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#14
Biden presidency might be a transitional period between saecula for the US. In Europe, there is a lot to be played out:
-Britain's position after full Brexit
-France's future after Macron (Melenchon vs Le Pen)
-Germany's future after Merkel
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#15
(06-08-2020, 08:53 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: Biden presidency might be a transitional period between saecula for the US. In Europe, there is a lot to be played out:
-Britain's position after full Brexit
-France's future after Macron (Melenchon vs Le Pen)
-Germany's future after Merkel

You only missed Spain and Italy on your litany of European troubles.  Europe is a multi-culture, trying to remain one while coming together.  At the moment, it's an exercise in futility.  I suspect that the EU, as it is today, will evolve dramatically before anything cohesive emerges there.  This may be an issue for the next 2T/4T.  

Short term:" you'll be enjoying the same level of chaos there as we Americans are enjoying here.  Big Grin
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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