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I think you should see this:
http://www.booksontape.com/book/252382/t...rican-era/
Quote:The master geopolitical forecaster and New York Times bestselling author of The Next 100 Years focuses on the United States, predicting how the 2020s will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture.
In his riveting new book, noted forecaster and bestselling author George Friedman turns to the future of the United States. Examining the clear cycles through which the United States has developed, upheaved, matured, and solidified, Friedman breaks down the coming years and decades in thrilling detail.
American history must be viewed in cycles—particularly, an eighty-year "institutional cycle" that has defined us (there are three such examples—the Revolutionary War/founding, the Civil War, and World War II), and a fifty-year "socio-economic cycle" that has seen the formation of the industrial classes, baby boomers, and the middle classes. These two major cycles are both converging on the late 2020s—a time in which many of these foundations will change. The United States will have to endure upheaval and possible conflict, but also, ultimately, increased strength, stability, and power in the world.
Friedman's analysis is detailed and fascinating, and covers issues such as the size and scope of the federal government, the future of marriage and the social contract, shifts in corporate structures, and new cultural trends that will react to longer life expectancies. This new book is both provocative and entertaining.
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Fifty-year cycle? I don't see it. 80-year of course = the saeculum, more or less.
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"Fifty-year cycle? I don't see it. 80-year of course = the saeculum, more or less."
Well, one could take the period from 1932-1980 as a more "socialist" economic era characterized by the rise of unions and the period from 1980-202x as the capitalist era characterized by the rise of mega corporations; the former is more Hamiltonian and the latter more Jeffersonian (though updated for the industrial age). Friedman, to me, has always been more interested in the socio-economic cycle compared to his friend Mauldin who is very interested in the Fourth Turning. Perhaps his new book is going to merge these two. (The book is slated to come out only on Oct. 24th 2017 according to Amazon which is an eternity from now.)
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02-03-2017, 06:11 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2017, 06:11 PM by Eric the Green.)
I don't think Reaganomics is going to last much longer than 2022. So, no 50-year cycle there. I don't see any continuity in the period 1880-1930 either. But, if that's what he predicts; Reaganomics until 2030 or longer, we'll see.
(of course the whole 500-year cycle of civilization interferes with that one too; which is why the progressive era extended into the 3T).
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I have Friedmans book "The next 100 years".At this time I thought his prediction were ridiculos, but today we have a cold war with, Poland and Turkey going nationalistic, Japan remilitarize, so I think I must him take seriously.
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(02-05-2017, 01:51 PM)freivolk Wrote: I have Friedmans book "The next 100 years".At this time I thought his prediction were ridiculos, but today we have a cold war with, Poland and Turkey going nationalistic, Japan remilitarize, so I think I must him take seriously.
Friedman's books are always interesting, though they should be taken with a grain of salt. The whole Stratfor website he founded is a daily read for me, although i think he is no longer directly affiliated with it.
