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http://www.businessinsider.com/book-stev...?r=UK&IR=T
Quote: President Trump's adviser, Steve Bannon, is on the cover of this week's Time magazine, and in the piece it is revealed that Bannon deeply believes in a theory about America's future laid out in a book called "The Fourth Turning: What Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny."
This fact should concern every American.
In the book, authors William Strauss and Neil Howe theorize that the history of a people moves in 80-to-100 year cycles called "saecula." The idea goes back to the ancient Greeks, who believed that at a given saeculum's end, there would come "ekpyrosis," a cataclysmic event that destroys the old order and brings in a new one in a trial of fire....
http://www.businessinsider.com/book-stev...?r=UK&IR=T
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(02-03-2017, 08:46 AM)Dan Wrote: http://www.businessinsider.com/book-stev...?r=UK&IR=T
Quote: President Trump's adviser, Steve Bannon, is on the cover of this week's Time magazine, and in the piece it is revealed that Bannon deeply believes in a theory about America's future laid out in a book called "The Fourth Turning: What Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny."
This fact should concern every American.
In the book, authors William Strauss and Neil Howe theorize that the history of a people moves in 80-to-100 year cycles called "saecula." The idea goes back to the ancient Greeks, who believed that at a given saeculum's end, there would come "ekpyrosis," a cataclysmic event that destroys the old order and brings in a new one in a trial of fire....
http://www.businessinsider.com/book-stev...?r=UK&IR=T
Anyone can read into Howe and Strauss whatever they want. Yes, there can be a literal trial by fire -- even the Holocaust. But a 4T can also topple the idols that stand upon clay feet...
My interpretation is that the 4T forces a harsh simplification of a culture and political reality that have used complexity to enforce the will of corrupt elites who serve only themselves and compel others to suffer for those elites. I see Donald Trump as an exaggeration of corrupt elites out for themselves alone. Such elites are particularly vulnerable in a 4T as they enforce sacrifices among the masses and give nothing in return except survival in peonage.
History does not work to the benefit, or even survival, of corrupt elites who hold that their power can crush resistance to their selfishness and amorality. I see Donald Trump as someone who can cause the breakdown of the economic prosperity and political safety that we have thought 'natural' since the late 1940s. (There have been some reforms and of course technological progress, but those have well served the Establishment as well as the People, but that has more enforced the perception than challenged it).
Whatever Donald Trump has in common with such 4T leaders as Samuel Adams, Benjamin Franklin, Abraham Lincoln, Benito Juarez, Karl Mannerheim, FDR, or Sir Winston Churchill except for being part of an Idealist generation completely escapes me.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(02-03-2017, 08:46 AM)Dan Wrote: http://www.businessinsider.com/book-stev...?r=UK&IR=T
Quote: President Trump's adviser, Steve Bannon, is on the cover of this week's Time magazine, and in the piece it is revealed that Bannon deeply believes in a theory about America's future laid out in a book called "The Fourth Turning: What Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny."
This fact should concern every American.
In the book, authors William Strauss and Neil Howe theorize that the history of a people moves in 80-to-100 year cycles called "saecula." The idea goes back to the ancient Greeks, who believed that at a given saeculum's end, there would come "ekpyrosis," a cataclysmic event that destroys the old order and brings in a new one in a trial of fire....
http://www.businessinsider.com/book-stev...?r=UK&IR=T
Yikes! I wonder if he ever posted on the old forums or ever trolls this one!
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That would be interesting.
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It is interesting that Bannon is a T4T fan. Does that really mean much? People here have entirely different views about where the 4T will or should lead us. T4T fans are a motley crue.
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(02-03-2017, 01:56 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Bannon may subscribe to what I consider a highly flawed TFT interpretation. Namely, that The Crash of '08 did not start the 4T and that up until now we've been stuck in the 3T.
I know there are many even here who are frustrated that after the Crash of '08 we didn't see enough perp walks or enough "New Deal" types of reforms. My own view is, such expectations were naive. We had lots of "infrastructure" in 2008 which did not exist or was not even possible in 1929. We cannot have reasonably expected an FDR / New Deal response this time around. What we got from Obama was a modern version and it had many good features, from the stand point of providing care and feeding of the economy to avoid a protracted Depression. I digress.
Not only does Bannon seem to subscribe to a flawed "we will start the 4T" view, he also seems to believe that there can be a sort of Alt-Right version of the general unity we experienced with the Big Government Dems and faction of Reps during the past Regeneracy and 1T. It's not going to happen. There is way too much diversity (both in terms of demographics and politics) at the national level for that to happen. If there is to be unity it needs to be centered around something besides the Loony Alt Right.
*sigh*
From the article:
Quote:Perhaps not, but putting a Fourth Turning lens on Trump's policies certainly give them a great deal of context. Bannon believes that the catalyst for the Fourth Turning has already happened: the financial crisis.
So now we are in the regeneracy. Howe and Strauss describe this period as one of isolationism, one of infrastructure building and of strong, centralized government power, and a reimagination of the economy.
Of course it's important not to lose sight of the end here. Bannon believes in authoritarian politics as preparation for a massive conflict between East and West, whether East means the Middle East or China.
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Oh dear. S&H had somewhat socially conservative biases and those are obviously reinforcing Bannon's own beliefs.
#MakeTheDemocratsGreatAgain
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02-03-2017, 02:16 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2017, 02:17 PM by Eric the Green.)
Bannon is right then; the catalyst happened in 2008 and we are in the regeneracy as of the 2016 election. And since we are a divided country, the regeneracy consists of the two sides gearing up for battle. The only question is whether the side of truth and justice has the mettle to join the fight.
Caving into Gorsuch would mean, no, it doesn't at all.
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(02-03-2017, 02:15 PM)Odin Wrote: Oh dear. S&H had somewhat socially conservative biases and those are obviously reinforcing Bannon's own beliefs.
It's interesting, because the somewhat more puritanical strains of the left were/are making a good faith effort to "cleanse the culture" according to their own preferences. 2016 was a major missed opportunity for them.
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(02-03-2017, 11:58 AM)The Wonkette Wrote: (02-03-2017, 08:46 AM)Dan Wrote: http://www.businessinsider.com/book-stev...?r=UK&IR=T
Quote: President Trump's adviser, Steve Bannon, is on the cover of this week's Time magazine, and in the piece it is revealed that Bannon deeply believes in a theory about America's future laid out in a book called "The Fourth Turning: What Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny."
This fact should concern every American.
In the book, authors William Strauss and Neil Howe theorize that the history of a people moves in 80-to-100 year cycles called "saecula." The idea goes back to the ancient Greeks, who believed that at a given saeculum's end, there would come "ekpyrosis," a cataclysmic event that destroys the old order and brings in a new one in a trial of fire....
http://www.businessinsider.com/book-stev...?r=UK&IR=T
Yikes! I wonder if he ever posted on the old forums or ever trolls this one!
He managed to pull David Kaiser into his film. That didn't come from nowhere.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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(02-03-2017, 02:08 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: (02-03-2017, 01:56 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Bannon may subscribe to what I consider a highly flawed TFT interpretation. Namely, that The Crash of '08 did not start the 4T and that up until now we've been stuck in the 3T.
I know there are many even here who are frustrated that after the Crash of '08 we didn't see enough perp walks or enough "New Deal" types of reforms. My own view is, such expectations were naive. We had lots of "infrastructure" in 2008 which did not exist or was not even possible in 1929. We cannot have reasonably expected an FDR / New Deal response this time around. What we got from Obama was a modern version and it had many good features, from the stand point of providing care and feeding of the economy to avoid a protracted Depression. I digress.
Not only does Bannon seem to subscribe to a flawed "we will start the 4T" view, he also seems to believe that there can be a sort of Alt-Right version of the general unity we experienced with the Big Government Dems and faction of Reps during the past Regeneracy and 1T. It's not going to happen. There is way too much diversity (both in terms of demographics and politics) at the national level for that to happen. If there is to be unity it needs to be centered around something besides the Loony Alt Right.
*sigh*
From the article:
Quote:Perhaps not, but putting a Fourth Turning lens on Trump's policies certainly give them a great deal of context. Bannon believes that the catalyst for the Fourth Turning has already happened: the financial crisis.
So now we are in the regeneracy. Howe and Strauss describe this period as one of isolationism, one of infrastructure building and of strong, centralized government power, and a reimagination of the economy.
Of course it's important not to lose sight of the end here. Bannon believes in authoritarian politics as preparation for a massive conflict between East and West, whether East means the Middle East or China.
He's also been quoted as beleaving an even more catastrophic event will occur, and lead to his predicted end result. War is part of it, but not the goal. I don't think Bannon expects much continuing outside the Western Hemisphere.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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(02-03-2017, 04:49 PM)David Horn Wrote: (02-03-2017, 02:08 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: (02-03-2017, 01:56 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Bannon may subscribe to what I consider a highly flawed TFT interpretation. Namely, that The Crash of '08 did not start the 4T and that up until now we've been stuck in the 3T.
I know there are many even here who are frustrated that after the Crash of '08 we didn't see enough perp walks or enough "New Deal" types of reforms. My own view is, such expectations were naive. We had lots of "infrastructure" in 2008 which did not exist or was not even possible in 1929. We cannot have reasonably expected an FDR / New Deal response this time around. What we got from Obama was a modern version and it had many good features, from the stand point of providing care and feeding of the economy to avoid a protracted Depression. I digress.
Not only does Bannon seem to subscribe to a flawed "we will start the 4T" view, he also seems to believe that there can be a sort of Alt-Right version of the general unity we experienced with the Big Government Dems and faction of Reps during the past Regeneracy and 1T. It's not going to happen. There is way too much diversity (both in terms of demographics and politics) at the national level for that to happen. If there is to be unity it needs to be centered around something besides the Loony Alt Right.
*sigh*
From the article:
Quote:Perhaps not, but putting a Fourth Turning lens on Trump's policies certainly give them a great deal of context. Bannon believes that the catalyst for the Fourth Turning has already happened: the financial crisis.
So now we are in the regeneracy. Howe and Strauss describe this period as one of isolationism, one of infrastructure building and of strong, centralized government power, and a reimagination of the economy.
Of course it's important not to lose sight of the end here. Bannon believes in authoritarian politics as preparation for a massive conflict between East and West, whether East means the Middle East or China.
He's also been quoted as beleaving an even more catastrophic event will occur, and lead to his predicted end result. War is part of it, but not the goal. I don't think Bannon expects much continuing outside the Western Hemisphere.
Take the mittens off, Dave!
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This is really creepy. I know l've bitched @ ppl for comparing our current situation to Hitler & the 3rd Reich, & l'm gonna apologize right now for saying this, but the only comparison that comes to my head is Goebbles using Nostradamus for his own sordid purposes & frankly, l think that's what Bannon is doing with S&H 
 my 2 yr old Niece/yr old Nephew 2020
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No, still seems like a reach. Sorry, Mary.
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(02-03-2017, 09:25 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: No, still seems like a reach. Sorry, Mary.
-- l hope you're right.
my 2 yr old Niece/yr old Nephew 2020
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I'll let you in on a few other sorts of people that are also huge enthusiastic fans of the Theory.
Let me preface this with I have insomnia and wander all over the internet into some really oddball places in pursuit of something interesting to read at 1 am when my pain levels are high.
The White nationalists are also fans.
The African American equivalent of the White Nationalists are also fans. Their credo's are damn near word for word, ideology in reverse of the things the WN's spout.
Conspiracy theorists of the sort from fairly normal all the way to aliens are landing tomorrow variety, are fans.
When I say I hit some weird, dark spots on the web, I mean it. History searches for a particular era I really love will yield some bizarre spots. Places I will not post at, but will pop in and read things there. Because for all of the hate at some of them, there are some fairly well educated people at them, even if they are attempting to twist some history into something resembling a spiral staircase to back up their nut job ideologies. But the links to books and journals has been interesting.
Lots of people are fans of the Theory.
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(02-04-2017, 11:06 AM)Danilynn Wrote: I'll let you in on a few other sorts of people that are also huge enthusiastic fans of the Theory.
Let me preface this with I have insomnia and wander all over the internet into some really oddball places in pursuit of something interesting to read at 1 am when my pain levels are high.
The White nationalists are also fans.
The African American equivalent of the White Nationalists are also fans. Their credo's are damn near word for word, ideology in reverse of the things the WN's spout.
Conspiracy theorists of the sort from fairly normal all the way to aliens are landing tomorrow variety, are fans.
When I say I hit some weird, dark spots on the web, I mean it. History searches for a particular era I really love will yield some bizarre spots. Places I will not post at, but will pop in and read things there. Because for all of the hate at some of them, there are some fairly well educated people at them, even if they are attempting to twist some history into something resembling a spiral staircase to back up their nut job ideologies. But the links to books and journals has been interesting.
Lots of people are fans of the Theory.
Yes, I see what you are saying however Bannon is in the White House, those other people are not.
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(02-04-2017, 11:06 AM)Danilynn Wrote: I'll let you in on a few other sorts of people that are also huge enthusiastic fans of the Theory.
Let me preface this with I have insomnia and wander all over the internet into some really oddball places in pursuit of something interesting to read at 1 am when my pain levels are high.
The White nationalists are also fans.
The African American equivalent of the White Nationalists are also fans. Their credo's are damn near word for word, ideology in reverse of the things the WN's spout.
Conspiracy theorists of the sort from fairly normal all the way to aliens are landing tomorrow variety, are fans.
When I say I hit some weird, dark spots on the web, I mean it. History searches for a particular era I really love will yield some bizarre spots. Places I will not post at, but will pop in and read things there. Because for all of the hate at some of them, there are some fairly well educated people at them, even if they are attempting to twist some history into something resembling a spiral staircase to back up their nut job ideologies. But the links to books and journals has been interesting.
Lots of people are fans of the Theory.
My sympathy on the pain.
....Anyone can read anything into the theory whatever one wishes. White nationalists might dream of bringing back White Power to the extent that they can restore slavery as their predecessors practiced it and get to force Jews to breathe in cyanide fumes as their hero (Oh, excuse me -- these folks often believe that the Holocaust never happened, but it would be a wonderful idea). I am not sure of what black nationalists could do to white people... a rape fantasy? Just think of all the ensuing abortions.
Race war would be the definitive Crisis. So would a Communist takeover. So would World War III or any war involving the USA and any superpower or near-superpower. An Independence Day scenario? Likewise. Are these realistic? Probably not.
Truth be told, the 4T never goes by design. People bungle or blunder their way into it. One contributing factor in the current Crisis, the Crisis of 1940 (Great Depression and World War II) was the speculative booms that devoured capital only to implode when the capital inflows ended. The implosion of the boom exposes that the bubble consumed capital that not only has been rendered worthless but could also have been used more prudently to create genuine wealth, as in public infrastructure and business plant and equipment. Opportunities for work and investment suddenly vanish together... and the neglect that society made hits practically everyone. The politicians in power, smug with easy success before the boom implodes, are caught clueless; they suddenly have no solutions. If a society is lucky the politician who promises change is FDR or Barack Obama. If a society is not so lucky it gets some demagogue better at finding scapegoats than solutions.
We now have the closest thing to a dictator that we have ever had -- indeed, someone who admires such monsters as the Kim dynasts in North Korea, Saddam Hussein, and Moammar Qaddafi. He once praised the Chinese government for being 'tough' on the protesters at Tienanmen square.
Of course I expect an arch-conservative in American politics to not endorse a liberal in the recent past. But at least Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher have precious little blood on their hands. But those are not the ideological models that Donald Trump has in mind.
Bad as I see Donald Trump going, I can imagine the Joint Chiefs of Staff doing to him what the Chilean equivalent did to Salvador Allende. Now that would be a Crisis!
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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