Is Trump embracing aggressive withdrawal?

[Tim Randal Walker]

Back ground for the Cold War.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feU7HT0x_qU

[Tim Randal Walker]

Summarizing some key points that Zeihan has made:


1. The USA is no longer motivated by the Cold War. But the old free trade regime and military alliances were crafted for this.

2. The USA is losing interest in vast swathes of the world.

3. USA is becoming energy independent, so no longer need concern itself with Middle East oil.

4. Two areas that might interest the USA in terms of trade are Southeast Asia and Latin America.

5 . USA will take greater interest in its "backyard"-Mexico, Central America, Caribbean, and Colombia. Supply chains will extend farther south into Central America.

6. The USA will lose interest in keeping the sea lanes open for all.

7. The USA will lose interest in protecting many of the countries that it was allied with during the Cold War.

8. The free trade regime was a bribe to lure countries into the anti-Soviet alliance.

9. The U.S. economy is one of the least dependent on the rest of the world. And much of its trade has been within nafta.

[Tim Randal Walker]

As I understand it, China's allure depended on having a large pool of cheap labor.

Zeihan mentioned that, because of rising wages, Mexican labor is now both cheaper and more skilled than Chinese labor.

[Eric the Green]

(05-08-2019, 01:56 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Summarizing some key points that Zeihan has made:


1.  The USA is no longer motivated by the Cold War.  But the old free trade regime and military alliances were crafted for this.

2.  The USA  is losing  interest in vast swathes of the world.  

3.  USA is becoming energy independent, so no longer need concern itself with Middle East oil.

4.  Two areas that might interest the USA in terms of trade are Southeast Asia and Latin America.

5 .  USA will take greater interest in its "backyard"-Mexico, Central America, Caribbean, and Colombia.  Supply chains will extend farther south into Central America.

6.  The USA will lose interest in keeping the sea lanes open for all.

7.  The USA will lose interest in protecting many of the countries that it was allied with during the Cold War.

8.  The free trade regime was a bribe to lure countries into the anti-Soviet alliance.

9.  The U.S. economy is one of the least dependent on the rest of the world.  And much of its trade has been within nafta.

Many of these points will not apply once the USA is returned to sane administration. I'm assuming that it will be, but it's a crap shoot in 2020. Unless this happens, though, I think the USA has surrendered its identity, and any claim to be a first world nation or a member of the free world. Other nations will assume those roles, and the USA will soon fade away and break up. What can anyone think of a nation that has allowed a blatant, greedy con man and scam artist to be its chief executive?

[Tim Randal Walker]

I can see Japan becoming an offshore balancer in relation to China. In which case, the USA might become the offshore balancer of last resort in relation to China.

A Japanese sphere of influence in the Western Pacific might become a buffer between the United States and China.