Generational Constellation Math For The Current And Next Turning

[galaxy]

Arrival at Unraveling constellation:
Oldest GIs reached 80: 1981
Youngest GIs reached 60: 1984
Oldest Silents reached 60: 1985
Youngest Silents reached 40: 1982
Oldest Boomers reached 40: 1983
Youngest Boomers reached 20: 1980
Oldest Xs reached 20: 1981
Youngest Xs born: 1981 (or maybe 1980/1979? there are some 1980/1-borns who seem very Millennial to me).


Arrival at Crisis constellation:

Oldest Silents reached 80: 2005
Youngest Silents reached 60: 2002
Oldest Boomers reached 60: 2003
Youngest Boomers reached 40: 2000
Oldest Xs reached 40: 2001
Youngest Xs reached 20: 2001
Oldest Millennials reached 20: 2002
Youngest Millennials born: 2002, probably

Arrival at High constellation:

Oldest Boomers reach 80: 2023
Youngest Boomers reach 60: 2020
Oldest Xs reach 60: 2021
Youngest Xs reach 40: 2021
Oldest Millennials reach 40: 2022
Youngest Millennials reach 20: 2022
Youngest Homelanders born: 2020, possibly? Unless we have something like a major war or other conflict, the first post-Homelanders will probably be the first who do not remember the pandemic and associated economic and political crises (including those that followed it. A person who remembers 2022 will likely be a Homelander even if the virus itself is mostly no longer an issue by the end of next year).


Basically, long story short, pretty much everything points to 2026-2027 as the earliest likely 1T start date, making this a roughly 18-year turning. This fits with what seems to be a bit of a historical pattern of 4Ts being a little shorter than the others.

Another interesting thing to notice is those dates in the early 2000s decade. It looks like 9/11 just barely avoided starting the 4T, and would have done so if it had happened just a year or two later. I guess that's another hint of an explanation for the "2001-2008 3.5T" phenomenon. It also implies that we could have a "stepwise exit" to this turning, similar to the entrance, if a sufficiently intense event occurs in the next 2-3 years. Some kind of 4.5/0.5T for a lot of the 2020s.


So here's the question then, what should we look for in a likely spark? I imagine if no "bolt from the blue" type event occurs in 2026 or 2027, then the 2028 election could serve as the division (as 1984, 1908, and 1860 did), but a much more interesting discussion is what kind of shock could occur to start a new turning.

[Eric the Green]

I can almost guarantee that 2026-2027 will be the peak of the Crisis. The best we can hope for then is that, amidst the continuing turmoil, probably both domestic and foreign, is that a consensus is building underneath it as the better side wins.

Victory by the blue side will start a successful first turning in circa 2028-29. That will not be a "shock," any more than adopting the Constitution was, or adopting the 13th and 14th amendment was, or founding the UN was. But when we see a similar kind of foundation for a more-inclusive, more-generous, more lawful and ethical society and world being laid down, we will know we have entered a first turning.

If the red side wins, then we will have become a nation like the enemies we fought in these other saecula. Will that be a first turning? I doubt it would deserve that title. The USA was there to rescue Dixie in 1865 and Japan and Germany in 1945, and so some kind of first turning could begin at least in Germany and Europe in 1945 thanks to the UN and the Marshall Plan. Maybe the nearest analogy of what a failed/red victory 4T and the next next saeculum would look like for the USA is Dixie after Reconstruction in 1877 up until the 1960s. But even there, the winning side in the civil war came back then to make Dixie a part of America again, even if that was still not enough of a victory to possibly avoid yet another breakaway or victory by the wrong side this time.

[David Horn]

(10-25-2021, 04:07 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I can almost guarantee that 2026-2027 will be the peak of the Crisis. The best we can hope for then is that, amidst the continuing turmoil, probably both domestic and foreign, is that a consensus is building underneath it as the better side wins.

The problem here is the Boomer generation. We are almost evenly split leftish (not all being really left of center, but not right of center either) and right -- more far right than not. That's a hard model for generating concensus.

Eric Wrote:Victory by the blue side will start a successful first turning in circa 2028-29. That will not be a "shock," any more than adopting the Constitution was, or adopting the 13th and 14th amendment was, or founding the UN was. But when we see a similar kind of foundation for a more-inclusive, more-generous, more lawful and ethical society and world being laid down, we will know we have entered a first turning.

For that to happen, there has to be some consistency to the Blue position, and that simply doesn't exist today. It's even hard to imagine in the near term -- 5 years or so. The death of the Fairness Doctrine under Reagan made outright lying fully credible for those interested in winning at all costs, and the right has take that to new extremes, at least here in the US. Worse, the Left is fragmeneted into social and political camps that aren't fully aligned. It's hard to be strong externally if you're weak internally.

Eric Wrote:If the red side wins, then we will have become a nation like the enemies we fought in these other saecula. Will that be a first turning? I doubt it would deserve that title. The USA was there to rescue Dixie in 1865 and Japan and Germany in 1945, and so some kind of first turning could begin at least in Germany and Europe in 1945 thanks to the UN and the Marshall Plan. Maybe the nearest analogy of what a failed/red victory 4T and the next next saeculum would look like for the USA is Dixie after Reconstruction in 1877 up until the 1960s. But even there, the winning side in the civil war came back then to make Dixie a part of America again, even if that was still not enough of a victory to possibly avoid yet another breakaway or victory by the wrong side this time.

In the ACW, the North won the war but the South won the peace -- and for many of the same reasons the left is having trouble getting traction today. For all their talk about individual freedom, folks on the right are completely intolerant of viewpoints other than the default viewpoint de jure -- and they enforce those positions using fear and hate. It's hard to beat that with moral purity and sunshine. A bad outcome is highly likely, but fear-based unanimity does have one weakness: it's brittle. If it cracks at all, it will shatter.

[pbrower2a]

(10-25-2021, 01:46 AM)galaxy Wrote: Arrival at Unraveling constellation:
Oldest GIs reached 80: 1981
Youngest GIs reached 60: 1984
Oldest Silents reached 60: 1985
Youngest Silents reached 40: 1982
Oldest Boomers reached 40: 1983
Youngest Boomers reached 20: 1980
Oldest Xs reached 20: 1981
Youngest Xs born: 1981 (or maybe 1980/1979? there are some 1980/1-borns who seem very Millennial to me).


Arrival at Crisis constellation:

Oldest Silents reached 80: 2005
Youngest Silents reached 60: 2002
Oldest Boomers reached 60: 2003
Youngest Boomers reached 40: 2000
Oldest Xs reached 40: 2001
Youngest Xs reached 20: 2001
Oldest Millennials reached 20: 2002
Youngest Millennials born: 2002, probably

Arrival at High constellation:

Oldest Boomers reach 80: 2023
Youngest Boomers reach 60: 2020
Oldest Xs reach 60: 2021
Youngest Xs reach 40: 2021
Oldest Millennials reach 40: 2022
Youngest Millennials reach 20: 2022
Youngest Homelanders born: 2020, possibly? Unless we have something like a major war or other conflict, the first post-Homelanders will probably be the first who do not remember the pandemic and associated economic and political crises (including those that followed it. A person who remembers 2022 will likely be a Homelander even if the virus itself is mostly no longer an issue by the end of next year).


Basically, long story short, pretty much everything points to 2026-2027 as the earliest likely 1T start date, making this a roughly 18-year turning. This fits with what seems to be a bit of a historical pattern of 4Ts being a little shorter than the others.

Another interesting thing to notice is those dates in the early 2000s decade. It looks like 9/11 just barely avoided starting the 4T, and would have done so if it had happened just a year or two later. I guess that's another hint of an explanation for the "2001-2008 3.5T" phenomenon. It also implies that we could have a "stepwise exit" to this turning, similar to the entrance, if a sufficiently intense event occurs in the next 2-3 years. Some kind of 4.5/0.5T for a lot of the 2020s.


So here's the question then, what should we look for in a likely spark? I imagine if no "bolt from the blue" type event occurs in 2026 or 2027, then the 2028 election could serve as the division (as 1984, 1908, and 1860 did), but a much more interesting discussion is what kind of shock could occur to start a new turning.

Do COVID-19, the Capitol Putsch and the implosion of the Chinese housing market  look like sparks? There's plenty of dry tinder and there are plenty of oily rags lying around. All three are bolts from the blue. Nobody saw January 6 coming.  Most people that an authoritarian regime in China could command the economy to mitigate an exercise in capitalism at its worst. Mass death from respiratory infections, many of us thought, just did not happen in advanced industrial societies anymore.

I'd love to see the Hard Right implode from COVID-19 (which it botched horrifically) and the Capitol Putsch. 700,000 deaths and counting from a respiratory infection will leave much of America questioning its core beliefs. Well, some found answers to COVID-19 and are doing fine. Some others got catastrophically-wrong answers and are left dead or grieving.

The cycles suggests that we are overdue for a great transformation in public values. The Hard Right has nothing to offer to the rest of America except fear, poverty, and disgrace.

There are now for once people who remember Pearl Harbor Day, 9/11, and the Capitol Putsch. That won't last long, as we are nearly eighty years away from Pearl Harbor Day.

Things can go fast. From Pearl Harbor Day to V-J day was less than four years. Losing sides tend to disintegrate fast. Just think of the demonic Third Reich and the remnant of Mussolini's puppet regime in early 1945 (both ran out of troops), or the Confederacy as it ran out of troops at the Battle of Petersburg. The Japanese in the summer of 1945 were on the brink of a complete economic collapse because the American submarine blockade ensured that the Japanese forces outside Japan could not get munitions from Japan and the foodstuffs looted from the Japanese empire could not reach the Japanese mainland to feed the Japanese making the munitions. It is obvious after the fact, but never before.

COVID-19 kills like a war, and we can easily see which side of the political spectrum is losing.

[pbrower2a]

[quote pid='79409' dateline='1635164176']
David Horn
[quote pid='79403' dateline='1635152840']
Eric the GreenI can almost guarantee that 2026-2027 will be the peak of the Crisis. The best we can hope for then is that, amidst the continuing turmoil, probably both domestic and foreign, is that a consensus is building underneath it as the better side wins.
[/quote]

The problem here is the Boomer generation.  We are almost evenly split leftish (not all being really left of center, but not right of center either) and right -- more far right than not.  That's a hard model for generating concensus.
[/quote]

The split is largely regional, between the more cosmopolitan areas of America (other than perhaps southern Florida. ]Just look at the new thread that I created on the media manipulation of the Cuban-American community in South Florida. The grandparents (largely Boomer now) experience propaganda from the Right just as virulent and refractory as media in Cuba. The best way to deal with a bogeyman is only rarely to imitate the destructive and dehumanizing aspects of the bogeyman. The cult of personality around Donald Trump may not be a duplication of that around Fidel Castro, but it has dangerous parallels.

Quote:

Eric Wrote:Victory by the blue side will start a successful first turning in circa 2028-29. That will not be a "shock," any more than adopting the Constitution was, or adopting the 13th and 14th amendment was, or founding the UN was. But when we see a similar kind of foundation for a more-inclusive, more-generous, more lawful and ethical society and world being laid down, we will know we have entered a first turning.

For that to happen, there has to be some consistency to the Blue position, and that simply doesn't exist today.  It's even hard to imagine in the near term -- 5 years or so.  The death of the Fairness Doctrine under Reagan made outright lying fully credible for those interested in winning at all costs, and the right has take that to new extremes, at least here in the US.  Worse, the Left is fragmeneted into social and political camps that aren't fully aligned.  It's hard to be strong externally if you're weak internally.

[/quote]

What can become consistent from the Other Side is failure... failure at educational achievement, failure in the response to COVID-19, and failure to win support from others for the political agenda. OK, Cuban-Americans in South Florida. Maybe promising a large number of people that they can return to a Cuba that they have never known except as some paradise for their ancestors in which those ancestors lived like aristocrats. Well, there are just too many wannabe aristocrats in South Florida to make such work. Too many aristocrats extracting everything possible out of a peasantry is one way to make a Castro-style insurgency possible.

Eric Wrote:If the red side wins, then we will have become a nation like the enemies we fought in these other saecula. Will that be a first turning? I doubt it would deserve that title. The USA was there to rescue Dixie in 1865 and Japan and Germany in 1945, and so some kind of first turning could begin at least in Germany and Europe in 1945 thanks to the UN and the Marshall Plan. Maybe the nearest analogy of what a failed/red victory 4T and the next next saeculum would look like for the USA is Dixie after Reconstruction in 1877 up until the 1960s. But even there, the winning side in the civil war came back then to make Dixie a part of America again, even if that was still not enough of a victory to possibly avoid yet another breakaway or victory by the wrong side this time.

In the ACW, the North won the war but the South won the peace -- and for many of the same reasons the left is having trouble getting traction today.  For all their talk about individual freedom, folks on the right are completely intolerant of viewpoints other than the default viewpoint de jure -- and they enforce those positions using fear and hate.  It's hard to beat that with moral purity and sunshine.  A bad outcome is highly likely, but fear-based unanimity does have one weakness: it's brittle.  If it cracks at all, it will shatter.[/quote]


In the last Crisis, the Americans and British made sure that the Germans lost the war and could not define what "the Peace" was. The Nazis would be excoriated for their monstrous crimes, and the social order would be changed so that much that made Nazism possible would be gone forever. As an example, Nazi flags, slogans, symbols, and songs are gone. Germany became more focused on the welfare of the working class that created the wealth; even the conservative figures recognized that in the absence of the Jews, the industrial workers of Germany (whom the Nazis treated badly in contrast to everyone else) would get a fair break. Germany would be open to international trade that would crack the power of the robber-barons who imposed poverty on the proletariat and promoted wars for profit as in 1914 and 1939. The Army of the German Federal Republic would adopt a style of the US Army (paradoxically the Soviets tolerated a Nationalevolksarmee in the East to imitate Prussian style, perhaps to mollify Germans with conservative attitudes).

Hermann Goering said while awaiting execution as a major war criminal that in fifty years that Germany would be full of statues to Nazis. Such is not happening, and it won't. The official position is that the figures of the July 20 plot are the heroes and that the Nazis were by then damned villains. (By the way -- anyone involved in the Capitol Putsch of January 6 who tries to make a comparison to the attempt to overthrow Hitler is terribly wrong. The July 20 plotters wanted to re-establish German democracy, and the January 6 plotters sought to destroy democracy in America).

Raise your arm in a Nazi-style "erection" (the fascist salute-- the KKK does the same with the left arm) or display Nazi symbols in Germany and you will go to prison. The American alt-right has adopted much from the Nazis and the KKK (and the two are remarkably similar in ideology). Considering the violence that the alt-right has done, it must die.

[beechnut79]

(10-25-2021, 11:43 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [quote pid='79409' dateline='1635164176']
David Horn
[quote pid='79403' dateline='1635152840']
Eric the GreenI can almost guarantee that 2026-2027 will be the peak of the Crisis. The best we can hope for then is that, amidst the continuing turmoil, probably both domestic and foreign, is that a consensus is building underneath it as the better side wins.

The problem here is the Boomer generation.  We are almost evenly split leftish (not all being really left of center, but not right of center either) and right -- more far right than not.  That's a hard model for generating concensus.
[/quote]

The split is largely regional, between the more cosmopolitan areas of America (other than perhaps southern Florida. ]Just look at the new thread that I created on the media manipulation of the Cuban-American community in South Florida. The grandparents (largely Boomer now) experience propaganda from the Right just as virulent and refractory as media in Cuba. The best way to deal with a bogeyman is only rarely to imitate the destructive and dehumanizing aspects of the bogeyman. The cult of personality around Donald Trump may not be a duplication of that around Fidel Castro, but it has dangerous parallels.

Quote:

Eric Wrote:Victory by the blue side will start a successful first turning in circa 2028-29. That will not be a "shock," any more than adopting the Constitution was, or adopting the 13th and 14th amendment was, or founding the UN was. But when we see a similar kind of foundation for a more-inclusive, more-generous, more lawful and ethical society and world being laid down, we will know we have entered a first turning.

For that to happen, there has to be some consistency to the Blue position, and that simply doesn't exist today.  It's even hard to imagine in the near term -- 5 years or so.  The death of the Fairness Doctrine under Reagan made outright lying fully credible for those interested in winning at all costs, and the right has take that to new extremes, at least here in the US.  Worse, the Left is fragmeneted into social and political camps that aren't fully aligned.  It's hard to be strong externally if you're weak internally.

[/quote]

What can become consistent from the Other Side is failure... failure at educational achievement, failure in the response to COVID-19, and failure to win support from others for the political agenda. OK, Cuban-Americans in South Florida. Maybe promising a large number of people that they can return to a Cuba that they have never known except as some paradise for their ancestors in which those ancestors lived like aristocrats. Well, there are just too many wannabe aristocrats in South Florida to make such work. Too many aristocrats extracting everything possible out of a peasantry is one way to make a Castro-style insurgency possible.

Eric Wrote:If the red side wins, then we will have become a nation like the enemies we fought in these other saecula. Will that be a first turning? I doubt it would deserve that title. The USA was there to rescue Dixie in 1865 and Japan and Germany in 1945, and so some kind of first turning could begin at least in Germany and Europe in 1945 thanks to the UN and the Marshall Plan. Maybe the nearest analogy of what a failed/red victory 4T and the next next saeculum would look like for the USA is Dixie after Reconstruction in 1877 up until the 1960s. But even there, the winning side in the civil war came back then to make Dixie a part of America again, even if that was still not enough of a victory to possibly avoid yet another breakaway or victory by the wrong side this time.

In the ACW, the North won the war but the South won the peace -- and for many of the same reasons the left is having trouble getting traction today.  For all their talk about individual freedom, folks on the right are completely intolerant of viewpoints other than the default viewpoint de jure -- and they enforce those positions using fear and hate.  It's hard to beat that with moral purity and sunshine.  A bad outcome is highly likely, but fear-based unanimity does have one weakness: it's brittle.  If it cracks at all, it will shatter.[/quote]


In the last Crisis, the Americans and British made sure that the Germans lost the war and could not define what "the Peace" was. The Nazis would be excoriated for their monstrous crimes, and the social order would be changed so that much that made Nazism possible would be gone forever. As an example, Nazi flags, slogans, symbols, and songs are gone. Germany became more focused on the welfare of the working class that created the wealth; even the conservative figures recognized that in the absence of the Jews, the industrial workers of Germany (whom the Nazis treated badly in contrast to everyone else) would get a fair break. Germany would be open to international trade that would crack the power of the robber-barons who imposed poverty on the proletariat and promoted wars for profit as in 1914 and 1939. The Army of the German Federal Republic would adopt a style of the US Army (paradoxically the Soviets tolerated a Nationalevolksarmee in the East to imitate Prussian style, perhaps to mollify Germans with conservative attitudes).

Hermann Goering said while awaiting execution as a major war criminal that in fifty years that Germany would be full of statues to Nazis. Such is not happening, and it won't. The official position is that the figures of the July 20 plot are the heroes and that the Nazis were by then damned villains. (By the way -- anyone involved in the Capitol Putsch of January 6 who tries to make a comparison to the attempt to overthrow Hitler is terribly wrong. The July 20 plotters wanted to re-establish German democracy, and the January 6 plotters sought to destroy democracy in America).  

Raise your arm in a Nazi-style "erection" (the fascist salute-- the KKK does the same with the left arm) or display Nazi symbols in Germany and you will go to prison. The American alt-right has adopted much from the Nazis and the KKK (and the two are remarkably similar in ideology). Considering the violence that the alt-right has done, it must die.
[/quote]


Biden did score a somewhat watered down victory when the infrastructure bill that just got past. Isn't the 4T supposed to be a great time to research any new idea or project that the PTB are eager to get off the ground? Or is that more of a 1T thing? 

And didn't COVID, on the positive side of the ledger, create an opportunity for many to just take a rest from the busyness of life? To enable one to connect with a spiritual side, read some philosophy, or just do you (whatever that looks like). Getting the message that you're allowed.

[pbrower2a]

We have a democracy. Our legislators are responsible to constituents (nominally, at least; in some cases those pols seem more responsible to their financial backers even if those are from out of their state or district), and they are reasonably expected to disagree with each other and with the President. A 51-49 split can decide everything, and in as polarized a society as ours, it does.

All political victories are watered down in a democracy in which an Other Side has relevance. The other side can obstruct, but it must make individual compromises if it is to get anything. I look forward to another 1T in which politicians look to legislation more to get something for their constituents more than to confirm some ideology.

[nguyenivy]

I don't understand viewing the Turning changes based on elections. What if the next 3 straight Presidentials are all Democratic finishes & we have no other major event besides COVID-19 the rest of the decade? Would that imply the 1T actually started in late 2020? What if the Great Resignation & switchover to remote work or just people unwilling to accept a specific job based on the pay is itself the ushering in of the 1T? There is a lot of anger circulating around Millennial & Zoomer gens online about the super-rich billionaire class as well as about housing prices & just comparison of quality of life at same age vs prior times. I don't see this anger ending any time soon. It may turn into despair once the realisation kicks in that time is running out for us Millennials (& X) at least when it comes to our own QOL. Many articles abound about the Millennial generation not having as good quality of life compared to their parents' generation. Is that the whole point of the 'Hero' archetype? Our archetype will end up taking a hit for the saeculum to advance onwards? Then we end up with a boring decade in the 2030s like the 1950s (lot of high-tech, clean, orderly, & safe yes but a monotonous 'square' life). Maybe we'll actually want that by then. I wonder how a 2T will feel to us Millennials.

[pbrower2a]

(11-09-2021, 12:27 AM)nguyenivy Wrote: I don't understand viewing the Turning changes based on elections. What if the next 3 straight Presidentials are all Democratic finishes & we have no other major event besides COVID-19 the rest of the decade? Would that imply the 1T actually started in late 2020? What if the Great Resignation & switchover to remote work or just people unwilling to accept a specific job based on the pay is itself the ushering in of the 1T? There is a lot of anger circulating around Millennial & Zoomer gens online about the super-rich billionaire class as well as about housing prices & just comparison of quality of life at same age vs prior times. I don't see this anger ending any time soon. It may turn into despair once the realisation kicks in that time is running out for us Millennials (& X) at least when it comes to our own QOL. Many articles abound about the Millennial generation not having as good quality of life compared to their parents' generation. Is that the whole point of the 'Hero' archetype? Our archetype will end up taking a hit for the saeculum to advance onwards? Then we end up with a boring decade in the 2030s like the 1950s (lot of high-tech, clean, orderly, & safe yes but a monotonous 'square' life). Maybe we'll actually want that by then. I wonder how a 2T will feel to us Millennials.

Crisis eras do not end because someone so wishes. This time we are at war with a truly-nasty enemy that unlike even Hitler has no semblance of human form or thought. This war ends in a veritable extinction of a virus. 

I predict cultural change as the result of COVID-19, including colorful images and doggerel relating to it. In place of the Dance of Death relating to medieval plagues including the Black Death we will have something resembling this:

Ring around the rosies,
Pocket full of posies, 
Ah-choo! Ah-choo!
All fall down!

modified to fit COVID-19.

It is unfortunate that "expire-us" makes no grammatical sense, because it would rhyme with "virus". "Lose your breath/lead to death!" does.

We are going to have significant changes in the way in which we do many things. I suggest celebrations like Guy Fawkes Day for January 6.