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The Great Devaluation
#41
(03-31-2017, 11:16 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Probably the best civics lesson I have ever found -- brief, simple, profound, universal, and somewhat cynical.





It applies as much to Lenin and Pinochet, to Tito and Trump, and to Lincoln and Satan Hussein alike.

Excellent. No-one escapes politics!
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#42
(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09.

I'd rather bet the opposite.
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#43
(02-06-2019, 12:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:
(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09.

I'd rather bet the opposite.

The next recession will be bad for being a long time coming.  There are many individuals who have never experienced one as a responsible adult -- enough to trigger a secondary reaction that could be more compelling than the facts might suggest.  The Tech Crash was a lot like that in 1999-2000.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#44
(02-06-2019, 12:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:
(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09.

I'd rather bet the opposite.

Considering how high debt levels were in 2017 and they have only gotten higher then it is likely that a recession now will be much worse than 2008.  When Eric the Obtuse predicts some you can pretty much bet the opposite will happen.
Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. -- H.L. Mencken

If one rejects laissez faire on account of man's fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action.   -- Ludwig von Mises
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#45
en
[quote pid='41311' dateline='1549533947']
(02-06-2019, 12:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:
(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09.

I'd rather bet the opposite.

Considering how high debt levels were in 2017 and they have only gotten higher then it is likely that a recession now will be much worse than 2008.  When Eric .... predicts some you can pretty much bet the opposite will happen.
[/quote]

Government will probably have to eat huge amounts of private and public debt. We are discovering how expensive it is to 'stick it' to people who happen to be on the wrong side of a political divide and make sweetheart deals with profiteers.

So far the Great Devaluation seems to be with employee compensation due to wages failing to keep pace with productivity.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#46
(02-07-2019, 05:05 AM)Galen the Quack Wrote:
(02-06-2019, 12:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:
(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09.

I'd rather bet the opposite.

Considering how high debt levels were in 2017 and they have only gotten higher then it is likely that a recession now will be much worse than 2008.  When Eric .... predicts some you can pretty much bet the opposite will happen.

Government will probably have to eat huge amounts of private and public debt. We are discovering how expensive it is to 'stick it' to people who happen to be on the wrong side of a political divide and make sweetheart deals with profiteers

So far the Great Devaluation seems to be with employee compensation due to wages failing to keep pace with productivity.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#47
(02-06-2019, 12:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:
(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09.

I'd rather bet the opposite.

Galen always says what is opposite to the truth. Considering how accurately I predicted the timing and extent of what happened in 2008, here and in my book and lectures for decades, also available on you tube, perhaps I have some credibility when it comes to predicting what will happen.

https://youtu.be/oKmyB1q3H68
https://youtu.be/WAoeW5fXJYU

The Green revolution now coming on, pushed further by the new Green New Deal activism, will break out fully in the 2020s, as society revs up and progress resumes in all fields. Even if there's a civil war or another war abroad, war tends to be good for business. I think the resumption of progress in the 2020s (and the abject defeat of Trump's and Galen's regressive and cynical ideologies and philosophies) will cheer people up and stir the blood and that will bring boom times. There will be a rough transition before the boom starts, starting now, but as I said it won't be as severe as 2008-- which I predicted decades ago would be the worst crash and biggest obstacle to be faced in the 21st century, except for the ongoing challenge of human-caused climate change of course.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#48
(02-07-2019, 08:49 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(02-06-2019, 12:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:
(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09.

I'd rather bet the opposite.

Galen always says what is opposite to the truth. Considering how accurately I predicted the timing and extent of what happened in 2008, here and in my book and lectures for decades, also available on you tube, perhaps I have some credibility when it comes to predicting what will happen.
Quote:Dunno, man. Don't toss the baby out with the bathwater. Whatever one can say about Galen, he seems like a right-libertarian. That means he'd like to shut down the gravy train of corporate welfare to Amazon, Tesla, Big Fossil Fuel, etc. I rather doubt he'd care about allowing imported drugs to compete with Big Pharma.  That's how Galen is different than evil Neoliberals. Neoliberals like regulations that feather their buddies' nest. That's why I support the right kind of deregulation. Any and all regulations that prop up monopolists should be tossed. I'd also toss all laws over victimless crimes. If one wants to do weed,  shrooms, etc.

Team blue needs to clean itself out of morons like:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-0...ng-age-100

Banning ciggies is just plain idiotic. Folks should be able to to whatever the hell they want with their bodies. Hell, I light up one myself every now and again when I'm stressed out.

I think team red has some problems as well. Like what happens when someone gets in a car wreck or something. Folks can't work after those. I think social insurance is a needed thing. I also have no idea how long I'll live. I'd rather pay into SS and have something called a defined benefit.  The private sector chucked those a long time ago.




The Green revolution now coming on, pushed further by the new Green New Deal activism, will break out fully in the 2020s, as society revs up and progress resumes in all fields.

Quote:Yes it will. However if the US keeps blowing money on wars of choice, nada will be left to do anything.


Even if there's a civil war or another war abroad, war tends to be good for business.

Quote:That won't be any different that what's been going on since 2003.  I see no benefits except for the MIC. Meanwhile, the US has become just a banana republic with nukes.  Some folks really need to get out more.


I think the resumption of progress in the 2020s (and the abject defeat of Trump's and Galen's regressive and cynical ideologies and philosophies) will cheer people up and stir the blood and that will bring boom times.

Quote:That will only happen if the Neoliberal/Neocanservative axis of evil is exiled from power.

There will be a rough transition before the boom starts, starting now, but as I said it won't be as severe as 2008-- which I predicted decades ago would be the worst crash and biggest obstacle to be faced in the 21st century, except for the ongoing challenge of human-caused climate change of course.

Where have you been? Do you really believe the MSM?
  Guess what, there's been no recovery from 2008 in the real economy. Full employment?  Nope, just a bunch of shitjobs that pay nothing. That's whats here, that's what's real, that's what's a bummer.

Cf.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_dat...uct-charts


http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_dat...ent-charts

And folks wonder why Trump happened?  Trump is a symptom not the cause of what's going down. I guess I'll see what the next thing the system vomits up.
---Value Added Cool
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#49
(02-07-2019, 08:49 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(02-06-2019, 12:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:
(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09.

I'd rather bet the opposite.

Galen always says what is opposite to the truth. Considering how accurately I predicted the timing and extent of what happened in 2008, here and in my book and lectures for decades, also available on you tube, perhaps I have some credibility when it comes to predicting what will happen.

https://youtu.be/oKmyB1q3H68
https://youtu.be/WAoeW5fXJYU

The Green revolution now coming on, pushed further by the new Green New Deal activism, will break out fully in the 2020s, as society revs up and progress resumes in all fields. Even if there's a civil war or another war abroad, war tends to be good for business. I think the resumption of progress in the 2020s (and the abject defeat of Trump's and Galen's regressive and cynical ideologies and philosophies) will cheer people up and stir the blood and that will bring boom times. There will be a rough transition before the boom starts, starting now, but as I said it won't be as severe as 2008-- which I predicted decades ago would be the worst crash and biggest obstacle to be faced in the 21st century, except for the ongoing challenge of human-caused climate change of course.

Having read an article in Business Week in 2005 detailing the scandal in rating the collateralized debt obligations allegedly backing the real-estate bubble (package enough fecal loans and sell them as fertilizer), I predicted the possibility of an economic meltdown as severe as that beginning in 1929. Pervasive corruption has a tendency to implode, taking innocent people down with it. The meltdown began in 2007 in the securities markets and lasted for a year and a half. Real estate started going into the septic tank a bit earlier, but the President and Congress backed the banks -- this time. For a year and a half the meltdown was as severe as the meltdown beginning in September 1929.

The American economy is as inequitable as it was going into the late 1920s -- and far more corrupt. War? We Americans were lucky in the last Crisis Era. The Nazis never got jet fighters and never put its V-weapons onto its submarines. The Japanese actually had a nuclear program in an early stage, and it would have taken one ship with a manned missile... and it's bye-bye, Los Angeles. I look at the damage that "we" brought upon Iraq -- that can happen here in the event of a war.

I see Donald Trump as even worse than Hoover in the event of an economic meltdown.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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