12-24-2018, 05:25 PM
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The Great Devaluation
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02-06-2019, 12:03 PM
02-06-2019, 01:23 PM
(02-06-2019, 12:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09. The next recession will be bad for being a long time coming. There are many individuals who have never experienced one as a responsible adult -- enough to trigger a secondary reaction that could be more compelling than the facts might suggest. The Tech Crash was a lot like that in 1999-2000.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
02-07-2019, 05:05 AM
(02-06-2019, 12:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09. Considering how high debt levels were in 2017 and they have only gotten higher then it is likely that a recession now will be much worse than 2008. When Eric the Obtuse predicts some you can pretty much bet the opposite will happen.
Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. -- H.L. Mencken
If one rejects laissez faire on account of man's fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action. -- Ludwig von Mises
en
[quote pid='41311' dateline='1549533947'] (02-06-2019, 12:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09. Considering how high debt levels were in 2017 and they have only gotten higher then it is likely that a recession now will be much worse than 2008. When Eric .... predicts some you can pretty much bet the opposite will happen. [/quote] Government will probably have to eat huge amounts of private and public debt. We are discovering how expensive it is to 'stick it' to people who happen to be on the wrong side of a political divide and make sweetheart deals with profiteers. So far the Great Devaluation seems to be with employee compensation due to wages failing to keep pace with productivity.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
02-07-2019, 07:19 PM
(02-07-2019, 05:05 AM)Galen the Quack Wrote:(02-06-2019, 12:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09. Government will probably have to eat huge amounts of private and public debt. We are discovering how expensive it is to 'stick it' to people who happen to be on the wrong side of a political divide and make sweetheart deals with profiteers So far the Great Devaluation seems to be with employee compensation due to wages failing to keep pace with productivity.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
02-07-2019, 08:49 PM
(02-06-2019, 12:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09. Galen always says what is opposite to the truth. Considering how accurately I predicted the timing and extent of what happened in 2008, here and in my book and lectures for decades, also available on you tube, perhaps I have some credibility when it comes to predicting what will happen. https://youtu.be/oKmyB1q3H68 https://youtu.be/WAoeW5fXJYU The Green revolution now coming on, pushed further by the new Green New Deal activism, will break out fully in the 2020s, as society revs up and progress resumes in all fields. Even if there's a civil war or another war abroad, war tends to be good for business. I think the resumption of progress in the 2020s (and the abject defeat of Trump's and Galen's regressive and cynical ideologies and philosophies) will cheer people up and stir the blood and that will bring boom times. There will be a rough transition before the boom starts, starting now, but as I said it won't be as severe as 2008-- which I predicted decades ago would be the worst crash and biggest obstacle to be faced in the 21st century, except for the ongoing challenge of human-caused climate change of course. 
02-07-2019, 10:08 PM
(02-07-2019, 08:49 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-06-2019, 12:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09. Where have you been? Do you really believe the MSM? Guess what, there's been no recovery from 2008 in the real economy. Full employment? Nope, just a bunch of shitjobs that pay nothing. That's whats here, that's what's real, that's what's a bummer. Cf. http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_dat...uct-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_dat...ent-charts And folks wonder why Trump happened? Trump is a symptom not the cause of what's going down. I guess I'll see what the next thing the system vomits up.
---Value Added
02-08-2019, 07:15 AM
(02-07-2019, 08:49 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-06-2019, 12:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:(12-24-2018, 05:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I still say the recession which I think will follow will not be as severe as 2008-09. Having read an article in Business Week in 2005 detailing the scandal in rating the collateralized debt obligations allegedly backing the real-estate bubble (package enough fecal loans and sell them as fertilizer), I predicted the possibility of an economic meltdown as severe as that beginning in 1929. Pervasive corruption has a tendency to implode, taking innocent people down with it. The meltdown began in 2007 in the securities markets and lasted for a year and a half. Real estate started going into the septic tank a bit earlier, but the President and Congress backed the banks -- this time. For a year and a half the meltdown was as severe as the meltdown beginning in September 1929. The American economy is as inequitable as it was going into the late 1920s -- and far more corrupt. War? We Americans were lucky in the last Crisis Era. The Nazis never got jet fighters and never put its V-weapons onto its submarines. The Japanese actually had a nuclear program in an early stage, and it would have taken one ship with a manned missile... and it's bye-bye, Los Angeles. I look at the damage that "we" brought upon Iraq -- that can happen here in the event of a war. I see Donald Trump as even worse than Hoover in the event of an economic meltdown.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
02-27-2020, 09:44 PM
Dow Jones sinks 1,200 points as coronavirus worries deepen
Published 4 hours ago (2/27/2020) NEW YORK - The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank nearly 1,200 points Thursday, deepening a weeklong global market rout caused by worries that the coronavirus outbreak will wreak havoc on the global economy. Bond prices soared again, sending the yield on the 10-year Treasury to another record low. When yields fall it's a sign that investors are feeling less confident about the strength of the economy going forward. "People can demand things that feel safe for irrational amounts of time," said Katy Kaminski, chief research strategist at AlphaSimplex Group. "It doesn't matter, the fundamentals, when people are worried." The latest losses extended a slide in stocks that has wiped out the solid gains the major indexes had posted early this year. The S&P 500 is now 12% below the all-time high it set just a week ago. This is now the stock market's worst week since October 2008, when Wall Street was mired in the financial crisis. Investors came into 2020 feeling confident that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates at low levels and the U.S.-China trade war posed less of a threat to company profits after the two sides reached a preliminary agreement in January. The virus outbreak has upended that rosy scenario as economists lower their expectations for economic growth and companies warn of a hit to their business. The S&P 500 index's sharp decline from its last record high puts it in what market watchers call a "correction," a normal phenomenon that analysts have said was long overdue in this bull market, which is the longest in history. Microsoft warned that the virus outbreak had interrupted its supply lines and would hurt its financial performance, following a similar warning last week from Apple. The two stocks led another sell-off among technology companies. Energy stocks fell sharply as the price of oil dropped 3.4%. "This is a market that's being driven completely by fear," said Elaine Stokes, portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles, with market movements following the classic characteristics of a fear trade: stocks are down, commodities are down and bonds are up. Stokes said the swoon reminded her of the market's reaction following the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. "Eventually we're going to get to a place where this fear, it's something that we get used to living with, the same way we got used to living with the threat of living with terrorism," she said. "But right now, people don't know how or when we're going to get there, and what people do in that situation is to retrench." The S&P 500 fell 137.63 points, or 4.4%, to 2,978.76, its biggest one-day drop since 2011. The Dow fell 1,190.95 points, or 4.4%, to 25,766.64. The Nasdaq dropped 414.29 points, or 4.6%, to 8,566.48. The Russell 2000 index of smaller company stocks lost 54.89 points, or 3.5%, to 1,497.87. The virus has now infected more than 82,000 people globally and is worrying governments with its rapid spread beyond the epicenter of China. Japan will close schools nationwide to help control the spread of the new virus. Saudi Arabia banned foreign pilgrims from entering the kingdom to visit Islam's holiest sites. Italy has become the center of the outbreak in Europe, with the spread threatening the financial and industrial centers of that nation. At their heart, stock prices rise and fall with the profits that companies make. And Wall Street's expectations for profit growth are sliding away. Apple and Microsoft, two of the world's biggest companies, have already said their sales this quarter will feel the economic effects of the virus. Goldman Sachs on Thursday said earnings for companies in the S&P 500 index might not grow at all this year, after predicting earlier that they would grow 5.5%. Strategist David Kostin also cut his growth forecast for earnings next year. Besides a sharply weaker Chinese economy in the first quarter of this year, he sees lower demand for U.S. exporters, disruptions to supply chains and general uncertainty eating away at earnings growth. Such cuts are even more impactful now because stocks are already trading at high levels relative to their earnings, raising the risk. Before the virus worries exploded, investors had been pushing stocks higher on expectations that strong profit growth was set to resume for companies. The S&P 500 was recently trading at its most expensive level, relative to its expected earnings per share, since the dot-com bubble was deflating in 2002, according to FactSet. If profit growth doesn't ramp up this year, that makes a highly priced stock market even more vulnerable. Goldman Sach's Kostin said the S&P 500 could fall to 2,900 in the near term, which would be a nearly 7% drop from Wednesday's close, before rebounding to 3,400 by the end of the year. Traders are growing increasingly certain that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates to protect the economy, and soon. They're pricing in a better than two-in-three probability of a cut at the Fed's next meeting in March. Just a day before, they were calling for only a one-in-three chance. A handful of companies have managed to gain ground in the latest rout of stocks. Medical teleconferencing company Teladoc surged 15.7% and 3M, which counts surgical masks among its many products, rose 0.8%. The market's sharp drop this week partly reflects increasing fears among many economists that the U.S. and global economies could take a bigger hit from the coronavirus than they previously thought. Earlier assumptions that the impact would largely be contained in China and would temporarily disrupt manufacturing supply chains have been overtaken by concerns that as the virus spreads, more people in numerous countries will stay home, either voluntarily or under quarantine. Vacations could be canceled, restaurant meals skipped, and fewer shopping trips taken. "A global recession is likely if COVID-19 becomes a pandemic, and the odds of that are uncomfortably high and rising with infections surging in Italy and Korea," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. The market rout will also likely weaken Americans' confidence in the economy, analysts say, even among those who don't own shares. Such volatility can worry people about their own companies and job security. In addition, Americans that do own stocks feel less wealthy. Both of those trends can combine to discourage consumer spending and slow growth. https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/dow-jon...ies-deepen
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
02-27-2020, 09:57 PM
On 02/25/2020 the 10-year U.S. Treasury minus the 1-year U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted (perhaps briefly), which means that the U.S. Treasury short-term rate was higher than the U.S. Treasury long-term rate. Typically, we define inversions as the spread between the 1-year and the 10-year, or the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year (called the 2-10). An inversion is considered an indication of risk in the bond market, and have preceded recessions in 11 out of 11 of the past recessions, with 2 ‘soft landings’ in the last 70 years.
We had a prior inversion in early 2019, the Fed reacted with rate cuts, possibly averting or delaying a recession. The chart below, from the Fed, illustrates yield-curve inversions (with a red arrow) and the following recession (grey line): ![[Image: 960x0.jpg?fit=scale]](https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5e55e08e7a009800073441bd/960x0.jpg?fit=scale) FRED 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS In the past, the inversions tended to precede recessions by 12-18 months. It might be noted that in most prior inversions, we had a ‘double tap’, where the yield curve inverted two or three times before the recession. See 1997-2001 below and 2005-2008 below: Today In: Money 1997-2001: ![[Image: 960x0.jpg?fit=scale]](https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5e55e0f07a009800073441c0/960x0.jpg?fit=scale) 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 2005-2008: ![[Image: 960x0.jpg?fit=scale]](https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5e55e14d7a009800073441c3/960x0.jpg?fit=scale) 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS https://www.forbes.com/sites/leonlabrecq...62726026e8 (See the link for the graphs).
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
02-27-2020, 10:25 PM
Comments on the last two items:
1. Forbes is far more reliable as a source of economic news than is FoX News. The coronavirus is the pretext; the inverted yield curve signals big trouble, as it has signaled for almost a year. In essence, "short" loans pay better than "long" ones -- and I am guessing that such is so because savings are inadequate to back the debt -- public and private. 2. The sole rationale for some to support Trump has been the economy. Such is his entire claim to desirability as a leader. Trump may have been taking credit for the longest bull market in history, but the politicians have ensured that the people get paid so little that they are deeply in debt and cannot save. Savings do not match debt, and when a sell-off begins, there will be few buyers flush with cash. Booms end when they run out of buyers of the securities and other investments -- as in 2007 -- and 1929, most blatantly. 3. The shakiest entities collapse first, and there will be no cause to back those. Student loans for medical school or law school might still be reasonably low-risk investments, but student loans being paid off perhaps never will crash. Highly-leveraged entities will die as their revenues cannot meet debt service. 4. So far the great devaluation has been of the value of labor. Just look at what has happened in communities that have depended upon manufacturing and mining, mostly in "flyover" country. 5 I may be biased, but Donald Trump is suited even worse than Herbert Hoover or George W. Bush for dealing with an economic meltdown. When it happens, and it has been only a matter of time, he will offer the wrong solutions. Does he seem like the sort of leader to instill courage in people enduring harsh consequences of an economic meltdown? 6. In the wake of an economic meltdown, the most radical reforms serve best. The market indices are coincident indicators, and... if I suddenly got a big inheritance I certainly wouldn't put it into stocks until the market has worked itself out. I have no crystal ball... but I see underlying cause for even more 'retreats;' in the stock market. I'd let the suckers get burned and learn a lesson -- that if you are the last investors in the boom, then the next appropriate investment for you is a long-term, low-yield (but highly-safe) form of saving. Face it -- we are not going to have a real recovery until people start saving again. Saving became unfashionable in the run-ups to economic meltdowns. Such will take a revaluation of work; workers save.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
02-28-2020, 02:22 PM
I'm not surprised to see this thread spring back to life! Oh, my 401K is in so much pain right now!
 At least I'm an Xer who knows how to always have fun. 
Steve Barrera
[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure Saecular Pages
02-28-2020, 06:57 PM
(02-28-2020, 02:22 PM)sbarrera Wrote: I'm not surprised to see this thread spring back to life! Oh, my 401K is in so much pain right now! My sympathy on your 401K. As thrilling as a ride one would have on a kayak headed toward the escarpment -- and where a river meets an escarpment is a waterfall -- I might have been tempted to sell out -- or go to bonds -- as the stock market valuation became absurd. Five bad days in succession for the Dow do not make the start of a recession, but as I have noticed... high stock market prices and high P-E ratios come to a precipitous end (the waterfall) when people run out of funds with which to invest. Then people want to sell, but there are no buyers. The valuation of labor either fell or failed to keep pace with productivity, and economic inequality intensified. Eventually people go into debt to keep up appearances and stay in the game of life -- or give up. What choices do most people have?
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
03-02-2020, 07:58 AM
(02-28-2020, 06:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:(02-28-2020, 02:22 PM)sbarrera Wrote: I'm not surprised to see this thread spring back to life! Oh, my 401K is in so much pain right now! Run for the hillls?  There may also be some option to consolidate and live more frugally, though that won't help the spiral downward in any way, just ease the fall.
Steve Barrera
[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure Saecular Pages
03-02-2020, 09:58 AM
We may be approaching the end of an era, the Reagan-Trump era, in which the only purpose in life for most people is to make someone else already filthy-rich even more filthy-rich in return for survival. It has been a glorious time in which to be a tycoon, landlord (where the economic opportunity is, as such places have increasingly concentrated in a few favored areas), loan-shark, or executive. It was an ethos both intellectually and morally impaired, one that could only hurt the common man. We became a nation of hustlers by necessity, most hustlers failing and a few who had all the advantages to begin with being sure winners. The absurdity of it all culminates in Donald Trump, an exemplar of moral and intellectual failure but a master of self-promotion.
Many of us are good at things other than hustling but not at hustling -- and it will be better that we get rewarded for doing other things again. We need to rediscover the virtues of kindness and community if we are not to live in an enduring nightmare. Being a good person with a solid work ethic and modest expectations in life should be enough to achieve happiness. All in all, happiness depends more upon liking what one gets than upon getting what one wants. As Boomers approach the end of such influence as they have (or perhaps demonstrate too late that they were the wrong people to ignore), it is the Millennial Generation that will shape the political and social norms -- and establish the economic expectations of most people. Civic generations have seen America at its worst while young adults, and I could make the case that they experience even more severe deprivation (unless born into the elites) in early childhood than do Reactive kids. They grow up seeing what does not work for its absurdity and inequity. Take the trend since about 1980 to its logical conclusion and we get The Hunger Games -- or the First Galactic Empire introduced in the prequel Star Wars III. Roman Republic becoming the Empire, Boyar Republic to the Russia of Ivan the Terrible, Mussolini's takeover of Italy, Weimar Republic to Nazi Germany... human kindness, including economic justice, is essential to a decent and workable social order. Any booty that one gets from economic and administrative cruelty is tainted and easily lost.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
03-02-2020, 11:34 PM
The Reagan-Trump era - 1980-2020. A pretty long time.
Steve Barrera
[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure Saecular Pages
03-03-2020, 01:32 AM
(03-02-2020, 11:34 PM)sbarrera Wrote: The Reagan-Trump era - 1980-2020. A pretty long time. But not as long as the New Deal era (1932-1980) in the Skowronek cycle in which the New Deal had largely set the political discourse and the political alignments. It did not so much fail as its constituency died off. The Mountain and Deep South recognized as late as 1976, by voting for Carter in some states that have never since voted for a Democratic nominee for President, that the New Deal had brought a great improvement in personal lives. In any event, the Reagan-Trump era isn't officially over until Trump is no longer President. The Skowronek cycle sees Trump as a failed President unable to stop a political tide. For Carter, the Reagan tide came because of Carter was President at a time when his agenda had worn out. With Trump, his political demise will result from misconduct that others unwisely chose to enable even if it is grossly treacherous, corrupt, despotic, incompetent, and irrational. "There are good people on both sides" applies to divisions of ethnicity, philosophy, region, religion, and social class -- or for that matter rivalries such as between fans of the the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. With something so evil as drug trafficking, arson, neo-Nazis, child molestation, and armed robbery one side is completely evil. I expect Trump to go down to defeat because of his horrid approval ratings (I have never seen approval ratings so bad at this stage for a first-term President seeking re-election) and the intolerance that Americans ordinarily show for corrupt politicians in gubernatorial, Senate, and Congressional elections. I also expect him to take down several Republican Senators with him for their spineless defense of the indefensible deeds of this President.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
03-03-2020, 07:03 AM
If COVID-19 makes it very plain that Trump has business being President, then this year will prove to be the end of the Trump era. Only the really, really diehard Trumpsters will be able to stay loyal to him.
Steve Barrera
[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure Saecular Pages
03-03-2020, 10:46 PM
(03-03-2020, 07:03 AM)sbarrera Wrote: If COVID-19 makes it very plain that Trump has business being President, then this year will prove to be the end of the Trump era. Only the really, really diehard Trumpsters will be able to stay loyal to him. Very quietly, a week of losses and today (after a short-lived rally on Monday) in stock market valuations has given a 9.1% decline in the DJIA. That is roughly two months... and even if such is not an official quarter for the stock market or the American economy, it is 63 days. It was only a matter of time before the longest bull market in American history came to an end. Trump has been taking credit for the Market as Obama didn't. Obama wisely let others draw their own conclusions. I don't know what it will take to convince the die-hard Trump supporters that he is a failure... heck, many Hitler supporters were not convinced that their idol was a disaster until they saw American, British, or Soviet tanks in their towns.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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