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Anti-Kremlin Protests Take Hold Over Major Russian Cities (March 2017)
#1
Thousands of Russians gathered on Sunday to demonstrate against government corruption in what may be the biggest anti-Kremlin protest in years.

Unsanctioned rallies in several cities ― including Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Vladivostok ― sprung up after Alexei Navalny, who plans to run against President Vladimir Putin in the 2018 election, published allegations that Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev had accumulated a massive fortune surpassing his official salary.

The rallies attracted an “[u]nprecedented number of young Russians,” reported Max Seddon, a Moscow correspondent for The Financial Times. They grew to massive numbers in cities where Putin once commanded strong support.

The protests appear to be the largest since 2012, Reuters reported. Authorities arrested hundreds of demonstrators, including Navalny and Guardian reporter Alec Luhn, who was covering the protests.

The U.S. State Department condemned the arrests of protesters.

“We call on the government of Russia to immediately release all peaceful protesters,” department spokesman Mark Toner said Sunday in a statement.

Photos show demonstrators waving signs with rubber ducks, a reference to Navalny’s allegation that Medvedev has a house for one of his ducks, the BBC reported. Others donned green face paint ― a callback to Navalny being attacked with green liquid last week ― and blocked the car transporting him after he was detained in Moscow.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/russ...yiizfr&
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#2
Update, 23 January 2020:





Navalny challenges Putin again.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#3
(01-23-2021, 02:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Update, 23 January 2020:





Navalny challenges Putin again.

I haven't studied modern Russian history enough to make any predictions.  If we take 1917 as part of their Crisis era, then they could be as much as one full turning ahead of the West.  Putin certainly has all the characteristics of a totalitarian High leader.  They could be slipping into their next awakening.
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#4
(01-26-2021, 12:19 PM)mamabug Wrote: I haven't studied modern Russian history enough to make any predictions.  If we take 1917 as part of their Crisis era, then they could be as much as one full turning ahead of the West.  Putin certainly has all the characteristics of a totalitarian High leader.  They could be slipping into their next awakening.

I like PBrower's idea that all countries that experienced WW2 seriously are on the same timeline. Russia experienced WW2 in a way much bloodier than the English-speaking nations. So, if WW2 was not a crisis for them, nothing ever was. Then they had a High in the 1960s, with improving quality of daily life and technological successes. The 1980s were an Awakening with glasnost' and perestroika. The 1990s a really bad Unravelling.

Putin is a Crisis leader. It's an unusual 4T since it seemingly consists mostly of a regeneracy. The revival of national identity and interest in tradition is a very typical 4T bit. Remember that from a Putinist POV, Russia is under siege. Western democracies impose sanctions. Inclusivist NGOs try to impose their alien values. Islamist insurgents try to whittle a piece of land away and recreate their Caucasus Emirate. Russians living in Odessa or Kharkov are treated like foreigners. Aren't these typical Crisis concerns?

I've seen young Russians who support Navalny compared to young Poles who support recent "women's strikes". If we accept that Poland is currently undergoing a 4T, then Russia is too.

BTW, neoreactionaries and national-populists often claim that Russia is undergoing a religious revival. If this were true, we would indeed be talking about a 2T, but it is not. Putin would like it to appear this way, but the state-sponsored revival of Orthodoxy is very superficial. Few Russians go to church regularly. One neoreactionary on another board claimed that Russian Army is fighting "godless Ukrainians" in Donbass, before I showed him that the number of practicing Christians in Ukraine is higher.
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#5
(03-16-2021, 04:07 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 12:19 PM)mamabug Wrote: I haven't studied modern Russian history enough to make any predictions.  If we take 1917 as part of their Crisis era, then they could be as much as one full turning ahead of the West.  Putin certainly has all the characteristics of a totalitarian High leader.  They could be slipping into their next awakening.

I like PBrower's idea that all countries that experienced WW2 seriously are on the same timeline. Russia experienced WW2 in a way much bloodier than the English-speaking nations. So, if WW2 was not a crisis for them, nothing ever was. Then they had a High in the 1960s, with improving quality of daily life and technological successes. The 1980s were an Awakening with glasnost' and perestroika. The 1990s a really bad Unravelling.

Putin is a Crisis leader. It's an unusual 4T since it seemingly consists mostly of a regeneracy. The revival of national identity and interest in tradition is a very typical 4T bit. Remember that from a Putinist POV, Russia is under siege. Western democracies impose sanctions. Inclusivist NGOs try to impose their alien values. Islamist insurgents try to whittle a piece of land away and recreate their Caucasus Emirate. Russians living in Odessa or Kharkov are treated like foreigners. Aren't these typical Crisis concerns?

I've seen young Russians who support Navalny compared to young Poles who support recent "women's strikes". If we accept that Poland is currently undergoing a 4T, then Russia is too.

I could make the case that the birth of the Polish state (Second Polish Republic) in 1918-1919 and especially the Polish-Soviet war of 1920 had many characteristics of a Crisis, with Poland taking on many 1T characteristics... but with serious flaws, as Poland tried to obliterate ethnic differences among ethnic minorities except arguably the Jews. The Belorussians and Ukrainians in part would see the Soviet Union as liberators from Polish oppression, only to often be disgruntled before Operation Barbarossa began, and the large German minority would to a large part betray Poland in the worst possible way as perpetrators of unspeakable brutality on behalf of... 

If anyone wants to know how badly a 4T could go, then look at Poland in the last Crisis Era. Both Hitler and Stalin sought to obliterate Polish nationality with genocide and oppression after wiping the Polish Republic off the map. Hitler saw the Poles suited only for slave labor -- and enslavement under the Nazis made the fictional Simon Legree look charitable and humane by contrast. Hitler treated the Poles much like Leopold II treated the peoples of his Congo "Free" State. Because there was no semblance of any Polish authority aside from local police completely under the Nazi thumb, Poland could be the site of the bulk of the Holocaust, where Jews including the large Polish Jewish community were concentrated in ghettoes on the way to the extermination camps, with Jews from elsewhere in Europe being shipped into murder camps for slaughter.

After World War II, Poland went into a more obvious, and by no means premature 1T -- a Communist version as the Polish Communists established a Marxist version of a repressive, materialistic 1T intended to destroy the Catholic heritage of Poland under the Stalinist quisling Bierut. That obviously went too far. 

It is safe to say that the whole of Europe behind the Iron Curtain to at least the easternmost lines of Nazi conquest in Russia  had obvious parallels of destruction, both material and human. Maybe western Czechoslovakia was spared the material destruction because of the rapid Nazi collapse, but it certainly endured the destruction of its institutions and of course the demographic calamity.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#6
(03-16-2021, 04:41 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(03-16-2021, 04:07 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 12:19 PM)mamabug Wrote: I haven't studied modern Russian history enough to make any predictions.  If we take 1917 as part of their Crisis era, then they could be as much as one full turning ahead of the West.  Putin certainly has all the characteristics of a totalitarian High leader.  They could be slipping into their next awakening.

I like PBrower's idea that all countries that experienced WW2 seriously are on the same timeline. Russia experienced WW2 in a way much bloodier than the English-speaking nations. So, if WW2 was not a crisis for them, nothing ever was. Then they had a High in the 1960s, with improving quality of daily life and technological successes. The 1980s were an Awakening with glasnost' and perestroika. The 1990s a really bad Unravelling.

Putin is a Crisis leader. It's an unusual 4T since it seemingly consists mostly of a regeneracy. The revival of national identity and interest in tradition is a very typical 4T bit. Remember that from a Putinist POV, Russia is under siege. Western democracies impose sanctions. Inclusivist NGOs try to impose their alien values. Islamist insurgents try to whittle a piece of land away and recreate their Caucasus Emirate. Russians living in Odessa or Kharkov are treated like foreigners. Aren't these typical Crisis concerns?

I've seen young Russians who support Navalny compared to young Poles who support recent "women's strikes". If we accept that Poland is currently undergoing a 4T, then Russia is too.

I could make the case that the birth of the Polish state (Second Polish Republic) in 1918-1919 and especially the Polish-Soviet war of 1920 had many characteristics of a Crisis, with Poland taking on many 1T characteristics... but with serious flaws, as Poland tried to obliterate ethnic differences among ethnic minorities except arguably the Jews. The Belorussians and Ukrainians in part would see the Soviet Union as liberators from Polish oppression, only to often be disgruntled before Operation Barbarossa began, and the large German minority would to a large part betray Poland in the worst possible way as perpetrators of unspeakable brutality on behalf of... 

If anyone wants to know how badly a 4T could go, then look at Poland in the last Crisis Era. Both Hitler and Stalin sought to obliterate Polish nationality with genocide and oppression after wiping the Polish Republic off the map. Hitler saw the Poles suited only for slave labor -- and enslavement under the Nazis made the fictional Simon Legree look charitable and humane by contrast. Hitler treated the Poles much like Leopold II treated the peoples of his Congo "Free" State. Because there was no semblance of any Polish authority aside from local police completely under the Nazi thumb, Poland could be the site of the bulk of the Holocaust, where Jews including the large Polish Jewish community were concentrated in ghettoes on the way to the extermination camps, with Jews from elsewhere in Europe being shipped into murder camps for slaughter.

After World War II, Poland went into a more obvious, and by no means premature 1T -- a Communist version as the Polish Communists established a Marxist version of a repressive, materialistic 1T intended to destroy the Catholic heritage of Poland under the Stalinist quisling Bierut. That obviously went too far. 

It is safe to say that the whole of Europe behind the Iron Curtain to at least the easternmost lines of Nazi conquest in Russia  had obvious parallels of destruction, both material and human. Maybe western Czechoslovakia was spared the material destruction because of the rapid Nazi collapse, but it certainly endured the destruction of its institutions and of course the demographic calamity.

For Eastern Europe, the 4T was 1917 to 45 or even 1953. 36 years in one turning! And I thought the last 3T was long...
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#7
(03-16-2021, 04:49 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:
(03-16-2021, 04:41 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(03-16-2021, 04:07 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:
(01-26-2021, 12:19 PM)mamabug Wrote: I haven't studied modern Russian history enough to make any predictions.  If we take 1917 as part of their Crisis era, then they could be as much as one full turning ahead of the West.  Putin certainly has all the characteristics of a totalitarian High leader.  They could be slipping into their next awakening.

I like PBrower's idea that all countries that experienced WW2 seriously are on the same timeline. Russia experienced WW2 in a way much bloodier than the English-speaking nations. So, if WW2 was not a crisis for them, nothing ever was. Then they had a High in the 1960s, with improving quality of daily life and technological successes. The 1980s were an Awakening with glasnost' and perestroika. The 1990s a really bad Unravelling.

Putin is a Crisis leader. It's an unusual 4T since it seemingly consists mostly of a regeneracy. The revival of national identity and interest in tradition is a very typical 4T bit. Remember that from a Putinist POV, Russia is under siege. Western democracies impose sanctions. Inclusivist NGOs try to impose their alien values. Islamist insurgents try to whittle a piece of land away and recreate their Caucasus Emirate. Russians living in Odessa or Kharkov are treated like foreigners. Aren't these typical Crisis concerns?

I've seen young Russians who support Navalny compared to young Poles who support recent "women's strikes". If we accept that Poland is currently undergoing a 4T, then Russia is too.

I could make the case that the birth of the Polish state (Second Polish Republic) in 1918-1919 and especially the Polish-Soviet war of 1920 had many characteristics of a Crisis, with Poland taking on many 1T characteristics... but with serious flaws, as Poland tried to obliterate ethnic differences among ethnic minorities except arguably the Jews. The Belorussians and Ukrainians in part would see the Soviet Union as liberators from Polish oppression, only to often be disgruntled before Operation Barbarossa began, and the large German minority would to a large part betray Poland in the worst possible way as perpetrators of unspeakable brutality on behalf of... 

If anyone wants to know how badly a 4T could go, then look at Poland in the last Crisis Era. Both Hitler and Stalin sought to obliterate Polish nationality with genocide and oppression after wiping the Polish Republic off the map. Hitler saw the Poles suited only for slave labor -- and enslavement under the Nazis made the fictional Simon Legree look charitable and humane by contrast. Hitler treated the Poles much like Leopold II treated the peoples of his Congo "Free" State. Because there was no semblance of any Polish authority aside from local police completely under the Nazi thumb, Poland could be the site of the bulk of the Holocaust, where Jews including the large Polish Jewish community were concentrated in ghettoes on the way to the extermination camps, with Jews from elsewhere in Europe being shipped into murder camps for slaughter.

After World War II, Poland went into a more obvious, and by no means premature 1T -- a Communist version as the Polish Communists established a Marxist version of a repressive, materialistic 1T intended to destroy the Catholic heritage of Poland under the Stalinist quisling Bierut. That obviously went too far. 

It is safe to say that the whole of Europe behind the Iron Curtain to at least the easternmost lines of Nazi conquest in Russia  had obvious parallels of destruction, both material and human. Maybe western Czechoslovakia was spared the material destruction because of the rapid Nazi collapse, but it certainly endured the destruction of its institutions and of course the demographic calamity.

For Eastern Europe, the 4T was 1917 to 45 or even 1953. 36 years in one turning! And I thought the last 3T was long...

The period 1920-1933 was a very troubled time for most of eastern Europe. Except in Czechoslovakia and arguably Romania to an extent, political instability was the norm. Then came Hitler in Germany.

Here's how I saw the 4T in Russia and the Soviet Union:

1916-1917: military, economic, and political collapse of the Tsarist regime
1917: February revolution overthrowing the Tsar, the Kornilov plot in July, and the Bolshevik coup. 
1918: Lenin stops the Constituent Assembly from taking part in politics and establishes a full-blown dictatorship
1918-1922 Russian Civil War (with a Soviet effort to crush Poland and with its sponsorship of the commie regime of Bela Kun in Hungary). 
1922-1924: abortive 1T with NEP.
1924-1929: power struggle that begins in earnest with the death of Lenin and ends in the consolidation of Stalin as the Big Boss 
1930-1934: forced collectivization turns peasants into serfs and causes famine.
1935-1938: Great Purges. Definitely 4T behavior. 
1939-1941: illusory 1T as Stalin gets a shaky peace through complicity with Hitler.
1941-1945: Operation Barbarossa (as Hitler saw it); the Great Patriotic War as seen in Russia. Unspeakable horror of a war in which the opposing sides treated their soldiers as cannon fodder... and horrific genocide, including the Holocaust (which started with massacres in Nazi-occupied sections of the occupied Soviet Union.

After 1945 the Soviet Union could only go 1T.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#8
This is a great summary. Russia's 4T lasting 28 years was exactly as long as last Anglo 3T (1980-2008).

Another remarkable feature: in the 1910s Russia went from a 2T directly into 4T.
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#9
(03-16-2021, 06:20 AM)Captain Genet Wrote: This is a great summary. Russia's 4T lasting 28 years was exactly as long as last Anglo 3T (1980-2008).

Another remarkable feature: in the 1910s Russia went from a 2T directly into 4T.

A 3T is a time for sorting out ideas and testing them on an individual level. Regrettably many of the trials, at least by those who choose intellectual ease over intellectual depth, are of behaviors that have never worked out well. 

Enterprise is ordinarily an honorable course of human activity, and it is necessary for prosperity. The more polished sort of enterprise rejects behaviors that simply do not work, like pyramid schemes. A basic rule of business is to not hurt one's customer, which explains why we have prohibitions on the selling of heroin or on selling liquor to minors. It is tempting, though, for businesses to seek shortcuts that get greater quick profits while leaving huge problems for others to sort out. Super-low wages can attract people who can make investments of their lives in alleged growth businesses, but many of those growth businesses go under. Solid savings might keep people from being destitute in old age, but if people are overworked and underpaid throughout their lives they will be broken in old age.  

Cranks get even more mass attention than academics with solid educational credentials... and superstitions and quack medicine flourish. Because anything goes intellectually, such garbage as racism gets more support than in other times. Politics debases itself to accommodate fads and panics. People sacrifice equity for greed and at least in America that leads to speculative booms more adept at devouring capital than putting capital to solid use as investments in plant and equipment. 

I will not go so far as to say that Russia went from 2T to 4T. The Crimean War was the closest thing to a Crisis for Russia in the middle-to-late 19th century, and that comes before such events as the Sepoy Rebellion in India (Britain's closest thing to a Crisis, the American Civil War, the overthrow of the Mexican Empire, Canadian Independence, the Franco-Prussian War, unification of Germany and the French Commune, the Taiping Revolution in China, and the Meiji Restoration in Japan. Russia was later into the generational cycle than any other major country of the time. Even with that caveat, Russia probably did go into a 3T -- but if it had plenty of crazy ideas to work out as societies usually do in a 3T, it did a poor job of it. It was a short time from the disgraceful influence of Rasputin in the Imperial Court to Lenin's Marxist dictatorship. and opposing sides in a Russian civil war that both sides deserved to lose. Both sides saw each other as damnable scum to exterminate in the event of victory.

How a society handles a 4T says much about the strengths and weaknesses of that society, and those societies best suited for sorting out the conflicting themes of contemporary thought and practice do best. Russia. of course becoming the Soviet Union, got a pathological leader (Stalin) who could never rule except as a brute. Germany let an angry crank get power, and we know how that went. Yes, Germany got a Regeneracy -- but a very bad one, and one that defined the Third Reich until its death.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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