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  Possible future predictions?
Posted by: Ghost - 03-26-2020, 04:57 PM - Forum: The Millennial Generation - Replies (20)

*Turning 18 on November 8, 2016 (Trump v. Hillary election) may end up being similar to turning 18 on August 24, 1995 (Windows 95 release) from a historical generational standpoint.

*The Homelanders term may completely replace the Generation Z term, resulting in people born in 1997-2002 eventually becoming Millennials.

*9/11 until the 2008 crash may be viewed as the "gray area" between 3T and 4T.

*The coronavirus scare will be viewed as the "peak of the Fourth Turning".

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  the generational cycle, progress, and the perception of mass death
Posted by: pbrower2a - 03-26-2020, 04:15 AM - Forum: Turnings - No Replies

(mostly taken from another forum, modified into a theory topic)

Infectious disease is a commonplace means of death in underdeveloped societies, and in developed societies such death is usually associated with opportunistic diseases such as pneumonia that kill people who already have one foot in the grave. HIV/AIDS was a huge shock because it ravaged people who otherwise should have been healthy adults. After all, even syphilis and gonorrhea typically have reliable treatments. HIV/AIDS is still something to avoid at all costs short of denying all intimacy of certain kinds. Ebola was a scare for some time, but it seems to be limited to the poorest parts of Africa to which few Americans have any connection. (If you are talking about African-American descendants of former slaves, then they have their origins in a different part of Africa; African immigrants tend to be from elsewhere in Africa, too). Children and prime-to-"young-old" adults dying of infectious diseases? That is clearly "Third World" (even if such trivialization of pointless death is morally objectionable).  

COVID-19 breaks the mold. It is more virulent than any disease in anything like modern conditions since the Spanish Influenza of a century ago. As I write this, it has been killing people who do not ordinarily die of infectious diseases, including people at or near the social apex in such countries as China, Iran, Italy, Spain, and the USA. I see a parallel to HIV-AIDS in who is dying. To be sure, many AIDS victims were people of disadvantage before they contracted it -- but Arthur Ashe, Liberace, Rock Hudson, Freddie Mercury, Robert Reid, and Anthony Perkins didn't seem like the sorts who would die of infectious diseases. People living in the favelas of Rio de Janeiro and the slums of Calcutta and big African cities so die. Poor, disadvantaged people get such diseases as tuberculosis these days, and tuberculosis used to be a killer across the social spectrum. If the mayor of a large Chinese city, an Iranian general, and a retired Italian judge (hero of the anti-Mafia crusade in Sicily) can die of it, then this disease can kill someone whose name is a household name will be on a similar list is only a matter of time, and probably not much.

We need to put much on hold just to prevent mass death. So far our President has fallen short on this as he has fallen short on other matters. Most of us recognize that a month or two of a boring, lonely unemployment and resulting hardship is a worthy price to pay to avoid having a pandemic that can kill -- who knows how many? At least with AIDS one can avoid using IV drugs and participation in reckless sexuality.  

Good leadership does not sugar-coat sacrifice. Life for many Americans will be boring and lonely, and many seeming opportunities that people take for granted will no longer exist for the duration. Much of what we did with little thought will be impossible or at most be done in coldly analytic ways. I see death as largely similar... and we tend to see deaths rather equally unless it involves people who have no chance. 

The most obvious comparisons can include motor-vehicle deaths and war deaths.  The twelve worst wars for the US alone by deaths have ranged from the ongoing war in Afghanistan (2216 so far) to the American Civil War (estimated 750,000, both Union and Confederate).

12
War in Afghanistan
2001–present
2,216
0.36
294,043,000
0.001% (2010)


11
Spanish–American War
1898
2,246
8.9
62,022,250
0.004% (1890)


10
Philippine–American War
1899–1902
4,196
3.8
72,129,001
0.006% (1900)


9
Iraq War
2003–2011
4,576
2
294,043,000
0.002% (2010)


8
Mexican–American War
1846–48
13,283
29
21,406,000
0.057% (1850)


7
War of 1812
1812–15
15,000
15
8,000,000
0.207% (1810)


6
American Revolutionary War
1775–83
25,000
11
2,500,000
1.00% (1780)


5
Korean War
1950–53
54,246
45
151,325,000
0.036% (1950)


4
Vietnam War
1961–75
58,209
11
179,323,175
0.032% (1970)


3
World War I
1917–18
116,516
279
103,268,000
0.110% (1920)


2
World War II
1941–45
405,399
297
133,402,000
0.307% (1940)


1
American Civil War
1861–65
750,000 (est.)(U.S./Confederate)[86]
520
31,443,000
2.385% (1860)


I can't add a table, so basically we have (using the Vietnam War as an example). 

(Data from Wikipedia)

4  -- ranking of the war

Vietnam War -- name of the war

1961–75 -- time-frame of the war

58,209 -- number of casualties

11 -- deaths per day

179,323,175 -- population of the USA at the time of the last Census before or during the war
0.032% (1970) -- percentage of the population killed

I could compare American wars  for their severity, and the one measure of severity that distinguishes the wars of a Crisis era is the percentage of Americans killed in combat. By the last measure, the American Civil War was worst, followed by the American Revolution, and then the Second Word War as a distant third. All three were Crisis Wars, and Americans showed themselves willing to sacrifice much for a noble end such as recovering freedoms that George III had taken away, preserving the Union and abolishing slavery, and preventing an Axis victory complete with enslavement and genocide. I don't see anything quite like one of those causes on the horizon. Such could be good for a discussion of the war phase of the generational cycle, and I will start a thread on that.

The fourth worst from the last measure was the War of 1812. The War of 1812 had 15,000 combat deaths, which seems slight in contrast to the Vietnam War, but the casualties of the War of 1812 relate to a far-smaller population. 

But I go to the War in Vietnam as a possible comparison for pointlessness of the war, the divisions that the war ripped into American life, and the perception of bungling. At this stage I cannot say what level of death in America will be most comparable to the level of combat deaths that America endured. But death is death unless something inexcusable (negligence, incompetence, contempt, or design, the latter two making the homicide murder) augments its vileness.

....Deaths by contagious disease have no high principle. War might solve a problem. Combat losses by the USA in WWII are smaller than  the Jewish population in the USA in 1940, and Hitler left no doubt about what he would have done to American Jews had he won the war and established a satellite state in America. I don't know what Hitler would have done to American blacks, but between him and a successor to the fascistic 1915 KKK that modeled itself upon the SS... it would not have been pretty. 

Or -- we could discuss motor-vehicle deaths. We don't think of this often, but we lost 36,560 people to motor vehicles in 2018, the last year for which data is available. That is much death, but for the size of the American population that  is one of the lowest numbers per population, lower such numbers mostly coming from a century or more ago when people were much less likely to have automobiles, let alone drive them often. Per million miles traveled? In the last century (1921 on), 2018 was the fifth-lowest per miles driven, the ten lowest numbers for that measure were from the last ten years. Of course we think differently of combat deaths than of vehicle deaths. No mother gets a gold star for losing a son or daughter as the result of a vehicle collision.

But vehicle death rates are down from where they used to be. Vehicle deaths per mile driven were  24.09 per billion miles driven in contrast to 1.13 per billion miles driven in 2018.

[Image: 220px-1910Ford-T.jpg]    

Would you feel safe in a car like this today on modern highways with all but the youngest drivers well experienced in driving cars, let alone on the awful roads of the early 1920's when most drivers were terribly inexperienced?  Consider the lack of modern safety features. Need I go into detail? It is a good thing that people drove relatively few miles in the early 1920's even at the low speeds that these under-powered "horseless carriages" allowed and when Prohibition was still effective.

The worst years for deaths-per-mile driven were the years from 1921 (not counting those before 1921 for which statistics are unreliable) through 1930 except that '1929' is just out of the range and '1934' somehow slips in, and I am guessing hat because 1934 was the first full year in which Prohibition was not the law of the land the drunk-driving rate had to be astronomical.

So why have traffic deaths abated as a share of the population and the number of miles driven?

1. The cars are better. Collapsible steering columns no longer impale drivers. Seat belts keep people inside the car. in their seats, so that that are less likely to be thrown out of the car or into the windshield. Air bags protect people from hitting the dashboard. Current vehicles are armored in contrast to what they used to be, and vehicle design sacrifices structure in the event of a collision to spare drivers and passengers from the destructive energy of the crash.

2. Child safety seats. Enough said. I would get an equivalent if I had a dog. 

3. Better roads. Much better roads. At first the idea of a good road was a paved one, which simply increased speed. A century ago unbanked curves and 90-degree curves were the norm. Many intersections had no control of right-of-way. Shoulders were narrow-to-non-existent. This is before the limited-access divided highways that offer far safer conditions despite higher speeds.

4. Better drivers. In 2020 a 65-year-old driver typically has almost fifty years of experience driving a car. In 1920 a 65-year-old driver was often a novice. New drivers get formal driver's training in a classroom and see gory videos of people mangled in the consequences of bad driving. Police patrol the highways for speeders and other erratic drivers (one fourth of all speeders are drunk!) Crackdowns upon drunk, drugged, and drowsy driving have resulted in bad drivers losing licenses. 

5. More driving is commuting, especially on freeways, tollways, and similar roads that force conformist driving while removing the usual perils of people turning in from driveways.   

OK -- because vehicle deaths are associated with the means that we use for commuting to work, getting the stuff that we need or want, expanding our 'personal universes' geographically we trivialize motor-vehicle accidents as opposed to war deaths (nobody really likes war) and infectious diseases that used to be commonplace across the social spectrum but are now rare except in the most disadvantaged parts of the world.

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  The Crisis That Never Ended
Posted by: TheNomad - 03-25-2020, 08:24 PM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (51)

Trying to be brief, I read an article that referenced the stimulus packages after 2001..... and the one after 2008..... and now this one.

Did this shit really ever end?  I keep trying to talk about the idea so many people never even went back to work after 2008.  Their jobs didn't exist anymore.  They fell off the tabs of Unemployment Benefits and simply stopped being counted.  But since then, ppl have lived in their vehicles while maintaining full-time job(s) or just moved in with family and never became independent again.  Or, became homeless and never got "back on their feet".

We should not forget all this when trying to examine WHEN did this "Crisis" begin anyway?  It can inform us of where we are IN the Crisis, thus, when it might end.

2008 - 2028?  That seems to be what Strauss is purveying.  I catch him every now and then with interviews.  He is currently working on "The First Turning" book.  I don't know if he has a co-author.

If so, we are smack in the middle if not past the middle.

But my point being, I find it amazing some are saying "The Crisis" as if it happened last week.  For some, there was no Crisis, for others, there was, for some, The Crisis they have been living for a LONG time.

Something tells me even aware individuals like HERE, we are not counting this correctly.  As if the Unraveling had been happening for 3 decades or more.  

Off the cuff without thinking too much, I want to say the Unraveling began around the 90s.  Even The 4th Turning places it there.  If so, that totally fits..... with Crisis in 2008 and now this crap. 

Can we get to a High in 8 years?  Of course, the authors say, every 4th Turning could spell total disaster.  It's not made in stone.

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  Boomer Champions of the Coronapocalypse
Posted by: sbarrera - 03-25-2020, 08:20 AM - Forum: Baby Boomers - Replies (14)

The COVID-19 pandemic has been rough on the President, as he is temperamentally unfit for executive leadership of a nation-state in the first place, and not good at coping with the pressure of daily press briefings about a relentless crisis. But he does seem to at least have tamed the press, and gathered a team that understands his need for deference and loyalty, which means they have a good chance of lasting through the crisis. 

The pandemic, however, has allowed other members of his generation to demonstrate their strong leadership skills, sometimes in concert with the President, and sometimes on their own, despite what is coming out of the White House. I'm thinking of Boomers such as-

Mike Pence (b. 1959) - Vice President and chairman of the White House Coronavirus Task Force
Deborah Birx (b. 1956) - response coordinator for the same task force
Andrew Cuomo (b. 1957) - Governor of New York state (whom people are jokingly calling the actual President)

And I have been impressed with my governor, who is probably not getting the same level of exposure-

Tom Wolf (b. 1948) - Governor of Pennsylvania

Please add more as you think of them.

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  "Climax" year of each turning
Posted by: Ghost - 03-24-2020, 08:20 PM - Forum: General Discussion - Replies (21)

I'm just going to take guesses, but please let me know what you think about this chart since 3T of the previous saeculum:

Great Power Saeculum (1865-1945)
3T (1908-1929): 1918 (Armistice day/End of WWI)
4T (1929-1945): 1933 (Hitler rising to power, worst year of the Great Depression)

Millennial Saeculum (1945-present)
1T (1945-1963): 1956? (peak of 50's pop culture)
2T (1963-1980): 1968 (MLK and RFK assassinations, "peak" year of Baby Boomer culture)
3T (1980-2008): 1989 (Berlin Wall falls, Tim Berners-Lee invents World Wide Web)
4T (2008-present): 2020 (WWIII scare, reactions to Brexit, coronavirus scare, hantavirus, possibly dramatic 2020 election)

I am most unsure about 1T and 2T for Millennial Saeculum.

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  Fiction Becoming Fact??
Posted by: TheNomad - 03-24-2020, 07:01 PM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (2)

Well, not fact.... but..

I ALMOST posted here a thread about a narrative that came to me.  A fictional one.

The fictional narrative was from my understanding of this 4th Turning theory and all this time I had my eye on IF there was going to be some major war.  Not even one on the scale of post-911 but the full-scale 4th Turning War of national boundaries redrawn and huge victories with enormous devastation to losers, etc.  Maybe we were all looking for signs of that a little.  I almost thought it was happening when that guy was killed in was it Iran, the post-impeachment strike that almost shook Iran against us.

In this fiction, I had China orchestrating this virus thing and American backlash leading to said huge war.  I got rather specific in the narrative, something about well, of course China hates us and wants to cripple our economy.  I think that would be a given.  Extremely generalized but given.  For a fiction, it works.  Creating the virus while immunizing select of China secretly (their over-population is legendary, wouldn't this be a good chance to pull a Thanos and jab your enemy at the same time)... and directing it toward places it knew would lead to America.  But maybe it got out of hand, didn't work so well as intended.  It's later discovered to be the case, America became crippled by what China had done and the way back for us is industrialized war (as was last 4T) and etc etc etc

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/politics/...index.html

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Sad Open By Easter
Posted by: TheNomad - 03-24-2020, 06:52 PM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (48)

Let's get to it, then.

This whole thing of "America was not meant to be closed" and that ppl will sacrifice by dying to save the Economy.

Start the ball, Cajun.

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  Will the new saeculum start after the pandemic is over?
Posted by: Blazkovitz - 03-24-2020, 11:40 AM - Forum: Turnings - Replies (17)

The pandemic appears to have killed culture wars, Jeremy Corbyn and Sadiq Khan support BoJo's lockdown. Something hard to imagine during the recent 4T defined by a cold civil war. A typical 1T bit.

If not remembering Covid-19 is a criterion, generation Alpha starts in 2017. A baby boom can happen because of the lockdowns and this would make 2021 the equivalent of 1946 in the old saeculum. Millennial end date is also stabilised as people born in 2001 were the last to become legal adults before the pandemic.

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Star This makes me really sad
Posted by: TheNomad - 03-23-2020, 08:29 PM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (2)

Today, I got malaise over the idea we - the world - has been brought low so easily.  We're so fragile, tied to "economy".  It's the way of modern living, and can't we see it's doomed? Unless we all go to work, spend money and PAY for everything, our world as we know it stops.  It's finally happened, no one here can take care of ourselves anymore.  Everyone is Hooked In to the system. 

It feels like a slipknot.

I wrote a poem about it just now!  Sharing is sublime.  Sharing our feelz... possibly and a fire and weed IN that fireplace.  Just I guess it should fill the whole house.  Can anyone share what they are doing to get by?  Wouldn't mind hearing any of it

So, this poem is part of me.  Not every part of me.  Anyone writing through this??

My America of sea and land
Live by her, she provides
Cull the grain, burn the chaff
Net the waves, reap the tides

Neighbor trades, a friendship make
Banquets shared and gived
Goodness for the Goodness sake
For now my heart it breaks

We cannot live without our screen
Shopping there is so serene
Global net, our inbetween
Fragile, fraile, as we careen

What happened to our chance?
Are we destined, doomed by nature's dance?
Humbled and weak, can't feed ourselves
Here come the Dark Elves

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  Do You Know Anyone With The Virus?
Posted by: TheNomad - 03-23-2020, 06:01 AM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (21)

I don't see a better place for this.

Simple question.  You personally.  Do you know anyone who has the virus?

I do not. I've not personally heard of anyone in my "network" that has it.

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