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  Hypothetical coronavirus in the 2T
Posted by: sbarrera - 03-15-2020, 09:12 AM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (25)

What if COVID-19 had happened 40 years ago, in 1980? It was the tail end of the 2T/Awakening. What would have been different?

I'm guessing there would not have been as much of a government response in the United States. None of this proactive shutting down of schools and businesses. If would have felt less fearful and more zany.

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  A Virus Lie?
Posted by: TheNomad - 03-13-2020, 04:53 PM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (29)

I'm disgusted that to think this current CoronaStorm is a lie ... but I'm more disgusted it isn't the lie you think I am talking about.

First, either we are all gonna die, God is coming, Earth will disintegrate soon [insert fireball/doom] or not.

A lie seems to be happening, though.  Can anyone examine this with me? 

We have been leading up to today with this Virus advertised everywhere for a few weeks now
Today is Friday the 13th
The headline I read said something like "Stocks Buck From Lowest Since 1987"
President is shown shaking hands with ppl who may/may not be diagnosed
Fear Pandering rampant
Headlines today are about "Americans isolated in homes, sing with neighbors"
We head into a weekend where it's optimal Feartime to mull over how we will all die

I cannot BRING to you some motive or identity or even purpose for whatever this is.  I simply am of extreme doubt.  I don't even expect to get a cold, but if I do, I won't act any differently than I ever did.  Even with all this fearmongering, nothing feels much different.  That's just me.

but some ppl are going to become very wealthy with their stock if they are wise. 

So, being cyclical in my thought concerning history and the future, I had to think WHAT WAS happening in 1987 according to that headline?  A major stark market hit.  I had no stock at that time so I remember it best hearing Tom Brokaw opened the news with "The Fleecing Of America".  I enjoyed that series about how every now and then, events come along to rock to stock market.  Lots of people lose, but more win than lose for sure.  Not as some gamble, but as knowing when to prey on the loss of others with timing.  We won't go into that.

Is this a new Fleecing?

Is the Virus a lie?  As in, does it exist as a medical thing?  I'm sure.  Is it a Pandemic?  Is that coming?  I am not sure.  I read over a very simple "fact v fiction" about this Virus that a small percent of people die when having contracted it (number to fall) and this is true with every major Virus "upgrade" while our world gets smaller and smaller with global interaction.

THAT'S JUST THE WAY IT IS. 

When children are introduced to other children in, say, schools, they are infected with all kinds of things which the body transmutes and then immune.

MEDICAL FACT. 

Old people are at huge risk within that small percent.  Shaving the number down even further, substandard hygiene accessibility.  Shaving the number down further, proximity to original outbreaks.  Shaving that number down further, practicing common sense of BEING hygienic. 

Isn't this just Crisis #?,??? among the heap of Crisis factors in a 4th Turning?

wtf is all this coming from anyway?

To heap down death and destruction on a world already in tornadic heaving.  On Friday The 13th, leaving us the entire weekend with our stack of toilet paper and bottles water.. i mean, WHAT would this be if Netflix went down? 

Do we wait until Monday to see if the President is infected?  He was exposed to Brazil guy or whatever who is +/- depending what paper you have

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  Please Just Don't Change?
Posted by: TheNomad - 03-12-2020, 05:18 PM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (2)

*This essay format exists in the "Political Discussion" because no other place here seems appropriate.

This forum is within the context of 4 Turnings, a Saeculum, etc.  Where, we know patterns are happening.

Linear Time is not something that fits well here.  But, that's another story.  The point being, we - here - should at least comprehend we exist now in a  Turning

Crisis.

Really, it doesn't need much more explanation.  Tumult and waves of seemed chaos.  Now, cloistered in our homes or whatever with Corona.  The wrong Corona.  But we should know, all of this, too, will pass.  4th Turning is shocking to ppl who don't know what's happening.  Everything from before is passing away.  Things must and will change.

Anakin Skywalker: "I don't want things to change, mom."
Shmi Skywalker: "But Anni, you can't stop the change."

Very simple.  I would assess much of what is happening to throngs of folks who recognize and openly will even shout things must change.  But, it seems they don't like the "face" of what is on the other side of that change. 

We cannot control how things change in a 4th Turning.  It is massive, structural, and according to Strauss and Howe, there MUST be even a crumbling and collapse for the new to begin. 

They liken it to winter with leaves falling from a tree, you cannot then say we do not want the tree, go cut it down for it offends me.  Impossible.

The "face" of the other side of a transformative 4th Turning.  What is mostly holding it back?  Blatantly, it just seems clear if we must abide by political ideology, and gather ppl up into two herds.................................

Herd A wants change.  They want to invest in moving forward.  They have vision for what they want to happen and a desire to implement it.

No matter what you think of this ^^ above, it is a desire to move forward, that's why there's a term "Progressive".  Anyone can say they don't like what that agenda for Progression IS......... but the fundamental principle of the future, how to solve emerging issues, managing how America continues............. IT IS PRESENT.

Herd B seems only concerned with collaring Herd A.  It seems they have no agenda of their own EXCEPT to lasso restrictions and hold back Herd A. 

No matter what you think of this ^^ above, it does not work in the context of a 4th Turning.  In a 4th Turning, we cannot remain in rooms for decades and millennia deciding which billion dollars funds which plan to address which issue.  There is no plan, desire, or momentum to move forward.

Breaking it down further, the crux of this described is Herd B constituents not wanting to look at a tree with the leaves fallen off, and demanding it be chopped down.  Not understanding it will sprout again in Spring. 

However, Herd B sort of believes when the tree sprouts again, it's going to be some offensive and odorous thing that will frighten them, and they must hold onto the dead leaves of the tree and they fear what will happen if they don't cut the tree down.

Can this even work inside of a Generational/Cyclical model LIKE the forum where we are now interacting?  If we don't change our minds, can we allow the change to happen?  It MUST happen.  We can't control what it will look like on the other side.

Not in a Crisis period.

There is great anger in America at those in charge who are not doing anything.  It seems now, Herd A and Herd B are somewhat united in that one thing: anger.  Anger because things are not changing.

Herd B is in the crowd, holding their candlelight vigil in one hand and dead leaves in another.

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  COVID-19 versus the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
Posted by: Increase Mather - 03-12-2020, 05:05 PM - Forum: Turnings - Replies (14)

With the market meltdown going on this week, I've been spending way too much time watching CNBC.  COVID-19 really has everyone running wild.  You've got Jim Cramer and his underlings quoting FDR all day, demanding that Big Daddy Government take action to save us.  No matter where you sit on the subject of Keynesian Interventionism, this is pretty striking.

Then there's the breakdown in the former OPEC-Russia alliance, causing oil prices to tank.  Muhammed bin Salman and Vladimir Putin were bestest buddies until very recently, now they're bitter enemies.  You have to think that again, is is these "extordinary times" that prompted the change.

Is the Fourth Turning in full swing now, or what?  The overreaction to this crisis, imho, will ultimately save lives, but lose many their livelihoods.

It's the exact inverse of what most governments did during the (Third Turning) 1918 Pandemic, which was worse than this one in terms of mortality rates. There was a world war going on at the time, so no government or media mouthpiece would admit weakness, thereby giving aid and comfort to the enemy.

The only country that did admit what was going on was neutral Spain, so of course the disease came to be called "Spanish Flu".

For Strauss and Howe scholars, it's hard to imagine a situation that illustrates the generational theory more readily.  COVID-19 has become a full-blown crisis because society is in the mood to MAKE it a crisis.

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  Homeless File Lawsuit Demanding Shelter Provision
Posted by: TheNomad - 03-12-2020, 03:04 PM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (6)

Is this story a diametric opposition to the idea homeless want to be homeless?  Do we need to redefine what it means to say "homeless"?  Is it someone without walls who enjoys the "freedom" of the elements on their skin in the night?  Are they demanding the government support their heroin lifestyle while providing them beds to "crash" on while high?  Are they human beings that want the most basic necessity and simply fell to a level where that was no longer available to them? 

Is this story fake because it's from CNN? 
Is it promoting the "homeless agenda" to get you to pay for their "lifestyle" choices?
Is the story about human rights?

WHAT IS "HOMELESS"?

We should all be talking about it.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

An alliance of both housed and homeless people has filed a lawsuit against Los Angeles to order thousands of beds be provided for the un-sheltered.

The complaint filed Tuesday by the LA Alliance for Human Rights accuses the city of neglecting its responsibilities and investing resources in approaches that are too slow to address the homelessness problem in Los Angeles. The suit hopes to mandate that the city and county provide services for the homeless population including training, healthcare and shelter in a faster time frame.

"We really are looking to catalyze change on a systemic level," said Elizabeth Mitchell, an attorney who filed the suit on behalf of the LA Alliance for Human Rights. "We are not looking to get rich. We are not looking for money. We really are looking for change."
Los Angeles City Attorney Mike Feuer's office said it is reviewing the lawsuit and does not have a comment at this time.

Despite major investment in combating the crisis, the homeless population in Los Angeles County increased to almost 60,000 people in 2019, the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority said in a June report.

And about 75% of those people are un-sheltered, according to the complaint. In comparison, New York City -- which has a right to shelter -- has an un-sheltered rate of 5%, Mitchell said.

"Officials in both the County and City have gone to great lengths in the last couple years to address this crisis, and their efforts are impressive and commendable; yet much more needs to be done," the suit says.

The problem, Mitchell said, is that Los Angeles City and County are investing in expensive programs like permanent housing, but with three people dying of the homelessness crisis per day the problem is outpacing their solutions.

To reach an additional 22,000 beds in a matter of months, the suit suggests that the city and county work together to explore options like shared housing, tiny houses, 3D printed homes and "other financially feasible options that enable rapid sheltering along with wrap-around services to empower those experiencing homelessness to reintegrate with their communities," Mitchell said in a press release.
The suit began as a grassroots effort. Downtown residents formed the LA Alliance for Human Rights last summer in response to the suffering around them and in hopes of finding new ways to "break through the barriers," the release said.

Instead of fighting through bureaucracies, the movement turned to the courts -- a system that could move more quickly and provide outside accountability, Mitchell said.

Speed is important in an issue that has economic, environmental and criminal impacts on the area, but Mitchell said everyone involved is concerned about the issue from a humanitarian perspective.

"Whether a person is on the streets of their own accord or because they lost their jobs, people can still say this shouldn't be the case and we shouldn't be leaving our people in the streets," Mitchell said.

- By Madeline Holcombe, CNN Reporter

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  Loneliness--The Other Pandemic
Posted by: beechnut79 - 03-12-2020, 11:07 AM - Forum: Society and Culture - No Replies

Last night I read a story on my cellphone feed where this one writer shares her ordeal of loneliness stating that she really has no life as a single mother with a young daughter.  And this situation is bound to get even worse if the coronavirus continues to create more situations of cancelled public events and isolation, whether forced or not.  The situation is already enough that we can consider it to be the other pandemic, the one that does not get talked about nearly enough.  As a lifelong single person, I went through the loneliness batter fairly early in life. Didn't have much social life during my 20s, part of that stemming from a prolonged muted adolescence spent in two different boarding schools. Had issues as a child but later determined that it probably was Asperger's even though the diagnosis of that wasn't available at the time. Made up for lost time big though during the late 1970s and some of the 1980s before the AIDS scare made more people afraid of others again.

Many such as single parents may be craving some alone time when children are in school, but more often than not they are out working themselves so they seldom if ever get that, even though the work from home option is become ever more popular. There is often a need to just get away from it all and hide.  Beginning in the late 1980s there was a sharp trend toward cocooning, which in essence means exactly that.  This trend was spotted by a woman named Faith Popcorn, who saw it coming during the days when life seemed like one big party.  In the hale days of my generation's youth, we pretty much lived to go out. Some maybe stayed in once a month on a Monday night or something like that. Staying in on a weekend night unless you were deathly sick was akin to blasphemy.  One with the Asperger's condition is often prone to go so far as to say something impulsively, which will certain get you that alone time, but not in the way you had envisioned, but you'll regret it later on. It does seem that the balance between freedom and connection is getting more elusive.

I do tend to believe that much of today's isolation, whether self-imposed or not, is due to excessive debt and work loads, which I have said many times on the forum is the exact opposite of what so many pundits expected with the advent of modern technology. Remember when we were told that said technology would give most of us so much leisure time that we wouldn't know what to do with ourselves?  There was even a book written on the subject, titled "The Overworked American: The Unexpected Decline of Leisure" by Juliet Schor. I read that book and remember toward the end the author stating that we won't have more leisure unless a significant portion of the society determines that we must have it. Obviously it has not happened yet. Ms. Schor followed it up with another book titled "The Overspent American" in which she describes heavy debt loads as a big contributor to the whole "I don't have time" syndrome.

Here is a link to one article on how the loneliness pandemic seems to snowball:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archi...ss/521841/

Now perhaps the best known song dealing with loneliness and isolation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuS5NuXRb5Y

There are many more articles dealing with the loneliness pandemic.

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  The Coronavirus
Posted by: Bob Butler 54 - 03-10-2020, 06:15 AM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (98)

The virus has two oft quoted numbers.  For each person who gets it, about two people are infected.  The problem is that this is a number clearly greater than one.  It means that everyone will eventually have to live in an infected environment.  

The other number is two percent of those infected die.

I have seen the Trump gang comparing one number or the other with prior outbreaks and declaring that we have seen compareable numbers before and will do well.  I think we have to multiply the two numbers together to fight this complacency.  Sure, there have been lots of diseases that are contagious, but not fatal, or fatal but don’t spread easily.  But if a bug is both, you have a problem.

Many parts of the world see a problem.  There is a sense that it will take a year or two to develop an effective, safe and mass producible vaccine.  It is generally seen as wise to slow the spread as much as possible during the one or two years until then.  There could be a big economic glitch involved in doing it.  One can see the Trump desire to minimize the virus, to minimize the thought of a glitch coming.  I do not see how he can hope to do it.  Instead he will only make things very visibly worse before the election.

I have been comparing it in my mind to the Great War’s flu.  Does anyone know the two numbers for that one, or other diseases where both numbers multiply to something similar?  I have read some old letters that came out in my genealogy research.  The family avoided fatalities with the 1918 flu, but the disruption was real.  How does the current problem compare to other pandemics such as the Black Death?

The contagious and fatality numbers are not commonly available.  Does anyone know where to look?

I am happily retired, well off, old enough to be in the heavily lethal age, and am thinking of a precautionary self quarantine.  I could minimize going out, and order groceries and other things online and delivered or sent by mail.  Amazon and Peapod, anyone?  I have already done quite a bit of this for other reasons.  Now seems the time for one last fling before shutdown.  

I am thinking of a new computer.  Should I have it shipped here rather that have the local Apple Store do a few mods?  My annual physical is about due at the local health care center.  Should I cancel?

Will such self quarantine become the new normal for a time?  Will this accelerate the death of brick and mortar businesses, and impact the restaurant and travel industries? Others?  Will it present a problem for Trump, enough to perhaps be considered the trigger event?  Will we see a change in the perceived need for big government, in being prepared for disasters, in the value of scientific thinking, in thinking of everybody rather than tribally?  How big a glitch should we be expecting?

Thoughts?  I thought it worth a thread.

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  Each Generation's Name (since Revolutionary Saeculum) Ranked
Posted by: Camz - 03-09-2020, 05:12 PM - Forum: Generations - Replies (22)

It's been a while since my last thread. We talked a bit about the origin of some generations' names, and I like ranking stuff, so why not make this thread?
To clarify, I'm not ranking them based on their accomplishments or traits or whatever. Their positions here are based purely on their names, in my personal opinion with a ton of bias.
I know very little about gens before the Revolutionary Saeculum, and most things before the creation of the U.S. bore me, so I feel unqualified to rank those.
---

15) Missionary - The most Civic-Hero-sounding name, and it's for prophets. That's always bugged me. This name gives the same vibe as "G.I. Gen" or "Republican Gen". That's it really.

14) Progressive - Sure, the name fits. They played a huge role in the Progressive Era as well as the Missionaries. It's not bad at all to name generations after eras. But the named 'Progressive' gives huge boring-800-page-school-text-book vibes, and the name overall seems to lack flavor to me. Especially on Adaptives, idk why.

13) Compromise - And here we have the most Adaptive-Artist-sounding name! Same problem with the Progressive Gen. It's not a bad name at all, it just can't make me feel many emotions.

12) Homeland- Can we get an F in the chat for us Artists But yeah, the name seems outdated at this point, and I prefer using "Gen Z" (even if it provokes anger within me because of times when Redditors on r/GenZ get offended when I calmly say that I don't think Gen Z starts in the 90s). Same boring textbook-sounding name. Maybe it's because I wasn't alive when the Department of Homeland Security was founded, so the name just sounds like a painful government lesson to me.

11) Baby Boom - It's better to name generations after a characteristic they develop or an event they've gone through. The Boomer generation started before the baby boom, and it ended before the end of the baby boom. This confuses Pew and makes them latch onto that one characteristic to determine the birth range of that generation. This causes statistics and research projects to be technically incorrect, and it confuses many Xers who think they're being targetted by Boomer hate. Down with Pew. Please stop this.
...But it's fun to call old people "Boomers", and I also like calling people my age "Zoomers". It's a fun-sounding name.

10) Millennial - The first civic name to appear here, and next to their parents. It sounds magical because they're gonna absolutely rule the first half of the first century of the new Millenium. That's it.

9) Transcendental - The first image that pops up in my head when thinking of this is a sitting room filled with high-class men in white wigs with maids pouring rainbow-colored tea in their golden china teacups. I don't think that's the image I'm supposed to get at all (Awakeners maybe?) but eh, I like that its fancy-sounding.

8) Republican - I like it, and it fits. I guess it's slightly awkward in a time where it's a huge and controversial political party.

7) G.I. - Simple, sweet, fitting. Please don't call them the "Greatest" Generation tho.

6) Awakening - Simple, sweet, fittting. I am now at a higher consciousness.

5) Gilded - This is the saddest sounding name, and it doesn't even have the edgy coolness the "Lost" Generation has. ...And that's what makes it a good name. The Gilded Age was their age, and the shame that goes along with it is fascinating.

4) Liberty - Simple, sweet, fitting. Actually it's badass, not sweet. I love it.

These last three are practically a tie...

X - "The "X" refers to an unknown variable or to a desire not to be defined." The name's just so edgy and cool sounding. And pop culture at the time of Gen X's youth loved using that letter iirc. When I think of X, I think of an abandoned teenager in loose dark clothing lighting a cigarette, just using his unbandaged right hand, which is covered in scars. He sees the other kids picking fights with each other, trying to ignore them, but when one punches him, he pulls out a katana and barely holds back. I get very weird thoughts. But yeah, 11/10 name.

Silent - Poor babies! Gotta protect them from any danger at all cost. This name implies many things, but it stems from their experiences during WWII and the Great Depression. They were hushed by adults, who didn't let them do much besides alleviating the Crisis through small deeds. They became rebels without a cause, ones that were very reflective. I can't imagine what beautiful tragedies were painted inside their heads every day. They are not a physical generation, they are a mental one. Somber perfection.

Lost- This generation has some of the worst people of all time, but also outstanding writers. I can't imagine coming back from WWI with PTSD, taking a blow from the Great Depression, seeing your kids fight in WWII, living in darkness until you reach your old age, when little matters to you anymore. Somber perfection as well.
---

I'd love to see what you guys think of the names of each Generation! Hearing other opinions is fun Big Grin

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  Are early even decade cohorts usually cusps of two generations?
Posted by: Cocoa Puff - 03-08-2020, 02:39 AM - Forum: Generations - Replies (13)

Example: 
Early '60s cohort (Prophet/Nomad)
Early '80s cohort (Nomad/Hero)
Early '00s cohort (Hero/Artist)

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  2020 Predictions
Posted by: JDG 66 - 03-07-2020, 05:08 PM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (29)

A place for horse race predictions.

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