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  Issue with using coronavirus to determine when generations end
Posted by: Ghost - 04-23-2020, 09:40 PM - Forum: The Millennial Generation - No Replies

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  Names for Cusps?
Posted by: Camz - 04-23-2020, 08:52 AM - Forum: Generations - Replies (6)

This document has got me thinking. It gives the following names for cusps:

Millennial -> Charter Cusp -> Homelander
X -> Justice Cusp -> Millennial
Boomer -> Jones Cusp -> X
Silent -> War Baby Cusp -> Boomer
G.I. -> Greatest Cusp -> Silent
Lost -> Interbellum Cusp -> G.I.
Missionary -> Roosevelt Cusp -> Lost
Progressive -> Civil War Baby -> Missionary
Gilded -> Bloody Shirt Cusp -> Progressive
Robber Baron Cusp
Transcendental Cusp...
New Frontier Cusp (these three are inconsistent)
Republican -> Federal Cusp -> Compromise
Liberty -> Founder Cusp -> Republican

Cusps are almost as important as generations as a whole, and it'd be cool if they had official names. Let's come up with some!

The name "Charter Cusp" sounds a bit dated IMO. We should use "Zoomer Cusp" instead, because
a) It references the media calling us "Gen Z" at some point
b) It references generation memes where we're called "Zoomers" because we're the antithesis to Boomers
c) It references "Zoom", which many of us are using for online classes during the COVID-19 pandemic
d) I guess it references the "Zoomer" mechanical pet toys? They were advertised all the time on TV back in the early to mid-2010s.

I don't know where "Justice Cusp" comes from. If anyone does know, let me know.

I think we can all agree that "Jones Cusp" is a perfect name.

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  Pandemic will lead to increased online infrastructure
Posted by: sbarrera - 04-23-2020, 08:44 AM - Forum: General Discussion - Replies (2)

Pennsylvania's unemployment system has been slammed, as I'm sure is the case in every other state. Our governor assures us that they are working on improving capacity. Other changes being made to accomodate the shutdown/social distancing include changing the law to make notarizing possible online - this opens up the auto market to  online sales. I bring this up to point out that one fallout of the pandemic will be improved online infrastructure, particularly in government. 

I'm sure we've all seen the memes lamenting the sorry state of online government...

[Image: 94262220_10219279819414013_8550205169554...e=5EC7C269]

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  The Generation Report by Paul Zimmy Finn
Posted by: sbarrera - 04-21-2020, 05:49 PM - Forum: Theories Of History - Replies (3)

This is a great YouTube channel that is devoted to Strauss & Howe theory.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLvJBXY...eoBfH8yy1A

The creator, Paul Zimmy Finn, is clearly well versed in the theory. He describes it in detail in a series of videos. I recommend going through them all.

Here is the first episode:


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  What's your opinion on these issues?
Posted by: Blazkovitz - 04-19-2020, 04:51 AM - Forum: Theory Related Political Discussions - Replies (2)

What’s your opinion on feminism, political correctness and migration?

FEMINISM

I admire early feminism for standing up and challenging centuries of male domination. But now that’s history, and almost everybody agrees with its gains. So I’ll focus on modern feminism. I like feminists who fight against prostitution, pornography and sexual harassment. They really defend civilized values against barbaric machismo. I sympathize with MeToo aims.

Then many feminists go to far. They don’t want men to appreciate sensuality of the female body. They don’t want to hear that obesity is a disease, or that casual sex is risky and destructive, because these truths might make some women ashamed. We see here a dogmatic form of Leftism, which denies that anybody might be better (healthier, more beautiful, more moral) than somebody else. Feminism needs to be purged of the disease.

POLITICAL CORRECTNESS

There are many manifestations of PC, so I don’t have the same attitude towards all. In general the state should not interfere with free speech too much. Especially scientific research must be completely free and open. Noone should impose dubious scientific concepts like the “gay gene”. And if one feels "triggered" by offensive humour, one should simply stop listening.

I am however genuinely shocked by extreme racism and sexism. I think it’s a good idea to censor extreme hate speech like Holocaust denial. Actual fascist propaganda is too dangerous to be allowed to reach the public.

I also think PC is an overstated problem, it’s very prominent on the American campus but elsewhere nationalist authoritarianism is a bigger threat. Evangelical preachers aren’t typically persecuted for saying that homosexuality is a sin.

MIGRATION

In general, I support open borders and global citizenship. But we cannot forget about the economy. No country should take in more migrants than it can accommodate. Educated people who are an asset for the labour market should be preferred over the uneducated with little prospect of employment. Also, non-Muslim migrants should be preferred over Muslims, and among Muslims the relatively secular over the devout. The state should also vigorously promote humanism and secularism in immigrant communities. In extreme cases, when immigrant parents brainwash their children with religious fanaticism, the children should be taken away and adopted by secular humanist families.

So I am in favour with temporarily restricting immigration for safety and pragmatic economic reasons, but not for ethnocentric reasons. The problem is that the Third World migrants are too ethnocentric, and not that Anglos are not ethnocentric enough.

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  The geographic advantage of the United States
Posted by: sbarrera - 04-17-2020, 11:44 AM - Forum: History Forum - Replies (2)

This is a great historical analysis of how favorable geography made the rise of the United States as a superpower inevitable.

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/g...ble-empire

Excerpt:

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Like nearly all of the peoples of North and South America, most Americans are not originally from the territory that became the United States. They are a diverse collection of peoples primarily from a dozen different Western European states, mixed in with smaller groups from a hundred more. All of the New World entities struggled to carve a modern nation and state out of the American continents. Brazil is an excellent case of how that struggle can be a difficult one. The United States falls on the opposite end of the spectrum.

The American geography is an impressive one. The Greater Mississippi Basin together with the Intracoastal Waterway has more kilometers of navigable internal waterways than the rest of the world combined. The American Midwest is both overlaid by this waterway and is the world's largest contiguous piece of farmland. The U.S. Atlantic Coast possesses more major ports than the rest of the Western Hemisphere combined. Two vast oceans insulated the United States from Asian and European powers, deserts separate the United States from Mexico to the south, while lakes and forests separate the population centers in Canada from those in the United States. The United States has capital, food surpluses and physical insulation in excess of every other country in the world by an exceedingly large margin. So like the Turks, the Americans are not important because of who they are, but because of where they live.

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  It's nice to be posting on a forum again
Posted by: Isoko - 04-16-2020, 01:10 PM - Forum: General Discussion - Replies (8)

You know guys, it really has been a pleasure to actively post on a forum again. I was just thinking today how I really enjoy logging in to see a new post to respond to or to catch up with really intense debates.

I really am showing my age but I really do remember the hey day of the forums and how exciting they were. Being on here beings back that thrill which so never thought I'd experience again.

It's such a sad shame to see the death of the forums and it's replacement by Reddit like posts and obviously Twitter. The magic of the internet I felt really died when the forums went into decline.

So here's to keeping the forum going and the discussions flowing for as long as we can!

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  What Will Come of This 4T?
Posted by: namentstone - 04-15-2020, 08:49 AM - Forum: Turnings - Replies (46)

The U.S. is now at least halfway through the 4T (going by Howe's start date of 2008) and it's not at all clear which side's ideas will triumph, or how those ideas could form the basis for a new 1T consensus. While COVID-19 has rapidly strengthened popular support for drastic, immediate public action and perhaps for "big government" of a kind, we are still heading into a tossup election with the potential to leave our federal government yet more gridlocked and public confidence in it less sturdy than ever.

I was a member of the old Fourth Turning forums about 12 to 14 years ago, when I was a teenager. At the time, the major debate among us was whether the 4T had yet begun. In fall 2008, it became eminently clear to me we had entered the 4T. Liberal Millennial idealist that I was, I hoped to see Obama usher in a new era of progressive government. While he had meaningful legislative successes, the 2010 midterm elections upended those hopes and brought the federal government to new heights of dysfunction. Then came the 2016 election and (with it) the legitimation of isolationism, strongman politics, and blatant up-is-down falsehood in American politics. All of this was very 4T, of course, but with Trump losing the popular vote by 3 million and the Democrats regaining the House of Representatives in 2018, any hopes that Trumpism could form the basis for a new public consensus were thankfully dashed as well.

Nevertheless, a 4T is supposed to launch new public institutions and hopefully more effective government. There seems to be a powerful streak of anti-elitism and anti-plutocracy in U.S. politics that was a bit dormant before 2008, but with Republicans continuing to back fiscal policies that favor the wealthy, I don't see a 2020s New Deal around the corner. Expanding health care access, taxing the rich, and promoting renewable energy are all causes with majority support, but which are fiercely opposed by a party that wins half the votes and half the seats in Congress (and Democrats are unlikely to go full Bernie Sanders if they win a bare Senate majority on the backs of anti-Trump suburbanites in key states). At the moment, a critical mass of the American public cannot agree on basic facts, let alone solutions to complex policy questions like health care and climate change. How does government get anything done in this environment? How does either side remain in power long enough to enact an ambitious 4T agenda around which the 1T is organized? How does a 4T resolve in an age of hyper-polarization?

I note that Millennials at the moment remain lopsidedly Democratic-leaning, and that even Republican Millennials tend toward a more internationalist and socially progressive orientation than their elders. (This is also true in the UK and a number of other democracies.) Is generational replacement the simple answer to my question?

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  Greatest scientist ever?
Posted by: Blazkovitz - 04-11-2020, 05:50 AM - Forum: History Forum - Replies (7)

I cannot choose between Copernicus, Newton and Darwin.

Copernicus - showed us our place in the Cosmos.
Newton - proved that reality works according to mathematical laws. His laws have immense practical applications.
Darwin - "nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of evolution"

Since I could enumerate two reasons to honour Newton, perhaps he should be the greatest.

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  COVID-19 is the perfect 4T event?
Posted by: sbarrera - 04-04-2020, 12:32 PM - Forum: Turnings - Replies (105)

One thing that The Fourth Turning predicted is that in the 4T, private life would slow down while public life would undergo rapid change. The 3T prioritization of the needs of the individual would fall to the wayside as the need to protect the community became paramount.

Well, the COVID-19 pandemic certainly seems to have made this happen very rapidly. Suddenly we all must consume much less, put aside our needs for amusement and material satisfaction, and sacrifice our way of life in order to preserve the lives of our fellow citizens.

I'm thinking there are other things about the pandemic that are making it almost like the perfect event to usher in a 4T.

* The sudden need to respect government authority and for the crisis to be handled with a top-down approach.
* The sudden re-focus on family & domestic life, including the new need for child care at home since schools are closed.
* Celebrity culture (a hallmark of the 3T) is suddenly completely irrelevant.

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