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  National Liberalism: It's Still Very Much Alive
Posted by: Anthony '58 - 11-18-2019, 05:44 PM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (10)

That's my take from Saturday's gubernatorial election in Louisiana.  The text comes courtesy of the award-winning (j/k) blog, Category 6 (the strength of "hurricane" sure to happen unless we cut out this divisiveness, post haste) on facebook.

In a rare non-Tuesday election, Democrat John Bel Edwards was re-elected governor of Louisiana - an outcome that is instructive on many levels.

First, it is living proof that national liberalism - the philosophy that Rose Montefusco identified her husband Tony in the short-lived 1975 NBC-TV series The Montefuscos as having - liberal on most things but conservative with the (Catholic) Church - is alive and well in America (Senators Joe Manchin, Bob Casey, and Doug Jones, Congressmen Daniel Lipinski and Henry Cuellar, and Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina, just to scratch the surface, are clearly national liberals).

The term "national liberal," by the way, was coined by Michael Lind, who used it in his two bestsellers in the '90s, The Next American Nation (1995) and Up From Conservatism: Why The Right Is Wrong For America (1996; in the latter book he quoted Marvin Harris, who correctly identified the 1958-68 baby bust in his 1987 work Why Nothing Works: The Anthropology Of Daily Life) to denote those who are progressive economically but conservative socially.

Second, it proved that holding an election on a weekend as opposed to the traditional Tuesday can greatly help the Democrat, since it will increase, or more accurately, not reduce, the turnout of Democrat-leaning constituencies - and that could have been the decisive factor in the Louisiana governor's race, which Edwards won by just 51-49 per cent. If the election were held on a Tuesday instead, Edwards very likely would have lost.

A Catholic, a Baby Buster (born in 1966) and a Desert Storm veteran who is staunchly pro-life, Edwards signed a bill banning abortion after 15 weeks of a pregnancy in May of 2018, and just 12 months later doubled down on this by signing an even more stringent "heartbeat law." But with an eye on his party's progressive wing, Edwards expressed support for banning discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation with only the most narrowly-drawn religious exemptions, raising the minimum wage, and equal pay for men and women.
Michael Lind posited that Catholic voters could position themselves as a moderate foil to both the low-church Protestant fundamentalists on the right and the "secular humanists" on the left.

The re-election of John Bel Edwards - who added the "Bel" to his professional name to avoid confusion with John Edwards, the former North Carolina Senator and unsuccessful Vice Presidential candidate whose career was destroyed by an adultery scandal, and who closely resembles an actor who subsequently appeared on a SunSetter awning commercial - is living proof that the death of national liberalism as a viable political philosophy has been greatly exaggerated.

This John Edwards, or lookalike thereof, won't be hawking awnings on TV anytime soon.

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  Some bad Boomer memes
Posted by: Hintergrund - 11-18-2019, 09:47 AM - Forum: Baby Boomers - Replies (18)

If you think "OK Boomer" was offensive, better leave this thread now.


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  Theater Production about the Fourth Turning
Posted by: sbarrera - 11-15-2019, 07:17 AM - Forum: Society and Culture - Replies (10)

There is actually a play up Off-Broadway that incorporates the Fourth Turning idea. It's pretty amazing to consider - I guess it's completely mainstream now. You can thank Steve Bannon for that.

Here's one review - it's only up for a couple more days so you'll have to see it by by this weekend. I actually went and saw it a couple of weeks ago and I will post my own review as well.


Review: In ‘Heroes of the Fourth Turning,’ a Red-State Unicorn

An astonishing new play by Will Arbery risks a rare stage subject: Christian conservatism.

[Image: merlin_160767915_6e9f87f6-4b2a-47b3-9793...le=upscale]
From left: Zoë Winters, Jeb Kreager and Julia McDermott reuniting at a conservative college in “Heroes of the Fourth Turning.”Credit...Sara Krulwich/The New York Times
[Image: author-jesse-green-thumbLarge.jpg]
By Jesse Green

  • Oct. 7, 2019
They would not at first seem so different from you and me.

Teresa works in media and lives with an actress roommate. Kevin has a stultifying job but spends his off-hours watching “Portlandia” and devouring internet porn. Justin reads a lot of books and worries about the state of the country.
Yet unless you’re a hard-line Catholic conservative, you probably don’t have much in common with these people, who were undergrads together at Transfiguration College of Wyoming: an anti-abortion, anti-L.G.B.T. school where sex and cellphones (and federal funding) are forbidden.

And unless you live in an alternative theatrical universe programmed by David Mamet for The Heritage Foundation, you’ve probably never seen their like onstage.

That’s one of the things that makes Will Arbery’s “Heroes of the Fourth Turning,” which opened on Monday at Playwrights Horizons, something of a red-state unicorn. The astonishing new play explores the lives and ideas of conservatives with affection, understanding and deep knowledge — if not, ultimately, approval.

As such, it would be a welcome corrective almost regardless of its quality. When conservatives show up in contemporary plays, they are usually laughable blowhards, whining billionaires or troglodyte parents whose children scorn them. What use are they to anyone, even liberals who want to understand what they’re up against?

But Teresa (Zoë Winters), Kevin (John Zdrojeski) and Justin (Jeb Kreager) are serious, attractive, articulate young people — and troubled in ways we usually find sympathetic, at least in characters who didn’t vote for Donald J. Trump. (Kevin vomited after doing so.)

Mr. Arbery brings them together, seven years after graduation, for a reunion at Justin’s house; he has stayed in town and works at Transfiguration. Also at the party — which celebrates the appointment of their mentor, Gina Presson, as president of the school — is Gina’s daughter, Emily (Julia McDermott), who escaped Wyoming but has now returned with a debilitating mystery illness. During the course of a somewhat drunken dark night of the soul, the four friends catch up, argue, have crises and regroup.

Yet “Heroes of the Fourth Turning,” directed with nerves of steel by Danya Taymor, is no narcissistic midlife reunion dramedy like “The Big Chill.” The characters are still young enough to believe they can make significant changes in their lives — and in the life of their country, which they think and talk about constantly.

It’s no accident that Mr. Arbery sets the play just after the 2017 murder of Heather Heyer in Charlottesville, Va.; very much on everyone’s mind are the limits of the conservatism they inhaled and exalted at Transfiguration.

For Teresa, the limits come from within the movement: a movement weakened by craven “soy boys.” An Ann Coulter wannabe and self-professed Bannonite, she is a lightning-fast debater, a glib liar and a talented polemicist. (“Liberals are empathy addicts,” she says.) She sees herself as a hero of the “Fourth Turning” — the pseudoscientific theory that predicts political change on a generational timetable. As such, she is almost erotically fixated on the idea of near-term culture war, or literal war, as both rapture and ravishment.

Her three friends stake a variety of positions on the issues that feed Teresa’s outrage machine. Saintly Emily, who worked in a Chicago “pro-life women’s advocacy organization,” nevertheless counts among her friends an abortion-rights activist and — oh, the horror! — a drag queen. Justin, who packs a revolver and keeps a rifle handy, may argue that “proximity to L.G.B.T. is a threat to Christian children and families,” but he cares lovingly for Emily with no expectation of anything in return.

[Image: 07heroes3-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&au...le=upscale]

Michele Pawk, right, as the college’s new president, debates John Zdrojeski, an alumnus still seeking his place in the world, while Mr. Kreager and Ms. Winters look on.Credit...Sara Krulwich/The New York Times

And Kevin is the screw-up, the holy fool, struggling to locate a viable philosophy in the aftermath of the collision of his education and real life. “Why the heck do we have to love the Virgin Mary?” he asks, almost heretically. Also: Why can’t Christians test their faith by befriending the enemy instead of hating or avoiding him? And, most important: Why can’t he get a girlfriend?

The conflicts among the four friends, and eventually with the formidable Gina as well, are carried out in a series of arguments and arias the playwright aptly likens to a fugue. And though the play is peppered with theatrical interruptions — a song, a story, some ominous sounds, fits of aggression and feints of emotion — you will not find “Heroes of the Fourth Turning” very entertaining if you don’t believe in the dramatic potential of debate.

Ms. Taymor’s uncompromising production makes the strongest possible case for that potential. As the play takes place at night on the edge of the Wyoming wilderness, most of Laura Jellinek’s set is forbidding empty space; the lighting (by Isabella Byrd) is unrelievedly dark. Justin Ellington’s sensational sound design is almost another haunted voice in the fugue. In this ominous environment, Ms. Taymor moves the actors around like chess pieces, always threatening or defending.

She also encourages them to dig for the emotional realities beneath their discourse. We get a strong sense, for instance, of how mandated premarital celibacy has warped everyone’s temperament, especially Kevin’s; Mr. Zdrojeski, in a big breakthrough performance, makes the tightrope walk of pathos and ludicrousness thrilling to watch. And Mr. Kreager, though much more contained, likewise backfills Justin’s political positions with longings he can hardly name.

Indeed, the conflict between engagement and recusal that is at the heart of the characters’ questioning of conservatism is also at the heart of their unhappiness. Even Teresa worries that her wedding won’t be beautiful because she is “too private” with her love. And though Gina (Michele Pawk in a terrific cameo) is a charismatic and even poetic leader, you have to question, as you look into Emily’s eyes, what kind of a mother she’s been.

But insights into the devil are not the point here, even if Teresa calls Mr. Trump “a Golem molded from the clay of mass media” who has “come to save us all.” (Gina calls him “chemotherapy”: vile but necessary.) To Mr. Arbery, conservatives aren’t devils at all; their bad behavior is much like everyone else’s. So is their good behavior. Surely it’s not irrelevant that his father, Glenn Arbery, is the president of Wyoming Catholic College, a school apparently identical in philosophy and location to the play’s Transfiguration.

That autobiographical likeness — also a feature of Mr. Arbery’s “Plano” — gives “Heroes of the Fourth Turning” an aura of absolute authenticity. It may also give the play a slight aura of overindulgence; there are probably a few turns too many in its characters’ convolutions.

What makes it riveting anyway is its eagerness to admit, and to subtly criticize by juxtaposition, all arguments. When Kevin, confused and self-loathing though he may be, articulates the desire to “let two competing facts exist in the same space,” he might as well be speaking for the play. Without two competing facts, we wouldn’t have much of a drama — or a democracy.

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  Who is more religious? The Silent Generation or the Boomer Generation?
Posted by: AspieMillennial - 11-13-2019, 12:29 AM - Forum: Generations - Replies (10)

The early to mid Silent generation seems to be the most religious to me in a by the book liturgical sense and a spiritual sense too. I'm not sure why Boomers are considered more religious than the Silents. The religious Silents also seem more what some call fanatical about it than the religious Boomers. 

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  Clash of Civilizations Revisited and application to Generational Theory
Posted by: Teejay - 11-11-2019, 10:13 PM - Forum: Beyond America - Replies (11)

A bit of an introduction about my views on Generational Theory, I am Orthodox Strauss and Howe, the four-stroke model is solid and is validated by evidence. However, I have quite several disagreements with many of their interpretations.  For example; I see the American Civil War saeculum as a normal one, with a 4T running from 1850-1868/9 and a Civic Generation some of us who were on the old T4T forum, call the Gilded whose cohorts were from the late 1820s to late 1840s.

Also, I disagree with Neil Howe about the whole Middle East being on one saeculum, rather the Arab World is on one saeculum, while the Turko-Iranian world is another which Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Mongolia are on as well. Indeed, the subject of this post, will be my hypothesis that the world is made of different civilizations or ‘worlds’ each with their own individual saeculum.
 My main influence in this theory, is the book the Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington. My only disagreement with Huntington is how he defined the Civilizations or "worlds".

Because his definitions do not fit in how people in different parts of the world, consider as their world.

· People in the Indian sub-continent despite religious differences often see themselves as part of an Indian civilization or world.
· Russians, Georgians, Armenians, Mongols, Turkic and Iranian people, have a sense of regarding part of the same world which is called 'Eurasia'. Indeed there is a political ideology called Eurasianism which argues for the unity of these people in a world they call 'Eurasia'.
· Thais, Filipinos, Vietnamese,Malays and Indonesians do see themselves as part of a South-East Asian world.
· Latin Americans and people in the Caribbean islands see themselves as much a part of the West as Europeans and North Americans do.
· As well as people in the Arab lands, even peoples such as Somalis and Non-Arab Muslim West and East Africans consider themselves as part of the ‘Arab World’. Also, I think Non-Muslim populations as well.
· Sub-Saharan Africans see themselves being part of an African civilization or 'world', expect perhaps the Somali's, Mauritanians Sudanese and maybe the Ethiopians who see themselves as part of the 'Arab World'.
· Many orthodox Christians in the Balkans regard themselves as Westerners, this is true especially of the Romanians and Greeks. Indeed, every country in the Balkans bar Turkey, are either in the European Union or want to join it and have high levels of pro-European sentiment.

Therefore; I argue that they are no specific Orthodox Christian, Islamic, Hindu and Buddhist civilizations, rather civilizations more based on geographic and cultural boundaries, which are quite ancient. 

There is also what I have observed that movements wither cultural or political, spread across individual worlds, while not moving into neighboring 'worlds' . An example would be the Arab Spring, which spread into places on the other side of the Sahara Desert such as Mauritania, Sudan and Somalia. However, they did not spread into Kurdistan, Iran or Turkey, which in my opinion indicates these ‘worlds’ have their own individual saeculum’s. Other phenomenon include the Protests of 1968 in Europe, fall of the communist bloc in Eastern Europe in 1989, the wave of political activism and overthrow of a government in Indonesia throughout South-East Asia in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis. The Russian Revolution is another, which while there were copycat attempts in other European countries, they were short lived and easily suppressed. While both Iran and Turkey at the same time underwent trans-formative political revolutions. I argue all these phenomenon often spread like wildfire throughout a particular world, however very often don't spread into the neighboring worlds.

The West - Europe (minus Russia), North America, Latin America, The Carribean and Oceania. This region is Currently in a 4T which started between 2005 and 2009. However Ireland, along with probably the Ukraine and Belraus are on a different saeculum, currently in a 2T having started in the mid 2010's The borders of the West in Europe conforms pretty much to where Latin Christianity has long had at least a significance presence.

Indian World - India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, along with maybe Myanmar, Tibet and the Pashtun population of Afghanistan. Currently in a 4T having started c.2009.

Chinese World - China, minus regions inhabited by Mongols, Uighurs and probably the Tibetans. Currently in a 4T having started c.2009.

Japanese World - Japan and maybe Korea, currently in a late 3T having started in the early 2000s.

"Steppe World" or Eurasia - Turkey, Caucasus states, Iran, Central Asia, Russia, Uyghur inhabited regions of China, Mongolia and Mongol inhabited regions of China, along with probably Non-Pashtun regions of Afghanistan, Ukraine and Belarus. Currently in an early 2T, which started in the middle to late 2010s. These regions were before the Turkic expansion, dominated by speakers of Iranian languages, also Iranian culture and civilization has long been dominant throughout the region.

'South-East Asia’ – Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia, Philippines, East Timor. This region despite the different religions of the peoples, have a Hindu-Buddhist foundation, which Malays, Indonesians and perhaps Filipinos acknowledge. I estimate they are currently in a 3T which started sometime in the 2010s, their last 4T was approximately in the 1950s and 1960s, while their last awakening was in the 1990s and 2000s. 

‘Arab World’ – Arab countries of the Middle East, Israel, North Africa, also likely at least Somalia. Conforming nicely with where Afro-Asiatic languages are spoken, also I would not be surprised if Ethiopia is in this world as well. They have just entered their 4T in the last two to four years. With the last 4T being in the 1940s and 1950s, and their last 2T lasting from the late 1970s to late 1990s. That would make the Arab Spring a 3T/4T transitional event, like the European revolutions of 1848 were like.

‘African World’ – Central and Southern Africa, Given what I have researched about South Africa, they are likely currently in a 2T which started in this decade. There is evidence from a old T4T forum poster, that Nigeria could very well be in a 2T having started in the 2010s as well, with the start of Boko Haram insurgency.

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  Does the UK disprove the Fourth Turning?
Posted by: AspieMillennial - 11-11-2019, 10:41 AM - Forum: Turnings - Replies (14)

People say that the 3T is supposed to be about relaxing restrictions and having more freedoms but many more laws have been passed since 1997 to restrict freedom. Anti social behavior orders come to mind and so does the current knife control and past gun control efforts. This is also said to be a time of individualism. Yet anti social behavior orders and the very stringent laws passed are against the individual.

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  The Beatles: Artist Lennon vs. Boomer McCartney
Posted by: Hintergrund - 11-11-2019, 06:57 AM - Forum: Society and Culture - Replies (1)

Having a Beatles book, I remembered a quote by John Lennon about drugs: He said that Paul started to take them later than he (John) did - but made a big fuss out of it. Typical for a Boomer to do so. The Silents had the ideas for the counter-culture, but the Boomers were more people and shouted much louder.

The differences between Artists and "Prophets" also explain why the band fell apart later. It wasn't just "creative differences".

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  Thoughts from the Russian Federation
Posted by: Isoko - 11-09-2019, 06:17 PM - Forum: The Future - Replies (43)

Hi guys, 

I'm a British guy who lives in Russia and I thought I'd share some thoughts on what is happening here and in Europe. 

From a generational perspective over here in Russia, I would say this country is in the midst of a 2T. Right now there is at least four generational divides and I think it beats anything even Strauss and Howe could come up with. 

To start with we have the 50+ crowd which is nostalgic for the USSR and actually regret it's demise. Very nice people and true believers in the internationale, that is everyone on the earth is a comrade. They were taught mainly friendship of the nations and stick to it.

Then you have the 35+ crowd who remember the collapse of the Soviet Union and the 1998 financial crisis. They seem to be sympathetic to Putinism and would prefer a stronger Russia. Good people but they do feel that America is being threatening to Russia and don't like it. 

Then you have the 20+ crowd and they are the group that is the most anti putin. They have a very naive view of the West, thinking it to be a great paradise and that Russia must become like the West in order to succeed. However most of them are still more socially Conservative then Western millennials and would prefer not to have open borders or gay marriage. They don't like Putinism though and feel it alienates Russia. 

Then you have the children and they are the next patriotic generation, to put it mildly. They believe that Russia is going to be a great country and feel very patriotic to the motherland. 

So my own assessment about Russia is that the older generation who still like Communism have no say anymore and usually stick with the status quo or vote for the Commies. 

The 35ers tend to be more pragmatic. They support Putinism to an extent but would prefer to have better relations with the West. 

The 20s want a new Russia altogether. They remember as kids the hard 90s and want freedom, democracy, the usual. That said not all of them do and some of them think the west is a crazy basket case. I do know that when Angela Merkel let in all those refugees, the Russian youth thought she had gone mad. So I wouldn't say its a left wing Liberal movement but more a weird sort of centrism. 

The kids are I think a future right wing generation who will embrace some form of putinism although not be hostile to the West. Just a sort of our country is great now let's do business. 

Anyway overall the attitudes of Russians is friendly to Europe, dislike of America (for obvious reasons) and that is in general about it. Whatever happens though, I think that Putin has left a very big mark on this nation and the future of Russian politics will have some basis for the decisions he has made. If I was to compare him to someone, I'd say St. Olga of Kiev. She laid down the foundations of orthodox christianity in a Russia but it was her grandson that fully converted the nation, not her son. Putin is sort of like that. He's planted the seeds of this Russian revival and whilst the young generation want changes, the desire I think for Russia to be a great power will remain. If they continue on some form of Putinism but on a more friendlier scale, they could potentially become the next super power at the end of the century, after China. No one believes it but I see the seeds are there.

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  Boomers and Millennials: Oops!
Posted by: Anthony '58 - 11-09-2019, 01:24 PM - Forum: Generations - Replies (44)

S&H said that they would get on awesomely well.

Actually, they are getting on awfully rotten.

What happened?

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  Hybrid types
Posted by: Hintergrund - 11-08-2019, 09:14 AM - Forum: Generations - Replies (20)

(Had the idea during a PM conversation with @taramarie.)

As we know, people have characters typical for their generation not because of astrological influence, but because of the events that shaped them.

I'm thinking especially of the recessive Archetypes: Nomads and Artists.

Nomads are shaped by their messy, unprotected childhood and adults who are too incompetent to handle big events (or even not that big events).

Artists are shaped by overprotective parents, esp. mothers because the fathers are absent.

Maybe that's typical in the Anglosphere, but in continental Europe, there are exceptions because of the war.

That's why we have a Silent ("War-children") generation that was a typical Artist generation because their numbers are small, they were stuck between elder Heroes and younger "Prophets" - but in their childhood, they went through a big mess, like Nomads.

OTOH, not only there many people from Generation X grew up with single mothers, so while they're still stuck between elder "Prophets" and younger Heroes, they may be more artistically inclined and neurotic as usual for Nomads, and more like Artists in that regard.

We really should try to sort this out - find out which part of their characters was caused by their influences that made them Nomad- or Artist-like.

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