American High, 1T:

The Lone Ranger
I Love Lucy
The Adventures of Ozzie & Harriet
Father Knows Best
The Honeymooners
Leave It To Beaver
The Donna Reed Show
Mister Ed
Dennis the Menace
The Twilight Zone

Consciousness Revolution, 2T:

Bewitched
Star Trek
The Mary Tyler Moore Show
All in the Family
Sanford and Son
M*A*S*H
Happy Days
The Jeffersons
Charlie’s Angels
Three’s Company

Culture Wars and Long Boom, 3T:

The Cosby Show
The Golden Girls
Roseanne
Seinfeld
Home Improvement
The X-Files
Friends 
Everybody Loves Raymond
Will and Grace
The Sopranos

Millennial Crisis, 4T:

Mad Men
The Big Bang Theory
Breaking Bad
Modern Family
The Walking Dead
Game of Thrones
Orange is the New Black
True Detective
Stranger Things
Westworld

I'll delete this whenever I figure it out, but how do you stick a screenshot directly into your post?  I set up a google photo account and linking to that doesn't work through the [img] code.  

Thanks for any help...

I was tired of hearing everyone attacking Millennial non-voting as if it was some anomaly and broke out the numbers, national election by national election.  I had to tweak the timings a little bit on the generational starts to make sure each election captured the exact same ages for each generation.  This put the start years at:

Boomers-1944
Gen X-1964
Millennials-1984

Results:

Millennials and Boomers started off about the same, then Millennials DID comparatively dip in the midterms (though that is offset in 2010 by an overall turnout dip that explains the difference).  The 2016 election, however, was the first-time Millennials turned out at a higher rate than the other generations and based on 2018 it looks likely for that trend to be expanding.  Millennials as a civic generation that will rebuild community is now CORROBORATED by voting turnout and not refuted by it.


  Generational Voting Comparison.xlsx (Size: 20.23 KB / Downloads: 1)

The Gray Champion is something I keep coming back to, and at root its just a fun guessing game.  

I believe there will be one President in between Trump and the first Millennial President, that person most likely being the Gray Champion.

My top 5:

1. Michael Bloomberg
2. Hillary Clinton
3. Joe Biden
4. Mitt Romney
5. Elizabeth Warren

Can I change my username to "Wayfarer"? Please.

Stemming from Malcolm Gladwell's "Outliers" and the idea that smaller cohorts within a larger age group can have outsized control/impact, I applied this to the major generations and think there is something to it (at least for the Boomers and Millenials).  

The eye-popping fact that led me to this thinking:  every American President, except for Obama, since 1992 was born in 1946.


I would define the Control Cohort as the earliest core group within a generation.  This group gets outsize control due to the increased advantages they get from entering the market as the last generation is leaving and so more openings are available, and how those benefits over a life compound.  Other recurrences of this would be the Robber Barons during the Gilded Age and Steve Jobs / Bill Gates Silicon Valley giants.

For the Boomers this would be 1946-1949. For the Millennials 1984-1987.  The first year of the generation seems to have the most clearly dominant actors of any year of the generation.

Boomer evidence-nearly every major political actor of the generation:

1946-Bill Clinton/ George W. Bush/Donald Trump
         
1947-Hillary Clinton/ Mitt Romney/Dan Quayle/Arnold Schwartzenneger

1948-Al Gore/ Howard Dean

1949-John Boehner/ Elizabeth Warren

Early Millennial Evidence (outside of politics mainly):

1984-Lebron James, Mark Zuckerberg, Ezra Klein, Connor Lamb, Ben Shapiro


How is this useful?  I would predict the first Millennial President would be born in 1984 and will likely take office by 2028 so Connor Lamb 2028?  Shapiro?

And if a Boomer wins in 2020 this would give Warren the edge.

Let me know what you think and list any others you find that should be included.

I've been working on the various strands of this for several years now, and a lot of the inspiration for this Political Cycle Theory comes from this Vox Article about political realignments. The research-based model it puts forth shows that in the entirety of American history the "political clock" has always moved clockwise.  

Here's my simplification of the model:



Also want to copy over the established "party eras" in American history as they are in-line with this:

Four Major Eras of American Political Parties

• Era of the Democrats 1800-1860. Federalist disappeared by 1816. ...
  
• Era of the Republicans 1860-1932. Lincoln helped the Republicans jump from 3rd party to major party.
  
• Return of the Democrats 1932-1968. Great depression reached the Republicans Party.
  
• The Start of a New Era 1968-Present.
  

I don't really see "Homeland" or "New Adaptive" sticking as the official name for the next Artist generation.  Best I've heard it called is "iGen", but what do y'all think?

We know that civic generations should be preoccupied with masculinity and have a disdain for female influence in politics. Do you see any signs this is happening? I don't

There are signs that millennials are more in favour in some aspects of traditional masculinity. More guys wear beards than it used to be the case in early 2000s. There have been some movies where tough men are portrayed in positive light rather than as outcasts and bandits. But in general, feminism is stronger than ever. Furthermore, millennial men are often stereotyped as "snowflakes". It's the ladies who flex their biceps on Instagram!

I suspect the 2030s won't be nearly as male-fixated as the previous 1T was. It could even be a feminist-oriented decade. Then, the 2T would be a rebellion against millennial mother figures rather than dads as the previous time.

Apparently Trump has more flunkies (a nasty way of looking at it, but the GOP is an authoritarian cadre party; cadre parties have flunkies and not independent actors) in the Senate, but he has lost the House. A bunch of states have ditched Republican governors from the Tea Party era.

Effects on the presidential election: Republicans will have no help from Democratic Governors in some states that Trump won in 2016. Trump will have to win fair and square, and if his approval levels result in poor electoral numbers, he will not win.

Only eleven Democrats will be up for re-election in 2020 in the Senate, and only two will be in a state that Donald Trump won in 2016. Doug Jones, the incumbent Senator from Alabama, won under freakish circumstances unlikely to be repeated. The other incumbent Senator running for re-election in a state that Trump won in 2016 will be Gary Peters in Michigan -- and he won against the 2014 Republican wave, which says more about Michigan. On the other side, Susan Collins (R, Maine) has probably doomed her Senate career in a state that looks hostile to Trump, and Corey Gardner (R, Colorado) is in a state hostile to Trump after having barely won in a wave year. Also, Arizona has an appointed Senator... appointed incumbents tend to have trouble.

There will be relatively few gubernatorial races -- eleven.

The Presidential election will be all up to Donald Trump. Will he moderate? Will he compromise? I doubt it. We know his personality, and basic personalities  rarely change at his age except as the result of dementia. I have never seen dementia make any person more pleasant to be around.