I noticed thread views are not using unique IP hits.  Would it not be better to only count unique hits?  Any users could inflate views to threads by simply spam-clicking.  I don't think it would be that hard.  It would also give an honest account of viewership.

a suggestion

I decided this belongs in Turnings, not Generations, because it looks at all generations in the Fourth Turning.


Years ago, well over a decade ago, I had a web site called “Generation Watch” where I blogged about current events and news stories from a generations perspective. I had a page there for news story submissions where I listed the sorts of patterns and trends to expect of each generation, in both the Third and Fourth Turnings. The text was cribbed from The Fourth Turning by Strauss and Howe.

I moved that page to another location and was thinking I would revisit the observations and apply them to the current social era – about halfway through the Fourth Turning with the climax still ahead. Here’s the link-

http://home.mindspring.com/~saecularpage...okFor.html

I would love to hear responses about what people on this forum think the authors got right or wrong, or whether or not the list I put together accurately reflects their theory.

Was 911 and the following affect on American culture along with the several wars after 911 and the change in national mood part of the Crisis portion of this saeculum we are now in?

If not, why? 

If you think it was, let's discuss exactly how it was part of this Crisis period along with the 2008 financial crisis.  I come from a place these two things have composed the Crisis that is on the way out.  Feel free to disagree but please don't say the same things that have been said over and over.  Either 911 was just a random thing that happened and was no part of the Crisis or it WAS part of the Crisis and some people's yearly brackets for Turnings need to be adjusted by half a decade or so.

WASHINGTON — Riding in a motorcade in Lima, Peru, shortly after the 2016 election, President Barack Obama was struggling to understand Donald J. Trump’s victory.

“What if we were wrong?” he asked aides riding with him in the armored presidential limousine.

He had read a column asserting that liberals had forgotten how important identity was to people and had promoted an empty cosmopolitan globalism that made many feel left behind. “Maybe we pushed too far,” Mr. Obama said. “Maybe people just want to fall back into their tribe.”

His aides reassured him that he still would have won had he been able to run for another term and that the next generation had more in common with him than with Mr. Trump. Mr. Obama, the first black man elected president, did not seem convinced. “Sometimes I wonder whether I was 10 or 20 years too early,” he said.

In the weeks after Mr. Trump’s election, Mr. Obama went through multiple emotional stages, according to a new book by his longtime adviser Benjamin J. Rhodes. At times, the departing president took the long view, at other points, he flashed anger. He called Mr. Trump a “cartoon” figure who cared more about his crowd sizes than any particular policy. And he expressed rare self-doubt, wondering whether he had misjudged his own influence on American history.

Set to be published next week by Random House, Mr. Rhodes’s memoir, “The World as It Is,” offers a peek into Mr. Obama’s tightly sealed inner sanctum from the perspective of one of the few people who saw him up close through all eight years of his presidency. Few moments shook Mr. Obama more than the decision by voters to replace him with a candidate who had questioned his very birth.

Mr. Rhodes served as Mr. Obama’s deputy national security adviser through some of the most consequential points of his presidency, including decisions to authorize the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, send more troops to Afghanistan, pull most troops out of Iraq, restore diplomatic relations with Cuba, seal a nuclear agreement with Iran, intervene militarily in Libya and refuse to intervene militarily in Syria.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/30/us/po...hodes.html

I've no idea how many reading this are spanning their attention to popular cinema.  But Marvel is pumping out archetypes with great precision.  Captain America is a G.I. Hero coming from the WWII era.  Born in 1918, he's the epitome of the G.I. Hero archetype.  He just wants to do the right thing.  Denied service due to poor health, he is imbued with a secret serum making him a powerful soldier.  If you saw Captain America: The First Avenger we get a really good look at that generation.  They attend the Stark Expo where the future is within the grasp of the ordinary American through the power of technology.  This is the generation that solved the great crises of their time and the sky was the limit.

At the end of the war, Cap goes down in a plane and is frozen in ice for about 70 years, discovered in our modern era.  A man out of time. 

As with most Marvel characters, the film score assigns little bits of of musical theme which offers the different heroes their unique spot on the team.  I noticed in the film Avengers: Infinity War they gave a brief moment of Cap's theme to SPIDER-MAN!  It didn't strike me at first.  But after following that thread, it became apparent to me Spidey is the new Captain America.  He's the new Hero archetype - a Millennial to Cap's G.I..  Then I followed that into Spider-Man: Homecoming and noticed even more superlatives concerning the world of Spider-Man.  Peter's school is brand new.  All the kids in the school are so far beyond well-behaved and straight-edged.  None of them are drinking or doing drugs, they are not on inner quests of self discovery, Spidey swings through neighborhoods that are reminiscent of the G.I. homefronts with their postage-stamp lawns (albeit larger and more opulent) and there is a general optimism not seen in today's plethora of dystopia.

The fact Spidey becomes an Avenger is no small thing.  He is LITERALLY christened shoulder-to-shoulder by resident Boomer Iron Man.  In any other world or circumstance but quasi science fiction, we could never have two residual Hero archetypes existing at the same time.  Steve Rogers and that 'greatest generation' is returning right before our eyes with the preeminent Millenial/Artist Peter Parker.  The christening of Spider-Man could be a fictional symbol that the Hero has, in fact, returned and with the same M.O. as the WWII generation.

Peter gets out of school and rushes out to get his suit on to go web slinging.  I was shocked when I actually paid attention the ALLEY where he changes into his uniform is pretty much a clean space - no drunks or druggies, no sludge on the ground or walls.... and this hearkens back to Steve fighting the bully in THAT alley........ same cleanliness.  Not like we picture an ALLEY in NYC today.  The streets of Steve Rogers in the 1940s are clean and swept by business owners, people are dressed in good clothes to go out on those streets, and the same is true in the Queens we see in Homecoming.  The pattern is beginning to repeat.  This does not mean there are not filthy alleys (lol) only that the same collective unconscious is swinging around again: a desire for order, cleanliness, purity, heroism at cost of self, a time when institutions are becoming positive arbiters of the future, when community is coalescing again, et al.

I'm a strong believer we see things in popular media far before we see it in real life.  I just thought it was a great parallel between Steve and Peter as portrayed in the films.  Not to mention Steve is probably gonna die soon which leaves Peter to pick up that clean-cut positivity and good-natured spirit we all need and know arrives with the new Hero archetype.

Hello, I am doing research and writing about the Hero genre in film and even popular culture which ushered in the Millennial generation of the 21st Century.

I cannot recall if discussion of Jung's Collective Unconscious is found in the Generations book or The 4th Turning or if I heard the authors speak about it in their talks/lectures.  It simply means the manifestation of the archetype is something which exists outside of our timespace.  It is universal.  No matter what happened, there would be the idea of or need for these cycles and archetypes among modern man. 

In the middle of a Nomad cycle, there appear films sagas: Lord of the Rings, The Matrix, even Star Wars prequels: in the years just before and just after the Crisis period beginning in 2001.  These Heroic films deal with complex OR very simple Hero archetypes who are somehow chosen by an unknown Force to fulfill a destiny.  It seems like there is a calling of the archetype that builds into fruition and along with the growth and development of the archetype; possibly bringing it to pass even?  Who knows what forces are working in the unknown? 

Through the beginnings of Crisis, we see what began very humbly with the Marvel Cinematic franchise.  A shared world of Superheroes and Supervillains of all kinds, battling every problem imaginable by uniting disparate forces from various walks to come together and WIN.  Is it any wonder these films hold such fascination?  A full decade later, Marvel Cinema is still at the very top of Hollywood; no one is tired.  These Heroes are now more specific.  We can see ourselves in them.  They are no longer in a computer Matrix or Galaxy Far away.  

These will eventually die out.  However, while struck in the right chord with historical sways, the theme can strike hard and go long periods without fatigue or rest.  The Hero archetype is just now coming to mid-life, they are gaining some power over their surroundings, and we expect them to save us.  That's what they are supposed to do.  We have been primed for this message.  The Heroes themselves have been primed for this message.  The Force guides all?

If anyone is studying the Jungian connection with S&H, or like the Hero archetype or Marvel (lol) respond

Hi, intro, I'm new and just joined today.  Any help with where things happen here is appreciated.  I simply popped into this area because it looked like where the content I was posting would belong.

Surely, speculation about the end of the current bracket has been discussed here. I've not seen anything in the past posts. So, hopefully this is to see if anyone is out there. The authors don't view the Crisis 4T as until 2008. Based on the end bracket of the Heroes (supposedly 2005) it seems right to bracket the Crisis on a more 2001 (9-11) model instead of the financial crash of 2008. What does anyone think? And after THIS, perhaps the location of the 1st Turning High might become more apparent.

The title to this thread says it all. Roughly 50 years ago it was widely assumed that all the advanced technology we today kneel at the feet of but then was still in its infancy if it had arrived at all, would lead us toward a society of increased leisure time. By the time we reached the year 2000 it was predicted that the average work week would be about 30 hours. It is painfully obvious that it hasn't worked out that way. Between the years 1973 and 1990 Americans lost on average some 40 percent of previous leisure time. Here i propose a thoughtful discussion of what transpired during that 17 year interval to make liars of all those futurists who at the time were nearly unanimous in prediction the leisure society. And will we ever that society of increase leisure which we were once all but promised?

Since not only did 9/11 not cause the Culture Wars to wind down, but the Culture Wars have actually ramped up since then (Lawrence vs. Texas, Obergefell v. Hodges,  "partial-birth abortion," the continuing drive to defund Planned Parenthood), I theorize that with 9/11 began a unique hybrid 3T-4T, which I expect will end with a financial catastrophe in most likely October 2019 (something I have been predicting for literally two decades), leaving us in a pure 4T, which could commence as early as this November, if "The Map" holds up and the Republicans get to 60 seats to Senate, or to 59 and the Republicans can induce Maine independent Angus King, who currently caucuses with the Democrats, to cross the aisle.

I don't see a military related thread, so I'll start one up here.

Current 4 Star generals and admirals are still overwhelmingly Boomer:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ac...r_officers


Nakasone b. 1963 (USA: US Cyber Command)
McDrew b. 1960 (USAF)
Abrams b. 1960 (USA)
Perna b. 1960 (USA)
Richardson b. 1960 (USN: CNO)
Grady? Commissioned ROTC 1984 (USN)
Raymond? Comm. (ROTC?) 1984 (USAF)
Everhart II b. 1961 (USAF)
O'Shaughnessy b. 1964 (USAF)
Wolters b. 1961 (USAF)
Michel b. 1963 (USCG)
Giror b. 1960 (PHS)

...but there are 4 Boomers on the cusp on Xer (1960), 2 Xers on the cusp of Boomer (1961), and (probably) 5 Xers (1962 or later) out of 41 (including the US Coast Guard and Public Health Service). On 1960 cohort is Chief of Naval Operations (the oversimplify, the head of the Navy), and an Xer commands Cyber Command.



Resurrected from the old 4TF:

http://generationaldynamics.com/tftarchive/4068-S-amp-H-s-Theory-Regarding-War-amp-the-Military-00001.htm