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(12-02-2016, 08:29 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Good point. Although, when I do the search, the first result is "Stratfor has 11 chilling predictions for what the world will look like a decade from now".
Does this mean that India becomes the next superpower?
If you thought a US-USSR enmity was ugly, then wait until you see a Delhi-Jakarta-Tokyo axis of the world's three largest democracies hostile to a fascistic America. Likely flashpoints of any such conflict will be Australia and the Philippines. Just imagine what the Japanese will do to an American government that mistreats Japanese-Americans in Hawaii or the West Coast.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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12-04-2016, 10:51 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2016, 12:44 AM by Eric the Green.)
(12-02-2016, 06:43 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Here's an experiment everyone can do at home. Google "the next ten years."
The most interesting outcome of the experiment is what the search does not return. There are very few pessimistic reports or other writings when this search is done. Instead, there will be the mother of all AI booms. robots will diagnose your illnesses (ah, what a boon for medical care cost cutting), cancer will be cured, everyone will join Thomas L. Friedman's "plugged in world" and become a member of "the electronic herd," all the cars, small trucks, SUVs and semis will self drive making the roads safer than the rails or even safer than flying, there will be a zillion new millionaires made from the private space industry, and so on. Nary a prognostication of disaster.
You know what they say when the herd are all "jumping into the market" so to speak. In this case, the market is optimism and linear thinking. Meanwhile, all the blind pilots, flying through the clouds of harsh reality, are en route to the inevitable sudden mid air collision with destiny.
I thoroughly agree.
I think there is an optimistic scenario, but it 1) has nothing to do with all these silly gismos and 2) depends on us waking up from our current political nightmare, which is anything but certain at this point.
Still, from the cosmic perspective, I'll probably stick to my prediction of a huge Democratic congressional victory in 2022 and a Democratic president elected in 2024-- with very heavy consequences; both for reform, revolution and bloody resistance to same, with the outcome decided pretty quickly by 2028. Secessions are also quite possible in these years; the cyclic return of the Civil War.
And internationally, the irresponsibility of a Trump administration will only lead to war, but probably down the road a few years, and with American involvement coming down in those same 4 years after 2024. It will be quite a climax to this 4T.
That's what it looks like to me now, just reading the signs; but it depends on how things go, of course.
If Middle America continues on its downward spiral into irretrievable prejudice and ignorance, then it has the power to sink America permanently into banana republic status. This means that the scenario brower mentions of attack on the USA by foreign powers against a fascistic America on the loose worldwide, is quite likely. It will be the exact reverse of Trump's promise, and perhaps the end of the United States of America.
I know Mr. X that you also predict nuclear holocaust, but I will not go that far.
America may be going stupid, but the rest of the world may not be.
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(12-04-2016, 10:51 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-02-2016, 06:43 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Here's an experiment everyone can do at home. Google "the next ten years."
The most interesting outcome of the experiment is what the search does not return. There are very few pessimistic reports or other writings when this search is done. Instead, there will be the mother of all AI booms. robots will diagnose your illnesses (ah, what a boon for medical care cost cutting), cancer will be cured, everyone will join Thomas L. Friedman's "plugged in world" and become a member of "the electronic herd," all the cars, small trucks, SUVs and semis will self drive making the roads safer than the rails or even safer than flying, there will be a zillion new millionaires made from the private space industry, and so on. Nary a prognostication of disaster.
You know what they say when the herd are all "jumping into the market" so to speak. In this case, the market is optimism and linear thinking. Meanwhile, all the blind pilots, flying through the clouds of harsh reality, are en route to the inevitable sudden mid air collision with destiny.
I thoroughly agree.
I think there is an optimistic scenario, but it 1) has nothing to do with all these silly gismos and 2) depends on us waking up from our current political nightmare, which is anything but certain at this point.
Still, from the cosmic perspective, I'll probably stick to my prediction of a huge Democratic congressional victory in 2022 and a Democratic president elected in 2024-- with very heavy consequences; both for reform, revolution and bloody resistance to same, with the outcome decided pretty quickly by 2028. Secessions are also quite possible in these years; the cyclic return of the Civil War.
And internationally, the irresponsibility of a Trump administration will only lead to war, but probably down the road a few years, and with American involvement coming down in those same 4 years after 2024. It will be quite a climax to this 4T.
That's what it looks like to me now, just reading the signs; but it depends on how things go, of course.
If Middle America continues on its downward spiral into irretrievable prejudice and ignorance, then it has the power to sink America permanently into banana republic status. This means that the scenario Brower mentions of attack on the USA by foreign powers against a fascistic America on the loose worldwide, is quite likely. It will be the exact reverse of Trump's promise, and perhaps the end of the United States of America.
I know Mr. X that you also predict nuclear holocaust, but I will not go that far.
America may be going stupid, but the rest of the world may not be.
There is absolutely no technological miracle that will get America out of its political and economic mess. We got the Internet, and it may have done more to destroy jobs than create them. Cutting costs can make things more affordable, but if people can't buy what remains available at lower prices, the cost-savings are moot. The Internet may have made information more easily accessible, but it has also made disinformation more available. Now consider 3D printing which will make it possible to make almost any small object from an automobile part to a fishing lure. This could kill much of the retail business and small-scale manufacturing... and the jobs.
One man's cost is another man's living. One man's profit may go far beyond a living. The small businessman's profit was his living. So what do we get? An economic order that creates unbelievable wealth for a few yet relegates the masses to the living standards of either early capitalism or the agrarian age? Anyone with an appreciable mind knows of the ideology that flourished before the consumer-driven economy of modern capitalism: Marxism.
Back to the Internet. It is a wonderful way in which to disseminate knowledge and give people outside of academia the means of sharing in the delights of the intellectual life. It is also a tool of spreading disinformation. People found their way to the Infernal State through the Internet. The Trump victory and what looks like the consolidation of a single-Party system in America would have been impossible without the capacity of the Internet to pass right-wing memes with no filter of criticism. Even something so horrid as Holocaust denial can flourish on the Web. People who recognize Donald Trump as a vicious and untrustworthy demagogue had to deal with the perceived menace on a more primitive one-to-one method. We lost.
I expect living standards to crater in America. I expect the Trump Administration and its Congressional stooges (already controlled by corporate lobbyists for two years) to use the power of the government to enrich economic elites at the expense of everyone else. Any big infrastructure projects will be full of graft and could well be financed in part by practically giving away what is desirable in the private sector to monopolistic profiteers.
The gross incompetence and corruption of the Trump administration will not bring it down. A bungled war or an economic collapse will not have the vote of no confidence as a means of forcing a new election. Back in 1787 Americans rejected a parliament because of their experiences with the British parliament of the time. The Canadians chose to imitate the British parliament because it by then worked well after some significant reforms (like weeding out the 'rotten boroughs'.
Donald Trump thinks like more like the despotic kings who unleashed war as a response to a personal slight than like a constitutional-era politician. I can see great dangers in such. So have a government change that the President dislikes, and out Fuhrer might declare a war in a rage. The elites will see only the profits of war production; the common man will be drafted to wage war and come back in body bags.
At the end of this Crisis we will need -- no matter what the final military and economic situation -- a major restructuring of the political system. We may need a new Constitution to shore up a democratic system that had seems that ruthless people have driven heavy equipment through. We will need to make great changes in the educational system so that it gives people the civil courage to reject bigotry and that it teaches people the habit of seeking out unvarnished truth. It is worth remembering that the well-educated people of identifiable minorities in America voted strongly against Donald Trump.*
To put things into perspective, "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof". Any assault on conventional wisdom must have solid evidence contradicting what the old paradigms were. Wise people have criteria for deciding that new propositions of reality are valid or are cranky nonsense. Evolution and relativity violated conventional wisdom in their day, and now only cranks and fools reject evolution and relativity. Darwin and Einstein could bring Humanity only so far in their understanding of the universe; further advances are sophisticated refinements in knowledge.
We will need to shore up education. "Back to the liberal arts in undergraduate education" implies that the potential leaders need some expansion in more things than intellectual prowess -- like finding objects of loyalty other than consumerism, pop culture, sex, bureaucratic power, and connections to the Great and Powerful. We need to ensure at least another year or two of formal education as the norm, part of that education including economics. psychology, and philosophy. That's part of the trend back toward liberal education. We need to establish a populace less gullible and more rational. Were there easy solutions to tough problems, then those solutions would have long been in place. People need to be able to sort truth from attractive falsehoods.
* I have a conjecture on why this was so. Confidence artists as a rule work best upon people of similar culture. There usually is some initial distrust between people with differences, but most of us can judge how trustworthy people with an obvious difference, like ethnicity or religion, can start deciding that someone is basically honest and reliable. All that one needs do is a little conversation. Honest people are consistent in what they say; dishonest people start saying things that contradict.
Confidence artists are able to exploit shared similarities of interest and life as a way of breaking the ice. It's telling that one of the biggest SEC offices for dealing with securities fraud is in Salt Lake City... because the con artists there are largely Mormons who can put their intended victims at ease by talking about the shared culture of Mormonism (creating an illusion of credibility) before conning someone into a pump-and-dump fraud. Bernie Madoff's victim list is largely Jewish. Prosperity-cult churches divide heavily on lines of ethnicity. Donald Trump could not pull his con on well-educated people unless they were white and nominally Christian, but could really pull the con on under-educated white people who admire Big Business but know little about Big Business, find glitz impressive instead of empty, and like being told that they too can be like kings. Poor blacks and Hispanics could never fall for such stuff.
Donald Trump told people what they wanted to hear, and that gave him adequate credibility to people unwilling to check the validity of his statements. People not of his culture would never let him get away with it.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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Quote:Throughout his time in public life, Donald Trump has never been truth-oriented, but last week the president-elect told a rather specific lie: “I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally.” This was a demonstrable falsehood, and neither Trump nor any of his allies have been able to bolster the bogus claim with evidence.
So instead, Team Trump has apparently embraced a post-modern debate about the inherent value and meaning of truth.
One pro-Trump pundit argued last week, for example, that there’s “no such thing” as facts anymore. Corey Lewandowski added that American voters “understood that sometimes, when you have a conversation with people, whether it’s around the dinner table or at a bar, you’re going to say things, and sometimes you don’t have all the facts to back it up.”
Outgoing RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, who’ll soon become the White House chief of staff, was asked on CBS’s “Face the Nation” yesterday about Trump lying about voter fraud. Priebus, without proof, said it’s “possible” that millions of illegal ballots were cast. When host John Dickerson noted that there is no evidence to support such a claim, Priebus responded, “I think the president-elect is someone who has pushed the envelope and caused people to think in this country.”
...On ABC’s “This Week,” George Stephanopoulos asked Vice President-elect Mike Pence about Trump’s lie, and Pence pointed to a Pew Research Center report as proof to bolster the bogus claim. Given that the Pew report doesn’t support the claim at all, the incoming VP defended a lie with a lie.
Pence then tried to change the subject, which led to this exchange:
Quote:STEPHANPOULOS: [C]an you provide any evidence to back up that statement?
PENCE; Well, look, I think he’s expressed his opinion on that. And he’s entitled to express his opinion on that. And I think the American people find it very refreshing that they have a president who will tell them what’s on his mind.
This is no small moment. Americans are being told that their incoming president lied to them, got caught, and this is somehow a positive development that should inspire confidence in our reality-challenged leader.
Indeed, Pence’s mind-numbing appearance yesterday was practically Orwellian. Reminded that Trump made a false statement about factual evidence, Pence characterized it as an “opinion” – which doesn’t make any sense since there’s nothing subjective about Trump lying about the scope of voter fraud. Urged to defend Trump’s falsehood with facts, Pence tried to characterize lying as “refreshing.”
Forget politics for a moment. There’s simply nothing sane about approaching reality this way.
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/...refreshing
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This is not going to be a train wreck. This is multiple train wrecks.
We have someone who believes that reality is a choice. Reality is not a choice. It's simply there, whether one likes it or doesn't.
Defying reality has never had good results.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(12-05-2016, 12:35 PM)gabrielle Wrote: http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/...refreshing
So how come claims about millions of illegal voters without proof are "bogus" but conspiracy theories about voting machine manipulation without proof are perfectly all right?
Oh, right, because MSNBC is populated by partisan hacks like Maddow.
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(12-05-2016, 11:26 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: (12-05-2016, 12:35 PM)gabrielle Wrote: http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/...refreshing
So how come claims about millions of illegal voters without proof are "bogus" but conspiracy theories about voting machine manipulation without proof are perfectly all right?
Oh, right, because MSNBC is populated by partisan hacks like Maddow.
In the Trump case, he just blurted out an unsupported comment, and left it there as a factoid of truthiness. In the case of the machines possibly being manipulated, we have foreigners directly intervening in the election process (some have admitted it proudly) and machines ripe for manipulation. Even at that, no one is saying it happened, just that it should be checked. If Trump has some potential fraud to investigate, that should be checked too ... but, apparently, he doesn't.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk...8#comments
Quote:He wasn’t sure how these people found his number.
“Nothing that says they’re gonna kill me, but, you know, you better keep your eye on your kids,” Jones said later on MSNBC. “We know what car you drive. Things along those lines.”
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(12-05-2016, 11:26 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: (12-05-2016, 12:35 PM)gabrielle Wrote: http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/...refreshing
So how come claims about millions of illegal voters without proof are "bogus" but conspiracy theories about voting machine manipulation without proof are perfectly all right?
Oh, right, because MSNBC is populated by partisan hacks like Maddow.
It seems reasonable to me to hold the president, or president-elect, to a high standard.
"But there's a difference between error and dishonesty, and it's not a trivial difference." - Ben Greenman
"Relax, it'll be all right, and by that I mean it will first get worse."
"How was I supposed to know that there'd be consequences for my actions?" - Gina Linetti
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(12-06-2016, 06:01 PM)David Horn Wrote: (12-05-2016, 11:26 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: (12-05-2016, 12:35 PM)gabrielle Wrote: http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/...refreshing
So how come claims about millions of illegal voters without proof are "bogus" but conspiracy theories about voting machine manipulation without proof are perfectly all right?
Oh, right, because MSNBC is populated by partisan hacks like Maddow.
In the Trump case, he just blurted out an unsupported comment, and left it there as a factoid of truthiness. In the case of the machines possibly being manipulated, we have foreigners directly intervening in the election process (some have admitted it proudly) and machines ripe for manipulation. Even at that, no one is saying it happened, just that it should be checked. If Trump has some potential fraud to investigate, that should be checked too ... but, apparently, he doesn't.
There are plenty of documented cases of noncitizens being registered and voting. Recounts can't catch those cases because ballots are anonymous by that point. That's why Republicans have to use preventative measures, like requiring actual proof of citizenship for registration and ID at the voting location.
Trump isn't President yet and a new federal law would be required to make California check for and purge noncitizens from their voter rolls. Maybe it will happen and then we will see whether it's in the millions.
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(12-08-2016, 09:15 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: (12-06-2016, 06:01 PM)David Horn Wrote: (12-05-2016, 11:26 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: (12-05-2016, 12:35 PM)gabrielle Wrote: http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/...refreshing
So how come claims about millions of illegal voters without proof are "bogus" but conspiracy theories about voting machine manipulation without proof are perfectly all right?
Oh, right, because MSNBC is populated by partisan hacks like Maddow.
In the Trump case, he just blurted out an unsupported comment, and left it there as a factoid of truthiness. In the case of the machines possibly being manipulated, we have foreigners directly intervening in the election process (some have admitted it proudly) and machines ripe for manipulation. Even at that, no one is saying it happened, just that it should be checked. If Trump has some potential fraud to investigate, that should be checked too ... but, apparently, he doesn't.
There are plenty of documented cases of noncitizens being registered and voting. Recounts can't catch those cases because ballots are anonymous by that point. That's why Republicans have to use preventative measures, like requiring actual proof of citizenship for registration and ID at the voting location.
Trump isn't President yet and a new federal law would be required to make California check for and purge noncitizens from their voter rolls. Maybe it will happen and then we will see whether it's in the millions.
California already does that; the only difference from the Trump states is that CA does it not at the polling place, in order to discourage the people Republicans don't like from voting, but afterward and beforehand, at the registrar's offices.
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(12-08-2016, 07:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-08-2016, 09:15 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: (12-06-2016, 06:01 PM)David Horn Wrote: (12-05-2016, 11:26 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: (12-05-2016, 12:35 PM)gabrielle Wrote: http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/...refreshing
So how come claims about millions of illegal voters without proof are "bogus" but conspiracy theories about voting machine manipulation without proof are perfectly all right?
Oh, right, because MSNBC is populated by partisan hacks like Maddow.
In the Trump case, he just blurted out an unsupported comment, and left it there as a factoid of truthiness. In the case of the machines possibly being manipulated, we have foreigners directly intervening in the election process (some have admitted it proudly) and machines ripe for manipulation. Even at that, no one is saying it happened, just that it should be checked. If Trump has some potential fraud to investigate, that should be checked too ... but, apparently, he doesn't.
There are plenty of documented cases of noncitizens being registered and voting. Recounts can't catch those cases because ballots are anonymous by that point. That's why Republicans have to use preventative measures, like requiring actual proof of citizenship for registration and ID at the voting location.
Trump isn't President yet and a new federal law would be required to make California check for and purge noncitizens from their voter rolls. Maybe it will happen and then we will see whether it's in the millions.
California already does that; the only difference from the Trump states is that CA does it not at the polling place, in order to discourage the people Republicans don't like from voting, but afterward and beforehand, at the registrar's offices.
We covered this earlier; California only requires a statement, not proof. If you provide the last four digits of a social security number, they never ask for any other form of ID, either on registration or on voting.
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I think perhaps people should consider the evil lies not without, but within the West
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(12-09-2016, 05:29 AM)beneficii Wrote: I think perhaps people should consider the evil lies not without, but within the West
The Evil Empire will be the USA.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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You expected the military to vote for "what does it matter any more" Clinton? If the Democrats wanted the military vote, they should have nominated Webb.
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(12-14-2016, 11:51 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: You expected the military to vote for "what does it matter any more" Clinton? If the Democrats wanted the military vote, they should have nominated Webb.
Why is Trump better in this regard? He dodged the draft, and he's never shown any interest in the military until he ran this time. Why is that better?
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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12-14-2016, 07:49 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-14-2016, 07:50 PM by Eric the Green.)
(12-08-2016, 09:30 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: (12-08-2016, 07:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-08-2016, 09:15 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: (12-06-2016, 06:01 PM)David Horn Wrote: (12-05-2016, 11:26 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: So how come claims about millions of illegal voters without proof are "bogus" but conspiracy theories about voting machine manipulation without proof are perfectly all right?
Oh, right, because MSNBC is populated by partisan hacks like Maddow.
In the Trump case, he just blurted out an unsupported comment, and left it there as a factoid of truthiness. In the case of the machines possibly being manipulated, we have foreigners directly intervening in the election process (some have admitted it proudly) and machines ripe for manipulation. Even at that, no one is saying it happened, just that it should be checked. If Trump has some potential fraud to investigate, that should be checked too ... but, apparently, he doesn't.
There are plenty of documented cases of noncitizens being registered and voting. Recounts can't catch those cases because ballots are anonymous by that point. That's why Republicans have to use preventative measures, like requiring actual proof of citizenship for registration and ID at the voting location.
Trump isn't President yet and a new federal law would be required to make California check for and purge noncitizens from their voter rolls. Maybe it will happen and then we will see whether it's in the millions.
California already does that; the only difference from the Trump states is that CA does it not at the polling place, in order to discourage the people Republicans don't like from voting, but afterward and beforehand, at the registrar's offices.
We covered this earlier; California only requires a statement, not proof. If you provide the last four digits of a social security number, they never ask for any other form of ID, either on registration or on voting.
Can't the registrar of voters compare the name and those last 4 digits to verify this form of ID?
There are not 2.9 million illegal immigrants in California, so they could not have given Hillary her popular vote margin.
Asking for photo IDs at a polling place does not prevent non-citizens from voting. A careful check at the office does.
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(12-14-2016, 11:51 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: You expected the military to vote for "what does it matter any more" Clinton? If the Democrats wanted the military vote, they should have nominated Webb.
Donald Trump is already having a stormy relationship with the military and the intelligence services, much in contrast to Barack Obama who was at worst at arm's length but knew that the generals, admirals, and intelligence chiefs knew what they were doing in day-to-day matters. Sure, he never was a chest-beating nationalist, but that's fine for a civilian not looking for trouble.
Barack Obama at least asked the right questions because he knows the limits of his knowledge. Donald Trump thinks that he knows it all, just as he is certain that global warming is an unsupportable, unpatriotic myth.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(12-14-2016, 01:07 PM)David Horn Wrote: (12-14-2016, 11:51 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: You expected the military to vote for "what does it matter any more" Clinton? If the Democrats wanted the military vote, they should have nominated Webb.
Why is Trump better in this regard? He dodged the draft, and he's never shown any interest in the military until he ran this time. Why is that better?
Lack of interest is better than actual harm.
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(12-14-2016, 07:51 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: (12-14-2016, 11:51 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: You expected the military to vote for "what does it matter any more" Clinton? If the Democrats wanted the military vote, they should have nominated Webb.
Donald Trump is already having a stormy relationship with the military and the intelligence services, much in contrast to Barack Obama who was at worst at arm's length but knew that the generals, admirals, and intelligence chiefs knew what they were doing in day-to-day matters. Sure, he never was a chest-beating nationalist, but that's fine for a civilian not looking for trouble.
Obama was far worse than that, especially with regard to the rank and file. And with respect to the military vote, there are a lot more in the rank and file than in the general staff.
There's no stormy relationship between Trump and the military. I mean, seriously, he appointed a defense secretary whose nickname is "mad dog"; for the average soldier, what could be better than that?
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