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One of the propositions of generational theory is that the Fourth Turning is a time when a new values regime is instituted in the civic order. As the 2016 elections unfolded, I got the impression from the successes of both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump that the country was indeed ready to move on from the Culture Wars and focus on building government. This was because both of those candidates were galvanizing voters with offers of Big Government solutions - whether enhancing the social welfare state with a better healthcare program and free college tuition, or investing money in infrastructure and job creation. There was even the promise of a giant wall to protect us from illegal migrants - simultaneously creating construction jobs and protecting the jobs that the migrants are stealing!
But now that Donald Trump has been elected and has appointed an alt-right cabinet, it appears that the true Trump domestic agenda will be the annihilation of the New Deal order - which has lately earned the derisive moniker of the 'Deep State' - and the undoing of recent advancements in instituting progressive values. Is he just a con artist, or is he too stupid to see what his own advisors are up to - who knows? There has been an upswelling of resistance against his agenda, with the same energy that charged the election - suggesting that the Culture Wars rage on.
Or perhaps the Culture Wars are in their denouement, with a final push back from the right, after which the lines will be drawn and the values regime will be established for the next couple of phases of the secular cycle. Here is where I see some of those values lining up, based on recent trends and my impression of the broad consensus, if such a thing exists:
* Pro-gun rights.
* Marijuana becomes legalized.
* Equal rights for gays, but not so much for the transgendered.
* Abortion remains legal, but heavily restricted.
* Gambling and pornography mainstreamed. And tattoos.
* Entertainment, in the form of music, TV and movies - gets darker for awhile as all those mid-life Xers brood.
* We remain essentially a multi-cultural society with religious freedom.
Less clear to me are where the lines will be drawn on these issues:
* Are we abandoning the old welfare nation-state model and settling on a corporatist oligarchy, with little to no protections for the lower economic classes - the 99 per cent left to fend for themselves?
* Are we willing to sacrifice the environment to keep the fossil-fuel industry strong, in the name of jobs for some of those 99 per cent?
* Will we reform our justice system, or continue to have a huge prison population and intractable tension between law enforcement and racial minorities?
It seems that if the New Deal Deep State does implode, we could be stuck with a world of corporate mastery - ruled by banks, energy companies, and a privately operated police state. Or maybe progressives will rally and rebuild a New New Deal on the ashes of the old. My feeling is that resolving these conflicts is where we are at now in this Fourth Turning.
I would love to know what others think about this!
Steve Barrera
[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure
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Without quoting Steve's post, I have to agree with the general thrust. Even more to the point, I don't see the 4T resolving in normal fashion, with a near stand-off between the two visions for Future America being proposed models but not actual solutions. Maybe this is due to my long-held view that the generational assembly during this 4T isn't up to resolving anything. The 1T will arrive, and a truce, of sorts, will quell any further action by either side. The 1T will muddle along, with the two sides cloistered in their urban and rural settings, neither able to bring the other along, but both able to survive in their enclaves.
The next 2T will drag all this out into the public square, and a resolution will finally emerge. If the call to the barricades is triggered by an environmental catastrophe, the resolution is predictable. Otherwise, its up for grabs.
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Thanks for replying, David. Your post suggests a Civil Separation - not a war, but no coming together and no resolution either. Like a couple who move to separate bedrooms and then stop talking. Then, since presumably there will no action on climate change, environmental catastrophe will become the dominant factor for the future.
How would a 2T society cope with climate disaster, I wonder? A massive party on the rising oceans?
Steve Barrera
[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure
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(01-16-2017, 02:46 PM)sbarrera Wrote: Thanks for replying, David. Your post suggests a Civil Separation - not a war, but no coming together and no resolution either. Like a couple who move to separate bedrooms and then stop talking. Then, since presumably there will no action on climate change, environmental catastrophe will become the dominant factor for the future.
How would a 2T society cope with climate disaster, I wonder? A massive party on the rising oceans?
An excellent question. The two sides are so fixated on their world views that a catastrophe may not be enough to bring them together. I would hope that the balance of opinion would shift enough to allow resolution, but who knows.
The 2T should be a doozy, though.
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We are not approaching the consolidation of a "One Nation, One Purpose, One Leader" America... America is severely rifted and the only way in which Donald Trump and his political flunkies can get the right0wing Christian and Corporate America is if they can completely shut down the opposition as in a totalitarian state that compels compliant obedience on pain of death.
Donald Trump already has a stormy relationship with the Armed Services, the CIA, most of the media, and academia. He may be so unpopular at some point that he would be vulnerable to a coup.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(01-16-2017, 05:37 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: We are not approaching the consolidation of a "One Nation, One Purpose, One Leader" America... America is severely rifted and the only way in which Donald Trump and his political flunkies can get the right0wing Christian and Corporate America is if they can completely shut down the opposition as in a totalitarian state that compels compliant obedience on pain of death.
Donald Trump already has a stormy relationship with the Armed Services, the CIA, most of the media, and academia. He may be so unpopular at some point that he would be vulnerable to a coup.
I remember having this same type of discussion on the old forum back when Bush was President and we were trying to figure out if 9-11 had catalyzed the Crisis Era. We were looking for that 'One America' even back then. But it seems we just can't get past the partisan rift.
Now I'd say we are definitely in Crisis mode. So it could be there will be a turning point around whether Trump can institute a totalitarian regime or we will descend into utter chaos.
Steve Barrera
[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure
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Quote:* Pro-gun rights.
* Marijuana becomes legalized.
* Equal rights for gays, but not so much for the transgendered.
* Abortion remains legal, but heavily restricted.
* Gambling and pornography mainstreamed. And tattoos.
* Entertainment, in the form of music, TV and movies - gets darker for awhile as all those mid-life Xers brood.
* We remain essentially a multi-cultural society with religious freedom.
Am with ya there. I largely agree with those, and I don't feel especially outside the mainstream for doing so.
Quote: * Are we abandoning the old welfare nation-state model and settling on a corporatist oligarchy, with little to no protections for the lower economic classes - the 99 per cent left to fend for themselves?
* Are we willing to sacrifice the environment to keep the fossil-fuel industry strong, in the name of jobs for some of those 99 per cent?
* Will we reform our justice system, or continue to have a huge prison population and intractable tension between law enforcement and racial minorities?
Am not seeing environmental action this turning, though it will continue to be a greater and greater issue going forward. It is worthwhile to point out that if it doesn't happen this turning, it doesn't have to wait till the second. Most of Britain's modern social-insurance got rammed through under Attlee after the 4T was over.
The minorities/justice issue looks like it will come to some sort of head in the not-too-distant future. God knows how that pans out.
I think the whole corporatist oligarchy thing gets bandied about a little too freely by people left of center, but we'll see.
Quote:New Deal order - which has lately earned the derisive moniker of the 'Deep State'
?
That's not what that means. At least, I have never seen it used in that fashion before. Which amounts to the same thing. 
"Deep State" is borrowed from the (past?) experiences of places like Turkey, where the security agencies retain(ed) power above and beyond that allotted to them formally, and/or reserved broad extra-judicial and extra-democratic powers for themselves in the constitutions they put forward. The American "Deep State" would be the national-security sector/military-industrial complex, not Social Security or Medicare.
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(01-16-2017, 05:59 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: ?
That's not what that means. At least, I have never seen it used in that fashion before. Which amounts to the same thing.
"Deep State" is borrowed from the (past?) experiences of places like Turkey, where the security agencies retain(ed) power above and beyond that allotted to them formally, and/or reserved broad extra-judicial and extra-democratic powers for themselves in the constitutions they put forward. The American "Deep State" would be the national-security sector/military-industrial complex, not Social Security or Medicare.
Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Of course the US Deep State sux green donkey dicks, while the New Deal stuff is awesome.
---Value Added 
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(01-16-2017, 05:59 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Quote:New Deal order - which has lately earned the derisive moniker of the 'Deep State'
?
That's not what that means. At least, I have never seen it used in that fashion before. Which amounts to the same thing.
"Deep State" is borrowed from the (past?) experiences of places like Turkey, where the security agencies retain(ed) power above and beyond that allotted to them formally, and/or reserved broad extra-judicial and extra-democratic powers for themselves in the constitutions they put forward. The American "Deep State" would be the national-security sector/military-industrial complex, not Social Security or Medicare.
Thanks for the clarification, some guy.  I think I encountered the phrase in a post on the Internet and took it out of context.
Is there a term for the bureaucratic apparatus the Republicans would like to de-fund - the EPA, dept of education, dept of energy?
Steve Barrera
[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure
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(01-16-2017, 05:55 PM)sbarrera Wrote: (01-16-2017, 05:37 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: We are not approaching the consolidation of a "One Nation, One Purpose, One Leader" America... America is severely rifted and the only way in which Donald Trump and his political flunkies can get the right0wing Christian and Corporate America is if they can completely shut down the opposition as in a totalitarian state that compels compliant obedience on pain of death.
Donald Trump already has a stormy relationship with the Armed Services, the CIA, most of the media, and academia. He may be so unpopular at some point that he would be vulnerable to a coup.
I remember having this same type of discussion on the old forum back when Bush was President and we were trying to figure out if 9-11 had catalyzed the Crisis Era. We were looking for that 'One America' even back then. But it seems we just can't get past the partisan rift.
Now I'd say we are definitely in Crisis mode. So it could be there will be a turning point around whether Trump can institute a totalitarian regime or we will descend into utter chaos.
We have gone from having a 'suppressed crisis' of political gridlock to a time in which one political side proclaims "We won, and you're done!". But can a group short of being a majority suppress a minority of similar side?
Probably not. We have no tradition of the winners suppressing the other side. We have a heritage of free elections, freedom of conscience, and of people protesting what they consider raw deals. Should there be real repression, then things will get incredibly ugly and unstable.
I have long thought America invulnerable to coups because of the decentralization of political power, economic power, and the media. A successful coup would require the military to take over, or at least get acquiescence , in several big cities at once. Washington, New York, and Los Angeles are obvious enough.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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Quote:Thanks for the clarification, some guy. I think I encountered the phrase in a post on the Internet and took it out of context.
No problem. And, if you ever hear anyone else misusing it in RL, you can just tell them that some guy on the internet told ya you were using it wrong.
Quote:Is there a term for the bureaucratic apparatus the Republicans would like to de-fund - the EPA, dept of education, dept of energy?
Those damned commies?
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(01-16-2017, 01:49 PM)sbarrera Wrote: One of the propositions of generational theory is that the Fourth Turning is a time when a new values regime is instituted in the civic order. As the 2016 elections unfolded, I got the impression from the successes of both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump that the country was indeed ready to move on from the Culture Wars and focus on building government. This was because both of those candidates were galvanizing voters with offers of Big Government solutions - whether enhancing the social welfare state with a better healthcare program and free college tuition, or investing money in infrastructure and job creation. There was even the promise of a giant wall to protect us from illegal migrants - simultaneously creating construction jobs and protecting the jobs that the migrants are stealing!
But now that Donald Trump has been elected and has appointed an alt-right cabinet, it appears that the true Trump domestic agenda will be the annihilation of the New Deal order - which has lately earned the derisive moniker of the 'Deep State' - and the undoing of recent advancements in instituting progressive values. Is he just a con artist, or is he too stupid to see what his own advisors are up to - who knows? There has been an upswelling of resistance against his agenda, with the same energy that charged the election - suggesting that the Culture Wars rage on.
Or perhaps the Culture Wars are in their denouement, with a final push back from the right, after which the lines will be drawn and the values regime will be established for the next couple of phases of the secular cycle. Here is where I see some of those values lining up, based on recent trends and my impression of the broad consensus, if such a thing exists:
* Pro-gun rights.
* Marijuana becomes legalized.
* Equal rights for gays, but not so much for the transgendered.
* Abortion remains legal, but heavily restricted.
* Gambling and pornography mainstreamed. And tattoos.
* Entertainment, in the form of music, TV and movies - gets darker for awhile as all those mid-life Xers brood.
* We remain essentially a multi-cultural society with religious freedom.
Less clear to me are where the lines will be drawn on these issues:
* Are we abandoning the old welfare nation-state model and settling on a corporatist oligarchy, with little to no protections for the lower economic classes - the 99 per cent left to fend for themselves?
* Are we willing to sacrifice the environment to keep the fossil-fuel industry strong, in the name of jobs for some of those 99 per cent?
* Will we reform our justice system, or continue to have a huge prison population and intractable tension between law enforcement and racial minorities?
It seems that if the New Deal Deep State does implode, we could be stuck with a world of corporate mastery - ruled by banks, energy companies, and a privately operated police state. Or maybe progressives will rally and rebuild a New New Deal on the ashes of the old. My feeling is that resolving these conflicts is where we are at now in this Fourth Turning.
I would love to know what others think about this!
Gun rights as currently touted reduces everything valuable in society, because all we hear about are constant massacres of innocent people by idiots who should not have guns. This will be a conflict necessary to resolve. If the pro-new deal side comes back and wins, then "gun rights" will be reduced, but the gun nuts will fight back and this will have to be resolved, probably with a brief civil war.
The millennials have been raising the vibe of music that was so darkened in the Gen X youth era. That is more typical of 4Ts according to Strauss and Howe. That should continue into the 1T; a trend toward brighter and more innocuous rather than dark and cynical protest. The last 1T set the standard for "innocuity."
I don't see any let up in rights for transgendered. The LBGT categories all go together now.
If the 4T is typical, porno stuff and gambling may be more restricted. In CA though gambling is heavily advertised, and that should continue in areas where Native Americans use it for income.
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I hope so. Millennials and Xers seem pretty solid for the most part. It seems to be boomers who fight the most over social issues. With the others, they may not necessary agree with something but believe that you should have the right to do something.
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(01-16-2017, 05:59 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Am not seeing environmental action this turning, though it will continue to be a greater and greater issue going forward. It is worthwhile to point out that if it doesn't happen this turning, it doesn't have to wait till the second. Most of Britain's modern social-insurance got rammed through under Attlee after the 4T was over.
IIRC, there are those, such as David Kaiser, who believe that the UK's 4T didn't end until the late 40s or early 50s. In that case, the National Health and other British social insurance programs would have been implemented in a 4T.
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(01-17-2017, 12:44 PM)The Wonkette Wrote: (01-16-2017, 05:59 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Am not seeing environmental action this turning, though it will continue to be a greater and greater issue going forward. It is worthwhile to point out that if it doesn't happen this turning, it doesn't have to wait till the second. Most of Britain's modern social-insurance got rammed through under Attlee after the 4T was over.
IIRC, there are those, such as David Kaiser, who believe that the UK's 4T didn't end until the late 40s or early 50s. In that case, the National Health and other British social insurance programs would have been implemented in a 4T.
Late '40s I can believe, 50s seems like it would be pushing it. But I dunno, if Kaiser or Chas were here I could probably get a decent explanation for it.
Either way, it doesn't preclude a Dem (or whatever) sliding in and pushing some stuff through in the '29 to '30 timeframe.
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(01-17-2017, 01:13 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Actual Rightists who've been duped by foreign agents and the faux (Alt) "Right" have unwisely latched onto a sad amalgam of Nazi notions and other revolutionary bullshit. To be fair, the New Left repeatedly poked the Rightists and this resulted in backlash. This backlash combined with how unappealing Clinton was resulted in Trump.
The Right may think they are now winning the Culture War and may think they have successfully rolled back the 4T and restored their 3T comfort zone. However it is an illusion. The Right have not won, they've merely made a deal with The Devil. Now that they are the SCO's bitch, the SCO will call everything due. We all lose.
Dude, you thought Y2K was a Russian plot, too.
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Things are too polarized on a national level for coherent action on a federal level, I think most of the action is going to happen on the state level.
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(01-17-2017, 11:55 AM)flbones too Wrote: I hope so. Millennials and Xers seem pretty solid for the most part. It seems to be boomers who fight the most over social issues. With the others, they may not necessary agree with something but believe that you should have the right to do something.
This is both true and not surprising. Boomers came of age during the social upheavals of the 60s and 70s. Racism, sexism, and the beginnings of the social opening all started in earnest during that period. So did drugs and just being free.
Of course the fight continues.
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(01-17-2017, 12:44 PM)The Wonkette Wrote: (01-16-2017, 05:59 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Am not seeing environmental action this turning, though it will continue to be a greater and greater issue going forward. It is worthwhile to point out that if it doesn't happen this turning, it doesn't have to wait till the second. Most of Britain's modern social-insurance got rammed through under Attlee after the 4T was over.
IIRC, there are those, such as David Kaiser, who believe that the UK's 4T didn't end until the late 40s or early 50s. In that case, the National Health and other British social insurance programs would have been implemented in a 4T.
I agree, and even if the 4T ended before the NHS and other programs got established, the seed was planted and nourished by the war.
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(01-17-2017, 01:16 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: (01-17-2017, 12:44 PM)The Wonkette Wrote: (01-16-2017, 05:59 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Am not seeing environmental action this turning, though it will continue to be a greater and greater issue going forward. It is worthwhile to point out that if it doesn't happen this turning, it doesn't have to wait till the second. Most of Britain's modern social-insurance got rammed through under Attlee after the 4T was over.
IIRC, there are those, such as David Kaiser, who believe that the UK's 4T didn't end until the late 40s or early 50s. In that case, the National Health and other British social insurance programs would have been implemented in a 4T.
Late '40s I can believe, 50s seems like it would be pushing it. But I dunno, if Kaiser or Chas were here I could probably get a decent explanation for it.
Either way, it doesn't preclude a Dem (or whatever) sliding in and pushing some stuff through in the '29 to '30 timeframe.
I read a comment somewhere that the push to kill the ACA may be the only way to get a single payer system in place. We'll see.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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