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01-28-2017, 02:09 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2017, 02:30 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
(01-28-2017, 12:44 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > Those are all different regions on their own timelines. The
> collapse of the Soviet Union was not brought about by a Crisis
> climax; it was brought about by an Awakening climax. The Vietnam
> War was a "crisis" for America, but there was no Regeneracy and no
> Climax.
(01-28-2017, 01:11 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: > The collapse of the Soviet Union was an Awakening? How did we jump
> to turning #5, then? 
The Awakening era is characterized by a political clash between the
crisis war survivor generations and the generations growing up after
the war. The Awakening climax decides the inter-generational victors
and losers. It can occur during the Awakening era (resignation of
Nixon), or it can occur later (Glorious Revolution, Weimar collapse,
Tiananmen Square massacre, Soviet Union collapse). The words "Velvet
Coup" or "Velvet Revolution" are often used to describe the event
because there's relatively little violence.
An Awakening era creates a horizontal split in the population --
generation vs generation. A Crisis era creates a vertical split --
religion vs religion, ethnic group vs ethnic group, etc. The climax
in each case determines a victor, but in the case of the Crisis
climax, it comes after maximum genocidal violence that's so horrific
that the survivors enter a First Turning again.
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(01-28-2017, 02:09 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: (01-28-2017, 12:44 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > Those are all different regions on their own timelines. The
> collapse of the Soviet Union was not brought about by a Crisis
> climax; it was brought about by an Awakening climax. The Vietnam
> War was a "crisis" for America, but there was no Regeneracy and no
> Climax.
(01-28-2017, 01:11 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: > The collapse of the Soviet Union was an Awakening? How did we jump
> to turning #5, then?
The Awakening era is characterized by a political clash between the
crisis war survivor generations and the generations growing up after
the war. The Awakening climax decides the inter-generational victors
and losers. It can occur during the Awakening era (resignation of
Nixon), or it can occur later (Glorious Revolution, Weimar collapse,
Tiananmen Square massacre, Soviet Union collapse). The words "Velvet
Coup" or "Velvet Revolution" are often used to describe the event
because there's relatively little violence.
An Awakening era creates a horizontal split in the population --
generation vs generation. A Crisis era creates a vertical split --
religion vs religion, ethnic group vs ethnic group, etc. The climax
in each case determines a victor, but in the case of the Crisis
climax, it comes after maximum genocidal violence that's so horrific
that the survivors enter a First Turning again.
This is the "It's not a crisis without a war" bit again, isn't it?
Quote:How World War III could begin in Latvia.
Which again goes against the idea of Russia fighting China instead of the West.
Quote:Personally, I have a difficult time seeing Putin getting drawn in to anything that doesn't involve a direct attack on Russia, and he tries to avoid even that, as witness his opposition to a Hillary Clinton presidency.
That said, I suppose if the domestic situation in Russia became sufficiently fragile, and some key person were killed that was important politically, he might be drawn in.
I think Russia is more likely to be drawn in by a European conflict, for example if Ukraine heated up again and got out of hand. The issue there is that it's France that controls the nuclear weapons, not Germany.
Yeah, I think the risk is more with whoever comes in AFTER Putin. Somebody like Rogozin or something. And yeah, I don't think it would be over the Amur river or South Asia, either.
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I knew I didn't want to rehash this stuff again.
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By the way, my China-Russia article cross-posted in the Breitbart
National Security section has drawn hundreds of comments. As usual,
they range from loony to extremely intelligent and well-researched.
Anyone interested in more commentary on this subject should check that
out.
http://www.breitbart.com/national-securi...k-america/
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(01-28-2017, 02:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: How World War III could begin in Latvia.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/16/how-...in-latvia/
I could see Russia doing as he says. I disagree that it's inconsistent with realism. His contention that "A truly rational Russia would not see NATO and European Union expansion as a threat, because the liberal order is open and inclusive and would actually augment Russia’s security and prosperity", while believed in the West, is not verifiable to Russia. A Russian realist would have to consider it a conjecture, not proven fact.
There's an internal contradiction in the article. He says Russia's intervention would be done so as to permit plausible deniability. Why? Well, exactly so that NATO's intervention would not result in a war with Russia.
All the US needs to do is say, "we credit the Russian claims that they are not involved in the conflict, and we are intervening to help a NATO member with respect to internal rebellion". For Putin to turn that into a war, he has to say, "oh, no, those guys aren't internal after all, they're Russian". If he was going to say that, why set up the plausible deniability in the first place?
Incidentally, that's exactly what the US should have said with respect to Ukraine, as justification for giving them whatever arms they needed.
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(01-28-2017, 06:45 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: (01-28-2017, 02:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: How World War III could begin in Latvia.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/16/how-...in-latvia/
I could see Russia doing as he says. I disagree that it's inconsistent with realism. His contention that "A truly rational Russia would not see NATO and European Union expansion as a threat, because the liberal order is open and inclusive and would actually augment Russia’s security and prosperity", while believed in the West, is not verifiable to Russia. A Russian realist would have to consider it a conjecture, not proven fact.
There's an internal contradiction in the article. He says Russia's intervention would be done so as to permit plausible deniability. Why? Well, exactly so that NATO's intervention would not result in a war with Russia.
All the US needs to do is say, "we credit the Russian claims that they are not involved in the conflict, and we are intervening to help a NATO member with respect to internal rebellion". For Putin to turn that into a war, he has to say, "oh, no, those guys aren't internal after all, they're Russian". If he was going to say that, why set up the plausible deniability in the first place?
Incidentally, that's exactly what the US should have said with respect to Ukraine, as justification for giving them whatever arms they needed.
Yeah, the moral hysteria over Putin's Russia is grossly overdone. I doubt very much Putin is looking to pick a fight with NATO. Note, that is not the same as caving to everything the West asks for. The intervention in Syria served a very useful purpose of showing that Russia can bring pressure to bear on multiple fronts, without risking a counterproductive escalation on any one of them.
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*** 29-Jan-17 World View -- Protests grow over Trump's executive order to restrict immigration
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Protests grow over Trump's executive order to restrict immigration
- Iran promises retaliation against Americans
****
**** Protests grow over Trump's executive order to restrict immigration
****
![[Image: g170128b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170128b.jpg)
Protests at San Francisco International Airport on Friday (Getty)
President Donald Trump on Friday fulfilled some of his campaign
promises by signing an executive order to limit immigration. In
brief, the terms of the executive order are:
- Blocked all people from seven "terror-prone" countries from
entering the United States for at least 90 days. The countries named
in the order are: Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and
Yemen.
- Ordered a review of all other countries to determine which of them
do not provide "adequate information" for its citizens to be issued
visas to enter the US.
- Stopped the admission of all refugees to the United States for
four months. Also, cut in half the number of refugees that will be
admitted to 50,000 from the 110,000 cap established by former
president Barack Obama.
- Ordered that refugees should be prioritized for entry on the basis
of religious persecution, "provided that the religion of the
individual is a minority religion." It's expected that this order
will favor Christian refugees.
- Permanently barred Syrian nationals from entering.
- Ordered the implementation of "extreme vetting" new
immigration screening procedures.
Those opposing the executive order made the following points:
- By singling out Muslim countries, the order makes
religious distinctions that are unconstitutional.
- The order was poorly prepared and issued, since it's causing chaos
in airports around the world.
- People who have green cards and visas and who have already been
fully vetted are being prevented from reentering the country.
- Foreign national students who returned home for winter break are
unable to reenter the country.
- Families are being split up arbitrarily, depending on whether
one family member just happens to be out of the country on business
or vacation.
There have been growing anti-American government protests,
particularly at international airports around the world, where chaos
is at a maximum since no one is sure who's going to be admitted to the
US. Late on Saturday, a federal judge issued an order blocking the
federal government from deporting people detained at the airports
because of the executive order.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, America is joining a
worldwide trend that I've been writing about for years. In this
generational Crisis era, nationalism and xenophobia have been
increasing in countries around the world, and the same is true in
America. Those who blame Trump for this have it backwards. As
regular readers know, it's a core principle of generational theory
that even in a dictatorship, major policies and events are determined
by masses of people, entire generations of people, and not by
politicians. The growth of nationalism and xenophobia around the
world is not caused by Trump or by any politician; it's driven by the
current generations of people, now that the survivors of World War II
are gone. CNN - Full text of executive order and Saudi Gazette and CNN
Related Articles
****
**** Iran promises retaliation against Americans
****
A statement by Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs promises
retaliation against American nationals for the effects of
Trumps executive order on Iranian nationals. According to
the statement:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"The decision of the Government of the United States
> to impose restrictions on the travel of Muslims to the United
> States – though temporarily for three months – is a clear insult
> to the Islamic world, and especially the great nation of Iran; and
> despite claims of being made to combat terrorism and protecting
> the people of the United States, it will be recorded in history as
> a great gift to extremists and their supporters. ...
>
> The decision of the Government of the United States to target the
> people of Iran and clearly insult all sections of this great
> nation has put on clear display the baselessness of the
> U.S. claims of friendship with the Iranian people while only
> having issues with the Government of Iran. It also shows the
> rancor and enmity of some in the US government and influential
> circles both within the United States and abroad towards all
> Iranians around the world: The Iranian nation who, benefiting from
> an ancient and rich civilization and religious beliefs founded on
> humanitarian values, has always promoted the message of
> constructive engagement, not only resisted domination but also the
> temptations to dominate others, and fought extremism and violence;
> a resilient nation which has stood firm in the face of extremist
> terrorists and which was among the first victims of organized
> terrorism; a great people which has had no presence in any
> extremist terrorist operation, but instead in all societies in
> which it has traveled or resided as scientists, students,
> entrepreneurs, tourists or immigrants, has been known as one of
> the most law abiding, cultured, educated and successful
> communities, thus representing its Iranian and Islamic culture and
> civilization in the most dignified and peace-loving manner.
>
> To ensure respect for the dignity of all members of the great
> Iranian nation at home and abroad, the Government of the Islamic
> Republic of Iran will engage in a careful assessment of the short
> and medium-term impact of the decision of the U.S. Government on
> Iranian nationals, and will take proportionate legal, consular and
> political action and while respecting the American people and
> differentiating between them and the hostile policies of the
> U.S. Government – will take reciprocal measures in order to
> safeguard the rights of its citizens until the time of the removal
> of the insulting restrictions of the Government of the United
> States against Iranian nationals."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This is the usual delusional stuff you hear from Iran. They say that
Iranians are "a great people which has had no presence in any
extremist terrorist operation," but they ignore their massive funding
of terrorist organizations, including Hezbollah and Hamas, and their
own sponsored terrorism in countries like Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
Furthermore, Iran is a terrorist country to its own people -- peaceful
student protests are met with murder, torture and jailings of
innocent civilians.
The most delusional of the Iranians are the old geezers left over from
the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979, still dreaming of the erotic
days of the revolution when they could torture or rape or kill anyone
they want with impunity, and see nothing wrong with the same thing
today. This includes the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei.
On Friday, another old geezer Iranian cleric Ayatollah Mohammad Ali
Movahedi Kermani said that "those individuals who defend their lives,
honor, and country are not terrorists." To these people, an innocent
girl peacefully holding up a protest sign in Tehran's "Freedom Square"
is an enemy that the security police can torture, rape or kill because
doing so defends the country's honor.
One thing that really infuriates hardline Iranian officials is any
equivalencing of Sunni jihadist terror to Iranian terror. We saw this
particularly a year ago when Saudi Arabia executed 47 people on
charges of terrorism. 46 of them were Sunni jihadists, and the 47th
was Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr, a Shia terrorist from Iran. In
response, there were widespread riots in Iran, including burning down
the Saudi embassy in Tehran.
There is one additional significant quote from the Foreign Ministry
statement:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"The decision of the Government of the United States
> incorporates certain requests that are illegal, illogical and
> contrary to international law. Considering the absence of
> relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United
> States, those requests are not applicable to and cannot be
> accommodated by the Government of the Islamic Republic of
> Iran."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
It's possible that these "certain requests" refer to the need for
countries to provide "adequate information" for its citizens to be
issued visas to enter the US, as stated in Trump's executive order.
If that is what is being referred to, then it's possible that Iran
will refuse to provide "adequate information," and the ban on
Iranian's entering the US could become permanent. Obviously that
situation will not be sustainable, and one side or the other will have
to back down. Tasnim News (Tehran) and Pro Publica and Tasnim News (Tehran) and Fars News (Tehran - trans)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia,
Sudan, Yemen, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani, Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr
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*** 30-Jan-17 World View -- Ethnic cleansing of Myanmar's Rohingyas threatens regional stability
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Trying to keep up in a world in a state of hysteria
- Leading Muslim government advisor in Myanmar (Burma) is assassinated
- Ethnic cleansing of Myanmar's Rohingyas threatens regional stability
****
**** Trying to keep up in a world in a state of hysteria
****
This weekend, the mainstream media is in total hysteria, with
reporters screaming like babbling idiots, almost unable form a
complete sentence without saying something that's incredibly fatuous
or stupid.
As always, in my daily Generational Dynamics World View articles, I
try to report what's really going on in the world, which is what the
tens of thousands of my readers count on. While reporters are
screaming obsessively at each other about the executive order, there
are really significant things going on in the Mideast, Africa and Asia
that are far more important to our future than one political story.
Unfortunately, I'm only one person, who has limited time beyond the
exigencies of having to earn a living, at a time when the number of
real international crises keep growing, even if the mainstream press
ignores them for the cotton candy of political partisanship. But I
hope that you'll bear with me, Dear Reader, and I'll continue to do my
best to apply the Generational Dynamics methodology and to inform you
of the really important events in the world.
****
**** Leading Muslim government advisor in Myanmar (Burma) is assassinated
****
![[Image: g170129b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170129b.jpg)
A Rohingya woman and child in a refugee camp in Bangladesh (Reuters)
Ko Ni, a legal adviser to Myanmar's (Burma's) government was shot to
death by a gunshot to the head as he walked out of the arrival gate at
Rangoon's airport, after returning from a flight overseas. Ko Ni was
a Muslim who was ethnically Burmese. He was the most prominent Muslim
member of the government. He was also an advocate for human rights as
regards Muslims, and ran a law firm that aided Muslims. No motive for
the assassination is yet known, but it's believed that motive is
related to this Muslim human rights connection.
Ko Ni was particularly an adviser to Aung San Suu Kyi, the de
facto head of Burma's government, after her party, the National
League for Democracy (NLD) won the elections in November 2015. Suu
Kyi won a Nobel Peace prize years ago when she was under house arrest,
and her ascension to power gave hope not only to citizens of Burma but
also to the international community who were hoping for stability in
the country.
However, Suu Kyi's refusal or inability to stop the rapes, beatings,
torture and slaughter of Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State by the
army has caused Suu Kyi's reputation to plummet, and the assassination
of Ko Ni will only further complicate the situation. Myanmar Times and Independent (Ireland) and International Business Times
Related Articles
****
**** Ethnic cleansing of Myanmar's Rohingyas threatens regional stability
****
The ethnic cleansing and violence by Myanmar's (Burma's) mostly
Buddhist army targeting Muslim Rohingyas has been worsening in recent
months. Myanmar has essentially admitted guilt by refusing to permit
international journalists or investigators into the region, as stories
beatings, rape and torture continue to leak out, and as satellite
pictures show entire villages burned down by the army.
Concerns are growing that the ethnic cleansing of Myanmar's Rohingya
population is threatening the stability of the entire region.
Since October 9 of last year, after nine Myanmar border police were
killed in an attack blamed on Rohingya militants, some 65,000
Rohingyas fled across the Myanmar border to Bangladesh to escape the
violence by Myanmar's army. The total number of Rohingyas in
Bangladesh is estimated to be around 400,000, mostly living in filthy
refugee camps.
Bangladesh is under international human rights pressure to allow more
Rohingyas to enter Bangladesh, but they place a heavy burden on
Bangladesh's resources. As one journalist wrote, "in the conditions
which prevail today, morality suggests that Rohingya fleeing
persecution in their country be let into Bangladesh. At the same time,
a sense of reality points to the terrible burden that could be put on
Bangladesh’s resources if they are allowed entry, with hardly any
guarantee that they will soon, or ever, go back home."
Malaysia's Prime Minister Najib Razak called an emergency meeting of
the 57 countries in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation two weeks
ago in Kuala Lumpur. Najib said at the conference:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"The killing must stop. The violation of women and
> girls must stop. The persecution of your fellow men and women,
> simply on the grounds that they are Muslim, must
> stop."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Malaysia is a Muslim-majority country, and it's for that reason that
Najib chose to interfere in the internal affairs of Myanmar, something
that would otherwise be unthinkable among the southeast Asian
countries.
The fear is that with the swelling population of Rohingyas that have
fled to Bangladesh and other countries, they present an easy target
for recruitment by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh), which is trying to get a foothold in the region, or by other
jihadist groups.
It's feared that unless Myanmar ends the ethnic cleansing of
Rohingyas, the result will be terror attacks and instability
throughout the region. Institute of South Asian Studies and Reuters (20-Jan) and Indian Express (9-Dec)
Related Articles
0
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar, Rohingya, Rakhine State,
Aung San Suu Kyi, National League for Democracy, NLD, Ko Ni,
Bangladesh, Malaysia, Najib Razak,
Organization of Islamic Cooperation, OIC,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
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*** 31-Jan-17 World View -- US will upgrade Philippines military bases, despite Duterte's threats
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Philippines war on drugs in chaos after murder of S. Korean businessman
- US will upgrade Philippines military bases, despite Duterte's threats
****
**** Philippines war on drugs in chaos after murder of S. Korean businessman
****
![[Image: g170130b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170130b.jpg)
Rodrigo Duterte
The "war on drugs" launched by Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte
has been extremely popular, even as it's resulted in the deaths of
more than 7,000 people at the hands of the police in extrajudicial
killings. Duterte had vowed to eradicate the country's drug problem
by March of this year, but now says that it will continue until his
term ends in 2022.
Those same police had further abused their power by kidnapping Jee
Ick-joo, a South Korean businessman, apparently to collect a ransom.
The kidnapping was botched, and the victim was killed by strangulation
inside the grounds of the national police headquarters, Camp Crame.
Some suspects in the murder are still at large, and Duterte has given
them 48 hours to turn themselves in, or have a dead-or-alive bounty on
their heads of 5 million pesos ($100,000).
The murder has infuriated the South Korean public, and has embarrassed
Duterte to the extent that he's begin forced to suspend his war on
drugs in order to conduct a war on "corrupt police." He will disband
all the anti-drug units in the police. In a press conference on
Sunday, Duterte said,
> [indent] <QUOTE>"You policemen are the most corrupt. You are corrupt
> to the core. It's in your system. Cleanse your ranks. Review
> their cases. Give me a list of who the scalawags
> are."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Instead, he plans to create a "narco police" command under the
existing Philippine Drugs Enforcement Agency that will target police
involved in the drugs trade.
Philippines National Police Chief Gen. Ronald dela Rosa said on
Monday, "We will cleanse our ranks. . .then maybe after that, we can
resume our war on drugs. Rogue cops, beware! We no longer have a war
on drugs; we now have a war on scalawags."
Human Rights Watch is dismissing the new policy as a stunt and a
"cynical PR gesture." Foreign Policy and Sydney Morning Herald
****
**** US will upgrade Philippines military bases, despite Duterte's threats
****
Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte was infuriated when President
Barack Obama criticized the violations of human rights in the "war on
drugs" when he took office in June. In response, Duterte called Obama
"the son of a whore," and threatened to scrap the Enhanced Defense
Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) that had been signed in 2014, a move that
was opposed by Duterte's own ministers.
The EDCA agreement allows the expansion of rotational deployment of
U.S. ships, aircraft and troops at five bases in the Philippines as
well as the storage of equipment for humanitarian and maritime
security operations at the five locations.
At a news conference on Monday, Duterte said:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"Now, here is my worry: The United States is building
> depots. They are unloading arms in Palawan, in Cagayan de Oro, and
> in Pampanga. I am serving notice to the Armed Forces of the
> United States: Do not do it. I will not allow it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
However, Philippines military spokesman Brigadier-General Restituto
Padilla said, "There was no confirmed incident of this nature." He
said that only rubber boats, generator sets and materials for building
shelters would be stored in Philippine facilities.
Duterte's disgust with the United States has been matched by his
fawning over China and Russia. He's asked China to supply two to
three fast boats, two drones, sniper rifles and a robot for bomb
disposal, in a $14 million arms donation. Russia has offered hardware
such as ships, submarines, planes and helicopter.
As I've written many times, it's a core principle of generational
theory that even in a dictatorship, major policies and events are
determined by masses of people, entire generations of people, and not
by politicians.
The relevance to Duterte is that the United States is overwhelmingly
viewed favorably by the people of the Philippines, while the people of
China and Russia are viewed far less favorably. In particularly,
there is an enormous mutual hostility between the Chinese and Filipino
people. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries will be on one side, and the US, Russia, India and Iran will
be on the other side. The popularity of the United States among the
Filipino people means that Duterte's dalliance with China will be
short-lived, and that the Philippines will side with the United States
against China in the approaching war. Manila Times and Reuters and The Diplomat
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte,
South Korea, Jee Ick-joo, Camp Crame,
Philippine Drugs Enforcement Agency, Ronald dela Rosa,
Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, EDCA,
Brigadier-General Restituto Padilla
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(01-28-2017, 04:25 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: By the way, my China-Russia article cross-posted in the Breitbart
National Security section has drawn hundreds of comments. As usual,
they range from loony to extremely intelligent and well-researched.
Anyone interested in more commentary on this subject should check that
out.
http://www.breitbart.com/national-securi...k-america/
I looked at your link, though the signal to noise ratio in the comments was not high enough to sift through it thoroughly.
I would still be interested in understanding better why you think the sides will work out the way you do. A link to earlier discussion would be great.
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*** 1-Feb-17 World View -- New fighting between Ukraine and Russia flares up in eastern Ukraine
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- New fighting between Ukraine and Russia flares up in eastern Ukraine
- Thousands of US troops in Poland conduct joint drills with Polish troops
****
**** New fighting between Ukraine and Russia flares up in eastern Ukraine
****
![[Image: g170131b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170131b.jpg)
Soldiers and tank in eastern Ukraine
After almost two years of stalemate in the fighting in Donbass in
eastern Ukraine between the Ukrainian army and Russian anti-government
militias, the fighting has suddenly flared up again in the last three
days. Heavy artillery shelling on both sides has killed at least 33
civilians, and has left thousands of people in the government-held
town of Avdiivka without water and electricity, at a time when
temperatures at night fall to -20C (-4F).
Several analysts are saying that the renewed fighting is a reaction to
the new Trump administration. Kiev-based independent political
analyst Vadim Karasyov said an escalation in the east could be
beneficial to both the separatists and the Ukrainian government:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"Kiev is eager to win support of the new Trump
> administration, and for this they need to show that separatists
> and the Kremlin are derailing the peace accords. For the Kremlin,
> it's important to show that it holds war and peace in its hands —
> if the new U.S. administration wants peace in Ukraine, it needs to
> offer something in return."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Russian troops invaded eastern Ukraine after anti-Russian protesters
in Kiev, Ukraine's capital city, forced the pro-Russian president
Viktor Yanukovich to step down, after he reneged under pressure from
Moscow to to sign a trade agreement with the European Union.
Russia always denied that there were Russian army troops in Ukraine,
and when it was proven there were, the Russians claimed that they were
just "volunteers." That also turned out to be disinformation, as 80%
of Russia's army is a volunteer army. America has an all-volunteer
army. So saying that Russian troops in Ukraine are "volunteers" is
like saying that America's troops in Iraq and Afghanistan are
"volunteers."
The worst occurred in July 2014 when the Russians in eastern Ukraine
shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 passenger plane with a Russian
Buk 9M38 missile that was transported by a Volvo truck from Russia.
After Russian troops annexed Ukraine's Crimea Peninsula in 2014, the
war in eastern Ukraine became stalemated, as Russia moved its troops
and supplies away from Ukraine to Syria. But now the fighting is
escalating again, and there are fears that a larger war may result
again. AP and Al Jazeera and EurActiv
Related Articles
****
**** Thousands of US troops in Poland conduct joint drills with Polish troops
****
About 3,500 American troops conducted live-fire exercises with Polish
troops on Tuesday. Poland's president Andrzej Duda welcomed the US
commitment of troops, calling it a "historic moment":
> [indent] <QUOTE>"We welcome our allies here today with open arms. I
> do believe that this presence is going to further strengthen the
> transatlantic bond and our collective security."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The US commitment of troops came about because of Russia's invasion of
Ukraine and annexation Crimea. Anxieties were raised in Poland other
countries that they might be next. That explains the effusive praise
that the American troops are receiving. Many Poles consider the
threat from Russia real, and believe that the Russians will not invade
Poland if it meant firing on American soldiers.
After the military exercises, the soldiers are to be distributed
across Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, and the Baltic countries. The
headquarters unit will be stationed in Germany. Radio Poland and Russia Today
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Donbass, Russia, Avdiivka,
Vadim Karasyov, Viktor Yanukovich, Crimea,
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, Russian Buk 9M38 missile
Poland, Andrzej Duda, Bulgaria, Romania
Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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Posts: 2,751
Threads: 4
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*** 2-Feb-17 World View -- Israel expels residents of Amona West Bank settlement, testing rule of law in Israel
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Israel expels residents of Amona West Bank settlement, testing rule of law in Israel
- Israel approves large settlement -- first new settlement in West Bank in decades
****
**** Israel expels residents of Amona West Bank settlement, testing rule of law in Israel
****
![[Image: g170201b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170201b.jpg)
Jewish settlers lock arms inside a house as Israeli security forces try to evict them. (EPA)
Under court order, Israeli security forces began on Wednesday the
forced eviction of settlers from the Amona settlement in the West
Bank.
In 2014, Israel's High Court ruled that the Jewish settlement had been
built on private Palestinian land, and that the settlement was
illegal. The court ordered the government to evacuate and demolish
the community by December 25, 2016. But under fierce pressure from
settlers and their Knesset supporters, the government in late December
secured a 45-day extension from the court until February 8.
Israel's government had hoped that the expulsion would go smoothly, as
they had made an agreement that the evacuated settlers could move to
an adjacent plot of land on the same hilltop as Amona. However, local
Palestinians objected to this plan, saying that the adjacent plot was
also privately owned by Palestinians, and an Israeli human rights
group Yesh Din petitioned the court on behalf of the Palestinians to
prevent this agreement. Last month, the court agreed with the
Palestinians, and issued a temporary injunction halting the
construction of the new settlements.
So Israel's government had to back off from the offer of the adjacent
settlement, and replaced it with an offer to move to the Ofra
settlement, which was farther away but was considered legal under
Israeli law. This new offer was considered unacceptable by Amona
residents, although it was finally accepted on Wednesday.
Amona activists set up makeshift roadblocks and other defenses, as an
army of thousands of unarmed police officers on Wednesday came to
Amona to carry out the evacuation and demolition orders. By
Wednesday evening, 20 police officers were injured and 12 protesters
were arrested.
Pinchas Vallerstein, who represents the Jewish settlers, was unhappy
about the evacuation, but said that it was necessary:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"If you want to live in a democratic society and
> that’s important to you, you can disagree with a decision that the
> court makes, but at the end of the day, you have to live by
> it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
However, Abdulrahman Saleh, the mayor or a nearby Palestinian town,
has little faith in Israel's legal system. He says,
> [indent] <QUOTE>"I feel the democracy in Israel is just for their
> people. But for Palestinians, either in [historical Palestine] or
> here – it is like [Syria's president] Bashar al-Assad, it’s
> dictatorial. And for their people, it is 100 percent
> democracy."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Times of Israel and CS Monitor
Related Articles
****
**** Israel approves large settlement -- first new settlement in West Bank in decades
****
For the first time in 20 years, Israel announced that it will build a
new settlement in the West Bank. Previous announcements of new
settlers' homes in the West Bank have been homes added to existing
settlements.
The new settlement will have 3,000 homes. This is the third
announcement of this type since Donald Trump became president on
January 20. The previous announcements were for 2,500 housing units
in the West Bank, and 550 in East Jerusalem. At the time that the
2,500 housing units were approved, Israel's prime minister Benjamin
Netanyahu said that the expansion was just a "first taste."
Many people believe Netanyahu is pursuing an extremely aggressive new
settlement building policy because Trump is more sympathetic to
settlement construction than Barack Obama. According to Palestinian
official Hanan Ashrawi:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"The silence of the new American government, including
> those who actively support the settlements in the White House and
> the administration as a whole, has emboldened Netanyahu to persist
> with his settlement activities."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Israel claims that the new West Bank settlements are legal under
international law, but many in the international community disagree,
saying not only that they're illegal but also that they're a barrier
to a "two-state" peace deal. This refers to the fantasy that there
will be some kind of negotiation that will lead to an agreement that
Israel and a Palestinian state will exist side-by-side in peace and
harmony. Generational Dynamics predicts that Arabs and Jews will
re-fight the 1948 genocidal war between Arabs and Jews that followed
the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
BBC
and CNN and Jerusalem Post
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Amona, West Bank, Benjamin Netanyahu, Ofra,
Hanan Ashrawi, Pinchas Vallerstein, Abdulrahman Saleh
Permanent web link to this article
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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Posts: 2,751
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*** 3-Feb-17 World View -- Hundreds of thousands of people protest left-wing corruption in Romania
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Hundreds of thousands of people protest left-wing corruption in Romania
- Massive Romanian protests linked to 1989 ouster of violent dictator
****
**** Hundreds of thousands of people protest left-wing corruption in Romania
****
![[Image: g170202b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170202b.jpg)
Around 150,000 people protested in Romania's capital city Bucharest on Wednesday (Al Jazeera)
Hundreds of thousands of people turned out on Wednesday in cities
across Romania to protest a new decree by the center-left Social
Democratic Party (PSD). The new decree permits corruption by
government officials.
Although the PSD holds a parliamentary majority after winning an
election last month, leaders of the party are currently facing
corruption charges that bar them serving as ministers. In particular,
PSD chairman in Liviu Dragnea would become prime minister, but in
April 2016 he received a two-year suspended jail sentence for vote
rigging.
The new decree would change the law so that Dragnea would be cleared
of his suspended jail sentence, allowing him to become prime minister.
The law would also free dozens of his left-wing cronies, such as Dan
Voiculescu, currently serving 10 years for abuse of power and money
laundering. Euro News and Reuters
****
**** Massive Romanian protests linked to 1989 ouster of violent dictator
****
The protests are the biggest since the 1989 revolution. At that time,
the country was in the grip of a vicious Stalinist dictator, Nicolae
Ceausescu. Few dared to protest because the Secret Police would jail,
torture and kill them. However, a spontaneous protest of hundreds of
thousands of people began to demand the ouster of Ceausescu, forcing
him to try to flee with his wife Elena. They were quickly captured,
tried, and then executed on Christmas Day 1989.
Since then, the government has been one of the most corrupt in the
world, with the politicians governing the country having stolen as
much as possible, with the help of people from the former communist
party and the former secret police of Ceausescu's reign.
When Romania joined the European Union in 2007, it was under the
condition that Romania would institute severe reforms in the
administration of justice and in government corruption. The European
Commission has been closely monitoring Romania each year since then,
to chart progress in judicial reform and the fight against corruption.
The most recent EC report, issued just two weeks ago, documented
progress in many areas, but still concluded: "Corruption prevention is
still weak and is not yet established as a core obligation of public
administration."
Romania's government announced the new changes in the law just as the
EC report was published. The new law is a major reversal of Romania's
programs to reduce corruption. Since Romania was admitted to the EU
on the condition that judicial and government corruption be reduced to
international norms, Romania's membership in the EU might be in
jeopardy, if it weren't for the fact that EU leaders are more
concerned in today's post-Brexit world that the EU might fall apart
anyway. Deutsche Welle and European Commission and Transparency International and The 1989 Romanian Revolution and the Fall of Ceausescu
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Romania, Liviu Dragnea,
Social Democratic Party, PSD, Dan Voiculescu,
Nicolae Ceausescu
Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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Posts: 868
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(02-02-2017, 10:55 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 3-Feb-17 World View -- Hundreds of thousands of people protest left-wing corruption in Romania
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Hundreds of thousands of people protest left-wing corruption in Romania
- Massive Romanian protests linked to 1989 ouster of violent dictator
****
**** Hundreds of thousands of people protest left-wing corruption in Romania
****
Around 150,000 people protested in Romania's capital city Bucharest on Wednesday (Al Jazeera)
Hundreds of thousands of people turned out on Wednesday in cities
across Romania to protest a new decree by the center-left Social
Democratic Party (PSD). The new decree permits corruption by
government officials.
Although the PSD holds a parliamentary majority after winning an
election last month, leaders of the party are currently facing
corruption charges that bar them serving as ministers. In particular,
PSD chairman in Liviu Dragnea would become prime minister, but in
April 2016 he received a two-year suspended jail sentence for vote
rigging.
The new decree would change the law so that Dragnea would be cleared
of his suspended jail sentence, allowing him to become prime minister.
The law would also free dozens of his left-wing cronies, such as Dan
Voiculescu, currently serving 10 years for abuse of power and money
laundering. Euro News and Reuters
****
**** Massive Romanian protests linked to 1989 ouster of violent dictator
****
The protests are the biggest since the 1989 revolution. At that time,
the country was in the grip of a vicious Stalinist dictator, Nicolae
Ceausescu. Few dared to protest because the Secret Police would jail,
torture and kill them. However, a spontaneous protest of hundreds of
thousands of people began to demand the ouster of Ceausescu, forcing
him to try to flee with his wife Elena. They were quickly captured,
tried, and then executed on Christmas Day 1989.
Since then, the government has been one of the most corrupt in the
world, with the politicians governing the country having stolen as
much as possible, with the help of people from the former communist
party and the former secret police of Ceausescu's reign.
When Romania joined the European Union in 2007, it was under the
condition that Romania would institute severe reforms in the
administration of justice and in government corruption. The European
Commission has been closely monitoring Romania each year since then,
to chart progress in judicial reform and the fight against corruption.
The most recent EC report, issued just two weeks ago, documented
progress in many areas, but still concluded: "Corruption prevention is
still weak and is not yet established as a core obligation of public
administration."
Romania's government announced the new changes in the law just as the
EC report was published. The new law is a major reversal of Romania's
programs to reduce corruption. Since Romania was admitted to the EU
on the condition that judicial and government corruption be reduced to
international norms, Romania's membership in the EU might be in
jeopardy, if it weren't for the fact that EU leaders are more
concerned in today's post-Brexit world that the EU might fall apart
anyway. Deutsche Welle and European Commission and Transparency International and The 1989 Romanian Revolution and the Fall of Ceausescu
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Romania, Liviu Dragnea,
Social Democratic Party, PSD, Dan Voiculescu,
Nicolae Ceausescu
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
-- oh Christ. & l thought our Govt was bad 
 my 2 yr old Niece/yr old Nephew 2020
Posts: 2,751
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(01-28-2017, 04:25 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > By the way, my China-Russia article cross-posted in the Breitbart
> National Security section has drawn hundreds of comments. As
> usual, they range from loony to extremely intelligent and
> well-researched. Anyone interested in more commentary on this
> subject should check that out.
> http://www.breitbart.com/national-securi...k-america/
(01-31-2017, 01:50 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I looked at your link, though the signal to noise ratio in the
> comments was not high enough to sift through it thoroughly.
> I would still be interested in understanding better why you think
> the sides will work out the way you do. A link to earlier
> discussion would be great.
I've written about this subject so many times that I have no idea what
I could add that's new or different. Here's a summary behind the
reasoning that I've posted a number of times:
China is very closely allied with Pakistan, which is very closely
allied with the Sunni states. China and India are bitter enemies, as
are Pakistan and India. Russia and China have been historic enemies
for centuries, with Russia fighting Genghis Khan's Mongols in the
west, and fighting Chinese expansionism in the (far) east. Russia is
also extremely xenophobic towards the Sunni Muslims. Russia and India
are very closely allied, and India is very closely allied with Iran,
as Hindus have been allied with Shia Muslims going back to the Battle
of Karbala. So if you go through that list and connect the dots, then
the US is going to be allied with India, Russia and Iran, versus
China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim states. Just remember that
Russia was our bitter enemy before WW II, was our ally during WW II,
and was our bitter enemy after WW II. You can't make judgments from
today's fatuous political alignments to how nations will act when
they're forced to make hard choices in the context of an existential
crisis, a generational crisis war. These major decisions are made by
the populations, large generations of people, not by a few politicians
when a nation's existence and its way of life are threatened, and
those decisions are usually made by feelings that go back for
centuries.
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What Chinese expansionism in the Far East has Russia historically been fighting? Why are you conflating the Mongols (actually led by Ogedai at the time, Genghis Khan having died several years before the invasion of Rus) with the Chinese?
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(02-03-2017, 02:14 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: What Chinese expansionism in the Far East has Russia historically been fighting? Why are you conflating the Mongols (actually led by Ogedai at the time, Genghis Khan having died several years before the invasion of Rus) with the Chinese?
** 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect and attack America
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e170127
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(02-03-2017, 02:18 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: (02-03-2017, 02:14 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: What Chinese expansionism in the Far East has Russia historically been fighting? Why are you conflating the Mongols (actually led by Ogedai at the time, Genghis Khan having died several years before the invasion of Rus) with the Chinese?
** 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect and attack America
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e170127
Right, so, Russian expansionism, then. Do you remember the bit where I pointed out that they had actually settled all of their border disputes over a decade ago?
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(02-03-2017, 02:23 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: (02-03-2017, 02:18 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: (02-03-2017, 02:14 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: What Chinese expansionism in the Far East has Russia historically been fighting? Why are you conflating the Mongols (actually led by Ogedai at the time, Genghis Khan having died several years before the invasion of Rus) with the Chinese?
** 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect and attack America
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e170127
Right, so, Russian expansionism, then. Do you remember the bit where I pointed out that they had actually settled all of their border disputes over a decade ago?
Yeah .... I guess I never really believed that.
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/russia/20170126.aspx
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