02-05-2017, 10:06 PM
Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory
›
Fourth Turning Forums
›
Theories Of History
Generational Dynamics World View
Generational Dynamics World View
Thread Rating:
|
Generational Dynamics World View
|
02-05-2017, 11:16 PM
*** 6-Feb-17 World View -- Trump will honor Australia refugee deal, despite calling it 'worst deal ever'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Trump will honor Australia refugee deal, despite calling it 'worst deal ever' **** ![[Image: g170205b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170205b.jpg) Australia's refugee detention center on the Pacific island of Nauru Australian officials, led by Australia's prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, have said that the plan to resettle up the 1,250 refugees from Australia in the United States had been "confirmed several times over" by Donald Trump administration officials. The deal was made in November by President Barack Obama in the waning days of his administration. The US will take 1,250 refugees that Australia has sent to two "detention centers" on Pacific islands, one on Papua New Guinea's (PNG's) Manus Island, and one on the island nation of Nauru, under agreements reached with both countries. The reason that they had been sent to detention centers is not because they were known to have committed crimes, but because they had arrived by boats run by human traffickers. Australia has refused to let them resettle on Australian soil in order to discourage human trafficking, and the policy has actually been very successful in that regard. Nonetheless, the detention centers are considered to be violations of international law for several reasons, including the fact that they're described as filthy and rat-infested, with numerous stories of beatings, torture, and sexual abuse. Although the deal was announced in November, it's been mostly ignored until last week when president Donald Trump held a phone conversation with Australia's president Malcolm Turnbull. The mainstream media described the phone call as contention, and claimed that Trump had hung up on Turnbull, something that both Trump and Turnbull have derided as "fake news." Trump characterized the refugee deal as "the worst deal ever," and there was speculation that Trump would cancel the deal. However, Trump took the position that he was bound by the international agreements made by the previous administration, and he has confirmed that the US will take in up to 1,250 of these refugees, after subjecting each of them to "extreme vetting." Australian Broadcasting and Business Insider and CNBC Related Articles **** **** Australian politics in turmoil over refugee deal **** Australian politics were already pretty toxic over the use of the Pacific island refugee detention centers, but the news about the Trump-Turnbull phone call and the new attention given to the US-Australia refugee deal has caused additional turmoil:
With regard to the last point, the Trump-Turnbull phone call was not the only event in the last week to reignite the refugee debate. A 37 year old woman refugee known only as "Dee" had requested in December to be flown from the Nauru detention center to Australia to care for a high-risk pregnancy. Australia refused, infuriating activists, but finally was forced on Friday to permit her to come to a hospital in Brisbane. Ironically, citizens of Nauru may be approved for transfer to Australian hospitals, but since Dee was a refugee, her transfer was not approved (until Friday). Canberra Times and Special Broadcasting Service (Australia) and Stuff (New Zealand) and BBC and Red Flag Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, Malcolm Turnbull, Papua New Guinea, PNG, Manus Island, Nauru Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
02-06-2017, 06:45 AM
(02-05-2017, 07:43 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Or, you know, it could mean that some of them don't participate at all. Just because India and Pakistan go to war, or the Chinese and the US go to war, or the US and Iran go to war, does not mean that everyone else on the planet is obligated to pick sides and immediately attack one of their neighbors in a fit of hysteria. I mean, really, is that how you imagine the world works? India and Pakistan go to war, and China and Russia are going to look at each other and go, "To hell with it, we should go to war, too! With each other! Sure, we've been cooperating against the Americans for years now, spent decades resolving outstanding issues, and they're still our primary geopolitical concern. But we can't just get left out like this. The missiles are launching in five minutes!"? The only way what you are talking about makes sense is if you assume that every country on the planet is run by a complete lunatic. Popular hysteria plays a part, but it isn't just a random spasm, it's a sign of pressure that has been building up for years. Absolutely no "reference" you've cited bears out your conclusion that these things happen out of the blue. This is a great post and the shortcomings of GD are also apparent in Xenakis' analysis of Past wars. Take his explanation for WW1 and WW2; Hitler just didn't appear out of the blue. JohnX completely omits the role WW1 and the way that war ended in particular shaped Germany and set the stage for the rise of the Nazis. JohnX mentions that Germany Broke the treaty signed in 1919 but completely omits the fact that the 1919 treaty was a diktat imposed on Germany under duress and that any German government would have probably broke the treaty a soon as their country was strong enough to challenge it.
02-07-2017, 01:12 AM
*** 7-Feb-17 World View -- Tensions rise between China and Trump administration
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China sails warships near Japan's Senkaku Islands **** ![[Image: g170206b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170206b.jpg) Senkaku Islands In a show of military force, China sailed three warships past the Senkaku Islands on Monday, just two days after Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis visited Japan and reaffirmed the US commitment to defend the islands if attacked by China. Although the Senkaku Islands are just a collection of large, barren rocks, it's believed that they lie in a region with vast oil and gas reserves. Japan says that the islands have been their sovereign territory since the 1800s. China says that they've been their sovereign territory since "ancient times," and that their claims are "indisputable," but China says exactly the same things about any other country's territory that it wants to confiscate. China's claims in the South China Sea are not only "disputable," they're also illegal according to a ruling by a United Nations court in the Hague. Some of China's "ironclad proof" was investigated by the BBC and found to be a hoax. The United States has taken no position on whether Japan or China own the Senkaku Islands, but have agreed that Japan is currently administering the islands. During the early part of the administration of President Barack Obama, there was some question whether Obama would agree to defend the islands under the US-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security that was signed in 1960. The issue was cleared up in April 2014 during a visit by Obama to Japan, he announced, "The policy of the United States is clear -- the Senkaku Islands are administered by Japan and therefore fall within the scope of Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security. And we oppose any unilateral attempts to undermine Japan’s administration of these islands." The administration of President Donald Trump once again reaffirmed the US defense of the Senkaku Islands last week when ]US Defense Secretary James Mattis visited Japan and said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"I made clear that our long-standing policy on the > Senkaku Islands stands -- the US will continue to recognize > Japanese administration of the islands and as such Article 5 of > the US-Japan Security Treaty applies."<END QUOTE>[/indent] China's Foreign Ministry responded quickly: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Diaoyu [Senkaku] and its affiliated islands have been > Chinese territory since ancient times. These are historical facts > that cannot be changed. The so-called US-Japan security treaty was > a product of the Cold War, and it should not harm China's > territorial sovereignty and legitimate rights > > We urge the US side to adopt a responsible attitude and stop > making wrong remarks on the issue of the sovereignty of Diaoyu > Islands."<END QUOTE>[/indent] It's getting very tiresome to hear that China always describe their empty claims as indisputable facts, but the real concerns is that the Chinese are becoming so angry and frustrated that they'll take real military action. Sending three warships near the islands, as they did on Monday, is harmless as far as it goes, but with nationalistic feelings high in both China and Japan, a miscalculation leading to a military clash is a real possibility. CNN and Fox News Related Articles
**** **** Tensions rise between China and Trump administration **** US-China tensions have been growing steadily for years, especially as China has built illegal artificial islands and illegal military bases in the South China Sea. But these tensions seem to have taken a major spurt since Donald Trump became president, because of Trump's willingness to go much farther than Obama in challenging "politically correct" norms. Even before taking office, Trump accepted a phone call from Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai has refused to endorse the "one-China policy" that precludes Taiwan's independence, and Trump has said that the one-China policy is open for negotiation. Younger generations in Taiwan increasingly favor independence, and it's clear to China that time is not on their side. Early last month, during his confirmation hearing for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson said that China's artificial islands and military bases in the South China Sea were an "illegal" activity and added: > [indent]<QUOTE>"We're going to have to send China a clear signal that > first, the island-building stops and second, your access to those > islands also is not going to be allowed."<END QUOTE>[/indent] An editorial in Chinese state media said, "Unless Washington plans to wage a large-scale war in the South China Sea, any other approaches to prevent Chinese access to the islands will be foolish." This talk of war has led to some media questions about how ready China is for war. China has only one aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, but it's much smaller than US aircraft carriers, having been purchased from the Soviet Union in 1988. The Liaoning can carry up to 24 fighter jets and about 12 helicopters, while U.S. Navy’s current Nimitz-class warships, such as the USS Ronald Reagan, stationed in Japan, can handle more than 60 aircraft. An even larger carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, will be put into service in 2017. That would indicate that China is far behind the United States in sea power, but the first of two new all-Chinese aircraft carriers, the Shandong-1, is expected to begin sea trials this year. People frequently point out to me that China would not attack the United States because the US has a superior military. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that makes sense for most wars, but not for generational crisis wars. When America's South attacked Fort Sumter, launching the American Civil War, it was predictable that the North would win because it was three times as big, but the South attacked anyway. When Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, it was predictable that America would win because it was five times as big, but Japan attacked anyway. As a population, China is in a highly emotional state right now. They've become extremely nationalistic. Their younger generations are looking for action, believing that China is strong enough to beat the US. On the US side, most people believe that President Trump means business in a way that President Obama never did, and that Trump may well take some military action to fulfill Rex Tillerson's threat to prevent China from accessing its artificial islands in the South China Sea. Generational Dynamics predicts that the US and China are going to war. It's impossible to predict what will trigger that war, or when it will begin. But whether it begins next month, next year, or thereafter, it will be part of the greatest world war in history. VOA and The Diplomat and The Statesman Related Articles KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Senkaku Islands, China, U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, Jim Mattis, Rex Tillerson, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, Liaoning, Shandong-1, USS Ronald Reagan, USS Gerald Ford Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
02-07-2017, 08:12 AM
(02-05-2017, 09:24 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I don't know what your definition of "planning war" is; that's why Well, you're right, I suppose every country is always "planning war" in the sense of preparing to defend itself in case of war. In the case of China, it's a lot more than just building one weapons system after another whose only purpose is to destroy American cities, military bases, and aircraft carriers. It's the series of aggressive actions that China is taking on all its borders, similar to Hitler's actions in the late 1930s. I think that with some thought, one could distinguish between defensively or offensively "planning for war." (02-05-2017, 09:24 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Except in the deterministic sense that what happened is obviously That's an interesting answer, not one that I was expecting. You're saying that if a communist Hitler had risen in France who was worse than Germany's Hitler, then we would have sided with France. The reason that I asked the question was to show that the choice of sides in a generational crisis war is pretty much predetermined. If we assume that there was no such French communist Hitler, then I would say that the choice of France our ally was predetermined. But if you're going to make that kind of assumption, then you could also have assumed that America's leader could have become another Hitler, and sided with the Nazis. So I would say two things. I think that if you look back in history and analyze the 100 years war, the 30 years war, the war of the Spanish succession, the French Revolution, the American Civil war, WW I -- then Hitler could not have arisen in America, Britain or France, and only Germany has the history and geography that would have permitted the rise of Hitler. And second, under those circumstances, we could never have sided with the Nazis. So maybe I asked the question the wrong way. I should have asked: Is there any scenario where we would have sided with Britain's enemy, whether Germany or France, assuming that Britain maintained it's historic government (and that there was no British Hitler). I would argue that we would have chosen whatever side Britain was on, and that there were no circumstances where we would be joining some other country in bombing London. The same kind of reasoning could be used today. Could we side with China and Pakistan against India? I don't believe so. Could Russia join China and Pakistan in war against India and Iran? Once again, I don't see any reasonable scenario where that's possible. I believe that the alignments that I've been describing for ten years -- the US, India, Russia and Iran versus China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries -- are pre-determined and will not change.
02-07-2017, 08:13 AM
(02-05-2017, 09:39 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > -- what if Grandpa Bush had been successful in overthrowing What does "overthrow" mean? As I wrote in my previous answer, I believe that we would have sided with whichever side Britain was on, and that there's no scenario where we could have joined the Nazis in bombing London.
02-07-2017, 08:17 AM
(02-05-2017, 09:32 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > What do you make of this? (02-05-2017, 09:42 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > This is nothing new in the sense that the Houthis have been This is turning out to be a very strange story. This story is being reported by multiple media sources --- al-Masdar, al-Manar, Mehr, Ahlul Bayt News Agency, Press TV -- but all of these media sources are linked to Iran. Mainstream media sources are almost completely ignoring the story, except for an occasion report that describe it as a "claim" by Houthis.
02-07-2017, 09:41 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-07-2017, 05:46 PM by Cynic Hero '86.)
Human Rights doctrine is a tyranny imposed by selfish tyrannical boomers. Because boomers were largely educated by refugees from the losing sides of the Russian and Chinese Civil wars and were therefore given a predominately negative view of the governments there. Because of that Boomers have never truly accepted the legitimacy of either China or Russia's governments. Xers and Millies have however largely grown up with those Countries having always had more or less the same regimes those countries have now. The younger generations in the west do not regard the rise of Putin as some kind of moral failure on the part of the Russian people or seek to replace the PRC with the ROC in China. This is shown by the new rights willingness to form an partnership with Putin and how opposition has generated from both the traditional boomer dominated right and the boomer dominated left.
02-07-2017, 03:54 PM
(02-07-2017, 08:17 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(02-05-2017, 09:32 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > What do you make of this? -- l 've been checking the BBC, they aren't reporting it. Could it be fake news?  my 2 yr old Niece/yr old Nephew 2020
02-07-2017, 11:06 PM
*** 8-Feb-17 World View -- Investigation reveals depraved new atrocities by Syria's Bashar al-Assad
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Investigation reveals depraved new atrocities by Syria's Bashar al-Assad **** ![[Image: g170207b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170207b.jpg) Each week, up to 50 people at the Saydnaya prison were taken out of their prison cells for arbitrary trials, beaten, then hanged (AFP) Just when you think you know all the depraved atrocities that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has committed, new evidence leaks out that shows even more grotesque actions by this psychopathic killer and war criminal. These actions began in 2011, when there were thousands of people peacefully demonstrating against al-Assad. They took place in secret in Saydnaya Prison, a facility that al-Assad turned into a "human slaughterhouse," according to Amnesty International, based on interviews with 84 people, including 31 former inmates, four former guards, three former judges and three doctors. Thousands of these peaceful demonstrators were brought to Saydnaya for extreme torture and execution. The prisoners were people who were perceived to oppose the government in some way. They came from all sectors of Syrian society. Many are demonstrators, long-time political dissidents, human rights defenders, journalists, doctors, humanitarian aid workers and students. According to one former inmate, they were tortured from the moment they arrived: > [indent]<QUOTE>"You are thrown to the ground and they use different > instruments for the beatings: electric cables with exposed copper > wire ends — they have little hooks so they take a part of your > skin — normal electric cables, plastic water pipes of different > sizes and metal bars. Also they have created what they call the > “tank belt”, which is made out of tire that has been cut into > strips. ... They make a very specific sound; it sounds like a > small explosion. I was blindfolded the whole time, but I would try > to see somehow. All you see is blood: your own blood, the blood of > others. After one hit, you lose your sense of what is > happening. You’re in shock. But then the pain comes."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Prisoners are stripped naked and thrown into cells for months. Prisoners were severely beaten regularly. Prisoners were forced to rape each other. There were starved and given little food and water. The only escape was death, with regular mass hangings of up to 50 at a time. At least 17,723 people were killed in government custody between March 2011 and December 2015, an average of 300 deaths each month. As far as is known, these actions are still going on today, in Saydnaya and other Syria prisons. This is not the first time al-Assad's horrors have leaked out into the public. In 2014, an al-Assad defector supplied 55,000 photos of about 11,000 men whom al-Assad had tortured using electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation, and beating on prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale. Al-Assad was so pleased and proud of this torture that he made sure each act was photographed. Throughout my lifetime, I've heard people describe the Holocaust and say, "Never again!" But al-Assad is a man who gets obvious pleasure from gouging out people's eyes or pulling out their fingernails, or sending missiles into school dormitories to kill children, or dropping barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill large groups of people. He considers all Sunni Muslims to be cockroaches to be exterminated. Bashar al-Assad is the greatest genocidal monster in today's world, comparable to Hitler, Pol Pot, Mao Zedong and Stalin from the last century. There is no mass weapon of destruction, nor any gruesome form of torture, that he won't use to satisfy his psychopathy. Amnesty International and CNN and Vox Related Articles
**** **** Epicenter of Syrian conflict moves from Aleppo to Idlib and al-Bab **** The destruction of East Aleppo was supposed to be the shock and awe that brought Syria's civil war to an end, but that hasn't happened yet. Tens of thousands of residents of Aleppo have fled to Idlib, which is now being controlled by a combination of "moderate" anti-Assad rebels, fighters from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and and fighters from Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front, now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS). Once again you have air strikes killing civilians. Although the air strikes appear to be from Russian warplanes, once again you have Russia denying that it's conducting air strikes. In Aleppo that would have meant that Syria's warplanes were conducting the airstrikes, but in Idlib there's the complication that US warplanes are attacking ISIS targets. There's also continued fighting in northern Syria, led by Turkey's Operation Euphrates Shield. The fighting is now centered around the city of al-Bab. At the beginning of the operation in August of last year, the main fighters were the Free Syrian Army (FSA) of "moderate" anti-Assad rebels. But now in al-Bab, it's elite Turkish army fighters leading the effort, supported by Turkish fighter jets. This situation is a time bomb for several reasons:
BBC and AP and Al Jazeera Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Saydnaya Prison, Amnesty International, Aleppo, Idlib, al-Bab, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Operation Euphrates Shield, Kurds, People’s Protection Units, YPG, Turkey, Russia, Iran, Free Syrian Army, FSA Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
02-08-2017, 10:09 AM
Needless to say, I'm fascinated by this sudden interest in Steve
Bannon and The Fourth Turning, and by reactions to it in view of Steve Bannon's interest. Last week, there was an article about Steve Bannon in Time Magazine that mentioned the Fourth Turning: http://time.com/4657665/steve-bannon-donald-trump/ This week there was a major analytical article by Linette Lopez in Business Insider. Unfortunately, she has no idea what she's talking about, and knows absolutely nothing about generational theory, although she thinks she does. http://www.businessinsider.com/book-stev...ing-2017-2 Her thesis is that Steve Bannon wants to use this theory to bring about a world war. That's crazy. What generational theory does is predict that a world war is coming, whether we like it or not, and tells us to prepare for it. The Fourth Turning was the foundational work for generational theory. It was a brilliant work when it was written by Neil Howe and William Strauss in the early 1990s, but they applied it only to English and American history since the 1400s, and today their work is badly out of date. In 2003 I took over further development of generational theory, corrected a number of the early errors, and expanded it to all countries and places at all times in history. I launched the website http://GenerationalDynamics.com, which has been a platform of continuing development of generational theory. There are now almost 4,000 articles containing hundreds of analyses and predictions, all of which have come true or are trending true. None has been proven wrong. No web site, analyst, journalist, or politician has come even close to the analytical and forecasting success of GenerationalDynamics.com. It's a truly historic development. It's true that generational theory predicts a world war. But it makes no difference whether Trump or Clinton had won the presidential election, because no politician can either cause or prevent a world war. However, to use an analogy, if your boat is sailing through a storm, then the boat captain can neither cause nor prevent a storm, but if a storm is coming, then one captain may do a better job than another in guiding the boat through the storm. The crazy thing would be for the boat captain to know that a storm is coming, but ignore it completely, and make no preparations whatsoever. My personal belief is that America will be best guided through the coming storm by a president who has the benefit of an understanding of Generational Dynamics, because that's the only methodology that describes what's actually going on in the world. So the reason that Linette Lopez is completely wrong is that she has no understanding whatsoever of generational theory. She has no clue. Lopez would tell a boat captain not to prepare for a storm, even if the weather forecast says that a storm is coming. She thinks we should just all be Pollyannas and pretend that nothing bad will ever happen. Linette Lopez is recommending the path to total disaster. Ironically, Neil Howe himself has almost completely abandoned his own Fourth Turning theory by supporting views similar to those of Linette Lopez. This is explained by the fact that Howe supports Democrats, and so is committed to opposing anything from Donald Trump, even when it's his own Fourth Turning theory. This is just one more of the bizarre twists that are common in today's world. Generational Dynamics says that a world war is coming, and that no politician can either cause or prevent it. But what politicians can do is prepare for it, and that's what we can hope that Steve Bannon and Donald Trump are doing, to the benefit of all of us.
02-08-2017, 12:01 PM
(02-07-2017, 03:54 PM)Marypoza Wrote:(02-07-2017, 08:17 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(02-05-2017, 09:32 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > What do you make of this? If the story were not true, then the Saudis would have denied it by now, which they haven't. Striking a Saudi city is a major coup for the Houthis.
02-08-2017, 12:34 PM
(02-07-2017, 08:13 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(02-05-2017, 09:39 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > -- what if Grandpa Bush had been successful in overthrowing -- Grampa Bush was plotting to oust Roosevelt from power in the 1930s. He was thwarted by Gen Smedley Butler. You can read about it here: https://truthandshadows.wordpress.com/20...ate-elite/ my 2 yr old Niece/yr old Nephew 2020
02-08-2017, 02:35 PM
Also JohnX seems convinced on certain Alignments of countries. Take for example China's military alliances, China has traditionally (for most of the last 35 years or so) relied on Iran as its primary partner for military alliances. Saudi Arabia has usually been a distant second in terms of technology sharing for China than Iran has Been. Turkey has traditionally been Firmly in the US sphere. Yet JohnX says that Russia and the US will ally and that Iran would be aligned to the west, while turkey and Saudi Arabia, two countries that have been western aligned since before WW2 would suddenly ally with China against both the West and Russia?
02-08-2017, 04:55 PM
I almost forgot about this, but in 2014 I wrote a lengthy article on
how a world war with China would unfold, with several historical parallels: ** 21-Feb-14 World View -- U.S. naval intelligence chief confirms worst fears of China's military buildup ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e140221
02-08-2017, 09:08 PM
*** 9-Feb-17 World View -- Mainstream media frets over Steve Bannon, the Fourth Turning, and Donald Trump
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China-Philippines détente unravels over Scarborough Shoal **** ![[Image: g170208b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170208b.jpg) China's now-famous 'nine-dash line' illegally claims sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, including territories belonging to other nations (Reuters) When Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte announced last October that he was throwing the US military out of the Philippines and would be turning to China instead, I wrote that this flip-flop could not last for long, because the Philippine people had an overwhelmingly favorable view of the U.S., and a far less favorable view of China. It's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people. Last October, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said that the country would not allow the US military to use its base in the Philippines even for its freedom of navigation patrols in the South China Sea. Since then, Duterte has already been forced to backtrack on his threat to throw the US military out. Now Duterte's own ministers are expressing alarm that China may be building a new military base on Scarborough Shoal, which has been a fishing ground for Philippine fishermen for centuries. Now the very same Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana is now saying that China should not be permitted to build military facilities on Scarborough Shoal because, in combination with China's other illegal military bases, this would give China complete military control of the entire South China Sea: > [indent]<QUOTE>"They encroached. They occupied three islands [in the > Spratlys] plus they are trying to get Scarborough. So to us that > is unacceptable. > > If we allow them, they will build. That’s very, very disturbing. > Very much [more] disturbing than Fiery Cross because this is so > close to us. ... > > "The Americans, that’s their red line. Red line meaning you can’t > do that there, so they [China] did not do it. > > If we had a strong military presence [in the South China Sea], we > can stop them [China] but we don’t. I am still hoping in the > future some reasonable guy there in Beijing will come to see the > light that this is ours. That is shooting for the moon but who > knows?"<END QUOTE>[/indent] The "red line" refers to a warning that President Barack Obama gave to China's President Xi Jinping last year against building an artificial island at Scarborough Shoal. A Chinese military base on Scarborough Shoal would put Chinese fighter jets and missiles within easy striking distance of US forces that are stationed in the Philippines, as well as the Philippines' own forces. The shoal also commands the northeast exit of the sea, so a Chinese military outpost there could stop other countries' navies from traveling through the South China Sea. Early last month, during his confirmation hearing for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson said that China's artificial islands and military bases in the South China Sea were an "illegal" activity and added: > [indent]<QUOTE>"We're going to have to send China a clear signal that > first, the island-building stops and second, your access to those > islands also is not going to be allowed."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Chinese media have responded that the US cannot implement this threat without waging a large-scale war. On Wednesday, China's foreign ministry promised Peace In Our Time: "We are absolutely not interested in conflicts with other countries and call for maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea as this is in the interests of all states." International Business Times and AFP and Tass (Moscow) Related Articles
**** **** Mainstream media frets over Steve Bannon, the Fourth Turning, and Donald Trump **** Needless to say, I'm fascinated by the sudden interest by the mainstream media in Steve Bannon and The Fourth Turning. An article last week about Steve Bannon in Time mentioned the Fourth Turning. A more important article came out this week in the form of an analytical article by Linette Lopez in Business Insider. Unfortunately, she has no idea what she's talking about, and knows absolutely nothing about generational theory, although she thinks she does. Her thesis is that Steve Bannon wants to use this theory to bring about a world war. That's crazy. What generational theory does is predict that a world war is coming, whether we like it or not, and tells us to prepare for it. The Fourth Turning was the foundational work for generational theory. It was a brilliant work when it was written by Neil Howe and William Strauss in the early 1990s, but they applied it only to English and American history since the 1400s, and today their work is badly out of date. In 2003 I took over further development of generational theory, corrected a number of the early errors, and expanded it to all countries and places at all times in history. I launched the website http://GenerationalDynamics.com, which has been a platform of continuing development of generational theory. There are now almost 4,000 articles on the website containing hundreds of analyses and predictions, all of which have come true or are trending true. None has been proven wrong. No web site, analyst, journalist, or politician has come even close to the analytical and forecasting success of GenerationalDynamics.com. It's a truly historic development. It's true that generational theory predicts a new world war. But it makes no difference whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton had won the presidential election, because no politician can either cause or prevent a world war. However, to use an analogy, if your boat is sailing through a storm, then the boat captain can neither cause nor prevent a storm, but if a storm is coming, then one captain may do a better job than another in guiding the boat through the storm. The crazy thing would be for the boat captain to know that a storm is coming, but ignore it completely, and make no preparations whatsoever. My personal belief is that America will be best guided through the coming storm by a president who has the benefit of an understanding of Generational Dynamics, because that's the only methodology that describes what's actually going on in the world. So the reason that Linette Lopez is completely wrong is that she has no understanding whatsoever of generational theory. She has no clue. Lopez would tell a boat captain not to prepare for a storm, even if the weather forecast says that a storm is coming. She thinks we should just all be Pollyannas and pretend that nothing bad will ever happen. Linette Lopez is recommending the path to total disaster. Ironically, Neil Howe himself has almost completely abandoned his own Fourth Turning theory by supporting views similar to those of Linette Lopez. This is explained by the fact that Howe supports Democrats, and so is committed to opposing anything from Donald Trump, even when it's his own Fourth Turning theory. This is just one more of the bizarre twists that are common in today's world. Generational Dynamics says that a world war is coming, and that no politician can either cause or prevent it. But what politicians can do is prepare for it, and that's what we can hope that Steve Bannon and Donald Trump are doing, to the benefit of all of us. Business Insider and Time Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Philippines, Scarborough Shoal, China, Rodrigo Duterte, Delfin Lorenzana, Fiery Cross, South China Sea, Xi Jinping, Rex Tillerson, Steve Bannon, the Fourth Turning, Neil Howe, William Strauss, Linette Lopez Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
02-08-2017, 09:27 PM
(02-08-2017, 09:08 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 9-Feb-17 World View -- Mainstream media frets over Steve Bannon, the Fourth Turning, and Donald Trump -- my take on the Lopez article is that Bannon is going to misuse S&H, twist it for his own twisted purposes, so to speak. Much like Goebbles twisted Nostradamus for his twisted purposes. Speaking of which, you stated that even in a dictatorship, decisions are made by masses of ppl. Are you saying that the German people of that time were responsible for WW2 & death camps? Can you explain further plz? my 2 yr old Niece/yr old Nephew 2020
02-09-2017, 10:28 AM
(02-08-2017, 02:35 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Also JohnX seems convinced on certain Alignments of You answered your own question in the words "China has traditionally (for most of the last 35 years or so)." I sometimes joke about people who believe that "history always begins this morning." History did not begin 35 years ago. Particularly when you're talking about China, history began centuries or even millennia ago. You have to go back at least to WW I and WW II when you ask about these alignments. The last 35 years are irrelevant.
02-09-2017, 10:31 AM
(02-08-2017, 12:34 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > Grampa Bush was plotting to oust Roosevelt from power in the The point is that the coup attempt did not succeed, and could not have succeeded because the people would not have allowed it. America has gone through multiple traumas, including a civil war, assassination of Abraham Lincoln, assassination of JFK, forced resignation of Richard Nixon, impeachment of Bill Clinton. In each case, the government simply continued on as before. So even if Prescott Bush had achieved some kind of partial success, his coup attempt would have failed anyway. (02-08-2017, 09:27 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > Speaking of which, you stated that even in a dictatorship, Yes, of course. The German people were overwhelmingly supportive of the Holocaust, or it could not have succeeded. Kristallnacht occurred on November 10, 1938. Jewish businesses were smashed, some Jews were killed, and tens of thousands of Jews were arrested and sent to concentration camps. The Berlin correspondent of London's Daily Telegraph wrote: > <QUOTE>"Racial hatred and hysteria seemed to have taken > complete control of otherwise decent people. I saw fashionably > dressed women clapping their hands and screaming with glee, while > respectable middle-class mothers held up their babies to see the > 'fun.'"<END QUOTE> So yes, Hitler and Goebbles were following the will of the German people. It's like the Buddhists trying to exterminate the Rohingyas in Burma today. One way or another, the German Catholics were going to try to exterminate the Jews. If you're unable to grasp this kind of widespread vitriolic hatred, the same thing is happening today right in this country, right in this forum. In 2006, Hollywood came out with the movie Death of a President which portrayed (advocated) the assassination of President Bush. Numerous people on the left have referred to Tea Partiers as "teabaggers." Obama's pal, Teamsters Union leader James Hoffa, frequently called for violence against Republicans and Tea Partiers. Obama himself incited violence by blacks against police, and invited to the White House the violent, racist "Black Lives Matters" people who constantly incite violence by blacks. In postings in this forum in this and other threads, there's enormous vitriolic hatred directed at Trump. To show how completely ridiculous this is, someone who merely says that men should not be allowed to use the women's room is racist, sexist, homophobic, and so forth. And anyone who objects to any of this left wing stuff is immediately thrown into Hillary's "Basket of Deplorables" -- "racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic — you name it." So here's what you should do: Imagine taking all this vitriolic hatred directed at Bush, Republicans, Tea Partiers, Trump, and so forth, and putting into a single deplorable basket. Then transform that entire basket of vitriolic hatred into equivalent vitriolic hatred directed at Jews, and use a time machine to transfer it into Nazi Germany, and you can understand why the Holocaust was brought about by the German people, and that Hitler and Goebbles were just doing what the people wanted.
02-09-2017, 11:19 AM
(02-09-2017, 10:31 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(02-08-2017, 12:34 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > Grampa Bush was plotting to oust Roosevelt from power in the -- you think they knew what was really going in in those death camps? Maybe they wanted the Jews to just "go away", but not be tortured or anything JohnX Wrote:If you're unable to grasp this kind of widespread vitriolic hatred, --you're right, l'm unable to. That doesn't mean l'm unaware of it's existence, bcuz obviously it exists. But l can't fathom how ppl can (mis)treat other human beings the way they do JohnX Wrote:the same thing is happening today right in this country, right in this - mebbe.. l think they cranked it up a few notches my 2 yr old Niece/yr old Nephew 2020
|
|
« Next Oldest | Next Newest »
|
| Possibly Related Threads... | |||||
| Thread | Author | Replies | Views | Last Post | |
| Why the social dynamics viewpoint to the Strauss-Howe generational theory is wrong | Ldr | 5 | 5,224 |
06-05-2020, 10:55 PM Last Post: pbrower2a |
|
| Theory: cyclical generational hormone levels behind the four turnings and archetypes | Ldr | 2 | 3,600 |
03-16-2020, 06:17 AM Last Post: Ldr |
|
| The Fall of Cities of the Ancient World (42 Years) The Sacred Name of God 42 Letters | Mark40 | 5 | 5,127 |
01-08-2020, 08:37 PM Last Post: Eric the Green |
|
| Generational cycle research | Mikebert | 15 | 17,081 |
02-08-2018, 10:06 AM Last Post: pbrower2a |
|
|
Styxhexenhammer666 and his view of historical cycles. | Kinser79 | 0 | 3,477 |
08-27-2017, 06:31 PM Last Post: Kinser79 |
Users browsing this thread: 12 Guest(s)