Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 7-Jan-18 World View -- Syria's Bashar al-Assad targets civilians and hospitals in never-ending war of extermination

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's Bashar al-Assad targets civilians and hospitals in never-ending war of extermination
  
• Russia's 'de-escalation zones' turn into total farce
  

****
**** Syria's Bashar al-Assad targets civilians and hospitals in never-ending war of extermination
****


From November: Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad hug and say that the Syria war is at an end (AP)

I've written many times and given detailed examples of what happens to
countries following a generational crisis civil war. Such a war is
generally between two tribes or ethnic groups who have been neighbors
for decades, who intermarried, and whose children played together, but
then suddenly they turn on each other and commit atrocities, rapes,
murders, torture, mutilations and massacres on their former
neighbors, including women and children.

When such a war ends, someone, usually from the winning tribe, becomes
leader, and almost always this is someone who had directed or approved
these atrocities, rapes and massacres, and in his mind considers them
to have been completely justified. It should not be considered the
least bit surprising that such a person turns into sociopathic
monster, just like individuals like John Wayne Gacy, Ted Bundy,
Jeffrey Dahmer, and David Berkowitz.

The difference, of course, is that these individuals can carry out
further atrocities, rapes and mutilations only through their own
resources, while country leaders can turn the entire government into a
genocidal bulldozer. These include Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre
Nkurunziza in Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in
Uganda, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in DRC, or, outside
of Africa, Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Hun Sen in Cambodia. In the
last century, they include Josef Stalin and Mao Zedong.

So Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad is continuing with
full force his war of extermination against his historically hated
enemies, the Syrian Sunnis. He's made it clear repeatedly that he
considers them all to be the equivalent of cockroaches, and are to be
exterminated, just like cockroaches. Furthermore, he's receiving the
full support of Russia's Christian president Vladimir Putin, Iran's
Shia so-called cleric Seyed Ali Khamenei, and Lebanon's own
psychopathic Shia monster, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
These people all claim to have some level of piety, but if their
religions mean anything, then they'll all burn in hell for their
monstrous sins.

As I've written many times in the past, Bashar al-Assad is the worst
genocidal monster so far this century. The Syrian war began in 2011
when al-Assad ordered his army and air force to attack peacefully
protesting civilians, including women and children. Things really
worsened in August 2011, when al-Assad launched a massive military
assault on a large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia,
filled with tens of thousands of women and children Palestinians. He
dropped barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous
and chemical weapons onto innocent Sunni women and children, he
targeted bombs on schools and hospitals, and he used Sarin gas to kill
large groups of people.

It's almost unbelievable how much destruction al-Assad has caused.
Thanks to al-Assad, Putin and Khamenei, about 50,000 jihadist fighters
from 86 countries came to Syria, first to join the rebels fighting
al-Assad, then to join the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra, and the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Al-Assad
created the al-Nusra front and ISIS. He's created millions of
refugees that have flooded into neighboring countries, and over a
million have poured into Europe.

18 months ago, Bashar al-Assad, Putin, Khamenei and Nasrallah were
targeting East Aleppo in Syria, with 275,000 people, including huge
numbers of women and children. By the time it was over, there were
hundreds of thousands of deaths, and the city was almost completely
destroyed.

So now al-Assad, Putin, Khamenei and Nasrallah are doing the same
thing to Eastern Ghouta, with 400,000 people, including huge numbers
of women and children. Ghouta became world famous in 2013 because it
was the place where al-Assad used the WMD Sarin gas on ordinary
civilians.

Last week, at least 25 civilians were killed by regime and Russian
airstrikes, followed by 17 on Saturday.

Aid agencies have told the BBC that the airstrikes are particularly
targeting hospitals. At least 10 hospitals have been targeted by
airstrikes in the last two weeks. These include barrel bombs
targeting a maternity hospital, presumably because al-Assad believes
that the babies being born in these maternity hospitals are just baby
cockroaches, and they should be exterminated immediately.

So if it took al-Assad about six months to totally destroy East
Aleppo, with 275,000 people, then we can expect him to take about ten
months to similarly destroy Eastern Ghouta, with 400,000 people.
Al-Assad has a lot more women and children to kill, and a lot more
maternity hospitals to bomb, so it will take a while. BBC and
AFP and Reuters

****
**** Russia's 'de-escalation zones' turn into total farce
****

Al-Assad has indicated that he will next turn his attention to Idlib
and the neighboring parts of northwest Syria, now home to more than 2
million people, many of them refugees from East Aleppo and other
regions attacked by al-Assad.

According to Russians, Ghouta and Idlib were all supposed to be
"de-escalation zones," by agreement of Russia, Iran and Turkey in
meetings in Astana, Kazakhstan. I always said that those meetings and
agreements were a complete farce for the obvious reason that they
involved Russia, Iran and Turkey, but not the actual people fighting
on the ground, al-Assad's army and Sunni opposition fighters. And
we're seeing that farce now. The de-escalation agreements are
completely meaningless, since al-Assad never had any intention of
following them. That would have been like the U.S. and Mexico trying
to end World War II in Europe by signing a de-escalation agreement
with each other in Acapulco. It's just a complete farce.

Readers may recall that in November, Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin hugged each other,
and said the
war was over. Putin said:

<QUOTE>"I asked the Syrian president to stop by. I would
like to introduce you to people [al-Assad] who played a key role
in saving Syria.

Regarding our joint operation to fight terrorists in Syria, this
military operation is indeed coming to an end. I'm pleased to see
your willingness to work with everyone who wants peace and
settlement."<END QUOTE>

This can only be described as more high farce.

So the question is this: How long is this unbelievable carnage going
to go on? Bashar al-Assad has been killing innocent women and
children for seven years, and has created millions of refugees. Is he
going to be allowed to continue killing innocent women and children
for another seven years? How long will it be before anyone says,
Enough! Reuters and Al Jazeera and BBC (13-Dec-2017)

Related Articles

• Syria and Russia repeat Aleppo war crimes in massive destruction of Eastern Ghouta (06-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin hug and declare the end of war in Syria (27-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Syria and Russia see 'the light at the end of the tunnel' after Aleppo victory (18-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Farcical Syria peace process 'proximity talks' to begin this week in Geneva (25-Jan-2016)
  
  
• Russia uses the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter in Aleppo Syria (02-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Syria's 'peace conference' proceeds as total farce (29-Jan-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Iran, Hezbollah,
John Wayne Gacy, Ted Bundy, Jeffrey Dahmer, David Berkowitz,
Paul Biya, Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza, Burundi, Paul Kagame, Rwanda,
Yoweri Museveni, Uganda, Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe,
Joseph Kabila, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Hun Sen, Cambodia, Josef Stalin, Russia, Mao Zedong, China,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Russia, Iran, Astana, Kazakhstan, de-escalation zones,
Latakia, Aleppo, Eastern Ghouta, Hama, Idlib, barrel bombs,
chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous, Sarin gas,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

I can't figure out what you're talking about with the 1890s or the
1920s or the 1930s. I can't figure out which decade you're saying is
best, and have no clue what you're reasoning is, other than some
remark made by your great-great-aunt, or something like that. I think
you're trying to take some remark by your uncle's grandmother's third
cousin once removed and use it to prove that socialism is better than
capitalism.

No one claims that Capitalism is always 100% successful. Obviously it
isn't. I think it could be argued that Capitalism is at least 50%
successful all the time. But that's better than Socialism, which is
0% successful, and is 100% certain always to fail because of the
reasons I gave in my last message.

I've spent much of my life listening to leftists claim that Cuba was a
Socialist paradise. I don't see how anyone can say that life in Cuba
was ever better than life in any of the American decades, whether the
1890s, 1920s, 1930s, or other. People in Cuba were starved, jailed,
tortured and economically deprived. That's what always happens in
Socialism unless the country abandons Socialism, as Sweden did.

It's also worth pointing out that Capitalism is the economic system of
Freedom, while Socialism is the economic system of Dictatorship,
Control, and Oppression. That's perhaps another reason why Socialism
has a 100% failure rate.

When Cuba's Socialism collapsed in 2010, I wrote a lengthy article
about it:

** 16-Sep-10 News -- Cuba's seismic shift has global implications
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e100916

As I wrote yesterday, any Socialist economy requires a steady and
growing supply of regulators (bureaucrats) and other people's money.
The bureaucrats make it impossible for people to earn money, so other
people's money is required to keep it from collapsing.

Cuba, of course, had been surviving only because of an endless supply
of other people's money from the Soviet Union and then from Venezuela.
Even with those supplies of money, the Socialist economy collapsed in
2010.

In my 2010 article, I quoted at length the announcement from the Cuba
government. Maybe you should read it:

Government of Cuba Wrote:> After 52 years, the Cuban Revolution is a living and unshakable
> direction for the nation, and our people's will and determination
> to continue the construction of socialism, and make further
> progress in the development and updating of the economic model we
> must follow, and consolidate the gains achieved. ...

> Cuba faces the urgent need to move forward economically, better
> organize production, enhance productivity and raise reserves,
> improve discipline and efficiency and this is only possible
> through the dignified and devoted to our people. Today, the duty
> of the Cubans is to work and do it well, with seriousness and
> responsibility, and to make better use of resources available to
> better serve our needs.

> In order to update the economic model and economic projects for
> the 2011-2015 period, the guidelines call for the reduction of
> more than 500,000 workers in the public sector and in parallel the
> increase in non-state sector.

> The timetable for implementation [of the reduction] for agencies
> and businesses is the first quarter of 2011. ...

> Our state neither can nor should continue to burden companies and
> productive organizations with services and inflated budgets that
> weigh down the economy, are counterproductive, create bad habits
> and distort the behavior of workers. It is necessary to increase
> production and quality of services, reduce social spending and
> eliminate bulky improper gratuities, excessive subsidies.

> Hundreds of thousands of workers will move to self-employment in
> the coming years.

> Within the state sector, it will only be possible to go to places
> with a historical workforce deficit, such as agriculture,
> construction, teachers, police, industrial workers and others.

> A matter of singular importance is the salary. We must
> reinvigorate the socialist principle of distribution, to pay to
> each according to the quantity and quality of work provided.

> The unity of the Cuban workers and our people has been key to
> maximizing the gigantic edifice built by the Revolution and the
> changes that we are now undertaking she will continue to be our
> most important strategic weapon."

Nothing could better describe what Socialism does: "burden companies
and productive organizations with services and inflated budgets that
weigh down the economy, are counterproductive, create bad habits and
distort the behavior of workers." It could have been written by
Donald Trump if he didn't have dementia, and wasn't a child, and
wasn't mentally unstable, and if he knew how to read and write.

And the other thing is that Cuba had to lay off hundreds of thousands
of bureaucrats. This is exactly the point that I've been making --
Socialism requires a growing supply of other people's money and
regulators. Even with all the money Cuba was getting, the number of
bureaucrats with inflated budgets that weigh down the economy.

(01-06-2018, 12:35 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > He is the most despotic leader that America has known since at
> least George III, and he makes the corruption of Warren G. Harding
> and incompetence of Dubya look trivial by contrast.

Hahaha. You can't really be so stupid that you actually believe this.
But then again, watching CNN these days, we're treated to one pile of
hysterical garbage after another, so you're right squarely in the
middle of the mainstream.

[John J. Xenakis]

There's another significant paragraph in that Cuban government
statement that I hadn't sufficiently noticed before:

Government of Cuba Wrote:> A matter of singular importance is the salary. We must
> reinvigorate the socialist principle of distribution, to pay to
> each according to the quantity and quality of work
> provided.

That's a total lie. The Socialist Principle Of Distribution is "From
each according to abilities, to each according to needs." Quantity
and quality of work are irrelevant. Nobody is going to claim that
Socialist leaders are ever honest, even about Socialism.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-Jan-18 World View -- Rohingya ARSA attack on Burma (Myanmar) police complicates fantasy repatriation plans

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Rohingya ARSA attack on Burma (Myanmar) police complicates fantasy repatriation plans
  
• Rohingya refugee crisis in Bangladesh continues to grow
  

****
**** Rohingya ARSA attack on Burma (Myanmar) police complicates fantasy repatriation plans
****


Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh (Rohingya Vision TV)

The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) has taken credit for a
terrorist attack on Burmese security forces on Friday in northern
Rakhine State in Myanmar. A military vehicle was attacked with an IED
(improvised explosive device), injuring five soldiers.

On Sunday, a statement tweeted by ARSA took credit for the attack:

<QUOTE>"ARSA has ... no other option but to combat ‘Burmese
state-sponsored terrorism’ against the Rohingya population for the
purpose of defending, salvaging and protecting the Rohingya
community.

Rohingya people must be consulted in all decision-making that
affects their humanitarian needs and political
future."<END QUOTE>

Since 2011, Burma's security forces have been committing mass
atrocities on mostly Muslim ethnic Rohingyas living in Rakhine State,
what the United Nations says is "a textbook example of ethnic
cleansing," and which some Western governments are calling genocide.
The atrocities include gang rape, violent torture, execution-style
killings and the razing of entire villages, in a scorched earth
campaign. Many were forced to flee into neighboring Bangladesh.
Today, there are about 650,000 Rohingyas living in refugee camps in
Bangladesh.

Western governments have been demanding that Burma stop the ethnic
cleansing and genocide, and agree to a plan to repatriate the 650,000
Rohingya refugees living in Bangladesh. However, this entire
repatriation plan was always a fantasy, for several reasons:

• Burma will give lip service to a repatriation plan, but will
  never agree to one.
  
  
• The homes and villages where the Rohingyas used to live in Burma
  have been burned to the ground by Burma's army in conjunction with its
  ethnic cleansing campaign.
  
  
• So they would have to return to refugee camps in Burma, where they
  would be no better off than they are now.
  
  
• Rohingyas fled to Bangladesh to escape the Burmese army's
  atrocities, rapes, torture and other violence, and they expect the
  same if they return to Burma.

So the repatriation plan is a fantasy that was and is never going to
happen, but now Myanmar's government can use the ARSA attacks as one
more reason to refuse to agree to the plan. AFP and Guardian (London)


****
**** Rohingya refugee crisis in Bangladesh continues to grow
****

Since 2011, there have been constant genocidal attacks on Muslims in
Burma, especially Rohingya Muslims by Burmese Buddhists. They have
been led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu and his "969 movement," where
969 is a historic Buddhist sign, referring to the nine qualities of
Buddha, the six qualities of Buddha's teaching, and nine qualities of
the Buddhist community. "969" is supposedly a sign of peace and
happiness, but Wirathu and the Burmese have turned "969" into a sign
of genocide and ethnic cleansing.

As we reported last month,
a UN
investigator on the Rohingya crisis was scheduled to travel to Burma
right about now, but Burmese officials announced they were blocking
any further UN investigations. Yanghee Lee, the lead UN investigator,
responded to the ban by saying, "there must be something terribly
awful happening in Rakhine."

ARSA was formed in the last year in reaction to the years of ethnic
cleansing by Buddhists. The situation in Burma became a lot more
alarming after ARSA attacked some Burma border posts on August 24.
Burma's army responded with a massive increase in genocide and ethnic
cleansing of Rohingyas, forcing hundreds of thousands more to flee
into Bangladesh. An analogy in the US would be that after Black Lives
Matter killed a policeman, if the US army started entering black
neighborhoods and killing, torturing and raping all the black civilian
residents, including women and children, forcing them to flee into
Mexico.

The refugee crisis in Bangladesh continues to grow. The Burmese army
is still committing ethnic cleansing, and there are still Rohingyas
fleeing into Bangladesh to escape the violence. According to an
analysis by Save the Children, more than 48,000 Rohingya babies will
be born in refugee camps this year, where disease and starvation are
prevalent.

The refugee camps may become completely unlivable in May, when the
rainy season begins in May. When the monsoon rains arrive, there is
a strong likelihood of landslides, causing shelters, latrines and
people to come crashing down on top of one another.

An analysis by Indian journalist Manash Ghosh claims that the entire
Rohingya crisis is the result of well-planned strategy by four nations
-- Myanmar, China, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Each of these countries
has a different reason to be part of this planned strategy:

• Myanmar, of course, just wants to get rid of all the
  Rohingyas.
  
  
• China is investing heavily in Burma's Sittwe port in Rakhine
  state, to build oil and gas pipelines, and develop Rakhine’s huge and
  rich untapped natural resources, natural gas, oil, timber, tin and
  precious gems and stones. In addition, the Chinese hate the Rohingyas
  as much as Burma's Buddhists do, and would like to see them
  exterminated.
  
  
• The Saudis, according to Ghosh, have a religious objective, "to
  bring the peripheral Muslim groups, like the Rohingyas, under its
  Wahhabi sway."
  
  
• Pakistan is having an election this year, and the government wants
  to create a population of radicalized Rohingyas in order to create an
  anti-Awami League backlash to win the election.

I always have to chuckle at these bizarre conspiracy theories, because
they're always wrong, and because they always overlook the obvious
fact that politicians are far too stupid to pull off anything so
complex. Still, it's an interesting analysis because it describes
some motives that are not otherwise obvious.

Burma's ethnic cleansing and genocide of Rohingyas did not come about
from any "well-planned strategy" by a bunch of politicians. It came
from the people of Burma, and the fact that Burma is entering a
generational Crisis era.

It's the masses of Buddhist Burman people who are bringing about the
genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas, as I described in
detail last year in "9-Sep-17 World View -- Burma's (Myanmar's) ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas witnessed by BBC reporter"
, as acts of revenge for what
happened in World War II. At that time, the Buddhists were on the
side of the Imperial Japanese, fighting the British colonists and the
Rohingyas. There were massive atrocities committed on all sides, and
those atrocities by the Buddhist Burmans, by the Muslim Rohingyas, and
by the Christian British, are now being paid back. As that article
describes, the murderous Buddhist hatred for the Rohingyas is deep and
entrenched, and cannot be caused or prevented by any politicians.

Once the war ended, the Buddhist and Rohingya survivors of World War
II did everything possible to make sure that no such atrocities would
be committed again. There were compromises -- the Rohingyas could
settle and live peacefully in Rakhine State but they wouldn't be given
citizenship -- and it was hoped that would be enough to keep the
peace. And it did, as long as the WW II survivors were still alive.
But now they're gone, and the generations born after WW II are ready
to commit the same atrocities all over again. The Buddhists have been
committing atrocities against the Rohingyas at least since 2011. Now
ARSA is beginning to take hold, and we can expect to see more Rohingya
atrocities targeting the Buddhists. Before it's over, all the horrors
of World War II will repeated in one form or another. History doesn't
repeat itself, but it rhymes. Daily Star (Bangladesh) and Daily Star and The Pioneer (India)

Related Articles

• Burma's (Myanmar's) ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas witnessed by BBC reporter (09-Sep-2017)
  
  
• India and China support Burma (Myanmar) on Rohingya ethnic cleansing for business reasons (24-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Burma (Myanmar) blocks UN Rohingya investigator, as genocide charges are raised (21-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Burma's (Myanmar's) leaders may be inspired by Pol Pot's Cambodian 'Killing Fields' genocide (29-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Devastating UN report on Burma shows scale of ghastly atrocities by Buddhists targeting Muslim Rohingyas (04-Feb-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Rohingyas,
Ashin Wirathu, 969 movement, Yanghee Lee,
Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, ARSA, Sittwe Port,
India, Manash Ghosh, China, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

(01-07-2018, 12:47 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: There's another significant paragraph in that Cuban government
statement that I hadn't sufficiently noticed before:

Government of Cuba Wrote:>   A matter of singular importance is the salary. We must
>   reinvigorate the socialist principle of distribution, to pay to
>   each according to the quantity and quality of work
>   provided.

That's a total lie.  The Socialist Principle Of Distribution is "From
each according to abilities, to each according to needs."  Quantity
and quality of work are irrelevant.  Nobody is going to claim that
Socialist leaders are ever honest, even about Socialism.

Even a slave-master can achieve "from each according to his abilities" (granted that the master must make sure that the slave not learn enough to think slavery wrong or figure out how to escape....) and fulfill the most basic needs. Food, minimal shelter, and protection from the elements. To get enough work from the slave, use the lash 'generously'. Plantation, Gulag, or KZ-lager, the same principle applies.

The real trick is to get people to enhance their abilities so that they can be something other than raw labor (as is the norm for the slave), and that implies giving people more than their animal needs. Such is a reward for career specialization, deference to the boss and customers, integrity, enhanced effort, innovation, investment, and of course the development of personal skills.

In Marx' day many people were not getting their survival needs... as after they got sick or injured. "To each according to their needs" is a minimum of decency.

[pbrower2a]

(01-07-2018, 11:23 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I can't figure out what you're talking about with the 1890s or the
1920s or the 1930s.  I can't figure out which decade you're saying is
best, and have no clue what you're reasoning is, other than some
remark made by your great-great-aunt, or something like that.  I think
you're trying to take some remark by your uncle's grandmother's third
cousin once removed and use it to prove that socialism is better than
capitalism.

The 1890s and 1920s are possible as expressions of the 'Bad Old Days'. Of course things were great for the elites in the 1890s and 1920s... but as history (and in at least one time, "Madame Guillotine") has shown all too often that the elites are not the only ones who matter.

Quote:No one claims that Capitalism is always 100% successful.  Obviously it
isn't.  I think it could be argued that Capitalism is at least 50%
successful all the time.  But that's better than Socialism, which is
0% successful, and is 100% certain always to fail because of the
reasons I gave in my last message.

50% is successful -- it depends upon what is doing. 50% success in hitting a baseball is far beyond the norm unless one is Giancarlo Stanton facing Little League pitching. Getting out 50% of opposing hitters  means that one typically is grossly inadequate for a pitcher. 

A 50% success in business? The turnover for new restaurants is beyond 50%. in the first year. Professional practices? They aren't particularly capitalist in the sense of turning out inexpensive results.

If capitalism is getting 50% unemployment, then the capitalist order is doing very badly. (Things never got quite that bad in the 1930s).

Quote:I've spent much of my life listening to leftists claim that Cuba was a
Socialist paradise.  I don't see how anyone can say that life in Cuba
was ever better than life in any of the American decades, whether the
1890s, 1920s, 1930s, or other.  People in Cuba were starved, jailed,
tortured and economically deprived.  That's what always happens in
Socialism unless the country abandons Socialism, as Sweden did.

Not this 'leftist'. And where are all those Swedish refugees from socialism? Heck, the USA has lower taxes, which should be quite an incentive for degreed professionals to come here.... but they don;t come from western Europe. Maybe because America is the sort of country in which your kid can easily fail if his parents lack the funds for advanced education.

Quote:It's also worth pointing out that Capitalism is the economic system of
Freedom, while Socialism is the economic system of Dictatorship,
Control, and Oppression.  That's perhaps another reason why Socialism
has a 100% failure rate.

Capitalism taken its most preposterous conclusion, where business is 'free' to do whatever it wishes to helpless workers and customers, is fascism, which itself implies control, tyranny, and oppression. Note well that the capitalist classes have often sought to push demagogues like Mussolini, Hitler, Trujillo, Duvalier,  Fujimori, and Montt to rile up resentments only to sell out the deluded masses. Thus also Trump, although the results could be different. Maybe our civic institutions are stronger.

When Cuba's Socialism collapsed in 2010, I wrote a lengthy article
about it:[/quote]

(snip -- length does not prove relevance)

Quote:Nothing could better describe what Socialism does: "burden companies
and productive organizations with services and inflated budgets that
weigh down the economy, are counterproductive, create bad habits and
distort the behavior of workers."  It could have been written by
Donald Trump if he didn't have dementia, and wasn't a child, and
wasn't mentally unstable, and if he knew how to read and write.

What Marx wrote, Lenin codified, and Castro implemented is manifestly obsolete, relevant only to a country in the early stages of industrialization with a horrid social system and no cause for any hope for change. Capitalists who operate like Marxist stereotypes are also manifestly obsolete.

Quote:And the other thing is that Cuba had to lay off hundreds of thousands
of bureaucrats.  This is exactly the point that I've been making --
Socialism requires a growing supply of other people's money and
regulators.  Even with all the money Cuba was getting, the number of
bureaucrats with inflated budgets that weigh down the economy.

(01-06-2018, 12:35 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   He is the most despotic leader that America has known since at
>   least George III, and he makes the corruption of Warren G. Harding
>   and incompetence of Dubya look trivial by contrast.

Hahaha.  You can't really be so stupid that you actually believe this.
But then again, watching CNN these days, we're treated to one pile of
hysterical garbage after another, so you're right squarely in the
middle of the mainstream.

Oh, so one watches GOP Pravda (a/k/a FoX News) as a news source or one is grossly wrong? Watching American politics today is like watching 'failure porn'.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Jan-18 World View -- Number of asylum seekers, led by Albanians, hits record high in France

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Number of asylum seekers, led by Albanians, hits record high in France
  
• France threatens to restore Schengen visa regime with Albania
  
• The 'Jungle' is closed in Calais France, but the migrants aren't gone
  

****
**** Number of asylum seekers, led by Albanians, hits record high in France
****


Migrants set up temporary shelter tents near the Canal Saint-Martin, Jaures and Stalingrad metro stations in northern Paris (Yeni Safak)

France registered over 100,000 migrant asylum requests in 2017, the
highest number in over four decades, up 17% from the previous year,
though officials say they're not overwhelmed and can cope with the
situation. This compares to a 16% rise in 2016.

Ironically, the greatest number of migrants come from within Europe
itself. Albania tops the list of countries of origin with 7,630
requests, up 66% from the previous year. Afghanistan is second with
5,987 requests, followed by Haiti with 4,934, Sudan with 4,486, and
Guinea with 3,780 asylum requests.

Germany receives a greater number of asylum requests, and expects to
receive 200,000 requests in 2018. Reuters and France 24 and YeniSafak (Turkey) and Exit (Albania)


****
**** France threatens to restore Schengen visa regime with Albania
****

Although Albania is a European country, it is not part of the European
Europe, and it is not in the Schengen Zone where people can move from
country to country without a visa. Nonetheless, a number of European
countries, including France, permit entry without a visa by someone
with an Albanian passport, and Albania is in negotiations with to
become a member of the EU.

However, because the volume of asylum seekers coming from Albania is
so large, France is threatening to advocate a return to the Schengen
visa regime for Albania, and to veto any further negotiations over
joining the EU. Germany and the Netherlands have made similar
threats.

Albania has long been the poorest country in Europe, and in 2016 had a
GDP per capita of about $4,100, according to the World Bank. This is
the reason that so many young people in Albania wish to migrate to
other European countries, and in fact figures from the IMF indicate
that 2/3 of young people in Albania intend to leave Albania for
another country, if they can.

The problem for these young people is that although currently they can
travel to other European countries without a visa, they can only
remain for a limited time, and they do not qualify for asylum. Since
the European Union has declared that Albania is a "safe country of
origin," all migrants from Albania are considered to be "economic
migrants," who do not qualify for asylum.

So among the Albanians who made asylum requests in 2016, on 6.5% of
the requests were approved. By comparison, the approval rate was 95%
for Syrians, 85% for Afghans, and 59% for people from Sudan. Exit (Albania) and Balkan Insight and Exit (Albania) and International Monetary Fund (PDF)

Related Articles

• 22 die in Macedonian police gun battles with Albanian militants (11-May-2015)
  
  
• Protesters storm Macedonia's parliament fearing calls for 'Greater Albania' (29-Apr-2017)
  

****
**** The 'Jungle' is closed in Calais France, but the migrants aren't gone
****

The "Jungle" was the migrant camp in Calais, France, where
migrants would come in the hope of reaching Britain. France
closed the Jungle camp in October 2016, and have done everything
possible to prevent the creation of a new migrant camp.

Nonetheless, there are still about 500 migrants and asylum seekers
living on the streets and in wooded areas in and around Calais,
according to Human Rights Watch, and about 100 are unaccompanied
children. Most of them are from Eritrea, Ethiopia and Afghanistan.

According to HRW, French riot police have been confiscating or
destroying asylum seekers’ and other migrants’ personal belongings,
such as sleeping bags, blankets, clothing, and sometimes phones,
medication, and documents.

According to HRW: "The ongoing police violence and destruction and
confiscation of people’s belongings is inhumane and unconscionable.
The French authorities should immediately put an end to these abuses
and ensure that migrants are treated with the dignity to which every
human being is entitled." Human Rights Watch

Related Articles

• Afghan and Eritrean migrants clash at site of 'Jungle' in Calais France (24-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Court orders France to provide water and sanitation to Calais migrants (02-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Migrant camp in northern France housing 1,600 people burnt to the ground (12-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Thousands of refugees hide from French police as Calais 'Jungle' refugee camp is demolished (28-Oct-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Albania, Afghanistan, Germany,
The Jungle, Eritrea, Ethiopia

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Jan-18 World View -- Venezuela threatens to close borders with Colombia and Dutch territories

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Venezuela's Socialism drives hundreds of thousands into Colombia
  
• Venezuela threatens to end trade with Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire
  

****
**** Venezuela's Socialism drives hundreds of thousands into Colombia
****


Larry Centeno, 44, once had his own construction company in Venezuela. Now he makes a living selling coffee on the streets of Colombia’s capital. (Miami Herald)

Venezuela's Socialism continues to destroy the economy. More and
more, people are losing weight because of food shortages, and children
are dying in hospitals because basic medicines aren't available.

The bolivar currency, in which the "sainted" former president Hugo
Chávez took such pride and pleasure, is today worth little more than
toilet paper, with the country's inflation rate around 600%, expected
to rise to 2,300% in 2018, according to the International Monetary
Fund (IMF).

Venezuela has more oil than any other nation in the world, but because
of successful implementation of pure Socialism by Chávez and by the
current dictator, Nicolás Maduro, the oil company PDVSA has been
nationalized and turned over to the dictator's Socialist cronies, who
are so corrupt and incompetent they couldn't operate a bicycle, let
alone an oil company.

The result is that oil production keeps falling. It's absolutely
incredible how much destruction Socialism is doing to Venezuela's
economy. In December, Venezuela produced 1.7 million barrels of oil
per day, down 27% since 2014, and the lowest level of production in 28
years. Even though global oil prices have been rising in the last few
weeks, it's done little good for Venezuela because oil production
keeps collapsing.

Since oil is pretty much Venezuela's only export that it can use to
earn foreign currency (dollars), Venezuela can no longer import food
or medicines, which is why people are starving to death and babies are
dying in hospitals.

Maduro is hoping that Russia or China will bail him out, the way that
they used to bail out Cuba's Socialism. However, those countries
really don't care about Venezuela and so it will be bailed out only to
the extent that it annoys the United States.

With the bolivar currency more worthless than toilet paper, and with
food and medicines almost impossible to buy, hundreds of thousands of
people from Venezuela have been crossing the border into Colombia,
some just to get food to take back home, some to earn money to take
back home to family.

There's an ironic twist. When it was available, food was heavily
subsidized in Venezuela. So people living near the border would buy
subsidized food in Venezuela and sell it in Colombia at much higher
prices.

This is no longer possible. Instead, citizens now take anything they
can from Venezuela and take it across the border to sell it and earn
Colombian pesos, and then use those pesos to purchase food, medicines,
and other basic products needed to survive. They can then sell those
products on the black market in Venezuela at a much higher price.
Rice, for instance, can be bought in Colombia for the equivalent of
about 1,300 bolivars and sold in Venezuela for around 1,800 bolivars.

With hundreds of thousands of refugees possibly turning into millions,
Colombia's own economy may become destabilized. According to Jozef
Merkx, head of the U.N. High Commission on Refugees in Colombia, the
Colombian government will have the primary responsibility of providing
documentation, health services, education, and in some cases shelter
to the migrant influx. This is a problem facing many countries around
the world where huge numbers of migrants and refugees are fleeing
violence and starvation. Vice News and Reuters and CNN and Reuters (8-June-2016)

****
**** Venezuela threatens to end trade with Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire
****

Venezuela is threatening to end all trade with three Caribbean islands
governed by the Netherlands -- Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire. And the
reason is the same as for Colombia.

Venezuelans are smuggling goods into those three islands, just as they
are into Colombia.

Venezuela's Socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro is seeking to blame
anyone but himself for the disaster he's caused. Often he blames a
criminal conspiracy by the United States.

But now he's blaming "the mafias" for his disaster. In December he
said,

<QUOTE>"In Aruba and Curaçao, the mafias are tearing us
apart, and I have even thought about closing all means of
communication, and all commercial interaction, of all kinds: Both
air and sea with Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire at any time.

I’ve thought about it seriously, about the mafias that take
everything — the oil, rubber, shampoo, meals, everything — and for
Cúcuta ... And Maicao ... Oh, we have a surprise for
you."<END QUOTE>

On Friday of last week, Maduro began to implement his "surprise."

He suspended all air and sea traffic with Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao.
The suspension was supposed to last only 72 hours, but on Monday he
not only extended the suspension indefinitely, but also prohibited all
trade between the islands and Venezuela.

Venezuela's vice president Tareck El Aissami announced the extension
by echoing Maduro's words and saying that they will combat "the mafias
that steal our assets and smuggle with impunity strategic materials,
which severely affect the services and quality of life."

This could be financially disastrous for the three islands, because
they have a big economic dependency on Venezuela. Fresh fruit and
vegetables arrive at the islands in small boats from Venezuela.

Most important, Venezuela's oil company PDVSA leases refineries in
Curaçao and Aruba to process crude into gasoline, naphtha, diesel, jet
fuel, asphalt, base oils and lubricants, and to blend its diluted
extra-heavy crude with light crude for export, much of it sent to
PDVSA's US-based subsidiary, CITGO. On Bonaire, PDVSA owns a large
oil terminal.

So far, Maduro's blockade of the three Caribbean islands has not
affected their relationship with PDVSA. However, in view of the
concern that this will be Maduro's next step, the government of the
Netherlands has been asked contact Venezuela's government and "to seek
clarity from Venezuela" with regard to commercial relations. PanamPost and Telesur and Hellenic Shipping News and Jamaica Observer and Miami Herald

Related articles:

• Socialist Venezuela may or may not have declared bankruptcy on Thursday (04-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Russia considers taking on a huge financial burden - Venezuela (05-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Venezuela's economic crisis is hitting Cuba hard (06-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Venezuela's mestizo president Hugo Chávez dies of cancer (06-Mar-2013)
  
  
• Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise (29-May-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, Nicolás Maduro,
Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., PDVSA, Tareck El Aissami,
Netherlands, Aruba, Curaçao, Bonaire, Jozef Merkx

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Jan-18 World View -- Tit-for-tat violence between Nigeria's Muslim herders and Christian farmers becomes more serious

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tit-for-tat violence between Nigeria's Muslim herders and Christian farmers becomes more serious
  
• Nigeria searches for solutions to problem of herders vs farmers
  

****
**** Tit-for-tat violence between Nigeria's Muslim herders and Christian farmers becomes more serious
****


Cartoon: Farmer vs Herdsman in Nigeria (AllAfrica)

In what is being called a "harvest of deaths in the new year," more
than 80 people in Benue State province of Nigeria have been killed in
just the first ten days of this year in tit-for-tat clashes between
farmers and herders. There have been similar clashes in other
provinces. In several years of these clashes, there are now more than
80,000 displaced people, forced into refugee camps.

Herders are mostly Muslims from the Fulani tribe. Farmers are mostly
Christians from a number of tribes, including the Tiv, Mambila and
Bachama tribes.

In a recent incident over the weekend, more than a dozen people were
killed. Unidentified gunmen from the Bachama tribe attacked Fulani
settlements on Friday, in revenge for previous attacks by Fulanis. On
Saturday, Fulanis conducted a reprisal attack. Four Fulanis and eight
Bachamas were killed. Residents of the affected village put the death
toll at 40, though this could not be verified.

There has been an ongoing stream of these tit-for-tat attacks, which
have been getting increasingly violent, leading to fears of a larger
war.

Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari is being blamed for the violence,
but he says that the problem is caused by population growth. A
statement from the president's office notes that the population of
Nigeria was 63 million in 1960 when it achieved independence, and
adds:

<QUOTE>"Today, the population is estimated at close to 200
million, while the land size has not changed and will not
change. Urban sprawl and development have simply reduced land area
both for peasant farming and cattle grazing.

It is therefore both unfair and unkind for anyone to keep
insinuating that the president is condoning the spate of killings
in Benue and other neighboring states.

President Buhari has publicly condemned the violence at every
turn. He is prepared to permit every possible step that can lead
to the stoppage of the killings."<END QUOTE>

However, Buhari himself is a Hausa-speaking Fulani from northern
Nigeria. Although he's repeatedly condemned the deadly clashes as
"wicked and callous," many people in other tribes and political
parties suspect him of supporting the attacks for political gain.

Nonetheless, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Buhari
is correct. Conflicts between herders and farmers are common in many
countries, and I've described them in Central African Republic,
Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America in the
1800s. As population grows, the farmers accuse the herders of letting
the cattle eat their crops, while the herders accuse the farmers of
planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers put up
fences, then the herders knock them down. This Day Live (Nigeria) and AFP

****
**** Nigeria searches for solutions to problem of herders vs farmers
****

In order to stop the violence, the governor of Benue State has passed
an "Anti-Grazing Law" that came into effect in November, as I reported
at the time in the growing violence between herders and farmers in Nigeria.
The law prohibits open
grazing of cattle, and requires herders to maintain their herds of
cattle on ranches. As I wrote at the time, the new law is somewhat
laughable, as there's no way that it will stop Fulani herder attacks
on farmers. And it certainly hasn't stopped the violence.

The Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria (MACBAN),
which is the lobbying group representing Fulani herders, are blaming
the Anti-Grazing Law for increasing violence, since the law has
encouraged the growth of vigilante farmer groups attacking herders and
they cattle.

Another proposed solution is being opposed by MACBAN: The
implementation of "cattle colonies" across the country. The herders
will be given large blocks of land, having adequate water and pasture
for grazing of cattle. A standard cattle colony will also have
shopping and supply centers for dairy products, with abattoirs and
meat warehouses for processing finished products.

Herders would be restricted to the "cattle colonies," so it's not
surprising that MACBAN opposed them. Furthermore, no matter wonderful
promises the politicians make about the colonies, everyone can be sure
that herders will be given whatever block of land nobody wants, and
herders would become completely marginalized.

The herder association are expressing an entirely different solution
-- adopt the European system of providing subsidies of a few euros a
day for each dairy cow that a farmer or rancher owns and maintains.

These subsidies are part of the European Union's controversial
&euro;58 billion per year Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Since the
UK pays a significant amount of that money, CAP may not survive Brexit
intact. Leadership (Nigeria) and The Nation (Nigeria) and Politico (EU)

Related Articles

• Violence in Nigeria grows over clashes between herders and farmers (03-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Kenya's herders attack well-known conservationist, stoking tribal tensions (24-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Ban Ki Moon blames Darfur genocide on global warming (19-Jun-2007)
  
  
• Press reports say that Tony Blair caving on EU budget (30-Nov-2005)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Benue State, Muhammadu Buhari,
Hausa, Faluni tribe, Tiv tribe, Mambila tribe, Bachama tribe,
Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria, MACBAN,
Anti-Grazing law, cattle colonies

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Jan-18 World View -- Tunisia anti-austerity activists call for huge protests on Friday

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tunisia anti-austerity activists call for huge protests on Friday
  
• Tunisia protests evoke memories of the 2011 'Arab Spring'
  

****
**** Tunisia anti-austerity activists call for huge protests on Friday
****


A female protester cowers in front of the police in Tunis on Tuesday (AFP)

Tunisia police have arrested over 600 people since Sunday, when
widespread peaceful anti-austerity protests began to turn violent.
Protesters in 20 cities, including the capital city Tunis, have
attacked police stations and government buildings and set tires on
fire in the streets. Over 50 police officers were wounded.

Anti-austerity activists are calling for large new protesters
across the country today, after Friday prayers.
The protests were triggered by new austerity laws that came
into effect at the beginning of this year.

Tunisia has been pursuing a strategy of economy reform geared towards
cutting government expenditure and devaluing its currency. The
protests were triggered by the 2018 Finance Act that came into effect
on January first, with the goal of reducing the budget deficit. It
raised value-added tax (VAT) on cars, alcohol, phone calls, the
internet, hotel accommodation and other items,

The austerity measures were put into place based on requirements by
the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In 2016, the IMF gave a
four-year $2.8 billion loan to Tunisia, but payments are tied to the
Tunisian government carrying out economic and social reforms.

After a review of Tunisia's economy in October of last year, the IMF
statement said:

<QUOTE>"IMF staff and the economic team of the new government
agreed that front and center of all reform efforts is the need to
create jobs and contain debt. Better managing the public-sector
wage bill, which is among the highest in the world and absorbs
half of total expenditure, will be indispensable. ...

Specifically, the budget bill would focus on reducing the deficit
through comprehensive tax reform and rationalizing inefficient
expenditure. It would also dedicate more resources in support of
SMEs. Executed within an adequate framework, investments through
public-private partnerships (PPP) could improve the quality of
infrastructure and help free up resources for other high priority
spending on health and education.

Ensuring the sustainability of the social security system,
improving governance and oversight of loss-making public
enterprises, and modernizing the civil service remain critical
structural reforms to reduce fiscal risks and make the overall
economy more competitive."<END QUOTE>

So prices have been rising significantly since January 1, but salaries
have been frozen.

Tunisia's unemployment rate is high, with the result that more than
60% of working men and 83% of working women are part of the country's
growing informal economy. AFP and Express (London) and International Monetary Fund (6-Oct-2017) and Middle East Eye

****
**** Tunisia protests evoke memories of the 2011 'Arab Spring'
****

The so-called Arab Spring was triggered a Tunisian food vendor,
resulting in protests about food prices that seem remarkably similar
to those occurring today.

By January 2011, there were massive protests and gun battles in
Tunisia, forcing the president to flee the country. The protests
spread to Egypt, resulting in the resignation of long-time dictator
Hosni Mubarak.

The protests also spread next door to Libya. By February, the
bloodbath in Libya spread from Benghazi and Tobruk in the east to
Tripoli in the west. Dictator Muammar Gaddafi threatened to shoot to
kill protesters, and said he'll crush any enemy. This caused a
massive refugee crisis in Libya, with hundreds of thousands of
refugees pouring into neighboring countries. It's this huge
destabilizing refugee crisis in Libya, along with the threat of a
flood of refugees crossing the Mediterranean to Europe, that led the
Arab League to demand that the West implement a no-fly zone, and
approval by the UN Security Council. The no-fly zone eventually led
to the war in Libya, and the death of Muammar Gaddafi.

There was also a refugee crisis in Tunisia, sending thousands of
Tunisians across the Mediterranean Sea to Italy.

In the end, Tunisia's president Zine el Abedine Ben Ali stepped down
gracefully, and left behind a secular government. Tunisia is
considered by many to be the only country that weathered the Arab
Spring in a successful manner, emerging as a secular democracy.

However, the last six years have not been kind to Tunisia.
The worst occurred in 2015, when there was a major terrorist
attack at a museum in Tunis in March.

But this was followed by an even more horrific attack in June, when a
gunman disguised as a tourist opened fire at a Tunisian hotel in the
beach resort Sousse, killing 37 people. He arrived at the beach in a
boat, and hid his weapons in an umbrella. He removed the weapon, a
Kalashnikov assault rifle, from the umbrella and strolled through the
hotel grounds, opening fire at the pool and beach, reloading his
weapon several times and tossing an explosive.

This has been devastating to Tunisia's tourist industry, which
accounts for 15% of its GDP and most of its foreign currency revenues.

Now the new round of violent street protests are raising fears that
the country is becoming unstable. Tunisia escaped the worst of what
happened to other Arab countries after the Arab Spring, but it may
turn out that the worst was simply postponed. Euro News and Foreign Policy (3-Jan-2011) and CNN

Related Articles

• Beneath the surface, Tunisia is a terrorist breeding ground (19-Mar-2015)
  
  
• Terrorist gunman creates bloodbath in Tunisia, killing 37 (27-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Concerns grow about Tunisia's stability as economic protests escalate (17-Sep-2016)
  
  
• A look back at Libya in 2011 as the West debates another military intervention (05-Mar-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tunisia, Tunis, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Arab Spring, Zine el Abedine Ben Ali, Sousse,
Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Egypt, Italy

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Jan-18 World View -- US requests Pakistan's permission to ship Afghan supplies through Gwadar seaport

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US-Pakistan relations continue as before, despite US aid cutoff
  
• US requests Pakistan's permission to ship Afghan supplies through Gwadar seaport
  

****
**** US-Pakistan relations continue as before, despite US aid cutoff
****


China-built Gwadar port in Pakistan

It was less than two weeks ago when president Donald Trump made a
scathing criticism of Pakistan's "lies and deceit" related to the
Afghanistan war, and said that $2 billion in security aid to Pakistan
would be suspended. It was widely feared that this announcement would
cause US-Pakistan relations to spiral into open hostility and a
complete break. ( "3-Jan-18 World View -- US-Pakistan relations hit major crossroad, as US cuts aid"
)

Well, apparently nothing has really changed. Even the inevitable
angry words haven't been particularly harsh. Yes, some feelings were
crushed, and Pakistan's Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa said that
"the entire Pakistani nation felt betrayed." However, nothing worse
than that has happened. In fact, since Trump's announcement, there
have been two phone calls between Bajwa and US CENTCOM military
commander General Joseph Votel.

This was summarized in a tweet from Pakistan's military:

<QUOTE>"Comd USCENTCOM & a US Senator telephoned COAS to
discuss security coop post POTUS tweet. “Entire Pakistani nation
felt betrayed on trivialising our decade old cooperation. We won’t
ask for restoration of financial assistance but honourable
recognition of our contributions”, COAS. 'pic.twitter.com/oHEQGGvyIf'"<END QUOTE>

According to an unnamed senior Pakistani foreign ministry official:

<QUOTE>"There is no freeze [in relations]. We are speaking
to each other, at all levels. We are not sharing the details of
that at this time, but the effort to find some common ground or
traction on both sides is there."<END QUOTE>

This sentiment was confirmed by a US State Department official, also
unnamed.

Richard Snelsire, the spokesperson for the US embassy in Islamabad,
said: "We have received no notification regarding a suspension in
defense and intelligence cooperation."

In fact, a few harsh words from Trump are not the worst thing that has
happened to US-Pakistan relations. In 2011, the US conducted a
military operation on Pakistani soil to capture Osama bin Laden, and
that REALLY infuriated the Pakistanis. Later, a US air strike inside
Pakistan killed more than a dozen army soldiers and officers. In
reaction, Pakistan closed down the supply lines to the US forces in
Afghanistan, and only reopened them after the US apologized.

So US-Pakistan relations weathered those crises, and have apparently
weathered the current crisis, and things are going on as before.
Reuters and Al Jazeera and Dawn (Pakistan)

Related Articles

• US-Pakistan relations hit major crossroad, as US cuts aid (03-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
  

****
**** US requests Pakistan's permission to ship Afghan supplies through Gwadar seaport
****

Because Afghanistan is a land-locked country, the US-led NATO
coalition in Afghanistan receives supplies that arrive in Pakistan's
port in Karachi. The supplies then take a full week to travel
overland by truck to reach Afghanistan. When Pakistan shut down this
supply route in 2011, supplies had to take a very long route through
Central Asia.

So now the NATO coalition forces are asking Pakistan to permit
supplies to arrive in Pakistan's China-build Gwadar port. From there
they would be loaded onto trucks and reach Afghanistan within 24
hours, rather than a week.

And this brings to mind one of the great issues that the pundits
discussed after Trump announced the cutoff of aid to Pakistan: That
cutting ties with Pakistan would push Pakistan further into the arms
of China.

It's true China and Pakistan describe their relationship as as
"all-weather friends, deeper than the deepest ocean, sweeter than
honey and dearer than eyesight" and all that. However, there's a
whole nother side to that issue that hasn't been mentioned much:
Pakistan doesn't want to be China's bitch.

Particularly in the last one or two years, China has been harshly
rolling over Pakistan, with issues related to the $60-billion
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China is demanding full
control of infrastructure such as dams and power plants. China will
control thousands of acres of Pakistani land to gain access for
Pakistan's agricultural to meet China's food needs. Thousands or tens
of thousands of Chinese workers are already flooding into Pakistani
cities and towns, creating "Chinatowns" across the country. Mandarin
Chinese is already a required school subject in Sindh province. The
Pakistani culture will be transformed in many places to a Chinese
culture. China will install an elaborate electronic surveillance
system that in Pakistani cities, for use with policing, similar to the
harsh electronic surveillance systems being installed in China itself.

The worst may be that China is setting a debt trap for Pakistan,
similar to what it's already done in other countries, such as
Tajikistan and Sri Lanka. Pakistan will be $90 billion in debt to
China, and will have to repay China over 30 years. If Pakistan fails
to repay it, then China will take over territory and other Pakistani
assets. So Pakistan's relation with China may be "dearer than
eyesight," but that doesn't mean that Pakistan wants to be a
full-fledged colony of China, just as it once was, along with India, a
full-fledged colony of Britain.

There's also an emerging controversy over the port at Gwadar. China
insists that the purpose of CPEC is purely commercial: to provide a
way for goods to travel from China's Xinjiang province to the Indian
Ocean, and Gwadar port is the endpoint. But in the last month,
speculation has been growing that China plans to turn Gwadar into a
Chinese military naval base. The speculation has emerged over the
question of how China is going to provide security in the Gwadar port.

Both China and Pakistan are denying the speculation. An unnamed
Pakistani official is quoted as saying, "Pakistan Navy is
well-equipped to handle the security of Chinese shipments, and we will
manage the security of the shipments effectively."

Unfortunately, such assurances by China are completely laughable,
since China has pretty much zero credibility about anything. When
China began building illegal artificial islands in the South China
Sea, they insisted that they were purely for commercial use, and would
be popular tourist attractions. That was simply a lie. Today, those
islands are full-fledged military bases, bristling with Chinese
missiles, warplanes, radars, bunkers, and other military equipment.
No tourists are welcome.

So now NATO is asking Pakistan to allow its military supplies for
Afghanistan to transit through Gwadar port, and Pakistan is said to be
considering the question. Presumably, one of the issues that
Pakistani officials are considering is this: Gwadar is supposed to be
a commercial port, so let's make some money from it by allowing NATO
shipments, and then use that money to pay off the humongous debt we
owe to China. Whether China will be happy with that solution remains
to be seen.

Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India,
Russia and Iran. Asia Times and Jamestown and VOA and Daily Pakistan and Value Walk and The Hindu

Related Articles

• Pakistan overwhelmed and China alarmed over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) (12-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Massive China-Pakistan CPEC energy project said to end energy crisis 'soon' (23-Mar-2017)
  
  
• China takes control of strategic Hambantota seaport in Sri Lanka, raising concerns in India (11-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Massive China-Pakistan CPEC energy project said to end energy crisis 'soon' (23-Mar-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Qamar Javed Bajwa,
Joseph Votel, Afghanistan, Richard Snelsire,
Karachi, Gwadar, China, Xinjiang, South China Sea,
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC,
Tajikistan, Sri Lanka

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Jan-18 World View -- Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands more refugees into Turkey and Europe

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Al-Assad's continued chlorine attacks on civilians follow Putin's 'Grozny model'
  
• Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands more refugees into Turkey and Europe
  

****
**** Al-Assad's continued chlorine attacks on civilians follow Putin's 'Grozny model'
****


Aftermath of al-Assad attack on Eastern Ghouta on January 4 (Reuters)

Warplanes belonging to the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
carried out chlorine gas attacks in Eastern Ghouta, a city in the
suburbs of Syria's capital city Damascus. Health workers said that
six people were treated for minor breathing problems.

Canisters of chlorine gas are sometimes called "the poor man's atom
bomb." They don't kill large numbers of people, but they have a
different purpose of forcing large numbers of people out into the
open. This is part of the "Grozny strategy" used by Russia's
president Vladimir Putin, so-named because he used it in Grozny in
Russia's 1990s war with Chechnya. In the Grozny strategy, civilians
are forced out into the open so that they can be targeted like fish in
a barrel, and killed in large numbers.

Frequent chlorine gas attacks in Eastern Ghouta are part of that
strategy. The regular missiles and barrel bomb explosions force
civilians, especially women and children, to hide in basements or deep
in building interiors. Chlorine gas is heavier than air, so the
chlorine gas seeps into underground hiding places, and forces the
women and children out into the streets, where al-Assad's forces can
massacre the women and children in large numbers. Al-Assad considers
these women and children to be cockroaches, and are to be exterminated
like cockroaches.

Al-Assad is following the same policy he used a year ago to totally
destroy East Aleppo, with 275,000 people, in about six months.
Eastern Ghouta has about 400,000 people, so al-Assad has a long way to
go. Al-Assad has also targeted Ghouta with several Sarin gas attacks.

In the meantime, his warplanes are specifically targeting hospitals
and schools, and the army is preventing food and medicines from
entering the region, so that the people can be starved to death. This
is the same technique used by al-Assad last year to destroy East
Aleppo. BBC and Daily Mail (London) and LA Times (13-Feb-2017) and CNN (7-Sep-2016) and Arms Control Association (17-Nov-2017)

****
**** Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands more refugees into Turkey and Europe
****

The regime of Syria's president is pursuing a strategy in Idlib
province that could trigger a refugee "catastrophe," and send hundreds
of thousands of Syrian refugees north across the border into Turkey,
and from there into Europe.

According to Thomas Garofalo of the International Rescue Committee
(IRC):

<QUOTE>"We are extremely concerned for the safety of the 2.6
million people living in Idlib if the frontline continues to
advance. People have told us that they will have no choice but to
uproot themselves once again and head further north. They will be
heading to displacement camps that are already far beyond
capacity, which means their situation will get even worse, in the
dead of a wet, cold winter."<END QUOTE>

Previously, an estimated 1.1 million people have fled to other parts
of Syria.

Already, more than 70,000 people have fled their homes and moved
further into Idlib to escape the latest wave of al-Assad's violence.
Many have sought refuge near the border with Turkey. Activists say
whole villages near the frontline have been abandoned. "There could
be a really parlous humanitarian catastrophe," said one European
diplomat.

As hundreds of thousands of refugees flee north toward the border with
Turkey, Turkey's army is prepared to block them from crossing the
border. These refugees will be trapped, and they'll be sitting ducks
as targets of Syrian and Russian airstrikes, including barrel bombs,
chlorine, and Sarin. Since Turkey is preventing them from escaping,
Turkey will become active partner in the mass slaughter, and they'll
be accused of allowing it to happen. Rather than being accused of
enabling al-Assad's mass slaughter, Turkey may well be forced to
permit them to cross the border to flee al-Assad's violence

Another possible scenario is that rather than be blamed for helping
the mass slaughter, Turkey may decide to fight the Syrians, and may be
joined by Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE). The
Generational Dynamics prediction is of a major war, pitting Sunnis
versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against
each other, and this is one scenario how it can occur.

No matter which of these scenarios occurs, hundreds of thousands of
refugees will pour out of Idlib into Turkey, and then into Europe.

As I've written many times in the past, Bashar al-Assad is the worst
genocidal monster so far this century. The Syrian war began in 2011
when al-Assad ordered his army and air force to attack peacefully
protesting civilians, including women and children. Things really
worsened in August 2011, when al-Assad launched a massive military
assault on a large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia,
filled with tens of thousands of women and children Palestinians. He
dropped barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous
and chemical weapons onto innocent Sunni women and children, he
targeted bombs on schools and hospitals, and he used Sarin gas to kill
large groups of people.

Both Eastern Ghouta and Idlib Province are supposed to be in
"de-escalation zones," and free from attacks. These de-escalation
zones were negotiated by Russia, Iran and Turkey. As I wrote all
along, they had no chance of working since al-Assad did not agree to
them, and had no intention of honoring them. The de-escalation zones
are a total farce on the part of Russia, a farce compounded in
December when Vladimir Putin declared that the war had ended.
Guardian (London) and Al Araby (UK) and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

• Syria's Bashar al-Assad targets civilians and hospitals in never-ending war of extermination (07-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Syria and Russia repeat Aleppo war crimes in massive destruction of Eastern Ghouta (06-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin hug and declare the end of war in Syria (27-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Syria and Russia see 'the light at the end of the tunnel' after Aleppo victory (18-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Russia uses the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter in Aleppo Syria (02-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Eastern Ghouta, Aleppo,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Chechnya, Grozny strategy,
chlorine gas, Sarin gas, Idlib, Turkey,
Thomas Garofalo, International Rescue Committee, IRC

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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Jan-18 World View -- Cameroon Catholic Church splits over government 'barbarism' and 'growing genocide'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cameroon crisis escalates as English-speakers flee to Nigeria to escape French-speakers' violence
  
• Cameroon Catholic Church splits over government 'barbarism' and 'growing genocide'
  

****
**** Cameroon crisis escalates as English-speakers flee to Nigeria to escape French-speakers' violence
****


Anglophone Cameroon cocoa farmers have been forced to abandon their crops and flee the violence from the Francophone security forces (Reuters)

There are fears that the crisis in Cameroon's Anglophone
(English-speaking) regions is spiraling out of control, leading to a
refugee emergency, and possibly shutting down cocoa production, an
important part of Cameroon's economy.

Tens of thousands of people from the Southern Cameroons, as the
Anglophone provinces of Cameroon are known, have been forced to flee
across the border into Nigeria in the last three months, to escape
increasingly brutal violence by Francophone security forces of the
country's despotic Francophone leader, 84 year old Paul Biya, who has
been in power 37 years.

Even thousands of cocoa farmers have been forced to abandon their
crops and flee to larger towns or to Nigeria. Normally, they produce
more than 100,000 tonnes of beans, nearly half of the country's
output.

The violence started in 2016, but at the start is one almost entirely
one-sided violence, with the Francophone security forces violently
attacking peaceful Anglophone protesters.

In 2016, the peaceful protests began with claims by Anglophone lawyers
that the legal and court systems are biased toward Francophones, with
many laws passed without even being translated into English.
Anglophone teachers joined in, protesting that all courses in the
schools had to be taught in French, and that any use of English was
forbidden. The Francophone police responded by severely beating
several protesters, and shooting two of them dead.

Violence by Francophone security forces grew during 2017, and took a
particularly dangerous turn on September 22, when pro-Anglophone
activist forces began using small bombs to target local security
forces. On October 1, separatists staged a massive march, and
declared the independence of Ambazonia. In the increasingly violent
Francophone government crackdown that followed, hundreds of people
were arrested, and helicopter gunships were used to fire on innocent
civilians and kill them, resulting in the mass flight of refugees into
Nigeria.

Nigeria is being increasingly drawn into the Cameroon crisis, as
Cameroon Francophone security forces have been illegally crossing the
border into Nigeria to pursue and arrest refugees fleeing the
violence.

On January 5, armed Nigerian security forces stormed a hotel in
Nigeria's capital city, Abuja, where Cameroonian activists were
meeting, and arrested 15 men and held them in secret custody for over
a week. It's feared that Nigerian authorities will extradite the
activists to Cameroon, where they'll be held without trial and
tortured. This has caused a debate by legislators and human rights
activists within Nigeria itself, who say that the arrests were in
violation of Nigerian law, and that deporting them would be a
violation of international law.

According to Jeffrey Smith of nonprofit Vanguard Africa:

<QUOTE>"With elections due later this year, and with
President Biya’s increasing unpopularity, this is a potentially
explosive situation that merits much more attention than it has
been receiving, namely from regional leaders who should, in
theory, have an interest in containing the regional
unrest."<END QUOTE>

Presidential elections are scheduled for October. 84-year-old Biya is
expected to run again, and to use corruption and force to rig the
elections to make sure he wins. Quartz and Reuters and Premium Times (Nigeria) and Amnesty International

****
**** Cameroon Catholic Church splits over government 'barbarism' and 'growing genocide'
****

The violence in the Anglophone regions of Cameroons has resulted in a
significant split in Cameroon's Catholic Church, with accusations
being launched between Anglophone bishops and Francophone bishops.

On October 4 of last year, the Anglophone Bishops issued a
declaration, excerpted as follows:

<QUOTE>"We also condemned in very unequivocal terms the
violence perpetuated by some groups of young people on the one
hand and the acts of brutality, torture, inhuman and unjustified
treatment meted out to some of our youths by the Forces of Law and
Order on the other hand. We called on the Government to restrain
such barbaric action of the Forces of Law and Order and to bring
to justice those of them who had been irresponsible, so that peace
may reign. ...

Friday, 22nd September 2017, was a very significant turning point.
... [A] huge population of men, women, youths, old and young, and
even children turned out on the streets of many towns and villages
of the North West and South West Regions to demonstrate peacefully
and express their right to self-determination. This peaceful march
of mostly innocent citizens, carrying peace plants and shouting
“No violence! No violence!” and defying the Forces of Law and
Order, should have sent home to the authorities a message of the
fact that it was not just a handful of people outside the country
calling for this restoration. While some of the Forces of Law and
Order, reading the signs of the times, did not react violently,
others instead of using their guns to protect citizens, shot live
bullets at unarmed civilians, killing some and maiming others. ...

We condemn in the strongest terms possible the barbarism and the
irresponsible use of firearms against unarmed civilians by the
Forces of Law and Order, even if they are provoked. The divine
injunction: “Thou shalt not kill!” remains valid even in such
circumstances. We call on the Head of State of the Republic of
Cameroon, the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces, to stop the
bloodbath and genocide that has skillfully been initiated in the
North West and South West Regions. Mr. Kofi Annan, Former
Secretary General of the United Nations Organization, said that “a
genocide begins with the killing of one man – not for what he had
done – but for who he is”. The statement by the Minister of
Communications, the Spokesperson for the Government, that some
Anglophone Cameroonians are “terrorists” is a subtle call for what
can be described as “ethnic cleansing” or a genocide as all
Anglophone Cameroonians are now considered as ‘terrorists’ and as
such they qualify for elimination, just because they are
Anglophones! We need to stop the imminent genocide! ...

At the moment, the Anglophone Problem can no longer be taken
lightly or ignored. It needs urgent attention, to avoid the
growing genocide. People have lost loved ones to brutal killings
and do not even know where some of their corpses are now. Every
individual who is killed increases the number of aggrieved persons
and families, resentment and anger, which are very difficult to
address."<END QUOTE>

Francophone bishops played down this statement by ignoring the issues,
but making a general condemnation of all violence, such as this by
Francophone Archbishop Samuel Kleda:

<QUOTE>"In the name of our common citizenship, brotherhood
and humanity, the defense of legitimate interests must go hand in
hand with social harmony, which is what is being sought
... Violence, regardless of its source, does not build, it
destroys."<END QUOTE>

However, this infuriated Anglophones, who saw this as trying to evade
the issues by lumping them together with all the other problems in
Cameroon.

Anglophone Father Gerald Jumbam wrote a letter to Kleda, saying:

<QUOTE>"[Cameroonians by virtue of their history] cannot be
loyal subjects to the despicable and tyrannous Yaoundé
government. Archbishop, you speak of Decentralization and you
offer us it as the best gift you think fitting for the resolution
of this crisis? We are determined to decline a gift so laden with
spurious promises and deceitful propensities."<END QUOTE>

IDN and Bareta News (6-Oct-2016) and Crux Now

Related Articles

• Cameroon's English-speaking provinces on the verge of full-scale violence (04-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Deadly violence increases in English-speaking regions of Cameroon (12-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Cameroon police shoot and kill English-speaking protesters on Sunday (02-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Cameroon's army to force English-speaking children to attend school (31-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Cameroon: One person killed in English-speaking vs French-speaking civil unrest (23-Nov-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cameroon, Southern Cameroons, Paul Biya,
Anglophones, Francophones, Nigeria, Jeffrey Smith, Vanguard Africa,
Archbishop Samuel Kleda, Father Gerald Jumbam

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Jan-18 World View -- US in Syria announces a Border Security Force to prevent repeat of Iraq withdrawal blunder

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US in Syria announces a Border Security Force to prevent repeat of Iraq withdrawal blunder
  
• Turkey, Russia and Syria infuriated by the Border Security Force announcement
  

****
**** US in Syria announces a Border Security Force to prevent repeat of Iraq withdrawal blunder
****


US soldiers train Kurdish SDF forces in how to control a drone (Reuters)

The US-led coalition against ISIS in Syria is training a force of
30,000 fighters, mostly drawn from the existing predominantly Kurdish
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in order to form a "Syrian Border
Force" (BSF) to prevent a resurgence of the so-called Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

The purpose of the BSF is to avoid repeating what is seen to be a
blunder made by president Barack Obama in 2011, when American troops
were withdrawn from Iraq with no continuing presence to prevent the
spread of a new insurgency. Many people refer to that as a blunder by
Obama that permitted the spread of the ISIS insurgency in Iraq. The
intention is that the new BSF will prevent a similar blunder in Syria,
now that ISIS is no longer in control of Raqqa.

According to coalition spokesman Colonel Thomas F. Veale:

<QUOTE>"The Coalition is working jointly with the Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF) to establish and train the new Syrian
Border Security Force (BSF). Currently, there are approximately
230 individuals training in the BSF’s inaugural class, with the
goal of a final force size of approximately 30,000.

The base of the new force is essentially a realignment of
approximately 15,000 members of the Syrian Democratic Forces to a
new mission in the Border Security Force as their actions against
ISIS draw to a close."<END QUOTE>

As Veale's statement suggests, the training has already been going on
for some time. In fact, this is a follow-up from a statement made on
December 22 by US Army Gen. Joseph Votel, head of U.S. Central
Command. Votel pointed out that Russia's president Vladimir Putin had
declared early in December that ISIS was defeated in eastern Syria,
but then ISIS took over six villages in the area just days later.

Votel confirmed, for the first time, that there were 2,000 American
troops in Syria, and said that they will be training "border security
forces" in Syria:

<QUOTE>"[The border security forces] will help prevent
resurgence of ISIS and will help bring control. We do it right
where it's needed [in Syria].

You just can't go in and have a fight and drop a bunch of bombs
and then step away from it and think that the problem is solved.
This is a reminder of just how resilient and capable this
organization [ISIS] is, and how we have to really make sure, as we
complete these operations, that we've done it very
thoroughly."<END QUOTE>

The training would include instruction in interrogation, screening,
biometric scanning and other skills to help identify insurgents who
may be trying to cross into Syria from neighboring countries, now that
the emphasis is on stabilization and peacekeeping, not fighting.

There were 230 individuals who were trained in the program announced
in December. The US considers the SDF and the Kurdish fighters to
have been the most effective fighting force against ISIS, better than
Turkish forces and Syrian forces. So 15,000 hardened fighters in the
SDF will initially be realigned to a new mission in the Border
Security Force, and additional fighters will be recruited and trained,
to bring the total BSF force to 30,000.

The BSF will be responsible for patrolling the borders of a region
stretching from the Euphrates River Valley in the east to the Iraq
border in the west, and north to the border with Turkey.

The ethnic composition of the force will vary relative to the areas in
which it serves, with efforts taken to ensure that people serve close
to their homes. This all but guarantees that Kurds, who make up a
majority of the population in northeastern Syria, will be establishing
checkpoints along the roughly 820-kilometer (510-mile) Syria-Turkey
border, while more Arabs will serve in areas along the Euphrates River
Valley and along the border with Iraq. The Defense Post (13-Jan) and AP (22-Dec)

****
**** Turkey, Russia and Syria infuriated by the Border Security Force announcement
****

The area being patrolled by the Border Security Force seems enormous
to many people. Furthermore, while the objective may be to prevent
infiltration of ISIS across Turkey's border, it seems likely that a
major purpose of patrolling the Euphrates River Value will be to
prevent infiltration of Syrian army forces, and a major purpose of
patrolling the Iraq border will be to prevent Iran from completing its
road connecting Baghdad to Damascus.

Turkey has been complaining for almost two years that while the
Kurdish forces in the SDF were fighting ISIS in Raqqa, they could also
be preparing for new terrorist attacks in Turkey itself. The Kurds in
the SDF are affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which
conducted an insurgency within Turkey for three decades, and which has
perpetrated major terror attacks within Turkey during the last three
years.

Turkey claims that the US promised that the Kurdish forces would no
longer be armed, once ISIS was defeated, and that the US is reneging
on that promise. Turkey claims that the new Border Security Force
will be a Kurdish army poised to attack Turkey.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that Turkey
will attack the Kurdish forces, and clear its border of "terrorists."
That remark apparently was not referring to Kurdish forces in the BSF
region, but rather to Kurdish forces in Afrin, and also to Iraq.
However, Erdogan also criticized the US support of the SDF:

<QUOTE>"Making a terrorist wear a uniform, and flying your
country's flag over the buildings they use, does not change any
facts. Thousands of weapons sent to the region are already on the
black market and some of them are being used against
us."<END QUOTE>

On Monday, Erdogan added:

<QUOTE>"The United States has admitted that it has created a
terrorist force along our country's border. Our duty is to drown
this army of terror before it is born."<END QUOTE>

Erdogan is threatening an imminent military attack on Kurds in Afrin,
Manbij, and other targets in northern Syria. However, he's made such
threats before without carrying through.

Russian officials are angered by the BSF announcement because they see
that it has no other purpose than to partition Syria permanently:

<QUOTE>"In fact, that means separation of a huge territory
along the border with Turkey and Iraq. The actions we currently
see indicate that the United States does not want to keep the
territorial integrity of Syria. We see not the desire to help to
extinguish the conflict as soon as possible, but rather the desire
to assist those who want to take practical steps for regime change
in the Syrian Arab Republic. ...

What it would mean is that vast swaths of territory along the
border of Turkey and Iraq would be isolated, it's to the east of
the Euphrates river. There are difficult relations between Kurds
and Arabs there. If you say that this zone will be controlled by
the forces supported by the US, there will be a force of 30,000
people. ...

There is a fear that they are pursuing a policy to cut Syria into
several pieces."<END QUOTE>

Not surprisingly, Syria's foreign ministry denounced the plan for the
Border Security Force:

<QUOTE>"Syria strongly condemns the US announcement on the
creation of militias in the country's northeast, which represents
a blatant attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity and
unity of Syria, and a flagrant violation of international law.

Syria considers any Syrian who participates in these militias
sponsored by the Americans as a traitor to their people and
nation, and will deal with them on this basis."<END QUOTE>

Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics
predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the
"axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be
pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.

This prediction indicates that the current alliance between Turkey and
Russia will end at some point soon. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and AP and Russia Today and Al Jazeera

Related Articles

• Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib (13-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Turkey announces major military operation in Syria's Idlib province (09-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Turkey reshuffles military in preparation to attack Kurds in northern Syria (10-Aug-2017)
  
  
• US military moves to protect Syrian Kurds from Turkey's military (03-May-2017)
  
  
• Turkey returns to war with the Kurdish PKK (03-Aug-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Border Security Force, BSF,
Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Iraq, Euphrates River Valley,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Afrin, Manbij, Raqqa,
Thomas F. Veale, Joseph Votel, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Jan-18 World View -- France's Emmanuel Macron vows no more Jungle refugee camps in Calais

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• France's Emmanuel Macron vows no more Jungle refugee camps in Calais
  
• Macron demands more money from Britain and to renegotiate the Le Touquet Agreement
  

****
**** France's Emmanuel Macron vows no more Jungle refugee camps in Calais
****


Emmanuel Macro was warmly received by residents of Calais on Tuesday (Sky News)

France's president Emmanuel Macron visited the port city of Calais on
Tuesday, in preparation for a visit to meet Britain's prime minister
Theresa May in London, later this week.

Calais is significant because it has the entrance to the Channel
Tunnel that provides auto and rail connections through the English
Channel to Dover in England. In recent years, refugees from numerous
countries, including Syria, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Sudan
have made their illegally, often by paying exorbitant rates to human
traffickers, to reach Calais, in the hope of finding a way to reach
Britain and apply for asylum there.

Calais became the home of a huge migrant camp called "The Jungle,"
housing 7,000 migrants. French authorities shut the camp down in
October 2016, forcing the migrants to disperse or to be housed in
refugee centers in other parts of France. In the refugee centers,
they could apply for asylum and remain in France if the application
was accepted, or be deported to their home countries if the
application was rejected. In 2017, there were 100,000 asylum
applications in France, 17% higher than in 2016. Among refugees whose
asylum applications are rejected, reports indicate that only 20-30%
are actually deported.

The Jungle camp was shut down by Macron's predecessor François
Hollande, but Macron has vigorously adopted policies to prevent any
sort of camp to reemerge. Macron's policies have been so harsh that
some pro-refugee activists are comparing Macron unfavorably to the
hated former anti-immigrant president Nicolas Sarkozy.

According to various reports, police are treating refugees brutally.
Materials such as sleeping bags and covers are being confiscated and
thrown out. Refugees are prevented from sleeping in the open, so they
have to run into the woods and sleep there. Sometimes the police
spray food with teargas so that it become inedible.

According to Macron during Tuesday's visit to Calais:

<QUOTE>""There will be no reconstruction of the Jungle and no
tolerance for the illegal occupation of public space. ... We have
a responsibility to protect those who are in danger, [but] we
can't welcome millions of people who live in peace in their
countries."<END QUOTE>

However, Macron's critics say that he is badly out of touch.
According to Olivier Brachet, a judge who specializes on asylum cases:

<QUOTE>"The policy of Macron belongs to the world of
yesterday, not to the world of today. It is very traditional. Yes
to political asylum, no to economic migration.

Prime ministers and presidents have been saying that already for
thirty years. That is not where the problem lies. The problem is
sending back irregular migrants to their country. There are no
bilateral solutions. In fact, there are only European
solutions. Because individual countries are not going to lift a
finger by saying, ok, we agree, we’ll take them."<END QUOTE>

At present, there are still nearly 1,000 people in the region, camped
out in one way or another, with 700 migrants estimated in Calais, and
a further 300 or so in nearby Dunkirk. RFI
and Sky News and Reuters

****
**** Macron demands more money from Britain and to renegotiate the Le Touquet Agreement
****

The Le Touquet Agreement was signed in February 2003 by then French
Minister of Interior Nicolas Sarkozy and his British counterpart David
Blunkett. In many ways, it's quite novel. It grants a small region
of France's land to Britain, so that Britain can set up border
controls on the French side of the English Channel, rather than on the
British side.

Without the Le Touquet Agreement, migrants arriving in Calais could
travel to Britain with no hindrance. With the agreement, migrants
arriving in Calais are on British soil as they approach the Channel
Tunnel, and so they are subject to British border controls before they
ever cross the Channel. It's generally agreed that this arrangement
has prevented huge waves of migrants from crossing the Channel to
reach Britain.

It's worth noting that the Le Touquet Agreement is a bilateral
agreement between Britain and France, and so it is not affected by
Brexit. However, it's becoming a bit of leverage to be used by France
to gain concessions from Britain in the Brexit negotiations.

According to Calais mayor Natacha Bouchart:

<QUOTE>"We are the ones suffering the economic consequences
of the [Le Touquet] border deal, which the British have no
intention of renegotiating.

Aid workers try to help them, and there are local shelters where
they can seek assistance. But most don’t want our help. They put
themselves in awful situations and don’t want anything from
France.

There are between 400 and 600 migrants in Calais. They want to go
to the UK and are always making trouble. They stop drivers and
jump into UK-bound bound lorries.

They storm the ring road leading to the port and attack riot
police using metals bars and heavy objects, risking their lives
and the lives of locals. ... The local population is tired of
this situation, it’s unacceptable.

The Treaty of Touquet has to be re-negotiated. We cannot satisfy
ourselves with a British government that just helps us to keep its
own security. They have to give economic compensation to the city
of Calais and to its projects."<END QUOTE>

Reports indicate that, because of Macron's demands, Britain has
already agreed to renegotiate the agreement, and in particular has
agreed to increase its financial contributions. France's interior
minister Gerard Collomb said, "Our understanding is that they will pay
more. The question is how much and for what."

There are further discussions of a "Franco-British operational task
force," which will be responsible for managing all the migrants on the
French side, and Britain will also be required to accept more migrants
than it has in the past.

It's believed that neither side has any appetite for abandoning the Le
Touquet Agreement altogether, as Calais would immediately become a
magnet for thousands more migrants wishing to travel to Britain.
France 24 and Express (London) and Telegraph (London) and PDF: Text of 2003 Le Touquet Treaty

Related Articles

• Afghan and Eritrean migrants clash at site of 'Jungle' in Calais France (24-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Migrant camp in northern France housing 1,600 people burnt to the ground (12-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Thousands of refugees hide from French police as Calais 'Jungle' refugee camp is demolished (28-Oct-2016)
  
  
• France to demolish 'The Jungle' migrant camp in Calais (22-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Bulldozers bury the 'Jungle' refugee camp in Calais France (02-Mar-2016)
  

[*] Furious Sarkozy tirade at EU meeting over Roma Gypsies (17-Sep-2010)
[/list]

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Calais, Dunkirk, The Jungle,
Britain, Theresa May, Channel Tunnel, Dover, David Plunkett,
Syria, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan,
English Channel, Emmanuel Macron, Nicolas Sarkozy, François Hollande,
Gerard Collomb, Olivier Brachet, Le Touquet Agreement, Natacha Bouchart

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Jan-18 World View -- North Korea's Olympics publicity stunt gains widespread media adoration

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US, Canada sponsor international North Korea meeting to send signal to China, Russia
  
• North Korea's Olympics publicity stunt gains widespread media adoration
  

****
**** US, Canada sponsor international North Korea meeting to send signal to China, Russia
****


The South Korean women`s ice hockey team may play with the North Korean team (Yonhap)

The United States and Canada are co-sponsoring an international
meeting to discuss actions to be taken to prevent North Korea's
development of a nuclear weapon deliverable by a ballistic missile.

According to Canada's foreign ministry:

<QUOTE>"In this spirit, Canada is co-hosting, with the United
States, the Vancouver Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on Security and
Stability on the Korean Peninsula on January 16, 2018. The
Vancouver group of foreign ministers from across the globe will
meet to demonstrate solidarity in opposition to North Korea’s
dangerous and illegal actions and work together to strengthen
diplomatic efforts toward a secure, prosperous and denuclearized
Korean peninsula. To this end, foreign ministers will also discuss
ways to increase the effectiveness of the global sanctions regime
in support of a rules-based international order."<END QUOTE>

It's almost buried, but the key word here is "denuclearized."

And when you drill down what the term "denuclearized" means to the
meeting participants, it means that all nuclear weapons and nuclear
weapons development must be completely removed from North Korea, and
full, thorough international inspections have to be put in place.
When that happens, then all international sanctions will be moved, and
the result will be "a secure, prosperous and denuclearized Korean
peninsula."

Here's a list of the 20 countries attending the meeting: Canada,
United States, Australia, Belgium, Colombia, Denmark, France, Greece,
India, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines,
Republic of Korea, Sweden, Thailand, Turkey, and United Kingdom.

Two countries are missing: China and Russia.

This is infuriating China. In the delusional New Year's speech of
China's president Xi Jinping, he bragged that China will "always be a
builder of world peace, contributor of global development and keeper
of international order," even though China is an international
criminal, having repeated Hitler's actions by annexing other
countries' regions and building illegal military bases in the South
China Sea. (See "1-Jan-18 World View -- Xi Jinping says that China will now have a 'say' on all international issues"
)

So China is calling the Vancouver meeting "illegitimate" and "cold war
thinking." Russia said that the meeting was "a threat to peace
efforts." Russia invaded Georgia and made Georgia's provinces of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia into Russian controlled puppets; Russia
invaded Ukraine and Crimea, and illegally annexed Crimea. Russia and
China always support each other's criminal activities, and so the US
and Canada decided that there was no point in inviting them to
Tuesday's conference.

In an interview on Wednesday, president Donald Trump praised China for
its efforts to restrict oil and coal supplies to North Korea but said
that China could do much more. He also said:

<QUOTE>"Russia is not helping us at all with North Korea.
What China is helping us with, Russia is denting. In other words,
Russia is making up for some of what China is doing. ...

But unfortunately we don’t have much of a relationship with
Russia, and in some cases it’s probable that what China takes
back, Russia gives. So the net result is not as good as it could
be."<END QUOTE>

The official reason being given why Russia and China were not invited
to the meeting is that it's a meeting of a 20-country working group
that fought in the Korean war 65 years ago. This is an obvious
excuse, since the real reason is that China and Russia are not
believed and not trusted. In fact, many people suspect that they're
happy with North Korea's nuclear missiles, since the nuclear missiles
are pointed at the United States, and not at them.

Russia and China want all such meetings to be held in the UN Security
Council, where they can give nonsensical speeches and can veto
anything they don't like. The fact that Russia and China are so
furious that a meeting is being held without them indicates a great
deal of anxiety that they may not be able to get away forever with
lying and showboating. Canadian Foreign Ministry and South China Morning Post and AP and Canadian Press

Related Articles

• Xi Jinping says that China will now have a 'say' on all international issues (01-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism (24-Oct-2017)
  

****
**** North Korea's Olympics publicity stunt gains widespread media adoration
****

Most of the mainstream media are bubbling with glee at the news of
North Korea's participation in the winter Olympics games to be held in
South Korea from February 9-25.

The plans for North Korean participation announced so far include:

• North Koreans and South Koreans will march in the Olympics
  together, under one flag, known as the "unification flag."
  
  
• North and South Koreans will field a joint women's hockey team.
  "These are small steps, but they're incredibly significant steps,
  being met with joy and hope in South Korea," according to the
  BBC.
  
  
• The North would like to send a 150-person delegation to the
  Olympics, including athletes and reporters, though there's a question
  whether the athletes qualified in time.
  
  
• North Korea will send a 230-member cheerleading squad to the
  Olympics. There may also be a girl pop band.
  
  
• Kim Jong-un's wife, Ri Sol Ju, may be part of the female
  cheerleading squad.
  
  
• North Korea will send its 140-member Samjiyon band — an orchestra
  with dancers and vocalists.

(Being the cynical person that I am, I'm going to guess that the girls
in the 230-member cheerleading squad will be mingling with the North
Korean athletes, and will have been trained to watch for and report
any signs of defections.)

Many media sources are describing this as a public relations
masterstroke by North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un, and that may
be right. At the beginning of the year, North Korea was under
enormous pressure to end its development of nuclear missiles. He
carefully orchestrated the announcements that the North would be
participating in the Olympics, and in doing so he bought himself 2-3
months' time to continue nuclear and ballistic missile development
with little cost to himself.

It's worth noting that almost all mainstream media sources, even those
bubbling over with glee at developments, are questioning Kim Jong-un's
motives. Surprisingly, some media sources credit the Olympics games
breakthrough to Donald Trump's harsh tweets. One analysis in
Seoul-based Chosun Ilbo even worries that the developments will give
the North much needed cash:

<QUOTE>"North and South Korea will hold a celebration in the
North's scenic Mt. Kumgang resort on the eve of the 2018 Winter
Olympics in Pyeongchang, and have skiers from both sides will
train in Masikryong Ski Resort on North Korea's east coast.

South Korean officials made the proposal during talks in the
border truce village of Panmunjom on Wednesday and North Korea
agreed. The latest agreement raises fears that package tours to
Mt. Kumgang could resume and provide the North with cash for its
nuclear and missile programs, and that Seoul could weaken economic
sanctions against North Korea."<END QUOTE>

In fact, it seems apparent that few people are being fooled by Kim
Jong-un's publicity stunt. Even in his New Year's speech in which he
announced his participation in the games, and that "people who share
the same blood [should] be happy together," he also said that North
Korea now has "a super-powerful thermonuclear weapon" such that "the
entire US mainland is in our nuclear striking range," so that "The
United States can never provoke a war against me and our state."
North Korea will "mass produce nuclear warheads and ballistic
rockets," in order to create an arsenal of such weapons.

This extremely belligerent threat has not been forgotten, and was
well-remembered by the participants in the Canada-US sponsored meeting
on North Korea held on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Trump's chief of staff John Kelly was interviewed on Fox News on
Wednesday, and said the following about the North Korea situation (my
transcription):

<QUOTE>"This is one of those things that landed on this
president's lap [when he took office]. It's been in the process
for 25 years. We've kicked the can down the road. The problem at
this point in time is there's no road left. We have to deal with
this guy. He cannot have a deliverable atomic weapon that can
reach the united states reliably. It just cannot be. Obviously
the president would much prefer to do this in alliance with every
other nation of good will to convince this guy that it is not in
his interest. But I believe we're out of road."<END QUOTE>

I cannot imagine any statement more clearly made than this one that
since "we're out of road," action has to be taken imminently.
Furthermore, this is consistent with any number of statements in the
last year by Trump, H.R. McMaster, Steve Bannon, Lindsey Graham, and
others.

There seems no way out of this. Either Kim Jong-un will have to back
down, in which case he'll probably be killed by his generals, or Trump
will order some military action to remove the North Korean threat,
possibly leading a major regional or world war.

It looks like the North Korea nuclear issue is on pause until the
February 25, when the Olympics games end. At that time, I would
expect something to happen. Chosun Ilbo (Seoul) and Korea Herald
and Washington Post and Reuters

Related Articles:

• US officials plan for military strike on North Korea and war (05-Dec-2017)
  
  
• China's envoy to North Korea fails to end nuclear crisis (21-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Donald Trump in Seoul issues stern warning to North Korea -- and to China (09-Nov-2017)
  
  
• North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul? (18-Oct-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Canada, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, South Korea,
China, Xi Jinping, South China Sea, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Crimea,
John Kelly, H.R. McMaster, Steve Bannon, Lindsey Graham

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Jan-18 World View -- Britain and France renew 1904 Entente Cordiale with new military agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain and France renew 1904 Entente Cordiale with new military agreement
  
• Britain will pay £44.5 million to renew the Le Touquet migration agreement
  

****
**** Britain and France renew 1904 Entente Cordiale with new military agreement
****


Emmanuel Macron and Theresa May meeting at Sandhurst Military Academy on Thursday (Stefan Rousseau/PA)

On Thursday, France's president Emmanuel Macron visited Britain's
prime minister Theresa May at Sandhurst Military Academy near London,
where they announced a collection of military agreements.

The agreements are being described as a new Entente Cordiale
("Friendly Agreement"). This refers to an agreement that the two
countries signed on April 8, 1904, resolving long-standing colonial
disputes in North Africa, and creating a united front against Germany
a decade before the Great War (World War I) began. Under the
agreement, France recognized Britain's control over Egypt, and Britain
recognized France's control over Morocco. When the German government
sent Kaiser Wilhelm II to Morocco in March 1905 to challenge France's
hegemony there, Britain sided with France.

The new agreement creates a military alliance between the two largest
military powers in Europe, the only two nuclear powers in Europe, and
Europe's two permanent members of the United States Security Council.
With Britain leaving the European Union, it was felt that this
bilateral alliance between the two countries takes on increased
importance.

The elements of the agreement include the following:

• In 2019, Britain will send three RAF CH-47 Chinook transport
  heavy lift helicopters to provide logistical support to Operation
  Barkhane, the French operation targeting jihadists in Mali and the
  African Sahel, along with 50-60 support staff.
  
  
• France and Britain will deepen their operational cooperation in
  Estonia. In 2019, France will send troops to join the UK-led battle
  group in Estonia where 800 British soldiers are helping to guard
  Nato's eastern flank with Russia, as a "proportionate response to
  Russia’s more assertive foreign policy and military activity.".
  
  
• By 2020, Britain and France will achieve full operating capability
  for a Combined Joint Expeditionary Force of 10,000 that will be ready
  to deploy "quickly and effectively to face any threat."
  
  
• Britain's intelligence agencies -- MI5, MI6, GCHQ -- will work
  more closely together with their French counterparts -- DGSE and
  DGSI.

According to May, "Together we will continue to play a full role to
improve the security of the continent." BBC and UK-France Security and Defense Agreement (PDF) and History.com and International Business Times

****
**** Britain will pay £44.5 million to renew the Le Touquet migration agreement
****

As we described two days ago

France's president Emmanuel Macron is demanding additional payment
from Britain to continue the Le Touquet agreement.

The Le Touquet Agreement was signed in February 2003, and it grants a
small region of France's land in Calais to Britain, so that Britain
can set up border controls on the French side of the English Channel,
rather than on the British side.

Without the Le Touquet Agreement, migrants arriving in Calais could
travel to Britain with no hindrance. With the agreement, migrants
arriving in Calais are on British soil as they approach the Channel
Tunnel, and so they are subject to British border controls before they
ever cross the Channel. It's generally agreed that this arrangement
has prevented huge waves of migrants from crossing the Channel to
reach Britain.

However, French officials have long complained that they bear the
economic consequences of the Le Touquet agreement. Thousands of
migrants have traveled from countries like Syria, Afghanistan,
Eritrea, Ethiopia and Sudan to Calais in hopes of crossing the
Channel, but instead they get stopped in Calais, and the Calais
authorities become responsible for providing humane treatment and
dealing with any associated crime, as well as migrant camps like The
Jungle. Without the agreement, they would simply travel on to Dover,
and Britain would have all those problems.

So on Thursday, Britain's prime minister Theresa May agree to invest
£44.5 million ($62 million) to reinforce security measures in Calais,
including fencing, CCTV and detection technology.

Britain also committed to taking in a higher proportion of migrants
than they have in the past. In particular, they will resettle 480
unaccompanied children currently in Calais. France 24 and BBC and Reuters and BBC

Related Articles

• France's Emmanuel Macron vows no more Jungle refugee camps in Calais (17-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Afghan and Eritrean migrants clash at site of 'Jungle' in Calais France (24-Aug-2017)
  
  
• France promotes 'G5 Sahel' peacekeeping force in west Africa after jihadist attacks (16-Aug-2017)
  
  
• A precarious Estonia joins the troubled euro zone (30-Dec-2010)
  
  
• Ethnic Russians rioting in Estonia after Soviet statue was moved (28-Apr-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, France, Entente Cordiale,
Emmanuel Macron, Theresa May, Sandhurst Military Academy,
Egypt, Morocco, Germany, Mali, Sahel, Estonia,
MI5, MI6, GCHQ, DGSE, DGSI, Calais, Le Touquet agreement,
English Channel, Dover

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Jan-18 World View -- Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria
  
• Collapse of the Russian 'peace process'
  
• The growing conflagration in northwest Syria
  

****
**** Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria
****


Many thousands of displaced Syrians in Afrin and Idlib will likely be displaced again (AFP)

For months, Turkish officials, including president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, have been threatening to invade a region of northern Syria to
kill or expel Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) militias. The
target region is a corridor of land along the northern border between
the cities of Afrin in the west and Manbij in the east. We've
reported on Turkey's plans to invade Afrin and Manbij several times in
the past.

On Friday, Turkish military forces massed on Turkey's southern border
with Syria, and began artillery shelling targets within Afrin. There
has been described as the beginning of the Turkish officials, but so
far Turkish troops have not crossed the border, and no time is being
given for when that will happen. Because there have been numerous
claims for months that an invasion of Afrin was coming soon, and none
has occurred so far, we cannot be certain that an actual invasion will
occur at this time, or whether it's just another bluff. Presumably,
we will know by the end of the weekend.

If the ground invasion occurs, Turkey's forces will be combined with
forces from the Free Syrian Army, which is comprised of Syrian Arabs
and Turkmens.

This invasion would not lead to a direct conflict with US-backed
forces in the recently announced Border Security Force (BSF), because
Afrin and Manbij are both west of the Euphrates River Value, which is
the western boundary of the region to be patrolled by the BSF.
However, the US State Dept. has counseled Turkey not to attack YPG
forces in Afrin, because doing so could destabilize the entire region.

The US has been working with the YPG because the Kurds have proven
themselves to be the most effective fighters in Syria against the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) -- better than
the Turks, the Russians and the Syrians. However, Turkey is
infuriated by this relationship, because they consider all Kurds in
Syria to be linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is a
terrorist group that has conducted an insurgency within Turkey for
three decades, and has perpetrated number spectacular terrorist
bombings in Turkey. But Turkish officials have called the BSD a
"terrorist army" being supported by the US military, and have vowed to
"drown" it. Reuters and Hurriyet (Ankara) and News Click (India)

Related Articles

• Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib (13-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Turkey's assault on Kurds in Afrin, Syria, may jeopardize the battle in Raqqa (14-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
  

****
**** Collapse of the Russian 'peace process'
****

Another major player in the region is the Russian military. Russia's
president Vladimir Putin has been pursuing his delusional peace in
Syria with the hope of being recognized worldwide as the man who
brought peace to Syria.

Actually, Russia's attempts at peace have just been another farce.
Russia, Iran and Turkey held several rounds of peace talks last year
in Astana, Kazakhstan, and came up with a plan for four
"de-confliction zones" or "ceasefire zones." Unfortunately, Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad did not endorse the talks, nor any of its
agreements. So al-Assad has completely ignored the de-confliction
zones, using them as cover to continue his genocidal acts, such as
attacking innocent women and children in Eastern Ghouta using WMDs
(chlorine gas) and barrel bombs. In addition, al-Assad's barrel bombs
and missiles are specifically targeting hospitals and schools, in
order to destroy as much life as possible.

So Russia's de-confliction zones have simply been turned int al-Assad
war zones. Because of his delusional belief in these de-confliction
zones, Putin announced in December that the war was over, but it's far
from over. Putin also announced that Russian troops would be
withdrawn, but repeated attacks on Russia's Khmeimim airbase by
"terrorists" means that Russian troops will have to remain, since
protection of the base cannot be trusted to dysfunctional Syrian
troops.

Another part of Putin's delusional peace plan was that he was going to
convince the Kurds to agree to some kind of peace arrangement with
Bashar al-Assad, and convince the YPG to give up its weapons, so that
everyone could live in peace and happiness.

That plan has already been upended by the US announced of the Border
Security Force, which is to consist of 15,000 hardened YPG fighters,
along with another 15,000 trainees. Turkey has expressed so much fury
and outrage over what it calls this "terrorist army," that the US
backing off somewhat, and saying that, oh, it's not really an army or
anything like that, but just a bunch of policemen doing guard duty.
However, the Turks don't believe that.

But Russia still has a relationship with the Kurds, and last year
Putin sent troops to Afrin, presumably to protect the Kurds from the
Turks. So there have been reports all week that the Turks were
meeting with the Russians to ask for permission to invade Afrin. The
reports on Friday were that Russian troops were withdrawing from
Afrin, but other unconfirmed reports from Russia say that the Russians
are denying that they're withdrawing their troops.

So, we know that Turkey is massing troops, but there are a couple of
things that we don't know: We don't know whether Turkey got Russia's
permission, and we don't know if Turkey will invade anyway. Jamestown and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Reuters

Related Articles

• Syria's Bashar al-Assad targets civilians and hospitals in never-ending war of extermination (07-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin hug and declare the end of war in Syria (27-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Syria and Russia see 'the light at the end of the tunnel' after Aleppo victory (18-Dec-2016)
  

****
**** The growing conflagration in northwest Syria
****

Turkey's invasion of northern Syria would come at the same time that
Bashar al-Assad is pursuing massive waves of attacks on ordinary
civilians in Idlib, another one of Russia's "de-confliction zones" or
"ceasefire zones" which al-Assad has turned into war zones.

There are 2.6 million civilians living in Idlib, and they've
essentially become sitting ducks for massive attacks by Syrian and
Russian warplanes. ( "14-Jan-18 World View -- Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands more refugees into Turkey and Europe"
)

Hundreds of thousands of civilians are being forced to flee north
toward the border with Turkey, and in many scenarios, they will cross
the border into Turkey, and produce new waves of migrants reaching
Europe.

At the same time, Turkey is threatening to attack Kurdish enclaves in
a region stretching from Afrin to Manbij, creating even more hundreds
of thousands of refugees. These two situations could combine to bring
about a refugee disaster of massive proportions. This would be a
repeat of what's already occurred, when millions of Syrian refugees
fled into neighboring countries, with more than a million reaching
Europe.

Reading the Turkish media makes it clear that Turkey is becoming
extremely nationalistic and xenophobic, with the xenophobia directed
not only at the Kurds, but also at Americans and Israelis, who are
increasingly being blamed for their troubles. Turkey's relationship
with Russia is a marriage of convenience if there ever was one, and
the actions by Russia's ally, Bashar al-Assad, in Idlib are creating a
refugee disaster on Turkey's doorstep.

Generational Dynamics predictions that I've been posting for years
haven't changed. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is
headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews
versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India,
Russia and Iran. Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Anadolu (Ankara) and Al Araby (UK)

Related Articles

• Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands more refugees into Turkey and Europe (14-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Russia uses the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter in Aleppo Syria (02-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Kurds, People's Protection Units, YPG, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Afrin, Manbij, Border Security Force, BSF,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, de-confliction zones, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Eastern Ghouta, Idlib, Khmeimim airbase, Bashar al-Assad

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Jan-18 World View -- Turkey begins invasion of Syria while China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey begins its air and ground invasion of Syria's Afrin
  
• China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty' in new confrontation in South China Sea
  
• Summary of major Generational Dynamics predictions
  

****
**** Turkey begins its air and ground invasion of Syria's Afrin
****


Map showing Syrian cities of Afrin and Manbij, both Kurdish YPG strongholds, and targets of Turkey's planned invasions (al-Jazeera)

While we're stuck with suffering through the unbelievably pathetic
clown circus going on in Washington, there are actually things going
on in other parts of the world.

Turkey's military operation against Syria's Afrin region that we described yesterday
has begun.
Turkish warplanes have conducted hundreds of airstrikes at Kurdish YPG
(People's Protection Units) targets in Afrin. Turkey-backed Free
Syrian Army (FSA) militias are moving into Afrin to conduct the ground
war. The FSA consists of Arabs and Turkmens opposed to the regime of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.

Russia says that it has moved its 300 or so troops out of Afrin to
safety. Russia, which controls the airspace over Afrin, is not
stopping Turkey's airstrikes, indicating that Russia is giving tacit
approval to Turkey's operation.

Turkey's own troops have not crossed the border into Syria, although
there have been reports of trucks carrying Turkish tanks crossing the
border to Afrin. Turkey would have no reason to commit its own troops
unless the FSA troops started getting bogged down.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that the after Afrin
the next target will be Manbij. Although Manbij is west of
the Euphrates River Valley, there are American units in the region,
so a clash with Americans would be a possibility, although it's
likely that both sides would do everything to avoid it.

In a speech on Saturday, Erdogan said:

<QUOTE>"The promises made to us over Manbij were not kept. So
nobody can object if we do what is necessary.

Later we will, step by step, clear our country up to the Iraqi
border from this terror filth that is trying to besiege our
country."<END QUOTE>

This refers to several American promises that were not kept. The
Americans promised that the YPG would be armed and trained only until
the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) was defeated
in Raqqa, but is continuing to arm and train YPG fighters for its
Border Security Force (BSF). The Americans promised that they would
withdraw as soon as ISIS was defeated, but now are saying that they
will stay indefinitely, rather than risk repeating the blunder
made with the 2011 withdrawal from
Iraq.

Turkey's ground invasion is highly risky. Both the FSA militias and
the YPG militias are battle hardened, and the victory in Afrin may not
be as quick as Erdogan is fantasizing. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Al Jazeera and Hurriyet

Related Articles

• Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria (20-Jan-2018)
  
  
• US in Syria announces a Border Security Force to prevent repeat of Iraq withdrawal blunder (16-Jan-2018)
  

****
**** China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty' in new confrontation in South China Sea
****


Map showing that the Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal is far from China, but within the Philippines EEZ (Inquirer)

According to Lu Kang, the spokesman for China's foreign ministry:

<QUOTE>"On the night of January 17, the USS Hopper missile
destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles off China's Huangyan Dao
[i.e., the Philippines' Scarborough Shoal] without gaining
permission from the Chinese government. ...

China has indisputable sovereignty over Huangyan Dao [Scarborough
Shoal] and the adjacent waters."<END QUOTE>

Lu Kang is a serial liar. Whether the subject is Doklam Plateau,
the South China Sea, Taiwan, or North Korea, Lu Kang says any
nonsense he wants, with no regard for the facts.

China has no sovereignty whatsoever over the Scarborough Shoal. It's
within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines, as shown
by the above map. In 2016, Lu Kang and China were completely
humiliated when United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the
Hague ruled that all of China's claims in the South China Sea were hoaxes and lies.

Even the word "indisputable" is a lie on its face. Obviously China's
claims are disputable, have been disputed, and have been shown to be
false. Lu Kang is a serial liar.

American naval spokesman Commander Nicole Schwegman responded:

<QUOTE>"The United States conducts routine and regular FONOPs
[Freedom of Navigation Operations], as we have done in the past
and will continue to do so in the future.

We have a comprehensive FONOP program under which U.S. forces
challenge excessive maritime claims across the globe to
demonstrate our commitment to uphold the rights, freedoms and
lawful uses of the sea and airspace guaranteed to all nations
under international law. FONOPs are not about any one country, nor
are they about making political statements. FONOPS are designed to
comply with international law and not threaten the lawful security
interest of coastal States."<END QUOTE>

That the US simply ignores China's false claims in the South China
Sea is undoubtedly very humiliating to the Chinese, who become
infuriated whenever anyone challenges their false claims.

This is the second time this week that the Chinese were humiliated by
an American action. The US and Canada co-sponsored an international meeting to discuss the North Korea crisis,
and China was totally infuriated that it wasn't
invited to attend. Foreign Ministry of China and Inquirer (Manila) and ABC News

Related Articles

• North Korea's Olympics publicity stunt gains widespread media adoration (18-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Xi Jinping says that China will now have a 'say' on all international issues (01-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** Summary of major Generational Dynamics predictions
****

The following is a summary of the major Generational Dynamics
predictions that I've posted in the past. None of this is new, except
that all of these predictions are listed together in one place. These
predictions have been essentially unchanged for over ten years.

First, by way of introduction, although I sometimes call myself the
gloomiest person in the world, it's worth noting that there are other
forecasts that are gloomier than mine. These include the
following:

• The view that any nuclear war will kill all humanity, with the
  possible exception of some scattered small communities that move to
  sealed underground caves to escape the radiation.
  
  
• The Biblical end times: Parallels are drawn between today's events
  and the visions in Revelations, leading to the prediction that Jesus
  Christ will return soon.
  
  
• Albert Einstein: "I know not with what weapons World War III will
  be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
  
  
• A new Dark Age, similar to the Dark Ages of Medieval times,
  characterized by centuries of ignorance and barbarism will
  begin.

So my oft-stated Generational Dynamics predictions are these:

• There will be a major global financial panic and crisis. As
  in 1929, there will be a quick recovery from the panic, but the crash
  will continue over a long period, with stock prices falling 90%.
  However, the trigger and timing of the panic cannot be predicted.
  
  
• The Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis
  versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against
  each other.
  
  
• The world is headed for WW III, a Clash of Civilizations world
  war, in which the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
  countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia,
  Iran and the West.
  
  
• Like WW I and WW II, WW III will last around five years, though
  there may be regional offshoots that last longer. (Examples: China's
  Communist Revolution, India-Pakistan Partition war, and Jew-Arab
  Mideast war after WW II.)
  
  
• There will be no Biblical end times outcome. A special mention
  must be made of Isaiah 17:1-3, which predicts the destruction of
  Damascus, turning it from a city into "a heap of ruins." Almost
  everyone in the Mideast seems to know about this prophecy, so if
  anyone ever nukes Damascus, it would be with the specific purpose and
  intent of fulfilling the prophecy, which would make it a
  self-fulfilling prophecy.
  
  
• By the end of the war, every nuclear weapon in the world will have
  been used on some target. However, this does not mean that everyone
  will be killed. The kill range of a nuclear weapon is 10-20 miles,
  even counting deaths from radiation, so only a tiny fraction of the
  world's population will be killed by nuclear weapons.
  
  
• A total of about 3-4 billion people will be killed by the war,
  from nuclear weapons, conventional weapons, ground war, marauding
  gangs, disease and starvation, leaving around 4 billion people to
  rebuild the world.
  
  
• At the end of the war, there will be an international conference
  in some place like Geneva to come up with a way to guarantee that
  nothing like this ever happens again. National boundaries will be
  redrawn as necessary. The United Nations will be restructured.
  
  
• Technology development will continue as before. Most of the world
  will be minimally but solidly rebuilt within five years. This will be
  a typical generational First Turning Recovery Era.
  
  
• The Singularity will occur around 2030. The future of the human
  race after that point is uncertain.

Related Articles

• Arab views of Iran nuclear deal (15-Jul-2015)
  
  
• Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement (09-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Google's AlphaGo computer defeats world champion at game of Go (13-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030 (28-Dec-2015)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Afrin,
Kurds, People's Protection Units, YPG,
Afrin, Manbij, Border Security Force, BSF,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Bashar al-Assad,
China, Lu Kang, Philippines, Scarborough Shoal, Panatag Shoal,
USS Hopper, Nicole Schwegman, South China Sea
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, North Korea,
Generational Dynamics predictions

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

So selfish Boomers prevent other countries from exercising their sovereign rights in the middle east, Syria in particular as well as in Asia, while at the same time preventing anyone younger than them from exercising their constitutional rights in the US and their national/federal rights in the case of Europe. The boomers ARE the 4T crisis, that is the case because western boomers are placing the survival of the human race in question simply in order to impose their disgusting utopia where every country in the world has a democratic global-minded government established there. Turkey, Russia, Syria, China, and other countries are merely exercising their sovereign rights, as well as Xers, Millies and younger people within the west. It is the boomer who seeks to lobotomize the human condition. The Boomer establishment will NOT succeed in this goal.