Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

(02-25-2018, 02:21 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > "Numerous administration officials have made it clear that North
> Korea will not be permitted to have a nuclear weapon"

> Numerous administration officials have said that, but they haven't
> at all made it clear. To me, their statements sounds mostly like
> empty posturing.

> So will China agree to enforcement of sanctions through a blockade
> by accepting a Security Council resolution authorizing that? If
> that happens, I may have to admit that Nikki Haley is competent
> after all.

I've quoted any number of administration officials who have said this
quite clearly and unequivocally. Here's one quote from John Kelly:

John Kelly Wrote:> This is one of those things that landed on this president's lap
> [when he took office]. It's been in the process for 25 years.
> We've kicked the can down the road. The problem at this point in
> time is there's no road left. We have to deal with this guy. He
> cannot have a deliverable atomic weapon that can reach the United
> States reliably. It just cannot be. Obviously the president
> would much prefer to do this in alliance with every other nation
> of good will to convince this guy that it is not in his interest.
> But I believe we're out of road.

** 18-Jan-18 World View -- North Korea's Olympics publicity stunt gains widespread media adoration
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e180118

And there have been many other quotes in the last year, such as
Trump's fire and fury tweets.

The logic of this situation is irresistible. We all remember how
Obama was ridiculed after refusing to make good on his "red line"
threat after al-Assad used Sarin gas, and how Trump finally made good
on Obama's threat.

If the Trump administration now does the same thing, and sits back and
lets NK develop a nuclear missile capability, it will be an act of
appeasement of historic implications, even greater than "Peace in our
time."

China will NOT support a total blockade under any circumstances.
China will NOT support a "bloody nose" attack. They will tolerate it
if they've been warned, but after it's over, the Chinese people will
be furious at the US, and it won't be long before some other
regeneracy event occurs, possibly in the South China Sea.

[John J. Xenakis]

(02-25-2018, 02:53 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > So we are seeing realignments, with the the Iran/Indian deal, for
> example.

> What other realignments may we see?

Hi Tim! Long time no see. I hope you're doing well.

You know, there are realignments going on in the Mideast almost on a
daily basis. And I still really don't understand what's going on with
this vitriolic split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

However, I still stick with the general alignments that I've been
writing about for years. When all is said and done, the Mideast war
will pit Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic
groups against each other. And the approaching Clash of Civilizations
world war will pit the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia
and Iran. Within those parameters, there are going to be
smaller realignments. For example, sometimes religion will trump
ethnicity, and vice-versa.

[Warren Dew]

(02-25-2018, 09:58 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I've quoted any number of administration officials who have said this
quite clearly and unequivocally.

What they say is irrelevant.  What matters is what they do.  And what they've done is stick to the same economic sanctions that failed under Obama and Bush, with no sign of willingness to use military intervention of any sort.

Quote:The logic of this situation is irresistible.  We all remember how
Obama was ridiculed after refusing to make good on his "red line"
threat after al-Assad used Sarin gas, and how Trump finally made good
on Obama's threat.

If the Trump administration now does the same thing, and sits back and
lets NK develop a nuclear missile capability, it will be an act of
appeasement of historic implications, even greater than "Peace in our
time."

I'm not saying it wouldn't be.  I'm just saying it's likely to happen anyway.

[John J. Xenakis]

Question: What's the name of the generation that follows the Millennial Generation?

Answer: The Pivotal Generation

http://www.afr.com/brand/afr-magazine/be...220-h08530

[Warren Dew]

I think those folks are trailing edge millenials.

[John J. Xenakis]

(02-25-2018, 10:19 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I think those folks are trailing edge millenials.

I don't think so. If the Crisis era began in 2003, then the
post-Millennial generation (the "Pivotals") would have begun in 1999,
so the first of them would now be in their late teens.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 26-Feb-18 World View -- New book documents extensive Chinese infiltration into Australia's organizations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• New book documenting China's infiltration into Australia overcomes Chinese threats
  
• New Zealand investigates attacks on author of report on China's infiltration into New Zealand
  
• Hamilton's book 'Silent Invasion' describes China's infiltration into Australia
  

****
**** New book documenting China's infiltration into Australia overcomes Chinese threats
****


China's foreign minister Wang Yi and Australia's foreign minister Julie Bishop, on 7-Feb-2017

A new book detailing China's infiltration into Australia's government
and institutions is finally being published on Monday, after
publication was repeatedly blocked because of intense pressure by
China's government on publishers.

The book, titled "Silent Invasion: How China Is Turning Australia into
a Puppet State," was written by Clive Hamilton, a left of center
professor of public ethics at Charles Sturt University. It
was supposed to be published in November by Australian publisher
Allen & Unwin, which had published 8 previous books by Hamilton.

However, the publisher's chief executive, Robert Gorman, cancelled
plans at the last minute to publish to book. He wrote an e-mail
message to Hamilton saying:

<QUOTE>"We have no doubt that Silent Invasion is an extremely
significant book. [But we are concerned about] potential threats
to the book and the company from possible action by Beijing.
... The most serious of these threats was the very high chance of
a vexatious defamation action against Allen & Unwin, and possibly
against you personally as well."<END QUOTE>

The publisher had told Hamilton that he would have to heavily edit the
book and remove large portions of the text to get it published.
According to Hamilton:

<QUOTE>"Last week Allen & Unwin did express some legal
concerns but despite that I thought they were resolved to publish
it, so it was a complete shock.

The Chinese government’s campaign is far more extensive than ever
previously understood. If you’re going to analyze how Beijing is
influencing Australian society and politics you have to analyze
that activity of individuals and name names, and that’s what I’ve
done. It’s a factual book with 1,100 footnotes and it has been
meticulously researched, but short of redacting 100 names from the
book there’s always the possibility someone might launch a
vexatious legal act against the publisher, in this case Allen &
Unwin."<END QUOTE>

In January of this year another publisher, Melbourne University Press
became the second leading publisher to cancel plans to publish the
book. Reportedly, a university official was concerned about Beijing’s
ability to dissuade students from attending the university if MUP
published the book.

In one of the online articles about this story, a commenter wrote that
he could walk into any bookstore or library in Australia and find a
dozen books that accused the CIA of controlling Australia's government
and institutions, and no one would care. However, just one book about
China is causing a furious, threatening response from China.

There are very real concerns about publishing material not approved by
the Chinese Communist Party. Within China itself, every publication
is closely censored, and writing or even reading any unapproved
publication can land a person in jail subject to severe and repeated
torture.

China's censorial reach extends past the mainland. In 2015, five Hong
Kong booksellers whose shops contain books critical of Xi and the CCP
were abducted and thrown into jail in Beijing. Four were eventually
released – three "confessed" and have remained mute, while one spoke
of his torture. The fifth is still imprisoned.

Foreign citizens are not immune. In January, Swedish citizen Gui
Minhai, a Hong Kong book publisher, was arrested in China while
accompanied by Swedish diplomats. Sweden's foreign minister Margot
Wallstrom said the "brutal intervention" against Swedish consular
support for Gui took place despite Chinese promises. But this is an
ordinary example of how the Chinese cannot be trusted about anything.
Guardian (London, 13-Nov-2017) and West Australia Today (28-Nov-2017) and South China Morning Post (6-Feb) and New Matilda (7-Feb)

****
**** New Zealand investigates attacks on author of report on China's infiltration into New Zealand
****

Two weeks ago I wrote about how University of Canterbury professor
Anne-Marie Brady in New Zealand had been threatened and robbed after
writing a report on China's infiltration into New Zealand's government.

Brady's home was broken into and three laptops, two cellphones and an
encrypted memory stick were taken. She received a threatening letter,
two months after her university office was robbed.

Brady's report and complaints about threats had been met with
skepticism by the government, but finally prime minister Jacinda
Ardern has ordered an investigation into the break-in.

In that article, I quoted extensively from Brady's report, entitled
"Magic Weapons: China's political influence activities under Xi
Jinping" to show in detail how the infiltration and propaganda works
in New Zealand. Much of what I quoted applies equally to Australia.

As Brady's report explains, China's president Xi Jinping once used the
term "magic weapon" to refer to China's United Front Work Department.
Officially it focuses on building support for the Communist Party in
China, but it's become a coercive propaganda tool targeting Chinese
globally, especially in Australia, New Zealand, the U.S., and Canada,
but in other countries as well. The agency particularly surveils and
targets Chinese students abroad and foreign universities to adopt
language that favors pro-Beijing policies, such as delegitimizing
Taiwan, and Western ideals and values, such as liberal democracy,
Christianity, or Falun Gong.

The United Front Work Department, Xi Jinping's "Magic Weapon," is as
dangerous to Australia as it is to New Zealand. Stuff (New Zealand)

****
**** Hamilton's book 'Silent Invasion' describes China's infiltration into Australia
****

By early February, the inability of Clive Hamilton to get his book
published because of legal threats from China was causing some alarm
to members of the Australian parliament's national security committee,
and they actually considered having the parliament serve as publisher
of the manuscript. That would have protected Hamilton from being
sued, but questions were also raised about the appropriateness of
giving a special privilege to a particular author.

Finally, the book was recently acquired by Hardie Grant, run by Sandy
Grant, who in the 1980s published the controversial memoir of former
British intelligence officer Peter Wright. The publication occurred
against the wishes of the British government, which was trying to
censor the book.

Clive Hamilton says that he became interested in this subject in 2008.
He was at Parliament House in Canberra when the Beijing Olympic torch
relay passed through. He watched in bewilderment as a small pro-Tibet
protest was overrun by thousands of angry Chinese students. They came
out of nowhere and seemed to shut down the pro-Tibet protests, and the
authorities did nothing about it. What was going on?

In 2016 it was revealed that wealthy Chinese businessmen linked to the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had become the largest donors to both
major political parties. Hamilton realized something big was
happening, and decided to investigate the Chinese government's
influence in Australia. His research revealed evidence of CCP
influence and infiltration in politics, culture, real estate,
agriculture, universities, unions, and even primary schools.

According to the book, China's influence peddling is caused, in part,
by a recent wave of Chinese migration to Australia including
"billionaires with shady histories and tight links to the [Chinese
Communist] party, media owners creating Beijing mouthpieces,
'patriotic' students brainwashed from birth, and professionals
marshalled into pro-Beijing associations set up by the Chinese
embassy."

The book lists more than 40 former and sitting Australian politicians
allegedly doing the work of China's totalitarian Government, if
sometimes unwittingly. Many are household names. According to the
book, "[Former prime ministers Bob] Hawke and [Paul] Keating, when
their political careers ended they went on to become reliable friends
of China, shuttling between the two countries, mixing with the top
cadres and tycoons. While Hawke's China links proved lucrative,
Keating was more interested in influence." Sydney Morning Herald (5-Feb) and Boffins Books and Australian Broadcasting

Related Articles

• Concerns grow over China's covert infiltration into New Zealand's government (16-Feb-2018)
  
  
• China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea (16-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Xi Jinping says that China will now have a 'say' on all international issues (01-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism (24-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Australia's defense plans stress huge naval buildup targeting China (04-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Australian MP Clive Palmer shocks country with anti-China rant (21-Aug-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, New Zealand,
Clive Hamilton, Charles Sturt University,
Silent Invasion: How China Is Turning Australia into a Puppet State,
Allen & Unwin, Robert Gorman, Melbourne University Press,
China, Xi Jinping, Magic Weapons, United Front Work Department,
Hong Kong, Gui Minhai, Sweden, Hardie Grant, Sandy Grant,
Bob Hawke, Paul Keating,
Jacinda Ardern, University of Canterbury, Anne-Marie Brady

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John J. Xenakis
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E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
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[Warren Dew]

(02-25-2018, 10:41 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(02-25-2018, 10:19 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   I think those folks are trailing edge millenials.  

I don't think so.  If the Crisis era began in 2003, then the
post-Millennial generation (the "Pivotals") would have begun in 1999,
so the first of them would now be in their late teens.

I don't think the Crisis era began in 2003; if it had, either the muslims or us would have been wiped out by now.  Instead, the War on Terror is winding down.

My current hypothesis is that the Crisis era began in 2008 with the banking "bailouts".

[Tim Randal Walker]

Hi John, I'm doing well.  

Peter Zeihan (Zeihan.com), if I recall correctly,  did comment on Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but I don't quite understand the specific conflict myself.  Zeihan also predicts that Iran and Saudi Arabia will be on opposite sides on another Gulf War.

[John J. Xenakis]

(02-26-2018, 02:21 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > Hi John, I'm doing well.

> Peter Zeihan (Zeihan.com), if I recall correctly, did comment on
> Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but I don't quite understand the specific
> conflict myself. Zeihan also predicts that Iran and Saudi Arabia
> will be on opposite sides on another Gulf War.

The fault line between the Saudis and Qataris, who share the same
ethnicity and religion, is turning out to be so vitriolic that it's
hard to understand. It must have something to do with their history
in the Ottoman Empire, but I haven't been able to nail it down.

[John J. Xenakis]

(02-26-2018, 01:39 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I don't think the Crisis era began in 2003; if it had, either the
> muslims or us would have been wiped out by now. Instead, the War
> on Terror is winding down.

> My current hypothesis is that the Crisis era began in 2008 with
> the banking "bailouts".

It's not a matter of what anyone "thinks." Generational changes
occur based on biological timelines that have been the same
for millennia.

You've managed to squeeze into three sentences an entire mélange of
unsupported, inconsistent and incoherent guesses that don't even make
any sense. But I suppose they must make you feel good.

Anyway, the "Pivotal Generation" concept was new to me, but it turns
out that a lot of research is being done on them over the last two
years, since they're spending a lot of money, but have very different
values and behaviors from other generations. Some of values are more
similar to the Boomers, as the Pivotals pivot away from the
Millennials and Gen-Xers.

https://www.barkleyus.com/wp-content/upl...ration.pdf

By the way, the Pivotals are switching from Facebook to Snapchat and
Instagram.

https://www.emarketer.com/Article/Instag...UK/1016369

[Cynic Hero '86]

(02-26-2018, 11:28 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(02-26-2018, 01:39 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   I don't think the Crisis era began in 2003; if it had, either the
>   muslims or us would have been wiped out by now.  Instead, the War
>   on Terror is winding down.

>   My current hypothesis is that the Crisis era began in 2008 with
>   the banking "bailouts".

It's not a matter of what anyone "thinks." Generational changes
occur based on biological timelines that have been the same
for millennia.

You've managed to squeeze into three sentences an entire mélange of
unsupported, inconsistent and incoherent guesses that don't even make
any sense.  But I suppose they must make you feel good.

Anyway, the "Pivotal Generation" concept was new to me, but it turns
out that a lot of research is being done on them over the last two
years, since they're spending a lot of money, but have very different
values and behaviors from other generations.  Some of values are more
similar to the Boomers, as the Pivotals pivot away from the
Millennials and Gen-Xers.

https://www.barkleyus.com/wp-content/upl...ration.pdf

By the way, the Pivotals are switching from Facebook to Snapchat and
Instagram.

https://www.emarketer.com/Article/Instag...UK/1016369

That's right and only elite boomers believe in Human Rights, free trade, globalism, the doctrine of "America will never attack first" and other such institutions like the UN. None of the younger generations believe in that as well as many non-elite boomers. Therefore the populist interpretations and propositions during the current crisis are destined be the ones that are ultimately implemented.

[John J. Xenakis]

(02-26-2018, 01:05 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > That's right and only elite boomers believe in Human Rights, free
> trade, globalism, the doctrine of "America will never attack
> first" and other such institutions like the UN. None of the
> younger generations believe in that as well as many non-elite
> boomers. Therefore the populist interpretations and propositions
> during the current crisis are destined be the ones that are
> ultimately implemented.

Wow! You're in trouble now. The new Pivotal Generation (Generation Z)
is more like the Boomers in attitudes and values than Millennials and
Gen-Xers.

We already know you have a bizarre, irrational vitriolic hatred of
Boomers that would make you a danger to any Boomer in the same room as
you. But now you have to direct your vitriolic hatred at Pivotals as
well. You must be a very confused lad, not knowing whom you hate the
most.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(02-26-2018, 01:47 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(02-26-2018, 01:05 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   That's right and only elite boomers believe in Human Rights, free
>   trade, globalism, the doctrine of "America will never attack
>   first" and other such institutions like the UN. None of the
>   younger generations believe in that as well as many non-elite
>   boomers. Therefore the populist interpretations and propositions
>   during the current crisis are destined be the ones that are
>   ultimately implemented.

Wow! You're in trouble now.  The new Pivotal Generation (Generation Z)
is more like the Boomers in attitudes and values than Millennials and
Gen-Xers.

We already know you have a bizarre, irrational vitriolic hatred of
Boomers that would make you a danger to any Boomer in the same room as
you.  But now you have to direct your vitriolic hatred at Pivotals as
well.  You must be a very confused lad, not knowing whom you hate the
most.

The problem with your suggestions is we're in a 4T crisis era. The Boomer values are those of the 3T. Under the pressure of the Crisis era Most of the 3T doctrines are usually thrown away in favor of what allows the society to win the crisis. The 3T doctrines are therefore GUARANTEED to go the road of extinction.

[John J. Xenakis]

(02-26-2018, 02:08 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > The problem is we're in a 4T crisis era. The Boomer values are
> those of the 3T. Under the pressure of the Crisis era Most of the
> 3T doctrines are usually thrown away in favor of what allows the
> society to win the crisis. The 3T doctrines are therefore
> GUARANTEED to go the road of extinction.

I guess you don't understand the impact of what's going on. That's
not surprising, since when people like you grow older, you get
set in your ways and refuse to recognize the changes that are
going on, so you get swept away before you even know what
happened. Some people make things happen, while other people
say, "What happened?"

You may think that something or other is "GUARANTEED," but that's only
in your own hidebound views. Pivotals are sweeping away those
old-fashioned "guarantees" and adopting a new system of rules and
etiquette for social issues and global policies that are completely
different than your antiquated, archaic and outmoded views.

You'd better learn to change with the times, or you're going to be
washed away with the tide.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(02-26-2018, 02:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(02-26-2018, 02:08 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   The problem is we're in a 4T crisis era. The Boomer values are
>   those of the 3T. Under the pressure of the Crisis era Most of the
>   3T doctrines are usually thrown away in favor of what allows the
>   society to win the crisis. The 3T doctrines are therefore
>   GUARANTEED to go the road of extinction.

I guess you don't understand the impact of what's going on.  That's
not surprising, since when people like you grow older, you get
set in your ways and refuse to recognize the changes that are
going on, so you get swept away before you even know what
happened.  Some people make things happen, while other people
say, "What happened?"

You may think that something or other is "GUARANTEED," but that's only
in your own hidebound views.  Pivotals are sweeping away those
old-fashioned "guarantees" and adopting a new system of rules and
etiquette for social issues and global policies that are completely
different than your antiquated, archaic and outmoded views.

You'd better learn to change with the times, or you're going to be
washed away with the tide.

Boomers are against implementing political economic and military reform. If the boomer view of not striking is correct we therefore we should continue sanctions which would avoid war with North Korea. Therefore if North Korea knows that there is no chance of the US striking first then there is no danger of a North Korean Attack if the boomer views are correct. But that is not the Correct view; in reality North Korea is building an arsenal to attack the US with nukes or at the very least sell nukes to terrorists and other rogue states. Therefore not striking NK is not a prudent or responsible decision it is an absolutely irresponsible decision. Regard events If boomers refused to strike or lauched a limited conventional cruise missile strike and NK responded with nukes, even if the nukes only targeted bases in the region. Then it would be the "not striking first" crowd that would be discredited. America did not continue listening to Lindbergh's advice after Pearl Harbor and Germany's declaration of war.

[Warren Dew]

(02-26-2018, 11:28 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(02-26-2018, 01:39 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   I don't think the Crisis era began in 2003; if it had, either the
>   muslims or us would have been wiped out by now.  Instead, the War
>   on Terror is winding down.

>   My current hypothesis is that the Crisis era began in 2008 with
>   the banking "bailouts".

It's not a matter of what anyone "thinks."  Generational changes
occur based on biological timelines that have been the same
for millennia.

You've managed to squeeze into three sentences an entire mélange of
unsupported, inconsistent and incoherent guesses that don't even make
any sense.  But I suppose they must make you feel good.

And I'm sure your guesses make you feel good.

[Warren Dew]

(02-26-2018, 02:08 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: The problem with your suggestions is we're in a 4T crisis era. The Boomer values are those of the 3T. Under the pressure of the Crisis era Most of the 3T doctrines are usually thrown away in favor of what allows the society to win the crisis. The 3T doctrines are therefore GUARANTEED to go the road of extinction.

Boomer values are those of the second turning.  Third turning values are more reflective of Gen X.

[Warren Dew]

(02-26-2018, 02:28 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Boomers are against implementing political economic and military reform. If the boomer view of not striking is correct we therefore we should continue sanctions which would avoid war with North Korea. Therefore if North Korea knows that there is no chance of the US striking first then there is no danger of a North Korean Attack if the boomer views are correct. But that is not the Correct view; in reality North Korea is building an arsenal to attack the US with nukes or at the very least sell nukes to terrorists and other rogue states. Therefore not striking NK is not a prudent or responsible decision it is an absolutely irresponsible decision. Regard events If boomers refused to strike or lauched a limited conventional cruise missile strike and NK responded with nukes, even if the nukes only targeted bases in the region. Then it would be the "not striking first" crowd that would be discredited. America did not continue listening to Lindbergh's advice after Pearl Harbor and Germany's declaration of war.

I'm pretty sure John was just saying that he thought the Boomer establishment would, in fact, strike first against North Korea, and that he agreed with that strategy.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Feb-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia sacks its top tier of military commanders as Yemen war drags on

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• From missile strikes and bombings to cholera, war-torn Yemen deteriorates
  
• Saudi Arabia sacks its top tier of military commanders
  

****
**** From missile strikes and bombings to cholera, war-torn Yemen deteriorates
****


Saudi Arabia's 32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (AFP)

Saudi Arabia officials say that the war in Yemen is proceeding
successfully. But few people believe that. When the war began in
March 2015, the Saudis thought that they'd win quickly. The
Iran-backed Houthis, which represent about 15% of Yemen's population,
with a stronghold in northwest Yemen, had invaded and taken control of
Yemen's capital city Sanaa in late 2014, and drove out the
Saudi-supported ethnic Sunni government.

So the Saudis formed a coalition with United Arab Emirates (UAE) and
Egypt, and began airstrikes in March 2015, believing that this would
force the Houthis to the negotiating table, where they'd sue for
peace.

It hasn't worked out that way, as the Houthis proved extremely
resilient and even gained additional territory.

What the airstrikes HAVE accomplished is to turn Yemen into a
humanitarian disaster. Yemen relies heavily on food imports and is on
the brink of famine. In order to prevent import of Iranian weapons to
the Houthis, the Saudis have blockaded the ports, but this has also
made it impossible to import food, medicines and other humanitarian
aid. Yemen was already one of the poorest countries in the world, but
the blockade made things much worse. The result is that, of Yemen's
25 million population, more than 22 million are desperately need of
food and humanitarian assistance, including 11.3 million in acute
need.

The country is also facing a cholera epidemic, which has already
killed thousands of people. According to the World Health
Organization (WHO), the number of cholera infections had been in
decline in Yemen over the past 20 weeks after it hit the 1 million
mark of suspected cases. But now that's going to change again,
because Yemen is entering a new phase of rainy seasons. The country
had also had an outbreak of diphtheria, a disease that usually affects
children, and can be prevented with vaccines.

In addition to famine and disease, Yemen is also targeted by a
resilient so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). On
Saturday, two car bomb explosions killed at least six people and
wounded 43 others in the southern port city of Aden, which is the
stronghold of what's left of the Sunni government. ISIS claimed
credit for the bombings.

On the other hand, a high-level Saudi researcher says:

<QUOTE>"I find the English proverb “slow and steady” the best
way to describe the decisive course the war in Yemen is taking,
with the crisis coming to an end along with the restoration of
hope.

A continuous collapse of the Iran-backed Houthi militia is obvious
from the outcome of battles, with the advance of the national
armies supported by the coalition forces that uphold
legitimacy."<END QUOTE>

That would have to be considered the optimistic Saudi view of the war,
but this is not widely believed. Reuters and Bloomberg and Al Arabiya (Riyadh)

****
**** Saudi Arabia sacks its top tier of military commanders
****

In a series of late-night royal decrees, Saudi Arabia's King Salman
sacked the country's top military commanders and the headers of the
ground forces and air defenses.

It's believed that the firings are the work of the 32-year-old Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as "MBS", who is also the defense
minister, and who has forced rapid change in the kingdom, including
the arrests of dozens of high level government officials on charges of
corruption.

MBS is also believed to have been the instigator of the Yemen
war. The fact that the war did not end in a quick victory,
but instead appears to be an unending disaster, is being
blamed on MBS himself.

Saudi Arabia announced the military firings without providing
any reasons. However, it's believed that the firings are
related to the lack of success in the Yemen war.

Reportedly, these firing represent a generational change in the
leadership of the military, and that the older leaders were fired and
are being replaced by other military figures who are younger and who
are thought to be loyal to MBS. Saudi Press Agency and BBC and
Reuters and Bloomberg

Related Articles:

• Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden (29-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Saudi's young Crown Prince Salman forces rapid change among multiple crises (06-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Yemen war changes direction with collapse of Iran-backed Houthi coalition (03-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Generational history of Shia Houthis in Yemen (21-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia says it will 'end major combat operations' in Yemen (18-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Iran brags that Sanaa Yemen is the fourth Arab capital they control (24-Sep-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Houthis, Iran,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Egypt,
World Health Organization, WHO, cholera, diphtheria,
King Salman, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, MBS

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