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skipped an archetype like time before last?
#1
Hero archetype was skipped after the Civil War (or during? how is that said).  The next cycle was normal.  This one may be repeating the CW turning.  Many, MANY Americans were slaughtered in the Civil War and other factors as to why Hero was not manifested.  Could it be Vietnam decimated a whole generation of would-have-been heroes?  Rather, would they (had they lived) been the parents OF the Heroes had they returned home?  The facet of that generation which survived were not the most honorable people and as is known, were Boomers that were only in it for themselves. 

I am suggesting the possibility of a really long X generation that bled right into a pseudo Artist.  In fact, looking at the previous model without a Hero, it's possible the authors did not know what to make of it so they adjusted the brackets to omit the Hero simply because nothing in the past (or after) made sense in that context.  Meaning, they may have overlooked a "special-rule" archetype that fits between Nomad and Artist that is just marginally manifesting Hero.  Because, we have yet to experience any baby boom in America, even though the time is getting really short for that to happen if is going to happen.  Artists (according to the current model) are approaching full adulthood themselves.  Millennialls are not in a position to produce such a baby boom without their bracket being moved entirely.  The oldest of them being approx 40 and the youngest about 18.

Any answers welcome.  Please provide context.
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#2
This 4T isn’t gonna see good fertility rates. I suspect the next 1T will have higher birthrates but nowhere near the level of the post-WWII high given the societal structural changes we’ve experienced.
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#3
Yes, the Progressive generation might well be a special-rule archetype, just as the Gilded became (aging into a Civic-Nomad hybrid).

If I recall correctly, the Progressive would-have-been-heros/pseudo Artists were described as "hard Artists" in the paleo 4T site.

For a Dionysus cycle there may be three, perhaps four, different possibilities:

1. The would-be-heroes may become empowered by the 4T, as the Glorious generation in the colonies.

2. The 4T outcome is tragic rather than triumphant, triggering a Nomad revolt. The Gilded became a Nomad-Civic hybrid, while Progressives became pseudo-Artists/hard-Artists.

3. The 4T comes early, and the Nomads are pressed into the hero role. If the 4T goes well, this generation may become a Nomad-Civic hybrid.


In the case of number one, I believe that King Phillips War-a genocidal attack against the colonies-turned Glorious into war heroes

Number three was a British generation in the late 19th century. I don't know much about them, or the next generation. The subsequent 2T was unusually mild in its intensity, indeed, my impression was that is was milder than the Missionary Awakening in America. (But Winston Churchill was a Prophet from that generation). I recall a suggestion that prosperity helped to dampen the 2T.
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#4
This is speculation....

The 4T arrives about when one would expect, but is unusually mild.

The nomads remain nomads, instead of aging into a hybrid.

On the other hand, the heroes-to-be aren't presented with a challenge intense enough to empower them-they become pseudo-Artists/hard-Artists. Almost like a recessive Civic generation.

Suppose this scenario plays out during this 4T. During the subsequent 1T, Generation X acts like typical aging Nomads-like the Lost generation during the last 1T. Meanwhile, Millennials resemble Progressives much more than the Silent generation.

During the subsequent 2T, the Prophets don't really have an older generation to rebel against. Unlike the Missionaries rebelling against the Gilded, or Boomers rebelling against G.I.s. So this 2T is unusually mild in its intensity.
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#5
See my latest post on the Is the generational theory valid? thread for my response to this question.

http://generational-theory.com/forum/thr...l#pid42555
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#6
(04-18-2019, 07:26 PM)Mikebert Wrote: See my latest post on the Is the generational theory valid? thread for my response to this question.

http://generational-theory.com/forum/thr...l#pid42555

Hindsight.

I see it as, try to look at the moods.  The moods always make clearer the location in a bracket.  I cannot help looking at the MSD shooting and what happened after.  Compare to Columbine, same event.  The Hero exists, I don't know what bracket this is tho.  The MSD people said "how dare anyone kill these children?!"  While, with Columbine, it was a rancid, confused cult of The Matrix boys/men dressing up as Hollywood idols killing each other.  I don't feel like anyone really cared about the victims.  Clear shift from X to Mill.

So, those people are 20s now... they may even be cusp Artists.  Demanding Green New Deal, don't care who does it so long as it gets done.  Current president is their worst nightmare and definitely the scenario of a far-in 4th Turning (I think) when the text describes what happens right at the Turning..... the red-faced Boomers descend into madness and their leader makes one last half-cocked move to destroy Earth while quickly handing the mess over to the X ascendent with the Millennials waiting eagerly to move forward.

no?
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#7
I'd say the youngest Millennials are still only 13; the Artist archetype is a way off from adulthood.

What about Millennials disqualifies them from the Hero archetype? I think they are matching it. They still have time for a political movement; they won't likely get a war to fight in like the GIs had but that is because nuclear weapons have ended mass-scale conflict like the CW/WW era experienced.

I think maybe this Crisis doesn't feel Crisis-y enough but there are signs:

Growing populism/authoritarianism
Culture has become bland/predictable
Extreme factionalism - basically we are in a civil war, just not a shooting war
And the demographic bust, if not economic bust
Steve Barrera

[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure

Saecular Pages
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#8
Peter Zeihan (zeihan.com) has discussed the mood of the United States. If the United States is withdrawing into a new isolationism, than we may be spared a big war this time-simply by default. He does predict big wars in Europe, east Asia, and the Middle East. He has suggested that nukes may be used in these conflicts-though, if we keep out of them, not on us.
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#9
(04-19-2019, 06:20 AM)sbarrera Wrote: I'd say the youngest Millennials are still only 13; the Artist archetype is a way off from adulthood.

What about Millennials disqualifies them from the Hero archetype? I think they are matching it. They still have time for a political movement; they won't likely get a war to fight in like the GIs had but that is because nuclear weapons have ended mass-scale conflict like the CW/WW era experienced.

I think maybe this Crisis doesn't feel Crisis-y enough but there are signs:

Growing populism/authoritarianism
Culture has become bland/predictable
Extreme factionalism - basically we are in a civil war, just not a shooting war
And the demographic bust, if not economic bust

That's all of it really good insight. 

No one is talking about lack of war in that respect.  Many keep saying the big one is still coming.  I can't see it.  Millennials are getting too old to be the boots on ground for something like that.  Yes, to me the crisis does not feel crisis-y enough.  I'm always holding it to the standards of CW and WWII.. although, the economic aspect of the Turning has def happened with 2008 crash.  I look at that compared with 29 crash.. with a decade later to war.  Then, "winning" created baby boom. 

There is now scary stuff like demanding information be banned so that others will not encounter it.  This, instead of the individual avoiding said information themselves, they just want it removed in totality.  That always leads to authoritarianism.  That's why I'm surprised the current president is not leading this charge with young people in theory.  The bland and predictable, YESS.  Extreme Factionalism is here for sure.  All of this shows Hero is here.  I guess the location in bracket remains to be seen.

I keep saying if someone like Buttigieg were to somehow become a president, that would be a "hindsight" showing the exact location in bracket.  He's a true Mil and all-new kind of leader (gay, etc, we have never seen this) but for my part, it looks like the current president will probably remain for another 4.  In that time, I guess a war could happen, but sending young Artists into that instead of Mills does not fit the model.

Someone said there doesn't have to be a baby boom.  But does there not have to be an enormous rift concentrated in one or two things that are "global" in nature?  Every 4th Turning has had these.  I'm no expert past maybe late 19th century, but this location in the bracket seems to always bring almost total chaos to the largest amount of people.  Can it be called a real 4T if not?  With nothing to mirror the Civil War or WWII (or U.S. Revolution even), what really is this particular Turning anyway?

ie: this border thing is not what I would call a 4T Crisis.  Nothing occurring nationally or globally (except in whispers) seems to me as a thing that represents the magnitude of a true 4T right now.  Yes, we have endless infighting and political stalemate - nothing is getting done at all.  But that's been for most admins for a long time now.  Moving the swamp around with each election, never draining it.  Again, nothing tho likend to what I would consider a true "Crisis". 

Can anyone explain more  about the "skipped Hero" of the CW era?  It's one concept I have not really understood enough.  The archetype was "skipped" .. from that I interpreted Hero just never manifested and the bracket meant for that simply was Artists and everything began normally after the skip.  There was no dramatic bracket "shifting" to allot for the missing archetype ... no extended years or modified lengths.  Just, as if it just never happened.  I guess I don't understand, especially since this research is based on the model having always 4 continually repeating archetypes and 4 continually repeating Turnings that all sort of fit together. 

So, based on that ^^ was a Turning also skipped?  Wouldn't the entire model be thrown off if skipped an archetype but Turnings continued as normal?
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#10
Oh and for the age of these people, I try to consider the bleed-over aspect. Though the Mill bracket is now said to be end at 2005, we know the final approx 5 years of any archetype is more truly just an early rep of the next archetype coming. The 13yo Mills right now are probably more Artist than Mill. Same with the reverse how young Artists are probably more Mills than true Artists. The best indication of a sub group is probably the very middle of the bracket. Such as, true Mills are most-likely born in about 1993. Making them 25 or so. That means they are not right out of the gate should some war happen, where it would fall exclusively to them to fight. They would be already finished with school, educated and trying to establish in work fields (over the next 6 years since no war is happening now like a 4T war). I see the model as having said war erupts and then Mills going "willingly, without questions" to do the bidding of the Prophet enacting said war based on ideology.

Consider also, the Nomad is approaching retirement age in that same period while they are supposed to be the ones taking up for the mad Prophets when they fall away from influence. Yes, this is being quite held up by ancient Boomers clinging to voting and staying in office literally until their coffins arrive. Was there not some type of incentive to get the last Heroes out of public life or the workforce at their previous retirement age? Making way for the new people who needed to fill those positions? Maybe I'm confused.

Does anyone see some incentive or government-led initiative that basically says "for the good of all, we have to incentivise Boomers out of the workforce to make room for younger people". With life spans increasing, do we really want 90yo politicians in office? Running for office in their 80s? I don't.
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#11
(04-19-2019, 11:40 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Peter Zeihan (zeihan.com) has discussed the mood of the United States.  If the United States is withdrawing into a new isolationism, than we may be spared a big war this time-simply by default.  He does predict big wars in Europe, east Asia, and the Middle East.  He has suggested that nukes may be used in these conflicts-though, if we keep out of them, not on us.

This is good too.  Isolation as avoidance of traditional 4T war(s).  Does that mean if we do not experience a true 4T we lose?  Lose, as in, we do not experience the full force of the 4T?  4Ts do have their purpose, to reset and solve many issues previously impossible due to rancid politics.  Can we have a strong re-emergence on the U.S. without the consequences of a big war?  Do our psyches need that to say "enough is enough, we are fixing this shit" when if not "motivated" as such, the BS could drag on and on?

Can a true 4T occur in this scenario?  For me, it kind of meant the bigger the trauma of a 4T the bigger the reward later in "reconstruction" of the old order... people are highly motivated to change things and do anything necessary to do so.  Without that "trauma" there may be mass complacency.  The Baby Boom after WWII I believe was a reaction not just to WWII but also WWI.  People absolutely did not want to be involved in another war after the first one.  They saw the horrors and wanted no parts of it.  So, when we got involved and "triumphed" over those enemies, I think people were just ready to say "ok, no more, let's settle down and enjoy the fruits".  To me, that may be part of why there was so much substantial interior change in the U.S. and why (called at the time "radical") ideas were passable... think of Social Security that was called "socialism" yet, for all its flaws has become a major staple of our civilization now. 

Can such "radical" ideas prevail if the people are not or have not been faced with "big trauma" on the other side?  What motivation is there to enact sweeping transformations if the general mood has not absolutely reached the peak of frustration?  What do people have to get united about in this Turning that allows for such tansformation? To me, that's all part of the ebb and flow of these cycles.
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#12
We are 1850s redux. The authors thought that was a 3T too and gave the 4T only 5 years. But it was the 4T, and so it today. That explains everything and no revision is needed.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#13
(04-19-2019, 06:20 AM)sbarrera Wrote: I'd say the youngest Millennials are still only 13; the Artist archetype is a way off from adulthood.

What about Millennials disqualifies them from the Hero archetype? I think they are matching it. They still have time for a political movement; they won't likely get a war to fight in like the GIs had but that is because nuclear weapons have ended mass-scale conflict like the CW/WW era experienced.

I think maybe this Crisis doesn't feel Crisis-y enough but there are signs:

Growing populism/authoritarianism
Culture has become bland/predictable
Extreme factionalism - basically we are in a civil war, just not a shooting war
And the demographic bust, if not economic bust

People looking for old music and underground music seems different than the last 4T. I do this myself. I'm born in 1986 but am unaware of the vast majority of songs in this decade. I have almost no idea at all. I don't think there is a one true pop culture. I see this as the ultimate age of the niche. Civics are supposed to be mainstream in culture but what I see happening is most people hate the pop charts so they look for music on their own and just ignore the pop culture spewed by the mass media. People around my age are doing this a lot. The current mass produced culture seems irrelevant today when everyone just goes into their niche culture and searches for everything. This is the opposite of the big monoculture that's supposed to happen.
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#14
(04-19-2019, 09:57 PM)AspieMillennial Wrote:
(04-19-2019, 06:20 AM)sbarrera Wrote: I'd say the youngest Millennials are still only 13; the Artist archetype is a way off from adulthood.

What about Millennials disqualifies them from the Hero archetype? I think they are matching it. They still have time for a political movement; they won't likely get a war to fight in like the GIs had but that is because nuclear weapons have ended mass-scale conflict like the CW/WW era experienced.

I think maybe this Crisis doesn't feel Crisis-y enough but there are signs:

Growing populism/authoritarianism
Culture has become bland/predictable
Extreme factionalism - basically we are in a civil war, just not a shooting war
And the demographic bust, if not economic bust

People looking for old music and underground music seems different than the last 4T. I do this myself. I'm born in 1986 but am unaware of the vast majority of songs in this decade. I have almost no idea at all. I don't think there is a one true pop culture. I see this as the ultimate age of the niche. Civics are supposed to be mainstream in culture but what I see happening is most people hate the pop charts so they look for music on their own and just ignore the pop culture spewed by the mass media. People around my age are doing this a lot. The current mass produced culture seems irrelevant today when everyone just goes into their niche culture and searches for everything. This is the opposite of the big monoculture that's supposed to happen.

I gave up on popular music when disco (Yuck! -- and that ex-poses my age) was the fad. Later pop music was undeniably by or for Generation X, which I am not. I found my way to classical music to which I listen almost exclusively now. I love counterpoint and the sonata form.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#15
If I recall correctly, somebody once tried to segment the Progressives into an early Civic grouping, and a later Artist grouping.

As for Generation X, I believe that it is now too late to press them into a Hero role like that British generation-Xers have been getting too old to play young adult Heroes.
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#16
I recall making a distinction between Unifying 4Ts, and Fracturing 4Ts. The USA had a unifying experience during WWII, and obviously a fracturing experience during the Civil War. England had a Unifying experience with the Spanish Armada, and a Fracturing experience with the War of the Roses.

So the USA is now experiencing a Fracturing period, but so far, an unusually mild period compared to most 4Ts.
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#17
My speculations regarding generations of the next 1T:

The few remaining Silents are ancient.

Boomers--elderly Woodstock Wave begins to rapidly disappear, later followed by the rapid disappearance of Jonesers.

Aging Xers presiding over the show through most of the turning. They behave like Mature Nomads.

Midlife Millenials have turned into pseudo-artists/hard-artists/recessive-Civics/whatever-you-want-to-call-them.

Pseudo-artists bleed into younger true artists.

Proto-prophets in childhood. Will likely become Apollo type prophets with the next 2T.
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#18
Off the top of my head-if I recall correctly-the Progressives were quite busy during the Gilded Age. They were founding institutes that somewhat relieved the sterility of the spiritually and culturally stale period. So how would the Millenials act if they turning into pseudo-artists?
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#19
Quoting from a pbrower post to Current Anomaly: Five Generations Alive. Note the letter designations for generational archetypes: I = Idealist, R = Reactive, C = Civic, and A = Adaptive.

"...the Progressive generation, which had initially been brought up with many Civic characteristics, found its proclivities blunted as the Gilded took on the Civic role. The Progressive Generation took on an Adaptive character."

The generations as they are described after the Civil War:

"Transcendental (I ousted, and having taken on some R traits)

"Gilded (C in practice but with some residual R traits)

"Progressive (A in practice but with some residual C traits)

"Missionary (I, with little ambiguity)"
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#20
(04-20-2019, 10:28 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: My speculations regarding  generations of the next 1T:

The few remaining Silents are ancient.

Boomers--elderly Woodstock Wave begins to rapidly disappear, later followed by the rapid disappearance of Jonesers.  

Aging Xers presiding over the show through most of the turning.  They behave like Mature Nomads.

Midlife Millenials have turned into pseudo-artists/hard-artists/recessive-Civics/whatever-you-want-to-call-them.

Pseudo-artists bleed into younger true artists.

Proto-prophets in childhood.  Will likely become Apollo type prophets with the next 2T.

That is what I expect. The likes of Bob Dole, Doris Day, Betty White, George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, and Jimmy Carter will be gone. The first wave of Silent are largely gone, with a comparatively few remaining ones of prominence (Elizabeth II, most obviously, but also Dick Van Dyke, Walter Mondale, Eva Marie Saint, Whitey Ford, Bernard Haitink) not likely to get past the early-centenarian stage no matter what they do. I remember when WWII vets were commonplace, and when there were people with memories of Civil War veterans. It won't be long before geezers like I (I am not one yet, but I am close -- and I am really old-fashioned in culture!) are the remaining conduit for memories of WWII vets. The 1946-born Presidents will be seen on the whole as disappointments, either for not reshaping society as they promised (Clinton) or for being disasters (Dubya and especially Trump).

So far I expect late-wave Boomers to be passed over in the Presidency. This could ensure that America lacks a leader with the principled vision that one sees in a Lincoln, FDR, or Churchill. Such might be  exactly what we need following Donald Trump. This said, the "mature reactive" is a good model of a leader, as shown by the last three. Obama may have been young for the role, but he reminds me of a sixty-something Lost. No drama, unimaginative on stretching moral values, generally relying on pragmatism... I have compared Obama to Eisenhower several times despite the obvious differences. If we can't have another Lincoln this time, then we can have another Obama with an America more patient with needful change than it has been.

I don't see heroism of the storm-the-beaches GI generation that the Millennial Generation will exploit, but as with the GI generation I expect to see them do well at everything except moralizing and moral judgment and with literary achievement. (Have you read any good GI poetry lately -- or even a few decades ago? There's a good reason for that). Many will start small businesses that fill local niches as the bureaucratic behemoths go under; many will be fine actors and scriptwriters. Speaking of which, has there been a better time for American and British cinema since the Golden Age of American cinema and its miraculous year of 1939? The eighty-year rule comes into play. I used to disparage movies rich in special effects and poor in script -- but now there are the products of Marvel that actually have a worthy script for the visual effects... Millennial politics are looking much like GI politics in the 1930s in orientation. I expect Millennial young adults to find ways to get around the financially-ruinous rents and huge student-debt payments that young adults pay if they are in certain activities, like high technology or creative activities. We are going to see more telecommuting, and much one can do in a high-cost place like New York City one can do in a low-cost place like Scranton or Hartford. This may lead to less regional poverty and revitalize such cities as Cleveland, Detroit, and even St. Louis.

I can imagine Americans of all generations recognizing D-E-B-T as an even nastier word than F-*-*-K. In practice, debtors are much less sympathetic to plutocratic government than are creditors, the latter seeing debt as a form of bondage useful for exploiting people. People may prefer sweat equity to a bank loan unless for an appreciating asset.

But back to the Millennial generation. Preventing an apocalyptic war is at least as heroic as winning one. Much will depend upon restoring democratic norms in America even if such implies compromising with economic elites willing to make sacrifices only of others. If a cost of freedom is that people can inherit the medical debt of deceased parents even if they inherited no other assets, then such might be necessary.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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