Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 03-Jan-2020 World View: Personality Cult

(01-03-2020, 08:10 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > We don't need any martyrs on the Other Side. Trump already has his
> personality cut fully intact. How long will it last? If we are
> fortunate it will last about as long as that of Francisco Franco
> after his death. That one dissipated quickly.

I assume that by his "personality cult" you're referring to the 63
million smelly Trump supporters that you loathed and despised for
years as the "Tea Party."

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 4-Jan-20 World View -- Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination
  
• Iran's disastrous miscalculation after 40 years of war
  
• US airstrike kills IRGC leader Soleimani
  
• Iran plans for retaliation
  
• Threats of war between Iran and America
  
• Some known unknowns
  
• The future of Iran
  
• Update
  

****
**** Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination
****


Gen. Qassim Soleimani (when he was alive) (AP)

On Friday, BBC reporter Rebecca Kesby interviewed Ghanbar Naderi,
political editor for Tehran-based Kayhan International newspaper.
During the course of the interview, the following exchange occurred:

<QUOTE>Rebecca Kesby: "You say this is uncharted territory.
But surely the Iranian authorities would have been prepared for
this. He [Qassim Soleimani] must have known himself that he was a
target."

Ghanbar Naderi: "Rebecca, nobody took president Trump seriously.
They never thought that when he said he threatened Iran he was
going to make good on his threatened promises, but that's exactly
what he did. And they were all caught off guard. They never
expected General Soleimani to be assassinated in
Iraq."<END QUOTE>

In my previous article, I included a narrative of Iran's actions
leading up to Iran's attack on the US embassy in Baghdad. ( "1-Jan-20 World View -- US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters"
)

As I explained in that article, this was right out of Iran's playbook,
ever since the 1979 Islamic revolution civil war, in which they were
propelled to success by the "American Hostage Crisis," taking 52
American diplomats hostage for 444 days. Since then, the hardline
government in Iran has been trying to duplicate that success although,
as I've explained many, many times over the years, what works in a
generational Crisis era in 1979 will not work in a generational
Awakening era today.

Iran's government is in serious trouble. The economy is crippled, and
most young Iranians blame that on the foreign military adventures by
the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), headed by General Qassim
Soleimani. There have been months of massive anti-Iran riots and
demonstrations in both Iraq and Iran, and in Iran, Soleimani has
overseen the torture, rape, jailing and slaughter of thousands of
peaceful anti-government protesters in Iran. So the takeover of the
Baghdad embassy was a desperate attempt to repeat the 1979 success,
and unite the country against America.

But the takeover was a flop from the start. Some fires were set and
some property was damaged, but it fizzled quickly, and within 24 hours
the Iraqi armed forces were guarding the US embassy from the
Iran-backed attackers. In my last article, I said that this would be
the most likely outcome, during a generational Awakening era.

****
**** Iran's disastrous miscalculation after 40 years of war
****

So Iran's entire US Embassy attack didn't last 444 days, but was a
failure and a flop within 24 hours.

But it quickly got a lot worse, because Iran made a disastrous
miscalculation. As was revealed by the BBC interview with Ghanbar
Naderi quoted above, and by other sources as well, the Iranians never
took Trump seriously and never believed he would respond and kill
Soleimani.

Iran had good reason to believe that Trump would not respond. For 40
years, Iran has been conducting asymmetic warfar against the US and
Israel, using its proxies, like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, and
its allies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, to attack America and its
allies with impunity, while claiming deniability.

Here's a list of some of the most recent attacks in the just the last
few months:

• Shooting down a US drone with a surface-to-air missile over
  the Strait of Hormuz in June.
  
• Multiple attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of
  Oman
  
• Attacking Aramco oil refineries in Saudi Arabia
  
• Months of artillery attacks on American bases in Iraq, finally
  killing an American on Friday.
  
• Attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad. This is generally considered
  to be an act of war.

In each case the Iranians were warned not to repeat these actions, but
the warnings were never followed up with actions, and the Iranians
came to believe that they could continue such attacks with impunity,
and Trump would never respond. As Ghanbar Naderi said, "Nobody took
president Trump seriously."

****
**** US airstrike kills IRGC leader Soleimani
****

Gen. Qassim Soleimani, Iran's most important military figure, and head
of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was killed by an
American airstrike at Baghdad’s international airport on Tuesday.

The strike also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a top Iraqi military
figure, the deputy commander of Iran-backed militias known as the
Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq.

So the Iranians had every reason to believe that the attack on the US
Embassy would be met with words and no action. This turned out to be
a major miscalculation.

Not only was Soleimani killed, but in fact the entire operation has
failed in that it did nothing to unite people the way the Iranian
Hostage Crisis did in 1979. In Iraq, the anti-Iran protesters are
celebrating and cheering the killing of Soleimani.

In Iran, the feelings are mixed. Soleimani was a hero of the
Iran/Iraq war, which killed 1.5 million people, and Soleimani was
responsible for killing many Iraqis. Like any war hero, Soleimani is
revered by Iranians who lived through that war. But Soleimani has
also been responsible for the torture, rape, jailing and slaughter of
thousands of peaceful anti-government protesters over the years, and
those victims are cheering his death.

So it's hard to see this as anything but a disaster for the Iranians.
It resulted in the death of a top general, and did not achieve its
objective.

However, the United States has gained quite a bit, and not just from
the death of Soleimani. Donald Trump has proven (again) that he's
willing to back up his words with actions, something that's almost
unheard of from politicians, and that's a message that will be heard
'round the world, especially in North Korea and China.

****
**** Iran plans for retaliation
****

Pundits and analysts are saying that Iran must now retaliate, and
everyone is wondering how they will do that.

They could repeat some of the actions that I listed above -- attacking
oil tankers, launching artillery attacks, etc. -- but that would be
more of the same, and would not really impress anyone.

The speculation is that Iran will be planning something spectacular --
perhaps blowing up an American embassy or business or something in
some other country, or a European target in Europe.

One analyst said that Iran would have to walk a very difficult line in
such an action. It would have to be large enough to count as
retaliation, but not so large that it would provoke a heavy military
response by the United States, perhaps destroying Iran's oil fields.

One other problem for Iran is that various officials in other
countries -- Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon -- are expressing the hope
that Iran will not retaliate on the US in their countries, and any
Iran attack on America in one of their countries would violate that
country's sovereignty.

Some speculation is that Hezbollah will conduct some terrorist attack
against America and Israel. Hezbollah is already poor, because of the
anti-Iran sanctions, and crippled from having fought for years in
Syria. At any rate, America and Israel claim that they are always
ready for a Hezbollah terrorist attack.

Another speculation is an Iranian cyber attack. The US is under
constant cyber attacks from numerous countries, so it's hard to see
how this would be different.

****
**** Threats of war between Iran and America
****

There will NOT be a war between American and Iran.

This is despite the fact that the media have been filled with screams
by hysterical, apoplectic left-wing politicians who claim that we'll
be at war by Monday. Any clash would fizzle quickly. Some have said
that Trump will be involved in something worse than the Vietnam war
and it would last for years. Such is the idiocy of the left. They
should spend more time fantasizing about girls, rather than wars.

Almost all reporters and politicians making such claims are so
ignorant that they couldn't find Iran on a map, and certainly know
nothing about Iran's history.

As I described in my book on Iran, Iran's 1979 civil war was triggered
generationally by the 1890 Tobacco Revolt, the 1905-09 Constitutional
Revolution, and the 1963 White Revolution in which Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini was exiled. During all this time, the UK, Russia and later
America were bogeymen that various Iranian politicians blamed for
their own failures.

As I described in my book on Iran, Iran suffered major humiliating
defeats in nationalistic border wars during the 1800s. As a result,
Iran takes pride in saying that it no longer invades anyone, and
points to the Iran/Iraq war as a case where it was invaded.

However, under the insanity of the Islamic republic, Iran now serves
its nationalistic drives not by invading anyone, but by funding other
groups to conduct proxy wars, as previously described.

The problem is that, just as the 1800s border wars failed
spectacularly, the new proxy war strategy is also failing
spectacularly. Instead of getting soldiers killed in foreign wars,
Iran is spending huge amounts of money to pay other groups to get
their soldiers killed in proxy wars.

This has caused enormous economic problems in Iran, and a lot of
people are furious at wasting money on the foreign proxy wars. But
Iran's main problem is that the older generations have a hate-America
foreign policy, while the younger generations love the West and
America, and the size of the younger generations is growing every day.

Iran's last generational crisis war was the 1979 Islamic Revolution
civil war, combined with the 1980s Iran/Iraq war, and now the hardline
geezers are paying the price for their democide policies following
both those wars. Both Iran and Iraq are close to Awakening era climax
events, and looks like the most likely result will be for Iraq to
eject Iran, and for Iran to eject the hardline geezers. But this is
speculation, and it remains to be seen.

However, one thing is certain: Iran cannot now abandon its
centuries-old policy of avoiding foreign wars and sponsoring proxy
wars.

****
**** Some known unknowns
****

During the Iraq war, Donald Rumsfeld liked to say that "unknowns" were
broken up into two groups -- "known unknowns," where you know that you
don't know something, and "unknown unknowns," where you don't have any
clue at all.

So it's worth pointing out that there are some known unknowns in the
current situation that will reveal themselves in the next few days,
and readers may wish to watch for them.

• There have been several reports that on Thursday or Friday,
  the US sent a note to Iran through the Swiss embassy, and that Iran
  has replied. We'd all love to know what was in the note.
  
  
• On Sunday, the Iraq parliament will take a vote on expelling all
  American soldiers from Iraq. America is in Iraq at the invitation of
  Iraq, to aid and support the Iraqi security forces as they search for
  and clear ISIS sleeper cells hiding in the deserts. Iraq got burned
  when America left Iraq in 2011, in that ISIS was in control of 2/3 of
  the country by 2014, so the Iraqis don't want to go through that
  again. However, the biggest bloc in Iraq's parliament is the pro-Iran
  bloc, the vote on Sunday will be an interesting test.
  
  
• Next week, the Trump administration is going to give a briefing to
  the entire Senate on the Iranian threats that led to the assassination
  of Soleimani. There are sure to be leaks, and those should be
  interesting.

Of course, the biggest unknown is how Iran is going to retaliate. And
that will probably remain unknown until it happens.

****
**** The future of Iran
****

Iran's future is dominated by the fact that the old hardline geezer
survivors of the 1979 civil war are dying off, and the younger
generations are pro-American and pro-Western.

At some point, there will be some kind of "regime change," a
generational Awakening climax where the younger generation takes
control of the government. However, this "regime change" cannot be
rushed by Trump or any outside. It totally depends on internal
generational forces.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is
an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies,"
the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war
between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other.

The exact scenario that will lead to this world war, but it's always
possible that the current crisis will turn out to be a step on the
way.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/

****
**** Update
****

As I'm writing this late on Friday evening ET, there are reports over
airstrikes on a convoy in northern Baghdad. The reports are confusing
since some reports indicate that it isn't an American operation.

Sources:

Note: The following articles are useful for facts, but they're all
pretty idiotic as far as analysis is considered, since they're almost
all predicting a war, which won't happen for the reasons that I've
given. Most of the analysis is written by people knowing less than
nothing about the history of Iran, and probably couldn't find Iran on
a map. In other words, most (though not all) of these articles are
written by idiots.

Note: Michael O'Hanlon, Brookings Institute, is referenced in the
Fox News article below. O'Hanlon is the only analyst that I know of
in Washington who knows what he's talking about, and this has been my
opinion for over a decade. He's sometimes anti-Trump or pro-Trump,
but he always talks sense -- which no one else does, ever.

• Qassim Soleimani / Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis / Iran’s Gen. Soleimani killed in airstrike at Baghdad airport (AP, 2-Jan-2020)
  
• Iran vows revenge after U.S. drone strike kills elite force commander (Washington Post, 3-Jan-2020)
  
• Trump's assassination of Soleimani: Five things to know (Al Jazeera, 3-Jan-2020)
  
• Bloomberg blasts Sanders' 'outrageous' claim that Soleimani strike was an 'assassination' (FoxNews, 3-Jan-2020)
  
• The US Recently Made a Smart Move Toward Iran. Killing Soleimani Wasn’t It (Defense One, 3-Jan-2020)
  
• The Soleimani assassination was short-sighted for US strategy and destabilizing for Iraq and the region (The Hill, 3-Jan-2020)
  
• Iran / The assassination of Qasem Soleimani: Likely consequences (Atlantic Council, 3-Jan-2020)
  
• How will Iran retaliate for the assassination of Qasem Soleimani? (Jerusalem Post, 3-Jan-2020)
  
• The Soleimani Assassination Is America’s Most Consequential Strike This Century (The Atlantic, 3-Jan-2020)
  
• Was it legal for Donald Trump to order the killing of a top Iranian general? (NBC News, 3-Jan-2020)
  
• Airstrikes targeting Iraqi militia reported north of Baghdad – live (Guardian, London, 3-Jan-2020)

Related Articles:

• US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters (01-Jan-2020)
  
  
• Spiraling bloodbath in Iraq, as anti-Iran and anti-government riots spread (29-Nov-2019)
  
  
• Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq (03-Nov-2019)
  
  
• Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war (09-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Brief generational history of Iran and Saudi Arabia (21-May-2017)
  
  
• Brookings Institution does a full reversal on Iraq war (01-Jul-2009)
  
  
• Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans (14-Jan-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Iraq, Qassim Soleiman
Rebecca Kesby, Ghanbar Naderi, Kayhan International,
Islamic revolution, Iran/Iraq war, Iranian Hostage Crisis,
Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Saudi Arabia, Aramco, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hamas, Israel

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
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E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
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[Warren Dew]

(01-03-2020, 11:37 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: As I'm writing this late on Friday evening ET, there are reports over
airstrikes on a convoy in northern Baghdad.  The reports are confusing
since some reports indicate that it isn't an American operation.

The attack was on a PMF (pro-Iran) convoy.  The US has denied participation.  The accounts I saw said the Iraqi army had denied that it happened at all.  Normally I would assume an opportunistic air strike by Israel, but I wonder in this case if the Iraqi army took an opportunistic whack at a competing militia.

[pbrower2a]

(01-03-2020, 10:12 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 03-Jan-2020 World View: Personality Cult

(01-03-2020, 08:10 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   We don't need any martyrs on the Other Side. Trump already has his
>   personality cut fully intact. How long will it last? If we are
>   fortunate it will last about as long as that of Francisco Franco
>   after his death. That one dissipated quickly.  

I assume that by his "personality cult" you're referring to the 63
million smelly Trump supporters that you loathed and despised for
years as the "Tea Party."

I saw the warning signs. I could see through him for his extreme narcissism, if not sociopathy. (Narcissists elevat3e themselves yet discount everyone else; sociopaths are schemers; psychopaths are predators).

In any event, people are catching on. Maybe not the Tea Party types, but certainly the younger people entering the electorate as the Tea Party (largely people over 55) dies off a little very year. 

Hitler, Stalin, Mao, and Satan Hussein were highly effective in maintaining their personality cults. Truth has nothing to do with it.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 05-Jan-2020 World View: Tea Party = Nazi Personality Cult

(01-05-2020, 02:44 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I saw the warning signs. I could see through him for his extreme
> narcissism, if not sociopathy. (Narcissists elevat3e themselves
> yet discount everyone else; sociopaths are schemers; psychopaths
> are predators).

> In any event, people are catching on. Maybe not the Tea Party
> types, but certainly the younger people entering the electorate as
> the Tea Party (largely people over 55) dies off a little very
> year.

> Hitler, Stalin, Mao, and Satan Hussein were highly effective in
> maintaining their personality cults. Truth has nothing to do with
> it.

Each time you write something about this, it's dumber and dumber. You
should quit before you get further behind.

So you think that Trump is the same as Hitler, Stalin, Mao and
Hussein, and you think that the 63 million smelly Tea Partiers / Trump
supporters that you've loathed and despised for many years are the
same as a Nazi personality cult. You've crossed the line from total
ignorance to total idiocy.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 05-Jan-2020 World View: Iraq 'votes' for US withdrawal

Iraq's parliament has voted to "call for" the withdrawal of US troops.
But it's non-binding, and the session was boycotted by the Sunni and
Kurdish groups, so only the Iran-backed MPs voted for it. It's
reported that these MPs are under enormous pressure from Iran.

Opposition figures in Iraq say that Iraq will no longer be able to
defend itself without the support of American troops and point to the
fact that ISIS took over 2/3 of the country the last time that the US
withdrew. Most Iraqis do not trust Iran-backed People's Mobilization
Forces (PMFs) to protect Iraq, and many consider the PMFs to be worse
than ISIS. Even those who dislike America's assassination of
Soleimani still trust America far more than they trust the PMFs.

Protesters in the Iraqi streets have been calling for Iran to
withdraw.

Iraq's government is in shambles, with the prime minister having had
to resign because of the recent massive anti-Iran anti-government
protests in the streets. The acting PM cannot do much until there's a
new election.

Iran's puppet Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah gave the usual
speech on Sunday about how horrible Americans are, but did not go
farther to say that Hezbollah would participate in the retaliation
against America. Al-Jazeera says that this omission is a surprise,
but it's happening because Lebanon's government is itself in shambles,
because of recent massive anti-government protests, and they don't
want Lebanon to be dragged into the clash between US and Iran.

In Washington, the hysterics continue. The idiots are no longer
predicting war by Monday, so the idiots have already been forced to
back down from that certain prediction. Now they're just saying that
killing Soleimani will turn out to be the greatest foreign policy
blunder in the history of the country, or possibly the world.

The basics that I've described in my last two articles have not
changed, in terms of generational attitudes following from the
extremely bloody Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, which killed 1.5 million
people. None of the idiots that you hear on TV take into account
Iran's history, Iraq's history, or that many Iranians hate Iraqis, and
that many Iraqis hate Iranians, after the atrocities they perpetrated
on each other in the 1980s.

As usual, if you want to believe stupid things, then listen to the
idiots in Washington. If you want to know what's actually going on in
the world, then follow the Generational Dynamics analyses that I've
been posting.

[pbrower2a]

(01-05-2020, 09:52 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 05-Jan-2020 World View: Tea Party = Nazi Personality Cult

(01-05-2020, 02:44 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   I saw the warning signs. I could see through him for his extreme
>   narcissism, if not sociopathy. (Narcissists elevate themselves
>   yet discount everyone else; sociopaths are schemers; psychopaths
>   are predators).

>   In any event, people are catching on. Maybe not the Tea Party
>   types, but certainly the younger people entering the electorate as
>   the Tea Party (largely people over 55) dies off a little very
>   year.

>   Hitler, Stalin, Mao, and Satan Hussein were highly effective in
>   maintaining their personality cults. Truth has nothing to do with
>   it.  

Each time you write something about this, it's dumber and dumber.  You
should quit before you get further behind.

So you think that Trump is the same as Hitler, Stalin, Mao and
Hussein, and you think that the 63 million smelly Tea Partiers / Trump
supporters that you've loathed and despised for many years are the
same as a Nazi personality cult.  You've crossed the line from total
ignorance to total idiocy.

No. But even baby steps in the direction of those monsters are to be taken with great care, if at all. I've taken up painting, which Hitler did; I have toyed with linguistics, as Stalin did. Such is trivial. If you saw your kid showing signs of delinquent behavior, then would you not try to stop it? Trump is political delinquency, and delinquency of any kind is best stopped early.

Start with demagogy. It is bad enough to end up with a politician with which one has nothing to offer. Sure, Trump offends my sensibilities with his bigotry, his sexism, and his contempt for anyone with a hardship in his past (whether poverty, a handicap, or having been incarcerated by the Commies in North Vietnam). A politician who makes contradictory promises and appeals to different groups is either a fool or a liar. Consider this: the FBI, which does not get to beat confessions out of unfortunate people as did the Gestapo or the KGB, has a more effective technique for finding perpetrators. It seeks as many people imaginably involved and asks people questions about the case. Innocent people will tell the truth, even embarrassing revelations (such as at one time "I am gay", or more apropos, "I cheated on my spouse"), to clear themselves. Innocent people might give incriminating information on the perpetrator without knowing that they have done so. Guilty people lie simply to maintain the mask of innocence. Their lies ultimately trap them, or their slow response to such a question as "On October 22, 2013, did you rob the Norwest Bank* in Kokomo, Indiana?" (I could answer that one in the negative without  hesitation because I have never robbed a bank, but a serial bank robber would have to hesitate to think about whether he did. Maybe he was instead robbing a Norwest Bank* in Keokuk, Iowa that day).  As J. Edgar Hoover said, every crook that he ever encountered was one thing -- a liar. The FBI technique might not be so effective where something like Article 58 of the Soviet Criminal Code (that practically defines everyone as a criminal) is in operation. 

Trump is a liar -- someone who sees the only reality as what serves his ego or his economic interests at the time. He has been involved with organized crime. He was a good friend of the late Jeffrey Epstein, once saying of him that "he likes his girls young". He is a horrible person. As for the Tea Party people most are good except for their politics. They are often the salt-of-the-earth types, the people who feed relatives whose cupboards are getting bare, who meet a layaway payment coming due when a relative is a bit behind in paying off a bicycle, people who tithe to their churches, people who prepare items for family reunions and fundraisers for children with incurable diseases, people who go to a Wednesday evening prayer meeting when that conflicts with Game 7 of the World Series... above all they are the people who do the dirty, nasty jobs that people with degrees from renowned colleges and universities would never think of doing. Trump has told many people what they want to hear, which is that other people don't share their values while fleecing them.  

Trump is the apotheosis of the Tea Party. I recognize that you are no liberal, but offending the sensibilities of a majority of the people is bad politics. The Tea Party is the denunciation of intellectual modernity, including science. Such ravages creativity and intellectual discussion. Have you ever talked to these people? You are in Boston, itself a bubble; I live in the rural Midwest, and I see huge Trump banners under US flags. I never saw anything like that with Dubya or Reagan. If conservative values on economics are right, then they need a more honest vehicle than that pathological, demagogic liar. 

*defunct entity -- I do not give free advertising.

[Warren Dew]

(01-05-2020, 01:37 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: As usual, if you want to believe stupid things, then listen to the
idiots in Washington.  If you want to know what's actually going on in
the world, then follow the Generational Dynamics analyses that I've
been posting.

I wonder if there's anyone in the Pentagon who is familiar with generational theory.  Certainly an understanding that Iran is in a generational Awakening would have helped to make the decision that killing Soleimani had limited downside risk.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 06-Jan-2020 World View: The Iran hysteria

The hysteria continues. I've just heard a lengthy report on MS-NBC
from Richard Engel, NBC News, Chief Foreign Correspondent. He says
that he's never seen anything like these crowds. He's says they're
all crying. He says that the assassination of Soleimani has
spectacularly backfired on Trump. He said that two months ago, Iran's
government was in crisis because the streets were crowded with
anti-government protesters, and now the assassination has united "all
factions" of Iran's government into anti-Trump protests. Now there
are massive shows of support not only for the government but also for
the IRGC.

Engel: "This is a seminal moment. It shows that all people -- young
people, old people -- all are now behind their government in a way
that they were not just a few weeks ago."

You would think that Richard Engel, NBC News Chief Foreign
Correspondent, wouldn't be such an idiot, wouldn't you? According to
Engel, all those young people who have been protesting for years about
the poverty, corruption and incompetence of Iran's government have
suddenly changed their minds, and now they ignore the government,
despite the poverty, corruption and incompetence.

In just the last couple of months, Soleimani oversaw the brutal
torture, rape, jailing and murder of thousands of peaceful mostly
young anti-government protesters, and it never occurs to Engel and the
other idiots that the reason that they're all crying is because
they've been ordered to go out into the streets and cry, and may even
have been given some financial incentive to do so, as other reports
have suggested.

I have an interesting speculation about this situation. A lot of the
young people in the streets now weeping over the death of Soleimani
are just happy to be out in the streets at all, without being tortured
or killed by the IRGC. The speculation is that they see this as an
opportunity to make to turn these street demonstrations around into
anti-government protests as soon as they can when the current fervor
ends. The IRGC would be able to torture and kill them because these
anti-government protests would be in the international spotlight.
That's just speculation.

On the other hand, we're all shocked that the NY Times lead opinion
writer, Thomas Friedman, apparently supports the assassination:

Quote: "Thomas L. Friedman - Trump Kills Iran’s Most
Overrated Warrior

One day they may name a street after President Trump in
Tehran. Why? Because Trump just ordered the assassination of
possibly the dumbest man in Iran and the most overrated strategist
in the Middle East: Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/opini...imani.html

Friedman goes on to explain why Soleimani was such a disaster.

Friedman actually does know a great deal about Iran and the Mideast.
In my book on Iran, I quoted at length some of the things that
Friedman wrote in 2002, including the following:

Quote: "Iran has the bomb. ... No, no not that bomb. This
bomb is hiding in plain sight -- in high schools, universities and
coffee houses. It is a bomb that is ticking away under Iranian
society, and over the next decade it will explode in ways that
will change the face of this Islamic Republic. It's called here,
for short, ''The Third Generation.'' ...

The third generation are those Iranians from 16 to 30 who have
come of age entirely under Islamic rule. They never knew the
Shah's despotism. They have known only the ayatollahs'. There are
now 18 million of them -- roughly a third of Iran's population --
and they include 2 million university students and 4 million
recent university grads. ...

Quick quiz: Which Muslim Middle East country held spontaneous
candlelight vigils in sympathy with Americans after Sept. 11?
Kuwait? No. Saudi Arabia? No. Iran? Yes. You got it! You win a
free trip to Iran. And if you come you'll discover not only a
Muslim country where many people were sincerely sympathetic to
America after Sept. 11, but a country where so many people on the
street are now talking about -- and hoping for -- a reopening of
relations with America that the ruling hard-liners had to take the
unprecedented step two weeks ago of making it illegal for anyone
to speak about it in public."

So Friedman, at least, uniquely has some idea what's going on in Iran,
and even understands some generational theory.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 06-Jan-2020 World View: Generational theory in the Pentagon

(01-05-2020, 07:32 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I wonder if there's anyone in the Pentagon who is familiar with
> generational theory. Certainly an understanding that Iran is in a
> generational Awakening would have helped to make the decision that
> killing Soleimani had limited downside risk.

That's an interesting question. Sure, there may well be people in the
Pentagon or State Dept. who are following my web site, and in fact I
occasionally exchange e-mail messages with someone in government. But
we've had many discussions in the Generational Dynamics forum that
anyone who talks about generational theory in the workplace or even
with friends meets with hostility. So-called "experts" have no desire
to have their ideological beliefs challenged.

That's why this whole thing about Steve Bannon being an adviser to
Donald Trump has been such a big deal for me. I've often wondered
whether anyone in the White House follows the Generational Dynamics
web site, or is even on my mailing list under an anonymous name. The
one thing I did note -- and I wrote many articles about it -- is that
whenever Donald Trump did anything in foreign policy that baffled the
media and the Democrats (which was pretty much always), I was always
able to explain how the decision made perfect sense from the point of
view of Generational Dynamics. In fact, the current actions on Iran
are like that. That doesn't mean that Trump or his advisers are
specifically analyzing situations from the point of view of
generational theory, since the same conclusions can always be reached
independently, but at the least it's been a coincidence. And this is
in contrast to, for example, the Obama administration decisions, which
never made any sense whatsoever.

One thing that I've learned repeatedly is that the experts in
Washington have no clue what's going on in the world. As I've
mentioned several times in my articles, I learned this in 2006 when
Congressional Quarterly and the London Times did a survey of Mideast
"experts," many with years of experience, and found out that they
didn't know the answers to the simplest questions.

One of things that the experts didn't know was whether al-Qaeda was a
Sunni or Shia organization. Think about that. We had people --
Republicans and Democrats -- making foreign policy who were so
ignorant and stupid that they couldn't answer the simplest questions
about the subject they were supposed to be experts on. (And recall
that Pelosi famously declared that al-Qaeda was not in Iraq. Lol.)

Today's politicians and media are obviously just as ignorant, which is
obvious every time they open their mouths. I've singled out the
Connecticut senator Chris Murphy because al-Jazeera has run video from
him several times, and referred to him as an "expert." He's been in
Congress since 2007 and on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
since 2013, so he should know what's going on. And yet, he says the
most incredibly stupid things. My theory is that the reason that
al-Jazeera runs video from him and others like him is that they want
to show to their Arab audience how stupid the Americans are.

It's obvious that none of the experts on tv has any idea of what's
going on in Iran, and I assume that the same is true of people
in the Pentagon. You don't need to know generational theory to
know what's going on in Iran, and in fact that carries the "fourth
turning" baggage with it. But you would need to know something about
Iran's history, and these people know less than nothing.

Let's look at what you or someone in the Pentagon or elsewhere would
have to know to have any idea what's going on in Iran:

• It would be nice to know something about the relationship
  between the Constitutional Revolution and the Islamic Revolution,
  but that would be asking too much.
  
  
• You'd have to recognize the importance of the Iran/Iraq
  war of the 1980s. But why would anyone know about that? There are
  two wars going on right now -- in Syria and Yemen -- and there have
  been other recent wars -- Gaza wars, Lebanon war, Iraq war, Gulf
  war -- so why would anyone know anything about this ancient
  antedeluvian Iran/Iraq war that happened so long ago that it's
  totally meaningless and forgotten today?
  
  
• Then you'd have to be able to make generational connections. This
  is very abstract, and few people are capable of it, given that few
  people can do fourth grade percentage problems. Suppose a poll in
  1990 revealed that only 20% of 30-40 year old Iranians believe that
  ABC is true, and a poll that today says that 80% of 30-40 year olds
  believe that ABC is true. Most analysts, reporters, economists and
  politicians would say, omigod, 30-40 year olds have changed their
  minds, and they fall back on the usual extraneous factors, such as
  increased poverty or a change in the US administration. They would
  not be mentally capable of understanding that 30-40 year olds in 1990
  would be 50-60 years old today, and 10-20 year olds in 1990 would be
  30-40 years old today, and so they haven't changed their minds at all.
  Examining the two poll results would reveal that everyone believes the
  same thing they did 20 years ago, but they've just gotten older. That
  concept is completely foreign and incomprehensible to the mainstream
  media, economists and analysts, but it's crucial to understanding
  what's going on in Iran today. And you have to understand that, even
  if you know nothing about generational theory.
  
  
• Applying that abstract reasoning to the current situation, the
  students who were beaten, tortured and jailed by Iran's security
  policy for peaceful demonstrations 20 years ago are now going to be
  30-40 years old, and they're obviously going to remain extremely angry
  at the current hardline leaders, even if they are thronging the
  streets, crying about Solomeini.
  
  
• Even more recently, those 30-40 year olds have not forgotten
  that just a month ago, Solomeini was overseeing the torture,
  rape, jailing and murder of peaceful anti-government protesters.
  
  
• Applying the same abstract reasons, everyone over age 25 in Iran
  today has some personal memory of the Iran/Iraq war, and how their
  fathers, uncles and brothers were tortured and killed by Iraqis. For
  these people, Solomeini is a war hero, and those feelings haven't gone
  away. So feelings about Solomeini are going to be mixed -- many
  revere him for fighting the Iraqis, and also loathe him for torturing
  and killing peaceful Iranian protesters. Once again, this is way too
  nuanced and abstract for anyone in Washington to understand.
  
  
• Finally, the situation in Iraq is even more nuanced. On the one
  hand, Solomeini is a war criminal because of the Iran/Iraq war, and
  Solomeini has been overseeing the Iran-backed People's Mobilization
  Forces (PMFs) in torturing, beating and jailing peaceful anti-Iran
  protesters, but on the other hand, Iran is pretty much in control of
  Iraq's government, which is pretty much in shambles anyway.

So, my point in answer to your question is that what has to be
understood about the situation in Iran actually does not require
an understanding of generational theory, but it does require a
knowledge of the history of Iran, and the ability to do fourth
grade math.

Obviously, I don't expect media reporters and analysts to have
the mental capacity to understand all that, but I do expect
people who call themselves "experts" to understand at least some
of the simpler concepts, which they don't.

[Warren Dew]

(01-06-2020, 01:06 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [*]Applying the same abstract reasons, everyone over age 25 in Iran
today has some personal memory of the Iran/Iraq war, and how their
fathers, uncles and brothers were tortured and killed by Iraqis.  For
these people, Solomeini is a war hero, and those feelings haven't gone
away.  So feelings about Solomeini are going to be mixed -- many
revere him for fighting the Iraqis, and also loathe him for torturing
and killing peaceful Iranian protesters.  Once again, this is way too
nuanced and abstract for anyone in Washington to understand.

This is a good point.  It's a lot safer to participate in the eulogies when someone is safely dead, so there's no chance that someone you praise today will be doing something you hate tomorrow.  The rest of your points here are good points, too.

That said, it's notable that the current "mourners" are all men, and are in the big cities that are seats of government, while the protests against the government include lots of women, and started in the boondocks before breaking out everywhere.  These are not the same people, and they don't represent the same parts of society.

It does seem most of the experts are coming around to the conclusion that Iran is not going to do anything drastic immediately.  Of course, that's an easier conclusion to come to when it has been four days and Iran has already not done anything drastic immediately.

[pbrower2a]

(01-05-2020, 07:32 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(01-05-2020, 01:37 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: As usual, if you want to believe stupid things, then listen to the
idiots in Washington.  If you want to know what's actually going on in
the world, then follow the Generational Dynamics analyses that I've
been posting.

I wonder if there's anyone in the Pentagon who is familiar with generational theory.  Certainly an understanding that Iran is in a generational Awakening would have helped to make the decision that killing Soleimani had limited downside risk.

Many still consider the generational theory a fringe study. The faults are obvious. We try to interpret history, but such is messy. The American Revolution is not the Civil War, is not the Great Depression and World War II, and is not this time. Even so, Lincoln made allusions to the American Revolution, and FDR made plenty of allusions to Lincoln, even treating the Nazis as rebels against old and necessary virtues. If anything, Spain in the 1930's seemed more an analogue to contemporary America due to the ideological polarization and the ruthlessness of at least one side. The threat to American democracy does not come from a despotic king in London, spiders in the soul of one region (slavery in the South), or foreign powers whose leadership is ominously similar to images of Satan in behavior.  The threat comes from people already here, people generally pampered from childhood, who put their self image and economic interests above the basic humanity of other Americans. 

Once you get past the politics, the supporters of Donald Trump aren't bad people. They could never get away with the horrible things that Trump has done. Many of them do jobs in which they die a little every day -- like getting to run a cash-register transaction at a convenience store in which someone fills his bloated pick-up truck and the boat that it tows.. and loads up with drinks and party foods for a great time on the nearby lake. Such a transaction may be more than one gets in a month of work, and the customer finds it no great difficulty for himself. And that person must put on a big, bright, happy-to-serve-you smile. Life can be marginal in what is supposedly the richest country in the world. Maybe they recognize that efforts to challenge the idea that 95% of the people are to suffer for 2% who get to live like sultans are pointless -- or at least if they must suffer so that a few can live like sultans, evening it out between themselves and perhaps 40% who do not suffer as they do makes things more equitable.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 07-Jan-2020 World View: Stampede kills 32 at funeral for Iran's Soleimani

The hysteria changes every day. First, the US and Iran would be at
war by Monday. Then Iran would bring the US to its knees with
retaliation. The assassination is a war crime, justifying a brand new
impeachment trial. etc. etc.

On Tuesday there was a stampede at Soleimani's funeral, killing 32
people and injuring 190. If this weren't so tragic, it would be
Karmic (or in Persian I guess it's Kismet).

Why did the government ask so many people to attend the funeral? Why
weren't the crowds better managed? Is this Allah's way of punishing
Iran for deifying a criminal who had committed atrocities during the
Iran/Iraq war, and who oversaw the beating, torture, rape, jailing,
and murder of thousands of innocent peaceful protesters on the streets
of Iran and Iraq?

Why am I asking these questions? Because those are exactly the kinds
of questions that Iran was asking in 2015 when there was a huge
stampede at the Hajj in Saudi Arabia. Of the almost 800 pilgrims
killed in the stampede, at least 464 were from Iran, which was more
than from any other country.

** 27-Sep-15 World View -- After Hajj stampede disaster, Muslims debate the 'Will of Allah'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e150927

The Iranians were apoplectic about this, accusing the Saudis of
everything from gross negligence to murder. Now the Iranians are
guilty of exactly the same thing.

---- Source:

-- Stampede kills 32 at funeral for Iran general: state TV
https://www.france24.com/en/20200107-sta...l-state-tv
(France24, 7-Jan-2020)

[pbrower2a]

Soleimani was a nasty character. So is Trump. Don't get me wrong; I loathe the regime in Iran. Let's not give it a really-nasty "Great Satan" against which to unify, one worse than America has been by the standards of the corrupt, oppressive ayatollahs.

Want more grounds for impeachment? Try the threat of our President to destroy 52 cultural sites of Iran.Plotting or threatening such is itself a crime against humanity.

I look at John Bolton, consistently one of the biggest warmongers in America, and he has (pardon the pun) bolted...maybe he knows enough that the next Democratic President would send war criminals to the Hague Tribunal just to recover some respectability for America. The Hague Tribunal has a high conviction rate and it gets very long terms of imprisonment. 380 days to go...

[John J. Xenakis]

** 07-Jan-2020 World View: DOD Statement on Iranian Ballistic Missile Attacks in Iraq

Immediate Release

DOD Statement on Iranian Ballistic Missile Attacks in Iraq
Jan. 7, 2020

Statement from Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Public
Affairs Jonathan Hoffman:

At approximately 5:30 p.m. (EST) on January 7, Iran launched more than
a dozen ballistic missiles against U.S. military and coalition forces
in Iraq. It is clear that these missiles were launched from Iran and
targeted at least two Iraqi military bases hosting U.S. military and
coalition personnel at Al-Assad and Irbil.

We are working on initial battle damage assessments.

In recent days and in response to Iranian threats and actions, the
Department of Defense has taken all appropriate measures to safeguard
our personnel and partners. These bases have been on high alert due to
indications that the Iranian regime planned to attack our forces and
interests in the region.

As we evaluate the situation and our response, we will take all
necessary measures to protect and defend U.S. personnel, partners, and
allies in the region.

Due to the dynamic nature of the situation, we will continue to
provide updates as they become available.

https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Release...s-in-iraq/

[John J. Xenakis]

** 07-Jan-2020 World View: Intentional miss

According to reports this evening, Iran fired about a dozen high
precision missiles at two Iraqi military bases. These missiles
destroyed some property, and did not cause any American casualties,
though they did cause some Iraqi casualties.

Multiple analysts are saying that this appears to be an "intentional
miss," to save face, and to satisfy the hawks in Iran. The fact that
there were Iraqi casualties may affect the relationship between Iran
and Iraq.

Trump will be speaking to the nation on Wednesday morning.

[pbrower2a]

Any split between the President and the DOD (the adults in the room) will indicate big trouble.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 08-Jan-2020 World View: Iran stands down after missile attack

You'd never know it from the mainstream media, but the last 24 hours
appear to have been a further setback for Iran.

As we've previously discussed, Iran badly miscalculated by believing
that they could continue to attack American troops with impunity. The
assassination of Iran's Gen. Qassim Soleimani was a tremendous shock
to Iran's leaders.

The funeral for Iran was staged to show that millions of Iranians now
support the Iran's government, although it showed nothing of the sort,
since it's widely believed that, while there were many genuine
mourners, most of those attending the funeral did so because they were
forced to by the government.

As I wrote yesterday, the whole funeral show was marred by a stampede
that killed dozens of people, an ironic event, given that a stampede
occurred in Saudi Arabia in 2015, killing hundreds of Iranians, that
Iran blamed on incompetence and criminality of Saudi leadership. Now,
there are certain to be accusations in Iran questioning the competence
and criminality of Iran's leaders, and even questioning whether the
stampede was punishment from Allah for deifying a bloody monster like
Soleimani.

Then there was last night's revenge attack on America. This consisted
of dozens of high-precision missiles apparently targeting grassy
fields near Iraqi military bases where some American soldiers are
stationed. No American was hurt, but it appears to have been an
"intentional miss" to prevent further retaliation from Trump.

Next, incredibly, a Ukrainian airliner crashed shortly after takeoff
from Tehran airport, killing 176 people, mostly Iranians, with no
survivors. Iran's officials claim it was a mechanical problem with
the plane, but Ukrainian airline officials say that the plane was
inspected two days ago with no problem. The plane's "black box" would
provide the answers, but apparently Iran is not going to permit anyone
else to see the data in the black box. The plane exploded and fell to
earth shortly after the missile attack. The obvious suspicion, denied
by Iran, is that an Iranian missile shot down the plane, or an Iranian
terrorist attack brought down the plane.

***
*** Generational analysis of Iran's response
***

You know, Dear Reader, whenever I make predictions as I did in my
article on Friday, saying unequivocally that there wouldn't be a war,
I always take a deep breath and wonder whether this will finally be
the time that I'm wrong, and I look like an idiot. Fortunately for me
and for Generational Dynamics, that didn't happen this time, and in
fact has never happened in hundreds of such predictions over the
years, although this was one of the most dramatic.

** 4-Jan-20 World View -- Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200104


What did happen, obviously, is completely in line with the
generational analysis I posted. What I particularly want to point to
is the history of Iran's border wars in the 1800s. These wars were
disastrous for Iran, with the result that Iran takes pride in not
invading anyone. Instead, they've sublimated their military
nationalism into paying terrorist groups to conduct proxy wars on
Iran's behalf.

The Iranians have really botched this up. They got Soleimani killed,
they messed up the funeral, they may be responsible for an airline
disaster, and they launched an "intentional miss" missile attack.

The significance of this is that the missile attack was supposedly
attacking Americans, but it was on Iraqi bases on Iraqi soil. Iraq
has been undergoing months of anti-Iran protests. Iran's missile
attack on Iraqi soil is going to be interpreted as a message to Iraq's
government to continue doing as they're told, and it will strengthen
the voices of the many people who want to see Iran out.

I saw an interview on the BBC with Ayad Allawi, former VP and PM of
Iraq. Allawi is Shia, but opposed to Iran's presence in Iraq. One
thing that was interesting was that the BBC interviewer made the usual
hysterical remarks about war, but Allawi clearly thought they were
ridiculous and laughed them off.

However, the one point that really stuck out for me was when Allawi
was asked whether he would prefer Iranian influence or American
influence in Iraq, to which he said that he prefers American
influence. Upon further questioning, he said that when there are
problems with the American relationship, the Iraqis can get them
resolved by appealing to the United Nations or the European Union, but
when there are problems with Iran, then Iraq was simply screwed
(though he didn't use that word).

Anyone interested in watching the Allawi interview will find it on the
BBC Hardtalk podcast page:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p004t1s.../downloads

Returning now to Iran's plans, Iran is claiming that 30 American
soldiers were killed, though no American or Iraqi soldiers were
actually killed, though some Iraqis were injured.

Iran will learn a lesson from this episode, but not the lesson we
would like them to learn. They will not learn the lesson that they
shouldn't attack America and its allies.

The lesson that they will learn is to revisit the lesson they
originally learned during the disastrous 1860s border wars, and
they'll go back to attacking Americans through proxies and allies.
However, Iran will also have learned the lesson that proxy attacks can
lead to retribution from Donald Trump.

Sources:

-- Trump says Iran ‘appears to be standing down,’ missile strikes
resulted in no casualties
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-t...ll-is-well
(FoxNews, 8-Jan-2020)

-- US knew Iranian missiles were coming ahead of strike; Trump
announces new sanctions
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/worl...842200001/
(USAToday, 8-Jan-2020)

Related Articles:

** 4-Jan-20 World View -- Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200104


** 1-Jan-20 World View -- US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200101


** 31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191231


** 29-Nov-19 World View -- Spiraling bloodbath in Iraq, as anti-Iran and anti-government riots spread
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191129


** 3-Nov-19 World View -- Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191103

[John J. Xenakis]

** 08-Jan-2020 World View: The hottest

(09-19-2019, 03:32 AM)Marypoza Wrote: > -- you were listing examples of how the Government comprised our
> national security. I believe Rags was responding to that

> Bernie/Tulsi 2020

It's worth noting that Tulsi Gabbard is the hottest candidate
currently running for president.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 10-Jan-2020 World View: The power of love

(01-08-2020, 08:28 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(09-19-2019, 03:32 AM)Marypoza Wrote: > -- you were listing examples of how the Government comprised our
> national security. I believe Rags was responding to that

> Bernie/Tulsi 2020

It's worth noting that Tulsi Gabbard is the hottest candidate
currently running for president.

I forgot about Marianne Williamson. She was hottest candidate running
for president, and the way she looks and the mystical way she talks
definitely remind me of a couple of sensational girls that I dated
years ago. But she dropped out today, so Tulsi Gabbard is now the
hottest again.