The Coronavirus

[gabrielle]

(04-17-2020, 07:43 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 07:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The way I am figuring it, the more you test, the more you find.  The more you find, the worse Trump looks in ignoring the problem early.

Sure - because your beliefs are politically motivated.  A lot of conservatives see it as the opposite:  the more you find, the lower the fatality rate becomes, and the better Trump looks.

Except that deaths are being under reported as well.  People are dying in their homes without being tested or being admitted to a hospital.

[Classic-Xer]

(04-17-2020, 07:56 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 07:43 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 07:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The way I am figuring it, the more you test, the more you find.  The more you find, the worse Trump looks in ignoring the problem early.

Sure - because your beliefs are politically motivated.  A lot of conservatives see it as the opposite:  the more you find, the lower the fatality rate becomes, and the better Trump looks.

If Trump agreed with you, then why is he working so hard to block testing?

One can't test without tests (we are a few billion short right now) and enough testing machines to give results (we are several million short right now). I'm amazed that we are pretty much healthy right now.

[Classic-Xer]

(04-17-2020, 09:44 PM)gabrielle Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 07:43 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 07:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The way I am figuring it, the more you test, the more you find.  The more you find, the worse Trump looks in ignoring the problem early.

Sure - because your beliefs are politically motivated.  A lot of conservatives see it as the opposite:  the more you find, the lower the fatality rate becomes, and the better Trump looks.

Except that deaths are being under reported as well.  People are dying in their homes without being tested or being admitted to a hospital.

You don't think they're being found, tested and added to the death total.

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-17-2020, 10:11 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: One can't test without tests (we are a few billion short right now) and enough testing machines to give results (we are several million short right now). I'm amazed that we are pretty much healthy right now.

Me too.  I suspect the bug is more contagious and less lethal than the general guess?  Lots of contagious people who show no symptoms?  If as extrapolated from the New York City maternity case one person in eight carries the virus, then I extrapolate that we will soon have the bug very common in the population, and very heavy isolation on the seniors.  We will see if the more rural areas who have not jumped to isolation early have health care overload problems.

CNN has an article up that one study shows 85 times the number of people have had the virus than initially detected (or not).  That confirms my guess.

[Classic-Xer]

(04-17-2020, 12:11 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Darwin Award candidates as well?

I think the Darwin's are going to be okay regardless.

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-17-2020, 10:41 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 12:11 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Darwin Award candidates as well?

I think the Darwin's are going to be okay regardless.

They won't lack for candidates at any rate. Perhaps like the hospitals they may have an overload situation. You are right not to worry though.

[Classic-Xer]

(04-17-2020, 10:32 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 10:11 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: One can't test without tests (we are a few billion short right now) and enough testing machines to give results (we are several million short right now). I'm amazed that we are pretty much healthy right now.

Me too.  I suspect the bug is more contagious and less lethal than the general guess?  Lots of contagious people who show no symptoms?  If as extrapolated from the New York City maternity case one person in eight carries the virus, then I extrapolate that we will soon have the bug very common in the population, and very heavy isolation on the seniors.  We will see if the more rural areas who have not jumped to isolation early have health care overload problems.

CNN has an article up that one study shows 85 times the number of people have had the virus than initially detected (or not).  That confirms my guess.

I live in a state with six million people. We have one thousand sick, one thousand treated and released and a couple hundred dead so far. I figure COVID19 has actually been around since Christmas. The original tests (the tests that were on hand and distributed to hospitals) sucked and didn't give accurate readings so we had no testing available at all at the beginning. I know a woman who hasn't hugged her mother for well over a month. I pretty sure her mother would risk her life to hug her daughter again at this point in her life.

[pbrower2a]

(04-17-2020, 11:22 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 10:32 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 10:11 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: One can't test without tests (we are a few billion short right now) and enough testing machines to give results (we are several million short right now). I'm amazed that we are pretty much healthy right now.

Me too.  I suspect the bug is more contagious and less lethal than the general guess?  Lots of contagious people who show no symptoms?  If as extrapolated from the New York City maternity case one person in eight carries the virus, then I extrapolate that we will soon have the bug very common in the population, and very heavy isolation on the seniors.  We will see if the more rural areas who have not jumped to isolation early have health care overload problems.

CNN has an article up that one study shows 85 times the number of people have had the virus than initially detected (or not).  That confirms my guess.

I live in a state with six million people. We have one thousand sick, one thousand treated and released and a couple hundred dead so far. I figure COVID19 has actually been around since Christmas. The original tests (the tests that were on hand and distributed to hospitals) sucked and didn't give accurate readings so we had no testing available at all at the beginning. I know a woman who hasn't hugged her mother for well over a month. I pretty sure her mother would risk her life to hug her daughter again at this point in her life.

factually wrong.
Highly unlikely 

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-18-2020, 01:51 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 11:22 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: I live in a state with six million people. We have one thousand sick, one thousand treated and released and a couple hundred dead so far. I figure COVID19 has actually been around since Christmas. The original tests (the tests that were on hand and distributed to hospitals) sucked and didn't give accurate readings so we had no testing available at all at the beginning. I know a woman who hasn't hugged her mother for well over a month. I pretty sure her mother would risk her life to hug her daughter again at this point in her life.

factually wrong.
Highly unlikely 

A quick Google on ‘Coronavirus timeline’ did get the following I’m afraid.  From Justsecurity.org

Quote:January 20, 2020: The United States and South Korea each announce their first case of COVID-19 on the same day.

[pbrower2a]

(04-17-2020, 12:11 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 12:04 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-16-2020, 11:05 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN is reporting that Social-distancing deniers have arrived.  The red pattern has always been to deny any problem that can only be solved be big government and big taxes.  The Coronavirus obviously counts.  The efforts to isolate by government order are considered tyrannical.  Trump’s attempts to reopen the country and minimize these isolation are to be applauded.  The old values favoring Unraveling selfishness and hedonism are thus continued.  The post trigger dedication to the common good, to helping out the people on the front lines, is shunned.

Michigan had a protest recently, where the protesters ignored social distancing, flew Trump banners, and if there were any contaminated people carried the Coronavirus back home to their communities.  More hot spots.

If it was possible to let them have their way in one or more places isolated from the rest of us, that would make for nearly perfect all-volunteer control groups.

Darwin Award candidates as well?

It is for creative expressions of individual stupidity. Collective stupidity does not count. Darwin Awards do not go to those who put others at risk.  Children and the mentally-ill do not count. People doing things in the normal line of work or dying for some cause or principle do not count.

[Eric the Green]

(04-17-2020, 12:04 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-16-2020, 11:05 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN is reporting that Social-distancing deniers have arrived.  The red pattern has always been to deny any problem that can only be solved be big government and big taxes.  The Coronavirus obviously counts.  The efforts to isolate by government order are considered tyrannical.  Trump’s attempts to reopen the country and minimize these isolation are to be applauded.  The old values favoring Unraveling selfishness and hedonism are thus continued.  The post trigger dedication to the common good, to helping out the people on the front lines, is shunned.

Michigan had a protest recently, where the protesters ignored social distancing, flew Trump banners, and if there were any contaminated people carried the Coronavirus back home to their communities.  More hot spots.

If it was possible to let them have their way in one or more places isolated from the rest of us, that would make for nearly perfect all-volunteer control groups.

In contrast to some on the Left who attribute our problems today solely to mainstream media or the elites and politicians, I attribute them also to these kinds of people who swallow the neo-liberal 3T-era kool-ad and vote for it.

[Eric the Green]

(04-17-2020, 09:44 PM)gabrielle Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 07:43 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 07:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The way I am figuring it, the more you test, the more you find.  The more you find, the worse Trump looks in ignoring the problem early.

Sure - because your beliefs are politically motivated.  A lot of conservatives see it as the opposite:  the more you find, the lower the fatality rate becomes, and the better Trump looks.

Except that deaths are being under reported as well.  People are dying in their homes without being tested or being admitted to a hospital.

That is the fact. Testing could have been made available to all as it was in South Korea, Germany, China and some other places, and deaths and cases could have been reduced. Instead the Trump USA is the epicenter of the outbreak now, and deaths and cases are still growing at the same rate despite the shutdowns. Many people may not be sick, or not in the hospital, but still carry the virus. Any one of us could be among them, but we don't know because there is no testing. We don't even know for sure that people who recover are immune.

The shutdowns have likely reduced the case and death rates, which otherwise would have still been increasing much more rapidly. The linear trend is still straight up, however. If social distancing and shelter in place/lockdowns are relaxed now, all these increasing numbers of people with the virus will spread it and the outbreak will mushroom, and Trump's hopes for a reopened economy in time for the election will be gone.

[Eric the Green]

(04-18-2020, 02:10 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-18-2020, 01:51 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 11:22 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: I live in a state with six million people. We have one thousand sick, one thousand treated and released and a couple hundred dead so far. I figure COVID19 has actually been around since Christmas. The original tests (the tests that were on hand and distributed to hospitals) sucked and didn't give accurate readings so we had no testing available at all at the beginning. I know a woman who hasn't hugged her mother for well over a month. I pretty sure her mother would risk her life to hug her daughter again at this point in her life.

factually wrong.
Highly unlikely 

A quick Google on ‘Coronavirus timeline’ did get the following I’m afraid.  From Justsecurity.org

Quote:January 20, 2020: The United States and South Korea each announce their first case of COVID-19 on the same day.

That's quite an extensive and useful article.

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-18-2020, 03:29 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(04-18-2020, 02:10 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: A quick Google on ‘Coronavirus timeline’ did get the following I’m afraid.  From Justsecurity.org

Quote:January 20, 2020: The United States and South Korea each announce their first case of COVID-19 on the same day.

That's quite an extensive and useful article.

Agreed.  I started out looking for one thing only, but it contains a pretty good history of how Trump eliminated pandemic response and the timing of the outbreak.

[Warren Dew]

(04-17-2020, 09:44 PM)gabrielle Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 07:43 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 07:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The way I am figuring it, the more you test, the more you find.  The more you find, the worse Trump looks in ignoring the problem early.

Sure - because your beliefs are politically motivated.  A lot of conservatives see it as the opposite:  the more you find, the lower the fatality rate becomes, and the better Trump looks.

Except that deaths are being under reported as well.  People are dying in their homes without being tested or being admitted to a hospital.

People who die outside hospitals get tested postumously in the US.  In fact, the very first deaths that died in that nursing home in Washington were tested posthumously.

This is different than in Europe, where a lot of countries actually are counting only those who die in hospitals.

[Bob Butler 54]

In 1911, there was a similar cross species jump that caused a pandemic.  Similarly, it originated in China.  There was much more cooperation at that time around between major powers.

CNN is suggesting the medical community should hold a conference after this is over and sharing the lessons learned. And by the way, they might exclude the politicians.  The article ends...

Quote:Perhaps that is what needs to happen at some point after the coronavirus pandemic: the world's scientists could circumvent the politicians to find a way to meet, share and discuss Covid-19 in an open forum.

Perhaps they should have read generation theory?  

It is kind of hard when you hold up the same great powers who were securing the alliance networks which resulted in the Great War as models of international cooperation.

[David Horn]

(04-18-2020, 04:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 09:44 PM)gabrielle Wrote: Except that deaths are being under reported as well.  People are dying in their homes without being tested or being admitted to a hospital.

People who die outside hospitals get tested postumously in the US.  In fact, the very first deaths that died in that nursing home in Washington were tested posthumously.

This is different than in Europe, where a lot of countries actually are counting only those who die in hospitals.

People are not tested post-death -- in of out of the hospital -- because we already lack enough testing material for the truly sick and at-risk. More to the point, many deaths are due to secondary causes (e.g. heart attacks, organ failures, diabetes crises) haven't triggered interest until just recently. This has been widely reported in the mainstream media.

[pbrower2a]

Like many others I have contemplated what I would do when the COVID-19 plague abates. I thought that northern Michigan would be  comparatively safe. Well, many others had that idea before me, and some micro-cities of the northern Lower Peninsula are badly afflicted even if they look better tan the urban Hell-holes of southern Michigan and the insipid farming communities of southern Michigan. People were taking  I-75 north from Greater Detroit, US 131 from Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids (it is freeway for about 150 miles, and US 127 from Lansing and Jackson (much of it freeway. Michigan builds excellent roads to foster tourism in a state that one has to take some effort to get to.

The Upper Peninsula of Michigan and the northern Lower Peninsula are tourist paradises in most years. This time they are "Paradise Lost" instead of a piece of northern New England in the Midwest.

Quote: OTSEGO COUNTY — A late start to social distancing to contain the spread of the coronavirus and Gaylord’s crossroads location may have helped to turn Otsego County into a hot spot for the virus in Northern Michigan.

The county now has 19 confirmed cases of the virus or COVID-19 as of Wednesday (April 1) according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS). In contrast, Grand Traverse County, with nearly four times the population (92,573 in 2018) as Otsego (24,665), has eight cases. Charlevoix County, with 26,244, has recorded four cases.

Dr. Josh Meyerson, medical director at the Health Department of Northwest Michigan, said Otsego’s elevated case level reinforces the importance of social distancing and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s stay-at-home order.

“Some of the cases originated from a case affiliated with international travel and then involved people who had contact with each other at a public place. All of that occurred prior to executive orders that limited movement and prior to any known cases in the county,” he said.

Everyone was following the protocols that were in place at the time, Meyerson noted.

The Health Department of Northwest Michigan on March 23 issued a news release to make the public aware of an area that may have allowed for virus exposure.

“Individuals who were present at Bennethum’s Northern Inn on March 12 from 5:00-8:00 p.m. and March 14 from 8:00-10:30 p.m. may have been exposed to COVID-19 and should self monitor for 14 days from the date of potential exposure (either March 12 or March 14),” said the release.

“As we became aware of the cases we utilized contact tracing to reach out to all of the contacts to facilitate their testing if they had symptoms and then reached out to their contacts,” said Meyerson.

He said the department has noticed a “significant” decrease in the number of contacts who are associated with positive cases since then because there is less exposure as people have been sheltering in place.

“I think it is safe to say that appropriate social distancing was not fully practiced throughout our community until we began seeing positive cases. It took many people by surprise to find out we had a positive in our own county. People tend to think that Northern Michigan is more protected than other places and we have seen that this is not necessarily true,” said Dr. Janelle Hendrian, chief medical officer at Munson Healthcare Otsego Memorial Hospital in Gaylord.

Hendrian noted that Gaylord is along the busy I-75 corridor “and many people from all over the state, including Northern Michigan, stop here for food and supplies. We currently have more positives reported than other Northern Michigan counties. Due to the nature of our town and wide utilization of our amenities, it is theoretically possible that we have more opportunities for exposure than one would think,” she added.

“It’s possible this is evidence of community spread or that they are individuals that work outside of the county and imported COVID-19 into Otsego County,” said Lynn Sutfin, public information officer for MDHHS. “It’s possible that several members of a family tested positive. (It) could also be that more people have been tested in Otsego County compared to Grand Traverse or Charlevoix counties.”

Meanwhile, Otsego County officials declared a local state of emergency due to the virus.

In related COVID-19 developments:

• The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Michigan reached 9,334, including 337 deaths as of Wednesday, according to the MDHHS.

There have been three virus-related deaths in Northern Michigan in Emmet, Kalkaska and Missaukee counties. Larry Cummings, 76, a professor at North Central Michigan College, passed away Tuesday at McLaren Northern Michigan in Petoskey because of complications from the virus.

• Whitmer said Thursday that Michigan’s 1.5 million public school students would not return to their classrooms this school year because of the coronavirus outbreak unless restrictions are lifted.

Michigan joins a growing list of states to cancel classroom instruction for the rest of the year, including Alabama, Arizona, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Vermont and Virginia.

• Whitmer also declared a state of disaster in Michigan on Wednesday and asked the state Legislature to extend Michigan’s existing state of emergency and new state of disaster by 70 days.

The order does not extend Michigan’s “stay-at-home” order, which is set to expire April 13. But it lays the groundwork for the governor to extend that order and other emergency orders now in place, for up to 70 days, should the Legislature approve the resolution, according to the Detroit Free Press.

https://www.petoskeynews.com/gaylord/fea...0ca60.html

Just stay home and make the best of the ugly reality of life. It is not that there is no place like home; it is that all else might as well not exist other than the communities, however dreary they may be, are all that is reasonably available for an indefinite time. Accept that Nature is not your ally. Maybe when we get this virus out of the way we will be in better shape for seeking to improve our communities instead of trying to escape them. Cleaning up the mess of our political life and a mindless, depraved culture  

For now I hate Life, and I do not refer to a board game, a cereal, or a defunct magazine. COVID-19, I understand, is a nasty way to go, and I will do my damnedest to outlast it.

[Eric the Green]

(04-18-2020, 04:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 09:44 PM)gabrielle Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 07:43 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 07:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The way I am figuring it, the more you test, the more you find.  The more you find, the worse Trump looks in ignoring the problem early.

Sure - because your beliefs are politically motivated.  A lot of conservatives see it as the opposite:  the more you find, the lower the fatality rate becomes, and the better Trump looks.

Except that deaths are being under reported as well.  People are dying in their homes without being tested or being admitted to a hospital.

People who die outside hospitals get tested postumously in the US.  In fact, the very first deaths that died in that nursing home in Washington were tested posthumously.

This is different than in Europe, where a lot of countries actually are counting only those who die in hospitals.

Reports from New York are that a lot of sick people stay at home, especially because of our immigration policy. Lots of people can't afford health care too, thanks to Republican policies, so they stay home and are not counted and not tested, dead or alive. Many more are just sick and ride it out and are not counted. The USA is woefully inadequate in its testing while Germany, Spain, South Korea, China have much more. Cases and deaths in poor and war-torn countries may already be way under-counted. 

There are more cases in the USA alone than the top 4 most severely-affected European countries. Deaths are rapidly catching up, since the USA's spike came later than Europe's.

Maybe we could have contained the virus if all known travelers to the US had been tested and quarantined, like the first arrivals from the cruise ships were. Somehow this got away from us in California and Washington, and then Trump kept Europeans from coming here, but not Americans visiting Europe, and they weren't even tested. I said and knew this would happen as a result. Hundreds of infected people coming home from Italy and France swarmed into New York and infected hundreds of thousands. The corona was out of the bag. Now there are thousands of cases in almost every major country, and hundreds in all countries. Airlines and cruise ships will be out of business.

The lockdowns have abated the number of cases and deaths. But the economy is plummeting. The Trump government refuses to supply tests, protective equipment, or enough of the funds needed to help people economically; such help may not even be available without borrowing more money than there are lenders. The USA is already in debt beyond repair. This buries it.

I could see that March 2020 was going to be a major crisis turning point. I saw health and financial problems for that month in the USA. I thought this crisis would pass fairly soon, and we'd be on to others. It is more severe than I thought, and it is apparently some kind of trigger or turning point. The curve is not flattening anywhere. Cases and deaths continue to mount at a steady pace. Too many are infected to even consider going back to normal without triggering an even-worse outbreak for many months or years to come. And then we'll need to discover, make and distribute vaccines on a massive nationwide scale. It's been done before, and the relief and rescue efforts can employ the unemployed like in the Depression to get this done if the Green New Deal is declared.

Reaganomics and Trumpism just will not suffice to bring about the kind of national emergency actions that we had in the previous 4T, and which are needed now. It looks like the crisis will continue all year, especially because Trump does not want to respond to it adequately. He is digging his own electoral grave. It appears he is following Reagan rather than Mussolini (his former self) in this crisis, and it will not serve him. After 2020 the nation's policies will become still more collectivist, as is typical of 4Ts. I hear Hillary's and Obama's campaign slogan all the time now during this crisis. "We're all in this together." Reagan would never have uttered such a phrase. His time is rapidly passing away.

Today it appears New York's new cases count declined. New deaths declined a little bit from what it was a few days ago. California's new cases are going up (3rd place in new cases just for yesterday), and CA seems on the verge of getting back in 4th place in total cases. But new deaths was lower in CA, 11th among states just for yesterday. Where I live, one of the first counties in the USA infected (if not the first), the new cases count has leveled off in the last few days below where it was last week, so far. The number hospitalized is relatively low.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[David Horn]

FWIW, I doubt that any country has an accurate count of COVID-19 deaths. Unless there is reason to suspect the virus, pneumonia is just that. The prevalence of asymptomatic COVID patients (if that's even a correct term for it) makes it worse. There is no single Typhoid Mary this time.