Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-May-2020 World View: China's offer to help N. Korea fight coronavirus raises suspicions

China's president Xi Jinping sent a message to North Korea's child
dictator Kim Jong-un calling for more efforts to strengthen
co-operation in preventing the spread of the coronavirus, and said
China was "willing to continue to provide assistance within its own
capacity for [North Korea] in the fight against Covid-19."

Xi also said he highly appreciated Mr Kim's support during China's
outbreak and "showed his personal attention to the situation of the
pandemic and people's health" in North Korea.

Xi's message was a response to Kim's earlier message to Kim, saying
that he "congratulated him, highly appreciating that he is seizing a
chance of victory in the war against the unprecedented epidemic."

These are just two seemingly ordinary friendly communications between
two dictators, but as usual with Chinese and North Korean policy, you
have search for hidden messages.

Supposedly, North Korea is completely free of the Wuhan Coronavirus,
according to its own claims. North Korea was the first to shut down
travel from China, closing the border in late January and ordering the
army to kill anyone who tried to cross it. Nobody really believes
that North Korea is free of the virus, but the fact that Xi offered to
help is a statement by Xi that he doesn't believe it either.

But it's more than that. Xi could have sent his message privately.
Instead, his message was very publicly published in the Chinese
Communist media. This suggests not only that Xi believes that North
Korea has a significant coronavirus problem, but that he
diplomatically wants to force Kim to admit it.

The existing situation is very dangerous to both China and North
Korea.

North Korea depends on cross-border trade to feed its people. If
cross-border trade were completely shut down, it could threaten the
Kim regime, which would be a diplomatic disaster for China. Trade
between North Korea and China is down by 90% in March.

If there's a widespread infection in North Korea, it would overwhelm
the North Korean health system, which would also threaten the Kim
regime.

If there's a significant infection in North Korea, it would likely
spread across the border into China.

So there are many reasons why Xi Jinping is concerned about a North
Korea infestation, and he may be signaling that Kim had better admit
it and start taking care of it.

Separately, in South Korea, nightclubs and bars in the capital city
Seoul have been ordered closed again, following a new outbreak linked
to a man who visited multiple nightclubs and bars.


---- Sources:

-- Coronavirus: China offers to help North Korea fight pandemic
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52597749
(BBC, 9-May-2020)

-- North Korea’s Trade With China Continues Rapid Decline
https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/north-ko...d-decline/
(Diplomat, 9-May-2020)

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-09-2020, 02:03 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Generational Dynamics is an enormous advancement in the analysis of history and the world, but instead of bringing me a living, it's only brought me hatred and being shunned by people I've known for years.  It's been a personal disaster for me.

Generational Dynamics just came out at the wrong time, just after an age boundary, so its predictions did not match the world views of those whose values had shifted more with the times.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-May-2020 World View: Generational Dynamics timing

(05-09-2020, 02:03 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > Generational Dynamics is an enormous advancement in the analysis
> of history and the world, but instead of bringing me a living,
> it's only brought me hatred and being shunned by people I've known
> for years. It's been a personal disaster for me.

(05-09-2020, 02:26 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: > Generational Dynamics just came out at the wrong time, just after
> an age boundary, so its predictions did not match the world views
> of those whose values had shifted more with the times.

That's good point. Probably the best time would be during the First
Turning, because the forecasts would be fairly hopeful.

You're young enough. After the war, assuming you survive, you could
write a book, and become rich and famous.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-09-2020, 06:26 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 09-May-2020 World View: Generational Dynamics timing

(05-09-2020, 02:03 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: >   Generational Dynamics is an enormous advancement in the analysis
>   of history and the world, but instead of bringing me a living,
>   it's only brought me hatred and being shunned by people I've known
>   for years.  It's been a personal disaster for me.  

(05-09-2020, 02:26 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: >   Generational Dynamics just came out at the wrong time, just after
>   an age boundary, so its predictions did not match the world views
>   of those whose values had shifted more with the times.  

That's good point.  Probably the best time would be during the First
Turning, because the forecasts would be fairly hopeful.

You're young enough.  After the war, assuming you survive, you could
write a book, and become rich and famous.

More worried about the virus than a war at this point.

They say about my Myers Briggs type that INTPs are more interested in figuring things out than sharing their result, getting credit or seeing their solution put into practice. That’s true to the extent that I have never put my ideas coherently together all in one place. Maybe this bug will give me enough less to do that I’ll get everything together.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-09-2020, 02:03 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: As I've said before, I never thought that Generational Dynamics was going to make me rich and famous, but I did hope that I could make a living from it.  Generational Dynamics is an enormous advancement in the analysis of history and the world, but instead of bringing me a living, it's only brought me hatred and being shunned by people I've known for years.  It's been a personal disaster for me.  At least Jeremiah was lucky enough to have a book written about him.  Perhaps my death will allow Generational Dynamics to be more widely recognized, and someone will write a book about it.  I do not want to be stoned to death.  I have no hope for life except to die quickly and painlessly.

You don’t get it.

I too have been something of a predictor of the future.  I have not become a social outcast by doing so.  The predictions I make mesh quite well with the average person I bump into.  Granted, this is Massachusetts.  Still, from time to time when we are grumbling about politicians, I bring in various aspects of my perspective.  The conversation generally takes off and I make friends with it.  There is no clash.  My world view is comparable to the people in the world around me, only a bit more thought out.

The difference is that Generational Dynamics is centered on Industrial Age observations and ways of thought and predicts things which would be quite true in the Industrial Age.  You have an Industrial Age mindset.  People were by the time the crisis rolled around quite ready and eager for a crisis war.  A crisis war was about all there was that would traumatize the kids growing up during the war.

Assume all generations that grew up in the shadow of nukes were traumatized.  Assume that the 1960s Generation Gap is inverted.  The older GIs were in favor of war, the young blue boomers were in favor of peace, so the way of thinking had reversed from the Industrial Age approach.

Work through the Generational Dynamics mechanisms with that assumption.  All generations are traumatized, or at least have made a logical rational decision to not put someone in charge who might start a crisis war.  The generation line featured in GD vanishes.  The cycles greatly change at the age boundary.  Predictions coming out of the system will no longer rise the hackles of those you encounter.

It is not the fact that you try to predict the future that makes people hate.  It is that you are making predictions incompatible with the way they think.  In this case, as it is the way they think that you are trying to predict, this does not give confirmation to your system.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-09-2020, 06:59 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: A major part of my system is world views.  How does a person look at the world?  With it comes values.  To perpetuate the culture, what should one strive for?  With scale, there is also culture.  Many people sharing a world view and values becomes a culture.  The system studies how cultures change and progress.

There are various types of world views.

I once got into an exchange with a fundamentalist (so called) Christian.  Everything said by the Bible was held to be true.  You had to converse with him in biblical speak, featuring numbers referencing specific quotes.  An argument based on any other perspective bounced off.  It just did not register on his brain.  As a result, I dusted off an adult version of my old Sunday school nun’s teachings in order to converse.  Even then he cherry picked.  The Bible is a historical document written over many years.  You can find in it anything from an eye for an eye to turning the other cheek.  He carefully picked to justify racism.  That was a feature of the Jewish culture at one point long ago.  Behold the land of milk and honey.  Kill the men.  Enslave the women.  The Jewish way at the time.  The holy way to this guy.

This would be one of many variants of a religious world view.  Others are far more to be respected.  Much wisdom of the ages is held in various religious systems, and much that is obsolete.  God is considered to be perfect and unchanging, yet He can only be as advanced as man has gotten to that point.

I got into another exchange with a supposed communist.  In order to deal with him, I would have to quote Marx and the policies of Russia during their communist period.  This was eerily reminiscent of quoting the Bible.  Fortunately, I had spent a lot of my college electives chasing Marx and Russian history.  Otherwise, other perspectives bounced off.  They were not considered.  Still, you are hardly expected to win on somebody else’s playing field.  When dealing with a tight system like that, someone can stick with the program and reject everything else.

This would be an example of a political mind set, dedicated to preserving one culture, one political way of looking at things.  You see political mind sets commonly on the T4T forums, especially the red and blue.

I try to adhere to a scientific mind set.  You learn from the world by observing the world.  If a theory is found to not compare well with reality, you either improve your theory or abandon it.  Attacking the observations is expected, or the logic of the theory, but not insults as the primary defense or ignoring criticism.  That is just evidence that you cannot defend your theory.  Meaningful criticism is a chance to learn, to improve one’s theory.

Naturally, I form opinions on who has which type of mind set and values based on how they behave.

The question is what one does if someone has a partisan political mind but presents his ideas a scientific theory without honoring the scientific rules?  If he ignores criticism, hurls insults, refuses observations and clings to his preferred dogma, you can tell what sort of world view he has.  That is common among internet political partisans.  Very common.  The question is what to do about it?

See what I mean about bouncing? Scattering a few Generational Dynamics buzz words around might help get rid of the ‘lol’ and ‘idiot’ responses? It’s not that my world view was changed greatly by reading the intro to one of John’s works. I mean his approach is to a great degree a subset of mine, truncated oddly at the beginning of the Information Age. But if you try to adopt the idiom of the other guy things don’t bounce off their mind as high.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 10-May-2020 World View: Predictions

(05-10-2020, 05:22 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: > You don’t get it.

> I too have been something of a predictor of the future. I have
> not become a social outcast by doing so. The predictions I make
> mesh quite well with the average person I bump into. Granted,
> this is Massachusetts. Still, from time to time when we are
> grumbling about politicians, I bring in various aspects of my
> perspective. The conversation generally takes off and I make
> friends with it. There is no clash. My world view is comparable
> to the people in the world around me, only a bit more thought
> out.

Truly laughable. The reason you're so popular being "something of a
predictor" is because you make left-wing predictions whose purpose is
to "mesh quite well" with the average liberal in Massachusetts. You
don't even care if your predictions turn out to be right or wrong.
And that's true of a million people who make predictions on tv, and
whose predictions are wrong half the time.

I always like to say that if you want to get a million predictions
right, then just make two million predictions, and in your case those
would be left-wing predictions. Even a broken clock is right twice a
day.

The reason that people hate and shun Generational Dynamics predictions
is because they're non-ideological and they're always right.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-10-2020, 07:58 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(05-10-2020, 05:22 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: You don’t get it.

I too have been something of a predictor of the future.  I have not become a social outcast by doing so.  The predictions I make mesh quite well with the average person I bump into.  Granted, this is Massachusetts. Still, from time to time when we are grumbling about politicians, I bring in various aspects of my perspective.  The conversation generally takes off and I make friends with it.  There is no clash.  My world view is comparable to the people in the world around me, only a bit more thought out.

Truly laughable.  The reason you're so popular being "something of a predictor" is because you make left-wing predictions whose purpose is to "mesh quite well" with the average liberal in Massachusetts.  You don't even care if your predictions turn out to be right or wrong. And that's true of a million people who make predictions on tv, and whose predictions are wrong half the time.

I always like to say that if you want to get a million predictions right, then just make two million predictions, and in your case those would be left-wing predictions.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

The reason that people hate and shun Generational Dynamics predictions is because they're non-ideological and they're always right.

That’s a miss. I have an INTP’s desire to understand things rather than a desire to be popular by agreeing with people. Wrong type. Also your world view is political and partisan. You respond like a political partisan rather than as a scientist. (Mike Alexander has the other highly scientific perspective on these sites. Most adhere either to the red or the blue.)

We will see about the crisis war. I was wondering last year what would happen if we went through a crisis period with a prophet-nomad-hero configuration without a trigger. Nukes were observed and though analysis as making military triggers very uncommon. Major powers did not make war on one another any longer.

That exploration was cut short by the virus, so we won’t know what happens with a no trigger crisis this time around the turning cycle. You were right in that I didn't care deeply that my analysis was no longer relevant. I responded by working a new analysis given a non military trigger. You are wrong in assuming that happens a lot. It doesn't.

But we have not so many years left in the prophet-nomad-hero configuration. We will see if another trigger hits during that interval. To me, it is not looking that way. We are too traumatized for a crisis war. We too recently remember the Bush 43 wars to put boots on the ground again. Thus, we seem unlikely to continue the Industrial Age cycles. What the cycles will look like in the Information Age has become confused by the presence of a non military trigger. Those are rare enough that you can’t count on them happening in a given turning. Things at the moment look less predictable.

[Warren Dew]

(05-10-2020, 07:58 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Truly laughable.  The reason you're so popular being "something of a
predictor" is because you make left-wing predictions whose purpose is
to "mesh quite well" with the average liberal in Massachusetts.  You
don't even care if your predictions turn out to be right or wrong.
And that's true of a million people who make predictions on tv, and
whose predictions are wrong half the time.

Exactly.

I actually made a living for three years making true predictions.  They weren't generational predictions, but they were system dynamics predictions about the behavior of large groups of people.

It was really tough.  What I learned was that people are far more willing to pay for predictions that what they want to happen will happen, than for predictions that are true.

I think this is just how the oracle business works, going back at least to Cassandra.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-10-2020, 02:34 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(05-10-2020, 07:58 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Truly laughable.  The reason you're so popular being "something of a
predictor" is because you make left-wing predictions whose purpose is
to "mesh quite well" with the average liberal in Massachusetts.  You
don't even care if your predictions turn out to be right or wrong.
And that's true of a million people who make predictions on tv, and
whose predictions are wrong half the time.

Exactly.

I actually made a living for three years making true predictions.  They weren't generational predictions, but they were system dynamics predictions about the behavior of large groups of people.

It was really tough.  What I learned was that people are far more willing to pay for predictions that what they want to happen will happen, than for predictions that are true.

I think this is just how the oracle business works, going back at least to Cassandra.

It works in reverse too.  Some people want to make predictions that go along with their ideology.  You don't have to be a professional.  You can see it in the ordinary partisan, in the guy predicting what he desires to see happening. Their ideology can make them not see a mistake in the prediction.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 10-May-2020 World View: China city on North Korea border locked down over Coronavirus

China is imposing martial law in Shulan city, in northeast China's
Jilin province, after a laundrywoman infected with Wuhan Coronavirus
spread the virus to 11 others.

It seems very likely that this story is related to the one that
I posted yesterday:

*** 09-May-2020 World View: China's offer to help N. Korea fight coronavirus raises suspicions
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=52001#p52001

It's been clear from the news this weekend that countries around the
world are removing the lockdown restrictions that were imposed in
February and March. It's different in every state, every province,
and every country, and restrictions in some places are being lifted
more rapidly than in others.

The last two months have been a worldwide education program, with
public courses on social isolation 1.01, mask-wearing 1.01,
and self-isolation 1.01.

In the next month we're going to see whether these education courses
have achieved the goal of allowing businesses to reopen without
resulting in a major resurgence of virus cases.

---- Sources:

-- NE China's Shulan City to reimpose community lockdown after new
COVID-19 infections
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-10/CO...index.html
(CGTN, Beijing, 10-May-2020)

-- China Closes Shulan City Near North Korea After Infections Rise
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...inhua-says
(Bloomberg, 9-May-2020)

-- Shulan city / City in Jilin declares martial law over COVID-19
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1187855.shtml
(Global Times, 10-May-2020)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 10-May-2020 World View: China's invasion of Taiwan

Jeepdinger Wrote:> Just saw this, true or not, it's disturbing. It would seem that
> the groundwork is being laid for military action.

> https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics...aiwan-grow

> Implication seems to be that it's inevitable, the people will
> demand it or the government will do it when they are prepared.
> Even if this is propaganda, it's setting the stage for a military
> move.

You're absolutely right about setting the stage. If there's to be an
invasion, then the CCP has to prepare the public for it, and the
referenced article is a good way to do it -- preparing the public
while maintaining deniability. An invasion is inevitable because the
CCP has said that it's inevitable.

• Hong Kong street protests, with sign saying,
  'one country two systems is dead'

Sunday's street protests in Hong Kong make it clear that the chaos in
Hong Kong is going to return full force. The CCP will have to take
Hong Kong by force when they take Taiwan by force.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-10-2020, 10:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Sunday's street protests in Hong Kong make it clear that the chaos in Hong Kong is going to return full force.  The CCP will have to take Hong Kong by force when they take Taiwan by force.

Still think both the US starting a land war in Asia or China starting a sea war with the US are futile and unlikely. China going into Hong Kong is different. They could do it if they want.

But China isn't a communist state anymore, really. The economy is in the hands of the capitalists. Do you kill a place optimized for them?

Perhaps more important, China endured chaos for a long time. It perhaps lasted from the Opium Wars to the Great Leap Forward. They have avoided anything that would return them to that time. Would it be worth the risk? Would going in now be a way to avoid that risk?

[Warren Dew]

(05-11-2020, 07:21 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: But China isn't a communist state anymore, really.  The economy is in the hands of the capitalists.  Do you kill a place optimized for them?

This was true under Deng and his immediate successors, but not under Xi.  Xi is highly authoritarian, and that extends to the economy as well.  That's why all the capitalists are moving their money to US real estate to the extent that they can.

[David Horn]

(05-11-2020, 10:06 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(05-11-2020, 07:21 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: But China isn't a communist state anymore, really.  The economy is in the hands of the capitalists.  Do you kill a place optimized for them?

This was true under Deng and his immediate successors, but not under Xi.  Xi is highly authoritarian, and that extends to the economy as well.  That's why all the capitalists are moving their money to US real estate to the extent that they can.

Capitalism and authoritarianism are not mutually exclusive -- quite to the contrary.  I agree that the shape of capitalism may change a bit, like it has among the oligarchy in Russia, but it's still money running the show.  And yes, they hedge their bets, because they can.

[Warren Dew]

That's a very loose definition of capitalism, or at least of free market capitalism.  I could as justifiably call US Democrats communist.

[David Horn]

(05-11-2020, 11:17 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: That's a very loose definition of capitalism, or at least of free market capitalism.  I could as justifiably call US Democrats communist.

Capitalism is defined by its name. It's the private ownership of productive enterprises and similar investments.  At its basic level, the rule of law is totally beside the point. Actually, the same applies to socialism's communal ownership.  That's one of the reasons people pointing to the Scandinavian countries as examples get totally incensed by right-wing references to Cuba and Venezuela. Political and economic systems are orthogonal.

[Bob Butler 54]

The Generational Dynamics problem is fairly simple. The logical rule is that you cannot count an inductive proof holding over a group that is not sampled. In specific, you can not count a proof taken from the Industrial Age as valid in the Industrial Age.

This can be dismissed by two methods, at least. The first is to attack the logic, the rule stated above. This has not been done.

The second is by taking a sample of a goodly number of Information Age cultures that have started crisis wars in the Information Age, preferably against cultures with nukes. As we are fairly late in an Information Age crisis, the samples would be there. You either find them or you don’t. This has not been done. One might look first at India, Pakistan and North Korea. They have spouted the rhetoric, but not launched the wars. They are in the minority of cultures, which would be a problem as the prediction is inevitable. Others?

There might be another route I have not thought of.

If nothing is done, you have to throw away Generational Dynamics. If you do not find the crisis wars that are supposed to be inevitable, it’s cycles are clearly not valid.

If the theory were scientific, the challenge would have been answered. It has not been.

This makes one wonder why Xenakis has not taken up the challenge. (I do not count using internet warrior level insults as a response.) I have already suggested an ideological motive. He has an internal reason to want to make the predictions that have ruined his life.

A second reason is the sunk cost fallacy. He has put so much energy and money into keeping Generational Dynamics alive that he is willing to keep it sort of alive in spite of the questionable assertion and logic.

At this point the crisis is not over. We could develop further crisis wars in the time remaining. Thus far, we have to go with what we have.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-May-2020 World View: System dynamics predictions

(05-10-2020, 07:58 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > Truly laughable. The reason you're so popular being "something of
> a predictor" is because you make left-wing predictions whose
> purpose is to "mesh quite well" with the average liberal in
> Massachusetts. You don't even care if your predictions turn out
> to be right or wrong. And that's true of a million people who
> make predictions on tv, and whose predictions are wrong half the
> time.

(05-10-2020, 02:34 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Exactly.

> I actually made a living for three years making true predictions.
> They weren't generational predictions, but they were system
> dynamics predictions about the behavior of large groups of people.

> It was really tough. What I learned was that people are far more
> willing to pay for predictions that what they want to happen will
> happen, than for predictions that are true.

> I think this is just how the oracle business works, going back at
> least to Cassandra.

I've never heard anyone say that they've been making predictions based
on system dynamics, besides myself. What kinds of predictions were
they?

And you're right about people hating predictions that are true, rather
than what they want to hear. It freaks people out, and turns some of
them into loudmouth assholes, because of cognitive dissonance. The
ancient Greeks were brilliant in coming up with the Cassandra myth as
something that describes humanity.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-11-2020, 09:27 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: And you're right about people hating predictions that are true, rather than what they want to hear.  It freaks people out, and turns some of them into loudmouth assholes, because of cognitive dissonance.  The ancient Greeks were brilliant in coming up with the Cassandra myth as something that describes humanity.

I’m not sure it is cognitive dissonance.  That occurs when you have a conflict between what you know and what you do.  Smoking is a classic example.  An addict will likely admit and know it is harmful, but smoke anyway.

The alternative is if you hear something which your beliefs hold to be false.  Say, if you believe smoking causes problems, and do not smoke, one may still be upset if a loved one smokes.  Your actions are totally in sync with what you believe, but there is still a dissonance.

In my case, I believe thoroughly in the logic, but am still presented with an illogical different belief.  There is a difference in beliefs.  If such a difference is significant enough and if the other guy is persistent enough in forcing his beliefs, there could be dissonance.

So it may not be that the other guy believes you and does not act on it.  It is that he doesn’t believe you and you are conflicting with his world view.