Generational Dynamics World View

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-03-2020, 10:23 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: You've also confirmed my original point: That all of the above history of the North Vietnam Communist genocide has been censored and suppressed by the antiwar left and the mainstream media and mainstream leftist historians.  

Well, I am aware of the genocide, and learned above it from the mainstream media.  It sort of confirms my point that you do not understand but often misrepresent the opposition.  The disappointment is that some are still obsessed with the old way of thinking, including yourself.

(11-03-2020, 10:23 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: It's the same as today, where the mainstream media and the Democrats are suppressing news of the antifa-blm fascist violence and news of Biden's criminality.  You can find all of the above information online, but you have to search hard for it.

My guess is that the reporting on violence and the Biden criminality were attempts at October surprises by ideological sources.  They were not considered significant enough to cover by the main stream press.  Again, this is your problem with understanding motivation and ideological prejudice.  You wanted to believe this garbage and to convince Earth 1.  I was going to wait a few months to see if anything real developed on it and call your false prophecies on it after a reasonable time.  I figure it was invented to sway the election and will disappear when it is over.  Likely optimistic.  Some will never learn.  To verify, check a mirror.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 03-Nov-2020 World View: Genocide

(11-03-2020, 10:23 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > You've also confirmed my original point: That all of the above
> history of the North Vietnam Communist genocide has been censored
> and suppressed by the antiwar left and the mainstream media and
> mainstream leftist historians.

(11-03-2020, 11:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: > Well, I am aware of the genocide, and learned above it from the
> mainstream media. It sort of confirms my point that you do not
> understand but often misrepresent the opposition. The
> disappointment is that some are still obsessed with the old way of
> thinking, including yourself.

So you admit that you knew it was genocide, but you still think it's
perfectly ok anyway. I guess I'm still obsessed with the old way of
thinking that ideological genocide, ethnic cleansing, torture, rape
and mass slaughter are wrong.

I know that I'm out of date, and I'm not blessed like you with the
modern way of thinking that genocide is perfectly OK if it's in the
service of a bloody, brutal Communist dictatorship. You certainly are
very modern, and you fit in very well with the morals of today's
Democratic Party.

Sorry to be so old-fashioned.

(11-03-2020, 10:23 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > It's the same as today, where the mainstream media and the
> Democrats are suppressing news of the antifa-blm fascist violence
> and news of Biden's criminality. You can find all of the above
> information online, but you have to search hard for it.

(11-03-2020, 11:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: > My guess is that the reporting on violence and the Biden
> criminality were attempts at October surprises by ideological
> sources. They were not considered significant enough to cover by
> the main stream press. Again, this is your problem with
> understanding motivation and ideological prejudice. You wanted to
> believe this garbage and to convince Earth 1. I was going to wait
> a few months to see if anything real developed on it and call your
> false prophecies on it after a reasonable time. I figure it was
> invented to sway the election and will disappear when it is over.
> Likely optimistic. Some will never learn. To verify, check a
> mirror.

It's ridiculous to say that the mainstream media and twitter have the
right to censor news of Biden's criminality or cities burning down
just because it's October. That's important news in any month, and
you would never say the same about news that favored Biden.

You think it's perfectly OK to censor news that favors Trump. You
think it's perfectly OK for the North Vietnamese Communists to commit
genocide because of some ill-defined "élites".

You have absolutely no morals and no ethics. And the rest of your
post is completely full of crap, like most of your stuff.

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-03-2020, 03:37 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So you admit that you knew it was genocide, but you still think it's perfectly ok anyway.  I guess I'm still obsessed with the old way of thinking that ideological genocide, ethnic cleansing, torture, rape and mass slaughter are wrong.

I know that I'm out of date, and I'm not blessed like you with the modern way of thinking that genocide is perfectly OK if it's in the service of a bloody, brutal Communist dictatorship.  You certainly are very modern, and you fit in very well with the morals of today's Democratic Party.

Sorry to be so old-fashioned.

I din't say it was OK. That was you misrepresenting the motive of those who don't share your ideology. Genocide, ethnic cleansing, torture, rape and mass slaughter is the old tribal way of thinking. I don't think it right. If you think I do, you have not been paying attention. Perhaps. you are just too biased to consider the possibility.

I just don't think the West was in a reasonable position to stop it. They weren't going to come in on the side of the north in exchange for them giving up tribal thinking. It was not going to happen. It just was too large a jump from the Domino Theory. Nixon just wanted out.

Yes, I am sorry you are obsessed with tribal thinking. Generational Dynamics is full of tribal thinking, of xenophobia, genocide and supposedly inevitable crisis war. The pattern has shifted but you are still with the Industrial Age pattern. You shouldn't be such an advocate of the old pattern as you see the results of it: genocide, ethnic cleansing, torture, rape and mass slaughter.

(11-03-2020, 03:37 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: It's ridiculous to say that the mainstream media and twitter have the right to censor news of Biden's criminality or cities burning down just because it's October.  That's important news in any month, and you would never say the same about news that favored Biden.

You think it's perfectly OK to censor news that favors Trump.

Trump has every reason to vilify Biden. If Fox or the White House thought the stories had any chance of sticking, even if just long enough for the vote to take place, they would have amplified it. What is the point of hiding a real October Surprise? The coastal media would have had no choice but react, and I would have heard of it. Fox and Trump didn't pick it up. I suspect that is because it would disappear under the slightest bit of fact checking. It works best in the shadows with the gullible fanatics. That would be you. This is conjecture. I was going to wait for a bit after the election was over to see if the allegations had legs, but I would be surprised if they did.

It would not be improper to ignore something so far out that the people who would benefit from it are ignoring it too.

I have seen a bit of ideological thinking. If something agrees with the ideology, ideologues will credit the sources as real even if no one else does. Trump and Fox take advantage of this tendency as much as anyone. Still, even they have some sense of protecting their reputations. If they wouldn't touch it, it must be flawed indeed.

(11-03-2020, 03:37 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: You have absolutely no morals and no ethics.  And the rest of your post is completely full of crap, like most of your stuff.

I could say much the same for your lack of ethics. You misrepresent those who oppose your ideology commonly. In doing so, you lie. In clinging to the old values, most of your stuff is bad. Only those deeply committed to your ideology would give it the time of day. Your answer to criticism is to lie, laugh or do anything but apply logic, to attempt to justify your misrepresentations and lies.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 04-Nov-2020 World View: Election

The vote counting has not yet determined who will be president, but
the Congress will be pretty much unchanged, which means that policies
will remain pretty much the same no matter who is president, which is
what I expect from a Generational Dynamics analysis, as I've said
recently and several times in the past.

The election appears to be a repudiation of Donald Trump's tweets,
which many people find offensive, and is a complete repudiation of the
loony left socialist agenda, which scared many people to death.

If Biden wins, the only major change will be in the rhetoric coming
out of Washington. But the policies will be largely the same,
changing only on the margins.

At least three issues remain from the campaign:

First, the antifa-blm fascists will not be satisfied with the
inconclusive results, and they'll almost certainly regroup and resume.

Second, the evidence of criminal behavior by the Biden family has
become enormous in the last month, and there's an official FBI
investigation, and Lindsey Graham will continue the investigation in
the Senate. If Biden becomes president, he will have to face a major
criminal scandal from day one of his presidency.

Third, there are serious concerns about Biden's competency, given that
he has exhibited signs of dementia. These concerns will continue if
he has to govern.

There are two major Generational Dynamics predictions that are unchanged.

First, the size of the global debt bubble continues to grow uncontrollably.
We don't know when that bubble will burst, but we can say for certain
that it will burst when everyone least expects it, and cause a massive
international financial crisis.

"If something can't go on forever, then it won't."

Second, the Chinese Communists continue to become increasingly
nationalistic and belligerent in several places -- on the border with
India, in the South China Sea, against Taiwan, against Japan, against
Russia's Far East, and elsewhere. At some point, someone will do
something stupid and that will lead to a major war. We don't know
when that will happen, but we can say for certain that a conflict will
break out when everyone least expects it, and cause a major war.

One interesting issue is that China, Iran, and other countries are
holding off on various actions pending the results of the American
election. It will be interesting to see what happens when the
election is finally decided.

[Warren Dew]

(11-03-2020, 03:37 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So you admit that you knew it was genocide, but you still think it's
perfectly ok anyway.  I guess I'm still obsessed with the old way of
thinking that ideological genocide, ethnic cleansing, torture, rape
and mass slaughter are wrong.

I know that I'm out of date, and I'm not blessed like you with the
modern way of thinking that genocide is perfectly OK if it's in the
service of a bloody, brutal Communist dictatorship.  You certainly are
very modern, and you fit in very well with the morals of today's
Democratic Party.

To be fair, that's what happens in a Crisis era, is it not?  Does generational dynamics say whether both sides end up eventually adopting this attitude, or can it be only one side?  I presume if it's only one side, it's the side that wins.

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-04-2020, 05:26 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(11-03-2020, 03:37 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So you admit that you knew it was genocide, but you still think it's perfectly ok anyway.  I guess I'm still obsessed with the old way of thinking that ideological genocide, ethnic cleansing, torture, rape and mass slaughter are wrong.

I know that I'm out of date, and I'm not blessed like you with the modern way of thinking that genocide is perfectly OK if it's in the service of a bloody, brutal Communist dictatorship.  You certainly are very modern, and you fit in very well with the morals of today's Democratic Party.

To be fair, that's what happens in a Crisis era, is it not?  Does generational dynamics say whether both sides end up eventually adopting this attitude, or can it be only one side?  I presume if it's only one side, it's the side that wins.

It was what happened in the Industrial Age, when everybody assumed a crisis war was necessary to institute change, when tribal thinking was pretty much universal.  With nukes and proxy wars making violence of questionable wisdom, another pattern is developing.  Still, as long as you stick with minor powers, the questionable wisdom of tribal thinking works sort of, once everyone forgets what happened last time, more genocide, ethnic cleansing, torture, rape and mass slaughter.  I just think there are better alternatives than more tribal thinking.

[John J. Xenakis]

(11-04-2020, 05:26 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(11-03-2020, 03:37 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So you admit that you knew it was genocide, but you still think it's
perfectly ok anyway.  I guess I'm still obsessed with the old way of
thinking that ideological genocide, ethnic cleansing, torture, rape
and mass slaughter are wrong.

I know that I'm out of date, and I'm not blessed like you with the
modern way of thinking that genocide is perfectly OK if it's in the
service of a bloody, brutal Communist dictatorship.  You certainly are
very modern, and you fit in very well with the morals of today's
Democratic Party.

To be fair, that's what happens in a Crisis era, is it not?  Does generational dynamics say whether both sides end up eventually adopting this attitude, or can it be only one side?  I presume if it's only one side, it's the side that wins.

I don't understand this question.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 04-Nov-2020 World View: Lawsuits

Guest Wrote:> Do you think there is any substance behind Trump's legal
> challenges? Is it a case of a sore loser or will there be a
> Bush-esque outcome?

> I'm not a fan of postal votes as they are open to abuse. It will
> be interesting to see if the decisions taken by state officials to
> expand voting opportunities for this election have created genuine
> flaws in the system which have been exploited.

This afternoon, Biden gave a speech saying that he would not declare
victory, but that he would soon have enough electoral votes to declare
victory. That seems to be true.

The Trump campaign is launching about 20 lawsuits to challenge the
results. One of them is in Wisconsin, which the Washington Post
pollsters said that Trump would lose by 17 points. It turns out that
Trump is behind by a mere half a point. The Washington Post, directed
by the Democratic Party, has been publishing false news for months,
whether about the Mueller investigation, the Ukraine impeachment, the
multi-city riots, or the Biden criminality investigation, and now it's
obvious that it has also been publishing phony poll results. So it's
quite reasonable to believe that, under the direction of the
Democratic Party, Wisconsin has been manufacturing phony ballots
favoring Biden. At least, that's what the Trump administration
thinks.

So this is going to get very ugly and could last a long time. The
only good thing that can be said about this massive change to allow
random mail-in ballots is that by the time of the 2022 election, the
kinks might be worked out, and the rules will be defined.

[pbrower2a]

(11-04-2020, 06:36 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 04-Nov-2020 World View: Lawsuits

Guest Wrote:>   Do you think there is any substance behind Trump's legal
>   challenges? Is it a case of a sore loser or will there be a
>   Bush-esque outcome?

>   I'm not a fan of postal votes as they are open to abuse. It will
>   be interesting to see if the decisions taken by state officials to
>   expand voting opportunities for this election have created genuine
>   flaws in the system which have been exploited.

This afternoon, Biden gave a speech saying that he would not declare
victory, but that he would soon have enough electoral votes to declare
victory.  That seems to be true.

The Trump campaign is launching about 20 lawsuits to challenge the
results.  One of them is in Wisconsin, which the Washington Post
pollsters said that Trump would lose by 17 points.  It turns out that
Trump is behind by a mere half a point.  The Washington Post, directed
by the Democratic Party, has been publishing false news for months,
whether about the Mueller investigation, the Ukraine impeachment, the
multi-city riots, or the Biden criminality investigation, and now it's
obvious that it has also been publishing phony poll results.  So it's
quite reasonable to believe that, under the direction of the
Democratic Party, Wisconsin has been manufacturing phony ballots
favoring Biden.  At least, that's what the Trump administration
thinks.

One wins the ten electoral votes of Wisconsin whether one wins the state by 40% or by forty votes. Polling from before the election is no longer relevant. It is usually good for making predictions. 

People aligned with Donald Trump and his part of the political spectrum, the semi-fascist Right (not to be confused with genuine conservatives that you surely remember, like Gerald Ford and George H W Bush who showed scrupulous respect for human rights, due process, and integrity in communications. The semi-fascist Right which is what the Trump-era Republican Party was (and I am assuming that Trump loses fair and square at this point) repulses me as the old sort of conservative doesn't. The demagogue who becomes a despot, whether Hugo Chavez, Robert Mugabe, or Donald Trump is horrible no matter what his ideology. I prefer that our politicians do service to voters or potential voters instead of sticking it to those that they expect to never vote for them. As basic decency I do not accept bad things done to other people just because those people are not in my group. I need not be a Jew to see antisemitism repugnant or gay to consider gay-bashing a hideous crime.  

The most charitable explanation that one can give of Donald Trump is that he is erratic or crazy. I do not accept this. This man is an evil genius who knows how to exploit visceral concerns and primitive impulses. Maybe I despise him for seeking to appeal to something I distrust in myself but little else. Trump disparages values that I consider essential to personal goodness, and I do not fully trust my gut feelings.  It's easy to see his hideous grammar, spelling, taste, and violations of logical convention as stupid. If he is dumb he is dumb like a fox -- cunning and resourceful in appealing to the worst in human character. Maybe he better knows what he is doing than I have given him credit for even if I hold it all in contempt. 

...If you have reasonable cause to believe that the Wisconsin Democratic Party has been fabricating fraudulent ballots in a modern version of stuffing the ballot box, then I suggest that you contact the FBI, which would investigate any administrative fraud in voting. As the late Mike Royko said in mocking a crooked Chicago pol, "Make sure that if you rely entirely upon fake ballots that you have enough for the opponent's family and his campaign manager unless you want the FBI snooping around". Note well that the FBI typically insists upon convincing evidence or eyewitness testimony, and not mere hearsay before investigating a wrong-doing target. 

Donald Trump is one of the most inveterate liars since Josef Goebbels. Again, if one seeks to convince people to do some act of self-ruin for personal gain or gratification, then one must lie.   

Quote:So this is going to get very ugly and could last a long time.  The
only good thing that can be said about this massive change to allow
random mail-in ballots is that by the time of the 2022 election, the
kinks might be worked out, and the rules will be defined.

One of the most infamous statements that I ever heard from Donald Trump was "I love low-information voters". Were I a pol I would rather inform than deceive. This man appeals to the gullible, exploiting gullibility of suckers. I have seen him on television and have come to realize that I want to have dealings with him about as much I want unprotected sex with someone with AIDS.

Politicians with good personal character ordinarily a "kinder, gentler" political culture. George H W Bush may have been just as reactionary as Trump, but he was not the sort to stir up domestic unrest as Trump. (Incompetence can also have that effect, of course). 

Antifa was no problem when Obama was President. Obama was more likely to promote deals than confrontations. Although Black Live Matter did not exist until Trump became President, I can easily imagine how Obama would have dealt with Black Lives Matter. Trump is the antithesis of a peace-maker. 

...Donald Trump is now (as I last heard) six electoral votes away from becoming a one-term President, and so far as I can tell it is a matter of dotting the i's and crossing the t's as cautious formality.  When it comes to something so important as the election of a President I will settle for rigid formality as a defense against a mistake. Statewide elections are made when either the results are obvious (Trump wasn't going to win Vermont and Biden wasn't going to win Wyoming) or when in a close election the counters have fewer votes left than the margin. 

Give us liberals some credit. Most of us had good cause to loathe Donald Trump. He's easy to mock for his lack of obvious virtues. People can like him only because they like his agenda or adore rogues. After all, there were people who admired Wild West outlaws and robbers like John Dillinger and the Barrow-Parker gang; there are Mafia groupies. I despise his agenda, and I see no good to come from rogues.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 05-Nov-2020 World View: It's almost over

As of this moment, it appears that the election counting is almost
over, and Biden will be president, the Republicans will lose one seat
in the Senate but still control it, and the Democrats will lose
several seats in the House, but still control it. The stock markets
are cheering because this means political gridlock.

There are still several states in play, with vote-counting still in
progress, so it's still possible that Trump could win, or that the
Senate could flip, but those are considered unlikely.

Two states, Arizona and Nevada, could be called today, and Biden is
expected to win both, and the presidency. If either one flips to
Trump, then a Biden win is still likely, but less certain, and will
depend on other states, especially Pennsylvania.

It's not expected that the legal battles will change the results.

[pbrower2a]

(11-05-2020, 08:07 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 05-Nov-2020 World View: It's almost over

As of this moment, it appears that the election counting is almost
over, and Biden will be president, the Republicans will lose one seat
in the Senate but still control it, and the Democrats will lose
several seats in the House, but still control it.  The stock markets
are cheering because this means political gridlock.

There are still several states in play, with vote-counting still in
progress, so it's still possible that Trump could win, or that the
Senate could flip, but those are considered unlikely.

Two states, Arizona and Nevada, could be called today, and Biden is
expected to win both, and the presidency.  If either one flips to
Trump, then a Biden win is still likely, but less certain, and will
depend on other states, especially Pennsylvania.

It's not expected that the legal battles will change the results.

Absentee and mail-in ballots are just as valid as in-person ballots, and states have considerable leeway on much of their conduct of the elections. Changes in electoral laws, so long as they do not reduce the vote through obvious discrimination can be made before the election. States own and control the electoral devices and have the responsibility for an accurate count. States can allocate electoral votes as winner-take-all or as Maine and Nebraska do. two for the state at large and as the districts vote. That is fine for those two states that have two or three very different districts. For states significantly different such would be more troublesome.  State legislatures typically draw Congressional boundaries, and in most states, Congressional districts have no legal meaning except for Congressional representation. If I drive in Indiana or Ohio, I see county lines delineated  on roads with signs, but I have no idea when I cross the border of a Congressional District. The road atlas and road map that I use never show those, but they do show county lines. 

What the states cannot do is something discriminatory in violation of Constitutional enumeration of voting rights or some blatant distortion of the result (such as the Governor calling the election unilaterally or the state legislature voting on who wins).

I have my own idea on how to divide the electoral votes of a state, but it is a complicated system that begins with two at large, with the rest subdivided in proportion to the state's vote. Let us say that Smith ®, Jones (D), and Williams (I) are running in a state with 22 electoral votes (there is no such states, but that makes the math easy). The state splits 52.1 for Smith ®, 44.5 for Jones (D), and 5.6 for Williams (I) after one has cast off the votes of fourth-party and other nominees who could never win 5% of the vote. Two electoral votes, suggesting the US Senate, go to Smith. Thus 

2 Smith, 20 unallocated.

Now we allocate the residue of the other 20. For every full share of the vote that can be represented by a portion of the total vote (5%, but not a partial share) the nominee getting that share gets an electoral vote for each total share that he or she could get. Thus of this residue one gets 

1 Williams
8 Jones
10 Smith.

With the two at-large votes one gets 

1 Williams
8 Jones
12 Smith.

But what of the other partial vote? That goes to the winner of the  plurality. So I have an allocation:

13 Smith, 8 Jones, 1 Williams.

This, I think, would be better than what we now have. There is still a strong incentive to win a state outright, but politicians would not get to fully ignore large minorities in a state as they do in our current system. 

Really-small states would have to divide their districts, if at all, based on Congressional districts.

........

Even tiny pluralities in a large tipping-point state that decides the election (Florida in 2000) can be definitive.

[David Horn]

(11-05-2020, 08:07 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 05-Nov-2020 World View: It's almost over

As of this moment, it appears that the election counting is almost over, and Biden will be president, the Republicans will lose one seat in the Senate but still control it, and the Democrats will lose several seats in the House, but still control it.  The stock markets are cheering because this means political gridlock.

There is something uniquely bad about market economics that sees political failure, and gridlock guarantees it, as a huge plus for capitalists.  We're less and less on the same team. Nick Hanauer is right.  Eventually, the trampled-upon will take revenge, and it won't be restrained.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 05-Nov-2020 World View: Political gridlock

(11-05-2020, 08:07 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > ** 05-Nov-2020 World View: It's almost over

> As of this moment, it appears that the election counting is almost
> over, and Biden will be president, the Republicans will lose one
> seat in the Senate but still control it, and the Democrats will
> lose several seats in the House, but still control it. The stock
> markets are cheering because this means political gridlock.

(11-05-2020, 12:20 PM)David Horn Wrote: > There is something uniquely bad about market economics that sees
> political failure, and gridlock guarantees it, as a huge plus for
> capitalists. We're less and less on the same team. Nick Hanauer
> is right. Eventually, the trampled-upon will take revenge, and it
> won't be restrained. https://nickhanauer.com/

Lol! Unlike those glorious Communist economies, like the ones in
North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela.

As I'm working on my Vietnam book, here's a statement that Communist
Party Secretary-General at the time, Truong Chinh, said in 1986:

Quote:> "We have made mistakes due to ‘leftist infantilism’,
> idealism, and to the contravention of the objective laws of
> socio-economic development. These mistakes were manifested in
> the...[emphasis given to] developing heavy industry on a large
> scale beyond our practical capacity...[maintaining] the
> bureaucratically centralised mechanism of economic management
> based on state subsidies with a huge superstructure which
> overburdens the infrastructure. As a result, we relied mostly on
> foreign aid for our subsistence."

Socialism collapsed in China in the 1970s, in Vietnam in the 1980s, in
the Soviet Union in the 1990s, and in Cuba in the 2010s. It's a
near-perfect record.

But not completely perfect. Socialism is still alive and well in the
socialist paradises of North Korea and Venezuela. Nobody is
trampled-upon there, huh?

Even today, the Chinese people in "Communist" China have about 1/4th
of the income of the same Chinese people living in free market Taiwan.
Those poor Taiwanese people are really being trampled-upon.

But oh, let a capitalist economy take a short breather from its rapid
growth through gridlock, then the trampled-upon will take revenge, as
the antifa-blm fascists have been doing.

[pbrower2a]

(11-05-2020, 03:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 05-Nov-2020 World View: Political gridlock

(11-05-2020, 08:07 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: >   ** 05-Nov-2020 World View: It's almost over

>   As of this moment, it appears that the election counting is almost
>   over, and Biden will be president, the Republicans will lose one
>   seat in the Senate but still control it, and the Democrats will
>   lose several seats in the House, but still control it. The stock
>   markets are cheering because this means political gridlock.

(11-05-2020, 12:20 PM)David Horn Wrote: >   There is something uniquely bad about market economics that sees
>   political failure, and gridlock guarantees it, as a huge plus for
>   capitalists.  We're less and less on the same team. Nick Hanauer
>   is right.  Eventually, the trampled-upon will take revenge, and it
>   won't be restrained.  https://nickhanauer.com/

Lol!  Unlike those glorious Communist economies, like the ones in
North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela.

Tell me what Democrat believes in turning ownership and operation of the bulk of business to the government or believes in central planning. A social market economy is something very different. Example: as Czechoslovakia cast off the 'socialist' system it sold off the productive sector to establish a welfare state modeled after the German Federal Republic, which does much well.

Quote:As I'm working on my Vietnam book, here's a statement that Communist
Party Secretary-General at the time, Truong Chinh, said in 1986:

Quote:>   "We have made mistakes due to ‘leftist infantilism’,
>   idealism, and to the contravention of the objective laws of
>   socio-economic development. These mistakes were manifested in
>   the...[emphasis given to] developing heavy industry on a large
>   scale beyond our practical capacity...[maintaining] the
>   bureaucratically centralised mechanism of economic management
>   based on state subsidies with a huge superstructure which
>   overburdens the infrastructure. As a result, we relied mostly on
>   foreign aid for our subsistence."

Socialism collapsed in China in the 1970s, in Vietnam in the 1980s, in
the Soviet Union in the 1990s, and in Cuba in the 2010s.  It's a
near-perfect record.

So if 'socialism' collapses, then the problem with a regime such as that of the People's Republic of China is that it is a dictatorship and not that it has adopted significant characteristics of capitalism. 

Quote:But not completely perfect.  Socialism is still alive and well in the
socialist paradises of North Korea and Venezuela.  Nobody is
trampled-upon there, huh?

North Korea is probably the worst place in the world that is not a war zone or a near-war zone. North Korea has no liberal apologists. Venezuela is still fairly new to its 'Bolivarian' socialism, whatever that is, that it has its large number of True Believers. 

Quote:Even today, the Chinese people in "Communist" China have about 1/4th
of the income of the same Chinese people living in free market Taiwan.
Those poor Taiwanese people are really being trampled-upon.

Free markets work far better than do despots, central planners, or entrenched monopolists. With the monopolists come the political hacks and bureaucratic enforcers who need Big Government to mitigate the inequities and protect the monopolist from competition.  

Quote:But oh, let a capitalist economy take a short breather from its rapid
growth through gridlock, then the trampled-upon will take revenge, as
the antifa-blm fascists have been doing.

The American economy had a stronger and more sustained era of economic growth under Barack Obama than under Donald Trump. OK, it is difficult to keep any eight-year bull market going. The economy has become a far rocker road under Trump, and he has certainly mangled the economy due to his bungled response to COVID-19.

Antifa (Anti-Fascist Action) is shady... but we are all anti-fascist, are we not? Black Lives Matter is about ending some bad police work, and not about giving any equivalent of a "Get Out of Jail Free" card to criminal offenders. Black Lives Matters attracts even people who have a general respect for law and order...

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-05-2020, 12:20 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-05-2020, 08:07 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: As of this moment, it appears that the election counting is almost over, and Biden will be president, the Republicans will lose one seat in the Senate but still control it, and the Democrats will lose several seats in the House, but still control it.  The stock markets are cheering because this means political gridlock.

There is something uniquely bad about market economics that sees political failure, and gridlock guarantees it, as a huge plus for capitalists.  We're less and less on the same team. Nick Hanauer is right.  Eventually, the trampled-upon will take revenge, and it won't be restrained.

It seems to me not hard to understand.  The Republicans have had the elite vote forever.  They have flip flopped from being the isolationist and abolitionist party to the strong on defense party with the KKK.  Still, they have always been the party of the robber barons.  They see Trump out, with his disastrous Covid policies.  You can not get the economy going without attacking the bug, which Trump stubbornly refused to do.  You have at least one house of Congress still in Republican hands, which will make it hard for Biden to go all out with his elites shall pay their fair share pledge.  That is a big win from the elite's point of view.  Without the funds to pay for the Democratic agenda, no agenda.

That is not all that is Republican, however.  That is the elites.  The red alliance includes the elites, the racists, those who would enforce their religious views using the government on everybody, those who value their guns, those who value Voodoo Economics, with it's guarantee of stimulation in good times and bad, which guarantees two good terms then disaster, those who think you can keep cutting domestic spending without hurting the worker, those who would spend lots of money on defense when you are getting less and less out of using brute force...

The blue folks have not convinced all of the above groups to flip in a consistent way.  The believers in each issue still believe.  Some of the above may fade with demographics, but it is not enough to convince those dedicated to one or another principle to switch.

This time around we had Trump to unite against.  This was due do Trump being absurdly bad, not that any of the basic red values have changed.  

The hallmark of the crisis is supposed to be solving problems.  This is not going to happen if each faction seeks to totally block the other.  The goal out to be to find a solution that doesn't get in the way of what the other guys believe with fervor.  Too much fervor.  Too much going against the other guy.  Too much insistence on taking the other down.

If the Republicans stick with a policy of obstructionism, if the senate blocks any attempt to reform racist systematic policing, if the newly conservative court starts legislating from the bench, taking down things like health care and a woman's control of her own body, things could still get intense.  The red can believe thoroughly in such things.

[pbrower2a]

(11-05-2020, 12:20 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-05-2020, 08:07 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 05-Nov-2020 World View: It's almost over

As of this moment, it appears that the election counting is almost over, and Biden will be president, the Republicans will lose one seat in the Senate but still control it, and the Democrats will lose several seats in the House, but still control it.  The stock markets are cheering because this means political gridlock.

There is something uniquely bad about market economics that sees political failure, and gridlock guarantees it, as a huge plus for capitalists.  We're less and less on the same team. Nick Hanauer is right.  Eventually, the trampled-upon will take revenge, and it won't be restrained.

The contemporary United States really is a plutocracy. The economic elites prefer that we have at least enough democracy to not take up arms against monopolistic gougers, bureaucratic exploiters as nasty as the Soviet nomenklatura, and (if one lives where there is opportunity for high pay for people who can live well no matter where they are) rapacious landlords who impose a private tax upon tenants. America remains a paradise for tycoons (OK, we need that if we are to get innovation of the sorts that we associate with John Rockefeller, Thomas Edison, James Cash Penney, the Skaggs brothers, Ray Kroc, Sam Walton, and Bill Gates. It is better that we have a few hyper-rich who make crazy money than that we be without their innovative businesses. These people did not make their wealth by bleeding the national treasury, which is far better than what some lunatic or fanatic as a central planner of a 'socialist' economy. The great fault with 'socialist' economies was that they could at most be 'me-too' on any technological innovation (except perhaps in weapons technology with MiG's and AK-47's, the latter that the US Armed Forces have bought for the post-Saddam government in Iraq).

In the long view I am tempted to believe that Big Business makes Big Government necessary as an enforcer of the will of those elites, for supplying needs for those capitalists (roads for the auto and petroleum industry), and for mitigating the effects of capitalism in displacing people in its allegedly-necessary "creative destruction". A mad system can promote economic growth with great human suffering; a sane system insists upon mitigating human suffering. That is the difference between democracy and dictatorship should the dictator have no moral compass other than strengthening the economy that he needs. As William F. Buckley put it, he would rather trust a random selection of people out of the phone book than a clique of Harvard professors with the public welfare. Democracy is ideally responsible to the moral values of the people, however faulty those values may be. 

Democracy is no better than the People, but what else are you to trust? Maybe we have been paying too much attention to video games instead of connecting to people in nursing homes (don't blame COVID-19; that was so before the plague) or the liberal arts that ideally make people wise enough to make complex decisions of moral import. Note well that however flawed it is, the School of Hard Knocks welcomes all who get little, inadequate, or flawed education. That is part of how the generational cycle works: the sort of corrupt speculative boom of the 1920's proceeded because the Gilded who knew better were no longer around to thwart it, and Americans who learned the hardest job lesson possible in the Great Depression that speculative bubbles always implode catastrophically were able to thwart a replay until the last of them had lost their influence due to death or extreme old age. Then came the real estate boom of the Double-Zero Decade and the inevitable panic. At least we had deposit insurance and Barack Obama understood history, some of which he learned from GI grandparents. It is a good idea to learn from ancestors.    

America has recently been rifted between people who see plutocrats as the exploiters and intellectuals as a humiliating presence -- even if the "intellectual" is 'only' a K-12 teacher who cringes when hearing bad grammar, f-bombs without obvious justification (OK, I shouted one on the phone as I got a message from a synthesized voice telling me that it was from "Windows" and told me that I had a computer virus), and blatant superstition and pseudoscience.  We will need to be more competent at technology, but we will also need to have more  humanistic values. If I must choose between the advanced technology and the humanistic values in a conflict between those, then I'll go with the humanistic values. I have seen household settings of the Victorian era, and as long as one was not poor, life seemed comfortable enough. This said, the marked difference between America before the Second World War and after the Second World War was between the certainty of poverty for the vast majority of Americans no matter what they did and the much-more widespread opportunity for Americans after the Second World War.

OK... the second-biggest story for most Americans in 2020, after the Plague of the Donald Trump Presidency, is the political decision that we Americans have been making. Joe Biden has taken leads in Georgia as the lawful votes are running out, and that is the best time in which to have a lead in an election -- no matter how small the lead. 537 votes were enough votes in one state to decide Florida in 2000, and the number could be even smaller in Georgia. He has also taken a lead in the popular vote in Pennsylvania as the votes rapidly dwindle. 98% of the vote is in in Pennsylvania, and 99% is in in Georgia. The only question may be of some military votes that must be accepted late with the appropriate franks (mail from soldiers is free to the soldier). I'm guessing that many of our Armed Services heroes who have been standing up for American interests contrary to the folly of the current President have sent their ballots in in ample time, and that even in Georgia and Pennsylvania, the bulk of those are counted. 

There apparently are no more votes coming in, so what you see at the end looks like what you will get.

[David Horn]

(11-05-2020, 10:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The blue folks have not convinced all of the above groups to flip in a consistent way.  The believers in each issue still believe.  Some of the above may fade with demographics, but it is not enough to convince those dedicated to one or another principle to switch.

This time around we had Trump to unite against.  This was due do Trump being absurdly bad, not that any of the basic red values have changed.  

The hallmark of the crisis is supposed to be solving problems.  This is not going to happen if each faction seeks to totally block the other.  The goal out to be to find a solution that doesn't get in the way of what the other guys believe with fervor.  Too much fervor.  Too much going against the other guy.  Too much insistence on taking the other down.

If the Republicans stick with a policy of obstructionism, if the senate blocks any attempt to reform racist systematic policing, if the newly conservative court starts legislating from the bench, taking down things like health care and a woman's control of her own body, things could still get intense.  The red can believe thoroughly in such things.

The Blue folks have had negative results with the Trumpists.  Don't try to convince them, it merely motivates them to oppose, oppose, oppose!  We have COVID hot spots in overwhelmingly Trump areas, and they go on their merry way making things even worse.  Hospitals, such as they are in rural areas, are already overwhelmed. It's the libs fault!  Nevermind that they only exist because the Dems finally passed Medicare expansion two years ago.

The only potential reversal is something so traumatic that it can't be ignored, or the death of the Boomers.  Our age group is the flame in these rural areas.  I don't see it passing until we do too.  The Red Prophets are still Prophets, and they aren't going to stop.

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-07-2020, 07:57 AM)David Horn Wrote: The Blue folks have had negative results with the Trumpists.  Don't try to convince them, it merely motivates them to oppose, oppose, oppose!  We have COVID hot spots in overwhelmingly Trump areas, and they go on their merry way making things even worse.  Hospitals, such as they are in rural areas, are already overwhelmed. It's the libs fault!  Nevermind that they only exist because the Dems finally passed Medicare expansion two years ago.

The only potential reversal is something so traumatic that it can't be ignored, or the death of the Boomers.  Our age group is the flame in these rural areas.  I don't see it passing until we do too.  The Red Prophets are still Prophets, and they aren't going to stop.

I’ve been optimistically looking for a principle that would lead us from the argumentative unravelling mindset to the practical problem solving crisis.  What I finally came up with was freedom against tyranny.  Freedom is letting each individual make their own choice.  Tyranny is using the government to force one culture’s choice on the other.

Obviously, freedom is preferable to tyranny.  In one case, the right to bear arms is a choice a tyrannical government would take away.  In another, the woman’s right to control her own body could be taken away.  In another, a person’s skin tone might take away his right for equal justice.

The red and blue do have distinctly different cultures.  The path to freedom means they should not try to impose their culture on the other.  If Biden attempts to find a way to solve things, to stop the conflict between the two cultures, he could do worse than adopt this principle.  If he takes sides and advocates the blue suppressing the red, it will be more of the same.

[David Horn]

(11-07-2020, 03:52 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(11-07-2020, 07:57 AM)David Horn Wrote: The Blue folks have had negative results with the Trumpists.  Don't try to convince them, it merely motivates them to oppose, oppose, oppose!  We have COVID hot spots in overwhelmingly Trump areas, and they go on their merry way making things even worse.  Hospitals, such as they are in rural areas, are already overwhelmed. It's the libs fault!  Nevermind that they only exist because the Dems finally passed Medicare expansion two years ago.

The only potential reversal is something so traumatic that it can't be ignored, or the death of the Boomers.  Our age group is the flame in these rural areas.  I don't see it passing until we do too.  The Red Prophets are still Prophets, and they aren't going to stop.

I’ve been optimistically looking for a principle that would lead us from the argumentative unravelling mindset to the practical problem solving crisis.  What I finally came up with was freedom against tyranny.  Freedom is letting each individual make their own choice.  Tyranny is using the government to force one culture’s choice on the other.

Obviously, freedom is preferable to tyranny.  In one case, the right to bear arms is a choice a tyrannical government would take away.  In another, the woman’s right to control her own body could be taken away.  In another, a person’s skin tone might take away his right for equal justice.

The red and blue do have distinctly different cultures.  The path to freedom means they should not try to impose their culture on the other.  If Biden attempts to find a way to solve things, to stop the conflict between the two cultures, he could do worse than adopt this principle.  If he takes sides and advocates the blue suppressing the red, it will be more of the same.

A libertarian solution is never going to work.  On a fiscal level, it's rule by oligarch, instead of government.  On a social level, it's only feasible in a world where religion can be set aside (maybe some day, but not now), and where your freedom doesn't imperil me and mine (which is the essence of the gun issue in cities).  Those are irreconcilable for now -- maybe forever in a complex nation like ours.  

I think we've elected trauma as our motivator, since neither side can accept the legitimacy of the other.  The GD-WWII cycle created group cohesion; it's the one case where we achieved it.  Even the ACW, with all the devastation and misery, left the adversaries in place and still in opposition.  Our sclerotic governmental structure is certainly part of it too.  But, so far, we're not making much progress, nor have we identified a viable alternative.  We can't be Canada; we can't be Sweden.

[Classic-Xer]

(11-09-2020, 11:00 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-07-2020, 03:52 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(11-07-2020, 07:57 AM)David Horn Wrote: The Blue folks have had negative results with the Trumpists.  Don't try to convince them, it merely motivates them to oppose, oppose, oppose!  We have COVID hot spots in overwhelmingly Trump areas, and they go on their merry way making things even worse.  Hospitals, such as they are in rural areas, are already overwhelmed. It's the libs fault!  Nevermind that they only exist because the Dems finally passed Medicare expansion two years ago.

The only potential reversal is something so traumatic that it can't be ignored, or the death of the Boomers.  Our age group is the flame in these rural areas.  I don't see it passing until we do too.  The Red Prophets are still Prophets, and they aren't going to stop.

I’ve been optimistically looking for a principle that would lead us from the argumentative unravelling mindset to the practical problem solving crisis.  What I finally came up with was freedom against tyranny.  Freedom is letting each individual make their own choice.  Tyranny is using the government to force one culture’s choice on the other.

Obviously, freedom is preferable to tyranny.  In one case, the right to bear arms is a choice a tyrannical government would take away.  In another, the woman’s right to control her own body could be taken away.  In another, a person’s skin tone might take away his right for equal justice.

The red and blue do have distinctly different cultures.  The path to freedom means they should not try to impose their culture on the other.  If Biden attempts to find a way to solve things, to stop the conflict between the two cultures, he could do worse than adopt this principle.  If he takes sides and advocates the blue suppressing the red, it will be more of the same.

A libertarian solution is never going to work.  On a fiscal level, it's rule by oligarch, instead of government.  On a social level, it's only feasible in a world where religion can be set aside (maybe some day, but not now), and where your freedom doesn't imperil me and mine (which is the essence of the gun issue in cities).  Those are irreconcilable for now -- maybe forever in a complex nation like ours.  

I think we've elected trauma as our motivator, since neither side can accept the legitimacy of the other.  The GD-WWII cycle created group cohesion; it's the one case where we achieved it.  Even the ACW, with all the devastation and misery, left the adversaries in place and still in opposition.  Our sclerotic governmental structure is certainly part of it too.  But, so far, we're not making much progress, nor have we identified a viable alternative.  We can't be Canada; we can't be Sweden.

You just supported rule by oligarch. I assume you weren't paying attention or assume that you were unable able to figure that out?  I guess we'll get to see if the blue oligarchs are any better than the blue politicians as far as ruling blue America these days. I think you guys did a wonderful job screwing yourselves this time around.