What will happen if Clinton is elected President

[MillsT_98]

What will happen if Hillary Clinton is elected president? I made this poll just like its parallel thread: "What would happen if Trump is elected president", with the same options.

[Kinser79]

First let me say that I highly doubt she will be elected. Her post convention bump was far lower than Trump's, and her unfavorablity is growing, also it is quite likely she will not fare well in the debates. Seriously Grouchy Commie Grandpa (Sanders) trounced her on a regular basis and he wasn't even really trying to hurt her. Trump won't be nearly as nice, and HRC's reputation as being a hard as nails political animal negates her gynocentric advantage.

Furthermore she's been running as Obama's third term thus far. As such it is likely that in the unlikely event that she is elected she will be an unsuccessful one term president. That of course assumes she isn't forced out for corruption, high crimes and misdemeanors (and the GOP Congress will be looking to take her out...Hillary Hunting is their pastime) impeachment or even health factors.

All of that said in over 200 years of having presidents only one has resigned, and two impeached (both unsuccessfully) and as such I doubt that would resign unless there was a Nixion level scandal (though she does make her own drama and reaps that karma) or she has a stroke or something on national TV.

That said I think it is telling that she's not had a press conference in 243/4 days....not good....not good at all.

[MillsT_98]

I would definitely disagree with you. Hillary will not be impeached (even if the Republicans try it will fail miserably). She is actually more honest and trustworthy than Trump, and definitely less dangerous than him (not to mention how unpredictable he is). With her being elected, she will try hard to push her progressive agenda, especially since the Democratic Party has been driven left by Sanders and the like. I'd be fine with her running as Obama's third term, because that's still better than Trump, but even so, I believe she will be a successful President.

[Kinser79]

(08-04-2016, 01:17 AM)MillsT_98 Wrote: I would definitely disagree with you. Hillary will not be impeached (even if the Republicans try it will fail miserably).

She could be impeached. Being removed from office is a different matter and the Republicans can't do it without 2/3rds of the senate, or 67 senators...which is a tall order. Filing articles of impeachment would be nothing if the GOP holds the house.

Quote: She is actually more honest and trustworthy than Trump, and definitely less dangerous than him (not to mention how unpredictable he is).

Really? In which dimension is this? She has a track record stretching back 40 years. And it is not good. And no I'm not your "traditional Republican" saying that. Gay, Atheist, Black Man here. In before Odin calls me an auntie Tom or something uncouth. Seriously the woman is a pathological liar, the very definition of the opposite of honest. And her lack of honesty makes her far more dangerous than Trump even if you think he's an unstable blowhard.

Quote:With her being elected, she will try hard to push her progressive agenda, especially since the Democratic Party has been driven left by Sanders and the like.

HRC is not a progressive, and the Democratic Party doesn't care about Sanders or those who supported Sanders. I would have thought that them openly rigging their primary system would have disabused you of that notion.

Quote:I'd be fine with her running as Obama's third term, because that's still better than Trump, but even so, I believe she will be a successful President.

Obama has been a very mediocre president. It would be like being Franklin Peirce's second term. Honestly I think the people are tired of the Democrats and their policies which have had 8 years to work and haven't worked. Unless of course the goal is to have no one working except at starvation wages and having hoards of Muslims shooting up/blowing up places in this country.

Let me be frank here, as someone who lives in the Orlando area, even if I wasn't gay that Muslim terrorist shooting up that night club would have sent me running to the GOP. The fact is that the economy is weaker now than it ever was under Bush (and he was objectively terrible...seriously somewhere the relatives of James Buchanan are breathing a sigh of relief that the President who directly betrayed the country is not the worst president ever now), the world is not safer now. Libya was broken by Obama/Clinton, Syria was broken by them, and they were using the neo-con playbook which is the playbook HRC has played from for 30 years--the same playbook that got us involved in that quagmire in Iraq.

With Hillary you get the status quo without Obama's personal gravitas and charisma, and in a pink Mao suit. Whoever picked out that outfit for her seriously needs to be fired.

[Ragnarök_62]

(08-04-2016, 12:10 AM)MillsT_98 Wrote: What will happen if Hillary Clinton is elected president? I made this poll just like its parallel thread: "What would happen if Trump is elected president", with the same options.

1.  More wars of choice.
2. Lots of shitty trade deals like TPP, TPIP, etc. get enacted.
3. She and Bubba will get even more rich from more political connections.
4. The White House becomes another tryst site for Bubba.

[Odin]

(08-04-2016, 12:40 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: First let me say that I highly doubt she will be elected.  Her post convention bump was far lower than Trump's, and her unfavorablity is growing, also it is quite likely she will not fare well in the debates.  Seriously Grouchy Commie Grandpa (Sanders) trounced her on a regular basis and he wasn't even really trying to hurt her.  Trump won't be nearly as nice, and HRC's reputation as being a hard as nails political animal negates her gynocentric advantage.

Furthermore she's been running as Obama's third term thus far.  As such it is likely that in the unlikely event that she is elected she will be an unsuccessful one term president.  That of course assumes she isn't forced out for corruption, high crimes and misdemeanors (and the GOP Congress will be looking to take her out...Hillary Hunting is their pastime) impeachment or even health factors.

All of that said in over 200 years of having presidents only one has resigned, and two impeached (both unsuccessfully) and as such I doubt that would resign unless there was a Nixion level scandal (though she does make her own drama and reaps that karma) or she has a stroke or something on national TV.

That said I think it is telling that she's not had a press conference in 243/4 days....not good....not good at all.

The Talking Yam is alienating people left and right, his shitting on the Khan family has been the last straw for many people. He's not going to win. You don't shit on gold star families and become president.

[playwrite]

(08-04-2016, 12:40 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: First let me say that I highly doubt she will be elected.  Her post convention bump was far lower than Trump's, and her unfavorablity is growing, also it is quite likely she will not fare well in the debates.  Seriously Grouchy Commie Grandpa (Sanders) trounced her on a regular basis and he wasn't even really trying to hurt her.  Trump won't be nearly as nice, and HRC's reputation as being a hard as nails political animal negates her gynocentric advantage.

Furthermore she's been running as Obama's third term thus far.  As such it is likely that in the unlikely event that she is elected she will be an unsuccessful one term president.  That of course assumes she isn't forced out for corruption, high crimes and misdemeanors (and the GOP Congress will be looking to take her out...Hillary Hunting is their pastime) impeachment or even health factors.

All of that said in over 200 years of having presidents only one has resigned, and two impeached (both unsuccessfully) and as such I doubt that would resign unless there was a Nixion level scandal (though she does make her own drama and reaps that karma) or she has a stroke or something on national TV.

That said I think it is telling that she's not had a press conference in 243/4 days....not good....not good at all.

You know what's great about you guys?  It's that the fantasy world you live in is so complete that one only needs to read your first sentences of any post to know that it's only worth reading further if one is interested in seeing just how deep the fantasies go.

Election Update: Clinton’s Bounce Appears Bigger Than Trump’s

I guess your excuse on the bump difference could be that its hard to tell if Clinton's surge in the polls is due to the convention or to Trump's meltdown in the last 48 hours.  On the other hand, given the rest of your fantasy horseshXt, it's pretty easy to attribute it to just more horseshXt spewing from the horse's mouth.  You should think about seeing a doctor about that.

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-04-2016, 10:41 AM)playwrite Wrote: I guess your excuse on the bump difference could be that its hard to tell if Clinton's surge in the polls is due to the convention or to Trump's meltdown in the last 48 hours.  On the other hand, given the rest of your fantasy horseshXt, it's pretty easy to attribute it to just more horseshXt spewing from the horse's mouth.  You should think about seeing a doctor about that.

I don't know. His fantasy world is much more consistent and thought out than other Trump followers, if no more connected with reality. I'm vaguely pleased at being able to take off from a slightly more coherent piece of alternate reality.

[pbrower2a]

Successful one-term President -- issues of age and health.

At worst she will be the new Bush I, with Obama as the liberal equivalent of Ronald Reagan.

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-04-2016, 11:37 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Are you at all aware we are now well within the 4T? You and Rags, with your dated worn out 3T scripts. Sheeesh!

We have not yet had a regeneracy.  Over use of the filibuster has prevented either side from instigating the major changes and trial and error period where the new culture is invented and given a test drive.

Those who are more into a clockwork and generation based interpretation of S&H can look at generation boundaries and see that we should in theory be in crisis mode.  I judge less by the calendar and more by how the society is working.  We're still in stagnation and endless debate mode.  We are not in transformation and change mode.

The books don't clearly define the 3T 4T border, not to my satisfaction at least.  They suggest we can go 4T before the regeneracy.  I'm not entirely happy with this.  S&H weren't entirely consistent in identifying where the boundary is.  Is it the big military catalyst, the Pearl Harbor, Fort Sumpter or Lexington / Concord and the following full mobilization?  Is it the election of the guy who will eventually be recognized as the Grey Champion, along with a Congress that will follow his lead?  Is it the publication of a transforming document, like the Declaration of Independence?

S&H weren't consistent in this.  I suspect they chose whatever event came closest to where their generation borders lined up.

This is in part an argument of definition, a disagreement on the meaning of words.  As such it is fairly trivial.  I personally am uncomfortable saying we are 8 years into a crisis and have not yet hit the regeneracy.  To me, it feels like we are still in stagnant disagreement.  Our politics are 3T politics.

Also, S&H turnings last a generation, on the order of 20 years.  The peak years of a crises or awakenings are shorter.  The intensity and fervor of the religious Great Awakening and Second Great Awakening couldn't be sustained for more than a few years.  The Summer of Love centered a similar period of only a few years when flower power was in full flower.  Similarly, it takes about four years for the United States to fully mobilize, learn how wars have to be fought given new technology, then crush any military opposition.  Crisis wars run about half a decade.  Thus it is plausible to say the mood of a culture can last longer than the 20ish year scheduled calendar idea of how long a turning lasts in theory.  The critical periods of the active turnings -- awakenings and crises -- are brief.  Thus the moods of the less active turnings -- highs and unravellings -- extend long past where the generation borders suggest they should.

Anyway, it would be nice if we could refine the durations of various types of turnings and the key markers than indicate a transition has been made.  To me, it is more important to recognize that we haven't had a regeneracy, that the period of trial and error major transforming change hasn't arrived yet.

[Eric the Green]

(08-04-2016, 03:16 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(08-04-2016, 12:10 AM)MillsT_98 Wrote: What will happen if Hillary Clinton is elected president? I made this poll just like its parallel thread: "What would happen if Trump is elected president", with the same options.

1.  More wars of choice.
2. Lots of shitty trade deals like TPP, TPIP, etc. get enacted.
3. She and Bubba will get even more rich from more political connections.
4. The White House becomes another tryst site for Bubba.

Those are the things that are NOT going to happen, but that people (who are not on the right-wing) SAY will happen because they aren't listening and don't like the Hillary cartoon. As was said, this is not the 3T, and it's not the right place on the Jupiter cycle for another war either. We just passed the cycle in 2013-2014 when we went to war against the IS and started messing around in Syria. Even Americans and their presidents need a break before the cycle comes around again. btw, That should be reassuring even if Trump is elected. Whether you believe in astrology or not, that's how the world works. As usual, kinser does not have a clue about that, or about what's happening. But in any case, if you want to know "what's going to happen," astrology is indispensable. That's where I come in

I don't know what a tryst site is. But brower got it right, I think. It will be 2019, though, before I can predict the 2020 election with greater certainty. It will depend on who the candidates are.

The "regeneracy" seems to be a gradual ramping up of energy this time, as in the civil war turning. That's what I predicted, and that's what's happening. You don't get much more than a muddle as long as Neptune is in Pisces. You gets lots of people getting in boats and moving around. Lots of passion and no ability to resolve anything. That won't change too much under Hillary and Ryan. The regeneracy will not be in full swing until the 4T is almost over. Just like in 1860, which was the climax of the civil war 4T that began around 1848-1850. But things will get moving more swiftly and constructively after the 2020 election. It's hard even to conceive that, given the retrograde attitude and behavior of the Americans and their toleration for gerrymandering and the other inconceivable relics of the past that they hang on to. But once a 4T gets really moving and reaches toward its climax, we don't know for sure just how far the changes will go. But major revisions in our system and maybe even our borders seem almost certain in 2025-29.

Another thing I don't get is the fuss about her not having press conferences. Has any candidate other than Trump ever run for president that way? Not that I recall.

[playwrite]

At the most apparent level, not much is going to happen. Even with Dems taking the Senate and Clinton in the WH, the gridlock will likely continue on any domestic issues. On the foreign affairs front, I expect her to play the game at least as well as Obama - that doesn't mean there will not be big problems along the way, but she will not try to deal with them by tweet storms.

At a deeper level, she'll change the SCOTUS for the next several decades. And that will change everything.

[Bob Butler 54]

To me, the critical question for the hypothetical Clinton 45 presidency is how badly Trump messes up the Republicans.  Can he possibly disrupt the GOP to the point where the Democrats can break filibusters?  Obama's problem has never been coming up with progressive ideas to fight the Robber Baron dominated Republicans, it's been getting his ideas through Congress.  Trump is messing up the Republican unity big time, and more than a few thinking Republicans will be shifting to Hillary, but Trump would really really have to be very Trumped up to give a supermajority Congress to the Democrats.

It almost seems like that's what Trump is trying to do.  No one shoots himself in the foot quite as often as Trump does unless he is aiming for his foot.

[Eric the Green]

Looking back at successful one-term presidents, we come to James K Polk; Polk the purposeful. Both Hillary and Polk are/were Scorpios. Different purposes, but Hillary may well accomplish some of her goals, but not run again. Polk even died soon after not running. Both are 4T-era prophet generation members too. I note that Polk accomplished his goal of conquest, but that it brought us into the ramp up to the civil war because of the controversy over slavery in new states.

[Ragnarök_62]

(08-04-2016, 01:18 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [quote pid='6677' dateline='1470298611']
What will happen if Hillary Clinton is elected president? I made this poll just like its parallel thread: "What would happen if Trump is elected president", with the same options.

1.  More wars of choice.
2. Lots of shitty trade deals like TPP, TPIP, etc. get enacted.
3. She and Bubba will get even more rich from more political connections.
4. The White House becomes another tryst site for Bubba.

...

Quote:Those are the things that are NOT going to happen, but that people (who are not on the right-wing) SAY will happen because they aren't listening and don't like the Hillary cartoon. carton.

There, I fixed it for you. Sorry, I like my hand so I'm sticking.   Hillery = carton of sour milk which is yucky.

Quote: As was said, this is not the 3T, and it's not the right place on the Jupiter cycle for another war either. We just passed the cycle in 2013-2014 when we went to war against the IS and started messing around in Syria.

but, but that mess is ongoing and I'm saying it ain't stopping.

Quote:Even Americans and their presidents need a break before the cycle comes around again. btw, That should be reassuring even if Trump is elected. Whether you believe in astrology or not, that's how the world works. As usual, kinser does not have a clue about that, or about what's happening. But in any case, if you want to know "what's going to happen," astrology is indispensable. That's where I come in

I have no idea how long that no war cycle lasts, but I'd prefer it last say 50 years.  I'm guessing it will take that long to clean up our filthy, filthy planet.  Just look at the water in Rio. It's awful, man.

Quote:I don't know what a tryst site is. But brower got it right, I think. It will be 2019, though, before I can predict the 2020 election with greater certainty. It will depend on who the candidates are.

You don't know what a tryst is?  Tryst means a sexual rendezvous.

Quote:The "regeneracy" seems to be a gradual ramping up of energy this time, as in the civil war turning. That's what I predicted, and that's what's happening. You don't get much more than a muddle as long as Neptune is in Pisces. You gets lots of people getting in boats and moving around. Lots of passion and no ability to resolve anything. That won't change too much under Hillary and Ryan. The regeneracy will not be in full swing until the 4T is almost over. Just like in 1860, which was the climax of the civil war 4T that began around 1848-1850. But things will get moving more swiftly and constructively after the 2020 election. It's hard even to conceive that, given the retrograde attitude and behavior of the Americans and their toleration for gerrymandering and the other inconceivable relics of the past that they hang on to. But once a 4T gets really moving and reaches toward its climax, we don't know for sure just how far the changes will go. But major revisions in our system and maybe even our borders seem almost certain in 2025-29.

This 4T should be about just fixing boring stuff like
1. Cyberspace security.  The lack of proper controls from vital infrastructure to corporate extranets/intranets is , well breath taking.  Again, this is just boring.  All data that can be used to commit identity theft should be encrypted.  John X has railed about that one for ages and he's right. It's also boring because everything connected to the internet that has a default password, needs to have that password changed to a secure one. I bet lots of corporate entities and government entities don't even have the passwords on their printers changed from the default one.

2. Moving from fossil fuels to renewables. This one is of course harder because of political messes. However, everyone must realize that fossil fuels are going to be needed to fabricate the renewable stuff. Windmills and solar cells don't come from Santa, man. Next, you gotta ensure that stuff is made here in the US because it's all vital and stuff and shouldn't come from China. Obviously, this agenda item is "Yuuuge" , so we can't let little details like Mideast kerfuffles get in the way of this big picture item.

3. Stop mindless consumption of polluting plastics/certain chemicals.  This is also "yuuuuge". If you drive by a landfill, you'll see it for yourself.  Lot's of white plastic grocery baggies and clear plastic bottles.  What you're really seeing is solid hydrocarbons which don't break down.  Some have endocrine disruptors like BPA.

4. You're gonna need some geekish sorta politicians who know what this shit is. Hmmm.... Vandal-72 for Idaho Congress!
Or Mikebert for Michigan Congress as well.   So. far fewer lawyers and far more scienciy types, man.  So, again, a more boring set of politicians.



and pthalates

Quote:Another thing I don't get is the fuss about her not having press conferences. Has any candidate other than Trump ever run for president that way? Not that I recall.

[/quote]


I never noticed the press conferences or lack thereof to be honest. Like I said, I've completely written off the MSM.  Sorry Eric, they don't do journalism, but are rather just mouthpieces for whatever.

[pbrower2a]

(08-04-2016, 12:40 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: First let me say that I highly doubt she will be elected.  Her post convention bump was far lower than Trump's, and her unfavorablity is growing, also it is quite likely she will not fare well in the debates.  Seriously Grouchy Commie Grandpa (Sanders) trounced her on a regular basis and he wasn't even really trying to hurt her.  Trump won't be nearly as nice, and HRC's reputation as being a hard as nails political animal negates her gynocentric advantage.

Furthermore she's been running as Obama's third term thus far.  As such it is likely that in the unlikely event that she is elected she will be an unsuccessful one term president.  That of course assumes she isn't forced out for corruption, high crimes and misdemeanors (and the GOP Congress will be looking to take her out...Hillary Hunting is their pastime) impeachment or even health factors.

All of that said in over 200 years of having presidents only one has resigned, and two impeached (both unsuccessfully) and as such I doubt that would resign unless there was a Nixion level scandal (though she does make her own drama and reaps that karma) or she has a stroke or something on national TV.

That said I think it is telling that she's not had a press conference in 243/4 days....not good....not good at all.

She will be elected President. The only question is now actuarial. The most likely entity to stop her from succeeding Barack Obama as President is the Grim Reaper.

At this point she is on par with where Barack Obama was on Election night, 2008. I'm not saying that she will win Indiana, but maybe she ends up with Arizona or Missouri instead. As late as early September 2008 the Presidential race looked close to even.

Obama won Florida by just under 4% in 2008 and just under 1% in 2012. Up 6%? Bill Clinton did that in 1996 when Ross Perot siphoned off lots of usual R voters. Maybe that happens this year. Carter won Florida by about 5%... when he won every former Confederate state except Virginia.

Seventeen states and the District of Columbia have not voted for a Republican Presidential nominee since at least 1988. You need remember that Hillary Clinton was shown up 11% in Pennsylvania, probably the shakiest of those states Michigan is up 9%. Those states and the District of Columbia hold 243 electoral votes between them. Florida has 20. 270 wins. Do the math.

The material for the negative campaigns is already in place. If you got sick of the "Willie Horton" ads in 1988, don't worry. The Clinton campaign has a variety this time. Negative ads work.  He has bad business dealings, bankruptcies, and preferential hiring of foreigners (even if they come on H1B visas to be hotel staff). He has stiffed contractors. He has shown admiration of nasty dictators -- like Satan Hussein.

...As for Congress taking her out -- one pollster has the generic ballot for Congress at 49-41. Because of gerrymandering, Democrats need to win about 54-46 in House elections overall to win back the House. Republicans have lots of brittle targets in the Senate.

Democrats solved almost all their problems in their Convention. Republicans got through a formality and otherwise solved nothing.

[Kinser79]

Well since I'm essentially ignoring Playdude's existance...primarily due to the fact that talking to him is like talking to a brick wall (only the wall is more intelligent, and also more well researched), and since Odin has little more than insults to fling about I'm going to address a point brought up by Bob.

The clockwork theory of S&H is quite wrong and one should look at the way society is headed. However, there are other factors in play at the present time. The Megasaeculum and the Microturnings. At present we are in a Mega-Unraveling which means that the whole saeculum has been one of stagnation from the 1T all the way to the present day. If one adds to that the concept of microturnings and that there is a period within the general turning (the ones S&H describe) where the mood of that turning stalls, we are clearly in the unraveling of that turning.

The simple fact of the matter is that the Regressive Left doesn't like the way the micro-awakening turned out. They were rejected, and the Reaganite (which includes the Clintons, yes both of them) establishment from the 3T must be destroyed. As HRC is the personification of that establishment she will as a consequence be destroyed. Her physical decay is as inevitable as her political decay, but I think the political decay will happen far sooner.

Should HRC be elected, that will actually stall the microturning, it will frustrate the momentum of the country, and it will make the person who comes after Trump that much worse. Instead of someone is kinda, sorta, maybe if you look at everything through an ultra-left pc lens proto-fascist, we'd end up with an actual fascist.

Orlov tells us that those things which must collapse ultimately will collapse, that smaller collapses are less severe than larger collapses and that more frequent collapses are less severe than more infrequent collapses. As such I have every reason to believe that should HRC be elected she may be able to hold back the tide for 4 years (if she's really skilled--I'd argue she isn't but whatever) but what follows will be more severe, of longer duration and will almost certainly result in a muted, less high like resolution (since I hate calling 1Ts 'highs').

[Eric the Green]

(08-04-2016, 06:26 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: There, I fixed it for you. Sorry, I like my hand so I'm sticking.   Hillery = carton of sour milk which is yucky.

No No! It's now been cultivated by Bernie bacteria. It's Greek Yogurt!

Hey, I think I'll have some right now



HEY! Much better than Trump steaks!

Quote: (Eric)

As was said, this is not the 3T, and it's not the right place on the Jupiter cycle for another war either. We just passed the cycle in 2013-2014 when we went to war against the IS and started messing around in Syria.

Quote: (Rags)

but, but that mess is ongoing and I'm saying it ain't stopping.

I'm the prophet, though. I say it has a chance of stopping, maybe not permanently, next year, and whoever Hill nominates as Secretary of State will be the catalyst.

However, even if not, that is not a war of choice, because the choice was already made in 2014 when Jupiter was in Cancer. Another choice won't be made until the next time Jupiter comes to Gemini or Cancer around 2025.

Quote:I have no idea how long that no war cycle lasts, but I'd prefer it last say 50 years.  I'm guessing it will take that long to clean up our filthy, filthy planet.  Just look at the water in Rio. It's awful, man.

Too bad the planets don't move in response to our preferences.

Quote:You don't know what a tryst is?  Tryst means a sexual rendezvous.

OK, I thought so, given the context in which you used the word. But, I think Bill is too old now for that, and he's less attractive now because he's less powerful as First Man than as President or Governor.

Quote:4. You're gonna need some geekish sorta politicians who know what this shit is. Hmmm.... Vandal-72 for Idaho Congress!
Or Mikebert for Michigan Congress as well.   So. far fewer lawyers and far more scienciy types, man.  So, again, a more boring set of politicians.

Well, not vandal; he's an idiot. Mikebert I can buy.

Who do you think is way more geekish-- Hillary, or Donald? That's an EASY one! And boring! That's an easy call too!

But, the saeculum doesn't move according to our desires either. 4Ts are not boring. So, enjoy the shake-up!

Quote:I never noticed the press conferences or lack thereof to be honest. Like I said, I've completely written off the MSM.  Sorry Eric, they don't do journalism, but are rather just mouthpieces for whatever.

Thank goodness I can go to you tube and enjoy John Oliver, Seth Myers and Bill Maher!

The MSM are mouthpieces for their sponsors. Entertainment sells. Crime, sex, spectacles, wars, etc. News doesn't. Notice how often David Muir says things like "Stay tuned and watch THIS! This is an amazing sight.... you're not gonna want to miss THIS! Right after this message....." Spectacle. So.......... that's what we get from them........

[MillsT_98]

(08-04-2016, 12:41 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(08-04-2016, 11:37 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Are you at all aware we are now well within the 4T? You and Rags, with your dated worn out 3T scripts. Sheeesh!

We have not yet had a regeneracy.  Over use of the filibuster has prevented either side from instigating the major changes and trial and error period where the new culture is invented and given a test drive.

Those who are more into a clockwork and generation based interpretation of S&H can look at generation boundaries and see that we should in theory be in crisis mode.  I judge less by the calendar and more by how the society is working.  We're still in stagnation and endless debate mode.  We are not in transformation and change mode.

The books don't clearly define the 3T 4T border, not to my satisfaction at least.  They suggest we can go 4T before the regeneracy.  I'm not entirely happy with this.  S&H weren't entirely consistent in identifying where the boundary is.  Is it the big military catalyst, the Pearl Harbor, Fort Sumpter or Lexington / Concord and the following full mobilization?  Is it the election of the guy who will eventually be recognized as the Grey Champion, along with a Congress that will follow his lead?  Is it the publication of a transforming document, like the Declaration of Independence?

S&H weren't consistent in this.  I suspect they chose whatever event came closest to where their generation borders lined up.

This is in part an argument of definition, a disagreement on the meaning of words.  As such it is fairly trivial.  I personally am uncomfortable saying we are 8 years into a crisis and have not yet hit the regeneracy.  To me, it feels like we are still in stagnant disagreement.  Our politics are 3T politics.

Also, S&H turnings last a generation, on the order of 20 years.  The peak years of a crises or awakenings are shorter.  The intensity and fervor of the religious Great Awakening and Second Great Awakening couldn't be sustained for more than a few years.  The Summer of Love centered a similar period of only a few years when flower power was in full flower.  Similarly, it takes about four years for the United States to fully mobilize, learn how wars have to be fought given new technology, then crush any military opposition.  Crisis wars run about half a decade.  Thus it is plausible to say the mood of a culture can last longer than the 20ish year scheduled calendar idea of how long a turning lasts in theory.  The critical periods of the active turnings -- awakenings and crises -- are brief.  Thus the moods of the less active turnings -- highs and unravellings -- extend long past where the generation borders suggest they should.

Anyway, it would be nice if we could refine the durations of various types of turnings and the key markers than indicate a transition has been made.  To me, it is more important to recognize that we haven't had a regeneracy, that the period of trial and error major transforming change hasn't arrived yet.

I read in Generations that the "social moments" during the 2T and the 4T eras last about 10 years or so. So they're not actually as long as the turnings themselves. I think the next social moment could start next year, or maybe later if the regeneracy takes longer to build. I think we're already in the 4T, but according to Generations, we are still in a very long "inner-driven era".

[Kinser79]

(08-04-2016, 06:49 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(08-04-2016, 12:40 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: First let me say that I highly doubt she will be elected.  Her post convention bump was far lower than Trump's, and her unfavorablity is growing, also it is quite likely she will not fare well in the debates.  Seriously Grouchy Commie Grandpa (Sanders) trounced her on a regular basis and he wasn't even really trying to hurt her.  Trump won't be nearly as nice, and HRC's reputation as being a hard as nails political animal negates her gynocentric advantage.

Furthermore she's been running as Obama's third term thus far.  As such it is likely that in the unlikely event that she is elected she will be an unsuccessful one term president.  That of course assumes she isn't forced out for corruption, high crimes and misdemeanors (and the GOP Congress will be looking to take her out...Hillary Hunting is their pastime) impeachment or even health factors.

All of that said in over 200 years of having presidents only one has resigned, and two impeached (both unsuccessfully) and as such I doubt that would resign unless there was a Nixion level scandal (though she does make her own drama and reaps that karma) or she has a stroke or something on national TV.

That said I think it is telling that she's not had a press conference in 243/4 days....not good....not good at all.

She will be elected President. The only question is now actuarial. The most likely entity to stop her from succeeding Barack Obama as President is the Grim Reaper.

At this point she is on par with where Barack Obama was on Election night, 2008. I'm not saying that she will win Indiana, but maybe she ends up with Arizona or Missouri instead. As late as early September 2008 the Presidential race looked close to even.  

Obama won Florida by just under 4% in 2008 and just under 1% in 2012. Up 6%? Bill Clinton did that in 1996 when Ross Perot siphoned off lots of usual R voters. Maybe that happens this year. Carter won Florida by about 5%... when he won every former Confederate state except Virginia.

Seventeen states and the District of Columbia have not voted for a Republican Presidential nominee since at least 1988. You need remember that Hillary Clinton was shown up 11% in Pennsylvania, probably the shakiest of those states Michigan is up 9%. Those states and the District of Columbia hold 243 electoral votes between them. Florida has 20. 270 wins. Do the math.

The material for the negative campaigns is already in place. If you got sick of the "Willie Horton" ads in 1988, don't worry. The Clinton campaign has a variety this time. Negative ads work.  He has bad business dealings, bankruptcies, and preferential hiring of foreigners (even if they come on H1B visas to be hotel staff). He has stiffed contractors. He has shown admiration of nasty dictators -- like Satan Hussein.

...As for Congress taking her out -- one pollster has the generic ballot for Congress at 49-41. Because of gerrymandering, Democrats need to win about 54-46 in House elections overall to win back the House. Republicans have lots of brittle targets in the Senate.

Democrats solved almost all their problems in their Convention. Republicans got through a formality and otherwise solved nothing.

You're forgetting several factors:

1.  The Greens while not on the ballot in every state are on the ballot in most states.  The only third party that can claim more states are the Libertarians and honestly they never get more than 1% and are unlikely to get 2% if all the #NeverTrump clowns try to flood into that party.  There simply isn't enough of them, were there, they would have won the GOP primaries.

2.  Negative ads do work.  Trump has more than enough material for his own, and he has more than enough of his own money and donations to roll out his own ads.  That said, negative ads work by supressing the vote, which historically does NOT favor Democrats.  Given the hundreds of scandals HRC has been in, and the relatively little dirt there is on Daddy (cause seriously were there real dirt they'd used it by now--hell the Establishment GOP would have used it) I hope HRC goes negative she'd end up shooting herself in the foot that way.

3.  At current some 20% of Sanders supporters are lining up behind Trump.  If we can get this up to 25% or even 30% the Obama coalition would start to break apart.  The cracks are already showing seeing as the Dems had to fix their own primaries with the help of MSM acting as their do-boys to block Sanders (and under normal conditions he shouldn't have had a snowball's chance in Hades).

4.  At present Trump's got the Panhandle and Miami locked in for FL.  Only the I-4 makes FL a contention state, and we are putting a lot of effort in down here.  DC is going to be blue, but PA and OH are likely to turn red this time round.  IN won't be going blue--2008 was a fluke due to the October Surprise that happened that year (which wasn't really a surprise to anyone who was actually watching the economy).  Further HRC's VP pick was purposely done to retain VA as a blue state....unfortunately for her Kaine is pretty much hated in VA.

5.  The only polls that matter are the ones that open in November.  Goldenboy of '08 and '12 Nate Silver has been making a lot of wrong predictions this year.  Methinks  he is an inverse indicator this year.  That is to say that his track record this cycle has been so consistently bad that betting against his prediction is the more prudent course.